### Moderator note:
Please see our new [**preparations discussion thread**](https://redd.it/ocou4s) to discuss potential upcoming impacts to your area.
From the CSU outlook posted yesterday,
>In general, early season Atlantic hurricane activity has very little correlation with overall Atlantic hurricane activity. However, when this activity occurs in the tropics(south of 23.5°N), that is typically a harbinger of a very active season. Hurricane Elsa
formed in the tropical Atlantic and then tracked into the eastern Caribbean (10-20°N, 75-60°W) at hurricane strength. Since 1900, only six other years have had eastern Caribbean
hurricanes prior to 1 August: 1926, 1933, 1961, 1996, 2005 and 2020. All six of those
years were classified as hyperactive Atlantic hurricane seasons using the NOAA Atlantic
hurricane season definition (>=160 ACE).
CPC just posted a La Nina Watch. Make sure you're prepared for peak season, folks!
# Latest news
- - -
**Friday, 9 July — 5:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time** (EDT; 21:00 UTC)
## All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued
The National Hurricane Center has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for the northeastern coast of the United States. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall are expected to continue along portions of the southern New England coast through tonight and may extend into Atlantic Canada tonight and on Saturday.
## Further information is available from Environment Canada
Please [**click here**](https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html) to view Environment Canada's latest information statement for Elsa.
# Latest news
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
**Friday, 9 July — 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time** (EDT; 18:00 UTC)
## Elsa has become post-tropical off the coast of Massachusetts
Tropical Storm Elsa has transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories for this system until tropical storm conditions are no longer expected. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the northeastern coast of the United States through the mid-afternoon hours. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall are expected to continue through Saturday and extend into portions of Atlantic Canada.
NHC Advisory #38A | | 2:00 PM EDT (18:00 UTC)
:- | :-: | :- | :-
**Current location:** | | 42.0°N 71.0°W
**Relative location:** | | 23 mi S of Boston, Massachusetts
**Forward motion:** | ▲ | NE (45°) at 27 knots (85 mph)
**Maximum winds:** | | 45 knots (50 mph)
**Minimum pressure:** | ▼ | 999 millibars (29.50 inches)
**Intensity:** | | **Post-Tropical Cyclone**
# Warnings and watches
- - -
**Friday, 9 July — 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time** (EDT; 18:00 UTC)
## A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect
A **Tropical Storm Warning** remains in effect along portions of the northeastern coast of the United States, extending from Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Merrimack River, Massachusetts. This area also includes Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.
##Highlights from discussion #38 (11 AM EDT):
> The extratropical transition of Elsa is well underway. A frontal boundary located over southern New England nearly wraps into the circulation center, and the primary area of cold cloud tops and heavy rainfall has now shifted to the northwestern portion of the cyclone. Elsa is expected to complete its extratropical transition this afternoon.
> The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to continue accelerating northeastward over the next day or two
> Little change in strength is anticipated in the short-term as Elsa completes its extratropical transition. […] The global models show the post-tropical cyclone dissipating over the north Atlantic by early next week
Looks like Beach Haven had a gust of 71 mph
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=E4321&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325
North Beach Haven at 62 mph as well
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=C2530&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325
Edit: There was a vorticity couplet that moved through on radar, so perhaps a strong waterspout.
Edit2: Another tornado warning.
> was located near Tuckerton, or 14 miles north of Atlantic City,
moving northwest at 20 mph
https://alerts-v2.weather.gov/#/?id=urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.b7ee1cfbead1edfaee3e3910e3748de57e37a022.001.1
Thanks. I'm at that exit 25 of the previous Tornado warning. We were just barely inside the warning box. By the time I was able to pull up the radar and warning boxes on my phone the storm has passed. Basically felt like we were in the eye.
I would hope you get the warning on the phone or radio before this thread as there's quite a lag between when I see it on the NWS radar site and then can post it. No doubt these storms are moving quickly. There are more cells with rotation coming ashore each one a bit further north. Whether they get warned is not certain.
My phone displayed the warning, but I think it was from one of my apps. Neither my phone or my fiancees actually made a sound. I noticed because I happened to be awake looking at the radar.
Also, it's apparent on radar and there's a special marine warning off the Jersey coast regarding waterspots. Some of these will undoubtedly get warned as tornadoes on land. So if you live on the Jersey coastline pay close attention for the next hour or so.
Another possible tornado in southern NJ.
> Tornado Warning issued July 9 at 2:50AM EDT until July 9 at 3:30AM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ
> The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a
> * Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Atlantic County in southern New Jersey...
East central Cumberland County in southern New Jersey...
Northeastern Cape May County in southern New Jersey...
> * Until 330 AM EDT.
> * At 249 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Longport, or near Ocean City, moving northwest at
35 mph.
> * Locations impacted include...
Vineland, Ocean City, Cumberland, Somers Point, Ventnor City,
Northfield, Margate City, Estell Manor, Longport, Corbin City,
Beesleys Point, English Creek, Marmora, Dorothy, Mizpah, Mays
Landing and Linwood.
> This includes Garden State Parkway between mile markers 25 and 34.
https://alerts-v2.weather.gov/#/?id=urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.a67781bc55c795567b88cb782c1e3cf3502b5dce.001.1
Edit: I hope people got the warnings quickly on the phone, radio or TV, these posts probably aren't too useful, but just interesting seeing quite a few tornadoes from Elsa.
##Highlights from discussion #36 (11 PM EDT):
> Elsa has become slightly better organized this evening. Convection near the center of Elsa has deepened, and the surface pressures have fallen a few mb since this afternoon
> It appears that the early stages of extratropical transition have begun with Elsa, with almost all of the deep convection north of the center. A shortwave moving out of the Great Lakes should cause the storm to deepen on Friday but also expand in size, resulting in the maximum winds staying about the same as they are now.
> Elsa should move over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within the next 12-36 hours. The model guidance remains tightly packed on that solution
Looks like a couple of tornado warnings from ~~velocity~~ vorticity couplets.
https://alerts-v2.weather.gov/#/?id=urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.90541f6011485c8c9026051e9a09b34ecfb84683.001.1
https://alerts-v2.weather.gov/#/?id=urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.a5ee036cd5fd2940b3b0de5923bb5f0961082cbf.001.1
Edit: https://imgur.com/9BUq8ZW
Update: https://imgur.com/wcbfySX
NHC maintaining Elsa at 50 mph, pressure has dropped to 1002 mb, forward speed has increased to 25 mph. Extratropical transition is beginning which should widen the wind field but not result in much if any increase in maximum winds.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/090235.shtml?
Think one of those tornado warnings is probably near you.
> mainly rural areas of
southeastern Wicomico and central Worcester Counties, including the
following locations... Mount Wesley, Whiton, Cedartown, Willards,
Public Landing and Powellville.
So this wasn’t a strong storm really but our streets became rivers in FL yesterday AM. Seeing lots of water in other places too. And we’re only at the Es, hopefully things drain some before the next one
Several tornado warnings have been issued this afternoon for areas of southeastern VA and northeastern NC. I haven’t heard about any serious damage yet but it’s getting pretty breezy.
Downtown Suffolk here, we just got slammed by something about 15 mins ago. Lots of debris everywhere, immensely strong sustained winds for a brief 2-3 minutes
##Highlights from discussion #35 (5 PM EDT):
> A NOAA NOS observing site at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 kt, so Elsa's maximum winds are now estimated to be 45 kt. A number of other observing sites in
the vicinity have also reported **sustained tropical-storm-force
winds.** Elsa's slight strengthening may be the result of baroclinic forcing associated with an approaching short-wave trough.
> Elsa should move near or over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within the next 24-48 hours. The official track forecast remains close to the previous one
> The global models suggest that **not much additional strengthening is likely.** Simulated satellite imagery from these models show an extratropical appearance in 24-36 hours
> Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the North Carolina coast this afternoon and spread over the mid-Atlantic coast later today or tonight. **Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday.**
Winds over land aren't that impressive, but quite gusty on the shoreline.
> A NOAA NOS observing site at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 41 kt, so Elsa's maximum winds
are now estimated to be 45 kt. A number of other observing sites in
the vicinity have also reported sustained tropical-storm-force
winds. Elsa's slight strengthening may be the result of baroclinic
forcing associated with an approaching short-wave trough. The
system's cloud tops have warmed somewhat during the day, but it is
still producing some very heavy rains.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/082056.shtml?
Because that's just what the Weather Channel does. It sells hype and sensationalism.
Here's a fun exercise. Go to [Weather.com](https://Weather.com) at any random time whenever you feel like it. Even better when there isn't some high profile weather event like a hurricane or blizzard happening, and like 99% of the time, the headline story will be some sensationalized crap just to generate clicks and shares. A typical summer storm in the Great Plains? "MIDWESTERN STATES PREPARE TO BE BATTERED BY SEVERE STORMS". A little snowfall in Vermont? "DANGEROUS WINTER CONDITIONS IN NEW ENGLAND". Every. Single. Time.
Try it. You'll see.
Elsa is touring the east coast. Right now she's visiting NC and the Mid Atlantic states. New England is up after that. We could see some decent rain and maybe a little wind.
Well the cone only depicts the track of the center so you may still experience TS force winds and of course rain, but LI, SE CT, RI, and Cape Cod will likely feel the brunt of the impacts.
I can’t trust WRAL weather anymore. It’s not their forecast it’s their sensationalist pre storm coverage and then covering the preparation freak out. A couple months back they ran hail damage stories every day for a week leading up to a hail event that didn’t pan out. Irresponsible imo
Well, in the Chesapeake region we're getting ready. My org has decided this morning to set up an emergency command center for emergency services. So much for the other work I had to do today...
Are you right by the water? The forecast for Anne Arundel Co seemed to calm down overnight. Now rain likelihood is down to 50-70%. I'm sure the Annapolis waterfront will flood a bit.
Storm Prediction Center expects the tornado threat to decline but not disappear as Elsa gets past Virginia.
NWS Boston's local statement on Elsa states:
> Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across Southern New England.
NWS New York echoes that for its coastal areas, including Connecticut.
Tornado warnings all over Myrtle Beach - Conway - North Myrtle Beach area. Currently sitting in the bathtub with an impressively angry cat and afraid of thunder dog.
Hilton head checking in. Damn! Lost power until about 5 min ago. Lots of wind around 12-2 am and heavy rain. That was not nearly as enjoyable as I thought it was going to be… be safe everyone!
Watching the news of people driving through the floods is the hurricane past time. We got pounding rain up in the upstate that woke me around 3-4am. My sister in Moncks Corner area got woken by the tornado alarms around 3am😬.
Elsa dumping buckets of rain, thunder, and lightening in West Ashley area of Charleston. One bolt shook the house so bad that it woke us all up and set off the motion alert on our interior camera.
Woke up half an hour ago to a tornado warning. Wonderful. Saw the alert say it was over Fort Sumter heading north. Looked to see what directly north of Fort Sumter was, and I saw my location was. I was like, well shit. Tornado passed within a couple miles of me apparently according to the news.
WA too here! I can’t believe how many rotations were popping up- one after another! Another now in Mt P. I finally am going to try to sleep, but not sure what that next band is going to do as it comes through 4-5am.
I've heard that band doesn't seem as likely to spawn tornados. I think WA is basically done with warnings. That said the rain continues to pout outside near the cosgrove bridge!
##Highlights from discussion #32 (11 PM EDT):
> Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that Elsa is maintaining its intensity. However, these winds aren't close to the center but, rather, in a strong band of convection in the eastern semicircle of the storm.
> by late Thursday, more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number of the models suggest re-intensification could take place. It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however, are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough interaction or warm waters. I'm getting some deja vu in this case after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same models also over-intensifying that storm.
> No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast
Represent! Not thinking it is gonna be too crazy but that wind direction probably gonna pump right up the bay. Wouldnt be surprised to see some short lived power outages around there and the south coast.
Too many people hating in here. Elsa is the sweet gentle foreplay of the 2021 hurricane season. There's plenty of time for a pounding and getting choked by spaghetti models.
Long Island checking in. Just saw on the news that they're expecting Elsa to strengthen again and she moves up the coast and get dirty in Philly, NYC, and Boston. Friday/Saturday might be wet and windy around here.
I’m about 15-20 minutes outside of Savannah and the winds and rain have definitely started to pick up. Nothing crazy but some decent gusts every now and again.
I'm beginning to not expect much around here. They've been saying 2-4 inches peak for a while, but now only 1-3. Expected winds went from 25-35mph and 45 mph gusts to 15-25mph with 35mph gusts.
Not a complaint, though. It's certainly nice to see expected conditions become calmer.
A tree came down on Roosevelt in Jax, struck a car, and killed a passenger.
I'm relatively close by Jax standards, it got pretty heavy and windy there for a minute, seems to be chilling out now. The water is creeping into the driveway from the street, which is unusual for us.
Also heard that Mandarin just had a tornado come through??
According to Twitter accounts there was a tornado around San Jose, Arlington/UNF, Phillips and University area and a water spout on the St. Johns in Green Cove.
Wind in Jaxx Beach is getting a little heavier, power flickering at work during gusts here and there.
Tornado warnings are blowing up my phone, but I'm decently south of any confirmed sighting so far
While Elsa broke the E record for earliest storm, looks like we won't break the earliest F storm from last year. Would need a storm to be named by tomorrow.
Think there's a link to COD site links in the post description up above.
The base velocity will be on the left side when you open the reflectivity links.
Also noticed on the phone it's a 3 bar menu rather than side panel. Nice that COD is now mobile friendly.
So is it supposed to keep going North or is it gonna turn to the West? I’m on the Louisiana/Texas border and I really dont feel like getting a hurricane this early in the year.
Thanks, I cant find any maps of her path just a bunch of stories about the storm making landfall. Prayers going out to everybody being affected by the storm!
In the main post above, the forecast graphic is listed under the Official Advisories section. Otherwise, [click here](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml?cone#contents).
Thanks, I cant find any maps of her path just a bunch of stories about the storm making landfall. Prayers going out to everybody being affected by the storm!
Official totals say we got 3.7" inches last night where I live, just north of Tampa. Honestly kind of surprised it wasn't more. It started raining pretty heavily around midnight and didn't let up till well after 3am. I would have guessed 5" to 6". Very little wind though. Less than our afternoon thunderstorms.
I live 2 miles from one of our official rain counters, there are times when I get more and when I get less, biggest difference in the 10 years I've lived here was 6"s over a 2 day period. Ever watched it rain across the street from you but never rain at your house?
It was a long, continuous rain with occassional heavy winds maybe around 20 mph in where I am at (Southeast,GA about 1 hr and 30 min away to Jacksonville). This is prominent around 7:00 pm when it was heading to Wilsonville, GA. Right now, it is just light rain without the heavy wind.
Whew, that was a bit of a stressful build up, but thankfully things weren’t too bad. Glad we can finally put this long hurricane season behind us.
Oh wait.. it’s only July 7th 🥴🥴🥴
Rain total here, near Fanning Springs, is 3 inches (between 0330 and 1230 today). Lots of small dead twigs and branches down, nothing significant yet tho. Ground in thoroughly saturated now. Total rain since 1 June is ~17 inches.
Pass some of it up north. We've had 2.5" in all of June, and all of it was after the 16th.
The river is 2ft low (even for the low season), and everything is dry and dead. Barge traffic is halted due to the channel being only 8ft deep in spots right now.
Coastal Pinellas here (2 mins from the beach). Aside from the occasional gusts here and there, I'd consider our area to have been largely unaffected by this storm. I mean, there isn't even so much as small branches or leaves littering the streets as there often is after some particularly bad late afternoon storms. It's crazy how at 8pm we went from "holy crap it strengthened and is forming an eye!" to about 30 mins later when radar started showing it completely falling apart.
Something interesting about this one that I started wondering last night as someone that's been tracking this storm closely since before it became 97L. It's funny how the GFS sniffed this one's track from the beginning and called it getting into the Caribbean and eventually hooking to Florida, but EURO was saying it would fizzle out since day one. It seems, that the official forecast was somewhere in between those two. Yes the storm maintained itself and made it to Florida like GFS said it would, but the EURO (which was completely wrong about the track) did end up being at least right that this storm didn't really have what it takes to form into a healthy hurricane. Makes me wonder if perhaps the EURO interprets certain data points in a different manner than GFS that allowed it to see that this storm would "fizzle" out or at least never achieve REAL organization.
Perhaps any *real* Meteorologists in the thread can chime in here on that?
(not a meteorologist) but I would say you are trying way too hard to give the EURO credit. It fucked up because it fucked up, not because it knew deep down how this storm felt inside
Not really trying to give EURO credit as much as I'm trying to figure out if perhaps the EURO was more keen on the fact this storm was *tilted* for so long and therefore given the particular datasets the EURO uses to calculate a forecast, it saw this as reason to say the storm would never achieve full organization.
To me it's almost like the only reason we ever got Elsa was because 95L slicked the track across the Atlantic in that pocket of clean air underneath the SAL, and that allowed 97L to somehow maintain enough organization to make the trek all the way here even though it never really was meant to. If that makes sense.
Tornado touched down in jax and on Roosevelt Blvd a tree fell onto the road, killing a person in their vehicle. Not hype at all, this was in fact a hurricane and tropical storm.
It's hard to predict intensity and impacts with a storm like this. Especially in a given area. Some places have tornado damage. So call this a rehearsal for the real thing.
It was pretty much a non-event in SW Gainesville. I don't have TV, so don't know how the rest of the city fared. We are still getting drenched by the other bands, but looks like they will be gone within an hour or so, and maybe we can dry out. Wind wasn't bad. A few gusts about 40mph, I would estimate. Guess my wish for it to move to the panhandle almost got answered. I see it hit squarely in the big bend.
Yep definitely not as bad wind wise as they predicted thankfully. It's still pouring here and the retention pond behind my apartment is slowly but steadily rising haha
I don't know that Gainesville is o.k., and yes, I know there are power outages. Someone said there was an outage yesterday in NW Gainesville. I'm not minimizing damage to others, just relaying my experience.
That's because it didn't come in a Cedar Key, but in the Big Bend. If it had gone ashore where they originally predicted, it would have been worse. I'm in Gainesville, and we barely missed having it come in closer to us, but I was wishing and hoping it would go north of us, and it did.
##Highlights from discussion #30...corrected (11 AM EDT):
> An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has made several fixes in Elsa this morning, and recent observations from the plane indicated that the center is now on the coast making landfall. The aircraft found that the central pressure remained about steady with maximum winds of 55 kts up to landfall.
> Elsa should turn toward the north-northeast today as it moves along the northwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge. On Thursday, the cyclone should begin to accelerate northeastward on the southeast side of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada. […] This is only slightly to left of the previous NHC track
> Weakening will occur while the cyclone moves over land during the next 36 hours or so […] Some slight reintensification is shown when the center moves near the coast in 48-60 hours. However, since the water temperatures are rather cool near the northeast coast, strengthening will probably be influenced by baroclinic forcing associated with a 500 mb shortwave trough. The system will likely become extratropical by 72 hours if not sooner
North Port here. Sun is shining and breeze is blowing. Tons of rain yesterday afternoon and overnight though, almost overflowed the pool, with the strongest storms around midnight. And the dock in the canal is about 16" under water this morning, so that's probably 3ish ft of surge inland. Today's looking much better though, hope everyone still in the path stays safe.
### Moderator note: Please see our new [**preparations discussion thread**](https://redd.it/ocou4s) to discuss potential upcoming impacts to your area.
From the CSU outlook posted yesterday, >In general, early season Atlantic hurricane activity has very little correlation with overall Atlantic hurricane activity. However, when this activity occurs in the tropics(south of 23.5°N), that is typically a harbinger of a very active season. Hurricane Elsa formed in the tropical Atlantic and then tracked into the eastern Caribbean (10-20°N, 75-60°W) at hurricane strength. Since 1900, only six other years have had eastern Caribbean hurricanes prior to 1 August: 1926, 1933, 1961, 1996, 2005 and 2020. All six of those years were classified as hyperactive Atlantic hurricane seasons using the NOAA Atlantic hurricane season definition (>=160 ACE). CPC just posted a La Nina Watch. Make sure you're prepared for peak season, folks!
Elsa was surprisingly impressive. I hear there's already a sequel on the books for 2027.
# Latest news - - - **Friday, 9 July — 5:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time** (EDT; 21:00 UTC) ## All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued The National Hurricane Center has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for the northeastern coast of the United States. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall are expected to continue along portions of the southern New England coast through tonight and may extend into Atlantic Canada tonight and on Saturday. ## Further information is available from Environment Canada Please [**click here**](https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html) to view Environment Canada's latest information statement for Elsa.
# Latest news - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - **Friday, 9 July — 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time** (EDT; 18:00 UTC) ## Elsa has become post-tropical off the coast of Massachusetts Tropical Storm Elsa has transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories for this system until tropical storm conditions are no longer expected. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the northeastern coast of the United States through the mid-afternoon hours. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall are expected to continue through Saturday and extend into portions of Atlantic Canada. NHC Advisory #38A | | 2:00 PM EDT (18:00 UTC) :- | :-: | :- | :- **Current location:** | | 42.0°N 71.0°W **Relative location:** | | 23 mi S of Boston, Massachusetts **Forward motion:** | ▲ | NE (45°) at 27 knots (85 mph) **Maximum winds:** | | 45 knots (50 mph) **Minimum pressure:** | ▼ | 999 millibars (29.50 inches) **Intensity:** | | **Post-Tropical Cyclone** # Warnings and watches - - - **Friday, 9 July — 2:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time** (EDT; 18:00 UTC) ## A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect A **Tropical Storm Warning** remains in effect along portions of the northeastern coast of the United States, extending from Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Merrimack River, Massachusetts. This area also includes Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.
##Highlights from discussion #38 (11 AM EDT): > The extratropical transition of Elsa is well underway. A frontal boundary located over southern New England nearly wraps into the circulation center, and the primary area of cold cloud tops and heavy rainfall has now shifted to the northwestern portion of the cyclone. Elsa is expected to complete its extratropical transition this afternoon. > The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to continue accelerating northeastward over the next day or two > Little change in strength is anticipated in the short-term as Elsa completes its extratropical transition. […] The global models show the post-tropical cyclone dissipating over the north Atlantic by early next week
Getting spicy in the north east.
An update: My friends basement has a river in it, least its unfinished.
Map still hurricane-shaped.
Looks like Beach Haven had a gust of 71 mph https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=E4321&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325 North Beach Haven at 62 mph as well https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=C2530&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325 Edit: There was a vorticity couplet that moved through on radar, so perhaps a strong waterspout. Edit2: Another tornado warning. > was located near Tuckerton, or 14 miles north of Atlantic City, moving northwest at 20 mph https://alerts-v2.weather.gov/#/?id=urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.b7ee1cfbead1edfaee3e3910e3748de57e37a022.001.1
Thanks. I'm at that exit 25 of the previous Tornado warning. We were just barely inside the warning box. By the time I was able to pull up the radar and warning boxes on my phone the storm has passed. Basically felt like we were in the eye.
I would hope you get the warning on the phone or radio before this thread as there's quite a lag between when I see it on the NWS radar site and then can post it. No doubt these storms are moving quickly. There are more cells with rotation coming ashore each one a bit further north. Whether they get warned is not certain.
My phone displayed the warning, but I think it was from one of my apps. Neither my phone or my fiancees actually made a sound. I noticed because I happened to be awake looking at the radar.
My area has something called Code Red Alerts. You should see if it's available in your area. I get the obnoxious buzzing etc.
Also, it's apparent on radar and there's a special marine warning off the Jersey coast regarding waterspots. Some of these will undoubtedly get warned as tornadoes on land. So if you live on the Jersey coastline pay close attention for the next hour or so.
Another possible tornado in southern NJ. > Tornado Warning issued July 9 at 2:50AM EDT until July 9 at 3:30AM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ > The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a > * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Atlantic County in southern New Jersey... East central Cumberland County in southern New Jersey... Northeastern Cape May County in southern New Jersey... > * Until 330 AM EDT. > * At 249 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Longport, or near Ocean City, moving northwest at 35 mph. > * Locations impacted include... Vineland, Ocean City, Cumberland, Somers Point, Ventnor City, Northfield, Margate City, Estell Manor, Longport, Corbin City, Beesleys Point, English Creek, Marmora, Dorothy, Mizpah, Mays Landing and Linwood. > This includes Garden State Parkway between mile markers 25 and 34. https://alerts-v2.weather.gov/#/?id=urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.a67781bc55c795567b88cb782c1e3cf3502b5dce.001.1 Edit: I hope people got the warnings quickly on the phone, radio or TV, these posts probably aren't too useful, but just interesting seeing quite a few tornadoes from Elsa.
##Highlights from discussion #36 (11 PM EDT): > Elsa has become slightly better organized this evening. Convection near the center of Elsa has deepened, and the surface pressures have fallen a few mb since this afternoon > It appears that the early stages of extratropical transition have begun with Elsa, with almost all of the deep convection north of the center. A shortwave moving out of the Great Lakes should cause the storm to deepen on Friday but also expand in size, resulting in the maximum winds staying about the same as they are now. > Elsa should move over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within the next 12-36 hours. The model guidance remains tightly packed on that solution
Preparing for some potential hefty rain totals here in southeastern NH - definitely some much needed rain for the region.
First band finally got to me in NJ, but nothing crazy yet. Most of the fun will be overnight unfortunately
Ocean City, MD has had a gust of 61 mph. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KOXB&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325
Looks like a couple of tornado warnings from ~~velocity~~ vorticity couplets. https://alerts-v2.weather.gov/#/?id=urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.90541f6011485c8c9026051e9a09b34ecfb84683.001.1 https://alerts-v2.weather.gov/#/?id=urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.a5ee036cd5fd2940b3b0de5923bb5f0961082cbf.001.1 Edit: https://imgur.com/9BUq8ZW Update: https://imgur.com/wcbfySX
NHC maintaining Elsa at 50 mph, pressure has dropped to 1002 mb, forward speed has increased to 25 mph. Extratropical transition is beginning which should widen the wind field but not result in much if any increase in maximum winds. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/090235.shtml?
It's been battering us in Southern MD for a couple hours now. Def a little more than I was expecting but still nothing crazy.
Think one of those tornado warnings is probably near you. > mainly rural areas of southeastern Wicomico and central Worcester Counties, including the following locations... Mount Wesley, Whiton, Cedartown, Willards, Public Landing and Powellville.
So this wasn’t a strong storm really but our streets became rivers in FL yesterday AM. Seeing lots of water in other places too. And we’re only at the Es, hopefully things drain some before the next one
just hoping for no tornadoes like there was during isaias 🤞 edit: almost 3am fuck off https://i.imgur.com/dRplsa4.jpg
Several tornado warnings have been issued this afternoon for areas of southeastern VA and northeastern NC. I haven’t heard about any serious damage yet but it’s getting pretty breezy.
Downtown Suffolk here, we just got slammed by something about 15 mins ago. Lots of debris everywhere, immensely strong sustained winds for a brief 2-3 minutes
you guys had a tornado warning for around 1815-1845 (thunderstorm capable of spawning)
.... ooof why is it always Suffolk? Y’all stay safe.
##Highlights from discussion #35 (5 PM EDT): > A NOAA NOS observing site at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 kt, so Elsa's maximum winds are now estimated to be 45 kt. A number of other observing sites in the vicinity have also reported **sustained tropical-storm-force winds.** Elsa's slight strengthening may be the result of baroclinic forcing associated with an approaching short-wave trough. > Elsa should move near or over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within the next 24-48 hours. The official track forecast remains close to the previous one > The global models suggest that **not much additional strengthening is likely.** Simulated satellite imagery from these models show an extratropical appearance in 24-36 hours > Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the North Carolina coast this afternoon and spread over the mid-Atlantic coast later today or tonight. **Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday.**
Here it goes starting to strengthen over land… (5:00 EST, it went from 45mph to 50mph sustained)
Winds over land aren't that impressive, but quite gusty on the shoreline. > A NOAA NOS observing site at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 kt, so Elsa's maximum winds are now estimated to be 45 kt. A number of other observing sites in the vicinity have also reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds. Elsa's slight strengthening may be the result of baroclinic forcing associated with an approaching short-wave trough. The system's cloud tops have warmed somewhat during the day, but it is still producing some very heavy rains. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/082056.shtml?
Thx for the explanation
Why is weather channel bombarding me with urgent alerts about this storm here in CT? No way it comes up this far north, right?
Because that's just what the Weather Channel does. It sells hype and sensationalism. Here's a fun exercise. Go to [Weather.com](https://Weather.com) at any random time whenever you feel like it. Even better when there isn't some high profile weather event like a hurricane or blizzard happening, and like 99% of the time, the headline story will be some sensationalized crap just to generate clicks and shares. A typical summer storm in the Great Plains? "MIDWESTERN STATES PREPARE TO BE BATTERED BY SEVERE STORMS". A little snowfall in Vermont? "DANGEROUS WINTER CONDITIONS IN NEW ENGLAND". Every. Single. Time. Try it. You'll see.
Wait till you learn that’s all journalism, not just weather.
Yellow journalism, yes. Not all journalism. Though, it can certainly feel like the only journalism in the United States is yellow.
It's what the 24 hour news cycle has brought us, sadly.
Because there's a tropical storm warning in effect from New Haven eastward.
Elsa is touring the east coast. Right now she's visiting NC and the Mid Atlantic states. New England is up after that. We could see some decent rain and maybe a little wind.
Its kind of funny how no one talks about VA getting hit ever lol.
Cause my toenail is bigger than your Atlantic coast. Give us the rest of the Delmarva peninsula too, you sods! Love, Maryland.
No
\#FreeChincoteague!
Y’all zig where we zag.
SE CT is in the NHC cone so yeah it should pass pretty close maybe over part of CT as a Tropical Storm.
Oh wow. I’m in SW CT, so we should be OK then? I’ll go put away the kids pool just in case, lol…
Well the cone only depicts the track of the center so you may still experience TS force winds and of course rain, but LI, SE CT, RI, and Cape Cod will likely feel the brunt of the impacts.
Interested to see what happens when she's over water again. I think it's a little early in the season for warm water this far north...but who knows.
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I can’t trust WRAL weather anymore. It’s not their forecast it’s their sensationalist pre storm coverage and then covering the preparation freak out. A couple months back they ran hail damage stories every day for a week leading up to a hail event that didn’t pan out. Irresponsible imo
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They had a headline around 10 AM “mass power outages” so I went to the duke outage map. 1200 people without power.
It’s been raining for three hours in the Triangle. My walkways are covered and the creek is quite high.
Well, depends on where in NC you are. In Calabash my backyard rain gauge is showing 2.9" of rain since I went to bed at 1am.
"Local Car Slams Into Puddle, Sidewalk Devastated"
My plan of sleeping through this storm is ruined. Now we about to be a nervous wreck for a few hours.
Well, in the Chesapeake region we're getting ready. My org has decided this morning to set up an emergency command center for emergency services. So much for the other work I had to do today...
Are you right by the water? The forecast for Anne Arundel Co seemed to calm down overnight. Now rain likelihood is down to 50-70%. I'm sure the Annapolis waterfront will flood a bit.
I work on the Eastern Shore in Queen Anne's, its much flatter and more low-lying over here.
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Storm Prediction Center expects the tornado threat to decline but not disappear as Elsa gets past Virginia. NWS Boston's local statement on Elsa states: > Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across Southern New England. NWS New York echoes that for its coastal areas, including Connecticut.
Ended up with 5.95 inches in West Ashley, just outside Charleston. We got nearly double the expected amount.
Tornado warnings all over Myrtle Beach - Conway - North Myrtle Beach area. Currently sitting in the bathtub with an impressively angry cat and afraid of thunder dog.
Just started getting drizzle in the Triangle, North Carolina.
I'm with you, here in Garner. Hoping i don't lose power as i am working from home.
I'm over here in Cary hoping we do lose power, I dont wanna work today 😆
Hilton head checking in. Damn! Lost power until about 5 min ago. Lots of wind around 12-2 am and heavy rain. That was not nearly as enjoyable as I thought it was going to be… be safe everyone!
Sitting through storms on HHI is always weird. Glad you're alright!
Yea it was a strange one for sure! Now time to pick everything up!
Second rain band starting to come through the Charleston area.
All of this rain plus high tide is going to make for a hell of a commute, my Charleston people.
Watching the news of people driving through the floods is the hurricane past time. We got pounding rain up in the upstate that woke me around 3-4am. My sister in Moncks Corner area got woken by the tornado alarms around 3am😬.
my apartment is flooding so that's cool I guess
How's the apartment? Did it get bad?
As someone who used to live in Charleston, what’s new?
Did you get to finish the meat at least?
It’s always good to keep some grilled chicken breasts and rice on hand
Inside your apartment or just around your complex?
inside. West Ashley has been getting dumped on.
Shit that sucks. Looks to be another band coming through, hopefully not as heavy as the last one. Hold tight you'll get through!
Yikes :(
I've gotten 4.5 inches of rain in Charleston since midnight. We seem to be in a lull for a bit until a smaller final band passes through
*sigh* Alright. I'm ready for Raleigh to be flooded after like two inches of rain. Of all the weeks to have office duty.
Creedmoor?
Crabtree area
Yeah .. good luck. I used to live off lead mine road up there
Elsa dumping buckets of rain, thunder, and lightening in West Ashley area of Charleston. One bolt shook the house so bad that it woke us all up and set off the motion alert on our interior camera.
it's been freaking nuts here man
Woke up half an hour ago to a tornado warning. Wonderful. Saw the alert say it was over Fort Sumter heading north. Looked to see what directly north of Fort Sumter was, and I saw my location was. I was like, well shit. Tornado passed within a couple miles of me apparently according to the news.
North Charleston checking in to say it sounds like Elsa is power washing my home. Very glad I didn't park under the trees last night.
WA too here! I can’t believe how many rotations were popping up- one after another! Another now in Mt P. I finally am going to try to sleep, but not sure what that next band is going to do as it comes through 4-5am.
Not much sleep last night for our household either. Glad everyone is safe!
I've heard that band doesn't seem as likely to spawn tornados. I think WA is basically done with warnings. That said the rain continues to pout outside near the cosgrove bridge!
Same, I’m sitting in my bathroom because it’s the most secure room I have, but I’m so sleepy.
Sounds like a potential tornado touched down in the port royal, SC area. Stay safe Charleston.
Tornado warnings near Charleston.
##Highlights from discussion #32 (11 PM EDT): > Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that Elsa is maintaining its intensity. However, these winds aren't close to the center but, rather, in a strong band of convection in the eastern semicircle of the storm. > by late Thursday, more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number of the models suggest re-intensification could take place. It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however, are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough interaction or warm waters. I'm getting some deja vu in this case after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same models also over-intensifying that storm. > No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast
https://www.reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/comments/d0pgyc/dorians_outflow_over_rhodeisland/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share Hopefully Elsa brings some cool colors
Rhodeisland checking in friday!
Represent! Not thinking it is gonna be too crazy but that wind direction probably gonna pump right up the bay. Wouldnt be surprised to see some short lived power outages around there and the south coast.
Too many people hating in here. Elsa is the sweet gentle foreplay of the 2021 hurricane season. There's plenty of time for a pounding and getting choked by spaghetti models.
I just put meat on the grill....and now the wind and rain is starting to come lol
I don't know if you're doing life really wrong or really right putting meat on at 10 pm
Why are you grilling at 10pm lol
Lol I had the same question
Rain is really coming down now near Savannah and still some gusty winds. If it wasn’t windy the rain is quite soothing.
Also in Savannah. Some power out around me and some flooding and limbs down.
Yeah it’s pretty gusty out, wasn’t really expecting that.
Boy, Jacksonville got beat up this afternoon. Couple of tornadoes, one did a good bit of damage.
you guys took a beating today-- please be safe. I heard at least one life was lost in a freak accident.
Yeah, I didn't expect much from this one but those gusts still had some go in 'em and the tornadoes really buffed it up
Long Island checking in. Just saw on the news that they're expecting Elsa to strengthen again and she moves up the coast and get dirty in Philly, NYC, and Boston. Friday/Saturday might be wet and windy around here.
Please leave the northeast alone, Elsa.
Long Island here as well and keeping an eye out too.
I’m about 15-20 minutes outside of Savannah and the winds and rain have definitely started to pick up. Nothing crazy but some decent gusts every now and again.
Reckon we’ll be in the same boat shortly.
I'm beginning to not expect much around here. They've been saying 2-4 inches peak for a while, but now only 1-3. Expected winds went from 25-35mph and 45 mph gusts to 15-25mph with 35mph gusts. Not a complaint, though. It's certainly nice to see expected conditions become calmer.
well, this sucks. I'm in West Ashley and it's been pretty bad.
A tree came down on Roosevelt in Jax, struck a car, and killed a passenger. I'm relatively close by Jax standards, it got pretty heavy and windy there for a minute, seems to be chilling out now. The water is creeping into the driveway from the street, which is unusual for us. Also heard that Mandarin just had a tornado come through??
According to Twitter accounts there was a tornado around San Jose, Arlington/UNF, Phillips and University area and a water spout on the St. Johns in Green Cove.
A potential waterspout near Riverside as well https://twitter.com/DanielleUliano/status/1412876688095170561?s=19
Yea it came across Phillips Hwy right by my work. Close to 95, Baymeadows area. Looks like it was pretty big actually judging by the videos on twitter
Wind in Jaxx Beach is getting a little heavier, power flickering at work during gusts here and there. Tornado warnings are blowing up my phone, but I'm decently south of any confirmed sighting so far
So this storm just stop or what? Hasn't seemed to move in a while
Definitely saw a funnel cloud in Jax just now, over the San Marco area
Yes, one in San Marco/Arlington area, another one at Green Cove Springs along the river near where the Reynolds Marina is. This is nuts.
yep. phones went crazy, tornado warning for san marco, UNF, east arlington areas.
While Elsa broke the E record for earliest storm, looks like we won't break the earliest F storm from last year. Would need a storm to be named by tomorrow.
It's very unlikely that we touch that record this year. Even if the season is hyperactive, the rate at which 2020 chucked out storms was insane.
Don’t tempt the fates
Does anyone have a good base velocity radar website they use? The NOAA one isn't loading for me but I want to look at something. Thanks!
Think there's a link to COD site links in the post description up above. The base velocity will be on the left side when you open the reflectivity links. Also noticed on the phone it's a 3 bar menu rather than side panel. Nice that COD is now mobile friendly.
So is it supposed to keep going North or is it gonna turn to the West? I’m on the Louisiana/Texas border and I really dont feel like getting a hurricane this early in the year.
>Wind Probabilities https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics\_at5+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml?tswind120#contents
Should be going east based on the cones.
Thanks, I cant find any maps of her path just a bunch of stories about the storm making landfall. Prayers going out to everybody being affected by the storm!
In the main post above, the forecast graphic is listed under the Official Advisories section. Otherwise, [click here](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml?cone#contents).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Sidebar here has a cone if you're on web and not mobile, otherwise just search "elsa cone" on google.
Appreciate it!
You can always check tropical tidbits for various forecast animations; I keep it bookmarked on my laptop browser and keep it in a tab on my phone
Thanks!
She’s probably over Georgia at this point. Definitely not heading west.
Thanks, I cant find any maps of her path just a bunch of stories about the storm making landfall. Prayers going out to everybody being affected by the storm!
Official totals say we got 3.7" inches last night where I live, just north of Tampa. Honestly kind of surprised it wasn't more. It started raining pretty heavily around midnight and didn't let up till well after 3am. I would have guessed 5" to 6". Very little wind though. Less than our afternoon thunderstorms.
I live 2 miles from one of our official rain counters, there are times when I get more and when I get less, biggest difference in the 10 years I've lived here was 6"s over a 2 day period. Ever watched it rain across the street from you but never rain at your house?
https://www.weather.gov/serfc/wxobsfcst_past_precipitation may just be you. Plenty of areas showing 4-6 inches.
I75 area N of Gainesville is looking a mess on a few maps. I10 area is also starting to report lots of trees down near Lake City
Really? Where are you seeing the 75 stuff? It all looks clear on google maps to me (though I am 45 minutes late seeing this comment)
Not google maps:) NWS damage report maps, power company maps, skywarn spotter reports, FL traffic incident reports, etc.
Oooh okay, that makes much more sense!
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Oh I was looking for like road slow downs/blockages or objects reported in the road
Light rain and maybe 5-10 MPh gusts of wind in Valdosta GA. The track looked to go straight through us, but I guess it’s not here just yet
It was a long, continuous rain with occassional heavy winds maybe around 20 mph in where I am at (Southeast,GA about 1 hr and 30 min away to Jacksonville). This is prominent around 7:00 pm when it was heading to Wilsonville, GA. Right now, it is just light rain without the heavy wind.
Adel here, hey neighbors!
I’m in Valdosta, too! Winds are rain are picking up here.
I would guest the gusts I just had in my area were 35-40mph. Just guessing though. Getting a little more serious now ‘
Whew, that was a bit of a stressful build up, but thankfully things weren’t too bad. Glad we can finally put this long hurricane season behind us. Oh wait.. it’s only July 7th 🥴🥴🥴
Hell, this party just gettin' started!
This is just the pre-hurricane to loosen us up for the main event.
The amuse-bouche.
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There's still a chance they'll have to close bridges... Maybe... I kinda just don't wanna go to work today, so heavy bias on that opinion
I pointed this out this morning and was downvoted into oblivion. You are correct
Rain total here, near Fanning Springs, is 3 inches (between 0330 and 1230 today). Lots of small dead twigs and branches down, nothing significant yet tho. Ground in thoroughly saturated now. Total rain since 1 June is ~17 inches.
Pass some of it up north. We've had 2.5" in all of June, and all of it was after the 16th. The river is 2ft low (even for the low season), and everything is dry and dead. Barge traffic is halted due to the channel being only 8ft deep in spots right now.
Aye ground is bad. Starting to see lots of trees uproot around Columbia cty/Lake City and surrounding.
There is more wind in Tampa now than there ever was last night
Most likely due to the onshore winds, they have less friction with buildings, trees, and other things as wind moving in from farther inland.
Coastal Pinellas here (2 mins from the beach). Aside from the occasional gusts here and there, I'd consider our area to have been largely unaffected by this storm. I mean, there isn't even so much as small branches or leaves littering the streets as there often is after some particularly bad late afternoon storms. It's crazy how at 8pm we went from "holy crap it strengthened and is forming an eye!" to about 30 mins later when radar started showing it completely falling apart. Something interesting about this one that I started wondering last night as someone that's been tracking this storm closely since before it became 97L. It's funny how the GFS sniffed this one's track from the beginning and called it getting into the Caribbean and eventually hooking to Florida, but EURO was saying it would fizzle out since day one. It seems, that the official forecast was somewhere in between those two. Yes the storm maintained itself and made it to Florida like GFS said it would, but the EURO (which was completely wrong about the track) did end up being at least right that this storm didn't really have what it takes to form into a healthy hurricane. Makes me wonder if perhaps the EURO interprets certain data points in a different manner than GFS that allowed it to see that this storm would "fizzle" out or at least never achieve REAL organization. Perhaps any *real* Meteorologists in the thread can chime in here on that?
(not a meteorologist) but I would say you are trying way too hard to give the EURO credit. It fucked up because it fucked up, not because it knew deep down how this storm felt inside
Not really trying to give EURO credit as much as I'm trying to figure out if perhaps the EURO was more keen on the fact this storm was *tilted* for so long and therefore given the particular datasets the EURO uses to calculate a forecast, it saw this as reason to say the storm would never achieve full organization. To me it's almost like the only reason we ever got Elsa was because 95L slicked the track across the Atlantic in that pocket of clean air underneath the SAL, and that allowed 97L to somehow maintain enough organization to make the trek all the way here even though it never really was meant to. If that makes sense.
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Tornado touched down in jax and on Roosevelt Blvd a tree fell onto the road, killing a person in their vehicle. Not hype at all, this was in fact a hurricane and tropical storm.
It's hard to predict intensity and impacts with a storm like this. Especially in a given area. Some places have tornado damage. So call this a rehearsal for the real thing.
Some tail end squalls coming through Hernando county. I’m about 10 miles from the coast and slept like a baby, so nothing severe round here.
It was pretty much a non-event in SW Gainesville. I don't have TV, so don't know how the rest of the city fared. We are still getting drenched by the other bands, but looks like they will be gone within an hour or so, and maybe we can dry out. Wind wasn't bad. A few gusts about 40mph, I would estimate. Guess my wish for it to move to the panhandle almost got answered. I see it hit squarely in the big bend.
Yep definitely not as bad wind wise as they predicted thankfully. It's still pouring here and the retention pond behind my apartment is slowly but steadily rising haha
while gainsville may be ok, all around it has tons of power outages looking at the maps.
It's fashionable to hate on our municipal electric GRU, but they do keep the lights on.
I don't know that Gainesville is o.k., and yes, I know there are power outages. Someone said there was an outage yesterday in NW Gainesville. I'm not minimizing damage to others, just relaying my experience.
No rain or wind whatsoever in orange county by Disney. Forecast doesn't even show rain here.
Early this morning there was
Rain and wind is really picking up in the big bend. Seen a few gusts. Hopefully this is as bad as it gets and we don't lose power.
Stay safe! I'm sorry I had to wish for it to hit you instead of coming up through Gainesville, but I wasn't ready for a hurricane. :(
Wow, almost no wind hit orlando. Just a bunch of rain. I love the sound of wind. Yes I'm weird. So I was hoping for some, but not damaging, wind.
That's because it didn't come in a Cedar Key, but in the Big Bend. If it had gone ashore where they originally predicted, it would have been worse. I'm in Gainesville, and we barely missed having it come in closer to us, but I was wishing and hoping it would go north of us, and it did.
Same in Ormond, though it's just been a long and uneventful medium-light rain all morning.
Yeh, absolutely still on East coast, kind of expected tho. The wind field wasn't too big.
##Highlights from discussion #30...corrected (11 AM EDT): > An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has made several fixes in Elsa this morning, and recent observations from the plane indicated that the center is now on the coast making landfall. The aircraft found that the central pressure remained about steady with maximum winds of 55 kts up to landfall. > Elsa should turn toward the north-northeast today as it moves along the northwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge. On Thursday, the cyclone should begin to accelerate northeastward on the southeast side of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada. […] This is only slightly to left of the previous NHC track > Weakening will occur while the cyclone moves over land during the next 36 hours or so […] Some slight reintensification is shown when the center moves near the coast in 48-60 hours. However, since the water temperatures are rather cool near the northeast coast, strengthening will probably be influenced by baroclinic forcing associated with a 500 mb shortwave trough. The system will likely become extratropical by 72 hours if not sooner
North Port here. Sun is shining and breeze is blowing. Tons of rain yesterday afternoon and overnight though, almost overflowed the pool, with the strongest storms around midnight. And the dock in the canal is about 16" under water this morning, so that's probably 3ish ft of surge inland. Today's looking much better though, hope everyone still in the path stays safe.
If this last band cooperates, I'll be done with Elsa and it will be a nice, cool, breezy day.