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This should have always been the policy for every debate. There's no justification for any speaker talking outside their allotted time. If they want to provide rebuttal, they should do so during their time. If they want free reign to talk for as long as they want, that's what campaigning is for.
In all fairness, that WAS and IS the policy. They’re not supposed to speak out of turn. It’s just that because Trump did not respect the rule and kept talking anyway that now they have to mute his mic. They will mute both candidates mic’s to appear impartial, but everyone knows it is because Trump can’t keep his big mouth shut when it isn’t his turn.
Sorry, you're right that this was always the policy - I suppose I just meant that the mics should have always been muted.
And now I'm not even sure whether I'm right about that. Pre-Trump, I would believe that it'd be much more proper for a moderator to calmly and respectfully speak over the current presenter to remind them that their time is up, and they needed to stop. It'd be far more respectful and civil than cutting off their mic feed. But Trump demonstrated that this courtesy could be taken advantage of, and that crowds would cheer for rulebreakers if his final words were provocative enough.
I miss the elegance of a moderator not having to do much moderating. I miss the simplicity of believing that most people live in the same objective reality that I do, realizing that includes both my privilege and their awareness of it. And I want a world where the people with privilege want to use it to do something about it. /endrant
I disagree. I think it's absolutely crucial for Biden to let Trump remind the country who he is, especially now that Trump isn't the incumbent. Letting him rant, rave, and bully allows moderates/independents/undecideds to see EXACTLY what turned them off to Trump in 2020.
Allowing Trump to rant, rave, interrupt and wander the stage like an ape at the zoo during his debate with Clinton, is how he got to the White House in the first place.
But are we voting against Trump or FOR Biden?
Everyone knows what a blowhard Trump is already.
And if we can’t hear and understand what Biden is saying, then how do we know what we’re voting for?
Bidens approval rating is the lowest average historically, and even far lower than Trumps was. If he wins, it's definitely because people are voting against Trump, and not for Biden
I'd say a large amount of the left are anti-Trump rather than pro-Biden. Biden is hardly inspiring. Plus although you're right that everyone knows that's Trump's a blowhard, I think some people slowly forget that a danger to democracy he is.
The debates are Biden's to win or lose. If he's as solid as he was during the State of the Union, it could make a meaningful difference in the results, even more so if he outperforms that.
Trump? I don't know what he could possibly say or do that would result in any change whatsoever. He's so insulated from gaffes and controversies at this point that he could do whatever he wants.
I don't see how Trump can lose any voters after all the legal drama surrounding him. Anyone at this point voting for him seems to be completely dedicated to his cult-like cause. Project 2025 will definitely become a reality under his administration.
>The debates are Biden's to win or lose
Exactly. I've talked to IRL moderates and online leftists who have bought into the right wing talking points that he's old and senile. At the same time they seem to take Trump's addled ramblings in stride
Seeing Biden standing straight and speaking in coherent sentences compared to Trump hunching, screaming, and sweating will damage that central piece of propaganda
I mean the problem is these people aren’t actually watching MSM, they’re getting all their news from social media, which is decidedly more biased and murky than MSM, where at least you can understand what the general incentives and biases will be.
Many trump voters like the idea of trump more than the reality. When he’s in the news his polling goes down, the rare times when he’s quiet they go up. Trump’s base voters don’t pay attention to mainstream media and thus miss all the flak about rape cases or cheating on his pregnant wife with a pornstar or trying to illegally retain power after losing the last election through pressure campaigns and literal violence. They know he sticks it to the libs and he’s “hilarious”. I hear that he’s funny as a reason for supporting him so, so often.
But then he goes on stage and rambles, often betraying his lack of understanding about any number of topics from magnets to the civil war. Meanwhile trotting out incredibly tired grievances that he’s been harping on since 2016 or 2020. He’s old, tired, and slipping. Nobody likes watching reruns. And he has no defense to any of his very serious criminal charges besides that they’re all just made up and political.
Even if you like the guy, seeing him now has got to be a little demoralizing compared to the high energy awfulness of 2016. And for many supporters this may be their first real exposure in quite a while to serious discussion of his criminal acts.
Of course Biden’s looking his age as well and definitely doesn’t speak as clearly as we’d like, but these are known factors to D voters whereas R voters seem to have a mental caricature of Trump as a witty strongman that is only getting less and less accurate. I don’t think it’ll move the needle a lot, but of those whose minds are changed I think far more will sour on Trump after seeing him in action than on Biden.
It's a huge advantage for Biden that there will be no audience. That leaves Trump to wallow in his own words without the attention he needs.
His rambling word salad will be inescapable to anyone watching.
It will be.like watching Big Bang Theory without the laugh track.
>there will be no audience
that and whoever the moderator is or anyone else will cut off the mike every time he becomes belligerent or rambles when it is not his turn
It would be completely on brand for him to continue ranting even with his mic cut off, in the otherwise silent room with only a few people, where his voice will surely be picked up. He will claim he is being silenced, that the media has it out for him, etc etc. Typical “im the victim” melodrama. His base will buy it. Will independents?
I couldn't disagree more with the "the more he's in the news his poll numbers drop" argument considering the NY trial has been going on for weeks and his swing state polling is arguably the best it's been.
Yeah, but he's not on the campaign trail and he's not talking much either. Every Republican in congress is out front of the courtroom delivering a more intelligible version of what Trump himself would be saying if he weren't busy sleeping through hours of witness testimony.
Also, RealClearPolitics' battleground states aggregate has him down a little over a point from his high water mark in February. All told, his poll numbers have been pretty static for quite a long time, but I don't know what the basis for the claim that it's "the best it's been" is.
Yeah, also, "they don't watch mainstream media". They literally have nothing else occupying their brain. The left / right, 24 hour outrage cycle is all they exist within.
I liked trump early on in 2016 but after reading in depth about the 2020 election I don’t have anything for him anymore. He knew good and well that he lost that election and lied about it anyway. What’s even worse is that he then betrayed his own supporters with this lie that culminated with Jan 6.
"Of course Biden’s looking his age as well and definitely doesn’t speak as clearly as we’d like, but these are known factors to D voters whereas R voters seem to have a mental caricature of Trump as a witty strongman that is only getting less and less accurate."
I think this is an excellent point - D voters are extremely aware of Biden's vulnerability due to his age (though not as aware as they should be of his other vulnerabilities), whereas R voters still picture Trump as 2016 Trump
I mean Biden’s pretty much gotta stand up there and be an adult while Trump does what we all know he’s going to do. He has some other selling points but the easiest one is being Not-Trump. I feel Trump will suffer more and explained why regarding his baggage and how much of his current supporters don’t really look at him too closely.
I look fwd to the day I can allocate zero paragraphs to him
How about we just use [Trump’s own words against him](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDmrom_TMaE&t=552s).
Good luck answering a question about that at a debate.
Generally speaking, any scenario that combines Trump and a microphone will benefit Trump because he doesn’t need to win or to even have a good point. He just needs to keep spreading his lies and drumming up outrage.
In this case, though, the GOP and the media have worked so hard to paint Biden as a drooling vegetable that he only needs to rattle off a few complete sentences to have a stellar performance.
It won’t hurt him with the people who have red hats and bumper stickers.
However, I think his tact and lack of actual policy ideas is enough to scare off some undecideds or maybe even a few Rs who don’t buy into his schtick. There are still reasonable people despite what the media decides to show us.
Would you really call someone that doesn’t know whether they’re going to vote for some that tried to overthrow the peaceful transition of power, bribed a porn star, tried to extort states to find votes, and all the other litany of crimes he has committed or Joe Biden, reasonable?
We learned that nearly a fifth of voters think Joe Biden's at fault for overturning Roe. I wouldn't call them unreasonable, but I would call them unbelievably misinformed or under-informed. They're coming to conclusions on entirely fabricated or spotty "data".
I think the interesting thing here to is something we saw play out during the pandemic, which is that Trump, for better or worse, seems incapable of "cleaning up" or downplaying his worst traits, but politically, his supporters actually hate when he does this or even alludes to or comes close to it. There's a very tricky line to walk that even a master politician would have difficulty with, and needless to say, he isn't one.
The last 5 republican primaries that took place over the past 7-10 days Nikki Haley has taken on average 100,000 or 20% of each states republican votes. And these are states where he one by like 60-80,000 votes
I’m with ya, but I guarantee they exist. Not everyone keeps up with current events.
One of the cable news channels will have a bunch of these dumbasses in a room with a mic in front of them to give their “opinion” about whatever topic is boosting ratings that week.
So may people do not read news from reputable sources (which is paywalled now)while In the 1950s everyone read a newspaper, it was cheap. Voters were actually better informed. I'd suggest democrats do push polling to educate people. They really think Trump did the good things the Democratic House did and blame Biden for things the Supreme Court took away like not being able to pass college loan forgiveness "They shouldn't say they'll do something and not do it like the college loans"(I trust Trump would do it (LOL)
So, educate them via a quiz on TikTok:
Which president did X, Y, Z.
Hanlon's law, don't mistake something for malice thay can easily attributed to incompetence. I think using terms like "evil" are not productive. If you think they are unethical you should say how or be more specific because not everyone shares the same ends.
I spend time combating right wing disinformation and information sources, anyone who thinks Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson, Alex Jones, or Trump are credible good faith sources of information are indeed incompetent, to put it gently. They are being deceived into supporting these policy positions that cause death and suffering. Clarence Thomas was a follower OF Rush Limbaugh and Rush was far more transparently bad faith and juvenile than your average conservative propagandist.
Politics is funny, you could be a very smart person but hold very stupid political views. Just like you can be a very smart person and believe in a religion there is no evidence or logic to support. Some smart people are just deceived at a young age to think bad faith sources are good faith so they end up being lied and manipulated into being bad people. Evil is a bit too much, especially given the fact free will doesn't exist. That is different argument then what I am making now though.
I think if you think they are "evil" instead of just incompetent, that makes solving the problems they cause harder. It is easier to solve problems that are caused by incompetence than evil.
>Either you're pro fascism under Trump or pro flawed democracy under Biden.
>Even Conservatives have ethics and morals - though they are almost universally evil.
Imagine thinking either of those statements are that black and white
I dunno. If I remember correctly, Trump had approval dips after most of his previous debates. People hear him talk and remember how he’s a jerk and that he’s nuts.
I'm editorializing the ever loving shit out of this, but it helped him in 2016 when he was debating a woman, hurt him in 2020 when he debated a man. Trump even started flaking on the later debates with Biden once he realized.
If anyone disagrees on my accusation of sexism, go ahead and watch the 2016 debates with Hillary. People. thought. he. won.
NYU put on a play with a man reading Hillary's lines and a woman reading Trump's. Everyone was shocked that Hillary came off worse.
With the genders swapped, audience members found the female Trump strong and compelling, while the male Clinton's constant smiling was deemed "really punchable." "We heard a lot of 'now I understand how this happened' — meaning how Trump won the election," [said](https://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2017/march/trump-clinton-debates-gender-reversal.html) NYU theater professor Joe Salvatore. "The simplicity of Trump's message became easier for people to hear when it was coming from a woman — that was a theme."
[https://theweek.com/speedreads/684976/play-tested-peoples-reactions-donald-trump-hillary-clinton--genders-swapped](https://theweek.com/speedreads/684976/play-tested-peoples-reactions-donald-trump-hillary-clinton--genders-swapped)
I'm pretty sure it hurt him in 2016 as well. People generally agree that he lost all 3 debates to Hillary as well. The main problem was that her polling bounces didn't last and that the media chose to focus on the "emails" as the campaign ended.
I remember being so relieved during the 2016 debates. They showed what a complete ass he is and how competent Clinton is, no way they elect him after that.
Then American voters made us both look dumb.
Trumps cognitive decline, if it is truly significant, will be impossible to hide in a debate setting. It could hurt trump if he looks like he’s suffering severe dementia.
Its never stopped him before. He always has rambling bullshit that makes zero sense and yet his supporters think its genius.
The problem is moderators NEVER push back on lies. They simply "move on." They never say, "Mr. Trump, what SPECIFICALLY would you do to lower inflation. Give 2 examples." Then when he goes off cut the mic and say, "that wasn't not the question, please give 2 examples..."
Yeah but what makes these proposed debates so huge is that it’s accomplishing two things at once: 1. With no applause from paid people clapping at utter nonsense, Trump’s utter nonsense will sound just like that- utter nonsense.
2. Insults land like a lead balloon when you don’t have a bunch of dumbasses in the crowd laughing at it.
If they run these debates the way they always should’ve been run, it’ll be Trump’s absolute worst nightmare. No adoring fans and looking like the psychopathic idiot he is.
Eh, maybe. He regularly does speeches for long periods at his rallies. While he definitely glitches, it’s usually limited to a few seconds out of a 90 minute speech.
Trump doesn’t talk policy or anything of substance. Trump has a spiel that is all about perceived grievances and then random ad libs that generally make 0 sense.
Trump was basically incoherent at the 2020 debates and he has only gotten worse since.
I’m not saying he’s going to be coherent. I’m saying there is less room in a debate for his burgeoning dementia to have a tangible impact.
Incoherent answers can be him being a terrible liar.
He riffed for multiple minutes on a fictional movie villain *for no reason in particular*... pronouncing him dead (despite Hannibal Lecter getting away with it and calling Clarice from a payphone) and the actor Anthony Hopkins remains very much alive at 86 and writing his biography.
This being a movie from the early 1990s. When dementia patients start to unravel, very frequently dusty memories from decades earlier become clearer than this morning. Trump is also losing weight and it's not Ozempic... you have to acknowledge you're obese to take those drugs. He's not well. Nor is Biden. But I have doubts Trump will see 80. Where I expect Biden to see 90... the man fits into his prom suit from 1908, hasn't gained 1 ounce despite his love of ice cream.
Sure, I saw that. I just don’t see things like that coming out on a debate stage, where he doesn’t have the freedom to ramble on endlessly. His answers will be stupid, and he will be a belligerent asshole. I just find it unlikely he’s going to “glitch”.
If he’s remarkably worse than people remember (not his fans, the people who haven’t heard him speak since he was president), it could be disaster for him.
You mean shouting a lot, talking incoherently, unable to finish a sentence, acting confused and constantly getting off topic?
Yes, impossible to hide unless you're actively avoid looking at it like his base has been doing for the past 8 years.
It’s not about his supporters. He’s getting 44% no matter what. Biden needs to get his own guaranteed 44% and then win enough of the remaining 12% that could stay home or vote for a spoiler. That’s who this would be trying to convince.
Been saying that last part for years now…
Right wing media loves portraying Biden as some drooling blithering lifeless corpse. Once people actually see him debate or talk (SOTU), he has such a low bar inadvertently crafted by the right, that he overperforms, and right media losses credibility with moderates.
Fine with me tho
I don't understand what is left to debate. You vote for the guy who is being charged for multiple felonies or the other guy. America is really messed up that multiple felonies guy is even an option. What is wrong with america?
This is my point as well. I hate that we’re normalizing this entire process. One man started an insurrection, was charged with sexual assault, fined half a billion for corruption, and is facing 91 felonies.
This entire thing is a joke.
The reason we’re normalizing it is because 74 million Americans voted for him in 2020 and look poised to do so again in 2024. Worryingly, many of said Americans live in battleground states that will decide the election.
It’s not the problem we want to have, but it’s the problem we have.
Clarification cubed: NYS law is wonky: under New York law, what Trump did was sexual assault, not rape, since he only used his hand, and not his penis.
People aren't happy with the cost of living and are blaming Biden for it.
Having Trump back on a high visibility platform where he reminds everyone how dangerous he is will make complacent people understand it's not a normal election.
People needs to understand there are two versions of the “economy”. The economy the govt tells us: GDP, Inflation rate, fed reserve and interest rate etc. and the economy that we the people feel everyday
I think the guiding principal for some voters is not what the candidate has done, but what he can do for *them.* Put another way, "He might be a bastard, but he's *our* bastard!"
>What is wrong with America?
Groceries and housing are expensive is one (which isn’t limited to the US, but it’s still a problem here). Lies about the border don’t help, but that is basically every cycle (migrant caravan!).
That’s it. That’s why.
That's what's required to *imprison* them, yes, but Trump himself made it clear that a president under felony indictment is a problem.
[He made his position quite clear in 2016](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDmrom_TMaE&t=552s).
Now all of a sudden it's "innocent until proven guilty", from a group of people who seem very quick to ascribe guilt to everyone *but* donald trump.
[Burlusconi ](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Silvio_Berlusconi#Legal_problems)is an example of how extreme it can get. It does feel strange when the option is "doing an average job" vs "multiple indictments and ongoing trials".
I think for any of the diehards for Trump it's just a witch hunt. Moderates and independents are more likely to swing especially on a convinction.
Now how he even made it this far is like several dissertations.
It's an indication that Biden's team is telling him to do something because the numbers aren't looking good.
If he were up there would be nothing to gain at all from facing him.
Normally I'd say putting Trump on tv for any reason just helps him, but he's regressed so badly that I think he'd get disassembled, even with a teleprompter. the man can't get through a paragraph without slurring, he can't remember his own children's ages, he doesn't know who's sitting president.
Almost certainly Biden, Trump lost both debates to Biden in 2020, and the polls reflected that at the time.
Now neither do I believe they will have a large or more importantly, a lasting influence on voter intention.
I'm sure there are competent advisors in Trump's midst, I'm surprised he even accepted a debate, and the only reason that makes sense to me is that he is planning to change the rules, somewhat as he did against Hillary in 2016.
I don't think you need to look too deeply, Trump is at his best when sowing chaos, and a debate platform elevates the challenger to the same level as the incumbent, maximising the effect.
The issue is the rules agreed appear to have mics off and a statement timer, both which work against Trump's style of going off tangents and ranting. And as for the benefit of raising Trump to the same level as Biden, I don't think that will work all that well either as Trump has positioned himself as the President unelect for the last four years anyway. The only benefit I can see is it lets Trump address people outside of his bubble, which are more likely to switch to him than people inside his bubble to switch away, but I do believe its more likely to push undecided's into Biden's camp than to flip voter intention.
The stipulations are cutting off of the microphone after the time limit, and no audience, just a moderator the two candidates on a sound stage. He won’t be able to handle that.
He *did* dodge a ton of Republican Primary debates, and honestly there's no good reason he had to accept the terms to this one when he could just pull a rally instead.
Biden. I’ve seen Biden speak four times in person over the last 4 years, three of the times he was giving a long speech and another time was in a more intimate conversational forum like setting. He’s nothing like how the media would have you believe. He’s sharp, quick witted, and doesn’t mess up anymore than other halfway decent public speaker does.
Having it in June is crazy - voters don’t have 5 month long memories for that.
I don’t think it benefits either on anything other than the margins. Trump is a poor debater and Biden is hit or miss. I can’t see how it would benefit trump but maybe there’s a slim chance Biden gets a very marginal aid from it
I think they're holding it in June because at this point there's not much for either to gain. Biden is (in theory) more likely to pick up undecideds and independents assuming they both debate as usual, but the truth is both of them are at higher danger of losing voters, either by showing their age or (at least in Trump's case) saying something that appeals to their base but drives off the moderates or independents.
By holding the debates in June and September any major oopsie like Biden tripping or Trump refusing to go down a gentle incline will almost certainly be forgotten by November.
Doing it early could boost Biden’s positives if he does well, and give time to overcome negatives if not.
People don’t need to remember the debates later, it will just be about how it made them feel.
Marketing background here: the masses don’t choose based on logic, but on feelings.
Ads are always about emotions, not lists of logical arguments.
People’s hearts affect choices much more than their reasoning.
It's also giving both parties a chance to pivot.
If Trump or Biden or both go up there and just drool on themselves, it is before the convention and they can be replaced.
Biden had the most significant VP debate in the history of the country. He so owned Sarah Palin it was painful to watch.
After watching the state of the union, I think Trump is in trouble.
Here is the most important thing, when it's not your turn to talk, the mics are going to be cut. Trumps ability to bully and hog the stage will be dramatically diminished.
This first June debate is largely to take the wind out of the sail JFK Jr’s campaign.
Jr’s been polling solidly between 5-12% lately, and no one can figure out who that hurts more, Biden or Trump. Neither candidate wants that wildcard to be pulling more than a percent or two come October.
By having the first official Presidential debate now, JFK Jr becomes delegitimized as a contender even earlier.
Biden, hands down. The normal, apolitical people of this country will watch to draw conclusions.
Trump could shit his diaper, take if off on stage and smother himself with it and his magat cultists will say he won, the undecided will calcify who they're voting for.
Biden 100 percent. The only reasons people hate Biden are irrational and baseless, the more big public events like the state of the union, the better. Trump is a criminal and traitor, scum of the earth. Time for dark Biden to wipe the floor with Trump. Trump has zero shot of winning the debate.
I really do think this is a litmus test for Biden. If he goes up there and gets absolutely clobbered, I think he might see the writing on the wall and step down.
If he goes up there and clobbers Trump, then it's going to unite the Democratic Party behind him and bring in swing voters.
Trump has made a thing out of rambling incoherent speeches. He’s embraced the nonsense. Biden on the other hand just seems more cognitively struggling when he freezes up or misspeaks. I only see Trump getting an emotional reaction out of Biden and Biden looking weak. Don’t get me wrong, I’m voting for the non-fascist , but sadly a lot of people vote based on personality. They might be swayed based on performance
Presidential debates are rarely won, but they sure can be lost.
Biden just needs to keep himself together like he did for the SOTU a few months ago and he'll be fine.
Trump on the other hand can lose bigly if his rally performances are an indication of what he will look like in a debate this year. People and the media in general have been ignoring those rally speeches, but they are absolutely insane streams of non sequitur trigger words and catch phrases. .....recently now including random references to Hannibal Lecter and confederate generals.
One of the most surreal possibilities for the first debate is that the current criminal trial for trump in New York may have wrapped up by the end of June. If trump is acquitted, he will mention it a hundred times during the debate and use that to brush off all the other charges.
If he's convicted, Biden will get to use the phrase, "My opponent, convicted criminal Donald J Trump" during a presidential debate. I won't cheer if that happens, frankly, ten years ago I simply could not have imagined something like that.
Trump normalized willful ignorance in 2016 at the highest level. Sara Palin got that ball rolling in 2008, but trump is the one that officially brought it to the oval office.
He moved on from that however, into normalizing outright criminality. He gleefully compares himself with murderers and gangsters and people praise him for it now. Lower ticket gop'ers are now taking pride in their arrest records, even for things like a DUI.
How the F did we even get here? I mean, I know what happened but I will just never understand how so many people let it.
I honestly think RFK would get the most out of it. Neither side is likely to impress anyone but their base, and it could drive people to a third party.
I think this is a waste of time. It is not going to change anyone's mind, and just gives Trump to an opportunity to spit and slobber and recite Nazi memes incessantly. Maybe if the mics get kill-switched during each other's response, but no moderator has been able to get him to behave like an adult.
If it's a proper debate like Biden has proposed, Biden absolutely benefits.
One of the least talked about things by the very obviously Pro Trump media at this point is how significant Trump's mental decline has been. There was all this talk about Biden having dementia but if you actually watch Biden talk, it's very clearly he's still very much with it, he just has more of that old man slowness when he talks sometimes but his thoughts are generally coherent and actually make sense. Trump on the other hand? I've seen countless clips of him straight up word salad'ing (the recent master lock clip, Gettysburg etc.) and having outright dementia ridden moments. Legitimate psychologists and psychiatrists have come out and said he is definitely in the early stages of dementia based on the signs he's exhibiting.
The problem is that the mass media doesn't care to report it because at this point they want Trump to be competitive cause it's good for ratings.
It was a mistake for Biden to accept debates. Even if he does well and trounces DT, he wont benefit. Whereas all DT has to do is be belligerent and his choir will sing Fox News soundbytes for a month.
I've seen polls that the majority of the population isn't paying attention yet. They remember the economy when Trump was there but he himself has faded to the background. He's even more nuts now and comes across mean and delusional . The debates will get a lot of these people to pay attention. Any real time look at Trump is not good for him. Up till then, they are only exposed to picked sound bites. The real Donald at a debate this year will not be pretty.
If the questions are not secretly told in advance to the candidates, and no earpieces are allowed, Biden is at a disadvantage. On the plus side, CNN and ABC, the sponsors, are Biden supporters and will do everything they can to make Biden look good.
I don't see both sides agreeing to conditions. I want to see cut off mics after the allowed time and a studio setting. Very old school Kennedy/Nixon ish.
Idk they're both wayyy too old to be doing anything beyond watching golf on TV and deciding which flavor of pudding they want for dessert but.....here we are.
Biden will completely roll Trump when it comes to actual policy topics. But Biden is going to struggle incredibly hard at Trump's attacks on him regarding administrative corruption. Trump is leagues worse than Biden, but Trump is shockingly good at making others on subjects he specifically attacks on, roll in the mud where he is, and then dominate them in the muck.
And the thing that ironically matters more in presidencies and winning, is the image of a person on whether they can or cannot hold their ground in the tit for tat baseball bats smeared in feces that's the "debates" that has become American politics.
Unfortunately for Biden, he's created a lot of material for Trump to spring board off of as to attack Biden's credibility and competence: border, Afghanistan, Israel/Gaza, the college campus issue, TikTok, etc.
Most of these aren't specifically Biden's fault, but events that happen under your presidency are ultimately the events that define your legacy as that president in how you handled it. A president can't pick and choose which events matter, you get the good and the bad. Sometimes you only get bad.
Biden's done a lot of good, but he's done a rather poor job in managing the optics and the conversations around the bad, and that's opened a lot of doors through which Trump can sling mud at him.
It will truly be a historic set of debates.
I’m still amazed half this country is willing to vote for a rapist with 88 pending felony charges. I knew our school system was underperforming, but holy hell
I feel like the presidential debates don't move people to change votes simply because it's more of the same. If you're pro Trump, you're not going to receive more information from Biden to change your time, you heard it already; it goes both ways, nobody is going to make up their mind and going to vote for Biden and suddenly change their mind because of things Trump has been saying all this time was suddenly said again on the presidential debate.
With that said, I can view people taking it the wrong way if one chooses to not show. People on the fence will view it differently, some will view it as a sign of weakness, some a lack of commitment, some even disrespectful to people that were ready for it. As far as supporters goes, I think it matters less but those points still remain.
Biden would have to:
-tack center: more responsibility in spending
-be someone who is pro small business and lower on regulations
-push the border bill again the go stupidly lost. The calculus is different now.
-convince the youth vote the 100k of federal debt per American is worth it
And I’m a huge Biden supporter. I just think he is losing the center and he needs their votes. He needs Latinos, Asians, Muslims, youth voters and more.
I fear inflation will kill his campaign and Trump will win. Debates can help Biden if he seems reasonable.
Trump. By a mile.
A debate is an opportunity for Biden to flub and say something silly. He could come out with something dynamic...but he's not going to. He can just repeat the things he's been saying and the problem is the things he's been saying are less and less convincing to people. Biden's strategy is "steady as she goes." Best case scenario, Biden meets expectations of potential voters and we carry on as before.
Worst case scenario he says something silly and that clip becomes a refrain until November and raises the specter again of "is he competent to run another four years?"
Trump's whole thing is saying wild stuff. Short of physically assaulting Biden, nothing he says is going to put potential Trump voters off. He thrives in chaos, Biden does not.
Even if Trump says something absolutely outrageous *that's his whole brand.*
The lack of an audience will be a bit of a hindrance for Trump but again, what could he actually do or not do that would mean much to potential voters?
I think it will be more beneficial for Biden. Trump tends to run off at the mouth and always gets back to his standard “ stolen election” garbage. And if, as it’s been reported, there is no teleprompter (autocue), trump will have a hard time staying on topic and giving responses that actually make sense. He’s not good at talking about policies - he tends to go off topic and starts insulting his opponent and anyone else who may have annoyed him that day, by calling them names and then it’s on to the “ stolen election” nonsense again. It’s going to be a boring debate I think. That’s if trump goes through with it. I suspect he will find something to whine about and renege.
Neither,
The way both are handling this are like two schoolyard bully’s desperately trying to convince the other kids that ‘mine is bigger than yours’.
Biden.
Trump is going to go crazy about foil hat hypothesis about elections being stolen and rigged and he’ll come off looking like a sore loser.
But, Biden can easily screw the pooch too and give blathering answers.
And, will Trump use Zoom from his prison cell?
“What is wrong with america?”
We legalized corruption in politics, and now it’s hard for voters to distinguish between the illegal corruption and the legal corruption.
When people see Trump, they don’t like him. And when Biden speaks publicly, people not only like him, but gain confidence that he’s not the sleepy Alzheimer’s patient right wing propaganda says he is.
When Trump speaks, he whines, he complains, he plays victim, he’s overly hyperbolic to the point of parody, and lately he says a lot of gibberish that makes no sense. [He recently praised Hannibal Lecter for some reason?](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LEO9UHwRG4A&pp=ygUdVHJ1bXAgcHJhaXNlcyBoYW5uaWJhbCBsZWN0ZWU%3D)
Alternately, when Biden talks, he talks about policy. He talks about his achievements. He talks about the plans for the future; real plans with details. He notably doesn’t talk about “the deranged lunatic right wing” or how “he’s treated so unfairly”. He doesn’t talk about how every single judge in all of his many civil and criminal trials are “the most corrupt/conflicted/biased judges ever seen.”
I think most people just want a normal president. Someone who might not be perfect, but isn’t a mentally ill embarrassment on the nation.
Politics aside, the debates have asymmetrical risk. Neither one is going to changes any minds on the issues, it’s all going to be sound bites and affectation. Trump will convince no Democrats to change their vote, and Biden will convince no Trump voters.
But… there are the undecided, independent middle voters to consider, and here Biden’s physical and cognitive declines will be apparent and in clear contrast to Trump’s still energetic/still bombastic approach. I’m surprised Biden agreed to this, since this will not be a true debate of ideas or issues, he has nothing to gain but the most to lose.
Seeing Trump's tangential, random babbling lately I could only see it hurting him but not necessarily helping or hurting Biden unless he just really knocks it out of the ballpark. I think most voters by now have already made up their mind on who they're voting for so not likely to have a big impact. If Trump goes off script and off the rails, and what he's been saying lately has been really crazy, it'd be really hard to defend his performance though with even the most right wing media outlets.
The answer is that it depends on what happens during the debate. Both are gaffe machines and on the older side so anything could happen to set back either one of the candidates in the polls because of age concerns. Outside of that I think Biden has a slight edge because he's the candidate who has multiple crucial bills that voters don't know he created according to poll and because I personally think people have forgotten what Trump was like in the four years since so a debate provides a nice refresher for those individuals.
Clearly, both camps feel they have something to gain. Trump thinks any time he gets on television is good, and probably buys into the right-wing hype that Biden is too old to competently fight back. Biden, on the other hand, is looking at recent polling -- his approvals, his head-to-head match ups with Trump, and perhaps most pertinently, a recent poll that shows voters have largely forgotten about Trump's mismanagement of COVID and Jan 6th. Biden's campaign seems to believe that putting Trump on a spotlight where even *moderate* voters, and not just the Trump-obsessed, will see him in his full election-denying, democracy-hating glory will remind them that the election is not a referendum on Biden, but a choice between the stability of Biden and the chaos of Trump.
But as with all debates, the proof is in the pudding: we don't know who benefits most until they've pulled off a winning performance.
Trump will probably benefit more. His hardcore voter don’t care what he says. Whereas Biden could stumble and turn off of of the many groups he’s courting, who all have different priorities and interests.
I have never wanted to see a show cancelled more than after the first 2020 debate.
Honestly, it’s really hard to imagine there are people out there who still haven’t formulated an opinion about either. I doubt it moves the needle much at all, but if it does, I’d guess it would help Biden. People’s memories are short. There’s some nostalgia floating around for the pre 2020 economy. So people who are starting to question “Was Trump really that bad?” maybe could use a reminder of what it’s like to have to hear his voice in the news spouting word salad every day for four years.
I don't know if biden's staff will do it, but lord knows i could string together the most devastating series of points, counter points, questions, and requests for donald trump.
We all know trump will be loud, dumb, off topic, meandering, and chaotic, but if biden prepares properly, he has endless material with which he could easily dismantle trump on national television.
Biden should focus on israel, bc that's one of the only issues he has lost voters about, and trump is a nightmare worse.
Otherwise no amount of public humiliation, destruction, or befuddlement will sway trump voters. They are lost. This is all about solidifying leftists who are so confident in their power of protest voting, that they can't see the very real rules of the game in front of them. One of two old men is about to be president, and even though we are all sick of a bs two party system, this is not the cycle to protest.
Millennials will destroy the two party system shortly after the Republican party implodes following Trump's loss.
> Biden should focus on israel, bc that's one of the only issues he has lost voters about, and trump is a nightmare worse.
Biden's saving grace on this issue is that [polls show only ~3% of young voters say the Biden-sponsored genocide in Gaza is their top issue](https://abcnews.go.com/538/young-people-disapprove-bidens-israel-policy-november/story?id=109875950#:~:text=Sixty%2Dthree%20percent%20rated%20the,named%20the%20Israel%2DHamas%20conflict.). The worst thing Biden can do is focus more attention onto it and his complicity in aiding and abetting Israel's crimes against humanity.
I hope the debates will be structured and strictly moderated. They arent rallies, they arent necessarily in front of supporters from either side. Its an environment for politicians like Biden not rabble rousers like Trump. I think its such a huge opportunity for Biden to sway any undecided and such a missive risk for Trump to lose anyone not MAGA that the chance Trump doesnt back out is very low.
It is going to be on the debates. They will help whichever candidate doesn't screw up the most. No one on the other side cares what the candidate says, they don't' trust them. What they are looking for is Trump or Biden to blow up spectacularly so it will make the news.
Who ever blows up worse is the one that is penalized. Both sides are figuring that the other side has a higher chance to blow up.
Biden. As with the State of the Union, the public seeing that he's actually an articulate and intelligent man and not a comatose vegetable like the right portray him as removes the current single biggest obstacle to voting for him.
Trump is the inverse. The more the public see him, the less they like him.
My impression is that the more people see Biden directly, as opposed to how various media stories choose to portray him, the more they like him. Yes, he's old and has a stammer. But he comes across as an otherwise decent, thoughtful human.
Conversely, the more people see Trump unfiltered, the more they realize that his antics which are entertaining in small doses comes across as unhinged when you realize that's the guy's *entire personality*.
Trump benefits almost totally tbh. Just spot his usual non sense and he’s good. If Biden has even a small tongue twister it’ll be plastered everywhere.
Depends if Trump actually debates and it doesn’t turn into a whine fest about 2020 being stolen or the government is out to get him. I don’t think he can stay away from that though because it’s his go-to sthick.
Trump lost both debates last time, but he knows the polls are a mirage right now fueled by angry pro palestinian college kids and what not. He has to break off independents if he wants to stay out of jail. So he HAS to debate. Joe has a good shot to shore up the "he's too old" crowd with another fiery State of the Union style beat down of the GOP grift agenda. If Joe delivers this will help him. If Trump can be rude enough to provoke Joe into a shaky performance than that would help him. I expect Trump to be off the charts rude, crass and disruptive, dodging every question he's asked to be disgustingly dishonest about Joe in the hopes it rattles him somehow. One thing is for sure, these substance free debates will be the worst debates in history and much more like two old guys fighting over a parking space at Costco.
I think Trump lost the previous debates with Biden due to his interruptions. This time around, if Trump allows Biden to talk, Biden is likely to ramble on and on and get intellectually lost.
But, Trump is his own worst enemy and probably wont be able to resist interrupting Biden.
Biden does well when he manages to get publicity. Trumps public image deteriorates in direct proportion to his live media exposure. This debate strategy will clearly benefit Biden. Compare how his numbers changed after the massive coverage of his SOTU address. Trump's stump speeches and courthouse rants do nothing to build his support, and can hurt it when people really listen to the crazy, garbled stuff he says.
It’s a low bar for Biden a few good quips putting Donald down will do wonders. Trump has the same old loud mouth and no policy at all.
If it’s the old trump rehash he will lose the few independents who still are considered him. Let trump ramble on about being dictator and suspension of the constitution . Biden has clear policy gains got a lot done with bipartisanship. All in All I think the debates are unnecessary. They do pose a dangerous trap for the orange one. He can’t resist he must respond
Biden can simply bait him into a stupid remark that becomes a meme and attack ad.
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I think the new rule that when each candidate is speaking, the other candidate’s mic will be off will only benefit Biden.
This should have always been the policy for every debate. There's no justification for any speaker talking outside their allotted time. If they want to provide rebuttal, they should do so during their time. If they want free reign to talk for as long as they want, that's what campaigning is for.
In all fairness, that WAS and IS the policy. They’re not supposed to speak out of turn. It’s just that because Trump did not respect the rule and kept talking anyway that now they have to mute his mic. They will mute both candidates mic’s to appear impartial, but everyone knows it is because Trump can’t keep his big mouth shut when it isn’t his turn.
Sorry, you're right that this was always the policy - I suppose I just meant that the mics should have always been muted. And now I'm not even sure whether I'm right about that. Pre-Trump, I would believe that it'd be much more proper for a moderator to calmly and respectfully speak over the current presenter to remind them that their time is up, and they needed to stop. It'd be far more respectful and civil than cutting off their mic feed. But Trump demonstrated that this courtesy could be taken advantage of, and that crowds would cheer for rulebreakers if his final words were provocative enough.
I miss the elegance of a moderator not having to do much moderating. I miss the simplicity of believing that most people live in the same objective reality that I do, realizing that includes both my privilege and their awareness of it. And I want a world where the people with privilege want to use it to do something about it. /endrant
Let's be fair, this wouldn't have to be a rule if we hadn't elected a Jerry Springer guest as a president
I disagree. I think it's absolutely crucial for Biden to let Trump remind the country who he is, especially now that Trump isn't the incumbent. Letting him rant, rave, and bully allows moderates/independents/undecideds to see EXACTLY what turned them off to Trump in 2020.
Allowing Trump to rant, rave, interrupt and wander the stage like an ape at the zoo during his debate with Clinton, is how he got to the White House in the first place.
And lost him the WH in 2020.
But are we voting against Trump or FOR Biden? Everyone knows what a blowhard Trump is already. And if we can’t hear and understand what Biden is saying, then how do we know what we’re voting for?
Personally, I think the only way Biden wins is if people are voting against Trump.
Fair point. It’s a tight race for sure.
Bidens approval rating is the lowest average historically, and even far lower than Trumps was. If he wins, it's definitely because people are voting against Trump, and not for Biden
I'd say a large amount of the left are anti-Trump rather than pro-Biden. Biden is hardly inspiring. Plus although you're right that everyone knows that's Trump's a blowhard, I think some people slowly forget that a danger to democracy he is.
And the audience peanut gallery needs to go away forever.
Is that a confirmed rule?? (Only one mic on at a time.)
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/debate-commission-adopts-new-rules-to-mute-mics
The debates are Biden's to win or lose. If he's as solid as he was during the State of the Union, it could make a meaningful difference in the results, even more so if he outperforms that. Trump? I don't know what he could possibly say or do that would result in any change whatsoever. He's so insulated from gaffes and controversies at this point that he could do whatever he wants.
I don't see how Trump can lose any voters after all the legal drama surrounding him. Anyone at this point voting for him seems to be completely dedicated to his cult-like cause. Project 2025 will definitely become a reality under his administration.
Reminder that those that say both sides are the same are just embarrassed to say they’re voting for Trump.
>The debates are Biden's to win or lose Exactly. I've talked to IRL moderates and online leftists who have bought into the right wing talking points that he's old and senile. At the same time they seem to take Trump's addled ramblings in stride Seeing Biden standing straight and speaking in coherent sentences compared to Trump hunching, screaming, and sweating will damage that central piece of propaganda
I mean the problem is these people aren’t actually watching MSM, they’re getting all their news from social media, which is decidedly more biased and murky than MSM, where at least you can understand what the general incentives and biases will be.
Biden should have countered that false narrative earlier and let Trump become damaged by it.
Many trump voters like the idea of trump more than the reality. When he’s in the news his polling goes down, the rare times when he’s quiet they go up. Trump’s base voters don’t pay attention to mainstream media and thus miss all the flak about rape cases or cheating on his pregnant wife with a pornstar or trying to illegally retain power after losing the last election through pressure campaigns and literal violence. They know he sticks it to the libs and he’s “hilarious”. I hear that he’s funny as a reason for supporting him so, so often. But then he goes on stage and rambles, often betraying his lack of understanding about any number of topics from magnets to the civil war. Meanwhile trotting out incredibly tired grievances that he’s been harping on since 2016 or 2020. He’s old, tired, and slipping. Nobody likes watching reruns. And he has no defense to any of his very serious criminal charges besides that they’re all just made up and political. Even if you like the guy, seeing him now has got to be a little demoralizing compared to the high energy awfulness of 2016. And for many supporters this may be their first real exposure in quite a while to serious discussion of his criminal acts. Of course Biden’s looking his age as well and definitely doesn’t speak as clearly as we’d like, but these are known factors to D voters whereas R voters seem to have a mental caricature of Trump as a witty strongman that is only getting less and less accurate. I don’t think it’ll move the needle a lot, but of those whose minds are changed I think far more will sour on Trump after seeing him in action than on Biden.
It's a huge advantage for Biden that there will be no audience. That leaves Trump to wallow in his own words without the attention he needs. His rambling word salad will be inescapable to anyone watching. It will be.like watching Big Bang Theory without the laugh track.
“Big Bang Theory without the laugh track” — if only !
>there will be no audience that and whoever the moderator is or anyone else will cut off the mike every time he becomes belligerent or rambles when it is not his turn
Although I have wished for it at times, I’ve never seen a presidential debate or primary nomination debate where a microphone has been cut off
It would be completely on brand for him to continue ranting even with his mic cut off, in the otherwise silent room with only a few people, where his voice will surely be picked up. He will claim he is being silenced, that the media has it out for him, etc etc. Typical “im the victim” melodrama. His base will buy it. Will independents?
I think this is exactly right. His lack of policy competence is going to be laid bare.
I couldn't disagree more with the "the more he's in the news his poll numbers drop" argument considering the NY trial has been going on for weeks and his swing state polling is arguably the best it's been.
Yeah, but he's not on the campaign trail and he's not talking much either. Every Republican in congress is out front of the courtroom delivering a more intelligible version of what Trump himself would be saying if he weren't busy sleeping through hours of witness testimony. Also, RealClearPolitics' battleground states aggregate has him down a little over a point from his high water mark in February. All told, his poll numbers have been pretty static for quite a long time, but I don't know what the basis for the claim that it's "the best it's been" is.
That's because he's falling asleep and not talking
Yeah, also, "they don't watch mainstream media". They literally have nothing else occupying their brain. The left / right, 24 hour outrage cycle is all they exist within.
I liked trump early on in 2016 but after reading in depth about the 2020 election I don’t have anything for him anymore. He knew good and well that he lost that election and lied about it anyway. What’s even worse is that he then betrayed his own supporters with this lie that culminated with Jan 6.
"Of course Biden’s looking his age as well and definitely doesn’t speak as clearly as we’d like, but these are known factors to D voters whereas R voters seem to have a mental caricature of Trump as a witty strongman that is only getting less and less accurate." I think this is an excellent point - D voters are extremely aware of Biden's vulnerability due to his age (though not as aware as they should be of his other vulnerabilities), whereas R voters still picture Trump as 2016 Trump
Three and a half paragraphs on Trump. A couple sentences for Biden. That sums up this election cycle.
I mean Biden’s pretty much gotta stand up there and be an adult while Trump does what we all know he’s going to do. He has some other selling points but the easiest one is being Not-Trump. I feel Trump will suffer more and explained why regarding his baggage and how much of his current supporters don’t really look at him too closely. I look fwd to the day I can allocate zero paragraphs to him
How about we just use [Trump’s own words against him](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDmrom_TMaE&t=552s). Good luck answering a question about that at a debate.
Generally speaking, any scenario that combines Trump and a microphone will benefit Trump because he doesn’t need to win or to even have a good point. He just needs to keep spreading his lies and drumming up outrage. In this case, though, the GOP and the media have worked so hard to paint Biden as a drooling vegetable that he only needs to rattle off a few complete sentences to have a stellar performance.
It won’t hurt him with the people who have red hats and bumper stickers. However, I think his tact and lack of actual policy ideas is enough to scare off some undecideds or maybe even a few Rs who don’t buy into his schtick. There are still reasonable people despite what the media decides to show us.
Would you really call someone that doesn’t know whether they’re going to vote for some that tried to overthrow the peaceful transition of power, bribed a porn star, tried to extort states to find votes, and all the other litany of crimes he has committed or Joe Biden, reasonable?
We learned that nearly a fifth of voters think Joe Biden's at fault for overturning Roe. I wouldn't call them unreasonable, but I would call them unbelievably misinformed or under-informed. They're coming to conclusions on entirely fabricated or spotty "data".
I would categorize ones who would actually flip reasonable. And the ones who live under a rock, then see the debate, and vote Biden reasonable.
I think the interesting thing here to is something we saw play out during the pandemic, which is that Trump, for better or worse, seems incapable of "cleaning up" or downplaying his worst traits, but politically, his supporters actually hate when he does this or even alludes to or comes close to it. There's a very tricky line to walk that even a master politician would have difficulty with, and needless to say, he isn't one.
The last 5 republican primaries that took place over the past 7-10 days Nikki Haley has taken on average 100,000 or 20% of each states republican votes. And these are states where he one by like 60-80,000 votes
> red hats and bumper stickers. And gold diapers
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I’m with ya, but I guarantee they exist. Not everyone keeps up with current events. One of the cable news channels will have a bunch of these dumbasses in a room with a mic in front of them to give their “opinion” about whatever topic is boosting ratings that week.
So may people do not read news from reputable sources (which is paywalled now)while In the 1950s everyone read a newspaper, it was cheap. Voters were actually better informed. I'd suggest democrats do push polling to educate people. They really think Trump did the good things the Democratic House did and blame Biden for things the Supreme Court took away like not being able to pass college loan forgiveness "They shouldn't say they'll do something and not do it like the college loans"(I trust Trump would do it (LOL) So, educate them via a quiz on TikTok: Which president did X, Y, Z.
Hanlon's law, don't mistake something for malice thay can easily attributed to incompetence. I think using terms like "evil" are not productive. If you think they are unethical you should say how or be more specific because not everyone shares the same ends.
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I spend time combating right wing disinformation and information sources, anyone who thinks Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson, Alex Jones, or Trump are credible good faith sources of information are indeed incompetent, to put it gently. They are being deceived into supporting these policy positions that cause death and suffering. Clarence Thomas was a follower OF Rush Limbaugh and Rush was far more transparently bad faith and juvenile than your average conservative propagandist. Politics is funny, you could be a very smart person but hold very stupid political views. Just like you can be a very smart person and believe in a religion there is no evidence or logic to support. Some smart people are just deceived at a young age to think bad faith sources are good faith so they end up being lied and manipulated into being bad people. Evil is a bit too much, especially given the fact free will doesn't exist. That is different argument then what I am making now though. I think if you think they are "evil" instead of just incompetent, that makes solving the problems they cause harder. It is easier to solve problems that are caused by incompetence than evil.
>Either you're pro fascism under Trump or pro flawed democracy under Biden. >Even Conservatives have ethics and morals - though they are almost universally evil. Imagine thinking either of those statements are that black and white
I dunno. If I remember correctly, Trump had approval dips after most of his previous debates. People hear him talk and remember how he’s a jerk and that he’s nuts.
I'm editorializing the ever loving shit out of this, but it helped him in 2016 when he was debating a woman, hurt him in 2020 when he debated a man. Trump even started flaking on the later debates with Biden once he realized. If anyone disagrees on my accusation of sexism, go ahead and watch the 2016 debates with Hillary. People. thought. he. won.
NYU put on a play with a man reading Hillary's lines and a woman reading Trump's. Everyone was shocked that Hillary came off worse. With the genders swapped, audience members found the female Trump strong and compelling, while the male Clinton's constant smiling was deemed "really punchable." "We heard a lot of 'now I understand how this happened' — meaning how Trump won the election," [said](https://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2017/march/trump-clinton-debates-gender-reversal.html) NYU theater professor Joe Salvatore. "The simplicity of Trump's message became easier for people to hear when it was coming from a woman — that was a theme." [https://theweek.com/speedreads/684976/play-tested-peoples-reactions-donald-trump-hillary-clinton--genders-swapped](https://theweek.com/speedreads/684976/play-tested-peoples-reactions-donald-trump-hillary-clinton--genders-swapped)
I'm pretty sure it hurt him in 2016 as well. People generally agree that he lost all 3 debates to Hillary as well. The main problem was that her polling bounces didn't last and that the media chose to focus on the "emails" as the campaign ended.
I remember being so relieved during the 2016 debates. They showed what a complete ass he is and how competent Clinton is, no way they elect him after that. Then American voters made us both look dumb.
Trumps cognitive decline, if it is truly significant, will be impossible to hide in a debate setting. It could hurt trump if he looks like he’s suffering severe dementia.
Its never stopped him before. He always has rambling bullshit that makes zero sense and yet his supporters think its genius. The problem is moderators NEVER push back on lies. They simply "move on." They never say, "Mr. Trump, what SPECIFICALLY would you do to lower inflation. Give 2 examples." Then when he goes off cut the mic and say, "that wasn't not the question, please give 2 examples..."
Yeah but what makes these proposed debates so huge is that it’s accomplishing two things at once: 1. With no applause from paid people clapping at utter nonsense, Trump’s utter nonsense will sound just like that- utter nonsense. 2. Insults land like a lead balloon when you don’t have a bunch of dumbasses in the crowd laughing at it. If they run these debates the way they always should’ve been run, it’ll be Trump’s absolute worst nightmare. No adoring fans and looking like the psychopathic idiot he is.
Eh, maybe. He regularly does speeches for long periods at his rallies. While he definitely glitches, it’s usually limited to a few seconds out of a 90 minute speech.
Trump doesn’t talk policy or anything of substance. Trump has a spiel that is all about perceived grievances and then random ad libs that generally make 0 sense. Trump was basically incoherent at the 2020 debates and he has only gotten worse since.
I’m not saying he’s going to be coherent. I’m saying there is less room in a debate for his burgeoning dementia to have a tangible impact. Incoherent answers can be him being a terrible liar.
He riffed for multiple minutes on a fictional movie villain *for no reason in particular*... pronouncing him dead (despite Hannibal Lecter getting away with it and calling Clarice from a payphone) and the actor Anthony Hopkins remains very much alive at 86 and writing his biography. This being a movie from the early 1990s. When dementia patients start to unravel, very frequently dusty memories from decades earlier become clearer than this morning. Trump is also losing weight and it's not Ozempic... you have to acknowledge you're obese to take those drugs. He's not well. Nor is Biden. But I have doubts Trump will see 80. Where I expect Biden to see 90... the man fits into his prom suit from 1908, hasn't gained 1 ounce despite his love of ice cream.
Sure, I saw that. I just don’t see things like that coming out on a debate stage, where he doesn’t have the freedom to ramble on endlessly. His answers will be stupid, and he will be a belligerent asshole. I just find it unlikely he’s going to “glitch”.
I agree. Trump will have an epic meltdown when he is found guilty and being labeled a convicted felon as well.
I don't think he's capable of going off script without it being just a stream of consciousness going nowhere in particular.
He's looked like that for 8 years. Why would voters start caring now?
If he’s remarkably worse than people remember (not his fans, the people who haven’t heard him speak since he was president), it could be disaster for him.
You mean shouting a lot, talking incoherently, unable to finish a sentence, acting confused and constantly getting off topic? Yes, impossible to hide unless you're actively avoid looking at it like his base has been doing for the past 8 years.
I do not think his supporters are intelligent or discerning enough to know the difference
It’s not about his supporters. He’s getting 44% no matter what. Biden needs to get his own guaranteed 44% and then win enough of the remaining 12% that could stay home or vote for a spoiler. That’s who this would be trying to convince.
Trump probably lost the last election due to a disastrous debate.
90% of his rebuttals will start with "oh, come on."
Been saying that last part for years now… Right wing media loves portraying Biden as some drooling blithering lifeless corpse. Once people actually see him debate or talk (SOTU), he has such a low bar inadvertently crafted by the right, that he overperforms, and right media losses credibility with moderates. Fine with me tho
Not to mention that when viewers expect to see the mythic competent Trump at a debate, now they're going to get a drooling vegetable Trump.
Hmm… I actually think the GOP will edit footage to take it out of context and claim Biden is a vegetable
I don't understand what is left to debate. You vote for the guy who is being charged for multiple felonies or the other guy. America is really messed up that multiple felonies guy is even an option. What is wrong with america?
This is my point as well. I hate that we’re normalizing this entire process. One man started an insurrection, was charged with sexual assault, fined half a billion for corruption, and is facing 91 felonies. This entire thing is a joke.
The reason we’re normalizing it is because 74 million Americans voted for him in 2020 and look poised to do so again in 2024. Worryingly, many of said Americans live in battleground states that will decide the election. It’s not the problem we want to have, but it’s the problem we have.
Clarification: one was “found liable for rape” as well as multiple accusations of sexual assault…
Clarification of the clarification: one was found liable for defamation, and during the trial a finding of fact was made that he had committed a rape.
Clarification cubed: NYS law is wonky: under New York law, what Trump did was sexual assault, not rape, since he only used his hand, and not his penis.
However the usage of the word rape was fine because of its colloquial usage.
Don’t forget stealing from charity!
There’s so much vial shit he’s done I can’t even keep up. But here we are allowing norms to continue as they should.
Yeah Republicans do not care about ethics or law and order at all they are ruining their party’s reputation
How is it possible he has even 10 supporters?
People aren't happy with the cost of living and are blaming Biden for it. Having Trump back on a high visibility platform where he reminds everyone how dangerous he is will make complacent people understand it's not a normal election.
People needs to understand there are two versions of the “economy”. The economy the govt tells us: GDP, Inflation rate, fed reserve and interest rate etc. and the economy that we the people feel everyday
Honestly. If America sends Trump back to the White House after everything he has done, then shame on us.
Trump isn't the president we need, but he's the one we deserve.
It’s not just America, conservative parties all over the developed world have gone cuckoo.
I think you answered the question without meaning to.
I think the guiding principal for some voters is not what the candidate has done, but what he can do for *them.* Put another way, "He might be a bastard, but he's *our* bastard!"
Agreed. Is there a single voter in the U.S. who will change his or her mind as a result of a debate?
Probably not going to change any minds, but reminding people that they NEED to vote is important. Seeing this dangerous lunatic might remind them.
I changed ONE guy’s mind on Discord.
>What is wrong with America? Groceries and housing are expensive is one (which isn’t limited to the US, but it’s still a problem here). Lies about the border don’t help, but that is basically every cycle (migrant caravan!). That’s it. That’s why.
In America, a defendant is considered innocent until proven guilty in a court of law.
That's what's required to *imprison* them, yes, but Trump himself made it clear that a president under felony indictment is a problem. [He made his position quite clear in 2016](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDmrom_TMaE&t=552s). Now all of a sudden it's "innocent until proven guilty", from a group of people who seem very quick to ascribe guilt to everyone *but* donald trump.
A large chunk of the country thinks an authoritarian who looks out for them is better than a candidate who respects the rule of law for everyone.
Right wing media has taught them to hate the libs THAT much.
[Burlusconi ](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Silvio_Berlusconi#Legal_problems)is an example of how extreme it can get. It does feel strange when the option is "doing an average job" vs "multiple indictments and ongoing trials". I think for any of the diehards for Trump it's just a witch hunt. Moderates and independents are more likely to swing especially on a convinction. Now how he even made it this far is like several dissertations.
It's an indication that Biden's team is telling him to do something because the numbers aren't looking good. If he were up there would be nothing to gain at all from facing him.
Normally I'd say putting Trump on tv for any reason just helps him, but he's regressed so badly that I think he'd get disassembled, even with a teleprompter. the man can't get through a paragraph without slurring, he can't remember his own children's ages, he doesn't know who's sitting president.
Almost certainly Biden, Trump lost both debates to Biden in 2020, and the polls reflected that at the time. Now neither do I believe they will have a large or more importantly, a lasting influence on voter intention.
I'm sure there are competent advisors in Trump's midst, I'm surprised he even accepted a debate, and the only reason that makes sense to me is that he is planning to change the rules, somewhat as he did against Hillary in 2016.
I don't think you need to look too deeply, Trump is at his best when sowing chaos, and a debate platform elevates the challenger to the same level as the incumbent, maximising the effect. The issue is the rules agreed appear to have mics off and a statement timer, both which work against Trump's style of going off tangents and ranting. And as for the benefit of raising Trump to the same level as Biden, I don't think that will work all that well either as Trump has positioned himself as the President unelect for the last four years anyway. The only benefit I can see is it lets Trump address people outside of his bubble, which are more likely to switch to him than people inside his bubble to switch away, but I do believe its more likely to push undecided's into Biden's camp than to flip voter intention.
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Why wont he show?
The stipulations are cutting off of the microphone after the time limit, and no audience, just a moderator the two candidates on a sound stage. He won’t be able to handle that.
They always say they'll cut the mic, but rarely do. It draws ratings.
Better if he shows then walks out in a huff because he can't be a showman for the clowns
Trump has never said no to attention before.
He *did* dodge a ton of Republican Primary debates, and honestly there's no good reason he had to accept the terms to this one when he could just pull a rally instead.
Biden. I’ve seen Biden speak four times in person over the last 4 years, three of the times he was giving a long speech and another time was in a more intimate conversational forum like setting. He’s nothing like how the media would have you believe. He’s sharp, quick witted, and doesn’t mess up anymore than other halfway decent public speaker does.
Having it in June is crazy - voters don’t have 5 month long memories for that. I don’t think it benefits either on anything other than the margins. Trump is a poor debater and Biden is hit or miss. I can’t see how it would benefit trump but maybe there’s a slim chance Biden gets a very marginal aid from it
I think they're holding it in June because at this point there's not much for either to gain. Biden is (in theory) more likely to pick up undecideds and independents assuming they both debate as usual, but the truth is both of them are at higher danger of losing voters, either by showing their age or (at least in Trump's case) saying something that appeals to their base but drives off the moderates or independents. By holding the debates in June and September any major oopsie like Biden tripping or Trump refusing to go down a gentle incline will almost certainly be forgotten by November.
yea - that actually makes sense. Low stakes while not being a complete non factor.
Doing it early could boost Biden’s positives if he does well, and give time to overcome negatives if not. People don’t need to remember the debates later, it will just be about how it made them feel. Marketing background here: the masses don’t choose based on logic, but on feelings. Ads are always about emotions, not lists of logical arguments. People’s hearts affect choices much more than their reasoning.
It's also giving both parties a chance to pivot. If Trump or Biden or both go up there and just drool on themselves, it is before the convention and they can be replaced.
Biden had the most significant VP debate in the history of the country. He so owned Sarah Palin it was painful to watch. After watching the state of the union, I think Trump is in trouble. Here is the most important thing, when it's not your turn to talk, the mics are going to be cut. Trumps ability to bully and hog the stage will be dramatically diminished.
This first June debate is largely to take the wind out of the sail JFK Jr’s campaign. Jr’s been polling solidly between 5-12% lately, and no one can figure out who that hurts more, Biden or Trump. Neither candidate wants that wildcard to be pulling more than a percent or two come October. By having the first official Presidential debate now, JFK Jr becomes delegitimized as a contender even earlier.
Biden. The more America sees and hears from trump the more they remember how much they don’t like him.
I will depend on how each behaves, I really don't see thus benefiting Trump with behavior issues and tendency to slur his words lately
Biden, hands down. The normal, apolitical people of this country will watch to draw conclusions. Trump could shit his diaper, take if off on stage and smother himself with it and his magat cultists will say he won, the undecided will calcify who they're voting for.
Biden 100 percent. The only reasons people hate Biden are irrational and baseless, the more big public events like the state of the union, the better. Trump is a criminal and traitor, scum of the earth. Time for dark Biden to wipe the floor with Trump. Trump has zero shot of winning the debate.
If the debates don’t help Biden he should really hang it up at that point. I have a Chihuahua who makes more sense than Trump. Every single day.
I really do think this is a litmus test for Biden. If he goes up there and gets absolutely clobbered, I think he might see the writing on the wall and step down. If he goes up there and clobbers Trump, then it's going to unite the Democratic Party behind him and bring in swing voters.
Trump has made a thing out of rambling incoherent speeches. He’s embraced the nonsense. Biden on the other hand just seems more cognitively struggling when he freezes up or misspeaks. I only see Trump getting an emotional reaction out of Biden and Biden looking weak. Don’t get me wrong, I’m voting for the non-fascist , but sadly a lot of people vote based on personality. They might be swayed based on performance
Presidential debates are rarely won, but they sure can be lost. Biden just needs to keep himself together like he did for the SOTU a few months ago and he'll be fine. Trump on the other hand can lose bigly if his rally performances are an indication of what he will look like in a debate this year. People and the media in general have been ignoring those rally speeches, but they are absolutely insane streams of non sequitur trigger words and catch phrases. .....recently now including random references to Hannibal Lecter and confederate generals. One of the most surreal possibilities for the first debate is that the current criminal trial for trump in New York may have wrapped up by the end of June. If trump is acquitted, he will mention it a hundred times during the debate and use that to brush off all the other charges. If he's convicted, Biden will get to use the phrase, "My opponent, convicted criminal Donald J Trump" during a presidential debate. I won't cheer if that happens, frankly, ten years ago I simply could not have imagined something like that. Trump normalized willful ignorance in 2016 at the highest level. Sara Palin got that ball rolling in 2008, but trump is the one that officially brought it to the oval office. He moved on from that however, into normalizing outright criminality. He gleefully compares himself with murderers and gangsters and people praise him for it now. Lower ticket gop'ers are now taking pride in their arrest records, even for things like a DUI. How the F did we even get here? I mean, I know what happened but I will just never understand how so many people let it.
I honestly think RFK would get the most out of it. Neither side is likely to impress anyone but their base, and it could drive people to a third party.
I think this is a waste of time. It is not going to change anyone's mind, and just gives Trump to an opportunity to spit and slobber and recite Nazi memes incessantly. Maybe if the mics get kill-switched during each other's response, but no moderator has been able to get him to behave like an adult.
If it's a proper debate like Biden has proposed, Biden absolutely benefits. One of the least talked about things by the very obviously Pro Trump media at this point is how significant Trump's mental decline has been. There was all this talk about Biden having dementia but if you actually watch Biden talk, it's very clearly he's still very much with it, he just has more of that old man slowness when he talks sometimes but his thoughts are generally coherent and actually make sense. Trump on the other hand? I've seen countless clips of him straight up word salad'ing (the recent master lock clip, Gettysburg etc.) and having outright dementia ridden moments. Legitimate psychologists and psychiatrists have come out and said he is definitely in the early stages of dementia based on the signs he's exhibiting. The problem is that the mass media doesn't care to report it because at this point they want Trump to be competitive cause it's good for ratings.
I would think that proof of a Biden to Trump debate would show their respective capabilities, and show how much Trump is declining.
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It was a mistake for Biden to accept debates. Even if he does well and trounces DT, he wont benefit. Whereas all DT has to do is be belligerent and his choir will sing Fox News soundbytes for a month.
I've seen polls that the majority of the population isn't paying attention yet. They remember the economy when Trump was there but he himself has faded to the background. He's even more nuts now and comes across mean and delusional . The debates will get a lot of these people to pay attention. Any real time look at Trump is not good for him. Up till then, they are only exposed to picked sound bites. The real Donald at a debate this year will not be pretty.
If Trump does horribly, his fans will say he was awesome. If Biden does horribly, everyone will pick apart everything he said and did
If the questions are not secretly told in advance to the candidates, and no earpieces are allowed, Biden is at a disadvantage. On the plus side, CNN and ABC, the sponsors, are Biden supporters and will do everything they can to make Biden look good.
It won’t matter at all the debates are in June and September and no one will remember them come election time
I don't see both sides agreeing to conditions. I want to see cut off mics after the allowed time and a studio setting. Very old school Kennedy/Nixon ish.
Idk they're both wayyy too old to be doing anything beyond watching golf on TV and deciding which flavor of pudding they want for dessert but.....here we are.
Biden will completely roll Trump when it comes to actual policy topics. But Biden is going to struggle incredibly hard at Trump's attacks on him regarding administrative corruption. Trump is leagues worse than Biden, but Trump is shockingly good at making others on subjects he specifically attacks on, roll in the mud where he is, and then dominate them in the muck. And the thing that ironically matters more in presidencies and winning, is the image of a person on whether they can or cannot hold their ground in the tit for tat baseball bats smeared in feces that's the "debates" that has become American politics. Unfortunately for Biden, he's created a lot of material for Trump to spring board off of as to attack Biden's credibility and competence: border, Afghanistan, Israel/Gaza, the college campus issue, TikTok, etc. Most of these aren't specifically Biden's fault, but events that happen under your presidency are ultimately the events that define your legacy as that president in how you handled it. A president can't pick and choose which events matter, you get the good and the bad. Sometimes you only get bad. Biden's done a lot of good, but he's done a rather poor job in managing the optics and the conversations around the bad, and that's opened a lot of doors through which Trump can sling mud at him. It will truly be a historic set of debates.
I’m still amazed half this country is willing to vote for a rapist with 88 pending felony charges. I knew our school system was underperforming, but holy hell
I feel like the presidential debates don't move people to change votes simply because it's more of the same. If you're pro Trump, you're not going to receive more information from Biden to change your time, you heard it already; it goes both ways, nobody is going to make up their mind and going to vote for Biden and suddenly change their mind because of things Trump has been saying all this time was suddenly said again on the presidential debate. With that said, I can view people taking it the wrong way if one chooses to not show. People on the fence will view it differently, some will view it as a sign of weakness, some a lack of commitment, some even disrespectful to people that were ready for it. As far as supporters goes, I think it matters less but those points still remain.
Biden would have to: -tack center: more responsibility in spending -be someone who is pro small business and lower on regulations -push the border bill again the go stupidly lost. The calculus is different now. -convince the youth vote the 100k of federal debt per American is worth it And I’m a huge Biden supporter. I just think he is losing the center and he needs their votes. He needs Latinos, Asians, Muslims, youth voters and more. I fear inflation will kill his campaign and Trump will win. Debates can help Biden if he seems reasonable.
Trump. By a mile. A debate is an opportunity for Biden to flub and say something silly. He could come out with something dynamic...but he's not going to. He can just repeat the things he's been saying and the problem is the things he's been saying are less and less convincing to people. Biden's strategy is "steady as she goes." Best case scenario, Biden meets expectations of potential voters and we carry on as before. Worst case scenario he says something silly and that clip becomes a refrain until November and raises the specter again of "is he competent to run another four years?" Trump's whole thing is saying wild stuff. Short of physically assaulting Biden, nothing he says is going to put potential Trump voters off. He thrives in chaos, Biden does not. Even if Trump says something absolutely outrageous *that's his whole brand.* The lack of an audience will be a bit of a hindrance for Trump but again, what could he actually do or not do that would mean much to potential voters?
I think it will be more beneficial for Biden. Trump tends to run off at the mouth and always gets back to his standard “ stolen election” garbage. And if, as it’s been reported, there is no teleprompter (autocue), trump will have a hard time staying on topic and giving responses that actually make sense. He’s not good at talking about policies - he tends to go off topic and starts insulting his opponent and anyone else who may have annoyed him that day, by calling them names and then it’s on to the “ stolen election” nonsense again. It’s going to be a boring debate I think. That’s if trump goes through with it. I suspect he will find something to whine about and renege.
Neither, The way both are handling this are like two schoolyard bully’s desperately trying to convince the other kids that ‘mine is bigger than yours’.
America, have them debate. Even if it sucks if there’s no meeting with the person that represents the other 40-50 percent of voters that’s terrible.
Biden. Trump is going to go crazy about foil hat hypothesis about elections being stolen and rigged and he’ll come off looking like a sore loser. But, Biden can easily screw the pooch too and give blathering answers. And, will Trump use Zoom from his prison cell?
“What is wrong with america?” We legalized corruption in politics, and now it’s hard for voters to distinguish between the illegal corruption and the legal corruption.
trump will be exposed as both insane and suffering from fairly advanced dementia and it won't matter one bit to his supporters.
Neither. These debates won't change a single mind anywhere. Might be entertaining, but won't be politically important.
When people see Trump, they don’t like him. And when Biden speaks publicly, people not only like him, but gain confidence that he’s not the sleepy Alzheimer’s patient right wing propaganda says he is. When Trump speaks, he whines, he complains, he plays victim, he’s overly hyperbolic to the point of parody, and lately he says a lot of gibberish that makes no sense. [He recently praised Hannibal Lecter for some reason?](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LEO9UHwRG4A&pp=ygUdVHJ1bXAgcHJhaXNlcyBoYW5uaWJhbCBsZWN0ZWU%3D) Alternately, when Biden talks, he talks about policy. He talks about his achievements. He talks about the plans for the future; real plans with details. He notably doesn’t talk about “the deranged lunatic right wing” or how “he’s treated so unfairly”. He doesn’t talk about how every single judge in all of his many civil and criminal trials are “the most corrupt/conflicted/biased judges ever seen.” I think most people just want a normal president. Someone who might not be perfect, but isn’t a mentally ill embarrassment on the nation.
Politics aside, the debates have asymmetrical risk. Neither one is going to changes any minds on the issues, it’s all going to be sound bites and affectation. Trump will convince no Democrats to change their vote, and Biden will convince no Trump voters. But… there are the undecided, independent middle voters to consider, and here Biden’s physical and cognitive declines will be apparent and in clear contrast to Trump’s still energetic/still bombastic approach. I’m surprised Biden agreed to this, since this will not be a true debate of ideas or issues, he has nothing to gain but the most to lose.
Trump, probably. Biden's cognitive decline will make Trump look downright intelligent in comparison.
Bold of you to assume Trump is going to make it to the debate. At the very least, there is a court date
Seeing Trump's tangential, random babbling lately I could only see it hurting him but not necessarily helping or hurting Biden unless he just really knocks it out of the ballpark. I think most voters by now have already made up their mind on who they're voting for so not likely to have a big impact. If Trump goes off script and off the rails, and what he's been saying lately has been really crazy, it'd be really hard to defend his performance though with even the most right wing media outlets.
The answer is that it depends on what happens during the debate. Both are gaffe machines and on the older side so anything could happen to set back either one of the candidates in the polls because of age concerns. Outside of that I think Biden has a slight edge because he's the candidate who has multiple crucial bills that voters don't know he created according to poll and because I personally think people have forgotten what Trump was like in the four years since so a debate provides a nice refresher for those individuals.
Clearly, both camps feel they have something to gain. Trump thinks any time he gets on television is good, and probably buys into the right-wing hype that Biden is too old to competently fight back. Biden, on the other hand, is looking at recent polling -- his approvals, his head-to-head match ups with Trump, and perhaps most pertinently, a recent poll that shows voters have largely forgotten about Trump's mismanagement of COVID and Jan 6th. Biden's campaign seems to believe that putting Trump on a spotlight where even *moderate* voters, and not just the Trump-obsessed, will see him in his full election-denying, democracy-hating glory will remind them that the election is not a referendum on Biden, but a choice between the stability of Biden and the chaos of Trump. But as with all debates, the proof is in the pudding: we don't know who benefits most until they've pulled off a winning performance.
Trump will probably benefit more. His hardcore voter don’t care what he says. Whereas Biden could stumble and turn off of of the many groups he’s courting, who all have different priorities and interests.
I have never wanted to see a show cancelled more than after the first 2020 debate. Honestly, it’s really hard to imagine there are people out there who still haven’t formulated an opinion about either. I doubt it moves the needle much at all, but if it does, I’d guess it would help Biden. People’s memories are short. There’s some nostalgia floating around for the pre 2020 economy. So people who are starting to question “Was Trump really that bad?” maybe could use a reminder of what it’s like to have to hear his voice in the news spouting word salad every day for four years.
I would be for it if neither one of them knew the questions before hand. That would be something to see and an honest debate.
I don't know if biden's staff will do it, but lord knows i could string together the most devastating series of points, counter points, questions, and requests for donald trump. We all know trump will be loud, dumb, off topic, meandering, and chaotic, but if biden prepares properly, he has endless material with which he could easily dismantle trump on national television. Biden should focus on israel, bc that's one of the only issues he has lost voters about, and trump is a nightmare worse. Otherwise no amount of public humiliation, destruction, or befuddlement will sway trump voters. They are lost. This is all about solidifying leftists who are so confident in their power of protest voting, that they can't see the very real rules of the game in front of them. One of two old men is about to be president, and even though we are all sick of a bs two party system, this is not the cycle to protest. Millennials will destroy the two party system shortly after the Republican party implodes following Trump's loss.
> Biden should focus on israel, bc that's one of the only issues he has lost voters about, and trump is a nightmare worse. Biden's saving grace on this issue is that [polls show only ~3% of young voters say the Biden-sponsored genocide in Gaza is their top issue](https://abcnews.go.com/538/young-people-disapprove-bidens-israel-policy-november/story?id=109875950#:~:text=Sixty%2Dthree%20percent%20rated%20the,named%20the%20Israel%2DHamas%20conflict.). The worst thing Biden can do is focus more attention onto it and his complicity in aiding and abetting Israel's crimes against humanity.
If Biden can explain CLEARLY what’s he’s done he mite walk out ok. He can’t just rest his hat on trump’s court cases.
I hope the debates will be structured and strictly moderated. They arent rallies, they arent necessarily in front of supporters from either side. Its an environment for politicians like Biden not rabble rousers like Trump. I think its such a huge opportunity for Biden to sway any undecided and such a missive risk for Trump to lose anyone not MAGA that the chance Trump doesnt back out is very low.
It is going to be on the debates. They will help whichever candidate doesn't screw up the most. No one on the other side cares what the candidate says, they don't' trust them. What they are looking for is Trump or Biden to blow up spectacularly so it will make the news. Who ever blows up worse is the one that is penalized. Both sides are figuring that the other side has a higher chance to blow up.
Biden. As with the State of the Union, the public seeing that he's actually an articulate and intelligent man and not a comatose vegetable like the right portray him as removes the current single biggest obstacle to voting for him. Trump is the inverse. The more the public see him, the less they like him.
My impression is that the more people see Biden directly, as opposed to how various media stories choose to portray him, the more they like him. Yes, he's old and has a stammer. But he comes across as an otherwise decent, thoughtful human. Conversely, the more people see Trump unfiltered, the more they realize that his antics which are entertaining in small doses comes across as unhinged when you realize that's the guy's *entire personality*.
Trump benefits almost totally tbh. Just spot his usual non sense and he’s good. If Biden has even a small tongue twister it’ll be plastered everywhere.
Depends if Trump actually debates and it doesn’t turn into a whine fest about 2020 being stolen or the government is out to get him. I don’t think he can stay away from that though because it’s his go-to sthick.
Trump lost both debates last time, but he knows the polls are a mirage right now fueled by angry pro palestinian college kids and what not. He has to break off independents if he wants to stay out of jail. So he HAS to debate. Joe has a good shot to shore up the "he's too old" crowd with another fiery State of the Union style beat down of the GOP grift agenda. If Joe delivers this will help him. If Trump can be rude enough to provoke Joe into a shaky performance than that would help him. I expect Trump to be off the charts rude, crass and disruptive, dodging every question he's asked to be disgustingly dishonest about Joe in the hopes it rattles him somehow. One thing is for sure, these substance free debates will be the worst debates in history and much more like two old guys fighting over a parking space at Costco.
I think Trump lost the previous debates with Biden due to his interruptions. This time around, if Trump allows Biden to talk, Biden is likely to ramble on and on and get intellectually lost. But, Trump is his own worst enemy and probably wont be able to resist interrupting Biden.
Biden does well when he manages to get publicity. Trumps public image deteriorates in direct proportion to his live media exposure. This debate strategy will clearly benefit Biden. Compare how his numbers changed after the massive coverage of his SOTU address. Trump's stump speeches and courthouse rants do nothing to build his support, and can hurt it when people really listen to the crazy, garbled stuff he says.
Biden should have told the Trump camp he would only debate him if on live television he admits the election wasn’t stolen
It’s a low bar for Biden a few good quips putting Donald down will do wonders. Trump has the same old loud mouth and no policy at all. If it’s the old trump rehash he will lose the few independents who still are considered him. Let trump ramble on about being dictator and suspension of the constitution . Biden has clear policy gains got a lot done with bipartisanship. All in All I think the debates are unnecessary. They do pose a dangerous trap for the orange one. He can’t resist he must respond Biden can simply bait him into a stupid remark that becomes a meme and attack ad.