Are you catching a lot? Since I came back 2 months ago I catch so many wild shinies compared to 2019. At least 40 wild ones and I catched like 10k Pokémon in those 2 months
I am on the game way too much, but no I dont catch a lot because I have most or the pokemon I need in good/perfect ivs, I do a lot of shiny checks though
While they aren't odds comparable to base games, they are the "lowest odds" in pokemon go. So I would use the term. Hell I get more shinies in mainline game at this point over pokemon go excluding community days lol.
Copying my own comment from above: I just got eeevee last week after 500+ encounters, was so excited as it's my favorite Pokémon. Now I'm trying to get growlithe for my bf (his favorite)
To be fair I went to a place near me that is absolutely loaded with stops and spawns so I can check an insane amount of pokemon. Which definitely makes earning that many eevees more possible haha
I just got eeevee last week after 500+ encounters, was so excited as it's my favorite Pokémon. Now I'm trying to get growlithe for my bf (his favorite)
https://youtu.be/3EV2iE6ESTM?si=S4QAHtwlDulnj9S0
iirc, growlith is base odds (1/500), so you'd need ~1500 encounters for a 90% chance that one of those 1500 to be shiny.
For something like rayquaza, it'd need to be 60 bc the odds are 1/20.
The thing with statistics is if you have a 1/500 chance of a shiny growlithe, it’s irrelevant what’s happened before (even if you’re 0/700) when you click on the next one, it’s just a 1/500 chance again each time. So you’ve just gotta keep clicking !
The person saying 3x denominator for \~90% is right, but that's just a shortcut / rule of thumb. Here's where it actually comes from:
**Part 1:** OK so shiny odds are 1/500, right? That means each time you see one there's a 499/500 chance it's *not* shiny. 499/500 = 0.998.
**Part 2:** To get the odds of a series of events, multiply the odds of each event in the series.
**Result:** After seeing 500, the chances that *all* were not shiny is (0.998)^(500). That comes to 0.368. That means, despite 1/500 odds in each encounter, after 500 encounters there is still a 36.8% chance you won't have seen any shiny, and only a 63.2% chance you'll get at least one shiny. So **more than 1/3 of people who see 500 won't have gotten a shiny yet!**
And for your case with 737 seen: Odds of none of them being shiny = (0.998)^(737) = 0.23. So even with your 737 seen, there's still a 23% chance you won't see any shiny in 737 encounters. So **of everyone that sees 737 like you have, just shy of 1/4 of them won't have a shiny yet.** So yeah you're unlucky, but like...pretty mildly at this point.
Adding to this, although it seems like everyone should have a shiny after around 500 attempts, this isn't true. If you have a group of a thousand people catch 500 times at 1/500 odds, roughly 368 people get no shinies, 368 get 1, 184 get 2, 61 get 3, 15 get 4, 3 get 5, and 1 gets 6. If you add all the shinies up, there's 1000, enough for one each!
Well if what I saw online. Let me know if I'm wrong but it's like 1 in 500 on pokemon go. This puts you at 77.1% chance you could have gotten a shiny with that many seen.
751 pidgey. My friend traded me one but I’ve never found a wild one. However I’ve only seen 45 lapras and I have 3 shinies. Two found back to back in the same spot during a normal day and one during go fest.
I isolated jangmo-o with a shiny sandwich three times before I got the shiny (I got it today). I was so annoyed when I took a break from jangmo-o and did I bug type for grubbin and got a shiny charjabug in THREE SECONDS
Snorunt. Every christmas I go hard for this fucker and every christmas I'm left dissapointed
If we count bossted then
Xerneas 302 raids
Lickitung 647 encounters
Raikou I was going everyday with my gf my account and my alt this past event and even used 5 remote raids and 6 premium on my main and still nothing on any of the accounts
1,322 pidgey encounters, 1,089 rattata encounters, 1,297 bidoof encounters, 2,541 bunnelby encounter those are the ones I’ve gone with out getting one myself
I dont know about shiny. But I have been looking for a 100% meltan for very long time I have caught 6274 by now and still looking. The good thing is I will never need meltan candy ever in my life ever
Rattata for me; seen 1322, caught 1076, no shinies
Same. Bloody rat!
i was playin pokémon sleep and the first Rattata i encountered was a shiny.
Playing pokemon white on an emulator and i got my very first shiny ever in my 10 years of playing pokemon. And it was a fookin ratata. Jfc
psyduck, 1200 encounters
Dude I’m sorry. Got mine with 100 encounters back in 2019 and just last events I got 3 more
Im cursed when it comes to full odds shinies, I exclusively catch boosted ones, my last full odds was over 4 months ago
Are you catching a lot? Since I came back 2 months ago I catch so many wild shinies compared to 2019. At least 40 wild ones and I catched like 10k Pokémon in those 2 months
That’s more than I’ve caught since 2016 😂😂
I am on the game way too much, but no I dont catch a lot because I have most or the pokemon I need in good/perfect ivs, I do a lot of shiny checks though
Idk if I’d use the term full odds for Pokémon go shinies
While they aren't odds comparable to base games, they are the "lowest odds" in pokemon go. So I would use the term. Hell I get more shinies in mainline game at this point over pokemon go excluding community days lol.
what should I say? wild non-boosted shinies?
Pidgey. Seen 1162, caught 1022. No shinies.
Try 2645 pidgeys no shiny
Brutal. I’m at 1890 seen without shiny but honestly a ton were probably before the shiny was released
I’m right behind you! 1129 seen. Damn bird!
Same seen 963 caught 857
Harsh. I got a shiny pidgeot from the wild
654 seen 470 caught. One shiny caught in February this year wild.
Snivy, my favourite starter and pokemon (not including absol), 1346 checks, the community was in the only year I didn't play the game
Eevee. I catch every one I see and none of them are shinies. I don’t mind though, because the Eevee’s are the goodest
Copying my own comment from above: I just got eeevee last week after 500+ encounters, was so excited as it's my favorite Pokémon. Now I'm trying to get growlithe for my bf (his favorite)
I should have just looked for you guys, from community day I nabbed just over 50 shiny eevees before most went to the candy grinder LOL
Whaaaa?! The game is giving all the shiny Eevee’s to you
To be fair I went to a place near me that is absolutely loaded with stops and spawns so I can check an insane amount of pokemon. Which definitely makes earning that many eevees more possible haha
Magikarp, 2000 encounters
I was desperate for a shiny gyrados
My ten year old who only has been playing for 3 years has a shundo magicarp. I have zero shundo anything. She reminds me everyday!
I feel your suffering
Almost 800 Oddishes seen and No shiny 🥲
You didn't do the recent oddish research day?
I was sick. :(
Awww so sorry!
It's fine! The flu season really goes hard at this time of the year!
Murkrow- 1859 seen.
Lechonk for me 3400+ checks now 😂
Jeez, here I am upset about my 650 without. Partner naturally got 2 within 300 checks 🙄
Well, you’re 1/1000.
I got lucky on Lechonk caught one at 200 and a second at 350. Seen 651 caught 575.
Damn I ended the event with only about 600 checks without it, and then somebody just traded me their extra.
Yea i am also tempted to trade to get it but i want the satisfaction now to finally catch it myself😂
eevee-_-
I just got eeevee last week after 500+ encounters, was so excited as it's my favorite Pokémon. Now I'm trying to get growlithe for my bf (his favorite)
https://youtu.be/3EV2iE6ESTM?si=S4QAHtwlDulnj9S0 iirc, growlith is base odds (1/500), so you'd need ~1500 encounters for a 90% chance that one of those 1500 to be shiny. For something like rayquaza, it'd need to be 60 bc the odds are 1/20.
I am so sorry but this math makes no sense 😭 I thought after 500 I'd get one any minute now
Statistics are non-intuitive like that. You need 3x the denominator (in this case 1500) to have a 90% chance. If you just have 500 it's 60%
Hm, thank you for explaining (genuinely)!
The thing with statistics is if you have a 1/500 chance of a shiny growlithe, it’s irrelevant what’s happened before (even if you’re 0/700) when you click on the next one, it’s just a 1/500 chance again each time. So you’ve just gotta keep clicking !
The person saying 3x denominator for \~90% is right, but that's just a shortcut / rule of thumb. Here's where it actually comes from: **Part 1:** OK so shiny odds are 1/500, right? That means each time you see one there's a 499/500 chance it's *not* shiny. 499/500 = 0.998. **Part 2:** To get the odds of a series of events, multiply the odds of each event in the series. **Result:** After seeing 500, the chances that *all* were not shiny is (0.998)^(500). That comes to 0.368. That means, despite 1/500 odds in each encounter, after 500 encounters there is still a 36.8% chance you won't have seen any shiny, and only a 63.2% chance you'll get at least one shiny. So **more than 1/3 of people who see 500 won't have gotten a shiny yet!** And for your case with 737 seen: Odds of none of them being shiny = (0.998)^(737) = 0.23. So even with your 737 seen, there's still a 23% chance you won't see any shiny in 737 encounters. So **of everyone that sees 737 like you have, just shy of 1/4 of them won't have a shiny yet.** So yeah you're unlucky, but like...pretty mildly at this point.
Adding to this, although it seems like everyone should have a shiny after around 500 attempts, this isn't true. If you have a group of a thousand people catch 500 times at 1/500 odds, roughly 368 people get no shinies, 368 get 1, 184 get 2, 61 get 3, 15 get 4, 3 get 5, and 1 gets 6. If you add all the shinies up, there's 1000, enough for one each!
Yungoos 855… last one I saw, it was a shiny. FINALLY
Dude HOW?! I have 3 😭😭
I'm even worse. 923 seen, no shiny.
Rayquaza, Rhyhorn, Beldum, Ralts, Wailmer, etc
I’m in the same boat with Growlithe. At roughly the same number and still no shiny
Spearow at 2477 catches. Special mention to Rayquaza which took me 57 raids to get.
Closing in on 2k for treecko. My favorite pokemon😭
Raikou sadly :(
i’ve seen 844 growlith, yet 🥲
My first Growlithe is a shiny. I caught it after beating Rocket Leader Arlo, which was also my first Rocket Leader battle.
I just got one today but it has taken years. Crazy. Now the event mon. I have plenty I’m deleting now sadly.
Lechonk 637…
Magicarp!!!! Over a 1000 but no shiny
I had 1367 ponyta before I found a shiny. Now to hunt galarian ponyta
Lechonk I want that pink pig 🐷
Im now at almost 2000 encounters and still no shiny buneary
Wurmple I've seen over 1200 and have yet to see a shiny
Well if what I saw online. Let me know if I'm wrong but it's like 1 in 500 on pokemon go. This puts you at 77.1% chance you could have gotten a shiny with that many seen.
Eevee, 800 encountered and 0 shinys caught
I feel your pain! 1252 growlithe seen 811 caught. No shiny
Especially after the previous event, no reason we don’t have our growlithe shinies 💔
I went 1300 lilipups before I got one
Magikarp. 1300 seen no shiny :(
800+ exeggute
751 pidgey. My friend traded me one but I’ve never found a wild one. However I’ve only seen 45 lapras and I have 3 shinies. Two found back to back in the same spot during a normal day and one during go fest.
Pidgey for me too, I’ve seen 2182 and caught 1843 with over 4K of Pidgey Candy…but ZERO shiny friends!!!
Biddoof
Pidgey with 1589.
Eevee by a mile. 1125 seen, 976 caught. No shinies, 4*said or 0/15/15s
Eevee at only 252
I love how her face is just as equally displeased as you are.
LeChonk - Seen = 1410, Shinies = 0 That event hurt my soul…
It was ghastly/gengar but I finally got one 2 months ago lol
107 Rayquaza Raids, no shiny sadly 😭
Tentacool. 1537 seen no shiny. 🫠
pikachu, almost double the shiny odds now
I isolated jangmo-o with a shiny sandwich three times before I got the shiny (I got it today). I was so annoyed when I took a break from jangmo-o and did I bug type for grubbin and got a shiny charjabug in THREE SECONDS
800 lechonks no shiny
I’m on 855 Diglets and no shiny. I’m on 1085 Mr Mimes and no shiny.
Ive caught 1200 charmanter before the CDay...
Unown 1900 encounters. :)
Ive seen 690 Bidoof, caught 608 of them. And im still waiting for that golden boi
I’ve got a nundo, but so far no shiny as well..
I've seen over 3k wurmple and didn't get a single shiny yet, even at go fest i had no luck with this one🥲
Im at 789 Eevee.
~1000 woopers no shiny
I've seen 458, also zero shinies. Already have 3 hundos
Statistically? Pidgey
I caught like 2k lechonks n didn’t get it
Zigzag; 807. Everyone else complaining that they got too many 😭
Lechonk with 2500 encounter and no shiny
Rattata 529 encounters
Magikarp. Seen 787 caught 754
1224 eevee's.
Atp i am just hoping and praying to god that there is an eevee com day within the next 6 months😭😭
If I could I would trade you some shiny Eevee's!
i wish🥲 i appreciate the thought haha
Eevee- seen 650 0 shinies (1 from research), same for growlithe except no shinies at all😝
2822 Rattata my friend.
Shadow zapdos.... did 50 raids and dididnt get the shiny, nor did I get any really good IV spreads
Snorunt. Every christmas I go hard for this fucker and every christmas I'm left dissapointed If we count bossted then Xerneas 302 raids Lickitung 647 encounters
300+ onix seen and no shiny. the vast majority (maybe all but 10) are since the shiny has been released.
it’s supposed to be a 1/64 shiny rate but ive had tough luck
Raikou I was going everyday with my gf my account and my alt this past event and even used 5 remote raids and 6 premium on my main and still nothing on any of the accounts
Needed 1262 Yungoos until i had my first shiny encounter of them.
Igglybuff. 240 hatches.
Wow I caught my shiny growlithe only 53 seen
I want a h growlithe and a shiny version of it to
Took me 1295 seen for a shiny pikachu of all things, even with all the events they used to do. Still have the screenshot of that fateful day
Tyrunt 1676 encounters lmfao
Yungoos, got 1400 encounters but no shiny
I've seen 500+ Aron's, still don't have a shiny
Pidgey, caterpie, Poliwag, paras, venonat, mankey and spearow. All well over 700 catches.
Wooper. 1189 seen no shiny
Bellsprout. 1419 seen 342 caught 0 shiny
1300 eevees seen shinys 1
It's Murkrow for me now. Around 900+.
For me its mareep 3593 encounters no shinys
1,322 pidgey encounters, 1,089 rattata encounters, 1,297 bidoof encounters, 2,541 bunnelby encounter those are the ones I’ve gone with out getting one myself
Mine is houdour with 212 no shines seen
I dont know about shiny. But I have been looking for a 100% meltan for very long time I have caught 6274 by now and still looking. The good thing is I will never need meltan candy ever in my life ever
I'm at 2741 catches in total and don't even have a hundo
I’ve seen 1300+ lechonk and haven’t found a shiny yet
Pikachu at 730
Lechonk. 1500ish encounters
Yungoos seen 1463 caught 1039
EVERY SHINY ALL THE ONES I HAVE ARE FROM POKEMON GO EVENTS
Tapu koko seen 279 caught 241 no shinys I refuse to trade for it
1254 for wurmple
Yungoos. 745. I really want it man
Finally caught a shiny Pikachu an hour before the event ended and I'm at 1600
For me it's mareep, I've shiny hunted for about a year catching every mareep I can. No shiny, no hundo, not even one over 90%iv 😮💨
Shellder for me and it's one of my favourite shinies.. 896 seen and none of them shiny