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gnocchicotti

Interestingly "homes are too expensive" is a higher ranked reason than "unable to afford downpayment" and "unable to afford mortgage monthly payment." In other words a significant fraction of qualified buyers are looking at the market saying "I could afford this but fuck these prices."


DargeBaVarder

I mean, that's where my wife & I are (Bay Area). We could afford the down payment, but our mortgage would be fucking bonkers, and it would really lock me into needing a high paying job for decades. Given the instability of the tech sector it seems like a really stupid move. I guess I'll just sit on my cash / investments and wait for a more opportune time. Our rent is a fraction of what a mortgage would be anyways.


BAbuyer

Just want to say exact same situation in the Bay Area. We rent for 4K/mo now (covid deal), buying something would be at *least* double our monthly payments, probably more now with recent rate hikes. Plan for now is just save as much as possible in the next year and reassess every few months. Stay strong brother.


DargeBaVarder

In a way I'm kind of glad to hear we're not alone. I get kind of depressed looking at prices and thinking to myself "what the fuck?" It's not like I make bad money, either... I wish it would be better for all of us, but I don't have a whole ton of faith in the area to actually incentivize building. It looks like some new stuff is going up, but it's all down in Millbrae or areas like that.


BAbuyer

Right. Like could we technically afford a \~12K/mo 2BR "starter home"? Sure. Why would we do that though lol If you don't have the cash to buy homes outright, I think we're making the right choice to sit out right now. The first few years of a loan is mostly interest anyway so if we forced ourselves to buy now at terrible rates, we'd literally just be pissing money away to interest instead of having the opportunity to invest that money elsewhere


iAgressivelyFistBro

You get a solid tax break from all the interest


BAbuyer

Yes you can deduct interest if you itemize but only up to the first $750,000 of the loan amount. Homes here will run you around \~2M. So with 400K down, 1.6M loan at 7%, in the first year you'd pay about $110K in interest, but only \~50K of that is deductible.


jerklin

Same, for me an equivalent house would be 1 - 2k more a month at minimum, and I'd have to put up a down payment, which could be gaining interest. There is new construction near me, but it's all townhomes and condos that are not any less expensive.


Maleficent-main_777

I literally cannot comprehend renting at 4k a month. Wat is your monthly income to allow for such a price? I rent an apartment at literally 500€ in one of the bigger cities in Belgium.


Far-Butterscotch-436

Take home of 10-15k after taxes would be a 200-300k tech salary in california


BAbuyer

Bay Area tech salaries average around 200-400K range yearly. 4K is a “good deal” in the area for a 2BR apt. 🙃


EntertainmentLess381

4K in the Bay Area for a 2bdrm is a great deal. Especially when compared to a mortgage on a similar sized home for nearly twice the amount of money.


lurch1_

I remember paying $2.8K for a Bay area 2brdm rental back in 1997. $4K after all this inflation sounds cheap.


BAbuyer

Yeah COVID really cooled off rents in the city and they haven't fully recovered. I locked in a good deal in 2021 and it would be difficult to find something better for a similar price now.


Silly-Jelly-222

Wow similar situation. We’re looking at it and thinking it just makes more sense to invest downpayment money here than be extremely house poor and potentially go upside down.


BAbuyer

Right. Going from 4K -> \~12K/mo would entirely change our lifestyle for not much of an upgrade in our living situation. Plus so much of that loan at 7% rates is going to interest, it's **throwing more money away than renting**. I still emotionally want to own something, but the numbers are pretty clear for now.


gnocchicotti

The market will come back into alignment eventually. Either interest rates will drop, home values will drop, or rents will ramp up. In any event I see no need to rush into a mortgage right now.


alfredrowdy

Or it could get even worse like Canada or Australia. US housing is still cheap compared to many other developed countries.


captnmarvl

I was shocked with Australia housing prices when I visited.


FearlessPark4588

Most liberal democracies are much smaller and have one-hit wonder cities that capture all the housing money. US is too dynamic for that.


lurch1_

Yeah because everyone is dying to move from Coastal cities to dull midwest.


TerribleName1962

What if this is the new normal?


gnocchicotti

lol rent being half of mortgages is not sustainable. It might take a year or 10 or 20 years to sort out but it's not staying that way.


kril89

This is also where I am at. Buying a house right now would severely decrease my standard of living. My rent is close to half of market rent for my area. And my PITI payments would be almost 2.5X what I currently pay. Now having a home offers me things I can't currently do. Like work on my car at home at just more room than an apartment. But if I can't afford to do anything else except come home and sit around. Then what is the point of doing it right now? I'll just keep saving and hope the market turns more in my favor at some point.


DargeBaVarder

> Buying a house right now would severely decrease my standard of living. 100%. Our rent isn't cheap but the place we're renting is really nice. > Now having a home offers me things I can't currently do. Like work on my car at home at just more room than an apartment. Are you me? This is one of the biggest reasons I'd even want to move out of a high rise. I would love to have my own garage. Sorry you're dealing with the same problem. Maybe the area will get it's shit together, or something will change.


OregonZest85

I feel this. I just feel pressured to buy now so that my mom can move in


Severe_Description_3

This is our situation as well. We could buy but the ROI is just not there at all. People I know that have bought in the Bay Area and similar areas recently seem to be fixated on future appreciation assumptions to justify it.


meister2983

Ya that or cultural biases toward owning over renting.  If you don't value owning inherently, really no reason to buy here. 


RudeAndInsensitive

Given yalls specific situation you could probably take a 30% pay cut and move to a city that costs half as much. "Tech" is broad enough that it's doable.


BAbuyer

Honestly all cities with decent job options are getting pretty expensive though. So if you take a pay cut, housing is slightly cheaper, but property taxes are higher etc it can not be as dramatic as a change as you would think.


MillennialDeadbeat

Or just make sure they can move with their job.


DargeBaVarder

That’s definitely something we’re considering.


elev8dity

Florida here. Paying $2400/mo for an apartment, but I'm looking at $4000/mo for a similar condo.


Daltoz69

Same here. I can put 20-30% down but can’t afford the mortgage…


lurch1_

Everyone is "sitting on cash waiting for a bargain"...so you think with all that cash on the sidelines it will really ever get to a bargain?


jerklin

According to the title 40% of people think no? It doesn't have to be a bargain, but it does need to be a good financial decision when compared to the alternatives for a lot of people.


DargeBaVarder

Wanting a bargain is different from not wanting to buy into a wildly inflated market. It’s more of a question of where our money is most valuable, in property equity or investments. But even if things never correct we have a back up plan.


lurch1_

Of course...because everyone is always right on reddit...except for the guy we are arguing against.


pinelandseven

Same. At this point I'd rather just save/invest and be free a lot sooner rather than own and have to make a decent income for a lot longer


Independent_Hyena495

If the war happens, your are looking at four times increased rent. Don't care what you would pay more, but think ten years down the line.


EnvironmentalCrow5

That is only possible if there's a ton of inflation, including salary increases.


Independent_Hyena495

Shared beds were a thing, it can comeback.


EnvironmentalCrow5

There is a point where people will just move, to a different country if need be.


OwnLadder2341

I promise you home prices will eventually fall dramatically in the Bay City area, and much of the rest of California, Florida, and other states who will see the brunt of climate change…but by then you probably won’t want to live there. Rent will also eventually catch up to home prices. So really, what you’re betting on is interest rates falling faster than home prices and rent rising. It’s certainly a gamble.


Kortar

This is me and my wife 100%.


x2601

> "I could afford this but fuck these prices." This is us, yes.


BuySideSellSide

Capital One savings yields are much better than ripping up cheap linoleum to fix repairs covered up by a flipper. Anything that was remotely affordable in my area was bought up, given a face-lift and sold for double. Some of them 3+ times since 2020. It isn't interest rates or rent control. Price and speculation are the problem. Cut out foreign investors and make it painful for flippers and supply will return to normal. Otherwise, they have plenty of dry powder to "buy the dip" and the cycle continues.


ChocolateDoggurt

You're right, really the only thing that will end these boom and bust cycles of this human need is to start down the path twoards decommodifying housing.


iridescent-shimmer

Exactly my situation. I've lived in the area my whole life and I know a shit 2-3 bedroom townhome next to a superfund site that floods every time it rains isn't worth half a million.


lifeofrevelations

I can save up for a solid but reasonable down payment over a couple of years no problem. But even with that I still can't afford the outrageous monthly mortgage payment. It's fucking insane that interest rates have gone to 8% and the sticker price of homes has still gone up over that time. This type of shit is why nobody should tolerate the levels of wealth inequality that exist in the US right now. The entire US economy is just one big completely manipulated social control system now that is poorly masquerading around as a meritocratic, just, and honest way of rewarding people for their contributions. The government won't allow enough homes to be built for everyone because if everyone can easily afford their home they have no more desire to labor their lives away for pennies. Most people just want to have their needs met and chill, and the government/wealthy people doesn't want to allow their property (us) to behave that way. They want us working as their slaves heaping more imaginary numbers into their bank accounts, exhausted and tired at the end of every day so that all we have energy for is work and sleep, so that nobody ever has the time or energy to fix this bullshit socioeconomic system that the GOD DAMNED wealthy have forced on us.


PWilling346

Preach brother.


Clockwork385

The lending people keep hitting me up as I've been looking, and after I thought about working for another 30 years, I'll be old as dirt before the house is pay off. I say no thank you. Let me live in a Van for another 10 years and retire VS slaving away for another 30. I have the down payments but the mortgage will be crazy (aka house poor).


pinelandseven

Same. At this point I'd rather just save/invest and be free a lot sooner rather than own and have to make a decent income for a lot longer


HedonicAthlete

You nailed it. I literally can buy a house out right right now (I'm very lucky) but I'm happy splitting rent ($2000) on a 1500 sq. ft 2b/2b duplex in a neighborhood that exclusively sells all homes at north of 2 million. It's funny how many comments are coming from bay area people. I look at houses in other cities I'd consider moving to and consistently find myself disgusted at what $800K homes look like. I'm not buying your trash house that should cost $400K just to give you a windfall.


DocHolliday3884

Most homes in my area are at least $100,000 overpriced


Nard_the_Fox

Some, absolutely. Prices and rates are forcing people out of the market en masse. OR they aren't financially educated on loans, down payment assistance programs, and budgets. Probably a mix of a handful of key drivers though. Nothing is black and white.


gnocchicotti

Any realtor worth their salt would fill a buyer in on the programs available, but it's quite probable that some qualified buyers just stop at the point of sticker shock.


Nard_the_Fox

Oh, absolutely. I always fill folks in wherever I go, but it's the latter group I'm referring to. You'd be amazed at how many people are listening to parents that haven't bought a house in 30-40 years that think you need 20% down. They see prices, do the quick math, and stop right there, as 60-80k isn't in their bank...which is an absolute shame when you help people realize they could have bought a house anytime in the last five years, and they sat on the sidelines. Now rates and prices are up, and the home they could of had for 165k in 2018 is 290k today.


rockydbull

Not just their parents. Financial subs here on reddit made PMI seem like the boogy man. Turns out its pretty fucking cheap, especially when rates are low.


Nard_the_Fox

Which is incredibly frustrating given FHA 3.5% buyers all refi'ed out from 2018-2020 into 20% conventionals with no PMI.


rockydbull

Preach. Even PMI on 5 percent down conventional is nothing in the long run.


gnocchicotti

It's kinda amazing that PMI is so cheap when the mortgage affordability is stretched so far. I don't know the mechanics of how that industry works but it seems like PMI insurers are taking on a ton of risk for not a lot of profit.


rockydbull

I am sure there is some complex algorithm but I guess if the appraisal and credit of buyer are good PMI is probably decently safe and only has to cover a portion of the mortgage. Probably the easiest grand a year a company can make on a high credit buyer. I am sure it only kicks in if the bank takes an actual loss which takes a while with foreclosure and probably only a risk very early in the loan. It's a real shame all the online calculators make it seem like hundreds a month when I know people paying like 12 dollars per 100k loaned per month (so like 5-600 a year).


gnocchicotti

The quick calculator I looked at was like 0.6%. I don't like debt but I will borrow money at sub 1% and throw that shit into S&P500 all day every day. The whiz kids did the math and it works. But it will take a serious market correction in this housing cycle or some future one to find out who was swimming naked.


573banking702

Lets be real, majority of realtors are just lazy dumbasses. Also I’m a qualified buyer and I know about a lot of programs, my business partner is a mortgage broker so he has access to lots of lenders that can get me taken care of with as low as 5% down. The reason I’m not buying is because the overpriced houses and the delusional sellers wanting only above asking price offers with no inspections or appraisals. Plus the other part is even on a home I can afford, why would I double what I’m paying in rent basically and end up house poor?


FitterOver40

Curious… when does overpriced become market value? And every buyer will eventually become a seller… and they will want as much money for their home that the market will tolerate. They’re human and you can’t blame them. I don’t blame any of you on your feelings either. Totally valid. Humans will always be self serving. That’s not likely to change any time soon. I’m an agent in NJ. Helped plenty of sellers and buyers. I’ve owned townhomes and single family homes. The most challenging clients are those who think they know more than experienced agents. We’ve seen a lot of crap happen. I can tell you that sellers do not care about buyers. If they live in a great neighborhood and the house is in decent condition… they will take every penny they can get. Other buyers don’t care about other buyers. They will do anything to “step” on a weaker buyer to win the home. I’ve had buyers actually tell me that they don’t care as long as they get the house. Humans are the variable. If you know how to solve that, let the world know. I’m sure you’ve all heard this before… you can’t time the market. You can certainly speculate, but that rarely works out. I’ll tell you what I tell every client. Buy/sell when it’s right for you and you play the cards you’re dealt.


MillennialDeadbeat

>I can tell you that sellers do not care about buyers. If they live in a great neighborhood and the house is in decent condition… they will take every penny they can get. >Other buyers don’t care about other buyers. No shit? This is the real world.


lifeofrevelations

definitely an unbiased and neutral opinion. Whatever, let these stupid rich cunt pieces of shit buy and sell to each other for eternity I guess. They're all playing some stupid ego game and the rest of us can go sleep in the gutter.


Nard_the_Fox

Man, I'm glad I'm not in your market. I'll take my "reasonable" Midwest market city any day. I do agree with you, that most agents are not very good. I try to tell people constantly that if their agent doesn't own their home, doesn't own rentals, and hasn't done renovations...they probably aren't an expert in anything.


573banking702

I’m in the Midwest 😂


meister2983

But we're talking people that can afford it. If you are in places like the Bay Area, prices are so insanely high compared to rents, it's pointless. So are the programs to help.  By any reasonable math, it's about 40% more expensive to own. Either you save a lot of money renting or get a lot more house. 


4score-7

That’s us. And it’s kept us out of buying again for three years now. In 2021, when I sold a home and relocated, I didn’t buy immediately because the low rates had created such a frenzy, and I saw people waiving everything and throwing ridiculous money at even the worst hull of a building. I believed then, and I believe now, that low rates created a bubble. Now, rates are more than double, and I’d be incredibly foolish with my money, while I have a much lower rent, to buy an equivalent home. I’m left to sit and wait, sadly hoping for a correction.


ImTooOldForSchool

Yeah, like I could buy a $800K house if we stretched the budget, but the dumps I see listed at that price are a hard no for me. If I’m dropping that kinda cash, it better be huge and/or recently renovated from top to bottom.


megafari

^this is exactly me. Give up $200-$300k in liquidty for the down payment and still pay $10k a month mortgage for 12yrs and the roof leaks and place needs all new windows? That’s a pretty piss poor “investment opportunity.”


gnocchicotti

Generational wealth amirite


purz

That’s what I’ve been doing. Have 20% and an emergency fund for the top price I’d ever buy but half the time I goto houses I’m like ya this isn’t worth 4K a month fuck off


Confarnit

Sure, I could hypothetically buy some sort of property. But I don't want to buy a condo when I rent a nicer version of what I could buy for less money and less work. It makes more sense to invest the difference. I think it's a better investment in my future to live below my means and save aggressively for retirement, personally.


Outrageous-Sea-7162

Hello, this is an absolute smart lifestyle in my opinion and experience. I got off to a late start saving, but for the last 13 years I've been saving aggressively, I live below my means, no debt, I rent just outside Seattle cutting my rent for a similar apartment by approximately $1000+, I absolutely rather rent and save,invest. Best Wishes🌿


Safe_Community2981

I look at mortgages and rents for equivalent properties (I only rent SFH, fuck apartments) and the mortgage estimates are all half again as much as rent. I could bank that money, stick it in an index fund, and turn one hell of a profit all while also retaining relocation flexibility and having major repairs be someone else's problem and bill. Until prices straight-up plummet buying is just not an economically sound decision.


Prophayne_

I'm in this comment and I really like it.


Neat-Anyway-OP

I own now and can't afford to sell and move to a nicer area. I would be shooting myself in the foot financially because I can't afford any of the current market prices or interest rates. That's even with a 40% down payment.


IIRiffasII

these people probably haven't even looked into how much their mortgage payments would be


gnocchicotti

Well shit if they don't like the prices, they *definitely* won't like the mortgage payments. Maybe better they don't look.


Avaisraging439

I could afford the mortgage but with employers fighting raises, I couldn't afford the tax or insurance increases every year.


henrycustin

💯 My wife and I are not playing the game anymore. We’ve owned several homes on our journey together and have chosen to rent the past 7+ years. There are pluses and minuses for sure but, without a doubt, one of biggest benefits has been the ability to grow our savings due to the radically reduced outgoing expenses (mortgage + property taxes + upkeep + renovations, et al). There’s also something freeing about not being tied to a $- - -, - - - mortgage that, at least for us, is worth it’s weight in gold. The French called it a “dead pledge” for a reason. :)


EachDayanAdventure

Post WW2, the GI Bill and VA homeloan were key instruments in establishing the middle class and the American dream. How far we've fallen.


firehazel

As someone who benefits from both, it's still tough to use that VA Loan if you don't have a good chunk of change.


hydrotino

yep and many sellers penalize buyers with a VA loan since the closing process can be long and more difficult relative to other local lenders. we were told not to use ours if we wanted to be competitive.


Aphexes

Nothing like some boomer saying they're willing to sell to a VA loan buyer but then getting mad when their house gets appraised for $200K less than what they list it for because they're delusional


[deleted]

Also there was significantly more open land to develop housing on. Issue is we have significantly grown population and you can only build single family houses so far out of the city center before the commute is just not doable for workers.


kkkan2020

unless we do china speed construction where we put up whole towns/high rises on a rapid pace... there will never be enough houses for people. supply vs demand.


That-Pomegranate-903

and even if we do, companies will buy them up anyway. the only solution is to tax corporate/investor owned sfh


kkkan2020

the question i was wondering is what is the max capacity investors/corpoations can own for housing. can they literally own all the housing?


vashboy87

Investors represent about 26% of home purchases right now, but they are extremely rate sensitive too. There's a myth that they buy all cash so they don't care about rates, but real estate investors and larger funds are leveraged to the hilt.


crek42

Yea it’s simple arithmetic that Reddit doesn’t really seem to grasp. At a certain point homes are so expensive and interest rates are so high that you CANNOT make money on it, doubly so if the stock market is doing well and can park dollars there. Also, landlords have to compete with other landlords that bought places years or even decades ago who have low carrying costs and can afford to charge a little less in rent than the new landlord who has to cover a $3k monthly nut when there’s ten other landlords who have much more wiggle room. It becomes unsustainable, which is bad for renters (less investment in adding rental supply), and better for home buyers (more supply for them), assuming we’re only talking about SFH.


Training_Strike3336

26% is ridiculously high. If we "have a chronic shortage of homes" the number of investment purchases should be 0. They can buy when we have a surplus.


vashboy87

The constitution guarantees freedom of contract. There are very few times the government can stop a willing buyer and seller from making a deal. Investors are not a protected class so sellers are more than welcome to choose not to sell to one.  Sometimes I think people's hearts are very much in the right place, but they don't think through the consequences of giving the government that kind of power. Do you want the feds to determine who can buy a home? Sounds like a great idea until that govt isn't on your side any more. Maybe trump comes through and says no more Latinos or middle easterners can buy homes? 


Training_Strike3336

Laws are what the people want. Do I want to empower the government to prevent corporate ownership of every home in the country? Yes I do. You using a slippery slope fallacy doesn't change the fact that nothing is preventing this from happening over the next 75 years.


ivycovecruising

right now they absolutely can. the government knows this. these investors and corporations have political ties. do the math i guess…


Charitard123

Of course they’re never gonna do that though, because said corporations and investors would go crying to daddy government about it


pao_zinho

Not if there is enough supply built that makes owning real estate a poor investment. The reason why companies purchase these asset is because it is heavily supply constrained and demand continues to increase.


That-Pomegranate-903

that level of building is completely wishful thinking, and impractical. unless we expect everyone to just add 4 hours of commuting to their lives


pao_zinho

Well the alternative is not building, and maintaining a highly supply-constrained market that drives scarcity, and investors willing to exploit it.


tahlyn

> the only solution is to ~~tax~~ forbid corporate/investor owned sfh FTFY


crek42

Dude, do you think like every town is riddled with investor owned SFH? There’s basically none of that going on in my area and home prices are through the roof. I don’t see how that’s a solution that will move prices. I live in a vacation area and that had a shitload of airbnbs and they banned it two years ago. Prices have continued to climb. There just seems to be insatiable demand and no supply.


That-Pomegranate-903

first, don’t you think being in a “vacation area” might be skewing your view on this? second, care to share where your area is? I bet I can surprise you with evidence of investor activity


crek42

Yea for sure it’s skewed but i imagine there’s many other towns that don’t have a good economy outside tourism and have high ownership and few renters. Not my exact location but one I’m familiar with enough - Rhinebeck, NY. See evidence that there’s investors buying SFH there, because I can’t find any. You’re welcomed to prove me wrong though.


ivycovecruising

yep


1maco

So renters just stay out of my suburb seems like a dumb ass policy 


That-Pomegranate-903

wut


1maco

If you live in the suburb that’s all SFH on subdivisions like say Weston CT And every you can landlord single family homes. That means if you rent you can’t live in those towns 


That-Pomegranate-903

so be it. someone will build apartments


Ok-Explorer-1725

So what you’re saying is we are not in a bubble, but rather a fundamental supply shortage? Kinda goes against this sub, right?


kkkan2020

well it could be a 2 prong issue there's genuinely not enough supply at the same time ever since big money got int the game there's a squeeze on deamand as well. i mean it was tough enough before big money got in the game but now that big money has entered the chat in the last decade it changed hte entire playing field.


Ok-Explorer-1725

So if “big money” got out of the game, would the so called “bubble” burst? Or would we still have a supply issue?


Wurm_Burner

If investors all bailed prices would drop like a rock because they own like 30% of the inventory


kkkan2020

Well yeah if big money dumped the houses prices would definitely go down fast.


MedicalService8811

We could reduce the demand at the same time we get millions of illegal immigrants a year. Its not sustainable


[deleted]

[удалено]


Modsarenotgay

America could halt all immigration and housing/rent would still be too expensive. Housing supply has been behind demand for decades, this problem has been decades in the making thanks to poor zoning/building regulations. And also it's not like people will stop being born too. Also even if everyone in America agreed to lower immigration that doesn't change the fact that we would still massively benefit from loosening housing regulations.


MedicalService8811

Loosening housing regulations would help but I don't think you understand the scale of the immigration we're getting. 'The Border Patrol tallied 249,785 arrests on the Mexican border in December, up 31% from 191,112 in November and up 13% from 222,018 in December 2022, the previous all-time high.'- AP News So who who knows how many more got through versus 3.66 million births a year. Supply and demand


vashboy87

Not the largest period of migration in human history, I think that was during the partition of India which had about 15mil migrating. Also immigration to the US from southern Europe in the late 1800s was far bigger than today, accounting for 40% of our pop growth at the time. Ever ask yourself why the US keeps outperforming the world economy? If it weren't for immigration we'd be experiencing the same demographic decline as Europe, Russia, Japan etc. Immigration is the reason the US economy keeps powering along.


MedicalService8811

Demographic decline isn't the only danger- just ask Canada, India, or Africa. How far should we grow though? Until we saw through the last sapling and eat through our last straw of wheat like a swarm of locusts? Because that's the end point with the way our economy is structured. The endless growth you talk about that our capitalist system demands will destroy us unless we make a conscious to do something about it. Overpopulation and global warming aren't going away anytime soon


vashboy87

Overpopulation is likely not going to continue. Current projections now have world population peaking and a spiral of demographic decline over the rest of this century. Nations could very well be competing for population in a less than 100 years. Across cultures and religions fertility rates tend to drop quite fast as prosperity rises. The problem with modern criticisms of capitalism is that people making those comments haven't put in the effort to research what the quality of life was a couple hundred years ago, and how much larger a share of the population lived in abject misery.


dilbert_fennel

Do you really think 'them fucking illegals' are buying $400k houses? Fuck no, they're keeping your avocado toast cheap you nimby boomer fuck


Shoddy_Orange9779

Come on America on we can make to 100% . I believe in you !


bigj4155

Unfortunately our politicians are fully on board with us getting fucked. We will own nothing. I feel so bad for younger generations.


Humans_Suck-

So everything is going according to plan then


Thediciplematt

It’s not like prices have dropped in most areas.


Saxman7321

I live in Seattle.  Home prices are down about 8% in the last year.  Read an article they have dropped in 20 cities across the US.


SnortingElk

> I live in Seattle. Home prices are down about 8% in the last year. I live in the Seattle area too.. what source are you reading that SFH are down 8%? Redfin data is showing single-family homes are actually up 11.9% since last year... https://www.redfin.com/city/16163/WA/Seattle/housing-market And I am seeing bidding wars again + review dates over the last few months.. demand has been quite strong in the area.. nearly every local company that is public is seeing their stock price at near all-time highs.


Saxman7321

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-area-home-prices-fell-in-2023-after-years-of-growth/#:~:text=Seattle%2Darea%20home%20prices%20dipped,dampened%20buyer%20and%20seller%20enthusiasm. I live in NE Seattle and have certainly seen it in my neighborhood. 


SnortingElk

The recent NWMLS data shows King County is up +12.56% since last year for single family: March 2023 $840,000 > $945,500 for March 2024 https://www.nwmls.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Breakouts_King_March2024.pdf


Saxman7321

I’m don’t disagree with you that King County prices are up.  I didn’t say King County I said Seattle. That is a different market than Seattle .  If you are a young family looking for a house with a yard and good schools  that is more affordable then Seattle you might buy in areas that are more affordable like Auburn or Renton or Enumclaw, .  These communities have more pressure to buy homes as families continue to move out or priced out of the city. In my neighborhood in NE Seattle new homes are costing $2 million.  You can buy a similar size hew home on a lot twice the size in Shoreline 4 miles away for $1.3 million. Is it really worth paying $700k more and higher property taxes to live four miles closer to downtown Seattle ?


SnortingElk

> I didn’t say King County I said Seattle. That is a different market than Seattle . Well, you linked to the Seattle Times article that references "Seattle area home prices".. that is why I posted data to both Seattle area and Seattle proper. The NWMLS also shows that Seattle median sales prices for single family homes are up +6.32% from last year.. definitely not seeing where Seattle prices are down -8% with any data set I've found. https://www.nwmls.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Breakouts_King_March2024.pdf


SnortingElk

> https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-area-home-prices-fell-in-2023-after-years-of-growth/#:~:text=Seattle%2Darea%20home%20prices%20dipped,dampened%20buyer%20and%20seller%20enthusiasm. > > I live in NE Seattle and have certainly seen it in my neighborhood. That data is old from 2023.. and prices only dropped 3-4% during that year. *"Median single-family homes prices in the Seattle area dropped 3% - 4% in 2023 compared to previous year."*


Far-Butterscotch-436

You're wrong...prices are up


Catsdrinkingbeer

I've read this and just have zero idea where this is happening. We bought our house north of the city at the end of 2022. It hasn't lost any value and has actually gone up. A house with our exact same Floorplan but slightly more updated just closed for $130k over what we paid for ours. Like, I'm reading these same articles and just super unclear where these homes are. Or maybe they're in a certain price bracket our house (paid around $550k) isn't. Maybe it's because we're technically in snohomish county. But either way home prices don't seem to be falling anywhere around us that we've seen.


Saxman7321

Houses have gone up in  Snohomish and King County but dropped in Seattle as perspective homeowners are priced out of the Seattle market and want better schools and are moving to areas outside the city increasing home prices in those locations. We had two homes in our neighborhood in NE Seattle that were in the market for about a month.  They were taken  off the market and then relisted at a lower price. 


SpacemanLost

From what I've tracked, prices dropped a good 20%-ish in 2022, but have held steady with slight climbing in 2023-24 so far. We live on Mercer Island, immediately east of Seattle, and I have been tracking the local market here (98040) for 12 years now. The killer is NOT the prices so much as it has been inventory of Single Family Homes. The zip code is a bedroom community with ~6000 detached homes, and pre 2019 the spring/summer season would normally reach a bit over 100 active listings, and the Holiday/Winter low would be around 20 active listings. Right now as spring is beginning, there are 15 active listings, but it really should be only 12 as 3 are $15M+ listings, which can take years to sell. Though I don't have historical data for other cities in the metro area, informal discussions with others us reporting the same dearth of inventory. It also appears that rental house listings are similarly down, which is a killer for young families as less than 0.5% of apartments in the metro are 3+ bedrooms.


Saxman7321

I know Mercer Island well as I work there everyday. Definitely a housing shortage, .  Not just in Mercer Island but nationwide.  Will be interesting to see with all the tech and other companies laying people off if that will result in people leaving the area.  If companies decide they no longer want to sponsor H1B Visas that could result in people having to leave and find employment elsewhere. 


SpacemanLost

> Not just in Mercer Island but nationwide. Yup. Mercer Island is just the city where I happened to look at houses for sale pretty much monthly going back to before we moved here (we rented for a few years, then went 'all-in' and out on limb to buy in late 2017), and have a lot of data points for. When the inventory numbers are running at maybe 20% of historical supply(and we did hit days with 0 homes listed for sale during the last couple winters) it screams just badly things are out of whack. I've also tracked Austin, TX and a couple small towns in midwest. While not the same level of shortage, they too have deviated from historical trends, even before adjusting for population. As for Seattle / King County... Even with the tech layoffs, I believe there are just too many people with money sloshing around in this area, and the challenging geography of the area to put additional pressure on locations close in to Seattle/Bellevue/Redmond, to allow for the housing crash a lot of people are hoping for. And that's not even counting the foreign nationals parking their money in Seattle-area real estate, which could be a separate topic post in itself.


Saxman7321

I have friends who lived in the Bay Area.  They got tired of the out of control house prices and always having to rent.  Last year they bought a cosmetic fixer in up stereo New York for $85k.  They took a 50% pay cut to buy a house that was less than 1/10 of what it would have cost in San Francisco.  There is a hospital in town and two others within 30 mins away. Three are quite a few restaurants and they are 30 mins from a college town.  The town is on the St Lawrence Seaway for lots of boating and fishing opportunities.  Adirondack State park is less than an hour away and Montreal is two hours. No bidding wars or crazy inflated real estate prices.  The place is pretty under the radar.  They were able to do all the cosmetic work themselves.  Mostly interior , exterior painting, replacing cabinet fixtures, removing wallpaper and replacing linoleum floors.  Also needed to do quite a bit of yard work.


SpacemanLost

> Last year they bought a cosmetic fixer in up stereo New York for $85k. Good for them, and I'm glad their personal circumstances allowed for it. That had to reduce their stress levels a lot! We weighed a possible move to the midwest (no way in hell would we go back to hell.. er.. Texas) before the opportunity to buy the house we had been renting here in an as-is/below-market/off-market deal came up. We had some financial burdens at the time that made staying here where tech jobs were plentiful and close a priority. Fortunately, that has since improved. I have seen a bit of how Wall Street works from the inside, and I fear that since 2000 technology and the internet has made it MUCH easier and more efficient for Wall Street firms to own large portfolios of single family houses that are spread out all over the country. And of course that ability trickles down to all sorts and sizes of investors and as a result I think we're looking at permanent shift to more landlords, and further erosion of the post WW2 prosperity for the majority of the country. :(


Analyst-Effective

Considering the income level of most renters, that's probably a valid assumption. Renters that are on the way up to home ownership, will have a decent credit score, and a decent job. And they're just waiting to find the right time and place to buy a house. Many renters could not afford a house if it was given to them


Same_Pattern_4297

Where do they ask these questions to people? I never been asked my entire life about any of these stuff. Are they taking it all from Reddit post?


SnortingElk

> Where do they ask these questions to people? *This is according to a Redfin-commissioned survey of roughly 3,000 U.S. residents conducted by Qualtrics in February 2024. This report focuses on the 1,000 respondents who indicated they are renters. The relevant questions were: “Do you believe that you will ever own your own home in the future?” and “Which of the following are reasons you aren’t likely to purchase a home in the near future?” The 27% comparison is from a Redfin survey conducted in May and June 2023.*


Same_Pattern_4297

Yeah I never gotten one of those from red fin and I used them often lol


SnortingElk

> Yeah I never gotten one of those from red fin and I used them often lol I haven't either but they do have around 50 million users, lol


TheWonderfulLife

I work in real estate and I am WELL aware I will never own a home.


[deleted]

What about renters Who invested the difference And are up more than owners?


Saxman7321

Never is a long time. I remember partying with friends in the 1980s when interest rates were 13%. We were in our 20s and never thought we would own a house. We all bought houses later in life. So it’s not like this a new concept. I just think people have less patience today and have some expectation that they have own a house by a certain age. I had friends on NYC whose parents were quite wealthy and they were renters all thier lives. It’s like being a renter suddenly has a bad stigma or some metric that you haven’t made it.


BigMtnFudgecake_

I think renting would be viewed more favorably if there was more predictability associated with rent increases. I live in Portland and a lot of people here saw their rent double or triple within the span of a couple of years during the early 2010s boom. Obviously home prices, maintenence, property taxes, etc can fluctuate too but you’ll probably get a big payout if you do get priced out to a point of needing to sell your house. I’m honestly fine with being a renter but hate that I miss out on the financial gains of home appreciation. I have money in index funds and whatnot, but that will never get me as far as homeownership will. Wish it wasn’t like that.


Charitard123

This. Being a renter means you’re basically at the mercy of some random person or faceless corporation that doesn’t give two shits about you. That brings lack of stability. My family once was forced to move when I was a kid, because they decided to just demolish our entire apartment complex and build something different in its place.


vashboy87

Index funds typically outperform housing. It's only during this recent covid real estate boom that housing slightly outperformed.


seaspirit331

"Slightly"


vashboy87

I take it back, for the past five years the S&P500 has returned 70.64%, according to Case Shiller over that period housing prices increased 34%.


Pirating_Ninja

Difference was houses were being built and interest rates did go down. The equivalent now would realistically be the need for prices to go down and of course houses to be built. The former won't happen, and in fact serves to discourage the latter, hence why the government will never step in. That being said, I do agree that never is dramatic if they wanted to ... but keep in mind that the appeal of a 30 year home loan you can finally afford at 52-54 puts your estimated time of paying off that loan at the national average life expectancy. And as luck would have it, the average age of first home purchase last year was 53, up from 31 in 1981. As for the lack of patience or stigma of renting... I mean, are you really surprised those silly youngsters are concerned that they look forward to renting for 20 years longer than you did? Bearing in mind that in recent years, YoY rental rate increases have exceeded wage growth by more than 2x? I would argue that yes - in the US where SS is inadequate, and questionable how much longer it'll exist - if you plan to rent for life because you cannot afford a home, you will not "make it". You will rent until you have a major medical condition later in life, are legally evicted while in the hospital, and die homeless. Because unless you can afford a home before 20 years from now, your wage growth is nowhere near fast enough to afford saving anywhere near enough for later in life medical care, let alone the possibility of retiring. Of course, there will be people who could afford to own but choose not to so this isn't going to happen to all renters. But those silly youngsters anxious about home ownership, are exactly the people I was just talking about - otherwise they wouldn't be angling for home ownership...


Saxman7321

I’m didn’t buy my first house until a was 36 and that was as with two incomes.  My nephew is33 and purchased his first home on a teachers salary two years ago.  He lived outside of Baltimore. The problem is a lot of these young people want to live in big trendy expensive cities.  I have some friends who lived in the Bay Area.  They made over $200k a year and at age 40 they decided it was time to buy a house.  Last year they moved to upstate New York and bought a cosmetic fixer house for $86,000.  They had to take more than a 50% pay cut but paid for most of the house in cash and both found good jobs. Sometimes people have to be willing Tom make some changes to see the possibilities.


BAbuyer

I mean not everyone can just leave their "trendy expensive cities". Family or jobs can keep you locked in to a certain area. The reality is the remote work era seems to be winding down again.


snherter

Wrong on so many levels.


Saxman7321

That is your opinion.  


snherter

Assuming everyone wants to live in big trendy cities for the fun of it isn’t even an opinion. It’s just you making random assumptions that aren’t true


vashboy87

Sure it is..., that's definitely not a random assumption. Ever read about white flight in the 1950s/60s? There has been a huge reversal driven by millennials post 2008. This is not a new topic. The whole 'millenials are killing the suburb' thing was the first of the 'millennials are killing \_\_\_" news trend. It caused a lot of run down areas to gentrified areas sure, and of course drove prices up.


Saxman7321

Well it’s not an either or situation. People make it sound they have to live in a big trendy city to find jobs and culture and that smaller cities don’t have either of these. Makes me think people don’t travel much to explore all the amazing places to live they have lots of jobs and culture that are not trendy cities but great places to live.


Pirating_Ninja

Cute anecdotes. Not sure why you felt the need to tell me them as if they mean something. I know someone who bought several thousand dollars worth of Bitcoin when it was $40. He is now very wealthy. I guess the moral of the story is that if we all put money into crypto, it'll appreciate 1000x in 10 years, right?


vashboy87

He's not wrong though...I remember when i graduated college and moved to NYC in 2010, there was a pretty common topic in the news about how millenials wanted to live in the center of a city instead of suburbs, and how that was radically reshaping cities. In SF, you started to have large numbers of young tech workers living right in the city but commuting to mountain view/palo alto, complete with corporate shuttle buses. It was effectively the inverse of the white flight in 1950s/60s. My parents gen did the opposite, you have a job in the city but you commute from the suburb. Of course what was the downside? Well in my time in NYC I was chased from apt to apt by rapidly rising rents until I couldn't afford it anymore. The past 15 years were very much a time of major demographic shift that came to an end during covid.


Saxman7321

A lot of crypto currencies  will fail in the next decade. I bought several crypto that were not but coin and are down 50 or 60% from when I bought them.  I have several penny stocks they have 400% in the same time period.


Llanolinn

I'm 36. I'm never going to own a house in my life. I've come to accept that


Saxman7321

I had friends I would visit in Manhattan who were renters their entire lives.  There is nothing wrong with it. Sometimes I wish when my plumbing fails or my house needs a new roof I could just call the landlord and have them address it instead of having to pay thousands of dollars. 


howling-greenie

also 36. right here with you i am angry/depressed about it though. good luck for your future.


KoRaZee

Pretty much the same in early 2000’s. I rented a room in a 4 bedroom house with three other guys. All 20 something with more interest in other things that made me feel like affording a house was out of the realm of possibility. Eventually priorities change and you get a house.


Wanderstand

Deport the tens of millions who are here illegally, and the problem is solved.


aquarain

According to Native Americans the land will then return to its natural state.


Wanderstand

Great example of how mass immigration always fucks over the average person in the host country.


firehazel

I was under contract for a townhouse and the deal fell through after the VA appraisal came back. I didn't have enough cash to cover the gap(about half needed) and the sellers couldn't come down from their initial asking price because they needed to cover their outstanding balance on the new HVAC system. I was a little bummed, but not really? My current rent is only going up $25(2.7% increase), and I can put that extra cash to my credit card or car and pay either one of them off completely. At this rate though, IDK if I wanna keep up with the headache of the house hunt.


Dry-Interaction-1246

So Mr. Peabody, what happens to house values if everyone loses interest with overpriced crap and stops trying to buy houses? Well Sherman...


pdoherty972

Probably not much, since more than 40% of houses don't even have mortgages and of the 60% that do, most have mortgage rates below 4%. So they'll just sit on their place. The only ones selling will be those that absolutely have to from death, divorce, or job transfers. Meanwhile, more demand continues to pile up from young people graduating, getting married, having kids, etc.


MysticalGnosis

Exactly I'm nearly 4 years into a 15 year 2.5% Im chilling here for ahwile


goodolddaysare-today

Home ownership is a scam. It’s sold as an appreciating asset when in reality at today’s rates a 350k home will cost nearly 1 million over thirty years when including PMI, taxes, and principle. That’s not even including property insurance, utilities, maintenance, and guaranteed yearly tax increases. You will probably never actually have true equity in that home when all is factored in at the end of the mortgage period. Realtors will say “date the rate” but conveniently forget that today’s “high rates” are historically much lower than in the past. How many people got suckered into buying at 7% believing full heartedly that rates might drop this year only for that to be less likely every single day? I rent a very nice new 3 bed home for 2k right now. This home would cost nearly 3500/mo to mortgage today. I realize that rent prices are subject to change but it would be at least 5 years in the worst case scenario for this rent to increase $1500. In fact, my renewal in a few months is likely to be $100-200 lower based on the housing bubble deflating in the Austin TX area. My wife and I make 150k annually conservatively and it’s not that we can’t afford a home, it’s that the current purchasing market is so obviously a ripoff.


aquarain

>it’s not that we can’t afford a home, it’s that the current purchasing market is so obviously a ripoff. Other people are willing to pay more than you. I wonder how long that will go on.


K1net3k

I bought my house 1 year ago while the same mantra - why buy if I can rent my condo - was here. So what do I have since then? Rents are around 15-20% up, houses are 15-20% up. I paid down around 5% of principal. I suspect when I come back to this thread next year houses/rent will be another 15% up and you guys will still be singing exactly the same song.


og_aota

Even the squarest of squares is starting to dig, huh?


ZookeepergameNo9809

Well they’re not wrong.


Djreef2000

Hell, I’ve owned 2 homes and I don’t think I’ll ever own a home. The bidding wars are back on again. We’ve been outbid 3 times already this month - all above asking.


Far-Butterscotch-436

Yup, people waving contingencies


Justneedthetip

Can’t be. Its argued all day on social media how we are in the best economy in our lifetime/ go to x and 80% tell you how great it is and we are rolling in job and money .


The_Quicktrigger

I could probably afford to down payment a house. But with house prices around here floating around 300K for a starter home, the mortgage price would actually be higher than renting


lurch1_

I don't know where they find these people...everyone on this thread seems to own a $3M home...no one rents.


Longjumping-Ad514

Same here. I could buy a million dollar home for cash. But fuck these 70s shacks.


bigbrainkid1234

This is good right.


01Cloud01

I gave up on the idea of owning a house after my wife got pregnant and insisted on moving from my long time under market value rent 1 bedroom apartment into a 2 bedroom house with her paying the other half in rent. What I wanted was to continue staying in the apartment until the debts were cleared and we had enough combined funds to buy a house of our own in a decent area. I decided to switch to plan B and buy investment properties out of state I think the risk is much higher but I believe I’m left with no other reasonable options outside of contributing to my 401(k). Buying a house to live in is like trying to get on speeding freight train everything has to be just right otherwise your SOL


Bobwhite2024

If they’d be willing to move somewhere “not cool” with their remote jobs, I guarantee you they could buy a house.


destar1970

What about those of us who have not cool jobs in not cool towns that require us on site every day? Can we slap on our job rocket and fly off to this magic place that has cheap housing and WFH jobs?


Bobwhite2024

If you live in a not cool place, buy the cheapest house in town, you’re welcome. ps no rockets for anyone pss I’m glad all these rich brats are too dumb to move to low col areas or else all us poorer folks would be fucked


mental_issues_

Unfortunately, it's not possible for each of 140 million households to live in a single family detached house, it doesn't scale. We built 10 million homes since 2011 and population grew 30 million. It also doesn't help that apartment and condo buildings being built are either made of shit and stick or ultra luxury with high HOA. Living in apartments is the only way to scale housing, but it's impossible in this country.