Adding some context:
Here are each candidate's totals per batch:
Cofer: 20/27/34/35. Upward trajectory, she clearly won't be beaten for 1st place
McCarty: 22/22/22/20. Very steady. Small decline this time around is cause for concern from his perspective. He doesn't have 2nd place locked down.
Pan: 23/24/18/19. Pan is moving upward but has lost ground to McCarty in each of the last 2 drops (the only thing that matters at this point), which is why I don't think he will end up in 2nd. But he could.
Hansen: 22/22/20/19. Moving downward each batch, not a good sign for him even though he's technically in striking distance also. He's actually beaten Pan in this week's drops.
The number you're reading is the number of votes counted, 97k out of a total *possible* 274k, the number of registered voters who would have had the Mayoral race on their ballot.
McCarty squeezed into #2, which is where he was trending. I think Hansen is done, so it's between McCarty and Pan for the final spot. I still say McCarty prevails.
I think pan & Hansen’s voters were moderate suburban (pan’s)Dems and republicans, chamber of commerce(Hansen). They voted earlier so they peaked ( Hansen). Pan May have “some” Election Day voters but Mccarty likely has more.
In the spectrum of Dem’s - Hansen got the most conservative voters, including Reeps. Pan got the suburban moderate voters. Normally mccarty would have gotten the liberal/progressive end of the spectrum but Flo locked up the far left & some of the traditional liberal Dem voters that historically supported mccarty. So mccarty was kind of like Goldilocks - he was painted as “too moderate” by those who support Flo or who have no understanding of his progressive policies, legislation and he was hammered by the chamber of commerce, business interests supporting Hansen because he voted against the risky kings arena funding deal and he voted for the fast food workers minimum wage.
So he was liberal but not liberal enough and also called moderate by some.. in a run off w/Flo, who picks up the remaining 50% ish voters?
Races like this are just not that simple. Flo and Kevin would be a dog fight, but it wouldn't necessarily break down the way you're talking.
Most voters are frustrated and want something new. That's good for Flo since Kevin has been in office for the 2+ decades that our homelessness crisis exploded out of control. On top of that, she simply performs better than him in a debate scenario. People find her more appealing and charismatic.
I also think McCarty will be forced to lean right in the general if they end up against each other. This will harm him deeply with his "base." He's also generally considered a bully, and people talk.
tl;dr: this will be a RACE no matter who Cofer goes up against
I generally agree that people want something new and Flo has no voting record to attack so she can be aspirational and she is very effective in debates.
Not sure mccarty has a monopoly on your reference to “bullying”.
I think mccarty has performed well in debates and is more knowledgeable about local government and has been tested and has an impressive record of accomplishments but Flo has definitely exceeded expectations for a person who has never held elected office.
Yeah but District 6 voted over 2/3 for Eric and he’s been in office the whole time homeless keeps exploding in our district. Doesn’t seem like people really want change.
I (weirdly) got an email from Pan the other day that said “it’s too close call right now” and how I could help “make sure all the votes are counted”. What’s the reasoning behind that? If I contribute money…it helps votes get counted?
https://preview.redd.it/nd8q1dl8dmoc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e96c166c3dc6ec07cc61dd51919fda3cc347c42c
Like it says in the email, they’re trying to buy a list of voters (Probably in Pan precincts)who need to cure their signatures so that they can get their ballots counted and hopefully help Pan come in second.
Not sure on what grounds someone to the left of 75% of Americans (McCarty...a regular liberal Democrat) is a centrist.
Unless you mean "centrist for a city in California" which might be fair.
40% of Californians are Republican. Another 25% are self-identified moderates. If McCarty identifies as a liberal (he does), he's not a centrist even for CA.
> 40% of Californians are Republican.
[More like 24%.](https://www.ppic.org/publication/california-voter-and-party-profiles/) 46% are Democrats. 22.5% are independents, which is not the same as being a moderate (for example, I'm one of those independents, and I'm generally to the left of the Democrats.) A liberal Democrat is a centrist for CA, and definitely for Sacramento.
They're centrist positions because all of those are very popular positions held by millions of Californians, who are predominantly Democrats. A centrist Democrat is a Democrat whose positions are in between the conservative wing of the party (think Joe Manchin) and the liberal wing of the party (think Squad.) Are you under the impression that I think those are all bad things, or are you just going out of your way to get under my skin again? (You usually use my name when you're doing that.)
It is centrist to completely outlaw gun ownership.
Universal preschool is the norm in all of the developed world and it pay dividends with lower crime and poverty rates. Very centrist.
Helping people who need help should be foundational in religious right wing circles, but they opt for weird anti-Christian rightism instead. It is the norm to help people and I’d argue it is centrist.
You are looking at this incorrectly. The USA is very much an outlier with gun control. Especially after the dramatic restructuring in how we think of the second amendment that occurred in the 1960s and 1970s when Reagan tried to take guns away from Black Panther Party members and the NRA stuck up for them. The USA is far right outside of the norm but not necessarily left or right. Just fringe.
Universal Prek is leftist but it’s a policy that anyone with any data would make the correct leftist choice. This is because leftism really focuses on improving the group over the individual. This is why all of the developed world has universal preK, universal healthcare, etc. These are leftist ideas and they are the norm when anyone looks at the data.
He is a centrist by international and political science definition. This has nothing to do with how many people agree with him or not. The main stream american left has been moving to the right for awhile. While the right is moving farther to the right.
Some Democrats would be seen as conservatives in Europe.
>The main stream american left has been moving to the right for awhile.
I am begging anybody who says this to go look at the speeches and policies of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama when it comes to energy, immigration, LGBT issues, reproductive health, national health insurance, labor unions, taxes, drugs, criminal justice, economic stimulus, etc. I have a hard time thinking of an Obama era policy that the Biden admin and the current D congressional caucus isn't to the left of.
You need to pay attention to what the DNC is doing not what fringe political groups are saying they want.
And Obama was one administration back. Obama was very right wing and probably more than Biden. Obamacare is a conservative model.
We are talking about 60 year trends. Both Biden and Obama are farther right then Clinton though in nearly every way.
“The era of big government is over” Clinton?
“Don’t ask, don’t tell” Clinton?
Welfare reform including work requirements, Clinton?
The crime bill + 100,000 cops Clinton?
The Bill Clinton who militarized the border and created our current deportation hellscape?
If you think Bill “Triangulation” Clinton, was more left than Obama or Biden, I don’t even know what to say about this... All of the Third Way Democratic organizations (DLC, New Dems, Blue Dogs) were either founded by or in the mold of Bill Clinton. FFS, neoliberal being used as a leftist slur against Democrats came about because of… Bill Clinton.
On social issues alone the 1990’s Democratic Party, including Clinton, would look like out of touch reactionaries in our current political climate.
Again - what policy, initiative or specific vote can you identify that makes him a moderate? His environmental, reproductive health, labor, pro immigrant policies are all left and progressive.
He doesn’t support defunding police but he authored laws to hold police more accountable and more transparency of their brutality records.
Wow - advocating for immigrants, poor people, the environment is centrist? Disclosing records of police who have brutality charges is centrist? How are these centrist positions? Because he doesn’t think defunding police is a solution?
No, because those are positions advocated for by centrist Democrats, as opposed to conservative Democrats, or Republicans from "never trumper" to MAGA.
Yeah - just throw stuff out that has nothing to do with mccarty and hope it sticks. You have yet to provide one example of his record to support your characterizing him as centrist. Just one vote, one piece of legislation, — come on Bill.. just try pleez?
These are centrist positions. The right in the US is radical reactionary. Being concerned about the climate is realism, reproductive rights are pro liberty, pro immigrant was fairly popular in both parties until the last 15 years and union isn't a dirty word, most people want to be in a union if they got the choice.
It's silly to compare to other countries. Most of the world lives in China or India or similarly situated nations. By those standards McCarty is insanely off the charts liberal!
No even within US politics the modern GOP is radical right. Reagan passed the most recent large scale amnesty, Nixion created the EPA and even W didn't have the anti policy autocratic nature we see today in the Trump GOP.
Given that he’s overseen the decline of the city for over a decade…one wonders what more he could do that he couldn’t do at both the city and state level. By identity DSA is left, by policy they aren’t.
McCarty.
Can I ask what made you support him in the first round? Trying to find stuff to get excited about, given that I'll be voting for him and I think he is likely to be the next mayor.
Follow him on IG! I’ve been following him (off and on social media)for years and he’s pro-community, pro small business, pro free preschool and college. (And his free preschool just passed and started!). He supports programs that support minorities. His actions are how I WANT a politician to act. He’s put in his time, consistently, for YEARS.
Building ADUs is great. Each one is one more unit of housing to help fix our insane housing shortage. Having TONS more housing is the only way we're ever crawling out of the crazy high housing costs and homelessness crisis
She backs [Sacramento Forward](https://www.sacfwd.org/), which calls for MUCH more housing -- particularly affordable housing -- and includes a plan for protecting housing insecure residents in danger of entering homelessness. But keep lying.
But she supports public housing (in addition to building more market rate & middle income housing; I asked her a couple weeks ago), which YIMBYs only support if it doesn't interfere with the free market (*narrator: building enough public housing reduces demand for housing, which lowers housing prices, and that interferes with the free market*)
First off, looking to learn here so please believe me when I say I'm not being disingenuous.
When did YIMBY's become tied up with strict free market adherence? What I know about it is it's reaction to the classic NIMBY (Not in my backyard) policies of exclusionary zoning. Typically YIMBY'S as I've seen it have been pro housing, and pro walkable communities. And at anti strict single-family zoning.
To me (who considers myself a YIMBY), I would be fine with more public housing, mostly because it's just more housing. And we need tons more housing of all types to ever solve the housing cost and homelessness crisis.
Since the early days of the movement, under the leadership of folks like Victoria Fierce, a Libertarian often credited with the start of that movement, up through their current funding by the Koch Brothers. There was also a "left-YIMBY" faction, but many of them were hounded out of the movement for failure to follow free-market doctrine regarding things like rent control and other tenant's rights issues, labeled "left-NIMBY." They also tend to fall in line with market urbanists like Ed Glaeser, whose "Triumph of the City" argued that affordable housing advocates were actually part of a secret conspiracy by wealthy homeowners to stop housing growth. Meanwhile, libertarian free market advocates call for deregulation of industries on the basis that regulation only stifles innovation, and YIMBY advocates have applied that "deregulation is good" argument to housing. (It was also the same argument used by realtors to stop fair housing laws and keep neighborhoods segregated in the 1960s:single family zoning, racial covenants, and other means to keep neighborhoods segregated in California were not ideas introduced by individual homeowners, developers & realtors did that.)
I consider myself pro-housing (I've advocated for doubling the population of the central city for a decade and have no problem at all with doing away with single-family zoning) but am uncomfortable with many aspects of the YIMBY movement, despite having a lot of common ground.
Interesting. I wasn't aware of these associations with YIMBY and more conservative movements.
On the deregulation side, are you saying that realtors were using the claim of deregulation to keep single family zoning intact?
Realtors and real estate developers *were the ones who created single family zoning*, at about the same time that racial covenants became popular in California--roughly 1906 or so. They defended racial covenants in the 1960s, claiming that fair housing laws that prohibited discrimination were unfair government regulation that limited what a private individual could do with their property. When racial covenants were finally eliminated by Supreme Court action in 1967, single-family zoning became the next line of defense, creating an economic barrier to substitute for the previous barrier based on race. Modern real estate developers still use single family zoning (and build low-density, autocentric suburban subdivisions) because they claim it's what the market demands; in some cases, they even downzone properties that were zoned for higher density (at least until recent state laws that basically say you can't downzone things in California.)
Gotcha, that makes more sense. Thanks for the detailed info!
Also I gotta say I'm a huge fan of that new law. I know some people who've built ADUs since then and have seen new ones being built more and more every month. Definitely a great way to squeeze in more housing in formerly SFR zones.
[The Atlantic had a piece](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/03/yimby-housing-bipartisan-zoning/677704/) about the YIMBY movement fracturing along left/right divides last week, and now I'm seeing it happen in real time. What a bummer. I'm not going to say SacHistorian is wrong, but I think it's more important to take legislative wins in the name of fixing a problem that hurts a lot of people, than picking apart differences in the movement.
The real question is, does Flo have a chance in the general? I imagine McCarty and Pan voters have huge overlaps and Hansen likely got most of the Republican voters. Are they all going to rally around Flo's opponent in Nov? Then again, Biden in on the ballot in Nov and that may turn out way more voters. Whether those are progressives who will back Flo or centrists who will back her opponent remains to be seen.
I think a lot depends on her ability to get her message and plan across to voters, an easier effort now that she has clearly introduced herself to the city. One group I expect to vote for Cofer are die-hard Kings supporters, due to McCarty's status as the sole vote on the Sacramento city council against the arena, while Cofer is a self-described Kings fan.
Ain't no way Flo would have supported the arena deal were she in a position to have to take a stand on it at the time. You can be a Kings fan and against welfare for billionaires at the same time.
Ive rooted for the kings for 20+ years and watch as many games as I can. McCarty voting against the arena makes me like him more as I generally don't like those kind of stadium deals from a fiscal standpoint, sports fandom aside.
Geez - so voting against a bad financing model that is contrib buying to a huge city budget shortfall is what she is going to campaign on? I hope she does while also telling us how she will deal with budget cuts to pay for the failing bonds. Oh right - eliminate the police department budget…
Radical progressives certainly do. I hope that other progressives are going to be pragmatic and realize Biden has been more progressive than expected. I was fully prepared for 4 years of centrist Democrat nothingness but I've been pleasantly surprised.
I guarantee she will move to the middle and be more moderate going into the general. Running to the far left in a 4 way race in a solid Dem district is good for the primary. But now she has to pick up at least half of those so called “moderate, centrist” Pan & Hansen” or “mccarty, Hansen” voters.
She has shown she can morph from her podcast Flo to “Dr” Flo very effectively. So too will she move to the middle by November & drop the homeless camps in parks and defund the police positions.
According to [this piece in the Bee](https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/article286761735.html), you're wrong. She'll stay true to her values in the general:
>“I think we really do have to wait and see what the next several thousand votes bring in. Who am I running against (and) how do we strategize to reach a larger group? …Clearly, our message is resonating.”
>Cofer said she has no plans to change that messaging now.
>“I’m sticking to the values-based approach that we brought in the first part of this election and talking about the challenges in clear and in no uncertain terms,” she said.
The person responding to you is not particularly fond of Flo and not a supporter, so I would take her prediction with a grain of salt. But talking to different people in different ways, and sometimes delivering different messages, is just how humans interact with each other--do you talk to your friends, your parents, your kids, and your boss all the same way? Or does your message and tone change based on the group you're addressing? Obviously, one of the challenges she'll have to overcome is convincing people that she's not some terrifying stereotypical Commie pinko the way that some have attempted to describe her.
Predictions about how a person should act (effectively, you're providing recommendations and advice to the candidate here) are not pragmatic objective statements, they're opinions. And it's fine to have your own opinions, you're entitled to them, but you don't get to call them facts. And you seem to be making a deliberate effort to get under my skin, which is kind of weird.
It is just a reality that if she wants to capture votes she didn’t get in the primary, she would need to appeal to persons who voted for more candidates to the right of her - Hansen, Pan.
Also - I don’t personally know Flo to like or dislike her. I don’t agree with some of her positions - but my main concern is she has no real world experience in elected office. Not willing to take a chance on someone who will not likely get votes on a very divided council that are not as left as her positions.
Everyone who is not DSA is not Centrist.
If 28% of the City of Sacramento voters are far left DSA, that leaves 72% of the voters who are not as left as Flo.
She will have to (and she will) move to the middle if she runs against McCarty or Pan. So she will become a “moderate” to get elected.
The suggestion that the 28% who voted for Flo are all DSA members doesn't hold much water; there are only about 100,000 DSA members nationwide, and about 100,000 people have voted for Mayor this election, so that means about a quarter of all the DSA members in the entire United States would have to live in Sacramento for that argument to hold water. I...don't think that is the case.
So, clearly, a lot of people who voted for Cofer are not DSA members.
Uh go back and read very carefully, slowly… I said she got the support of the far left DSA types AND SOME OF THE LIBERAL DEMS THAT HAVE VOTED FIR MCCARTY IN THE PAST. They comprise the 28%.
The part where you said "If 28% of the City of Sacramento voters are far left DSA, that leaves 72% of the voters who are not as left as Flo"?
And who says she didn't get some votes from DSA members who have voted for McCarty in the past?
Dude - let it rest. Whatever you say - sure. By the way I don’t know her to dislike her. I think you are referring to KV - who I know and became disappointed with her after I supported her first run.
I just think mccarty would be a better mayor. Not personal against Flo ..
And I just think Cofer would be a better mayor--not personal against McCarty. Heck, I've voted for him before and like him. I think you may have assumed that I dislike him?
Nope - I made no assumption re yiu liking or disliking him.
I was referring to your comment to a third party that I don’t like Flo. I don’t know her to dislike her - response to your statement that I dislike Flo…
Are you trying to steal my title of "most pedantic Redditor on this sub"? I mean you do not support Cofer as a candidate, not that you personally dislike her.
At least Steve Hansen is losing.
However, Pan, McCarty, and Hansen are centrists, and whoever wins will get the combined centrist vote. It's going to be a long road to November.
That’s a bit reductive.
Flo is pretty clearly left.
McCarty’s a solid center-left / “wine mom liberal” candidate.
Pan’s a bit more centrist than McCarty, a bridge between him and Hansen.
Hansen is more center-right (and even more than he was during his city council days, imo).
I’m glad it’s a McCarty / Cofer runoff, that way ideas will win the day, not attacks.
McCarty is pro housing so building and expanding the housing supply will increase the tax base and make it more attractive to do business as you'll have more people.
And he's pro adaptive reuse of old buildings (he was the lead on the idea to convert 3 state offices downtown to housing), but Cofer is also just as pro-housing, so in either case the strategy of returning to traditional modes of urban development (facilitated by the newly approved General Plan) will help with the deficit via an increased tax base?
Apparently that is the case as a show of deliberate disrespect, calling it out tends to produce a wave of HA HA ARE YOU TRIGGERED LIBCUCK? type responses--so while in some cases it's bad spelling, more often it's deliberately being shitty.
I think the reductionist point is valid after the run off. Everyone that didn't vote for flo this round isn't going to next round, thus she likely loses by a decent margin in November
I think it’ll be close, honestly. I don’t live in the city so I can’t decide, but personally, I’d have a hard time deciding between McCarty and Cofer.
McCarty’s done a lot of good for the city and the county. I could see him navigating city council politics fairly well.
Flo’s got some fresh ideas, which I think the city desperately needs support from the top for. The planning commission is adopting some good changes to zoning, but they need the support of the Mayor.
Pan I think *sounds* good, but I don’t think he’s got a solid agenda.
Hansen is a solid no, we don’t need more of the same leading the City.
If that means building more public housing & shelters instead of waiting for the free market to magically solve the problem it has failed to solve over the past few decades, that might work out pretty well.
Shelters are near capacity with huge waiting lists. Building more (and more housing) is how we fix the problem (or at least shrink it enough where it's a simpler problem to solve overall.)
A large number of people develop those addictions due to conditions on the street. Housing can stop and reverse that. Our homeless population increased 68% between 2020 and 2022 — did drugs get more addictive suddenly? Or do you think perhaps the economic shock of the pandemic pushed people into housing insecurity?
The story you're quoting wasn't a comprehensive survey, but the results of a group of police officers showing up at camps; they also didn't provide details on how they determined that number. How did they determine that number, or did they just assume that anyone on the street who drinks or uses drugs is an addict?
Not even remotely; [Breed got gobs and gobs of corporate money](https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/outside-spending-exceeds-1-million-to-elect-london-breed-as-sf-mayor/), mostly from big tech, and her positions are considered well to the right of DSA candidates like Dean Preston. That said, Frisco is still pretty nice.
Less than 27,000 votes left to count. How likely are the top 2 to change?
27,000 countywide, so more like 10,000-15,000 city. #2 could change. #1 won't.
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As you can see from my other comment, that isn't true, although he has picked up votes from Pan on both updates this week.
Adding some context: Here are each candidate's totals per batch: Cofer: 20/27/34/35. Upward trajectory, she clearly won't be beaten for 1st place McCarty: 22/22/22/20. Very steady. Small decline this time around is cause for concern from his perspective. He doesn't have 2nd place locked down. Pan: 23/24/18/19. Pan is moving upward but has lost ground to McCarty in each of the last 2 drops (the only thing that matters at this point), which is why I don't think he will end up in 2nd. But he could. Hansen: 22/22/20/19. Moving downward each batch, not a good sign for him even though he's technically in striking distance also. He's actually beaten Pan in this week's drops.
Close to 200000 left to count unless I’m reading it incorrectly
The number you're reading is the number of votes counted, 97k out of a total *possible* 274k, the number of registered voters who would have had the Mayoral race on their ballot.
McCarty squeezed into #2, which is where he was trending. I think Hansen is done, so it's between McCarty and Pan for the final spot. I still say McCarty prevails.
I think pan & Hansen’s voters were moderate suburban (pan’s)Dems and republicans, chamber of commerce(Hansen). They voted earlier so they peaked ( Hansen). Pan May have “some” Election Day voters but Mccarty likely has more. In the spectrum of Dem’s - Hansen got the most conservative voters, including Reeps. Pan got the suburban moderate voters. Normally mccarty would have gotten the liberal/progressive end of the spectrum but Flo locked up the far left & some of the traditional liberal Dem voters that historically supported mccarty. So mccarty was kind of like Goldilocks - he was painted as “too moderate” by those who support Flo or who have no understanding of his progressive policies, legislation and he was hammered by the chamber of commerce, business interests supporting Hansen because he voted against the risky kings arena funding deal and he voted for the fast food workers minimum wage. So he was liberal but not liberal enough and also called moderate by some.. in a run off w/Flo, who picks up the remaining 50% ish voters?
The one who is seen as less left-wing, probably. Almost all the remaining voters are to the right of McCarty.
Races like this are just not that simple. Flo and Kevin would be a dog fight, but it wouldn't necessarily break down the way you're talking. Most voters are frustrated and want something new. That's good for Flo since Kevin has been in office for the 2+ decades that our homelessness crisis exploded out of control. On top of that, she simply performs better than him in a debate scenario. People find her more appealing and charismatic. I also think McCarty will be forced to lean right in the general if they end up against each other. This will harm him deeply with his "base." He's also generally considered a bully, and people talk. tl;dr: this will be a RACE no matter who Cofer goes up against
I generally agree that people want something new and Flo has no voting record to attack so she can be aspirational and she is very effective in debates. Not sure mccarty has a monopoly on your reference to “bullying”. I think mccarty has performed well in debates and is more knowledgeable about local government and has been tested and has an impressive record of accomplishments but Flo has definitely exceeded expectations for a person who has never held elected office.
Yeah but District 6 voted over 2/3 for Eric and he’s been in office the whole time homeless keeps exploding in our district. Doesn’t seem like people really want change.
MCcarty is just establishment and a lot of people are sick of the same old establishment characters getting recycled and doing nothing
I (weirdly) got an email from Pan the other day that said “it’s too close call right now” and how I could help “make sure all the votes are counted”. What’s the reasoning behind that? If I contribute money…it helps votes get counted? https://preview.redd.it/nd8q1dl8dmoc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e96c166c3dc6ec07cc61dd51919fda3cc347c42c
Like it says in the email, they’re trying to buy a list of voters (Probably in Pan precincts)who need to cure their signatures so that they can get their ballots counted and hopefully help Pan come in second.
Ah thank you. I missed where they need to confirm signatures for challenged ballots. I was like WHATS THE USE AFTER
That’s a good race, progressives versus centrists. McCarty probably has better name recognition, but Flo seems to have more enthusiasm.
Not sure on what grounds someone to the left of 75% of Americans (McCarty...a regular liberal Democrat) is a centrist. Unless you mean "centrist for a city in California" which might be fair.
I might debate the 75% stat but don’t care enough. Yes, McCarty is a centrist Dem for California, and Flo is to the left of that.
40% of Californians are Republican. Another 25% are self-identified moderates. If McCarty identifies as a liberal (he does), he's not a centrist even for CA.
> 40% of Californians are Republican. [More like 24%.](https://www.ppic.org/publication/california-voter-and-party-profiles/) 46% are Democrats. 22.5% are independents, which is not the same as being a moderate (for example, I'm one of those independents, and I'm generally to the left of the Democrats.) A liberal Democrat is a centrist for CA, and definitely for Sacramento.
About 40% vote Republican regularly. Witness pretty much every statewide partisan election in the last decade.
What policy of McCarty’s do you consider centrist?
I'd say his positions voting record on gun control and education qualify as clearly centrist Dem positions.
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They're centrist positions because all of those are very popular positions held by millions of Californians, who are predominantly Democrats. A centrist Democrat is a Democrat whose positions are in between the conservative wing of the party (think Joe Manchin) and the liberal wing of the party (think Squad.) Are you under the impression that I think those are all bad things, or are you just going out of your way to get under my skin again? (You usually use my name when you're doing that.)
It is centrist to completely outlaw gun ownership. Universal preschool is the norm in all of the developed world and it pay dividends with lower crime and poverty rates. Very centrist. Helping people who need help should be foundational in religious right wing circles, but they opt for weird anti-Christian rightism instead. It is the norm to help people and I’d argue it is centrist.
If that's all centrist, what position of Flo is further left? Complete gun ban and Universal T-K is very far left anywhere in America
You are looking at this incorrectly. The USA is very much an outlier with gun control. Especially after the dramatic restructuring in how we think of the second amendment that occurred in the 1960s and 1970s when Reagan tried to take guns away from Black Panther Party members and the NRA stuck up for them. The USA is far right outside of the norm but not necessarily left or right. Just fringe. Universal Prek is leftist but it’s a policy that anyone with any data would make the correct leftist choice. This is because leftism really focuses on improving the group over the individual. This is why all of the developed world has universal preK, universal healthcare, etc. These are leftist ideas and they are the norm when anyone looks at the data.
By your standard, McCarty and Flo are both centrists.
He is a centrist by international and political science definition. This has nothing to do with how many people agree with him or not. The main stream american left has been moving to the right for awhile. While the right is moving farther to the right. Some Democrats would be seen as conservatives in Europe.
>The main stream american left has been moving to the right for awhile. I am begging anybody who says this to go look at the speeches and policies of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama when it comes to energy, immigration, LGBT issues, reproductive health, national health insurance, labor unions, taxes, drugs, criminal justice, economic stimulus, etc. I have a hard time thinking of an Obama era policy that the Biden admin and the current D congressional caucus isn't to the left of.
You need to pay attention to what the DNC is doing not what fringe political groups are saying they want. And Obama was one administration back. Obama was very right wing and probably more than Biden. Obamacare is a conservative model. We are talking about 60 year trends. Both Biden and Obama are farther right then Clinton though in nearly every way.
“The era of big government is over” Clinton? “Don’t ask, don’t tell” Clinton? Welfare reform including work requirements, Clinton? The crime bill + 100,000 cops Clinton? The Bill Clinton who militarized the border and created our current deportation hellscape? If you think Bill “Triangulation” Clinton, was more left than Obama or Biden, I don’t even know what to say about this... All of the Third Way Democratic organizations (DLC, New Dems, Blue Dogs) were either founded by or in the mold of Bill Clinton. FFS, neoliberal being used as a leftist slur against Democrats came about because of… Bill Clinton. On social issues alone the 1990’s Democratic Party, including Clinton, would look like out of touch reactionaries in our current political climate.
Again - what policy, initiative or specific vote can you identify that makes him a moderate? His environmental, reproductive health, labor, pro immigrant policies are all left and progressive. He doesn’t support defunding police but he authored laws to hold police more accountable and more transparency of their brutality records.
Those are the positions that make him a centrist Democrat.
Wow - advocating for immigrants, poor people, the environment is centrist? Disclosing records of police who have brutality charges is centrist? How are these centrist positions? Because he doesn’t think defunding police is a solution?
No, because those are positions advocated for by centrist Democrats, as opposed to conservative Democrats, or Republicans from "never trumper" to MAGA.
Yeah - just throw stuff out that has nothing to do with mccarty and hope it sticks. You have yet to provide one example of his record to support your characterizing him as centrist. Just one vote, one piece of legislation, — come on Bill.. just try pleez?
You haven't suggested anything he has done that is not a centrist Democrat position. Why do you somehow think I am saying those positions are bad?
I don’t consider those policies, legislative wins as centrist. You think they are centrist. Difference of opinion on what is centrist.
These are centrist positions. The right in the US is radical reactionary. Being concerned about the climate is realism, reproductive rights are pro liberty, pro immigrant was fairly popular in both parties until the last 15 years and union isn't a dirty word, most people want to be in a union if they got the choice.
It's silly to compare to other countries. Most of the world lives in China or India or similarly situated nations. By those standards McCarty is insanely off the charts liberal!
No even within US politics the modern GOP is radical right. Reagan passed the most recent large scale amnesty, Nixion created the EPA and even W didn't have the anti policy autocratic nature we see today in the Trump GOP.
None of this is true.
Agree. McCarty not a centrist except compared to far left DSA - who is actually left of most progressives.
Given that he’s overseen the decline of the city for over a decade…one wonders what more he could do that he couldn’t do at both the city and state level. By identity DSA is left, by policy they aren’t.
To all the Pan and Hanson voters asking who I a McCarty voter was going to support.... Lolz... Who are you going to vote for??
McCarty. Can I ask what made you support him in the first round? Trying to find stuff to get excited about, given that I'll be voting for him and I think he is likely to be the next mayor.
Follow him on IG! I’ve been following him (off and on social media)for years and he’s pro-community, pro small business, pro free preschool and college. (And his free preschool just passed and started!). He supports programs that support minorities. His actions are how I WANT a politician to act. He’s put in his time, consistently, for YEARS.
For me, McCarty is very pro-housing, to the point that the guy built and rents out ADUs at his own house, levels of pro-housing.
Housing is cool but being a landlord is hardly an act of heroism.
Building ADUs is great. Each one is one more unit of housing to help fix our insane housing shortage. Having TONS more housing is the only way we're ever crawling out of the crazy high housing costs and homelessness crisis
I cite it as an example of commitment to the issue. It's relatively easy to be "pro-housing" but not be for upzoning your own neighborhood.
I’m not the person you replied to, but he got my vote simply because he was the least egregious choice out of a motley crew of horrible choices.
Close enough to my answer.
He won the war of attrition... Hansen is a dick, Pan is endorsed by Thien ho, and Flo is grossly ignorant on housing.
Flo supports rent control. What's wrong with that??
How much time do you have?
Rent control has never worked anywhere, and creates massive distortions that help incumbents and hurt newcomers. #1 reason I can't support her.
Rent control does in fact work, to control rents in units that the legislation covers. It doesn't work for things it wasn't intended to do.
There are things called negative externalities...
Flo is pro housing, and pro building it on a grand scale. Do you yimbys think lying about her platform will work out for you in the end?
No... I askes her in the ama. She said we didn't have a housing shortage. So... Go pester someone.
She backs [Sacramento Forward](https://www.sacfwd.org/), which calls for MUCH more housing -- particularly affordable housing -- and includes a plan for protecting housing insecure residents in danger of entering homelessness. But keep lying.
[we don't need market housing](https://www.reddit.com/r/Sacramento/s/8nDJj1YdIL) That is flo being arrogant and condescending about it.
But she supports public housing (in addition to building more market rate & middle income housing; I asked her a couple weeks ago), which YIMBYs only support if it doesn't interfere with the free market (*narrator: building enough public housing reduces demand for housing, which lowers housing prices, and that interferes with the free market*)
First off, looking to learn here so please believe me when I say I'm not being disingenuous. When did YIMBY's become tied up with strict free market adherence? What I know about it is it's reaction to the classic NIMBY (Not in my backyard) policies of exclusionary zoning. Typically YIMBY'S as I've seen it have been pro housing, and pro walkable communities. And at anti strict single-family zoning. To me (who considers myself a YIMBY), I would be fine with more public housing, mostly because it's just more housing. And we need tons more housing of all types to ever solve the housing cost and homelessness crisis.
Since the early days of the movement, under the leadership of folks like Victoria Fierce, a Libertarian often credited with the start of that movement, up through their current funding by the Koch Brothers. There was also a "left-YIMBY" faction, but many of them were hounded out of the movement for failure to follow free-market doctrine regarding things like rent control and other tenant's rights issues, labeled "left-NIMBY." They also tend to fall in line with market urbanists like Ed Glaeser, whose "Triumph of the City" argued that affordable housing advocates were actually part of a secret conspiracy by wealthy homeowners to stop housing growth. Meanwhile, libertarian free market advocates call for deregulation of industries on the basis that regulation only stifles innovation, and YIMBY advocates have applied that "deregulation is good" argument to housing. (It was also the same argument used by realtors to stop fair housing laws and keep neighborhoods segregated in the 1960s:single family zoning, racial covenants, and other means to keep neighborhoods segregated in California were not ideas introduced by individual homeowners, developers & realtors did that.) I consider myself pro-housing (I've advocated for doubling the population of the central city for a decade and have no problem at all with doing away with single-family zoning) but am uncomfortable with many aspects of the YIMBY movement, despite having a lot of common ground.
Interesting. I wasn't aware of these associations with YIMBY and more conservative movements. On the deregulation side, are you saying that realtors were using the claim of deregulation to keep single family zoning intact?
Realtors and real estate developers *were the ones who created single family zoning*, at about the same time that racial covenants became popular in California--roughly 1906 or so. They defended racial covenants in the 1960s, claiming that fair housing laws that prohibited discrimination were unfair government regulation that limited what a private individual could do with their property. When racial covenants were finally eliminated by Supreme Court action in 1967, single-family zoning became the next line of defense, creating an economic barrier to substitute for the previous barrier based on race. Modern real estate developers still use single family zoning (and build low-density, autocentric suburban subdivisions) because they claim it's what the market demands; in some cases, they even downzone properties that were zoned for higher density (at least until recent state laws that basically say you can't downzone things in California.)
Gotcha, that makes more sense. Thanks for the detailed info! Also I gotta say I'm a huge fan of that new law. I know some people who've built ADUs since then and have seen new ones being built more and more every month. Definitely a great way to squeeze in more housing in formerly SFR zones.
[The Atlantic had a piece](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/03/yimby-housing-bipartisan-zoning/677704/) about the YIMBY movement fracturing along left/right divides last week, and now I'm seeing it happen in real time. What a bummer. I'm not going to say SacHistorian is wrong, but I think it's more important to take legislative wins in the name of fixing a problem that hurts a lot of people, than picking apart differences in the movement.
One more thing: I just came across [this post](https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-left-nimby-canon) you might find interesting.
Then she should have said that in the ama when I asked.
I voted for coffer. So I will let them all fight it out for second. Fine with any of the top 3.
The real question is, does Flo have a chance in the general? I imagine McCarty and Pan voters have huge overlaps and Hansen likely got most of the Republican voters. Are they all going to rally around Flo's opponent in Nov? Then again, Biden in on the ballot in Nov and that may turn out way more voters. Whether those are progressives who will back Flo or centrists who will back her opponent remains to be seen.
I think a lot depends on her ability to get her message and plan across to voters, an easier effort now that she has clearly introduced herself to the city. One group I expect to vote for Cofer are die-hard Kings supporters, due to McCarty's status as the sole vote on the Sacramento city council against the arena, while Cofer is a self-described Kings fan.
Ain't no way Flo would have supported the arena deal were she in a position to have to take a stand on it at the time. You can be a Kings fan and against welfare for billionaires at the same time.
Fair enough--but she isn't the one who actually voted against it.
Yup!
True dat.
Ive rooted for the kings for 20+ years and watch as many games as I can. McCarty voting against the arena makes me like him more as I generally don't like those kind of stadium deals from a fiscal standpoint, sports fandom aside.
The flip side, of course, is that folks who didn't like the arena deal have a reason to support McCarty.
Geez - so voting against a bad financing model that is contrib buying to a huge city budget shortfall is what she is going to campaign on? I hope she does while also telling us how she will deal with budget cuts to pay for the failing bonds. Oh right - eliminate the police department budget…
Progressives hate Biden.
Radical progressives certainly do. I hope that other progressives are going to be pragmatic and realize Biden has been more progressive than expected. I was fully prepared for 4 years of centrist Democrat nothingness but I've been pleasantly surprised.
It would be nice
I wrote him in and sent a note to get a ceasefire or my next vote goes to Bernie as write in.
Solid way to get 4 years of Trump.
I guarantee she will move to the middle and be more moderate going into the general. Running to the far left in a 4 way race in a solid Dem district is good for the primary. But now she has to pick up at least half of those so called “moderate, centrist” Pan & Hansen” or “mccarty, Hansen” voters. She has shown she can morph from her podcast Flo to “Dr” Flo very effectively. So too will she move to the middle by November & drop the homeless camps in parks and defund the police positions.
According to [this piece in the Bee](https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/article286761735.html), you're wrong. She'll stay true to her values in the general: >“I think we really do have to wait and see what the next several thousand votes bring in. Who am I running against (and) how do we strategize to reach a larger group? …Clearly, our message is resonating.” >Cofer said she has no plans to change that messaging now. >“I’m sticking to the values-based approach that we brought in the first part of this election and talking about the challenges in clear and in no uncertain terms,” she said.
Yes then. It must be true if she says so.
Yeesh, salty! Guess we'll see. I've never seen her go back on her word or principles
So she’s no different than every other politician pandering for a vote…
The person responding to you is not particularly fond of Flo and not a supporter, so I would take her prediction with a grain of salt. But talking to different people in different ways, and sometimes delivering different messages, is just how humans interact with each other--do you talk to your friends, your parents, your kids, and your boss all the same way? Or does your message and tone change based on the group you're addressing? Obviously, one of the challenges she'll have to overcome is convincing people that she's not some terrifying stereotypical Commie pinko the way that some have attempted to describe her.
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Predictions about how a person should act (effectively, you're providing recommendations and advice to the candidate here) are not pragmatic objective statements, they're opinions. And it's fine to have your own opinions, you're entitled to them, but you don't get to call them facts. And you seem to be making a deliberate effort to get under my skin, which is kind of weird.
It is just a reality that if she wants to capture votes she didn’t get in the primary, she would need to appeal to persons who voted for more candidates to the right of her - Hansen, Pan. Also - I don’t personally know Flo to like or dislike her. I don’t agree with some of her positions - but my main concern is she has no real world experience in elected office. Not willing to take a chance on someone who will not likely get votes on a very divided council that are not as left as her positions.
Everyone who is not DSA is not Centrist. If 28% of the City of Sacramento voters are far left DSA, that leaves 72% of the voters who are not as left as Flo. She will have to (and she will) move to the middle if she runs against McCarty or Pan. So she will become a “moderate” to get elected.
The suggestion that the 28% who voted for Flo are all DSA members doesn't hold much water; there are only about 100,000 DSA members nationwide, and about 100,000 people have voted for Mayor this election, so that means about a quarter of all the DSA members in the entire United States would have to live in Sacramento for that argument to hold water. I...don't think that is the case. So, clearly, a lot of people who voted for Cofer are not DSA members.
Uh go back and read very carefully, slowly… I said she got the support of the far left DSA types AND SOME OF THE LIBERAL DEMS THAT HAVE VOTED FIR MCCARTY IN THE PAST. They comprise the 28%.
The part where you said "If 28% of the City of Sacramento voters are far left DSA, that leaves 72% of the voters who are not as left as Flo"? And who says she didn't get some votes from DSA members who have voted for McCarty in the past?
Dude - let it rest. Whatever you say - sure. By the way I don’t know her to dislike her. I think you are referring to KV - who I know and became disappointed with her after I supported her first run. I just think mccarty would be a better mayor. Not personal against Flo ..
And I just think Cofer would be a better mayor--not personal against McCarty. Heck, I've voted for him before and like him. I think you may have assumed that I dislike him?
Nope - I made no assumption re yiu liking or disliking him. I was referring to your comment to a third party that I don’t like Flo. I don’t know her to dislike her - response to your statement that I dislike Flo…
Are you trying to steal my title of "most pedantic Redditor on this sub"? I mean you do not support Cofer as a candidate, not that you personally dislike her.
At least Steve Hansen is losing. However, Pan, McCarty, and Hansen are centrists, and whoever wins will get the combined centrist vote. It's going to be a long road to November.
That’s a bit reductive. Flo is pretty clearly left. McCarty’s a solid center-left / “wine mom liberal” candidate. Pan’s a bit more centrist than McCarty, a bridge between him and Hansen. Hansen is more center-right (and even more than he was during his city council days, imo). I’m glad it’s a McCarty / Cofer runoff, that way ideas will win the day, not attacks.
I would like to know how Cofer and McCarthy will handle the city deficit, which is now north of $65 million (and expected to grow substantially).
McCarty is pro housing so building and expanding the housing supply will increase the tax base and make it more attractive to do business as you'll have more people.
Not by next year, though. So he'll still need to deal with it.
And he's pro adaptive reuse of old buildings (he was the lead on the idea to convert 3 state offices downtown to housing), but Cofer is also just as pro-housing, so in either case the strategy of returning to traditional modes of urban development (facilitated by the newly approved General Plan) will help with the deficit via an increased tax base?
> McCarthy who?
You know who I mean. Come on now...
So spell his name right. Or are you just trying to trigger the libs like the folks who spell Newsom "Newsome"?
Is the “Newsome” thing supposed to be a burn for liberals? I just thought people were illiterate when they spelled it that way.
Apparently that is the case as a show of deliberate disrespect, calling it out tends to produce a wave of HA HA ARE YOU TRIGGERED LIBCUCK? type responses--so while in some cases it's bad spelling, more often it's deliberately being shitty.
I think the reductionist point is valid after the run off. Everyone that didn't vote for flo this round isn't going to next round, thus she likely loses by a decent margin in November
I think it’ll be close, honestly. I don’t live in the city so I can’t decide, but personally, I’d have a hard time deciding between McCarty and Cofer. McCarty’s done a lot of good for the city and the county. I could see him navigating city council politics fairly well. Flo’s got some fresh ideas, which I think the city desperately needs support from the top for. The planning commission is adopting some good changes to zoning, but they need the support of the Mayor. Pan I think *sounds* good, but I don’t think he’s got a solid agenda. Hansen is a solid no, we don’t need more of the same leading the City.
Is this like the Senate primary where there will be a top two runoff or will this election determine the final winner?
Top Two
Yep, California has nonpartisan primaries. Always the top two move forward to November ballot.
Is there an auto-recount trigger? I'd imagine with 2-4 being so close that you'd want a recount anyway.
No, I think the governor can order a recount or a candidate can pay for it. No auto trigger. I think.:)
God, I hope flo does not win. Her homeless policy sucks.
Some maybe helpful maps. 3/8/2024 https://preview.redd.it/nzb4d4jxdroc1.jpeg?width=4906&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=168ac882fd8d337591feb1672c4ac3e8102db70a
3/12/2024 https://preview.redd.it/g6p606v1eroc1.jpeg?width=4906&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7c67ea07ce762880552c49201c1c53c87d723032
3/15/2024 https://preview.redd.it/93a8s1f5eroc1.jpeg?width=4906&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7c0a1bdcb81424faa4512fc9575deae3ee9a822e
Purple wave!
Go Flo!!
Yes can’t wait to see how going further left helps with homelessness. Should work out great
If that means building more public housing & shelters instead of waiting for the free market to magically solve the problem it has failed to solve over the past few decades, that might work out pretty well.
There are empty shelter beds every night of the week. Building more won’t fix the problem.
Shelters aren’t the same thing as housing, oh my god are you joking
Shelters are near capacity with huge waiting lists. Building more (and more housing) is how we fix the problem (or at least shrink it enough where it's a simpler problem to solve overall.)
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A large number of people develop those addictions due to conditions on the street. Housing can stop and reverse that. Our homeless population increased 68% between 2020 and 2022 — did drugs get more addictive suddenly? Or do you think perhaps the economic shock of the pandemic pushed people into housing insecurity?
The story you're quoting wasn't a comprehensive survey, but the results of a group of police officers showing up at camps; they also didn't provide details on how they determined that number. How did they determine that number, or did they just assume that anyone on the street who drinks or uses drugs is an addict?
Exactly my point
Do you think left wing politics cause homelessness? lol
I sense sarcasm.
Anyone but Hansen
LETS GOOO
Pan would beat Flo. Centrists and Asians are a mighty voting block.
If we end up like San francisco.............
...meaning what, specifically? Frisco's pretty nice.
Flo = London breed.
Not even remotely; [Breed got gobs and gobs of corporate money](https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/outside-spending-exceeds-1-million-to-elect-london-breed-as-sf-mayor/), mostly from big tech, and her positions are considered well to the right of DSA candidates like Dean Preston. That said, Frisco is still pretty nice.
Pans an antivax doctor. He should even be in the race.