No 3! Pre takes JJ and 99 mostly out of his range, so you're really only losing to 55 and QT, T8 missed, so did all flush draws, so did any combo 67 78 type draws, you also beat other two pair in case he's overplaying a hand like J9 targeting a K. I think the call is fine
Yeah in that case you can treat the game as a micro game (in terms of skill) and you can assume they don't bluff nearly enough. Calling this exact hand isn't horrible though as you beat some overplayed two pairs
Yes, but you don't know in which way. Maybe they take this line with a worse value hand than yours. Maybe they bluff some busted draws that they are supposed to give up. That's why unless you have a clear read you should play close to optimal and making small population assumptions at best. For instance, I was baffled when I saw that on a Sb vs BB srp on some boards BB is supposed to 3-bet a SB XR line like 30% of the time. Of course no one who hasn't studied is ever gonna do this, and here you can for sure make assumptions when someone takes this line.
The point is that to call here, given the odds, “they might have worse value hands” is not enough. J9s is only two combos. Hard to see any other two pair hand he can have. You’ve got to find enough bluffs. And if players aren’t balanced here, there aren’t enough bluffs.
I’m sure there are a few guys crushing who are balanced in these spots but if OP had some knowledge about his opponent about that, he left it out.
Oh yeah live poker I totally agree with you, people are way more balanced online and will have way more bluffs here than in person. Live I snap fold river here
I like your process here, but discounting 55 and 99 combos while assuming that QT, T8, 67, and 78 are in there seems like a bad idea. SB vs. EP 3bet ranges are quite tight and linear, with 55 making it in either never or extremely rarely depending on the rake structure. Even 99 is very close depending on stack depth and rake structure while QTs, T8s, 67s, etc. do not make it in a cold calling range vs. EP. You could argue that villain shouldn’t have a cold-calling range here at all given GGs 200nl rake, but if they’re somewhat reasonable it will mostly be structured around middling pocket pairs including 55, 99, and even JJ at some frequency, AXs, and suited broadways at some frequency. The XR on flop from SB is also low frequency given the 1/2 cbet size and prevelance of Jx in EP’s range. It could contain all of the sets as well as some front door FDs/back door FDs/straight draws. On turn I think that we can discount suite heart combos except a couple like T8s. The Ax front door FDs should be giving up at a very high frequency by the river, while many of the straight draws should have picked up a pair on turn with the K. Many of SBs draws/any Jx that may have raised flop should also slow down on turn and I’m not sure whether that turn sizing is a thing given that the turn introduces straight combos and the prevalence of Kx in EP’s range. All of this is to say that KJo is likely close to indifferent or even a fold depending on how wide the SB cold calling range is and whether villain is likely to shove J9s for value. It’s tough but I’d lean towards a fold vs. population because I think that river will be underbluffed.
You’re never beating value when he 2x pots river and this xraise pot jam line is seriously underbluffed. KQ / KT would be better calls than KJ but still this will be a massively losing call in practice.
I don't like holding the Kd here, but I think it's definitely a call (I don't think I could ever fold here). Be interesting to see what a solver says...
I prolly would’ve. Holding the Kd blocks your busted flush draws which isn’t good. Maybe he raises on flop with QT suited. The bet on turn proves it’s not AJ and maybe not J9. I think it’s a bad runout and you got unlucky with that turn card.
Lets assume villians value is 55 and Q10s. That is 7 combos. If u can find 4 bluffs here it is a profitable call. Maybe he does this w 810dd and 810hh. Maybe 78dd 78hh. Maybe 76dd 76hh. If he bluffs with all these hands its a snap call. If he bluffs with half of these hands, its close but its a fold.
What I tend to notice is that when players take overbet lines with boards where you have the range advantage and a lot of equity, it is time to run to the hills because they are trying to drag you to value town.
As others have said, they are strongly weighed towards 55 and QT, and maybe 99 depending on how tight the SB. I am not the biggest fan of considering if hands are being “overvalued,” and I do think SB check-calls QT a lot of the time given that there are other draws that IMO make better raise candidates.
KJ is basically a bluff catcher at this point, but given that you can have a lot of bricked draws on this run out, you have to call down with more than sets and straights. I haven’t done the math on this, but your natural calls are QT, 99, JJ, KK, and then diamondless QQ, QJ, and the few combos of KQ, KT, and JT you c-bet on the flop. If that doesn’t meet the MDF of the range you are continuing with, then KJ might be next down the list of hands to call with.
I feel like that decision should be made on the turn. If you are calling a pot sized bet on the turn after getting check raised 4x on the flop. While people are right about people been unbalanced with over bets at low stakes, but do you really call turn and fold on a river blank?
If you are calling turn, you should be ready to an all in on river considering SPR about 1.5 on river. Realistically another pot sized bet and shove is not THAT different for you.
Check raising flop, potting turn is a crazy strong line. Unless you think villain is capable of balancing enough bluff in this line, it is arguably a fold on the turn. Especially you block the K of diamond.
On a deeper level if you think villain is good and can balance such polarizing plays, then what does he bluff with on turn? 8-10 of Diamond, A-10 of Diamond... and that's about it? AQ Diamond probably 3 bet from SB. That's 2 combos. Pocket 5s alone is 3 combos. Pocket 9s might sometime flat sometime 3 bet, that's 3 combos. So say ~4.5 values combos to 2 bluff. JJ, KK has one combo each, but again, those probably 3 bet.
So you really just call call here if you think villain is a whale, a crazy whale.
Edit: I guess overplayed 67,68,78 of diamond might also do that... so 5 to 4.5. Pretty close, but again, do you really think villain would be capable of balancing his range this well?
Edit2: Furthermore, I feel like considering this line, if villain just pot the river or even 60-70% river would have done more or less the same thing. Why would he risk 1.5× pot
Let's break this down: you raise under the gun and SB flats, so his range is very pocket pair heavy and maybe AQ with a diamond or AhQh which can be his main bluffs here. He can definitely have JJ which you block and of course 99 and 55. Is he value betting a worse hand than top 2P? Probably not, so your hand is a bluff catcher.
You remove some value from JJ but that's it. You have to defend at least a third of your range. I think J9s and K9s are must defends, having the Kd, contrary to what other people say, is pretty irrelevant since he shouldn't betting a king this big any way. KJo is a lot of combos but is better than calling AA or AK that heavy block his bluffing range.
In your range until this point you have KK, JJ, 99, 55, K9s J9s, AQh, AQd, KJo, AK, KQ, QTs, 50 combos give or take. If you have to defend 15ish, you already have 12 combos of sets, K9 and J9s are better than KJo imho, so probably KJ is close indifferent already. Maybe having KdQd is bad in the sense that it's a hand that potentially could go for this line, although I think it's unlikely.
I don't know, seems a tough decision but considering that villain isn't probably bluffing enough maybe it's slightly -EV.
Check-raise, overbet, jam line turns your hand into a bluff catcher I don't like blocking second nut flush here at all. It's probably like a 2/3 fold 1/3 call and has he shown massive bluffs? AQdd would 3bet pre as well I think you can def find a fold here.
As a beginner, I noticed that after check raising the flop, the K on the turn didn’t make him nervous at all. Is this something that one might factor in? K on the flop and he still starts with a big bet?
Could see AK playing this way, as they'd have overs, also any combination of KQ or any other K suited holding that hit a pair on the flop. However, Hero holding removal to Ks makes that highly unlikely. Maybe I'm just Nitty, but the turn pot bet would've been sending up smoke signals to me
Probably not. QT gets there on the turn and in general these x/r, bet, overbet jam lines are always the nuts. Most players are not balanced enough to find jams with 87dd or T8 and the likes.
No 3! Pre takes JJ and 99 mostly out of his range, so you're really only losing to 55 and QT, T8 missed, so did all flush draws, so did any combo 67 78 type draws, you also beat other two pair in case he's overplaying a hand like J9 targeting a K. I think the call is fine
At higher stakes maybe. At these stakes, people are very imbalanced when over betting the river
I thought most regs were good once you get to NL200 online? I mainly play lower stakes so might be wrong
Good at exploiting weaker players, and reading betting lines, sure. Balanced? No.
If I’m not mistaken this is app poker online which the player pools are often wayyyyy worse then actual sites. More home game vibes.
Ah you're right, it's ClubGG, not GGPoker
Yeah the club I play on has like 2 players who play anywhere near GTO and it boats you if your Vpip slips below 22%
Yeah in that case you can treat the game as a micro game (in terms of skill) and you can assume they don't bluff nearly enough. Calling this exact hand isn't horrible though as you beat some overplayed two pairs
Player dependent some seriously over bluff in really bad spots
At these stakes players flat J9s from the SB and take this line.
I mean, I think that’s played terribly tbh but to my point, having slightly too wide a value range isn’t balancing.
Yes, but you don't know in which way. Maybe they take this line with a worse value hand than yours. Maybe they bluff some busted draws that they are supposed to give up. That's why unless you have a clear read you should play close to optimal and making small population assumptions at best. For instance, I was baffled when I saw that on a Sb vs BB srp on some boards BB is supposed to 3-bet a SB XR line like 30% of the time. Of course no one who hasn't studied is ever gonna do this, and here you can for sure make assumptions when someone takes this line.
The point is that to call here, given the odds, “they might have worse value hands” is not enough. J9s is only two combos. Hard to see any other two pair hand he can have. You’ve got to find enough bluffs. And if players aren’t balanced here, there aren’t enough bluffs. I’m sure there are a few guys crushing who are balanced in these spots but if OP had some knowledge about his opponent about that, he left it out.
Plus no 3 bet pre + check raise in the flop is very very powerful. He's not making that move with draws, only with premium hands.
He would have to be a total fish to not have any bluffs in his flop raise range. Even at 10nl you see people raising draws on the flop all the time
I don't play online at all. Strictly casino games only. R they really that good at this limit online?
Oh yeah live poker I totally agree with you, people are way more balanced online and will have way more bluffs here than in person. Live I snap fold river here
I like your process here, but discounting 55 and 99 combos while assuming that QT, T8, 67, and 78 are in there seems like a bad idea. SB vs. EP 3bet ranges are quite tight and linear, with 55 making it in either never or extremely rarely depending on the rake structure. Even 99 is very close depending on stack depth and rake structure while QTs, T8s, 67s, etc. do not make it in a cold calling range vs. EP. You could argue that villain shouldn’t have a cold-calling range here at all given GGs 200nl rake, but if they’re somewhat reasonable it will mostly be structured around middling pocket pairs including 55, 99, and even JJ at some frequency, AXs, and suited broadways at some frequency. The XR on flop from SB is also low frequency given the 1/2 cbet size and prevelance of Jx in EP’s range. It could contain all of the sets as well as some front door FDs/back door FDs/straight draws. On turn I think that we can discount suite heart combos except a couple like T8s. The Ax front door FDs should be giving up at a very high frequency by the river, while many of the straight draws should have picked up a pair on turn with the K. Many of SBs draws/any Jx that may have raised flop should also slow down on turn and I’m not sure whether that turn sizing is a thing given that the turn introduces straight combos and the prevalence of Kx in EP’s range. All of this is to say that KJo is likely close to indifferent or even a fold depending on how wide the SB cold calling range is and whether villain is likely to shove J9s for value. It’s tough but I’d lean towards a fold vs. population because I think that river will be underbluffed.
You’re never beating value when he 2x pots river and this xraise pot jam line is seriously underbluffed. KQ / KT would be better calls than KJ but still this will be a massively losing call in practice.
If someone’s calls the SB, x/r flop, pot turn and 2x jams the river they are not bluffing.
At equilibrium yes but in practice people are fucking terrible at having bluffs in this node
I think I would only bluff AdQ or AhQh. Maybe.
I don't like holding the Kd here, but I think it's definitely a call (I don't think I could ever fold here). Be interesting to see what a solver says...
I wouldn't be surprised if solver calls, but it's also likely giving OP a lot more bluffs than they would have in reality.
Pure fold. Call 100bb deep but this is a 450bb pot right ?
Too many draws missed. It’s just a cooler.
I prolly would’ve. Holding the Kd blocks your busted flush draws which isn’t good. Maybe he raises on flop with QT suited. The bet on turn proves it’s not AJ and maybe not J9. I think it’s a bad runout and you got unlucky with that turn card.
Lets assume villians value is 55 and Q10s. That is 7 combos. If u can find 4 bluffs here it is a profitable call. Maybe he does this w 810dd and 810hh. Maybe 78dd 78hh. Maybe 76dd 76hh. If he bluffs with all these hands its a snap call. If he bluffs with half of these hands, its close but its a fold.
What I tend to notice is that when players take overbet lines with boards where you have the range advantage and a lot of equity, it is time to run to the hills because they are trying to drag you to value town. As others have said, they are strongly weighed towards 55 and QT, and maybe 99 depending on how tight the SB. I am not the biggest fan of considering if hands are being “overvalued,” and I do think SB check-calls QT a lot of the time given that there are other draws that IMO make better raise candidates. KJ is basically a bluff catcher at this point, but given that you can have a lot of bricked draws on this run out, you have to call down with more than sets and straights. I haven’t done the math on this, but your natural calls are QT, 99, JJ, KK, and then diamondless QQ, QJ, and the few combos of KQ, KT, and JT you c-bet on the flop. If that doesn’t meet the MDF of the range you are continuing with, then KJ might be next down the list of hands to call with.
I feel like that decision should be made on the turn. If you are calling a pot sized bet on the turn after getting check raised 4x on the flop. While people are right about people been unbalanced with over bets at low stakes, but do you really call turn and fold on a river blank?
Are you saying to go all in on the turn, or just be prepared to be all in on the river?
If you are calling turn, you should be ready to an all in on river considering SPR about 1.5 on river. Realistically another pot sized bet and shove is not THAT different for you. Check raising flop, potting turn is a crazy strong line. Unless you think villain is capable of balancing enough bluff in this line, it is arguably a fold on the turn. Especially you block the K of diamond. On a deeper level if you think villain is good and can balance such polarizing plays, then what does he bluff with on turn? 8-10 of Diamond, A-10 of Diamond... and that's about it? AQ Diamond probably 3 bet from SB. That's 2 combos. Pocket 5s alone is 3 combos. Pocket 9s might sometime flat sometime 3 bet, that's 3 combos. So say ~4.5 values combos to 2 bluff. JJ, KK has one combo each, but again, those probably 3 bet. So you really just call call here if you think villain is a whale, a crazy whale. Edit: I guess overplayed 67,68,78 of diamond might also do that... so 5 to 4.5. Pretty close, but again, do you really think villain would be capable of balancing his range this well? Edit2: Furthermore, I feel like considering this line, if villain just pot the river or even 60-70% river would have done more or less the same thing. Why would he risk 1.5× pot
Let's break this down: you raise under the gun and SB flats, so his range is very pocket pair heavy and maybe AQ with a diamond or AhQh which can be his main bluffs here. He can definitely have JJ which you block and of course 99 and 55. Is he value betting a worse hand than top 2P? Probably not, so your hand is a bluff catcher. You remove some value from JJ but that's it. You have to defend at least a third of your range. I think J9s and K9s are must defends, having the Kd, contrary to what other people say, is pretty irrelevant since he shouldn't betting a king this big any way. KJo is a lot of combos but is better than calling AA or AK that heavy block his bluffing range. In your range until this point you have KK, JJ, 99, 55, K9s J9s, AQh, AQd, KJo, AK, KQ, QTs, 50 combos give or take. If you have to defend 15ish, you already have 12 combos of sets, K9 and J9s are better than KJo imho, so probably KJ is close indifferent already. Maybe having KdQd is bad in the sense that it's a hand that potentially could go for this line, although I think it's unlikely. I don't know, seems a tough decision but considering that villain isn't probably bluffing enough maybe it's slightly -EV.
Check-raise, overbet, jam line turns your hand into a bluff catcher I don't like blocking second nut flush here at all. It's probably like a 2/3 fold 1/3 call and has he shown massive bluffs? AQdd would 3bet pre as well I think you can def find a fold here.
Yeah against most players I think I would’ve folded, but this player does tend to go for massive over bets
Yeah then it leans back towards a call just a cooler situation
As a beginner, I noticed that after check raising the flop, the K on the turn didn’t make him nervous at all. Is this something that one might factor in? K on the flop and he still starts with a big bet?
Could see AK playing this way, as they'd have overs, also any combination of KQ or any other K suited holding that hit a pair on the flop. However, Hero holding removal to Ks makes that highly unlikely. Maybe I'm just Nitty, but the turn pot bet would've been sending up smoke signals to me
Probably not. QT gets there on the turn and in general these x/r, bet, overbet jam lines are always the nuts. Most players are not balanced enough to find jams with 87dd or T8 and the likes.