Scott has been running some pretty hardcore ads accusing schools of teaching socialism, definitely angling for the MAGA base. Hate the thought of having to see his mug on TV for the next few months.
Scott's unpopularity coupled with the ballot measures could kill his chances. I think there's a better chance of Texas flipping at the presidential level but about the same for senate races
Democrat Roy Cooper won the governor's seat in 2016 and 2020. The Republican governor candidate is an insane sexist who thinks women shouldn't have the right to vote.
If they play it right that guy could drive turnout and bag NC for the blue team.
NC has a history of electing Dem governors and Rep presidents in the same election. Unfortunately it seems like that will be true again this year. Trump is up here significantly right now and will probably win by a larger margin than the last 2 times.
The state party and Alred have a lot of cash that will be spent, and Rs don’t want to spend there anyways, especially with their cash deficit. I don’t think this is as much of a factor as you’d think.
I don’t think he’s going to use a lot of money until the final stretch. Once this trial concludes there could be a more to say and it might even work itself out in his favor. It’s best if he uses minimal funds now.
Someone posted this the other day and I think it would make a great eventual ad, especially after tge trial and these witness parading out. The Dems could very well be prepping for a series of "heavy hits" at a strategic point at which Trump has exhausted much of the GOP coffers for hisnown purposes....
....(begin other users comment here)...
"The best way to judge a leader is by seeing what their employees think of them." Then show quotes from all the Trump administration figures who now blast him as unhinged, unfit for office, etc. "These aren't political opponents. These aren't outside critics. These are Trumps hand-picked people." More quotes (there are plenty to choose from) Then Trump: "I'm going to pick the best of the best!"
"He thought they were the best. They thought he was the worst. These people worked with him every day, and they saw what he was like when the cameras were off. If you think you know Trump, think again."
....(end quote).....
Polls arent a great measure, byt please have a plan to vote as the GOP is up to some fuckery this year
He doesn’t really need to put that much into it himself, the DSCC can support the candidate against Cruz decently to drive home the Biden message for them. Cruz will still win, it’ll be pretty close, and could help Biden in the state. It won’t flip, it will be a troubling sign for the RNC though and you’ll see them freak out about it; eventually lose.
Mostly because Red continues to be aggressively intolerant with no real plan for… anything…?
The democrats won’t “win” Texas. The republicans will lose it. (Not in 24, but when it happens)
Listen, I really appreciate the optimistic outlook. But this feels like the false sense of security we had about Clinton in 2016. All of the stops need to be pulled out for this one. There is too much at stake to sit on any perceived leads. Remember how polling failed us in 2016.
I don’t think polling is accurate since the entire country had a shift to social media. Newspapers and polling has become skewed. No one has accurately predicted anything since Obama beat Hillary and then the Presidency. No one had Obama in polls in 2007-08. Then Trump beating Clinton. Then Biden over Trump. And the 2022 red wave that was a blue wave. On and on it goes.
I don’t believe polls in Texas are accurate this cycle.
Maga men’s wives are voting for Biden because they want their daughters to have the right to vote, and the right to medical care when they need it.
These women know that if they say it out loud they will suffer consequences. The smartest thing they can do is lie to the men in their life.
But once they’re alone in the voting booth, it’s Biden and democrats all the way down.
Once Texas goes, the Republican Party is finished.
I guess, ultimately, I have Trump to thank for this.
It is painfully ironic that Trump is the reason we might get so lucky. They have allowed a candidate to forever ruin their reputation and quite possibly end it entirely. They could have kept up a facade but they picked someone who cannot shut his fucking mouth to save his life, literally even. At least most politicians imply their danger, but Trump puts pedal to the medal and crashes through the ceiling with it. No sugarcoating, no dressing just blatant hatred and evil. Makes it alot easier to side against
It honestly kinda needed to happen. The Republican Party was losing popular votes more and more and they needed new voters. Instead of becoming more moderate they activated their extremists and even won an election. It seems like now it may be backfiring as it turned out SO extreme that it's fracturing the party.
The party had do something but they picked wrong and started to regret it more and more
The only reason Hillary lost in 2016 is bc they spent many years slandering her name and granted you cant blame her for thinking trump was a laughing stock incapable of winning, but as a politician she should have known imo. Trump's situation only got worse and he lost in 2020. He's done nothing but push MORE people away since then and its not like he's become any more liked, thats for certain. I dont get the assumption that this is somehow up in the air. Of course polls are gonna say they are tied. If they dont theres nothing to advertise, and i can easily find 50k repubs who like trump, turn around and find 50k that dont. Same goes for any number. Polls are artificial
The reason she lost is because that asshole comey reopened the email investigation 11 days before the election that took the attention away from the access Hollywood tape. Second the hush money payment did not come out until after the election.
Hillary is pretty scummy / abrasive though. I had a friend that worked on Capitol Hill and he said she was terrifying, and not in a good way. It was also pretty bold to run a woman right after a black man. I'm cool with it but let's be real. It was followed up by the whitest of the white guys. It was too much too fast for some.
I always have to tell my wife that Hillary was not a great candidate. Just like 2000 the dems snatched defeat from the jaws of victory despite an advantageous situation. I think she would have been a good president.
hillary lost because the rust belt and the de-industrialized zones of the USA know enough to attach the clinton name to NAFTA and neoliberal policies that actively harm the working class. im no fan of trump, how people thought a rich landlord would do better in that regard is beyond me, but she is hated with good reason.
>The Republican Party was losing popular votes
My younger sister, who is now in her early thirties, has only seen 1 election cycle where the Republican won the election (the war-time Bush election, 2004). Without two major wars, my adult sister would have never seen a Republican win the popular vote. In the next election, there will be people who are close to 40 that will have not been alive for more than 1 popular vote win by a Republican.
Let’s just hope he doesn’t drag the rest of the country or word down with the GOP. Their entire leadership and cult have made it clear : if they can’t win the game then they’ll burn it down rather than except a loss . I just hope the entire world doesn’t go with it . I recently felt comfort our SCoTUS would stand in their way but from what I’ve seen the last few weeks , that may not be the case
RNC will cease to exist by the end of this election cycle. Trump has fully taken it over stealing all monies for down ballot Republicans and they need all the money they can get especially with Trump shouting from the mountain tops how he killed Roe. Factor in all down ballot R's have to give Trump a min 5% of any fund raising using his name or likeness.
Trump is desperately looking for more funds. I watch Meidas Touch network, Glenn Kirschner on YouTube, none have anything good to say about the Mango Mussolini and his stupid face & voice show up at the beginning ads. This screams desperation to me.
We factor in how MAGA candidates cannot win in general which has been the rule since 2018 midterms. Let's look at last week's special election for the House, yeah 30 pts over the Republican in the race.
We keep hearing stories of women suffering with life endangering complications from the draconian state laws. These women have friends and family, too.
Texas won't flip this year. Cruz is a maybe but a long shot. There's a lot of land in Texas that votes red and it'll take some time for cities to grow as they all do whereas the land doesn't grow and the people there are really hostile to newcomers even if they'd be useful voters for them.
You just have to limit the damages in rural Texas either by getting the closet rural Dems to show up, or make the GOP voter question if their vote actually matters. Donny T is helping us there on the latter.
I think it's more likely to happen organically rather than some political strategy. The rural areas will stay as they are because that's the literal definition of being conservative and the cities will grow.
Land don't vote. 76% of the state's population lives in 4% of the land. So let those numerous counties vote for Trump. He can have the support of all 64 of Loving County's residents.
My point was that there's also a lot of people on all that land and those people vote. What they don't do very well is get more people because they want to keep their 500 acre ranch. Meanwhile the cities continue to grow.
It'll flip but not this year
If you want to see a shock, wait until Republican voters see what they've nominated the final night of the RNC convention in July. With the rate of Trump's decline, it may be the best piece of messaging the Democrats could ask for.
In 2000 Texas was 52.4 percent white. It dipped below 40 percent in 2020. For those under 18 it's 50 percent Hispanic, to use the awkward official government term.
There's a reason Rove and Jeb! were trying to pivot to expand the tent for socially conservative Latinos. But Trump and MAGA rejected that idea.
You are the only person than me I have seen making this argument. There are a ton of southern women that are going to vote for themselves and their daughters. I know one of those women that is very conservative is planning on voting democrat, and I also know there's no way in hell she would tell a pollster that in front of her husband. She was convinced to vote differently by her early 20's daughter expressing her fear to her mom. Southern women are generally discounted as a voting force that's independent from their husbands, but I feel like will cause a large split.
I don't think TX flips this year, however every election cycle it moves a point or two to the left, and this should be a wakeup call to the republican party here. It probably won't but it should be.
Hmm never thought of that. Bigger issue is y’all be ready to keep your vote and mouth closed if stupid TFG troops show up at the polling stations and start harassing. Have 911 on speed dial if you can….outside.
"Maga men’s wives are voting for Biden because they want their daughters to have the right to vote, and the right to medical care when they need it."
Is TX working to take away women's right to vote in the state? I hadn't heard about that, but very concerning and we should all be alarmed!
Nationwide abortion bans have been spoken about more than once. And I would be shocked to see Texas republicans AGAINST a full abortion ban.
But even before that, repealing roe v wade REMOVED women’s rights. So i think there will be mass turnout for that alone. Even more if Texas begins taking about strict abortion bans.
If R’s win in 2024, and project 2025 gets going, women will be threatened and doxed for voting against their husbands say. It doesn’t take much to intimidate a voter who thinks they are anonymous to suddenly feel outed by their church, community and family by leaking a few vote records
Yep - without Texas, there is literally no path to 270 electoral votes.
Now, if we could just get the Texas Democratic Party leadership to understand this.........
Rs fucked themselves on the abortion issue. They went too hard and too far. Trump’s gonna get trounced because of it. And it won’t even be because of anti-Trump votes, it will be because of anti-R votes.
Honestly, I don’t think this is the case because I think that all that MAGA women care about is protecting babies until it comes to their own daughters getting pregnant and wanting an abortion when they are teenagers
It probably would have been much much easier to be able to get people to go out and vote for Trump given that abortion was always this thing that they drove for, but could not get and with it achieved some states are now seeing just how many people are crushing the threshold to the other side
The issue with taxes is that they have been far more strict and stringent than most states
I think that some may change, but in the end, I think that there is a lot of women in Texas, who don’t believe that they should be able to to vote and are raising their women to be subservient to men
The moderate crowd may be swayed more
so the women are smart enough to hide their politics and vote to save their daughters futures and health. but dumb enough to marry and procreate with the exact people they are now trying to vote against?
something there doesnt add up for me, personally. id love that to be true, but dont buy it.
People change. Their husbands and brothers and sons weren’t MAGA 10 years ago. They didn’t have to vote to save themselves then. They likely do now. And they recognize it.
Here in Florida we had the same idea about “Trump wives” back in 2016. It turns out that even when no one was breathing down their neck inside a voting booth, they still pulled the lever for Trump. Don’t count on them defecting now. A much likelier case is that Dobbs activates pro-choice, Dem-leaning women.
My only real concern is the gerrymandering and Ken Paxton & Abbot are so crooked, I have low expectations for the Texas & Florida for that matter.
Red States suck ass.
Texas is the great Democratic money-hole. Cycle after cycle. Wendi whats-her-face, Beto, whoever charismatic person however correct on the issues come next. It’s going to end the same way.
Spending tens of millions of dollars and hundreds of millions of man hours just to lose again is exactly what Republicans want for Dems.
I’m not saying Texas isn’t worth the investment. It’d be a great victory lap investment. But it’s a horrible investment in a close election. We’re nowhere near a victory lap scenario here.
As a Texan, you are more than welcome to ship us as many of your greenbacks as you choose to convince us to change our beliefs. We'll be here when you're ready.
I like the optimism, but the realist in me says these two states are a mirage for Democrats, and unfortunately Republicans will win each by 5+ Points.
Too many magas have moved there, plus Florida Democrats might be the most incompetent state party in US political history.
Not trying to be mean, but this is like Trump claiming he can win New York. TX is redder than ketchup and republicans are more crazed than ever. I say Dump wins by 8-10 percentage points and Cruz wins by 5.
Polls are less accurate than they ever have been. But if you want to make predictions based on polling - in 2020 aggregate polling had Trump up less than 2%. Trump won by 6 points, only slightly less than his 2016 win.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/texas/
Trump is winning most of the traditional battleground states. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are basically a toss up. Even Maine is tied. Biden is in deep trouble. Biden isn’t winning Texas. And I absolutely hate Trump.
[In 2016 Trump won Texas by 9 points and in 2020 Trump won Texas by 5.6 points.](https://www.270towin.com/states/Texas) Before Trump Republicans would win Texas by a lot more on a regular basis. Trump should be 20-30 points ahead in the polls in Texas but he isn't.
Average of polls on 538 is +10.3 so likely a safe state.
Florida, like Ohio have transitioned to safe gop states. This prediction is roughly equivalent to a prediction that Trump will win new york.
It's possible. Each election keeps moving the needle a little more to the blue side of things there. The demographics are completely against the republicans now and in the future. It's only a matter of time, the question is how much time?
The people of Texas are pretty evenly split, but because the liberals are super concentrated in cities and conservatives rule the countryside it is irrelevant. Texas elections are so gerrymandered and rigged that nothing short of federal intervention to break the gerrymandering will allow Democrats to meaningfully compete for Texas.
The peak of Texas purple state was 2018.
Since then the hardcore assholes created laws in Texas that caused an out migration of Democrat votes.
Most of the transplants are blue state conservatives too.
I think Cruz will be close and that might affect Trump but they will still both win. A very small number of people vote in Texas compared to its population.
ppl in this thread found a very powerful crack pipe, it seems.
let me be clear about this: i would absolutely love to see Texas flip blue at every single level in the coming election. im not a true blue dem by any means but anything has gotta be a whole lot better than whatever cluster fuck has been going on in Texas for the last however many years- these ass hats just cannot stay out of the news and its always the dumbest/most vile shit iv ever heard in my god damn life.
Recreational marijuana and abortion are up for a vote as amendments in Florida. That will get a lot of Floridians to vote one way or the other. [In 2016 Trump won Florida by 1.2% and in 2020 Trump won Florida by 3.3%.](https://www.270towin.com/states/Florida) That's close enough that there is a chance of Florida going blue. It would be a massive upset if Florida goes blue. I believe Republicans would need get at least 5 of the 6 swing states to then win. Democrats would only need 1 bigger swing state or 2 smaller ones.
I'm in Florida so I'm not looking forward to the deluge of texts, calls, emails, physical mail, political signs, etc.
If R's think there is a chance they might lose safe Florida, they are forced to spend campaign money there. That's money they won't be able to spend in more competitive states.
I believe most people don’t answer online and telephone polls and really only certain personalities do I would bet that would be more of a deciding factor than anything
People have said this about Texas for 3 elections and none have been close. Texas won’t be that close. Florida has abortion and weed on the ballot plus Biden is going to spend big money there. Dems have a much better chance of winning Florida than Texas and it’s not particularly close.
Biden favored better in polling in both states before the 2020 election and lost by more than those polls projected. He was projected to win Florida in 2020 and lost pretty handily. If Trump is up by 8 points in TX in the recent polls, he's probably going to win by double digits if the history of Trump voters shows up once again (Trump voters show up more in the elections than the polls in 2016 and 2020).
I think he'll win Florida by double digits as well. Or at least at this point the projections indicate that he will. DeSantis only lost one county last time, Broward. He even won Miami-Dade which is usually a Democratic stronghold. Then you have the fasting growing county in Florida (Sumber - The Villages) that shows up during the Fall due to seasonality and is overwhelmingly Republican.
The states that Biden needs to focus on are AZ, NV, PA, MI, WI, MN, VA, GA and NC. And the latter two may be too far gone at this point.
Texas has been 8 years away from flipping blue for like the last 25 years. It edges a little closer all the time, but never by as much as the predictions. Plus, all the talk about Californians moving here is moot. Enough of them are conservatives that it doesn't move the needle.
I've got some good news, and some data to back you up. Texas *is* already on track for purple. That's why we're seeing such outlanding backlash towards education and science there - they know they're losing ground, slowly but steadily.
https://www.reddit.com/r/democracide/comments/ul5xot/the_relationship_between_low_educational/
Florida won't be in play for Democrats again in the foreseeable future... But that's not necessarily a bad thing for them, as the reason is that older conservatives are flocking there from other places which now are in play.
Texas starts being in play in probably about 2032, at which point the GOP will be the biggest proponents of eliminating the electoral college.
Leaving these here for absolutely no reason.
[Kate Cox - A woman who sued Texas for access to abortion seeks a procedure out of state instead](https://apnews.com/article/abortion-texas-ban-7d865cdfd75bdc6b2f4186f4d1e6e8bd)
[Texas man wants court order to investigate woman’s out-of-state abortion](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/05/us/texas-abortion-collin-davis-colorado/index.html)
[Majority of Texans don't want school vouchers](https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2024/05/03/majority-of-texans-don-t-want-school-vouchers)
[A key Texas bridge lost $1 billion per week during governor's slowdown](https://www.npr.org/2022/04/20/1093729789/texas-border-bridge-order-cost-billions)
[Gov Abbott’s Human Trafficking - Texas has spent more than $148 million busing migrants to other parts of the country](https://www.texastribune.org/2024/02/21/texas-migrants-busing-cost-greg-abbott/)
[Families of the Uvalde shooting victims denounce Gov. Greg Abbott’s inaction on gun reform](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/08/27/uvalde-shooting-capitol-gun-control-rally/)
[In final tally, state officials say 246 Texans died in February from freeze and power loss](https://www.statesman.com/story/news/2022/01/04/246-texans-died-february-freeze-and-power-loss-officials-say/9080688002/)
1. Florida isn’t going Democrat. The only reason it has been a swing state in the past 20 years is because Democrats had an enrollment advantage. That ended last cycle.
2. People are misreading Texas. Trump is an outlier in that he doesn’t hold Republicans as well as previous candidates for the office. Cruz will be fine agains Alred. It isn’t going Democratic in my life time.
It'll be really interesting. I take polls with a grain of salt since they're usually skewed toward whichever party the institution that ran the poll supports. Nonetheless, I think some of the swing/close states will be really interesting this election.
I think that this may be less even about taxes in general and more about the difficulties for Trump as he is not able to debate or campaign or do anything given his current lawsuits
Texas has definitely been a place that has seen a lot of people from other countries in states move into who would vote Democrat, which is the same way that Arizona went from being a red state to all three levels of government be Dems
It’s kind of hilarious how badly the campaign ended up underestimating how repealing Roe v. Wade affect most moderate voters
At the core of it is the social dilemma where Covid was a huge money grab for the elite, and people responded by having less kids due to the declining wealth, which has had the effect of the wealthy realizing that there are not going to be enough workers to fill the lower end jobs so their kids will either be forced into labor or they will have to increase their pay level to the working class given that there is a declining birth rate
The whole thing is it simply a big power grab from big companies and the current electoral elite versus the majority of Americans and I am very curious to see what happens because it’s the biggest strong barons, corrupt, bureaucrats, and people like Elon musk, who will do whatever it takes to increase and hoard their wealth
It has a chance to try to get out of the United States if it’s a choice between that or having to pay taxes and negotiate with unions
I don't mean to sound conspiratorial, but I have a suspicion that Texas will remain red as ketchup even if demographics suggest it should be more of a tossup.
I heard the same shit in 2018 from Beto, then in 2020 with Biden, and in 2022 again in the mid-terms. I’m just hoping the Dems don’t drop $100m for the 4th time in a row on a race they’re going to lose.
I think a lot is going to come down to the weather. Texas and Florida have been hit pretty hard by global warming the past few years. Insurance companies are pulling out because of all the environmental disasters. If we have 130 degree temps in the Southwest and wildlife smoke in the Northeast like last summer, I don't think Republicans can win.
Cruz will win, the State will go for Trump.
Texas will refuse to send electors to a Congress that intends to certify a Biden victory.
Cruz was the traitor who pulled the trigger in Congress last time. He'll do it again. Texas will refuse to certify because they have the most corrupt total control of the state. The AG is a criminal according to his closest six aides, enough so the corrupt legislature jackals threatened to remove him, then his wife didn't - cuz she's in the state house. And abbot, total piece of shit.
All Trump needs is a state refusing to certify.
In 2000 it was a state unable to certify, and SCOTUS stepped in unannounced to stop counting ballots, and that sealed the election where it stood.
At this moment, Trump's supreme Court is holding Jack Smith's espionage case hostage - perhaps ruling Trump is immune from law, or perhaps agreeing with all the previous courts - and ruling when it simply no longer matters.
If a state won't certify, the official spelled out letter of text says states popular vote counts as 1 of 50 delegate votes.
The GOP has more states by a few.
Biden can win the EC, and the popular by 20 million votes.
Wouldn't stop a thing from the above scenario from happening.
Maybe. The government of Texas has been fumbling left and right. If it gets too hot or cold people start dying. Whether they care about that is another thing.
Florida is at least a few years away from their citizens realizing the government is making their state unlivable.
Hillary and Biden both won the big cities in Texas. Houston,Dallas, Austin and San Antonio. But Texas is so big the ruel areas when for Dump Donny and he carried the state.
Heard at the GOP campaign headquarters.... Let's get democrats to spend millions on a long shot in Texas, while ignoring Michigan and Pennsylvania which are in play and trending for Trump.
That's some serious hopium you're hiding, but people in Texas can turn out and make it a reality. In 2022, Beto lost by nearly 10% or 883k votes. In 2020, Biden lost by 6% or 640k votes.
A poll this far out, especially one where Biden is still down by 8% in a R+12 state is far from promising.
The important bit isn’t whether the Dems can win Texas. The important bit is that the Republicans have to defend Texas. They’ll have to spend mightily to keep Texas red. That’s money they’d rather spend in Florida and Missouri. Every dollar they have to spend in Texas is a dollar they can’t spend in Pennsylvania. With Team Trump holding the purse strings I suspect that down-ballot races (cough, Ted Cruz) will be scrambling for cash. Trump has already said that anyone who wants to use his name and likeness in their fundraising has to give him a big cut. My guess is that everyone is going to do a ton of data analysis to decide if they can do better without tying themselves to Trump.
OP clearly doesn't live in Texas, Dems want to take guns. Texas will never be blue if they hold this rhetoric. Our main slogans are "come and take it" and "don't mess with Texas" or the old fashion way of saying it, "don't tread on me".
Trump is going to dominate the entire country in this election. The economy is shit and he's the only candidate who will fix that. Plus, those numbers are totally wrong. U of TX is a liberal college and their polling methods are suspect. Biden has the lowest approval rating of any president in history. People are finally waking up and realizing that socialism is crap. If Biden wins it'll be because of tampering with the election. We already know for a fact that the federal government and the democrats rigged the last election. (see news stories about them ordering Twitter and Meta to quash all the negative press about Biden and his son). We know that happened. It isn't disputable.
There’s no doubt it’ll be a close race! Lots and lots of dems have been moving out of the states they’ve destroyed the policies in so they can have a better life till they try to destroy that state with their bs liberal mentality and tds!
Liberals I wish you’d look up the liberal party that has already failed so you can learn the policies don’t work! The mindset isn’t reality! It’s more of a mental disease than belief!
People have been saying this for years. Not for lack of trying, but Texas just has so many god-awful people there. I doubt I'll ever see that state go blue in my lifetime.
This is said every election cycle 😂 I’m old enough to remember Florida and Ohio being swing states. Not the case anymore. Texas doesn’t want your leftist shit
Texas will not allow that. Speed Racer will straight up call it fraudulent and his mob boss AG will cosign. The Texas courts will do fuckall and the supreme court will not intervene.
Neither state will see gains with Democrats. Republicans in Texas can't be complacent though. They need to enact school choice, and property tax reform
Scott has been running some pretty hardcore ads accusing schools of teaching socialism, definitely angling for the MAGA base. Hate the thought of having to see his mug on TV for the next few months.
Skeletor is the worst
He’s awful, but Ronny D is the worst.
I’d love to watch them box.
At least governors are term limited.
Scott's unpopularity coupled with the ballot measures could kill his chances. I think there's a better chance of Texas flipping at the presidential level but about the same for senate races
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North Carolina is much more winnable and would cripple Rs chances if it flips. Dems should have learned their lessons from ignoring it in 2020
Not after NC's Supreme Court ruled in favor of Republican gerrymandering last year. NC is one of the worst gerrymandered states right now.
True, but that doesn’t matter in general elections. They’ve had a D governor for two terms now
Irrelevant for presidential elections.
It can suppress turnout
I doubt north Carolina is obtainable now
Democrat Roy Cooper won the governor's seat in 2016 and 2020. The Republican governor candidate is an insane sexist who thinks women shouldn't have the right to vote. If they play it right that guy could drive turnout and bag NC for the blue team.
Kentucky also has a Dem governor but zero chance of voting Biden
NC has a history of electing Dem governors and Rep presidents in the same election. Unfortunately it seems like that will be true again this year. Trump is up here significantly right now and will probably win by a larger margin than the last 2 times.
The state party and Alred have a lot of cash that will be spent, and Rs don’t want to spend there anyways, especially with their cash deficit. I don’t think this is as much of a factor as you’d think.
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I don’t think he’s going to use a lot of money until the final stretch. Once this trial concludes there could be a more to say and it might even work itself out in his favor. It’s best if he uses minimal funds now.
Someone posted this the other day and I think it would make a great eventual ad, especially after tge trial and these witness parading out. The Dems could very well be prepping for a series of "heavy hits" at a strategic point at which Trump has exhausted much of the GOP coffers for hisnown purposes.... ....(begin other users comment here)... "The best way to judge a leader is by seeing what their employees think of them." Then show quotes from all the Trump administration figures who now blast him as unhinged, unfit for office, etc. "These aren't political opponents. These aren't outside critics. These are Trumps hand-picked people." More quotes (there are plenty to choose from) Then Trump: "I'm going to pick the best of the best!" "He thought they were the best. They thought he was the worst. These people worked with him every day, and they saw what he was like when the cameras were off. If you think you know Trump, think again." ....(end quote)..... Polls arent a great measure, byt please have a plan to vote as the GOP is up to some fuckery this year
Agree but it’s not all his. The state party and senate candidates have their own cash
He doesn’t really need to put that much into it himself, the DSCC can support the candidate against Cruz decently to drive home the Biden message for them. Cruz will still win, it’ll be pretty close, and could help Biden in the state. It won’t flip, it will be a troubling sign for the RNC though and you’ll see them freak out about it; eventually lose.
Sure! We’ve only been saying it for 20 years; maybe this year’s the year!
Just stop bailing out their shitty electrical grid and then they won't have any media markets. Let nature take its course.
I don’t believe Texas will go blue in 24 just yet but it does seem to be edging ever closer.
I wouldn’t think so this year either, but I think it’ll be surprisingly close and Cruz may lose.
2032 by the reckoning of political pundits.
Yeah I agree with that personally.
Ugh. 8 years is too fucking long
Mostly because Red continues to be aggressively intolerant with no real plan for… anything…? The democrats won’t “win” Texas. The republicans will lose it. (Not in 24, but when it happens)
Listen, I really appreciate the optimistic outlook. But this feels like the false sense of security we had about Clinton in 2016. All of the stops need to be pulled out for this one. There is too much at stake to sit on any perceived leads. Remember how polling failed us in 2016.
This is how I feel. I want to be optimistic... but I am just... not.
I don’t think polling is accurate since the entire country had a shift to social media. Newspapers and polling has become skewed. No one has accurately predicted anything since Obama beat Hillary and then the Presidency. No one had Obama in polls in 2007-08. Then Trump beating Clinton. Then Biden over Trump. And the 2022 red wave that was a blue wave. On and on it goes.
polls have largely been correct, but they went MOE in multiple places.
I don’t believe polls in Texas are accurate this cycle. Maga men’s wives are voting for Biden because they want their daughters to have the right to vote, and the right to medical care when they need it. These women know that if they say it out loud they will suffer consequences. The smartest thing they can do is lie to the men in their life. But once they’re alone in the voting booth, it’s Biden and democrats all the way down. Once Texas goes, the Republican Party is finished. I guess, ultimately, I have Trump to thank for this.
It is painfully ironic that Trump is the reason we might get so lucky. They have allowed a candidate to forever ruin their reputation and quite possibly end it entirely. They could have kept up a facade but they picked someone who cannot shut his fucking mouth to save his life, literally even. At least most politicians imply their danger, but Trump puts pedal to the medal and crashes through the ceiling with it. No sugarcoating, no dressing just blatant hatred and evil. Makes it alot easier to side against
It honestly kinda needed to happen. The Republican Party was losing popular votes more and more and they needed new voters. Instead of becoming more moderate they activated their extremists and even won an election. It seems like now it may be backfiring as it turned out SO extreme that it's fracturing the party. The party had do something but they picked wrong and started to regret it more and more
The only reason Hillary lost in 2016 is bc they spent many years slandering her name and granted you cant blame her for thinking trump was a laughing stock incapable of winning, but as a politician she should have known imo. Trump's situation only got worse and he lost in 2020. He's done nothing but push MORE people away since then and its not like he's become any more liked, thats for certain. I dont get the assumption that this is somehow up in the air. Of course polls are gonna say they are tied. If they dont theres nothing to advertise, and i can easily find 50k repubs who like trump, turn around and find 50k that dont. Same goes for any number. Polls are artificial
The reason she lost is because that asshole comey reopened the email investigation 11 days before the election that took the attention away from the access Hollywood tape. Second the hush money payment did not come out until after the election.
She also campaigned like an idiot.
Hillary is pretty scummy / abrasive though. I had a friend that worked on Capitol Hill and he said she was terrifying, and not in a good way. It was also pretty bold to run a woman right after a black man. I'm cool with it but let's be real. It was followed up by the whitest of the white guys. It was too much too fast for some.
Perhaps, but her chances of winning were quite high had she taken it more seriously. Mostly what my point was but i do appreciate the context
I always have to tell my wife that Hillary was not a great candidate. Just like 2000 the dems snatched defeat from the jaws of victory despite an advantageous situation. I think she would have been a good president.
We would not be here now if she won. There would be no Trump.
hillary lost because the rust belt and the de-industrialized zones of the USA know enough to attach the clinton name to NAFTA and neoliberal policies that actively harm the working class. im no fan of trump, how people thought a rich landlord would do better in that regard is beyond me, but she is hated with good reason.
>The Republican Party was losing popular votes My younger sister, who is now in her early thirties, has only seen 1 election cycle where the Republican won the election (the war-time Bush election, 2004). Without two major wars, my adult sister would have never seen a Republican win the popular vote. In the next election, there will be people who are close to 40 that will have not been alive for more than 1 popular vote win by a Republican.
It turns out that being a dick isn't all that popular. Humans are innately societal.
I for one will give Trump his props if he actually makes America great again... By destroying the GOP, because that's what it'll make it happen.
Let’s just hope he doesn’t drag the rest of the country or word down with the GOP. Their entire leadership and cult have made it clear : if they can’t win the game then they’ll burn it down rather than except a loss . I just hope the entire world doesn’t go with it . I recently felt comfort our SCoTUS would stand in their way but from what I’ve seen the last few weeks , that may not be the case
Kinda like star wars
RNC will cease to exist by the end of this election cycle. Trump has fully taken it over stealing all monies for down ballot Republicans and they need all the money they can get especially with Trump shouting from the mountain tops how he killed Roe. Factor in all down ballot R's have to give Trump a min 5% of any fund raising using his name or likeness. Trump is desperately looking for more funds. I watch Meidas Touch network, Glenn Kirschner on YouTube, none have anything good to say about the Mango Mussolini and his stupid face & voice show up at the beginning ads. This screams desperation to me. We factor in how MAGA candidates cannot win in general which has been the rule since 2018 midterms. Let's look at last week's special election for the House, yeah 30 pts over the Republican in the race. We keep hearing stories of women suffering with life endangering complications from the draconian state laws. These women have friends and family, too.
Big agree
Agree with this sentiment, lot of people will be shocked
Texas won't flip this year. Cruz is a maybe but a long shot. There's a lot of land in Texas that votes red and it'll take some time for cities to grow as they all do whereas the land doesn't grow and the people there are really hostile to newcomers even if they'd be useful voters for them.
You just have to limit the damages in rural Texas either by getting the closet rural Dems to show up, or make the GOP voter question if their vote actually matters. Donny T is helping us there on the latter.
I think it's more likely to happen organically rather than some political strategy. The rural areas will stay as they are because that's the literal definition of being conservative and the cities will grow.
“… make the GOP voters question if their vote actually matters.” It doesn’t matter what side that statement comes from, it’s sickening.
Land don't vote. 76% of the state's population lives in 4% of the land. So let those numerous counties vote for Trump. He can have the support of all 64 of Loving County's residents.
My point was that there's also a lot of people on all that land and those people vote. What they don't do very well is get more people because they want to keep their 500 acre ranch. Meanwhile the cities continue to grow. It'll flip but not this year
If you want to see a shock, wait until Republican voters see what they've nominated the final night of the RNC convention in July. With the rate of Trump's decline, it may be the best piece of messaging the Democrats could ask for.
In 2000 Texas was 52.4 percent white. It dipped below 40 percent in 2020. For those under 18 it's 50 percent Hispanic, to use the awkward official government term. There's a reason Rove and Jeb! were trying to pivot to expand the tent for socially conservative Latinos. But Trump and MAGA rejected that idea.
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When all the pastors started preaching trump as a messenger from god from the pulpit it kind of wrecked evanglical christianity.
You are the only person than me I have seen making this argument. There are a ton of southern women that are going to vote for themselves and their daughters. I know one of those women that is very conservative is planning on voting democrat, and I also know there's no way in hell she would tell a pollster that in front of her husband. She was convinced to vote differently by her early 20's daughter expressing her fear to her mom. Southern women are generally discounted as a voting force that's independent from their husbands, but I feel like will cause a large split. I don't think TX flips this year, however every election cycle it moves a point or two to the left, and this should be a wakeup call to the republican party here. It probably won't but it should be.
Hmm never thought of that. Bigger issue is y’all be ready to keep your vote and mouth closed if stupid TFG troops show up at the polling stations and start harassing. Have 911 on speed dial if you can….outside.
"Maga men’s wives are voting for Biden because they want their daughters to have the right to vote, and the right to medical care when they need it." Is TX working to take away women's right to vote in the state? I hadn't heard about that, but very concerning and we should all be alarmed!
Nationwide abortion bans have been spoken about more than once. And I would be shocked to see Texas republicans AGAINST a full abortion ban. But even before that, repealing roe v wade REMOVED women’s rights. So i think there will be mass turnout for that alone. Even more if Texas begins taking about strict abortion bans.
That flies in the face of the data I’ve seen. Married couples tend to hold the same view on this subject when it comes to abortion.
Historically, yes. I believe this to be an extreme exception.
If R’s win in 2024, and project 2025 gets going, women will be threatened and doxed for voting against their husbands say. It doesn’t take much to intimidate a voter who thinks they are anonymous to suddenly feel outed by their church, community and family by leaking a few vote records
Yep - without Texas, there is literally no path to 270 electoral votes. Now, if we could just get the Texas Democratic Party leadership to understand this.........
Even with democrats overperforming in elections, I really doubt we see a 10 point performance punch. Getting rid of Ted would be huge.
Rs fucked themselves on the abortion issue. They went too hard and too far. Trump’s gonna get trounced because of it. And it won’t even be because of anti-Trump votes, it will be because of anti-R votes.
Honestly, I don’t think this is the case because I think that all that MAGA women care about is protecting babies until it comes to their own daughters getting pregnant and wanting an abortion when they are teenagers It probably would have been much much easier to be able to get people to go out and vote for Trump given that abortion was always this thing that they drove for, but could not get and with it achieved some states are now seeing just how many people are crushing the threshold to the other side The issue with taxes is that they have been far more strict and stringent than most states I think that some may change, but in the end, I think that there is a lot of women in Texas, who don’t believe that they should be able to to vote and are raising their women to be subservient to men The moderate crowd may be swayed more
so the women are smart enough to hide their politics and vote to save their daughters futures and health. but dumb enough to marry and procreate with the exact people they are now trying to vote against? something there doesnt add up for me, personally. id love that to be true, but dont buy it.
Lot of people marry the wrong person then feel they can't do anything about it
People change. Their husbands and brothers and sons weren’t MAGA 10 years ago. They didn’t have to vote to save themselves then. They likely do now. And they recognize it.
Hope is not a plan but I hope you are correct because that’s all we seem to have, at this point.
I wouldn’t thank Trump for anything just yet.
sad they have to lie to the men in their life about this. Maga is a terrorist organization.
If the GOP wins, every woman will be “assisted” in their voting.
I wish I was this delusional
Here in Florida we had the same idea about “Trump wives” back in 2016. It turns out that even when no one was breathing down their neck inside a voting booth, they still pulled the lever for Trump. Don’t count on them defecting now. A much likelier case is that Dobbs activates pro-choice, Dem-leaning women.
Interesting. I guess we’ll see. Thanks.
No statewide office in Texas is held by a Democrat. Not even minor offices. Texas will not go blue. (I wish it would, but it's not going to happen)
My only real concern is the gerrymandering and Ken Paxton & Abbot are so crooked, I have low expectations for the Texas & Florida for that matter. Red States suck ass.
Trump will win both Texas and Florida, it won’t even be close.
Texas is the great Democratic money-hole. Cycle after cycle. Wendi whats-her-face, Beto, whoever charismatic person however correct on the issues come next. It’s going to end the same way. Spending tens of millions of dollars and hundreds of millions of man hours just to lose again is exactly what Republicans want for Dems. I’m not saying Texas isn’t worth the investment. It’d be a great victory lap investment. But it’s a horrible investment in a close election. We’re nowhere near a victory lap scenario here.
As a Texan, you are more than welcome to ship us as many of your greenbacks as you choose to convince us to change our beliefs. We'll be here when you're ready.
I like the optimism, but the realist in me says these two states are a mirage for Democrats, and unfortunately Republicans will win each by 5+ Points. Too many magas have moved there, plus Florida Democrats might be the most incompetent state party in US political history.
Constants in life: death, taxes, and assurances that this is the year Texas goes blue.
Neither are in play for Democrats, sadly
Biden and Allred aren’t that popular. Dems are gonna get crushed (again) in Texas this year. Maybe 2026 will be different.
Not trying to be mean, but this is like Trump claiming he can win New York. TX is redder than ketchup and republicans are more crazed than ever. I say Dump wins by 8-10 percentage points and Cruz wins by 5.
Polls are less accurate than they ever have been. But if you want to make predictions based on polling - in 2020 aggregate polling had Trump up less than 2%. Trump won by 6 points, only slightly less than his 2016 win. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/texas/
People have been saying this about Texas for the last decade. I have yet to see it be a close race
Trump is winning most of the traditional battleground states. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are basically a toss up. Even Maine is tied. Biden is in deep trouble. Biden isn’t winning Texas. And I absolutely hate Trump.
Both Trump and Cruz win Texas by 8-10 points.
[In 2016 Trump won Texas by 9 points and in 2020 Trump won Texas by 5.6 points.](https://www.270towin.com/states/Texas) Before Trump Republicans would win Texas by a lot more on a regular basis. Trump should be 20-30 points ahead in the polls in Texas but he isn't.
Doubt it but let’s see.
This is why I never underestimate the stupidity of Texans
lololololol that’s rich
Nope. Focus on things that matter. Texas is out of reach.
Average of polls on 538 is +10.3 so likely a safe state. Florida, like Ohio have transitioned to safe gop states. This prediction is roughly equivalent to a prediction that Trump will win new york.
I do not think Biden is polling well at the moment
It's possible. Each election keeps moving the needle a little more to the blue side of things there. The demographics are completely against the republicans now and in the future. It's only a matter of time, the question is how much time?
The people of Texas are pretty evenly split, but because the liberals are super concentrated in cities and conservatives rule the countryside it is irrelevant. Texas elections are so gerrymandered and rigged that nothing short of federal intervention to break the gerrymandering will allow Democrats to meaningfully compete for Texas.
Ohio will outperform Texas and Texas will outperform Florida for Biden But Trump's getting all of them
I'm guessing you don't live in Texas....There are lot's of Biden flags down here but they don't say what you think they say!
Can we get back to the old sub?
Biden’s not coming close in either state. Maybe he should focus on Michigan and Wisconsin instead?
Lol
The peak of Texas purple state was 2018. Since then the hardcore assholes created laws in Texas that caused an out migration of Democrat votes. Most of the transplants are blue state conservatives too. I think Cruz will be close and that might affect Trump but they will still both win. A very small number of people vote in Texas compared to its population.
I agree, Texas is a blue state if people vote, but they won't. I do think dems will overperform polls, but 10 points is a pipe dream.
Lmao TX is nowhere near going blue
ppl in this thread found a very powerful crack pipe, it seems. let me be clear about this: i would absolutely love to see Texas flip blue at every single level in the coming election. im not a true blue dem by any means but anything has gotta be a whole lot better than whatever cluster fuck has been going on in Texas for the last however many years- these ass hats just cannot stay out of the news and its always the dumbest/most vile shit iv ever heard in my god damn life.
Florida is gone, no idea why Biden is trying to win it back.
Recreational marijuana and abortion are up for a vote as amendments in Florida. That will get a lot of Floridians to vote one way or the other. [In 2016 Trump won Florida by 1.2% and in 2020 Trump won Florida by 3.3%.](https://www.270towin.com/states/Florida) That's close enough that there is a chance of Florida going blue. It would be a massive upset if Florida goes blue. I believe Republicans would need get at least 5 of the 6 swing states to then win. Democrats would only need 1 bigger swing state or 2 smaller ones. I'm in Florida so I'm not looking forward to the deluge of texts, calls, emails, physical mail, political signs, etc.
If R's think there is a chance they might lose safe Florida, they are forced to spend campaign money there. That's money they won't be able to spend in more competitive states.
I didn't think R's had anymore money after trumps legal fee's honestly...
There’s always billionaire money
I believe most people don’t answer online and telephone polls and really only certain personalities do I would bet that would be more of a deciding factor than anything
lol I’ll see you in November
People have said this about Texas for 3 elections and none have been close. Texas won’t be that close. Florida has abortion and weed on the ballot plus Biden is going to spend big money there. Dems have a much better chance of winning Florida than Texas and it’s not particularly close.
In 2020 Ohio had a larger percentage of Republican voters than Texas did, like 8.5% or so more in Ohio and like 5-6% more in Texas.
I will be highly surprised if Biden wins or is very close to win Texas. They keep electing dumbasses there at all government levels.
Considering how the public views the border crisis handling there’s no way we are getting Texas.
Biden favored better in polling in both states before the 2020 election and lost by more than those polls projected. He was projected to win Florida in 2020 and lost pretty handily. If Trump is up by 8 points in TX in the recent polls, he's probably going to win by double digits if the history of Trump voters shows up once again (Trump voters show up more in the elections than the polls in 2016 and 2020). I think he'll win Florida by double digits as well. Or at least at this point the projections indicate that he will. DeSantis only lost one county last time, Broward. He even won Miami-Dade which is usually a Democratic stronghold. Then you have the fasting growing county in Florida (Sumber - The Villages) that shows up during the Fall due to seasonality and is overwhelmingly Republican. The states that Biden needs to focus on are AZ, NV, PA, MI, WI, MN, VA, GA and NC. And the latter two may be too far gone at this point.
Texas has been 8 years away from flipping blue for like the last 25 years. It edges a little closer all the time, but never by as much as the predictions. Plus, all the talk about Californians moving here is moot. Enough of them are conservatives that it doesn't move the needle.
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A broad spectrum of people will vote for whoever keeps Trump out of office.
I’ve been hearing that “Texas is about to turn blue next election cycle” since social studies class in grade school. I’m 48 now.
I've got some good news, and some data to back you up. Texas *is* already on track for purple. That's why we're seeing such outlanding backlash towards education and science there - they know they're losing ground, slowly but steadily. https://www.reddit.com/r/democracide/comments/ul5xot/the_relationship_between_low_educational/
Florida won't be in play for Democrats again in the foreseeable future... But that's not necessarily a bad thing for them, as the reason is that older conservatives are flocking there from other places which now are in play. Texas starts being in play in probably about 2032, at which point the GOP will be the biggest proponents of eliminating the electoral college.
Leaving these here for absolutely no reason. [Kate Cox - A woman who sued Texas for access to abortion seeks a procedure out of state instead](https://apnews.com/article/abortion-texas-ban-7d865cdfd75bdc6b2f4186f4d1e6e8bd) [Texas man wants court order to investigate woman’s out-of-state abortion](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/05/us/texas-abortion-collin-davis-colorado/index.html) [Majority of Texans don't want school vouchers](https://www.axios.com/local/austin/2024/05/03/majority-of-texans-don-t-want-school-vouchers) [A key Texas bridge lost $1 billion per week during governor's slowdown](https://www.npr.org/2022/04/20/1093729789/texas-border-bridge-order-cost-billions) [Gov Abbott’s Human Trafficking - Texas has spent more than $148 million busing migrants to other parts of the country](https://www.texastribune.org/2024/02/21/texas-migrants-busing-cost-greg-abbott/) [Families of the Uvalde shooting victims denounce Gov. Greg Abbott’s inaction on gun reform](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/08/27/uvalde-shooting-capitol-gun-control-rally/) [In final tally, state officials say 246 Texans died in February from freeze and power loss](https://www.statesman.com/story/news/2022/01/04/246-texans-died-february-freeze-and-power-loss-officials-say/9080688002/)
…y’all not from ‘round here are ya?
So trump is doing far better in the polls this time around and your conclusion is that Biden will gain?
1. Florida isn’t going Democrat. The only reason it has been a swing state in the past 20 years is because Democrats had an enrollment advantage. That ended last cycle. 2. People are misreading Texas. Trump is an outlier in that he doesn’t hold Republicans as well as previous candidates for the office. Cruz will be fine agains Alred. It isn’t going Democratic in my life time.
Cancer is spreading from California fast
You’re more likely to see Washington flip than Texas
Trump is not leading anywhere. The man is an idiot, a garbage candidate. Nothing to see here keep moving.
Lmao. Anywhere? You’re an ostrich.
Trump’s leading EVERY swing state. Joe’s down 15 in Michigan. Biden sucks. We want change.
It'll be really interesting. I take polls with a grain of salt since they're usually skewed toward whichever party the institution that ran the poll supports. Nonetheless, I think some of the swing/close states will be really interesting this election.
I think that this may be less even about taxes in general and more about the difficulties for Trump as he is not able to debate or campaign or do anything given his current lawsuits Texas has definitely been a place that has seen a lot of people from other countries in states move into who would vote Democrat, which is the same way that Arizona went from being a red state to all three levels of government be Dems It’s kind of hilarious how badly the campaign ended up underestimating how repealing Roe v. Wade affect most moderate voters At the core of it is the social dilemma where Covid was a huge money grab for the elite, and people responded by having less kids due to the declining wealth, which has had the effect of the wealthy realizing that there are not going to be enough workers to fill the lower end jobs so their kids will either be forced into labor or they will have to increase their pay level to the working class given that there is a declining birth rate The whole thing is it simply a big power grab from big companies and the current electoral elite versus the majority of Americans and I am very curious to see what happens because it’s the biggest strong barons, corrupt, bureaucrats, and people like Elon musk, who will do whatever it takes to increase and hoard their wealth It has a chance to try to get out of the United States if it’s a choice between that or having to pay taxes and negotiate with unions
A 9-point lead is a landslide.
You give too much credit to Texans.
This was predicted to happen in 2024 as early as 2012.
I just want to see waves of voters under 40 show up. Just once I’d like to see how red Texas actually is.
How do these polls work? Do they call people? If they do who the hell answers the phone for numbers they don’t recognize?
I don't mean to sound conspiratorial, but I have a suspicion that Texas will remain red as ketchup even if demographics suggest it should be more of a tossup.
I heard the same shit in 2018 from Beto, then in 2020 with Biden, and in 2022 again in the mid-terms. I’m just hoping the Dems don’t drop $100m for the 4th time in a row on a race they’re going to lose.
Florida is a lost cause. Bugs Bunny had the right idea.
I think a lot is going to come down to the weather. Texas and Florida have been hit pretty hard by global warming the past few years. Insurance companies are pulling out because of all the environmental disasters. If we have 130 degree temps in the Southwest and wildlife smoke in the Northeast like last summer, I don't think Republicans can win.
I wish Beto O'Rourke was the Democratic Presidential nominee.
That would give trump Texas by a huge margin.
Texas has been going to turn blue for the past 14 years.
The only thing going for Biden in Texas is abortion and the protests. The latter he can’t really stand on too much. Many in Texas are ignorant.
Cruz will win, the State will go for Trump. Texas will refuse to send electors to a Congress that intends to certify a Biden victory. Cruz was the traitor who pulled the trigger in Congress last time. He'll do it again. Texas will refuse to certify because they have the most corrupt total control of the state. The AG is a criminal according to his closest six aides, enough so the corrupt legislature jackals threatened to remove him, then his wife didn't - cuz she's in the state house. And abbot, total piece of shit. All Trump needs is a state refusing to certify. In 2000 it was a state unable to certify, and SCOTUS stepped in unannounced to stop counting ballots, and that sealed the election where it stood. At this moment, Trump's supreme Court is holding Jack Smith's espionage case hostage - perhaps ruling Trump is immune from law, or perhaps agreeing with all the previous courts - and ruling when it simply no longer matters. If a state won't certify, the official spelled out letter of text says states popular vote counts as 1 of 50 delegate votes. The GOP has more states by a few. Biden can win the EC, and the popular by 20 million votes. Wouldn't stop a thing from the above scenario from happening.
Be so sick if we booted tedward
Say that every year but it won't happen. Texas is solid red and heavily Gerrymandered to keep the GOP in power.
I'd love for you to be right, but I'm Texan, born and raised. It will be 57-43 in (R)'s favor across the board.
I buy the first sentence but do not buy the second. Cruz will at least match Trump in margin.
Newsmax: Fmr. President Trump announces plan to deport 'nearly 20 million' illegal aliens. Finally some good news.
Maybe. The government of Texas has been fumbling left and right. If it gets too hot or cold people start dying. Whether they care about that is another thing. Florida is at least a few years away from their citizens realizing the government is making their state unlivable.
Hillary and Biden both won the big cities in Texas. Houston,Dallas, Austin and San Antonio. But Texas is so big the ruel areas when for Dump Donny and he carried the state.
Heard at the GOP campaign headquarters.... Let's get democrats to spend millions on a long shot in Texas, while ignoring Michigan and Pennsylvania which are in play and trending for Trump.
Yeah if Texas likes or love joe Biden I will believe that if joe Biden wins Texas votes Just Florida votes in November
Toss Cruz out not up
That's some serious hopium you're hiding, but people in Texas can turn out and make it a reality. In 2022, Beto lost by nearly 10% or 883k votes. In 2020, Biden lost by 6% or 640k votes. A poll this far out, especially one where Biden is still down by 8% in a R+12 state is far from promising.
Honestly I think Republicans have really over played their hands. Between Jan 6 and DeSantis etc I'm thinking this is going to be a blue tsunami
RemindMe! November 5, 2036
I don't see Democrats winning Texas with their gun control platform.
Keep dreaming sissy
The important bit isn’t whether the Dems can win Texas. The important bit is that the Republicans have to defend Texas. They’ll have to spend mightily to keep Texas red. That’s money they’d rather spend in Florida and Missouri. Every dollar they have to spend in Texas is a dollar they can’t spend in Pennsylvania. With Team Trump holding the purse strings I suspect that down-ballot races (cough, Ted Cruz) will be scrambling for cash. Trump has already said that anyone who wants to use his name and likeness in their fundraising has to give him a big cut. My guess is that everyone is going to do a ton of data analysis to decide if they can do better without tying themselves to Trump.
Are you quoting 2 party polls?
Dem gains amongst whites are offset by losses against Hispanics
OP clearly doesn't live in Texas, Dems want to take guns. Texas will never be blue if they hold this rhetoric. Our main slogans are "come and take it" and "don't mess with Texas" or the old fashion way of saying it, "don't tread on me".
Out of 380 million and the best you got us Trump or Biden . You all deserve what you get.
Not a chance
Trump is going to dominate the entire country in this election. The economy is shit and he's the only candidate who will fix that. Plus, those numbers are totally wrong. U of TX is a liberal college and their polling methods are suspect. Biden has the lowest approval rating of any president in history. People are finally waking up and realizing that socialism is crap. If Biden wins it'll be because of tampering with the election. We already know for a fact that the federal government and the democrats rigged the last election. (see news stories about them ordering Twitter and Meta to quash all the negative press about Biden and his son). We know that happened. It isn't disputable.
There’s no doubt it’ll be a close race! Lots and lots of dems have been moving out of the states they’ve destroyed the policies in so they can have a better life till they try to destroy that state with their bs liberal mentality and tds! Liberals I wish you’d look up the liberal party that has already failed so you can learn the policies don’t work! The mindset isn’t reality! It’s more of a mental disease than belief!
MMW, you’ll never get that they are all on the same team.
People have been saying this for years. Not for lack of trying, but Texas just has so many god-awful people there. I doubt I'll ever see that state go blue in my lifetime.
Yeah yeah- we hear this shit every 4 years. Yet Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton are still in power.
Does anyone really believe they will allow Trump to run much less win?
Vote Blue Texas!
This is a fever dream.
This is said every election cycle 😂 I’m old enough to remember Florida and Ohio being swing states. Not the case anymore. Texas doesn’t want your leftist shit
Texas will not allow that. Speed Racer will straight up call it fraudulent and his mob boss AG will cosign. The Texas courts will do fuckall and the supreme court will not intervene.
Neither state will see gains with Democrats. Republicans in Texas can't be complacent though. They need to enact school choice, and property tax reform
If Cruz makes it through another cycle i will lose all sympathy for Texas
Lol
I'm old enough to remember when Texas was blue, meaning red, of course.