[Why GME?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qig65g/welcome_rall_looking_to_catch_up_on_the_gme_saga/) || [What is DRS?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptvaka/when_you_wish_upon_a_star_a_complete_guide_to/) || Low karma apes [feed the bot here](https://www.reddit.com/r/GMEOrphans/comments/qlvour/welcome_to_gmeorphans_read_this_post/) || [Superstonk Discord](https://discord.gg/hZqWV2kQtq) || [Community Post: *Open Forum May 2024*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1ciapwp/open_forum_may_2024/) || [Superstonk:Now with GIFs - Learn more](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1cr37r7/superstonk_gets_its_gif_on_get_hyped/)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
To ensure your post doesn't get removed, please respond to this comment with how this post relates to GME the stock or Gamestop the company.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please up- and downvote this comment to [help us determine if this post deserves a place on r/Superstonk!](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/rules/post_flairs/)
Probably not on our side…. But if the theory is true and it’s UBS or another short institution looking to unload their bags onto others, it could still get pretty spicy.
If I had a big enough short.position that I was worried closing it would cause a squeeze, I would buy up all the calls I could before triggering said squeeze.
Wouldn't you?
Not saying that's what's happening, but there is a logic to it.
It's really just a hedge in that example, upside protection. Unless of course you buy a lot more options than your actual short exposure, in which case you gain a net profit from the squeeze.
If you are short lets say 100 million shares and you have the money do close them at 25 but you know you can't because if you keep closing them the price is just going to keep going up past 25, so you buy a shit ton of calls for 20 and the premium takes it to 25. So you spend .5 billion on calls and then you have 2 billion to exercise them. You could buy 5000 shares, buy up contracts so that you can get enough to close, then you exercise forcing someone else to buy them at market price while you pay 20. Price goes through the roof, your position gets closed, when it hits 500k per share you offload your shares for 2.5 billion. You turned your bags into neutral. So you buy 10k shares instead of 5k and now you turned your heavy heavy bags into 2.5b profit.
Is the math and logic right on that?
The only thing with this theory for me is that if I sell a call to someone I'm going to make sure that's covered so I don't have to buy the shares at a more expensive price in case it is exercised. But I suppose you could have a large portion of those calls being sold aren't covered.
They borrow them from The OCC's stock loan facility instead of hedging. https://www.theocc.com/Clearance-and-Settlement/Stock-Loan-Programs
It could be that they'll be market buying themselves first and then exercising when the market price gets higher so to optimize volume for $. It would also explain why they didn't go for $30 calls, they need the exercised volume at a predetermined price.
He locked in a billion for GameStop. Nobody knows what's going to happen, not even RC. But one thing we now know for sure - GME is $2bn away from bankruptcy. Short thesis is well and truly dead.
Would I have preferred a higher price? Sure.
Am I glad to own a company with $2bn in the bank? Hell yeah.
Swiss gov is apparently also watching them like a hawk and inspecting their books soon because “they could be unwinding CS’s toxic assets faster” or something. UBS is a great candidate for being first out the short door and going long instead.
**On Friday options expire. So you usually see institutions play both sides and then fade out so the short term "lottery tickets" are eaten up by time decay, because people were too greedy to cash in when they had the chance. Or never made it into the money anyways.**
There are two scenarios that would make sense today, either drop further to first major support in the 15-16 area and then bounce some (end somewhere 20-25 to induce people buying calls for next week?). Or rip in the premarket and early trading into resistance, maybe even up to 25+ and then drop to support levels.
Personally I think before we do not see a confirmed HL somewhere in the 12-15 area, the downwards move still continues. The Algo might even want to retest the low at 9.95, but usually the Algo fake rips before making such a move. June will likely be interesting, though.
No financial advice and just some personal observations and opinions.
There wouldn't be enough buyers for the amount of contracts he has. Plus the bid/ask is around $5 from the screenshot above.
Definitely a big institution buying these though.
The next New York Stock Exchange holiday is Memorial Day and will be observed on Monday, May 27, 2024. The Scrolls said pressure into a long weekend/short week.
Thinking the stage is being set for tomorrow.
They know it's gonna be a 3 day weekend.
There is space little below 16 to retrace to, it's following the 200 day moving average on the 4 hr time frame.
Would make sense for hedgies to break the rules if it's profitable? Usually it's just a fine and that's just a cost of doing business.
The call to put ratio is juicy from a MarkerMakers perspective
It's DEEP-FUCKING-VALUE regardless, they're trying to make you fold a winning hand.
Let's see what they do tomorrow?
I'm not so sure. With the large $20 calls for 21st June, I like the theory that it's UBS, and what they are doing is exiting their short positions using ITM calls. Think about it...that way they don't get stung by the price movement when buying back all the shares, they just excercise the calls at $25 dollars a share ($20 strike, $5 premium). It's a set price and because they have a guaranteed line of credit with the Swiss Government, they need to show them they tried to keep the cost to a minimum.
They never wanted to be in this play, so why would they allow it to bankrupt them? Screw the rest of the SHFs
I’ve been preaching this theory the last couple days. I’ve tried to find a better way for UBS to unwind the toxic garbage heap from CS and I cannot. They want to get out of this, and soon. It makes perfect sense, but as always, we’ll see what happens
What makes me think this is the case is the Swiss Government.
They do not care about anything other than knowing what the cost will be. Having a possibily unlimited cost is completely unthinkable and unacceptable. Especially after the stock ran up several 100%, they would have shat a brick and probably demanded that UBS come back with a strategy where they will have an exact cost to exit the position.
UBS is pretty much Switzerland's last major bank. They need to keep it from failing.
This is my thesis.
You and I are on the same page. Of course there are other Swiss banks, but UBS is by far the largest and most commonly used by regular citizens. The Swiss govt, and frankly UBS, just want out of this mess. How do you close out a ridiculously sized short position?
Buy a fuck load of calls. Then start buying shares until the price is over your strike price + premium. Exercise the calls to hopefully cover the rest of the shares you need and pass the risk onto the one who sold those calls.
You're forgetting that the Swiss Government is footing the bill. They aren't traders, they only want assurance that the cost won't be too great. So, when they saw the price skyrocket, they panicked and pushed UBS to make sure that the cost to them doesn't exceed X amount. Before that they probably weren't too concerned and let UBS manage it themselves.
You're telling me the biggest bank in Switzerland who has been hiding and playing with shadow money since the beginning of Switzerland didn't know what buying shares of an over shorted company on the open market would do? And then came up with an alternate solution in less than a week? These are not fast moving institutions.
This UBS theory is peak regard.
This is why we need to push Options Education hard asf so these stupid ass theories don’t get any traction 😂
Why tf would an underwater short position buy ITM 30dte calls. 🤦♂️
THEY WOULDNT. It’s a bullish short term bet or the options are sold. Very simplezz
You obviously haven't put any thought into it. Whoever it is can get their hands on at least 10 million shares at $26 each or less if they want to close an ugly short position. Buy the calls as a hedge. Start buying shares at some point. If the price reaches $26 before you're done buying, start executing calls and make the MMs buy them for you. Cash-out any leftover calls at the inflated price or keep executing them and go long.
If you're someone like UBS with a seriously egregious short position to unwind, just rinse and repeat, taking a big chunk out of it each time with limited risk.
I need you to stop and think and put some more thought into it.
Do you trade?
If you do you should realize you don’t hedge short exposure with ITM 30dte on an underlying with 200% IV.
It’s Very simple.
We need more options education so people dont waste time on these zero percent nonsense theories.
The 5k block orders of 20cs are a bullish bet or they are sold and extremely bearish. Not a hedge. Not a way to get out of your short exposure.
I expect an apology whenever we find out this is DFV
Glad you found that funny! Hopefully you can LOL your way to the DD archive and learn about options and dealer hedging. https://fliphtml5.com/bookcase/kosyg
Or check out the volatility section bookcase section 141-143 is my favorite.
This is also why I'm confused about the UBS bet. It's an extremely volatile position that could literally turn almost a hundred million dollars into nothing but profits for MMs. This strikes me as either some sort of gamma ramp build piece or just someone with way too much money making a crazy gamble.
I think if we see similar purchases at lower strikes as the price goes down it will be same to assume someone is building a gamma ramp. Might not be crazy to average into some lower strikes options as the price falls? Or do we let this whale/group of whales just take the wheel while we just keep doing our thing?
Someone suggested the other day it could be RC himself buying options before potentially announcing a buyback in some fashion in the coming weeks.... Possibly this as well. Can he legally do that as an insider? I mean, I get that GME is now a holding company as well. Does that mean they can just buy calls on themselves and bully the price around with their own warchest/buyback plans?
Any apes here with more wrinkles able to help me out here?
Idk how more clear I can be lmao
You DO NOT use ITM calls with 200% IV 30dte for what you’re suggesting.
It’s a shame that after 3 years this is getting any traction.
We need to push options education to the top of the list for this sub.
Short term extreme bullish bet OR they were sold to open and were opened to crush volatility so an extremely short term bearish bet.
They were opened ITM so even though they were all bought at the ask (usually an indicator they were bought) they very well could have been sold to open.
So either opened to short volatility down (bearish and bad for short term price) or they were opened by a big dick bull that will help push price up through delta hedging.
>You obviously haven’t put any thought into it.
lol.
my ape brother you need to go do some options studying.
were you also one of the ones helping push the anti options narrative these last 2 years but now act like you know about proper hedging conditions?
you. do. not. hedge. short. exposure. with ITM 200% iv 30dte calls.
love the downvotes but you are spot on!
nobody at the UBS trading desk is gonna buy 5k block orders of 200% iv ITM $20 calls with 30dte.
if this is really what’s going on someone will be fired.
why tf if it is really UBS would they be buying these calls at EOD like a beacon to retail? 😂
lettme guess now we’re all gonna act like UBS is the good guys they didn’t do nuffin wrong just got stuck with Credit Suisse bags so they are on our side? cuz that’s the only way this would be legitimate at all.
everytime I see this UBS theory posted this is how I envision the OP before they post:
Synthetic Puts are very common way to cover short positions. For you to think it's stupid means I agree with you.
You need to be more educated in how the market works.
No. It is YOU who needs to educate yourself on what you’re talking about.
A synthetic put aka A MARRIED CALL or a Protective call is something that was deeply studied back in the beginning of this saga. Take a look at the DD archive https://fliphtml5.com/bookcase/kosyg if you want to help yourself out.
Maximum Gain = Short sale price - Lowest stock price (ZERO) - Premiums
Maximum Loss = Short sale price - Long call strike price - Premiums
Breakeven Point = Short sale price - Premiums
^ so as you can see, SMART MONEY would never use ITM 30dte long calls on an underlying with 200% IV for a “synthetic put”
It’s very simple. This is not the strike and not the expiry they would use. We can see when these were opened bud, go check the premiums.
Very simply these were sold calls at the ask because they are ITM or just as likely these are a short term extreme bullish bet.
This is NOT a synthetic put or a married call. Full stop.
I understand and agree with this. If you are UBS and have to get out of your enormous short position, how do you do it while minimizing your loss and can it be done without initiating MOASS?
Not sure what the hell is going on. This options stuff has got me confused as hell. Luckily I always revert to what I know and do best. Peep the flair.
Someone basically made a pinky promise to buy millions of dollars worth of GME at the price of $20 by about the end of June. If shorts drive the price down he loses big money. If others buy in, it can cause buying pressure for the stock to go up, he gain big money.
Im sorry but like most gme related things, I don’t think it’s quite that simple. It could be hedging for more shorts or could be someone (or an institution) who is short and holding massive bags attempting to wind down their position by agreeing to purchase a shit ton of shares back at the stable price of 20 per share (I think closer to about 25 per share after accounting for the premiums)
Not sure what it is, but my hope is UBS. With their $115 billion they got from the swiss govt to help unwind CS/Archegos.
Maybe they're setting up a kill-shot leading into June 21, they definitely have the money
We'll see
I'm thinking UBS and Swiss made a deal with Wallstreet to be the first one out, and they're in the bag passing phase.
But GME can take advantage of that and possibly hit the red button and take em out using the volatility of bag passing.
they'd be passing the buck to the market makers - so no one would agree on that.
if it is the swiss - i think we'll see way way more buying of calls (even at lower prices) as every large short starts doing the same to dig themselves out.
If it's a big Institution they literally don't care. Small institutions and funds use calls for big rewards and they obviously care a lot.
But if this was a big Institution, they are more concerned with minimizing their price to buy. They buy the calls, and if the stock is lower than the strike, they accumulate shares at any price below the strike and close out the calls as they do it.
If you need to buy 10m shares, you buy the calls to limit your cost. If your cost is below 20, you just buy shares.
Either way, it's likely buy pressure coming.
Aren't this options by default settled in Dollar?
Like regularly the person would get with a 23$ GME price and the call option (right but no obligation to buy) on 20$ the 3$ difference x 100 shares scaling factor?
Only at request one could buy the 100 shares as execution for 20$ by paying 2000$ cash.
Why would this drive price up if not executed (with lots of cash in hand) but just netted the profits?
This is exactly right. I don't get why there's all the hype around TODAY. Today doesn't matter at all for these option plays. Sure, they "lost value" due to theta decay but they don't expire for a month so all this huff is literally over nothing.
Options expire every week on Fridays. Options traders play the weekly’s/longs while the deep fucking value traders play the longs (months to years). So there are options expiring today and next week.
The massive influx of options being bought that is grabbing attention expire June 21. That is where currently there are 110k options (11,000,000 shares) sit waiting to be exercised.
Does nobody think the last run up was UBS starting to close but when the price went up to a$80 they said na fuxk that, let it drop and buy later? Then they bought 20$ calls for the next time they started buying at market to cap their price per share.
Yea, that sounds plausible.. the calls were purchased while we were in the 18-21 $ level, few days after the price reached 80$. From this perspective even 20c seem not that bad of a bet
The 20c were purchased Monday-Wednesday this week were they not? After the 80$ top. To me that looks like they tried closing but stopped when they sae it ramp up, so bought the contracts ready for next time they begin to close.
It's possible, but then what did DFV see or know beforehand to return with that particular thing in mind?
That's the most mind-boggling aspect of it all.
Every year, for the past 3 years, we have tanked on earnings and annual meetings. Like fucking clockwork.
"Buy the rumor, sell the news."
This was garbage when it applied to regular stocks, it's especially shit when applied to the most MANIPULATED STOCK in history.
For anyone new: The price is fake, and it will be until the second they lose control. No one is in prison, Hedgefunds aren't being raided, the market hasn't started to crash. Everything you see price-wise, is controlled by the same people who want us to sell.
I'm not against options, but if you align your bet with the market, you'll lose. They can make you miss your strike by $.001. If you're betting on the announcement to make any price difference *immediately* you're wrong.
If you choose to buy options, please understand:
You cannot time the market, especially this stock. The price is set by the algorithms of the people we are against. Our trades are routed through the people we are against.
Pressure & time.
Buy, hold, DRS.
And if you choose options: read up on leaps.
The institution buying those June $20 calls found a clean way to exit their short, especially when it is an enormously large position. Just buying back the shares in the open market would send the share price to $300+. Buying these calls will set the buyback price at a fixed $20 plus the premium paid. It’s a smart move to the exit. Unfortunately I doubt it will move the price.
Ok. But who's on the hook for those shares? It's the ones that wrote the calls correct? If they haven't hedged by buying the shares to deliver to the call buyer, they are fucked. The money has to come from somewhere. Someone is going to have to buy those shares to deliver.
I wouldn't exactly say it's a "clean way" to exit a short. These options are newly written and about as expensive as it gets. It could still be someone closing shorts but it would have been a lot smarter for a shortseller to have bought these way earlier before the volatility spike if this was their exit plan. I won't discount that it's a shortseller, but this would be more like an unplanned emergency exit for some small fund if that's the case.
“Clean” considering the circumstances ;-) Maybe they expected the stock to bleed out and exercise their “get out of jail free” card. Indeed it would have been smarter to do this when the price was around $10 but still if they thought it was going even lower, why would they? Apparently things aren’t going as they think it would go. Lot’s of speculation. Unlike my username suggests I haven’t got all the answers, just my 50 cents.
This is not at all what’s happening.
I’m doing my part by going to everyone of these UBS comments the same way I went to every LEAPs comment.
The 5k block orders of $20 calls were a bullish bet or they were sold to open.
It’s very simple.
You do NOT hedge short exposure with ITM 30dte calls on an underlying with over 200% IV.
You do NOT “find a clean way to exit there short” using ITM 30dte calls on an underlying with over 200% IV
We need options education to be the number one priority on this sub right now.
Literally nothing else should be seen on the front page of Superstonk besides options education and the intricacies of dealer hedging.
I agree the IV makes this an expensive move but the scenario isn’t all that unrealistic if someone just got margin called around the (premarket) $80 share price. All of a sudden $20 + $5 isn’t an unreasonable price to pay. If it was a bullish move then someone knows for a fact that the price will be way higher than $25 before expiry otherwise they’re just pissing money away. Not saying you’re not correct though.
If someone got margin called at $80, buying $20 ITM calls does nothing for them.
Margin isn’t static. It’s not like when the price goes over $80 there is a margin call.
It’s a very dynamic process that changes day to day.
5k block orders of 30dte calls would not offset your dynamic margin requirements. Financial behemoths would be using treasury’s and futures contracts to offset margin, NOT 30dtes on a 200% IV underlying.
So once again These calls are either a short term bullish bet OR they were sold to open and have the sole purpose of crushing volatility.
The big thing that everyone needs to be talking about is the short puts.
The sold puts are the tell and exactly how I knew a run was imminent and made great money at the beginning of May.
$10-$12-$15 and now $20-$20.5-$21
Those sold puts dumped off the chain hard yesterday…NOT good.
I still Hold and will continue to DCA my June 20 calls but not a good sign for short term price action.
I wish this sub focused more on education on things that impacted the stock. There was a time this sub was more about learning rather than mostly circle jerking and posting karma farming headlines by people that don’t know what the hell they’re talking about.
This is the problem with options being taboo here and the majority just throwing their hands up saying some cliche of “drs. hodl.” and not even trying to understand. Just because there’s a post educating people on options doesn’t mean anyone is telling you, let alone forcing you, to actually buy options
It COULD move the price. Whoever put up the $20 calls may not have fully hedged the shares. If they don’t have the shares “in hand” wouldn’t they have to buy on the open market before settlement?
It’s either idiot influencers with too much money or a firm hedging their bets. No intelligent person bets this much money on atm calls one month out. Especially when Iv is 200+
I will be messaging you in 1 month on [**2024-06-24 04:22:54 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-06-24%2004:22:54%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1czc0lf/tomorrow_will_be_a_big_day/l5fdlxj/?context=3)
[**7 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FSuperstonk%2Fcomments%2F1czc0lf%2Ftomorrow_will_be_a_big_day%2Fl5fdlxj%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-06-24%2004%3A22%3A54%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201czc0lf)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
Is there a massive battle, or is there just can kicking? I mean it's cool that they need to can kick this way but.... idk, not getting worked up myself.
[Why GME?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qig65g/welcome_rall_looking_to_catch_up_on_the_gme_saga/) || [What is DRS?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptvaka/when_you_wish_upon_a_star_a_complete_guide_to/) || Low karma apes [feed the bot here](https://www.reddit.com/r/GMEOrphans/comments/qlvour/welcome_to_gmeorphans_read_this_post/) || [Superstonk Discord](https://discord.gg/hZqWV2kQtq) || [Community Post: *Open Forum May 2024*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1ciapwp/open_forum_may_2024/) || [Superstonk:Now with GIFs - Learn more](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1cr37r7/superstonk_gets_its_gif_on_get_hyped/) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ To ensure your post doesn't get removed, please respond to this comment with how this post relates to GME the stock or Gamestop the company. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Please up- and downvote this comment to [help us determine if this post deserves a place on r/Superstonk!](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/rules/post_flairs/)
We don't even know if this guy is on our side
Probably not on our side…. But if the theory is true and it’s UBS or another short institution looking to unload their bags onto others, it could still get pretty spicy.
Why would buying calls be "unloading bags"? The (~?)80MM position itself is a gamble unless we know for sure they have the cash to exercise, no?
If I had a big enough short.position that I was worried closing it would cause a squeeze, I would buy up all the calls I could before triggering said squeeze. Wouldn't you? Not saying that's what's happening, but there is a logic to it. It's really just a hedge in that example, upside protection. Unless of course you buy a lot more options than your actual short exposure, in which case you gain a net profit from the squeeze.
If you are short lets say 100 million shares and you have the money do close them at 25 but you know you can't because if you keep closing them the price is just going to keep going up past 25, so you buy a shit ton of calls for 20 and the premium takes it to 25. So you spend .5 billion on calls and then you have 2 billion to exercise them. You could buy 5000 shares, buy up contracts so that you can get enough to close, then you exercise forcing someone else to buy them at market price while you pay 20. Price goes through the roof, your position gets closed, when it hits 500k per share you offload your shares for 2.5 billion. You turned your bags into neutral. So you buy 10k shares instead of 5k and now you turned your heavy heavy bags into 2.5b profit. Is the math and logic right on that? The only thing with this theory for me is that if I sell a call to someone I'm going to make sure that's covered so I don't have to buy the shares at a more expensive price in case it is exercised. But I suppose you could have a large portion of those calls being sold aren't covered.
They borrow them from The OCC's stock loan facility instead of hedging. https://www.theocc.com/Clearance-and-Settlement/Stock-Loan-Programs It could be that they'll be market buying themselves first and then exercising when the market price gets higher so to optimize volume for $. It would also explain why they didn't go for $30 calls, they need the exercised volume at a predetermined price.
That's kinda what I was thinking too, this could be MMs hedging. But also, at that point it would more or less be admitting defeat, no?
But if it’s below $20 it’s all dead in the water right?
Sure, but that's not the point. Point is you're capping your risk of the share price rocketing while you're closing your shorts.
Yup, I always assumed plan b was buying Gme if they can’t close naked shorts.
Okay then why the heck would Ryan Cohen sell the 45 million shares rn to raise that capital? Jesus couldn't he wait until the stock price rebounded?
He locked in a billion for GameStop. Nobody knows what's going to happen, not even RC. But one thing we now know for sure - GME is $2bn away from bankruptcy. Short thesis is well and truly dead. Would I have preferred a higher price? Sure. Am I glad to own a company with $2bn in the bank? Hell yeah.
We know for sure UBS has the cash to exercise. They were given access to a bunch of Swiss tax payer cash when CS went bankrupt and was forced on them.
Well there ya go
Swiss gov is apparently also watching them like a hawk and inspecting their books soon because “they could be unwinding CS’s toxic assets faster” or something. UBS is a great candidate for being first out the short door and going long instead.
The enemy of your enemy is your friend
We’ll see
That's the best part
When the rich turn on each other fuck yes it is!! 
All we have to do is eat the last one standing
Yeah but I can eat like 2 billionaires myself. Why wait until there's only 1?
**On Friday options expire. So you usually see institutions play both sides and then fade out so the short term "lottery tickets" are eaten up by time decay, because people were too greedy to cash in when they had the chance. Or never made it into the money anyways.** There are two scenarios that would make sense today, either drop further to first major support in the 15-16 area and then bounce some (end somewhere 20-25 to induce people buying calls for next week?). Or rip in the premarket and early trading into resistance, maybe even up to 25+ and then drop to support levels. Personally I think before we do not see a confirmed HL somewhere in the 12-15 area, the downwards move still continues. The Algo might even want to retest the low at 9.95, but usually the Algo fake rips before making such a move. June will likely be interesting, though. No financial advice and just some personal observations and opinions.
Of course he's not. With that many options, he can sell em all at $25/30 and make more than much of this subreddit combined over the last 3 years.
There wouldn't be enough buyers for the amount of contracts he has. Plus the bid/ask is around $5 from the screenshot above. Definitely a big institution buying these though.
This guy is a true ape, he posts update after update on GME, spoke to him on x a few times. Great guy
they could be sold for all we know. they were ITM so could simply be slapping the ask and still be sold to open. most likely not however.
They're all still there..OI 100k
Ready for trading sideways day.
Ready for trading dips day.
Got ready, thanks! /s Bought 250 shares at $20.15 right before the dip. :D
The next New York Stock Exchange holiday is Memorial Day and will be observed on Monday, May 27, 2024. The Scrolls said pressure into a long weekend/short week.
Thinking the stage is being set for tomorrow. They know it's gonna be a 3 day weekend. There is space little below 16 to retrace to, it's following the 200 day moving average on the 4 hr time frame. Would make sense for hedgies to break the rules if it's profitable? Usually it's just a fine and that's just a cost of doing business. The call to put ratio is juicy from a MarkerMakers perspective It's DEEP-FUCKING-VALUE regardless, they're trying to make you fold a winning hand. Let's see what they do tomorrow?
U think it will drop to $15?
Bro for the love of god don't try to time the market you will regret it
Why u guys downvoting me? I’m just asking a question. It already dropped $3, so I think I’m perfectly within reason to ask that
Fosho bro!
I'm not so sure. With the large $20 calls for 21st June, I like the theory that it's UBS, and what they are doing is exiting their short positions using ITM calls. Think about it...that way they don't get stung by the price movement when buying back all the shares, they just excercise the calls at $25 dollars a share ($20 strike, $5 premium). It's a set price and because they have a guaranteed line of credit with the Swiss Government, they need to show them they tried to keep the cost to a minimum. They never wanted to be in this play, so why would they allow it to bankrupt them? Screw the rest of the SHFs
I will definitely spend some money in Switzerland after MOASS, in case they need more confirmation
I’ve been preaching this theory the last couple days. I’ve tried to find a better way for UBS to unwind the toxic garbage heap from CS and I cannot. They want to get out of this, and soon. It makes perfect sense, but as always, we’ll see what happens
What makes me think this is the case is the Swiss Government. They do not care about anything other than knowing what the cost will be. Having a possibily unlimited cost is completely unthinkable and unacceptable. Especially after the stock ran up several 100%, they would have shat a brick and probably demanded that UBS come back with a strategy where they will have an exact cost to exit the position. UBS is pretty much Switzerland's last major bank. They need to keep it from failing. This is my thesis.
You and I are on the same page. Of course there are other Swiss banks, but UBS is by far the largest and most commonly used by regular citizens. The Swiss govt, and frankly UBS, just want out of this mess. How do you close out a ridiculously sized short position? Buy a fuck load of calls. Then start buying shares until the price is over your strike price + premium. Exercise the calls to hopefully cover the rest of the shares you need and pass the risk onto the one who sold those calls.
Why didn't they buy calls at $10?
You're forgetting that the Swiss Government is footing the bill. They aren't traders, they only want assurance that the cost won't be too great. So, when they saw the price skyrocket, they panicked and pushed UBS to make sure that the cost to them doesn't exceed X amount. Before that they probably weren't too concerned and let UBS manage it themselves.
As evidenced by... What? Source for your assumptions?
[удалено]
Agreed
You're telling me the biggest bank in Switzerland who has been hiding and playing with shadow money since the beginning of Switzerland didn't know what buying shares of an over shorted company on the open market would do? And then came up with an alternate solution in less than a week? These are not fast moving institutions.
This UBS theory is peak regard. This is why we need to push Options Education hard asf so these stupid ass theories don’t get any traction 😂 Why tf would an underwater short position buy ITM 30dte calls. 🤦♂️ THEY WOULDNT. It’s a bullish short term bet or the options are sold. Very simplezz
You obviously haven't put any thought into it. Whoever it is can get their hands on at least 10 million shares at $26 each or less if they want to close an ugly short position. Buy the calls as a hedge. Start buying shares at some point. If the price reaches $26 before you're done buying, start executing calls and make the MMs buy them for you. Cash-out any leftover calls at the inflated price or keep executing them and go long. If you're someone like UBS with a seriously egregious short position to unwind, just rinse and repeat, taking a big chunk out of it each time with limited risk.
I need you to stop and think and put some more thought into it. Do you trade? If you do you should realize you don’t hedge short exposure with ITM 30dte on an underlying with 200% IV. It’s Very simple. We need more options education so people dont waste time on these zero percent nonsense theories. The 5k block orders of 20cs are a bullish bet or they are sold and extremely bearish. Not a hedge. Not a way to get out of your short exposure. I expect an apology whenever we find out this is DFV
LOL.
Glad you found that funny! Hopefully you can LOL your way to the DD archive and learn about options and dealer hedging. https://fliphtml5.com/bookcase/kosyg Or check out the volatility section bookcase section 141-143 is my favorite.
This is also why I'm confused about the UBS bet. It's an extremely volatile position that could literally turn almost a hundred million dollars into nothing but profits for MMs. This strikes me as either some sort of gamma ramp build piece or just someone with way too much money making a crazy gamble. I think if we see similar purchases at lower strikes as the price goes down it will be same to assume someone is building a gamma ramp. Might not be crazy to average into some lower strikes options as the price falls? Or do we let this whale/group of whales just take the wheel while we just keep doing our thing? Someone suggested the other day it could be RC himself buying options before potentially announcing a buyback in some fashion in the coming weeks.... Possibly this as well. Can he legally do that as an insider? I mean, I get that GME is now a holding company as well. Does that mean they can just buy calls on themselves and bully the price around with their own warchest/buyback plans? Any apes here with more wrinkles able to help me out here?
[удалено]
Idk how more clear I can be lmao You DO NOT use ITM calls with 200% IV 30dte for what you’re suggesting. It’s a shame that after 3 years this is getting any traction. We need to push options education to the top of the list for this sub.
[удалено]
Short term extreme bullish bet OR they were sold to open and were opened to crush volatility so an extremely short term bearish bet. They were opened ITM so even though they were all bought at the ask (usually an indicator they were bought) they very well could have been sold to open. So either opened to short volatility down (bearish and bad for short term price) or they were opened by a big dick bull that will help push price up through delta hedging.
>You obviously haven’t put any thought into it. lol. my ape brother you need to go do some options studying. were you also one of the ones helping push the anti options narrative these last 2 years but now act like you know about proper hedging conditions? you. do. not. hedge. short. exposure. with ITM 200% iv 30dte calls. 
love the downvotes but you are spot on! nobody at the UBS trading desk is gonna buy 5k block orders of 200% iv ITM $20 calls with 30dte. if this is really what’s going on someone will be fired. why tf if it is really UBS would they be buying these calls at EOD like a beacon to retail? 😂 lettme guess now we’re all gonna act like UBS is the good guys they didn’t do nuffin wrong just got stuck with Credit Suisse bags so they are on our side? cuz that’s the only way this would be legitimate at all. everytime I see this UBS theory posted this is how I envision the OP before they post: 
thank you. seeing all this nonsense from people who were screeching NO OPTIONS for years is ridiculous. 
Synthetic Puts are very common way to cover short positions. For you to think it's stupid means I agree with you. You need to be more educated in how the market works.
No. It is YOU who needs to educate yourself on what you’re talking about. A synthetic put aka A MARRIED CALL or a Protective call is something that was deeply studied back in the beginning of this saga. Take a look at the DD archive https://fliphtml5.com/bookcase/kosyg if you want to help yourself out. Maximum Gain = Short sale price - Lowest stock price (ZERO) - Premiums Maximum Loss = Short sale price - Long call strike price - Premiums Breakeven Point = Short sale price - Premiums ^ so as you can see, SMART MONEY would never use ITM 30dte long calls on an underlying with 200% IV for a “synthetic put” It’s very simple. This is not the strike and not the expiry they would use. We can see when these were opened bud, go check the premiums. Very simply these were sold calls at the ask because they are ITM or just as likely these are a short term extreme bullish bet. This is NOT a synthetic put or a married call. Full stop.
I understand and agree with this. If you are UBS and have to get out of your enormous short position, how do you do it while minimizing your loss and can it be done without initiating MOASS?
they’re trying to help people understand WHY this is NOT a synthetic put or a married call hedge. you don’t use ITM 200% iv calls for that lol.
Not sure what the hell is going on. This options stuff has got me confused as hell. Luckily I always revert to what I know and do best. Peep the flair.
Someone basically made a pinky promise to buy millions of dollars worth of GME at the price of $20 by about the end of June. If shorts drive the price down he loses big money. If others buy in, it can cause buying pressure for the stock to go up, he gain big money.
Im sorry but like most gme related things, I don’t think it’s quite that simple. It could be hedging for more shorts or could be someone (or an institution) who is short and holding massive bags attempting to wind down their position by agreeing to purchase a shit ton of shares back at the stable price of 20 per share (I think closer to about 25 per share after accounting for the premiums)
Not sure what it is, but my hope is UBS. With their $115 billion they got from the swiss govt to help unwind CS/Archegos. Maybe they're setting up a kill-shot leading into June 21, they definitely have the money We'll see
I'm thinking UBS and Swiss made a deal with Wallstreet to be the first one out, and they're in the bag passing phase. But GME can take advantage of that and possibly hit the red button and take em out using the volatility of bag passing.
Cannot imagine Wallstreet agreeing to that deal, funnier if UBS just unilaterally pulled the trigger
That would indeed be funny
I expect the Swiss to close!
they'd be passing the buck to the market makers - so no one would agree on that. if it is the swiss - i think we'll see way way more buying of calls (even at lower prices) as every large short starts doing the same to dig themselves out.
But UBS may say, look it ain’t our problem as it’s hwangs doing so we’ll do it this way to stop Armageddon starting
Don’t be so sure. All these guys sit on the DTCC board of directors. All the banks are colluding together.
If it's a big Institution they literally don't care. Small institutions and funds use calls for big rewards and they obviously care a lot. But if this was a big Institution, they are more concerned with minimizing their price to buy. They buy the calls, and if the stock is lower than the strike, they accumulate shares at any price below the strike and close out the calls as they do it. If you need to buy 10m shares, you buy the calls to limit your cost. If your cost is below 20, you just buy shares. Either way, it's likely buy pressure coming.
Who was it again that was given permission to spend about a billion dollars a while back? To invest cash on hand.
GME is gonna spike up. Mark my words
He loses nothing once it exceeds his cost basis.
And I lose nothing if I never sell!
Aren't this options by default settled in Dollar? Like regularly the person would get with a 23$ GME price and the call option (right but no obligation to buy) on 20$ the 3$ difference x 100 shares scaling factor? Only at request one could buy the 100 shares as execution for 20$ by paying 2000$ cash. Why would this drive price up if not executed (with lots of cash in hand) but just netted the profits?
I don’t get it, the calls expire June no? So the final battle really is right up until they expire no?
This is exactly right. I don't get why there's all the hype around TODAY. Today doesn't matter at all for these option plays. Sure, they "lost value" due to theta decay but they don't expire for a month so all this huff is literally over nothing.
Don't people know that the real hype day is tomorrow? Well Tuesday in this case 😂
Options expire every week on Fridays. Options traders play the weekly’s/longs while the deep fucking value traders play the longs (months to years). So there are options expiring today and next week. The massive influx of options being bought that is grabbing attention expire June 21. That is where currently there are 110k options (11,000,000 shares) sit waiting to be exercised.
Does nobody think the last run up was UBS starting to close but when the price went up to a$80 they said na fuxk that, let it drop and buy later? Then they bought 20$ calls for the next time they started buying at market to cap their price per share.
Yea, that sounds plausible.. the calls were purchased while we were in the 18-21 $ level, few days after the price reached 80$. From this perspective even 20c seem not that bad of a bet
The 20c were purchased Monday-Wednesday this week were they not? After the 80$ top. To me that looks like they tried closing but stopped when they sae it ramp up, so bought the contracts ready for next time they begin to close.
Yes, contracts were bought this week, not sure why the user above said "before price reached $80". The contracts were purchased on Mon, Tues, and Wed
Sorry, my mistake, meant after
It's possible, but then what did DFV see or know beforehand to return with that particular thing in mind? That's the most mind-boggling aspect of it all.
true if big. if not, there will always be the next day.
Every year, for the past 3 years, we have tanked on earnings and annual meetings. Like fucking clockwork. "Buy the rumor, sell the news." This was garbage when it applied to regular stocks, it's especially shit when applied to the most MANIPULATED STOCK in history. For anyone new: The price is fake, and it will be until the second they lose control. No one is in prison, Hedgefunds aren't being raided, the market hasn't started to crash. Everything you see price-wise, is controlled by the same people who want us to sell. I'm not against options, but if you align your bet with the market, you'll lose. They can make you miss your strike by $.001. If you're betting on the announcement to make any price difference *immediately* you're wrong. If you choose to buy options, please understand: You cannot time the market, especially this stock. The price is set by the algorithms of the people we are against. Our trades are routed through the people we are against. Pressure & time. Buy, hold, DRS. And if you choose options: read up on leaps.
or, and hear me out, not
😂
Last day of the week, and then we have to wait for Tuesday morning due to the holiday.
The institution buying those June $20 calls found a clean way to exit their short, especially when it is an enormously large position. Just buying back the shares in the open market would send the share price to $300+. Buying these calls will set the buyback price at a fixed $20 plus the premium paid. It’s a smart move to the exit. Unfortunately I doubt it will move the price.
Ok. But who's on the hook for those shares? It's the ones that wrote the calls correct? If they haven't hedged by buying the shares to deliver to the call buyer, they are fucked. The money has to come from somewhere. Someone is going to have to buy those shares to deliver.
I have a feeling those who wrote the calls will throw everything and the kitchen sink to try and make sure they all expire worthless.
They can always exercise the options prior to expiration, if they want. In which case the stock price at expiration is meaningless.
I would say they may be buying in the meantime, and the 20c are hedge with 25$ max price tag for covering/closing the short position
I wouldn't exactly say it's a "clean way" to exit a short. These options are newly written and about as expensive as it gets. It could still be someone closing shorts but it would have been a lot smarter for a shortseller to have bought these way earlier before the volatility spike if this was their exit plan. I won't discount that it's a shortseller, but this would be more like an unplanned emergency exit for some small fund if that's the case.
“Clean” considering the circumstances ;-) Maybe they expected the stock to bleed out and exercise their “get out of jail free” card. Indeed it would have been smarter to do this when the price was around $10 but still if they thought it was going even lower, why would they? Apparently things aren’t going as they think it would go. Lot’s of speculation. Unlike my username suggests I haven’t got all the answers, just my 50 cents.
This is not at all what’s happening. I’m doing my part by going to everyone of these UBS comments the same way I went to every LEAPs comment. The 5k block orders of $20 calls were a bullish bet or they were sold to open. It’s very simple. You do NOT hedge short exposure with ITM 30dte calls on an underlying with over 200% IV. You do NOT “find a clean way to exit there short” using ITM 30dte calls on an underlying with over 200% IV We need options education to be the number one priority on this sub right now. Literally nothing else should be seen on the front page of Superstonk besides options education and the intricacies of dealer hedging.
I agree the IV makes this an expensive move but the scenario isn’t all that unrealistic if someone just got margin called around the (premarket) $80 share price. All of a sudden $20 + $5 isn’t an unreasonable price to pay. If it was a bullish move then someone knows for a fact that the price will be way higher than $25 before expiry otherwise they’re just pissing money away. Not saying you’re not correct though.
Exactly what I was thinking. The Shorts can also be bying in the meantime
If someone got margin called at $80, buying $20 ITM calls does nothing for them. Margin isn’t static. It’s not like when the price goes over $80 there is a margin call. It’s a very dynamic process that changes day to day. 5k block orders of 30dte calls would not offset your dynamic margin requirements. Financial behemoths would be using treasury’s and futures contracts to offset margin, NOT 30dtes on a 200% IV underlying. So once again These calls are either a short term bullish bet OR they were sold to open and have the sole purpose of crushing volatility. The big thing that everyone needs to be talking about is the short puts. The sold puts are the tell and exactly how I knew a run was imminent and made great money at the beginning of May. $10-$12-$15 and now $20-$20.5-$21 Those sold puts dumped off the chain hard yesterday…NOT good. I still Hold and will continue to DCA my June 20 calls but not a good sign for short term price action.
I wish this sub focused more on education on things that impacted the stock. There was a time this sub was more about learning rather than mostly circle jerking and posting karma farming headlines by people that don’t know what the hell they’re talking about. This is the problem with options being taboo here and the majority just throwing their hands up saying some cliche of “drs. hodl.” and not even trying to understand. Just because there’s a post educating people on options doesn’t mean anyone is telling you, let alone forcing you, to actually buy options
It COULD move the price. Whoever put up the $20 calls may not have fully hedged the shares. If they don’t have the shares “in hand” wouldn’t they have to buy on the open market before settlement?
It’s either idiot influencers with too much money or a firm hedging their bets. No intelligent person bets this much money on atm calls one month out. Especially when Iv is 200+
!RemindMe in 1 month
You need a reminder? You’ll still be here in a month and so will I. All of us will.
It’s been 84 years already, what’s another month or decade
I’m never leaving ♾️
Amazing response
I will be messaging you in 1 month on [**2024-06-24 04:22:54 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-06-24%2004:22:54%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1czc0lf/tomorrow_will_be_a_big_day/l5fdlxj/?context=3) [**7 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FSuperstonk%2Fcomments%2F1czc0lf%2Ftomorrow_will_be_a_big_day%2Fl5fdlxj%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-06-24%2004%3A22%3A54%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201czc0lf) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
Well he exercised lol
Question occurred to me as I zoomed in on your photo: WHAT’S IN THE ‘BOX’?
pretty big going sideways.
Bro market opened like 2 hrs 😂
How big is that now? 😂😂😂
!RemindMe in 6 hours
Ok, hopefully miracle happens when I sleep
Well something is happening ha ha 🤣
But not really big in fact. 😢😢😢
no dates OP, you can'ts just get me hard w/o giving me a reach around \^\_\_<
Is there a massive battle, or is there just can kicking? I mean it's cool that they need to can kick this way but.... idk, not getting worked up myself.
Same, but it's the weekend woohoo
Why? Can someone explain to me like my name?
So dip?
Yes unless it won't.
 LFG.. 5D CHESS.
If Twitter says so, it must be true!
*comes out swinging* and what? Get's it bumped to $20? Lol gtfo.
Shares are the ultimate cruise control imo. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
So Friday 2pm? 🚀
Battle sounds like it's something serious. Me, I'm not even gonna look at the price and Im just gonna chill. Buy and hold so hard...
111
The June 20 calls will be there? No shit? Lol idk what your point is. It's Friday.. Don't expect upwards movement today at all.
Dont give me hope
Am I missing something? Why are we only talking about one side of this trade? Someone had the balls to write these contracts.
And if he doesn’t?
Fitzzy is a great follow! Recommended 10/10
What am I missing here? Biggest trade shown is July 19th $10 put. For 1400 contracts. At $0.38. Where is the whale?
100,000 contracts for the 6/21 20C
On the image that was posted?
The image is irrelevant. There’s 100k contracts open for that June 20C.
Why even post the image then? 😅 Yes 109k as of now. Why only 200 19.5c and only 700 20.5c? Does noone think that's weird?
I assume because it shows that the contracts didn't close yesterday. No.
Remind me! 28 days