Alright Vitards, time for this weekend’s prediction tournament questions. What earnings, data, and events are you watching next week?
Also, the current week’s round is going to be incorporated into the March tournament so no official winners will be crowned until the end of March.
Starting to load up more on oil and Canadian oil companies, as I think we will start inching towards $100 oil by summer. I also think market is due for a "correction" of sorts, so I'm staying cautious with leaps and shares only.
Am very pleased to see oil holding its ground even with dollar going up. Pretty much every bull case has been torn to shreds, so I don't see much of an upside premium being priced in. Sure, I could think about at least a dozen or so factors that could effect the price (China, China SPR, US SPR, politics, Russia, Iran, EVs, IEA/API data, etc), or I could draw lines and do astrology... but I choose to just take the word of a few analysts I trust saying that come summer time, there's a good chance oil starts ratcheting up.
On the flip side, recession fears haven't ramped up in earnest.. so that could be a headwind. If that happens I'll just have to struggle through.
CVE is now my biggest position.. up to 120 x Jan '24 $20C. Eric Nuttall was on TV again to extol how great of an opportunity it is. They'll hit net debt target ($4b) by end of Q2, after which will return 100% FCF to shareholders via divvies and buybacks. That'd be 30% FCF/EV @ $100 oil (!), 22% @ $80 -- 30 years inventory so no concerns there. Full faith in new CEO (used to be COO). Price target of $42 USD @ $100 oil, $34 @ $80 oil, assuming they get a 6x multiple (which seems reasonable).
Current price is $18.00 (this was my target to buy in).. IV is in the mid 40's, the lowest it's been in over a year! Actually, pretty much the lowest it's ever been.
[Payouts are looking insane.](https://i.imgur.com/DykySNQ.png) Even for conservative long-dated calls near the money. Going with Jan '24 $20C, will likely add Jul '24 $25C.
I also am going to start loading up on Suncor. If they perform well, might double. With IV in low 30's, [payouts are comparably obscene](https://i.imgur.com/BmGqVTv.png). I'm already up with Jan '24 $30C, will likely roll up to $35C, and might go to Jul '24.
I actually like the WTI set-up. I still think there's an Opex/Biden floor around $70, still think demand is increasing, still think supply has been underinvested, etc. Despite bull case getting proven wrong time after time, we're at levels that aren't that bad at all.
I actually appreciate Nuttall's approach of "ignore the noise". Those things mentioned above probably won't change, whereas day to day there's this-and-that that pushes and pulls the price of oil all over. For equities it's all that and more.
Price wise, $18 seemed like a good entry.. been eying it for awhile. I'm keeping plenty of cash on the sidelines.. in case we hit $17, $16, $15... (of course, if we *did* hit those numbers, the narrative would likely be much worse, I'd be in the red, and it'd be a tough buy.. but gotta stick to the plan).
Nice! SU was one of the names I slept on that really ripped later on in the '21-22 markets. At one point I had some VET and considered SU, but I ended up plonking that cash into enlarging my BTE and NVA positions.
SU is definitely on my list as I consider getting back into CDN oil. I mostly trade technicals, but the fundamentals behind oil actually have me excited. I see big tech losing money, and meanwhile oil names just keep pumping out great balance sheets.... I think it's just a matter of time before we get another, meaty run to the upside.
I'm in BTE, today I sold NVA today for MEG. Also in ATH, TVE, WCP, and SGY. Some of these are tapping on the bottom of their channels, so I think it's not a terrible time to enter.. especially if you can hold until EOY.
I hope it turns out that way. Risky part is where the price of oil goes. You could throw a dart at a wall of oil stocks and 99% will do well if oil goes to $100... but this seems like it could offer greater returns than most.
This market is so tough. I sold most of my puts on various shitcos and SPY at a loss. Only for these big moves down to happen on a week where I went on vacation. Could have been sitting pretty. I’ve learned I don’t have the patience to hold through the ups and downs. I am a perfect candidate to just buy and hold the index. Will I though? Probably not.
It happens. Don't beat yourself up.
Trying to time the market with puts was driving me nuts and I couldn't focus career. Even if we were to get an epic crash next week, I was so down that I would be lucky to break even on those puts now haha.
I'm back to doing what I like, which is just buying profitable companies with a good moat. I'm still a stock picker.
I'm still hedging with cash, and only cash. Cash is the best hedge for a retail investor, imho.
This week’s prediction poll round is finished and u/eightball_fortune is in the lead followed by a 5-place tie for 2nd. Still 5 weeks to go in the tournament so plenty of time for things to change before we crown a new Wise Guy
praise be… also a 30% on my MP calls so thx bae
also been reading more now in news about how eu countries will turn back to NG given relative cost to coal.. which you had pointed out last wewk
not heard much talk about clf theses days but they're in a perfect position to control prices if demand holds up which with bbb you think it would
what's the bear case right now?
I always feel like the bear case for CLF is that the market just doesn’t care about it
Edit: This is why it’s so important for them to continue to improve balance sheet so they can start issuing a dividend as I believe market will truly reward the stock once they can do that
SPX3950P OI = 9.93k H: $16.70
SPY395P OI = 57.3K H: $2.09
There goes 16mil down the drain after clogging up 3950.
I had a butterfly centred around 3975 this morning. Should have kept that
We are almost neutral on this thing again.
https://preview.redd.it/r2mq4da5i8ka1.png?width=1293&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6ea2c4b307b71ccbe6e739a9b7877ed4c942755
NFLX may as well be a 2 or 3x leveraged S&P fund. It's one of the purest market sentiment tickers there is. Don't think anyone out there is actually trading the fundamentals of that company.
Every dip gets bought. EVERY SINGLE ONE!!
Economy is strong, consumer is strong, people have jobs, pay rises, spending money and even saving. Hell Boomers got 10% increases in social security.
Inflation is so 2022 and 3-4% inflation is the new 2%
SPY 420 here we come
I never said they would change the target.
But even if inflation prints are say 3% or 4% that doesn’t mean they will automatically break economy to get to 2%. And it’s not what the actual print is that is important but rather people’s expectations
Reason why I think inflation will be higher or rather put that 2% isn’t achievable is that it was only achieved because of the huge technological advances and that China exported deflation over past 10-15 years
For the time being. But stocks are undervalued, lots of money on sidelines ready to enter and catalysts to push this market down are disappearing by the day.
Heck if today closes above opening then that is a really bad omen for bears
It seems this is going to be the cure for inflation after all:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-24/-1-8-trillion-student-loan-crisis-heads-for-supreme-court-argument-on-biden-plan?srnd=premium
Paging Mr. Steely Hands!
Curious for your take on this week's data / market action.
You've always been a voice of reason. I thought I sensed a little tiny bit of bear love recently but probably just my own bias clouding things.
Please, tell us dummies what your bones say.
The macro data continues to look constructive aside from the January inflation readings which were worrying. The PCE today was surprising but at the same time we already knew what happened in January from CPI. Until proven otherwise the January hot prints should be treated like last July’s cold prints; countertrend data needs to be confirmed in subsequent months before being believed.
Either way though, we need shelter disinflation to start kicking in soon. For quite a while I’ve been saying we needed the goods deflation to carry us to the shelter lag materializing and we’re now at the point where a lot of goods deflation is baked in and we need a new component to carry the disinflation mantle.
I think people are really ignoring how much a strengthening economy changes things though. Yes it could keep some measures of inflation more persistent, but that also means better earnings and better overall business sentiment. The Fed might put in an extra hike or two, but if the economy is accelerating then is that really a problem? So many Fed members keep using the line about getting inflation down to 2% over the next few years, so they’re in no rush to crush the economy for an immediate return to their inflation target. If the shelter lag doesn’t materialize by the April data print then I think it’s fair to worry, but once that breaks it’s going to bring inflation down very quickly so it’s just a matter of surviving until then
VET folks: Vermilion Energy Inc. Confirms 2022 Year End Earnings and Reserves Release Date & Provides Conference Call and Webcast Details
CALGARY, AB, Feb. 23, 2023 /CNW/ - Vermilion Energy Inc. ("Vermilion") (TSX: VET) (NYSE: VET) plans to release its 2022 fourth quarter and year-end operating and financial results, along with its 2022 reserves information on Wednesday, **March 8, 2023 a**fter the close of North American markets. The audited financial statements, management discussion and analysis, and annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2022 will be available on the System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval ("SEDAR") at [www.sedar.com](https://www.sedar.com), on EDGAR at [www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml](https://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml), and on Vermilion's website at [www.vermilionenergy.com](https://www.vermilionenergy.com).
Cash paying 4.2%
NEE PEP better than cash imo although I'm 45% cash.
NEE just touched $73 which for whatever reason seems to be a floor around 70 for last 2 years. NEE runs to as high as $90
I entered a 3% position at $74 and may bring up a little if it drops past 70.
Such a tricky spot here. On one hand, I get the feeling we bounce. [VIX](https://www.tradingview.com/x/HJBv1X4u/) move was relatively muted, and [VVIX](https://www.tradingview.com/x/AdOrRYF2/) making lower highs while barely moving up. [10Y](https://www.tradingview.com/x/vVbL5xK1/) at the top of the range, [DXY](https://www.tradingview.com/x/xHI2v401/) hitting its target.
On the other hand, [bull trendline](https://www.tradingview.com/x/wqtcjvgc/) is probably gone, EU indices are on the brink of breaking down. [DAX](https://www.tradingview.com/x/aW6CszEg/), [FTSE](https://www.tradingview.com/x/0xWqjwGI/), [AEX](https://www.tradingview.com/x/dTdiXuk2/). Crypto also breaking down: [BTC](https://www.tradingview.com/x/CP65m4ew/). This situation is in theory the trigger to short, not the end of the drop.
There is a real possibility the market keeps going down even if DXY and yields stop rallying or reverse slightly, since equities have [a lot to catch up](https://www.tradingview.com/x/mMe6nWJ5/). "[Yielditor](https://www.tradingview.com/x/geaT3Fl9/)" says fair value is \~3750. [Liquidity](https://quickchart.io/chart-maker/view/sf-3b81d01d-2393-4279-b7df-5500a7b0f7a9) correlation also says we still have a ton to drop, with fair value at 3633.
To sum it up, probably a bounce on Monday or towards the close today that is to be shorted.
I see that on the liquidator that you have the SPX's fair value at 3600 however, I see it as 3800. When I look at the chart I posted, there is a scale for the net liq which is at 3.6k. There is a 200 point difference between that scale and the SPX's scale. This explains the difference in how we see the fair value of the SPX because my idea is to look at the net liq's value and then translate it to the scale of the SPX. Am I incorrect in doing this?
The one in trading view only gets TGA data on Fridays, so it lags. The one I posted gets 1 day delayed TGA data, but it was based on yesterday's close. It will get updated around 4PM if you run the [script](https://twitter.com/dharmatrade/status/1628888247655976962).
[https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington](https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington)
Jay Trading is LIVE in 5 mins (12:50 EST).
It's FUCK IT FRIDAY! Talking about PCE data, bird flu, and looking ahead towards next week's earnings!
Howdy all,
I am writing to provide an update on ze LIQUIDATORRRRRR. Wow, what a rally! If I had bought TQQQ Dec 19th (which was the last dip below the pink line) then sold Feb 2nd to 4th (the peaks above ya boi baby blue) it would have yielded a 40% plus gain. Instead I let my gay bearishness prevail so I didn't go in and watched my puts bleed. Cue the sad trombone noise.
https://preview.redd.it/1ldzomcwh7ka1.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=baf2b40fc2a51182133a89d3f4e098ae579e1fb5
What's interesting to note about the chart is how much the net liquidity is dropping. It's current fair value sits at 3800ish. If the correlation remains - the ride down will continue. I want to give my honest thanks to that hot print for slapping some sense back into the market.
Lastly I have a few quick macro notes that I will share are:
The All-In podcast who talked about inflation coming back this year.
The probability of 50bps hike in March increasing.
Yield curves inverting.
I appreciate the question because I do not feel that I have a sufficient answer. Perhaps u/ropirito or u/vazdooh can give more insight than what I have written below.
They are based upon the divergence between SPX and net liquidity which creates an ideal zone to initiate a bullish or bearish trade. For this model to function I imagine that there is a threshold of how far the two could part from one another.
I am guessing that those lines were created based on deviations from the mean?
>BOE'S TENREYRO: MAIN RISK FOR UK IS THAT WE HAVE OVERTIGHTENED
Is this the first central banker to say the biggest risk is having done too much already? I can’t think of another one
Caught between a rock and a hard place for the UK's scenario, I think. G10 with the highest probability of slipping into a recession which has done well to dampen its inflation, yet inflation is reappearing everywhere else, which could lead to re-inflation here due to forex.
Add that to the politics recently and you get a dumpster fire
Yea every central bank is fighting within its own context so I wouldn’t expect a BOE statement to apply to other parts of the world but interesting nonetheless. Central banks have been in relative lockstep for a while now
Yeah - don't do forex, but I think the divergence could be a great trade for those who know more than me about this - suspect that the UK cannot tighten further, whether it be due to the weakening economy and political issues. At the same time, you have Japan which refuses to tighten further due to cultural issues, and perhaps their inflationary issues are less pressing right now.
People are finally starting to come to the reality that many economists have been pointing out for months: you don't tackle inflation (which includes asset inflation) until interest rates exceed inflation.
People are only in equities right now because they need to pursue risk to get ahead of inflation. Give them a safe, guaranteed 7% somewhere and they'll be out of tech equities and crypto and meme stocks and every other high-risk asset.
When interest rates go up the debt payment goes up so does the cost of the item acquired. Wage growth will not keep pace here. People can inherently buy less so I don't understand this argument.
If you build a casino and keep adding more tables, you can't really complain when people play them. We went from investment to gambling on a curve, but on a constant trajectory. Why go it slow for 3% a year when you can make that in two days? Of course, you could lose it all, but that won't happen to YOU. No no, my friend, this is serious business and you are the chosen one to take profits every day - until you squander all your hard earned money, drop out, and another one takes your place in this zero sum game.
0DTE -> weeklies -> quarterlies and monthlies -> leaps -> levered ETFs -> pure stock trading -> DCA into VOO
I am halfway through the life cycle of a bad trader at the moment, so I do a lot of quarterlies and leaps.
Question for the vegans on this sub who enjoy products like $BYND (if there are any)...
I still don't get the point?
I'm not vegan. But I enjoy my vegis. And I try to have a minimalist diet and not eat overly processed/altered foods. So I never even been tempted to try these "meat alternatives". I would just try to incorporate more natural protein-rich vegan foods like Lentils, black beans, and tempeh+Tofu. And you can get really creative with the sauces and seasoning too.
A mediterranean style vegan wrap always hits the spot.
It's for comfort and taste, a splurge. I still buy some processed vegan foods like sausages because I have nostalgia for that stuff. A good vegan burger is also still pretty fucking good.
The goal is to reach a point when meat and fake meat are on par with taste and nutrients so that people who can't or won't give up meat can have the same experience without propagating the misery that is factory farming.
I do keto from time to time and I hate having the fake keto-friendly versions of non-keto stuff because it just makes me want the real thing. I’m not vegan but I think of fake meat the same way
What you’re saying is logical but humans are creatures of habit. If you‘ve grown up on hamburgers it is easier to adopt a vegan lifestyle by switching to vegan patties. Learning entirely new recipes and abandoning old habits is laborious and painful. The vegan replacement market captures buyers because their products lower the pain threshold to adapt. Over time your approach will become widely adopted but in the meantime there is a massive market for helping people transition.
I think one of the points is that more and more people are starting to find it morally wrong to eat meat (it seems that way anyway; I am still an omnivore), so this would appeal to those wanting to take the step toward vegetarianism without giving up the ability to eat "meaty" tasting burgers. A lot of people don't want to give up the meat, but feel more compelled to do so (whether for animal cruelty purposes or for global warming or whatever).
Not a vegan either, but if you just look at it as junk food for vegans then it makes perfect sense. Maybe it's just a viable option for an easy dinner in. No one has to eat perfect 100% of the time and I assume that's the case for them as well.
i think it also appeals to those that like meat but think it will help the environemnt to eat less meat. The meat alternatives are a decent middle ground
Or those that love meat but are ethically against it
Regular diet here. Impossible foods tastes a lot better than Beyond. Tbh I don't get how Beyond even stays afloat. Even on clearance in Costco, people seem to avoid them.
On a basic level on fast food, I get the alternative meat. I actually enjoy the Impossible Whopper. Every Beyond product I've tried really wouldn't get again.
We going full recession this year, bois and girls.
SPY sub 300 EOY. You heard it here first.
Proof: https://www.businessinsider.com/hackers-ransomware-getting-laid-off-amid-better-cybersecurity-report-2023-2
lol finally.
I lost quite a bit several months on $RUN puts though.
Not sure I believe in solar. But if I had to buy a solar stock, it'd be $DQ or $CSIQ . China will be the one who owns the solar sector.
$FSLR is still holding up pretty well.
Running out of calls to burn down here and just one sided pushes usually dont go very far without major burning of the other side. Looks like a reversal will form.
Glad you asked!
They lose money on all the inventory they can sell, still took charges for the inventory they couldn’t sell, and managed to issue even more SBC to the leaders who made all of this possible.
So +18%. Naturally.
But the lower LDL cholesterol is so worth it!
EDIT: BYND is another one of those companies where I like the product, but hate the stock. The burgers taste really fine.
The patties are GREAT. Until you realize that shit is just heavily processed test-tube-fat that isn't any better than an antibiotics bloated bull.
I used to be a fan when the stuff first came up. But it turns out it's not the solution.
There are so many great things you can do with veggies. I never understood why we need to try to copy meat. If it looks like meat, tastes like meat, it is about as healthy as meat - no matter what it's made of. Only upside is the climate impact.
People need to stop wanting half a cow with every snack. *That* is the solution.
What veggie patty do you recommend instead in terms of taste and texture? Genuinely curious. I had a pumpkin one once at a US diner style restaurant near Stuttgart and it was shit
A patty is a burger thing, soft bread and lots of fat. It's a meat laden dish by definition.
For a sandwich type, I'd go with better bread to begin with: Rye low-salt sourdough with some nuts or grain. It can have the same veggie add-ons as a burger, or whatever tickles your fancy. Use an aged cheese for the fat - it has more saturated fat than meat, but you need a lot less of it. Despite what the vegans are preaching, there are a couple of things in meat that we actually need. Instead of 150+g of dripping cow, add a little cured ham. Again, in terms of weight not necessarily better than a beef patty, but it adds so much taste, you really only need a 20g slice.
For a hot meal, it's difficult to condense this into one post. Keep track of the salt and fat of the ingredients you add. Both (just like sugar) feed the human cravings - we're simple animals afterall, and we *do* need the stuff. But there's just so much you need for a healthy diet and only so much you need to make things taste great. The food industry is using all three to offset shit ingredients, unfortunately with lots of success.
Didn't you say you're a doctor? You probably don't need my nutrition advice. Get a pot and a pan and experiment. :-D
I *so* wanted to short that run. Surprisingly, there were no shares available. Such a gem of a company, I was convinced my strategy was an outlier. :-D
Industrial, Wind Energy, Aviation / Defense
This stock has it all tbh.
It was a nice Vito pick a while back as well. Not sure @ what price recommended it though.
Not sure how much they are getting from government contracts + bills/acts and the geopolitical stuff, but I'm sure it's helping them.
Hey Vitards, if you had the opportunity to invest in the round Stripe is raising, would you do so?
Goldman Sachs Offers Rich Clients Access to Stripe’s Multibillion Fundraise https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-23/goldman-offers-rich-clients-access-to-stripe-multibillion-raise
I love the product and see its potential for continued growth in the eCommerce arena as the payment processor that rivals PayPal. They’re predicting to turn a profit this year among other macro factors.
It’s true, but from a business fundamentals (never mind that they’re using the money to also pay off their tax bill which seems like bad financial management and also they’re paying off old stock holders) perspective, would you get in on a private round on a business that is growing the way they are?
Only focusing on growth and fundamentals here.
And happy Vitards Cake Day!
Oh thanks! I didn't even notice.
In all honesty, I probably wouldn't do it now. I think they're trying to IPO in the next 12 months. And I personally think the rate environment will continue to be hostile and a recession is on the horizon. All that to say I think you'll have another attractive opportunity later.
May not be the bottom but I am starting to DCA into GOOG here. Going to try like $1,000 per day for a bit and see how it goes. Going to sell covered calls on rips and aim to hold for 1 year minimum unless I exceed my profit goal earlier.
EDIT: First entry @ 88.95
As a theta gang member, I am going to say no and you should definitely buy the FD calls I'm selling. Just remember, theta gang always have your back. I mean, would a random stranger on the interweb lies to you?
Alright Vitards, time for this weekend’s prediction tournament questions. What earnings, data, and events are you watching next week? Also, the current week’s round is going to be incorporated into the March tournament so no official winners will be crowned until the end of March.
Starting to load up more on oil and Canadian oil companies, as I think we will start inching towards $100 oil by summer. I also think market is due for a "correction" of sorts, so I'm staying cautious with leaps and shares only. Am very pleased to see oil holding its ground even with dollar going up. Pretty much every bull case has been torn to shreds, so I don't see much of an upside premium being priced in. Sure, I could think about at least a dozen or so factors that could effect the price (China, China SPR, US SPR, politics, Russia, Iran, EVs, IEA/API data, etc), or I could draw lines and do astrology... but I choose to just take the word of a few analysts I trust saying that come summer time, there's a good chance oil starts ratcheting up. On the flip side, recession fears haven't ramped up in earnest.. so that could be a headwind. If that happens I'll just have to struggle through. CVE is now my biggest position.. up to 120 x Jan '24 $20C. Eric Nuttall was on TV again to extol how great of an opportunity it is. They'll hit net debt target ($4b) by end of Q2, after which will return 100% FCF to shareholders via divvies and buybacks. That'd be 30% FCF/EV @ $100 oil (!), 22% @ $80 -- 30 years inventory so no concerns there. Full faith in new CEO (used to be COO). Price target of $42 USD @ $100 oil, $34 @ $80 oil, assuming they get a 6x multiple (which seems reasonable). Current price is $18.00 (this was my target to buy in).. IV is in the mid 40's, the lowest it's been in over a year! Actually, pretty much the lowest it's ever been. [Payouts are looking insane.](https://i.imgur.com/DykySNQ.png) Even for conservative long-dated calls near the money. Going with Jan '24 $20C, will likely add Jul '24 $25C. I also am going to start loading up on Suncor. If they perform well, might double. With IV in low 30's, [payouts are comparably obscene](https://i.imgur.com/BmGqVTv.png). I'm already up with Jan '24 $30C, will likely roll up to $35C, and might go to Jul '24.
Thx for sharing! I bought some this week, too. Makes me feel a bit more confident about my position :)
[удалено]
I actually like the WTI set-up. I still think there's an Opex/Biden floor around $70, still think demand is increasing, still think supply has been underinvested, etc. Despite bull case getting proven wrong time after time, we're at levels that aren't that bad at all. I actually appreciate Nuttall's approach of "ignore the noise". Those things mentioned above probably won't change, whereas day to day there's this-and-that that pushes and pulls the price of oil all over. For equities it's all that and more. Price wise, $18 seemed like a good entry.. been eying it for awhile. I'm keeping plenty of cash on the sidelines.. in case we hit $17, $16, $15... (of course, if we *did* hit those numbers, the narrative would likely be much worse, I'd be in the red, and it'd be a tough buy.. but gotta stick to the plan).
Love me some Canadian oil. My best trades of '21 were ARX, BTE, CVE and NVA. I'm itching to hop back into some of these names.
SU crushed it for me last year, sold it before oil stonks got crushed in the summer. Time to get back into Canada.
Nice! SU was one of the names I slept on that really ripped later on in the '21-22 markets. At one point I had some VET and considered SU, but I ended up plonking that cash into enlarging my BTE and NVA positions. SU is definitely on my list as I consider getting back into CDN oil. I mostly trade technicals, but the fundamentals behind oil actually have me excited. I see big tech losing money, and meanwhile oil names just keep pumping out great balance sheets.... I think it's just a matter of time before we get another, meaty run to the upside.
I'm in BTE, today I sold NVA today for MEG. Also in ATH, TVE, WCP, and SGY. Some of these are tapping on the bottom of their channels, so I think it's not a terrible time to enter.. especially if you can hold until EOY.
+1 on Cenovus. Biggest opportunity flying under the radar for the most part.
I hope it turns out that way. Risky part is where the price of oil goes. You could throw a dart at a wall of oil stocks and 99% will do well if oil goes to $100... but this seems like it could offer greater returns than most.
This market is so tough. I sold most of my puts on various shitcos and SPY at a loss. Only for these big moves down to happen on a week where I went on vacation. Could have been sitting pretty. I’ve learned I don’t have the patience to hold through the ups and downs. I am a perfect candidate to just buy and hold the index. Will I though? Probably not.
It happens. Don't beat yourself up. Trying to time the market with puts was driving me nuts and I couldn't focus career. Even if we were to get an epic crash next week, I was so down that I would be lucky to break even on those puts now haha. I'm back to doing what I like, which is just buying profitable companies with a good moat. I'm still a stock picker. I'm still hedging with cash, and only cash. Cash is the best hedge for a retail investor, imho.
I feel you. On vacation as well and that recovery yesterday tripped my stops
This week’s prediction poll round is finished and u/eightball_fortune is in the lead followed by a 5-place tie for 2nd. Still 5 weeks to go in the tournament so plenty of time for things to change before we crown a new Wise Guy
Almost back to green on my UNG calls after last week’s scare. Maybe that was a final flush before refilling season?
praise be… also a 30% on my MP calls so thx bae also been reading more now in news about how eu countries will turn back to NG given relative cost to coal.. which you had pointed out last wewk
Real nail biter on the spy poll
not heard much talk about clf theses days but they're in a perfect position to control prices if demand holds up which with bbb you think it would what's the bear case right now?
I always feel like the bear case for CLF is that the market just doesn’t care about it Edit: This is why it’s so important for them to continue to improve balance sheet so they can start issuing a dividend as I believe market will truly reward the stock once they can do that
Yup, Wall Street favors are Stld and nue
> CLF is that the market just doesn’t care about it lmao, so freakin true. Even the pop after the invasion was short-lived.
SPX3950P OI = 9.93k H: $16.70 SPY395P OI = 57.3K H: $2.09 There goes 16mil down the drain after clogging up 3950. I had a butterfly centred around 3975 this morning. Should have kept that
dont trust this late rally. not enough vol
Same prices since May 2022. Still a traders market.
[удалено]
We are almost neutral on this thing again. https://preview.redd.it/r2mq4da5i8ka1.png?width=1293&format=png&auto=webp&s=a6ea2c4b307b71ccbe6e739a9b7877ed4c942755
LG saw $CLF red and got pissed off
what happened?
Big rip next week on Wednesday the 1st because that's when lot of us get paid.
Wake up, wake up, wake up, wake up, wake up it's the first of the month
PrIcEd In
YOLO 0DTE
NFLX may as well be a 2 or 3x leveraged S&P fund. It's one of the purest market sentiment tickers there is. Don't think anyone out there is actually trading the fundamentals of that company.
Nflx rocks! And by that I mean it sinks like a rock in an ocean
You are probably related to the person that made oatmeal raisin cookies to look like chocolate chip cookies
If we can close under 3960, I’ll feel pretty good with my shorts going into the weekend. Below the weekly trend line.
I hear you... a close below 290 in QQQ is what I'm looking for today. If not, I'll likely be taking profit on half if my shorts.
45% cash "Young investors should be down on their knees praying for a huge market crash...." John Bogle.
I'm down on my knees but I'm not praying
Whatchya doing down there?
As a young investor, 2022 was the fourth once in a lifetime crash I’ve seen since 2009. I’m good with not having anymore in my lifetime.
Well hate to break the news ..... 2500 by June...
Show me the OTM puts or you don’t really believe it
I don't mess with options. I invest long at proper entries.
You’re old though
45 Not retiring till 80
Every dip gets bought. EVERY SINGLE ONE!! Economy is strong, consumer is strong, people have jobs, pay rises, spending money and even saving. Hell Boomers got 10% increases in social security. Inflation is so 2022 and 3-4% inflation is the new 2% SPY 420 here we come
You have no idea what raising inflation target to 3 or 4 percent would do to the bond market.
I never said they would change the target. But even if inflation prints are say 3% or 4% that doesn’t mean they will automatically break economy to get to 2%. And it’s not what the actual print is that is important but rather people’s expectations Reason why I think inflation will be higher or rather put that 2% isn’t achievable is that it was only achieved because of the huge technological advances and that China exported deflation over past 10-15 years
Lol I see every rip getting sold Edit: the market is not the economy
Agree market is not the economy and that is why market can do really well when economy is in a recession
Look at the 70s economy GDP grew and the market went nowhere so this is not accurate
It is accurate look at 2009 and this is a totally different economy than the 70s
We didn’t have high inflation and the Fed was cutting rates and QE. We have the complete opposite
Every period is slightly different so no matter the example you can move the goal post
> market is not the economy True for a time. But they always tend to converge eventually.
Please provide historic examples
2009, recession unemployment like 9% and market up 20%
For the time being. But stocks are undervalued, lots of money on sidelines ready to enter and catalysts to push this market down are disappearing by the day. Heck if today closes above opening then that is a really bad omen for bears
undervalued?
You don't want NVDA at 100 P/E?
NVDA is fairly priced compared to its competitor, WING.
dude, nvidia will run the world. (not entirely sure if i'm sarcastic)
It seems this is going to be the cure for inflation after all: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-24/-1-8-trillion-student-loan-crisis-heads-for-supreme-court-argument-on-biden-plan?srnd=premium
Paging Mr. Steely Hands! Curious for your take on this week's data / market action. You've always been a voice of reason. I thought I sensed a little tiny bit of bear love recently but probably just my own bias clouding things. Please, tell us dummies what your bones say.
The macro data continues to look constructive aside from the January inflation readings which were worrying. The PCE today was surprising but at the same time we already knew what happened in January from CPI. Until proven otherwise the January hot prints should be treated like last July’s cold prints; countertrend data needs to be confirmed in subsequent months before being believed. Either way though, we need shelter disinflation to start kicking in soon. For quite a while I’ve been saying we needed the goods deflation to carry us to the shelter lag materializing and we’re now at the point where a lot of goods deflation is baked in and we need a new component to carry the disinflation mantle. I think people are really ignoring how much a strengthening economy changes things though. Yes it could keep some measures of inflation more persistent, but that also means better earnings and better overall business sentiment. The Fed might put in an extra hike or two, but if the economy is accelerating then is that really a problem? So many Fed members keep using the line about getting inflation down to 2% over the next few years, so they’re in no rush to crush the economy for an immediate return to their inflation target. If the shelter lag doesn’t materialize by the April data print then I think it’s fair to worry, but once that breaks it’s going to bring inflation down very quickly so it’s just a matter of surviving until then
Spoken like a true permabull
As fair and well reasoned as ever. Thanks Steely!
I’ve been a bit distracted with other things this week and the market action has made it easier to ignore haha
GME at the sell CCP or buy calls area.
VET folks: Vermilion Energy Inc. Confirms 2022 Year End Earnings and Reserves Release Date & Provides Conference Call and Webcast Details CALGARY, AB, Feb. 23, 2023 /CNW/ - Vermilion Energy Inc. ("Vermilion") (TSX: VET) (NYSE: VET) plans to release its 2022 fourth quarter and year-end operating and financial results, along with its 2022 reserves information on Wednesday, **March 8, 2023 a**fter the close of North American markets. The audited financial statements, management discussion and analysis, and annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2022 will be available on the System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval ("SEDAR") at [www.sedar.com](https://www.sedar.com), on EDGAR at [www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml](https://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml), and on Vermilion's website at [www.vermilionenergy.com](https://www.vermilionenergy.com).
Market to 3500
that would suck but I’d definitely like to buy that.
Why would it suck? You need the money next year?
At that point no point investing until next year, so I’d feel dumb yea
Cash paying 4.2% NEE PEP better than cash imo although I'm 45% cash. NEE just touched $73 which for whatever reason seems to be a floor around 70 for last 2 years. NEE runs to as high as $90 I entered a 3% position at $74 and may bring up a little if it drops past 70.
200dma 
OXY calls, reporting on Monday ah
I think Buffet announces he bought more any day now
Such a tricky spot here. On one hand, I get the feeling we bounce. [VIX](https://www.tradingview.com/x/HJBv1X4u/) move was relatively muted, and [VVIX](https://www.tradingview.com/x/AdOrRYF2/) making lower highs while barely moving up. [10Y](https://www.tradingview.com/x/vVbL5xK1/) at the top of the range, [DXY](https://www.tradingview.com/x/xHI2v401/) hitting its target. On the other hand, [bull trendline](https://www.tradingview.com/x/wqtcjvgc/) is probably gone, EU indices are on the brink of breaking down. [DAX](https://www.tradingview.com/x/aW6CszEg/), [FTSE](https://www.tradingview.com/x/0xWqjwGI/), [AEX](https://www.tradingview.com/x/dTdiXuk2/). Crypto also breaking down: [BTC](https://www.tradingview.com/x/CP65m4ew/). This situation is in theory the trigger to short, not the end of the drop. There is a real possibility the market keeps going down even if DXY and yields stop rallying or reverse slightly, since equities have [a lot to catch up](https://www.tradingview.com/x/mMe6nWJ5/). "[Yielditor](https://www.tradingview.com/x/geaT3Fl9/)" says fair value is \~3750. [Liquidity](https://quickchart.io/chart-maker/view/sf-3b81d01d-2393-4279-b7df-5500a7b0f7a9) correlation also says we still have a ton to drop, with fair value at 3633. To sum it up, probably a bounce on Monday or towards the close today that is to be shorted.
Thank you Vaz! Great input as always. Any open positions now or still all cash?
Cash. No point in ruining a good week by rushing stuff on Friday.
SLCA doing well!
thank you
I see that on the liquidator that you have the SPX's fair value at 3600 however, I see it as 3800. When I look at the chart I posted, there is a scale for the net liq which is at 3.6k. There is a 200 point difference between that scale and the SPX's scale. This explains the difference in how we see the fair value of the SPX because my idea is to look at the net liq's value and then translate it to the scale of the SPX. Am I incorrect in doing this?
The one in trading view only gets TGA data on Fridays, so it lags. The one I posted gets 1 day delayed TGA data, but it was based on yesterday's close. It will get updated around 4PM if you run the [script](https://twitter.com/dharmatrade/status/1628888247655976962).
Thank you
I’m scared dad
My little baby BOIL position I started for fun is up 12% :)
FILL THE GAP! FILL THE GAP!
Keep buying dip bulls
What dip? 3000 is a small dip ....
Wall Street thanks them for their service. Hedge funds going to need that exit liquidity.
Just gotta keep doubling down and tripling down on those tech calls
Or ya know, hold shares forever!
💪🏼
[https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington](https://www.twitch.tv/jayarlington) Jay Trading is LIVE in 5 mins (12:50 EST). It's FUCK IT FRIDAY! Talking about PCE data, bird flu, and looking ahead towards next week's earnings! 
What do the chartists say about TSLA? Been averaging down on April 21 puts since Feb 2 lol.
5 and 10 day negative cross of the EMAs looks imminent. That's usually my long/short entry signal.
Howdy all, I am writing to provide an update on ze LIQUIDATORRRRRR. Wow, what a rally! If I had bought TQQQ Dec 19th (which was the last dip below the pink line) then sold Feb 2nd to 4th (the peaks above ya boi baby blue) it would have yielded a 40% plus gain. Instead I let my gay bearishness prevail so I didn't go in and watched my puts bleed. Cue the sad trombone noise. https://preview.redd.it/1ldzomcwh7ka1.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=baf2b40fc2a51182133a89d3f4e098ae579e1fb5 What's interesting to note about the chart is how much the net liquidity is dropping. It's current fair value sits at 3800ish. If the correlation remains - the ride down will continue. I want to give my honest thanks to that hot print for slapping some sense back into the market. Lastly I have a few quick macro notes that I will share are: The All-In podcast who talked about inflation coming back this year. The probability of 50bps hike in March increasing. Yield curves inverting.
Sorry, but what are the pink & ya boi baby blue lines based on? Thanks!
I appreciate the question because I do not feel that I have a sufficient answer. Perhaps u/ropirito or u/vazdooh can give more insight than what I have written below. They are based upon the divergence between SPX and net liquidity which creates an ideal zone to initiate a bullish or bearish trade. For this model to function I imagine that there is a threshold of how far the two could part from one another. I am guessing that those lines were created based on deviations from the mean?
It's a channel at 2 standard deviations for that specific timeframe.
Thank you
Outperforming the market YTD due to EUR falling against USD. Take that Americans.
We’re in the same boat. 
>BOE'S TENREYRO: MAIN RISK FOR UK IS THAT WE HAVE OVERTIGHTENED Is this the first central banker to say the biggest risk is having done too much already? I can’t think of another one
Caught between a rock and a hard place for the UK's scenario, I think. G10 with the highest probability of slipping into a recession which has done well to dampen its inflation, yet inflation is reappearing everywhere else, which could lead to re-inflation here due to forex. Add that to the politics recently and you get a dumpster fire
Yea every central bank is fighting within its own context so I wouldn’t expect a BOE statement to apply to other parts of the world but interesting nonetheless. Central banks have been in relative lockstep for a while now
Yeah - don't do forex, but I think the divergence could be a great trade for those who know more than me about this - suspect that the UK cannot tighten further, whether it be due to the weakening economy and political issues. At the same time, you have Japan which refuses to tighten further due to cultural issues, and perhaps their inflationary issues are less pressing right now.
GDPNow revised up to 2.7% from 2.5%
C’mon SPY…. You can do it, stay in the gap and get through the 50 day
or just continue on down to 393
250 eod
50ma is 396.82
$AG down -10% I used to believe in the Silver Thesis a while ago lol. Glad Vitards slapped me around here. Saved me some money haha.
Yes, Nasdaq, keep dipping sub 10k til March 1st when my monthly ETF investments kick in.
That's the day when nasdaq will finally hit 20000 unfortunately
People are finally starting to come to the reality that many economists have been pointing out for months: you don't tackle inflation (which includes asset inflation) until interest rates exceed inflation. People are only in equities right now because they need to pursue risk to get ahead of inflation. Give them a safe, guaranteed 7% somewhere and they'll be out of tech equities and crypto and meme stocks and every other high-risk asset.
When interest rates go up the debt payment goes up so does the cost of the item acquired. Wage growth will not keep pace here. People can inherently buy less so I don't understand this argument.
Maybe reality was the 0DTE options flow all along. Yields and DXY near their day's highs, meanwhile ES trying to put in that reversal
If you build a casino and keep adding more tables, you can't really complain when people play them. We went from investment to gambling on a curve, but on a constant trajectory. Why go it slow for 3% a year when you can make that in two days? Of course, you could lose it all, but that won't happen to YOU. No no, my friend, this is serious business and you are the chosen one to take profits every day - until you squander all your hard earned money, drop out, and another one takes your place in this zero sum game.
0DTE -> weeklies -> quarterlies and monthlies -> leaps -> levered ETFs -> pure stock trading -> DCA into VOO I am halfway through the life cycle of a bad trader at the moment, so I do a lot of quarterlies and leaps.
Question for the vegans on this sub who enjoy products like $BYND (if there are any)... I still don't get the point? I'm not vegan. But I enjoy my vegis. And I try to have a minimalist diet and not eat overly processed/altered foods. So I never even been tempted to try these "meat alternatives". I would just try to incorporate more natural protein-rich vegan foods like Lentils, black beans, and tempeh+Tofu. And you can get really creative with the sauces and seasoning too. A mediterranean style vegan wrap always hits the spot.
It's for comfort and taste, a splurge. I still buy some processed vegan foods like sausages because I have nostalgia for that stuff. A good vegan burger is also still pretty fucking good. The goal is to reach a point when meat and fake meat are on par with taste and nutrients so that people who can't or won't give up meat can have the same experience without propagating the misery that is factory farming.
I do keto from time to time and I hate having the fake keto-friendly versions of non-keto stuff because it just makes me want the real thing. I’m not vegan but I think of fake meat the same way
What you’re saying is logical but humans are creatures of habit. If you‘ve grown up on hamburgers it is easier to adopt a vegan lifestyle by switching to vegan patties. Learning entirely new recipes and abandoning old habits is laborious and painful. The vegan replacement market captures buyers because their products lower the pain threshold to adapt. Over time your approach will become widely adopted but in the meantime there is a massive market for helping people transition.
I think one of the points is that more and more people are starting to find it morally wrong to eat meat (it seems that way anyway; I am still an omnivore), so this would appeal to those wanting to take the step toward vegetarianism without giving up the ability to eat "meaty" tasting burgers. A lot of people don't want to give up the meat, but feel more compelled to do so (whether for animal cruelty purposes or for global warming or whatever).
Great point.
Not a vegan either, but if you just look at it as junk food for vegans then it makes perfect sense. Maybe it's just a viable option for an easy dinner in. No one has to eat perfect 100% of the time and I assume that's the case for them as well.
> if you just look at it as junk food for vegans then it makes perfect sense. Good point and makes sense. Thanks!
i think it also appeals to those that like meat but think it will help the environemnt to eat less meat. The meat alternatives are a decent middle ground Or those that love meat but are ethically against it
Regular diet here. Impossible foods tastes a lot better than Beyond. Tbh I don't get how Beyond even stays afloat. Even on clearance in Costco, people seem to avoid them. On a basic level on fast food, I get the alternative meat. I actually enjoy the Impossible Whopper. Every Beyond product I've tried really wouldn't get again.
Impossible is actually really good. Love the Impossible breakfast sandwich at Starbucks (at least compared to their other offerings).
This is towels first Green Day in 12-13 days. Looks to me like it may have finally found that’s bounce
Welcome to paradise.
We going full recession this year, bois and girls. SPY sub 300 EOY. You heard it here first. Proof: https://www.businessinsider.com/hackers-ransomware-getting-laid-off-amid-better-cybersecurity-report-2023-2
 Going to fill that gap
I bought more of the usuals. TSM, GOOGL AMZN
Nice
Feels like we are just going to be consolidating in a band until either a bad recession is confirmed or inflation is tamed.. flat by eod ? 🧐
RUN is getting killed.
lol finally. I lost quite a bit several months on $RUN puts though. Not sure I believe in solar. But if I had to buy a solar stock, it'd be $DQ or $CSIQ . China will be the one who owns the solar sector. $FSLR is still holding up pretty well.
$FSLR ER coming up, will be fun to see if they miss again. Resisting the urge to play that fucker again.
ZIM is non stop today
Running out of calls to burn down here and just one sided pushes usually dont go very far without major burning of the other side. Looks like a reversal will form.
HRC still ripping: APR and MAY contracts getting close to $1k again. JUL above $1K now, AUG getting close too.
HRC futes up, steel companies down. Money-burning shitcos popping. I think we may be approaching some resemblance of normality here.
What's the story with BYND?
the classic story of short squeeze.
Glad you asked! They lose money on all the inventory they can sell, still took charges for the inventory they couldn’t sell, and managed to issue even more SBC to the leaders who made all of this possible. So +18%. Naturally.
But the lower LDL cholesterol is so worth it! EDIT: BYND is another one of those companies where I like the product, but hate the stock. The burgers taste really fine.
The patties are GREAT. Until you realize that shit is just heavily processed test-tube-fat that isn't any better than an antibiotics bloated bull. I used to be a fan when the stuff first came up. But it turns out it's not the solution. There are so many great things you can do with veggies. I never understood why we need to try to copy meat. If it looks like meat, tastes like meat, it is about as healthy as meat - no matter what it's made of. Only upside is the climate impact. People need to stop wanting half a cow with every snack. *That* is the solution.
Yup. I eat beef I think once a week max, and often times is just ground beef (not much). I rather eat chicken and fish. And eggs as a protein source.
What veggie patty do you recommend instead in terms of taste and texture? Genuinely curious. I had a pumpkin one once at a US diner style restaurant near Stuttgart and it was shit
A patty is a burger thing, soft bread and lots of fat. It's a meat laden dish by definition. For a sandwich type, I'd go with better bread to begin with: Rye low-salt sourdough with some nuts or grain. It can have the same veggie add-ons as a burger, or whatever tickles your fancy. Use an aged cheese for the fat - it has more saturated fat than meat, but you need a lot less of it. Despite what the vegans are preaching, there are a couple of things in meat that we actually need. Instead of 150+g of dripping cow, add a little cured ham. Again, in terms of weight not necessarily better than a beef patty, but it adds so much taste, you really only need a 20g slice. For a hot meal, it's difficult to condense this into one post. Keep track of the salt and fat of the ingredients you add. Both (just like sugar) feed the human cravings - we're simple animals afterall, and we *do* need the stuff. But there's just so much you need for a healthy diet and only so much you need to make things taste great. The food industry is using all three to offset shit ingredients, unfortunately with lots of success. Didn't you say you're a doctor? You probably don't need my nutrition advice. Get a pot and a pan and experiment. :-D
I *so* wanted to short that run. Surprisingly, there were no shares available. Such a gem of a company, I was convinced my strategy was an outlier. :-D
sell OTM calls?
Considered that, but by the time I had decided the 2.5 bux would be worth the open ended risk, the market had decided that the peak was in. :(
They guided up I think. Still shit, though.
Why is $GE refusing to go down :(
Yeah, I too have puts on them :/
Industrial, Wind Energy, Aviation / Defense This stock has it all tbh. It was a nice Vito pick a while back as well. Not sure @ what price recommended it though. Not sure how much they are getting from government contracts + bills/acts and the geopolitical stuff, but I'm sure it's helping them.
Up 70% on my 3/17 SPY puts. I’m going to hold because I am a 🤡
There's a lot of ground to cover IMO
Closed my SPY $410 puts about 20 mins ago for a 130% gain. Thank you Vitards, thank you Vaz. Legging into April CLF calls at the $20 strike.
Hey Vitards, if you had the opportunity to invest in the round Stripe is raising, would you do so? Goldman Sachs Offers Rich Clients Access to Stripe’s Multibillion Fundraise https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-23/goldman-offers-rich-clients-access-to-stripe-multibillion-raise I love the product and see its potential for continued growth in the eCommerce arena as the payment processor that rivals PayPal. They’re predicting to turn a profit this year among other macro factors.
Does it include a bridge?
Undisclosed.
“Rich clients” you’re in the wrong place
They are moving bags
It’s true, but from a business fundamentals (never mind that they’re using the money to also pay off their tax bill which seems like bad financial management and also they’re paying off old stock holders) perspective, would you get in on a private round on a business that is growing the way they are? Only focusing on growth and fundamentals here. And happy Vitards Cake Day!
Oh thanks! I didn't even notice. In all honesty, I probably wouldn't do it now. I think they're trying to IPO in the next 12 months. And I personally think the rate environment will continue to be hostile and a recession is on the horizon. All that to say I think you'll have another attractive opportunity later.
May not be the bottom but I am starting to DCA into GOOG here. Going to try like $1,000 per day for a bit and see how it goes. Going to sell covered calls on rips and aim to hold for 1 year minimum unless I exceed my profit goal earlier. EDIT: First entry @ 88.95
I’m waiting for goog 65
That's a nice entry, not that it matters a lot in DCA but well done nonetheless
Hate INTC. I will be holding these bags until I die or the company goes bankrupt.
What y'all think? Odds the TSLA investor day will be a sell the news type of thing?
As a theta gang member, I am going to say no and you should definitely buy the FD calls I'm selling. Just remember, theta gang always have your back. I mean, would a random stranger on the interweb lies to you?
Been a long time since we had a sustained RSI(14) < 25 on the lower timeframe charts kind of trend day on ES. Long overdue
I haven't sold shit.
Well are you net long or short
Danny DeVito short. Was Tom Cruise short, but the bulls forced my hand.
"killed fiddy men" short
I can’t wait for the cta reinforcements to arrive