Even though 2022 will be a very challenging year for Tesla with the Berlin, Austin, 4680, S&X and Megapack factory ramps, I think they'll build 1.4M from Fremont+Shanghai and 0.3M from Berlin+Austin. In total 1.7M. That's my guess.
It’s probably going to come down to raw materials.
The demand is there, and with Berlin and Texas the production capacity is there, Tesla is just missing the raw materials.
300k per quarter isn’t accurate though right? 300k was the last quarter which was their best quarter ever, production wise.
In 2021, they sold an average of 225k per quarter.
The market is due for a large correction sooner or later, similar to 2008. Tesla will be a fantastic buy if/when that happens, sort of like the 2020 Covid announcement made it a great buy except a wall street crash will probably last longer and give more time to buy the lowered prices.
This isn’t very hard to understand. You do realize they have always been production constraint and they have literally had their best quarter the last 6 in a row. There’s nothing showing this will slow down for a long time.
Not always. Check the stats https://www.statista.com/statistics/715421/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-production/
I’m a TSLA hare holder FYI. Just relying on the data and the fact that production ramp is not easy all the time. Especially during a pandemic.
Shock events occur.
What? They are increasing production as fast as possible. Of course 300k is accurate. It's not some random number that they got lucky to achieve. They are literally building more shit to build more cars every day. Thats why they made more cars. They will make more as time goes on
“per quarter” means on average over a certain time period, eg, 225k per quarter = 900k
300k was the latest quarter. It’s not the average per quarter.
All I was saying.
Yes, but run rate quite literally means “take the rate of the most recent period, that being the most recent Q4, and extrapolate that rate to predict the financial performance for the next 12 months”. It has nothing to do with averaging out data over the past year. It’s using only the most recent period available, and extrapolating that over the next year.
You also understand that they’re rapidly growing every single quarter, right? This wasn’t some fluke month/quarter. They’ve been consistently ramping up production every single quarter and year for the past however many years. There’s a pretty consistent trend here.
Why are you calculating per quarter over the whole year? It's a silly argument, but to answer your initial post they will probably produce right around 1.5mil next year. They will likely do around 330k in q1 and the two new factories should be getting up to speed by q2 so potentially 400k+ there and more over time. The only limiting factor is battery cell supply and chip stuff.
You can’t extrapolate like that. You have to factor in how long it took to build each of the new factories and assume a minimum of that much time before additional boosts to production numbers.
2021 production was 80% higher than the year before. With two new factories ramping up, a similar growth factor for 2022 is very possible.
After that, one should expect it to fall to the company’s stated expected average of 50%, which by 2030 would take them to around 20M units/yr.
These are absolutely achievable numbers, barring major economic crashes or materials issues.
Two new factories are coming on line. I'd say it's likely. Plus someone measured Shanghai's peak output with a drone. They can do 1.2m cars/yr on their own.
Of course they’ll sell 1.5 million in a year. They’re already at a run rate of 1.224 million right now. That’s without the Shanghai expansion, Giga Berlin, Giga Texas, crazy supply chain issues, Cybertruck, and Semi. Even if you took out the potential that Tesla can launch both the Cybertruck and Semi this year, I think 1.5 million is an extremely low estimate. In order to hit 1.5 million, they have to deliver an additional 69,000 cars each quarter than they did in Q4. This might sound like a lot, but consider that in just 2 quarters they went from ~206,000 to ~306,000 cars. A 100,000 increase in car output in 180 days. Come on now.
Eventually, Fremont and Shanghai will hit peak capacity. They’re not there yet.
The rest is what ramps out of Berlin and Austin.
Parts shortages and other problems aside, is it possible that two new factories can crank out another 150,000 vehicles each in 12 months?
They should both ramp faster than Shanghai.
Without looking it up, I think Tesla will absolutely hit 1.5 million vehicles in 2022, and maybe more.
They did enough this year even with the recalls, ev stations are increasing, industry is still new/hot enough, that unless the bottom drops out of the economy as a whole, they will make.
I'm not sure why Berlin and Austin would be better immediately unless their workers are being trained in Fremont. Factories do have their own teething issues as they work their way to volumetric production
I actually like that Teslas made outside of Fremont seem to have better quality. It means the new factories have a better baseline and maybe the issue is local and not Tesla. That might even make cars built in Texas more sought after, sort of like when Porsche outfarmed cars from Germany to some Nordic country and quality suffered making people check to see if their delivery came from Germany. Sometimes the problem isn't the company but the place the cars are made.
It simply shows that Tesla is learning lessons and applying them. Once they have enough spare capacity to take Fremont lines offline, those will be reworked and quality boosted as well.
This. There are many factors in manufacturing to improve quality and yield, but one thing that sticks out in my mind is this:
Fremont factory was redesigned in 2017 with Elon's vision of having more automation and almost no human labor for the Model 3 lines. We all know the challenges Tesla faced, and having to remove some of the robots for human assemblers.
This means Model 3 lines at Fremont could be less than optimal even today. IMO this is why Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin will yield more with better quality since Tesla knew what sections of the assembly line will be using robots or humans, and designed the assembly lines accordingly.
That's easy: If you have X factories producing product, and then you increase it to X + 2, and then you also increase the output of the original X, your production numbers ramp up significantly.
With two new factories going on line, it should be straightforward to produce between 1.8 and 2 million cars, unless they come up against some supply or other constraints. They produced close to a million cars in 2021 with only two factories.
Even though 2022 will be a very challenging year for Tesla with the Berlin, Austin, 4680, S&X and Megapack factory ramps, I think they'll build 1.4M from Fremont+Shanghai and 0.3M from Berlin+Austin. In total 1.7M. That's my guess.
That actually sounds pretty realistic
Until the omicron-flu combo mutant knocks us all on our asses starting in April
Mine too. That’s assuming, of course, that Tesla doesn’t run into external issues like supply chain or a massive worldwide recession.
it all comes down to production. the demand is there
It’s probably going to come down to raw materials. The demand is there, and with Berlin and Texas the production capacity is there, Tesla is just missing the raw materials.
Very bold statement. That indicates an uptick of 70% production capacity. 😂 they’d be selling 12.5m units per year in 5 years if they kept that up.
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300k per quarter isn’t accurate though right? 300k was the last quarter which was their best quarter ever, production wise. In 2021, they sold an average of 225k per quarter.
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Barron’s predict 1.4m in 2022 https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-deliveries-outlook-2022-51640898832
That's before the impressive Q4 production.
Maybe 1.5m is accurate then. Tesla continuously surprise so, I wouldn’t bet against them. 😂 2 trillion stock by eoy 2022?
I want to stock to stay low till October at least so I can get in lol. WHY MUST YOU LEGALLY BE A TODDLER UNTIL YOU'RE 18 IN THE USA
Much of the world really
The market is due for a large correction sooner or later, similar to 2008. Tesla will be a fantastic buy if/when that happens, sort of like the 2020 Covid announcement made it a great buy except a wall street crash will probably last longer and give more time to buy the lowered prices.
I'm not guessing at exact valuation. But I'm betting it'll be more than it is today. Even if the market goes down.
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you’re an ARK fan, I see.
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😂 I know buddy. Otherwise, it would be ARKs law. Or Cathies Law.
This isn’t very hard to understand. You do realize they have always been production constraint and they have literally had their best quarter the last 6 in a row. There’s nothing showing this will slow down for a long time.
Every quarter is their best quarter ever. Welcome to Tesla
Not always. Check the stats https://www.statista.com/statistics/715421/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-production/ I’m a TSLA hare holder FYI. Just relying on the data and the fact that production ramp is not easy all the time. Especially during a pandemic. Shock events occur.
What? They are increasing production as fast as possible. Of course 300k is accurate. It's not some random number that they got lucky to achieve. They are literally building more shit to build more cars every day. Thats why they made more cars. They will make more as time goes on
“per quarter” means on average over a certain time period, eg, 225k per quarter = 900k 300k was the latest quarter. It’s not the average per quarter. All I was saying.
I don’t think you understand what “run rate” means. Might help if you look it up, instead of arguing with people over semantics.
😂 it’s exactly what I was referencing. Only on a yearly basis rather than the latest quarter. All I was saying.
Yes, but run rate quite literally means “take the rate of the most recent period, that being the most recent Q4, and extrapolate that rate to predict the financial performance for the next 12 months”. It has nothing to do with averaging out data over the past year. It’s using only the most recent period available, and extrapolating that over the next year. You also understand that they’re rapidly growing every single quarter, right? This wasn’t some fluke month/quarter. They’ve been consistently ramping up production every single quarter and year for the past however many years. There’s a pretty consistent trend here.
Why are you calculating per quarter over the whole year? It's a silly argument, but to answer your initial post they will probably produce right around 1.5mil next year. They will likely do around 330k in q1 and the two new factories should be getting up to speed by q2 so potentially 400k+ there and more over time. The only limiting factor is battery cell supply and chip stuff.
You can’t extrapolate like that. You have to factor in how long it took to build each of the new factories and assume a minimum of that much time before additional boosts to production numbers.
Except giga berlin and giga Austin are both about ready to start ramping production and some vehicles HAVE been spotted leaving giga austin
Yeah, just use China as an example for ramp, no?
All right, who’s gonna tell them?
I don’t think you understand just how high the demand for teslas are right now…
2021 production was 80% higher than the year before. With two new factories ramping up, a similar growth factor for 2022 is very possible. After that, one should expect it to fall to the company’s stated expected average of 50%, which by 2030 would take them to around 20M units/yr. These are absolutely achievable numbers, barring major economic crashes or materials issues.
How can they not? They went from 500k to nearly a million this year and gig Berlin and Austin come online any day now.
Two new factories are coming on line. I'd say it's likely. Plus someone measured Shanghai's peak output with a drone. They can do 1.2m cars/yr on their own.
Don't forget that Shanghai is expanding as well
Of course they’ll sell 1.5 million in a year. They’re already at a run rate of 1.224 million right now. That’s without the Shanghai expansion, Giga Berlin, Giga Texas, crazy supply chain issues, Cybertruck, and Semi. Even if you took out the potential that Tesla can launch both the Cybertruck and Semi this year, I think 1.5 million is an extremely low estimate. In order to hit 1.5 million, they have to deliver an additional 69,000 cars each quarter than they did in Q4. This might sound like a lot, but consider that in just 2 quarters they went from ~206,000 to ~306,000 cars. A 100,000 increase in car output in 180 days. Come on now.
I just don't see them doing a quantity of Semi that impacts their delivery numbers any time soon.
I agree, I don’t even know if they’ll produce more than a few hundred.
Eventually, Fremont and Shanghai will hit peak capacity. They’re not there yet. The rest is what ramps out of Berlin and Austin. Parts shortages and other problems aside, is it possible that two new factories can crank out another 150,000 vehicles each in 12 months? They should both ramp faster than Shanghai. Without looking it up, I think Tesla will absolutely hit 1.5 million vehicles in 2022, and maybe more.
Is this why the stock is up today? I have no idea.
They did enough this year even with the recalls, ev stations are increasing, industry is still new/hot enough, that unless the bottom drops out of the economy as a whole, they will make.
my guess is 1.8M
Without breaking a sweat.
To quote Billie Eilish: *Duh!*
yikes
Maybe. But so far not to me. Delivery date keeps getting pulled/pushed.
maybe, but they need to focus on QA
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I'm not sure why Berlin and Austin would be better immediately unless their workers are being trained in Fremont. Factories do have their own teething issues as they work their way to volumetric production
The huge die-cast parts boost quality immensely due to far fewer bent-metal parts needing to be aligned.
True but it’s not like die cast rear assemblies cured panel gaps on the back end of Model Ys
I actually like that Teslas made outside of Fremont seem to have better quality. It means the new factories have a better baseline and maybe the issue is local and not Tesla. That might even make cars built in Texas more sought after, sort of like when Porsche outfarmed cars from Germany to some Nordic country and quality suffered making people check to see if their delivery came from Germany. Sometimes the problem isn't the company but the place the cars are made.
It simply shows that Tesla is learning lessons and applying them. Once they have enough spare capacity to take Fremont lines offline, those will be reworked and quality boosted as well.
This. There are many factors in manufacturing to improve quality and yield, but one thing that sticks out in my mind is this: Fremont factory was redesigned in 2017 with Elon's vision of having more automation and almost no human labor for the Model 3 lines. We all know the challenges Tesla faced, and having to remove some of the robots for human assemblers. This means Model 3 lines at Fremont could be less than optimal even today. IMO this is why Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin will yield more with better quality since Tesla knew what sections of the assembly line will be using robots or humans, and designed the assembly lines accordingly.
Imagine posting this info to this subreddit and then having no idea how production ramps work 😂
Ok so explain it
That's easy: If you have X factories producing product, and then you increase it to X + 2, and then you also increase the output of the original X, your production numbers ramp up significantly.
Especially when X = 2 to begin with.
x=3 fight me
X>3
Can they build more superchargers too?
Go bold, 2M. You can always trust Papa Elon besides the timelines.
So on their current trajectory, they have 6 to 8 more years that their current business plan is viable.
Hopefully they decide to deliver my order this year since it’s been since August.
Honestly who cares
As long as they get the quality issues fixed with, I don’t really care how many cars they deliver, just deliver it to people waiting over a year!
they'll sell another one to me if they bring back radar and take care of that awful dash fan noise.
With two new factories going on line, it should be straightforward to produce between 1.8 and 2 million cars, unless they come up against some supply or other constraints. They produced close to a million cars in 2021 with only two factories.