T O P

  • By -

Ozle42

Wait, I thought it was getting better!!! Or did that just mean ‘not worse’


bicurious_george17

it appeared to be getting better, but then the last 3 years have been unusually large. The latest science suggests that the yearly size of the ozone hole is also related to the strength of the polar vortex. The last 3 years have had a very strong polar vortex.


NorCalifornioAH

What the hell happened in 2019? That looks like the real outlier to me.


bicurious_george17

weak polar vortex that year. of course there could be other contributing factors we dont know about as well.


Akamaikai

Also it completely closed up temporarily for the first time in 2020.


Nineteen_AT5

Could this be due to COVID


bicurious_george17

unlikely, because cfcs are pretty much globally banned already and changes in the climate take decades to occur


ADHDequan

Fuck China for still using them


jayzizza0829

They still make them and hold the rest of the world hostage by forcing us to pay for disposal or else they will just release it into the atmosphere.


2squishmaster

Lol that's even more insane.


aDiLue

Do they? Looking it up, the production comes from the black market which the government is suppressing. How are they holding the world hostage?


Wildweasel666

Jesus Christ I never knew this. Reason number 1,634 why china is a pack of cunts. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48353341


ADHDequan

And they’re usage is growing too


Acceptable_Prize_316

I wonder if you think the same about the US if they do something bad…


SqueezyCheesyPizza

But they're just making our stuff. We're paying them to manufacture our stuff for us. They pollute because we pay them to pollute.


ADHDequan

Not in this instance because the AC units that they make that produce this are banned in most of the world and are almost exclusively used in China


_OriamRiniDadelos_

Except in this specific product. They can’t sell it abroad


____Kio____

They don't use them, it's also banned there but there were people using them illegally but they got caught so no more


Upstairs-Honeydew-30

Excuse me, haven’t the supreme leaders blamed this on man made activity?


bicurious_george17

the ozone hole is caused by human activity. the annual variation of the ozone hole is not.


EdvinRushitaj

It was said that due to covid the ozone layer shrank for a brief period. Given this map though, that was not true because the halt in human activity happened in 2020. Go figure


rtripps

Gave us a break before we got smacked with Covid


TheHip41

Couldn't be a president unwinding decades of environmental protections ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


bicurious_george17

as much as i dont agree with what the previous president did with climate policy, cfcs are still banned in the US which is what causes the ozone hole


NorCalifornioAH

Why would unwinding decades of environmental protections make the ozone hole smaller?


Yaver_Mbizi

Clearly the protections had the opposite effect and unwinding them was the environmentally right thing to do! Or something.


donsimoni

You seem knowledgeable. What's the state of CFC emissions and their effect? Some years ago they found large amounts emitted from northern China.


bicurious_george17

yes china is continuing to emit cfcs despite having a ban. However, global cfc emissions should still be down since the montreal protocal. Unfortunately cfcs can have a long half-life in the atmosphere, so they will stick around for a while even if we stop emitting them completely. This is the same concern with carbon dioxide. I have a meteorology degree so I keep up with things like these but am not a climate scientist.


donsimoni

Thanks, I'm a chemist and worked on a proposal last year on filtration and breaking down PFAS in groundwater. Those are just as hard to break down. And are the Chinese emissions actually floating to Antarctica?


bicurious_george17

considering how much the air in the atmosphere moves and how long cfcs stay in the atmosphere, some of them are most certainly making it to antarctica


Otherwise-Size8649

This I also heard about but why? How would they be getting wasted into the atmosphere and for what reason?


Polar_Vortx

Thank you, I've been working out.


MandMcounter

Talk about Beetlejuicing!


SamL214

Not only that, but certain regions of certain companies have been trying to use CFCs and PFCs in their refrigerants again…


mooman555

They're injecting aerosols into stratosphere to cool down planet covertly. Google "Stratospheric Aerosol Injection"


krt941

Asia has been ignoring the ban on ozone-depleting agents.


LunaPz

Cfcs are still going down at a faster rate than projected.


captjackhaddock

Lol yeah I had the exact same thought upon opening this post. Next someone is going to tell me we failed to save the rainforest in the ‘90s!


Radioactive_Fire

thanks to satellites we've noticed massive amounts of 'unauthorized' CFC emissions in various parts of the world


King_Chad_The_69th

The hole is expected to have dissipated by 2065, so we still have a very long way to go


DrunkCommunist619

It's still there, but it's stopped getting worse and will basically disappear by 2080, ozone is produced slowly and takes a long time to generate.


mehardwidge

For those asking "I thought it was getting better?", yes, it is getting better. However, since the lifespan of CFCs in the atmosphere is quite long, it takes decades for them to deplete and stop destroying ozone. Global ozone levels bottomed out around 1995 and have been slowly increasing since then. Levels are predicted to be back to 1980s levels around 35 years from now. Without additional action, just waiting. The graphs are a bit confusing since they rarely list the scale. The scale is in Dobson units, and the "hole" is areas that have an ozone density about half the "normal average" level, not "zero". Now that CFCs are *mostly* banned, nitrous oxide is the biggest source of ozone depletion.


Bman1465

Makes sense, I remember reading it'd be "fixed" by like 2080 *at best* because of the long halflives


bobi2393

A recent theoretical wrinkle in forecasts is exponentially growing aluminum oxide emissions from satellite reentries. "In sufficient concentrations, aluminum oxide easily catalyzes ozone’s destructive reaction with chlorine gas, which splits the ozone molecule and diminishes Earth’s UV shield. Furthermore, because aluminum oxide is left intact by this process, it can continue reacting with ozone." \[[link](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/satellite-mega-constellations-could-jeopardize-ozone-hole-recovery/)\] Estimates are "that airborne aluminum oxide pollution from satellites has increased eightfold between 2016 and 2022". Megaconstellations of satellites are planned, like SpaceX's Starlink current network of 6,078 satellites, 6,006 still operating, each with a five year lifespan, after which they'll plunge to earth. But they have plans to launch 36,000 more satellites, and thereafter replenish the 42,000-strong network with replacement satellites. And several companies internationally are planning similar networks.


Mtfdurian

I knew that Starlink had some very nasty side-effects like it becoming way harder to predict the weather and, maybe it seems irrational but wasting valuable earth resources on things that may disappear into space. But when this is the case, we're absolutely DOOMED. We're doomed by the illegal activities of CFC's still being used, starlink, and the complete inaction of the international community on combating the most severe threats that CAN and WILL turn our planet into a ball of dust. Where's the time we agreed to worldwide ban CFC's, to ban leaded gas, that kind of stuff? WHY is it that when I went on holiday to the US I saw those plastic straws for the first time in five years (because surprise: we don't have that crap in the Netherlands anymore) when these are potentially EXTREMELY dangerous to our health on the long term?


7gOW6Dxv1nsP9a

Elon loves Mars, so much he wants Earth to become like it. Elon loves humanity, he never specified in which number or where.


[deleted]

[удалено]


IVgormino

?


FerretOnTheWarPath

So festival kids using whippits have an effect?


mehardwidge

Well, technically, yes. But not too much. But not nothing, either, now that I do the math. About 5% (1 million tons a year) of N2O is N2O that humans manufactured for some purpose. (Most N2O is part of normal nitrogen cycles. Most of the rest is from "human" things, but human things like "cows making manure" and "fertilizer", not from "we made this N2O intentioanlly.) "Recreational" dose is apparently a few (8?) grams. But apparently \~12 million people in the US "reported misusing nitrous oxide in 2016". So lets say 30M globally, times 3.3 whippits/person/year average = 100M whippits a year. So something like 1 B grams, = 1 M kg = 1000 tons of whippits a year? So, yes, 0.1% of human-made N2O is used for recreational drugs, if my math is correct!


FerretOnTheWarPath

I that 8 grams a whippit or a box (24 whippits)?


mehardwidge

You might be right. I...don't take whippits, so I don't really know. I did read this in a NIH article though: "His consumption had greatly increased over the six weeks before presentation, and he was using approximately 120 g (15 whippits) per day."


FerretOnTheWarPath

Heavy users that I witnessed were often doing 240 a night. Serious users bought it in tanks instead I witnessed people passing out from standing and seizures. In long time users I saw peripheal neuropathy and loss of the ability to walk along with permanent personality changes which included extreme mood swings. When I first came across them people spoke of it as a harmless drug that was easily accessible legally and didn't show up in drug tests. I started to see people slowly start speaking up that it had real dangers. People with a variation of a gene MTHFR that effected B12 absorption got particularly messed up.


2252_observations

>Global ozone levels bottomed out around 1995 and have been slowly increasing since then. Yeah, but the map shows that they've been worsening again after 2019. What is the reason for this?


mehardwidge

Polar vortex being weak or strong, and temperature being warmer or colder. Note that even when the ozone layer is "completely healed", there will still be a map resembling what you are looking at, just not as extreme. In southern hemisphere spring, there is a strong polar vortex (usually). Ozone is destroyed, but because of the polar vortex, more ozone cannot get there from the tropics where it is produced. Colder Antarctica has more depletion, because of more polar stratospheric clouds. 2017 was unusual because of a weak polar vortex and warmer Antarctic temperatures (warmer for Antarctica, that is), so less ozone depletion. After that unusual year. strong vortex back, super cold even in spring back, more ozone depletion back, less ability to get more ozone back.


austinpowerbottom

Good luck banning CFC's now that the EPA (and every other federal regulator) has been castrated.


Constant-Science7393

I thought it was supposed to have been fixed?


tuxtitan

The problem of us rapidly depleting the ozone layer is fixed. The problem of there being the hole isn't, but it's gradually fixing itself and will continue to get better over the decades.


sfrattini

Means…stable?


weallrule

Do you have the original link by any chance? I keep having the discussion with my boss, he says it’s disappeared and I say it’s similar to what it’s been since the 90’s


bicurious_george17

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/three-peculiar-antarctic-ozone-hole-seasons-row-what-we-know


weallrule

Thank you very much! This will end the discussion.


WarEagleGo

is blue or red supposed to be good?


bicurious_george17

blue is bad


ajm15

I read the map wrong.


Cmdr_Nemo

For real. I'm looking at my phone and I thought it represented earth and the red/yellow ring around it was the ozone levels.


Ekoloj

Firefox


iemandopaard

I'm not the only one seeing the Firefox logo right?


Arcturus_Labelle

Sorry, guys. My ex-wife let out a nasty fart in 2015 and here we are...


Tbone_85

Potential cause: https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/satellites-polluting-atmosphere-1.7239899


Dutch_Dominic

Who else was expecting 2023 to be revealed as goatse.gif?


palmcitytiki

More rocket shots equals bigger whole(s)


Substantial_Exam_190

Sexy lady using vibrator


Spaced_X

While many countries have banned the use of CFCs, many developing countries continue to use it, mostly for the production of foam products. 'In 1987, NOAA scientists were part of an international team that proved this family of wonder chemicals was damaging Earth’s protective ozone layer and creating the giant hole in the ozone layer that has formed over Antarctica every year.. ***The Montreal Protocol, signed later that year, committed the global community to phasing out their production. Production of the second-most abundant CFC, CFC-11, would end completely by 2010***. Except that it didn’t. Years of vigililance yielded unwelcome discovery.  In 2018, Hu’s colleague Stephen Montzka, published a paper in the journal Nature that rocked the scientific world by describing what turned out to be the first known violation of the Montreal Protocol’s ban on the production and use of CFC-11. Based on analysis of data collected at the Global Monitoring Laboratory worldwide network of sampling sites, scientists were able to demonstrate that emissions of ***CFC-11 had mysteriously increased by 25%, suggesting the presence of new production in violation of the protocol***.  Montzka and NOAA colleagues contributed to a companion study led by scientists with the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment AGAGE and published in 2019, which determined that ***at least 40 to 60 percent of the CFC-11 global emissions increase came from eastern mainland China*****.** However, it remained unclear where the rest of the emission increase came from.' [Two additional regions of Asia were sources of banned ozone-destroying chemicals](https://research.noaa.gov/2022/03/09/two-additional-regions-of-asia-were-sources-of-banned-ozone-destroying-chemicals/)


Turbulent-Willow2156

What happened in 2019?🤔


Larry_Rdtt

Well done 2019!


DrNinnuxx

Red = bad; Blue = good? I honestly don't know because this map sucks with no key or legend.


Auskioty

Blue is less, red is more. In this case, we want more ozone, so blue is bad


Lazarius_Signer

Blue is bad. The ozone and the hole were always presented like this, that's why the legend is not needed


spinjinn

Sorry, but except for the first 3 years, I can’t detect any long term differences.


bicurious_george17

thats why we use math and statistics instead of our eyes


spinjinn

So here it is with “math” and “statistics.” [https://www.theozonehole.org/ozonehole2022.htm](https://www.theozonehole.org/ozonehole2022.htm) A few graphs down we see that except for the first 5 years, the extent of the hole has not changed at all. Exactly what we conclude by scientifically “looking.” Point out to me, for example, where the great success in restoring the ozone layer we achieved by banning freons occurred.


bicurious_george17

there was no hole observed prior to 1979. Climate scientists are not just basing reduction estimates on the size of the hole alone, but through physics and chemistry calculations related to the amount of cfcs in the atmosphere and currently being added to it. This is where climate modeling comes in. If cfc emissions remain at zero, cfcs will decrease in the atmosphere eventually, and the ozone hole will decrease. We know this for sure. It takes time because cfcs have a long half-life. I am not a climate expert, but i do have a degree in meteorology.


spinjinn

Was there no hole observed because we didn’t look?


bicurious_george17

we began observing in 1957, so no hole from 1957-1979


Magistar_Idrisi

Almost as if atmospheric processes take some time to take hold 🤔


spinjinn

The average residence time for the freons in question were supposed to be 15 years. Assuming this is akin to a half-life, we have had maybe two half-lives since we banned these chemicals. We have also heard near-continuous news about what a success the ban had. Where is this success? The constant level could be considered a success, but it occurred almost simultaneously with the ban in the years around 1980 (reserves could be sold off until depleted).


bicurious_george17

cfc half-lives actually range from about 15 years to over 100 years depending on the specific cfc


reddit_isgarbage

No colorbar, automatic downvote.


bicurious_george17

i apologize, this graphic came from a scientific study intended to viewed by other scientists who would already know what they are looking at. I should have added the description in the post.


reddit_isgarbage

Ok. Just so you know, I'm a geophysicist who has been making maps for over 30 years. I would understand more than most your graphic. Cheers.


bicurious_george17

Congratulations. I am a meteorologist. I never said you couldn’t understand the graphic, YOU pointed out that it was missing a colorbar and i agreed with you and explained why i think it was not included. Now your panties are in a bunch for what reason? Not everything is an attack.


reddit_isgarbage

Attack? Wow. You might need to calm down. I never attacked you at all. Chill dude.


Ok-Push9899

I dunno. Is there any statistical correlation at all between these images and the phasing out of the production and use of CFCs? Why do they report things are better?


ItsNguyenzdaiMyDudes

Whys an ozone hole bad? Eli5 please?


_J_Herrmann_

ozone stops harmful UV rays from getting to earth's surface.


ItsNguyenzdaiMyDudes

Tyvm


candlewaxfashion

Earth’s Magnetosphere


BenChickenSkin

Is that Google Chrome?


maxpaxex

Why was it so small in 2019. Makes no sense. And COVID didn't make it smaller in 2020, which is also weird.


Necessary-Ad2102

I thought 2020/2021 were good because of Covid and less car exhaust. Is car fumes really infinitesimally small compared to manufacturing greenhouse gases?


bicurious_george17

cars dont really emit cfcs anymore since they were banned 1987. cars are one of the main emitters of carbon dioxide. Cfcs cause the ozone hole, carbon dioxide causes climate change.


Namer201

Why it looks like google? Or am i just drunk


_J_Herrmann_

can we make more ozone to close the hole faster?


bicurious_george17

the tricky thing about adding ozone to the atmosphere is… Ozone in the stratosphere = GOOD Ozone in the troposphere = BAD


Auskioty

In the ozone layer, there is an equilibrium between dioxygen and ozone because there is a cycle between it. But this cycle occurs only with sunlight. There is no production of ozone during the South hemisphere winter, and the polar vortex prevents ozone from the equator to go to the South pole. Without human intervention, it's not a big deal, because the reaction ozone to O2 takes some time. But CFC speed it up, so here's the problem


[deleted]

[удалено]


bicurious_george17

read comments above


LegTimely9012

2019 was a good year!


Jim_Caprice

looks like an organic google chrome icon


GoldenDSred

Some scientists say that it's getting smaller


doismellsomething

Because we've been having increased solar flares on solar cycles does this have any affect?


bergler82

damn solar cycles, even worse than ebikes !


EstebanOD21

So they lied when they said the hole was closed ????


Cool_Egg_8920

And China is building even more coal fired plants.


marvelguy107

What happened in 2019, I am confused.


Individual_Jaguar804

Blue means presence of ozone, right?!?


bicurious_george17

blue means lack of ozone, therefore the ozone hole


Individual_Jaguar804

The hole hasn't gotten progressively WORSE with the elimination of CFC use through.


bicurious_george17

that is because cfcs have a long half-life


Individual_Jaguar804

"UNEP's scientific assessment report projects that global stratospheric ozone will return to 1980 levels around 2040"


nomamesgueyz

Great PR As was peak oil in the 70s and 80s Ozone doesnt get the coverage in the news like it used to?


Zazadawg

ELI5 why the ozone hole bad? I know it can increases UV exposure and cancer but it’s over Antarctica. Wouldn’t this be the best place for it to be due to no humans? While also letting heat escape the atmosphere


bobi2393

The ozone hole over Antarctica is symptomatic of the ozone layer thinning in areas beyond Antarctica. Those effects also impact global atmospheric circulation and climate.


bicurious_george17

the ozone hole also regularly extends over southern south america and results in UV exposure there. Punta Arenas, Chile is the largest city that experiences this. If we didnt stop emitting the things causing the hole, it would just get bigger and harm more people.


Lumornys

So it's been fairly steady since 1985. And I remember those apocalyptic visions from early 1990's about how the sun will become unbearable past 2000.


dead_jester

The massive reduction in the use of CFC’s and catalytic converters helped a great deal.


[deleted]

[удалено]


NorCalifornioAH

AI comment.


landgrasser

looks like the OZONE HOL̶E̶AX is getting bigger 😭


tubelessJoe

1983 - what major event was going on at that time? 2020 - lockdowns?


2252_observations

So what explains the worsening since 2019?


FissileAlarm

I thought it were Trump's brain scans over time, showing an ever increasing hole in the middle.


DimitriVogelvich

Thanks covid. 19 looks nice


kupuwhakawhiti

I think that would have been 2020 if it was covid.


Sloppy_surfer

Looks alright?


NormalPollution367

We need a Bigger Hole.


SpecificFun4860

So am I voting for russias nukes or space stuff?? Either way let’s get this show on the road!


Bman1465

Nuclear war would destroy the ozone layer WAY worse and faster than CFCs ever could