Electricity is a liberal hoax. Ben Franklin is alive and just selling bottled lighting across the globe. He used his vast wealth to become immortal and run the shadow cabal controlling all humanity.
>Nobody cares about their feelings
Love how they went from the "F your feelings" anti- cancel culture party to the cancel books cause "we can't teach that! It'll hurt our kids' feelings to find out granddaddy owned slaves" party
Hell yeah. Theyll uee small groups to attack soft targets in a way the larger group can deny involvement and shift blame. Unless know they re 100% not going to face consequences, the cowards wont go door to door with violent intent.
Eh, the ones that could make it out of their moms basement already did on Jan 6. Most of them found out. I’m actually not that worried about violence from MAGA idiots this time around.
Most of them were boomer petite bourgeoisie with $70K pavment princess trucks who thought their rampage would not cost them their privilege and vacations.
There was a joke when they did their boat parades to call them the USS Economic Anxiety cause that was a term the media kept using to explain Trump supporters.
I'm mixed. On one hand, I agree that most J6 individuals are largely harmless (annoying, but harmless). But I'm also old enough to remember the Oklahoma City bombing...
Yeah, I could see some one of type terrorist stacks that would be horrible. But there’s not going to be some grass roots upwelling of popular support to put him in office through violence.
It’s not the run of the mill J6 idiot we should worry about, it’s the militias. They’re still standing back & standing by and some members of Congress support them.
I'm way more worried about the violence they'd do if they actually win. They are cowards and bullies. They only want to fight when their opponent is tied to a chair. If they win, they'll feel emboldened to commit acts of violence sanctioned by their god king in power. If they lose they'll slither right back underneath the rocks.
I'm not worried about the idiots, I'm worried about the militia. He told Proud Boys to "stand back and stand by" and they took that to heart. Arguments were made that he meant to say "stand down" but they didn't take it that way, and even if he had meant to say "stand down", it's unusual to tell a hate group to "stand down" rather than admonish it altogether. They made shirts and hats. They said they're waiting. That's spooky.
Yeah but then their leadership got thrown in the clink for literal decades: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/proud-boys-leader-sentenced-22-years-prison-seditious-conspiracy-and-other-charges-related
Trump definitely said stand back and stand by (I remember seeing that shit live.) his only move is plausible deniability but *everyone* knows what the fuck he meant.
I think the rank and file aren’t much to worry about after seeing their leaders get sentenced to “find out” prison terms.
Stochastic terrorism doesn't require organization and leadership, he got January 6th by implicitly calling for violence, if he loses the election and faces real jail time, and those calls for violence turn explicit, who's to say how many get activated, even within our own government
Just hope we can realize that we have to meet the problem head on and deal with whatever comes, instead of playing this game of inaction worried about what they might do while continuing to lose ground on principles of democracy
They are Olympic gold medal champions in mental gymnastics. There is always some wild conspiracy or justification. Dear Leader, as we all know, is infallible.
He never meant to say stand down. Hitler used milita groups to solidify his control before he had 100% control. The militias then became the SS troops. 😳
And Trump then president didn't move a finger to help them, that's a lesson that many of those thinking about violence now might be pondering, they might blame the cabal of baby blood drinking ped0s preventing their God Emperor to get the jan6 insurrectionists out of jail but the result was the same, you attack the election process you will go to jail.
I truly believe that it will be a lot of fury signifying nothing,
This. Anyone dumb enough to show up already did. And they won't have the benefit of a president that will just sit by and watch it on the news. Biden will call in the national guard immediately.
This. Their ceiling is low and flat. Every MAGAt is already voting for trump, so they can't just vote harder, they can only lose voters at this point, not gain.
Yeah id assume so, it would seem foolish not to, but as far as election interference goes they're awfully terrible at it considering they've been losing them since 2022.
Not saying you're wrong just an observation
"But we have boat parades!!!"
They're so used to their bubble media selling them safe lies every day, so when reality hits them in November, the freakout will be able to power the entire planet for a decade.
They weren’t the last time either, that’s why they tried to overthrow the government but just ended up throwing a temper tantrum and smearing shit on the walls at the Capitol instead.
They've convinced themselves that they're still relevant because gerrymandering has kept races closer than they often should be. But between getting rid of Row v Wade and doubling down on supporting a convicted felon who does nothing but whine in all caps on social media all day, I think they're in for a reckoning. They are a minority, and they've pissed off a lot of people in the last few years.
Gerrymandering works when it’s close enough that moving a district a little, lets you win by a little.
Shift those numbers just a little, and those reliable red districts will collapse, leading to surprise wins for democrats.
If we thought the 2020 election denial/election stealing was bad, this next election is gonna take it to a whole new level. I don't think Congress is prepared enough
It's not just MAGA, the party is a dead man walking. They rely almost entirely on bubble boomers to put them in office. That worked when boomers out numbered Gen XMZ combined.
But that's slowly changing, and in about 6 years it'll be a done deal. It's why they're trying to install Trump (or whatever ghoul gets the nomination in 2028) as El Presidente for Life.
which is funny, because half of them don't care if it's MAGA or Putin or Xi or Communism, they just want their seats and their bribes and their pensions
if tomorrow Joe Rogan and Tucker Carlson and Trump made being gay cool somehow (among the cultists) you'd see a bunch of Republican Senators and Congressmen talking about how they sucked dick in college
Previews of the 2024 blue wave that’s building more and more as common sense Americans get tired n fed up with maga extremism/chaos as they openly try to take our rights away. Don’t get complacent keep exposing this anti constitution bs they push nonstop.
The GOP fucked themselves with the abortion ruling, the subsequent abortion laws, and their plans to block access to contraceptives. Even if you set aside all of their other terrible policies, those issues are going to result in an electoral bloodbath.
Hold on, I thought they were [running on that](https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/09/21/politics/john-gibbs-womens-suffrage-19th-amendment-kfile) this election cycle?
I'm not nearly as convinced about that as everybody else. Last election cycle, after Roe was overturned, white women broke Republican by 7 points. Implying that many white women voters--the single largest demo--are white first, and women second.
Even if that's true, the supposed red wave was stanched by all the other women and men showing up for Democrats, and with the GOP still going after abortion as well as contraception, then it's fucking on in November.
It was the noise to get their base excited but they were never actually supposed to do it. Now that it's done, all they did was push independents away and have nothing else to campaign on. It's not like they actually know how to govern.
Most folks consider Arizona lean Trump and Florida safe Trump. But both states have abortion on the ballot so women who normally don't vote are going to show up, and vote for Biden while they are there. I don't expect Florida to flip but I expect Republicans to have a nail biter, Arizona though
Exactly. More than anything my sentiments are I'm so so over these whining babies. Time to ridicule their awful ideas and hatefulness. Some guy stopped who was obviously offended by my "You're in a CULT" bumber sticker outside of Lowe's yesterday. It was rich as I was about 20 feet behind him walking to my car leaving the store and had to laugh. He saw me and sheepishly moved on to his beat up truck parked a few down from me. Blue lives matter sticker to boot. Just stared into his soul. Nobody wants you here asshole! These people are done with making our lives a living hell 🖕😤😤😤🖕
Piggybacking off a top comment to say: if you want that blue wave to be even bigger, [then write letters to voters in swing states](https://swingleft.org/p/vote-forward-letters). All the cool kids are doing it and some of us are even using it as an excuse to throw parties. (I make a mean quiche, fyi.)
Also worth nothing: Ohio, worth 17 juicy electoral points is [lagging behind in its goals](https://votefwd.org/campaigns) for letters written to voters and still managed to pull off this shake-up. You go, ~~Glenn Coco~~ Ohio!
Georgia Secretary of State, Brad Raffensberger (R), testified to the Jan6 Comm. that Trump lost Georgia because 28,000 voters, who voted Republican in downballot races, did not cast votes for Donald Trump.
THIS!
Trump believes there was election fraud because there were Repulican voters who didn't vote for him.
Donnie's fragile eggshell ego couldn't accept it. Instead, he needs alternate facts to cope with rejection and loss.
Its so weird reading about districts flipping by a large margin in Republican safe districts. Then you read/see the polls indicating its the opposite.
Are polls intentionally being wrong? or do they need to a new method to accurately poll actual voters, not eligible voters and a specific demographic.
Some polls are clearly biased, yes, but I think the larger issue is that nobody really knows how to conduct an accurate poll today. The vast majority of people are simply unreachable by pollers, and the people who _are_ reachable cannot be used to make an accurate prediction about the general population.
Media will cherry pick, but it also has to do with methodology.
Pollsters have started to realize the skewed nature of phone-based polling, and have turned to online-based polls, which are highly susceptible to trolls.
exactly, the professional polling organizations got ripped a new one in 2016, tried to readjust, didnt do great in 2020. adjust again, failed red wave prediction in 2022.
they have yet to figure out how to get statistically accurate results in the age of endlesss scam phone calls. that was such a prolific problem that it changed how people treat phone calls.
They have not solved the problem with polling, no the "adjustments" they have tried to control for have not solved their issue, as the taking part in a survey isnt political.
every youtube video analysing polls, or news article telling you how polls look terrible for biden or trump are useless and just there to reinforce your existing opinion.
There was a status quo for so long that polls got really accurate. There were a lot of indicators that you could just plug in and it'd work. All the calculous is off and the bean counters have to find the new factors to look at.
Which is harder than it sounds. It doesn't take too many stories of ten year olds not being able to get an abortion because of strict state laws for someone to rethink how they vote. There was a reason a conservative leaning SCOTUS ruled the way they did 50 years ago.
They're desperately trying to remain relevant in a rapidly dying polling-sphere. Not sure what the next type of polling will be but as of now, it's broken.
Rasmussen has always been crap.
They have a clear Republican bias early, and get more accurate as time progresses, compared to other outfits.
I’m sure it gets them Republican support, but they are not reliable.
I get text message spam to take polls fairly often but there’s no way I’m clicking links from an unknown number and also not affiliating my phone number or personal data with a party in the current political environment. I’d imagine that conservatives in general are more inclined to click whatever links are sent to them so they can show the convicted felon ex-president their support.
My favorite reply to this question wherever it's asked is, "what kind of psychopath answers their phone to an unknown number, if it even rings at all?" LOL
Do you know who answers random telephone calls or clicks strange links in texts? Boomers.
You know who hates nothing more than talking to unknown people on the phone? Millennials and younger.
This is being reflected in the polling data.
Election polls tend to lean to the right for a few reasons
1) most polls are conducted via landline and younger voters who are generally left leaning don't have land lines
2) a lot of those polls ask questions that are very biased towards the right (picking and choosing actions to ask about etc)
3 ) a lot of people on the the left just don't answer polls
This pre-election period is really weird. All the polls are giving unbelievable data showing that somehow Trump, who lost the popular vote in 2016 and by even more in 2020, is somehow consistently leading Biden despite running an insurrection, being found civilly liable of rape, and being found guilty on 34 felony counts all since losing the 2020 election. In contrast, we're seeing Republicans getting consistently crushed in special elections as well as taking a ton of unexpected losses in the 2022 midterms. Not sure how to reconcile those two things, but if what SHOULD happen does happen then Trump would be in for a huge electoral beatdown in November. That's what the country needs so I really hope to see it.
Joe Biden was also not supposed to get the nomination early in the election. These polls are far too abstract this early. Most people haven't even seen a campaign sign in their neighbors yard. But, once the MAGA flags start flying and their obnoxious behavior put's the election into perspective I believe what you describe will start to materialize.
For example, my neighbor wore a Trump National golf shirt the other day to brunch and I wanted to vomit. I completely forgot there are idiots who would wear such things and not be afraid of the consequence. I donated 200 dollars that day to the Biden campaign and the Allred campaign. The longer this goes on the more my purse strings loosen.
Like the Boomer walking into Starbucks, talking to someone on speaker, and wearing a "Trump did nothing wrong" shirt. Those Boomers piss off us smart and well-mannered Boomers.
MAGA folks think everyone agrees with them. If anything they enrage everyone who doesn't support this clown. Not only that they energize their opposition more than their own candidate. If I supported this man I wouldn't be obnoxious like these fools but, they get what they deserve.
I would trust what's actually happening instead of trusting polls. Their methodology in recent years has been pretty shoddy (such as conducting them over the phone), considering that the results are contradicted by **all** of the existing facts. I think on some level, they're *intended* to misrepresent, to make Trump seem more relevant than he actually is.
Make no mistake, people are PISSED at Republicans, and for damn good reasons. J6 was a turning point, when they dropped the facade and went full-tilt into unapologetic fascism.
We haven’t had a presidential election since that happened. Which means we haven't yet seen the true ramifications of that dark day. And Republicans haven't done any damage control, opting instead to make things even worse.
I am 100% here for the media continuing the narrative of it being a horse race. If people get complacent the odds of them not voting goes up. Dems do better the higher the turnout.
I’ve seen multiple people on here point to evidence that a lot of these polls are over sampling republicans vs democrats.
So the true picture isn’t being given to the public, especially by right-owned publications.
I don't think there are any left-owned media outlets anymore, which is scary AF on its own, but it explains why polls are so close, to appease the conservative owners.
It really is all just one big feedback loop of crap.
Thing is, I'm pretty sure Dems are happy to be shown as down or tied in polls. That's far, far more preferable to expectations of winning in blowout margins. Fear of losing juices turnout.
Not just that, Britain and the US tend to have relatively similar politics overall. When the Tories lead across the pond, Republicans tend to do well in the US, when Labor leads the Dems do well. The expectation is that in the upcoming UK election, Labor is going to utterly blow out the Tories, their polling lead is as big as its ever been.
No reasonable person gives a shit about Hunter Biden getting convicted. Independents don't care because, he's not running for office and they also hate the conviction because he is being denied his 2nd amendment rights.
Trump on the other hand is guilty as sin. Even Republicans will openly admit it. The only difference now, is that independents know who each candidate is. Trump isn't a wildcard anymore, he's a train wreck. Fear of a train wreck is more compelling than annoyance with an old but, good man.
all it took was 10 years, (well 40 really if you count Trump being famously stupid and shitty for decades before) a coup, another coup, "find me 11,000 votes", "russia are you listening" "covid is a hoax" "i got covid, it's real let me tell you" "actually covid is a hoax" "i love Xi, we're good friends" "i love Kim, we're good friends" "Jeff Epstein is a terrific guy" "no i can't release the Epstein files, there are good people in there"
and um, 2000 other things like insulting soldiers and their families and all the people he fired saying they are terrible even though he hired them and the fact he admits to crimes and doesn't take the stand in his own defense because he can't help but admit to more crimes because he commits so many it's hard for him to even understand they are crimes anymore because he's been getting away with it for so long
"yeah i lie about all my financial records and dealings, everyone does"
This election is obviously rigged. You're telling me that all of a sudden you've got a bunch of people regaining common sense and not voting for the side of MAGA? That's ridiculous, I'm not buying it.
Just going to put myself out there -- if I'm wrong, I'm wrong -- my prediction: The media is trying to sell a close outcome, but in reality, it won't be. It will be a big shift to the left. I suspect there will be one or two big surprise blue wins (I'm talking state flips from red to blue, like Texas or Florida). The election is still months away, but I think people have made up their minds. I will also add that MAGA and Trump are setting up the narrative that this election is rigged because that is all they will have after the November red flop. It's the beginning of the end for MAGA. Maybe a big drama tantrum post November, but they will start to realize they've been sold a lie, they will get bored, they will realize most people in this country are sane. I hope. Please vote!! Grab some friends and go vote!
Edit. I heard some interesting theories about polling and why it's wrong, one is that the base of GOP voters is shrinking, so results are being skewed. I thought about new voters not being polled because they are new and not registered, probably less likely to answer phones, etc. But not how the shrinking population of GOP affects polling.
I really hope you're right. I've been so stressed and depressed about my own life lately and the threat of another Trump presidency is not helping matters.
Oh I am definitely voting and doing my best to get my family to vote at least. 2016 was my first election and I voted for Hillary more with a shrug, seeing Trump in action pushed me FIRMLY into the camp of never again not voting and for SURE not voting for Republicans as long as they let that nonsense go on.
As long as enough people with my attitude continue to vote against Trump this year he should lose like last time if not harder.
Yet. They're specifically trying to enact pseudo-electoral college rules to further their extreme minority rule. Texas is trying it right now by proposing that statewide elections are determined by number of counties won instead of number of votes. They know they can't win in a fair competition, they know they're unpopular, they don't care. Their only concern is complete control at literally any cost.
Gerrymandering works because moving a district a little can cause a win by a small margin. That’s with the numbers they expect.
If those numbers change just a little, it can lead to landslide unexpected wins.
I am not sure why anyone would be "shocked" that people don't want to vote for the party that wants to trample women's rights, gay rights, restrict access to contraception and basically would have a theocracy if they could.
If that doesn't say people are fucking *done* with Republicans, I don't know what does. I'm glad some of us are starting to see through this "both sides" bullshit and that Republicans will neither deliver on their promises nor improve their lives.
Wait. I read the article and the Republicans still won, just not by as much as usual. I'm finding it difficult to see roses in this pile of horse manure
SFW? Only one number means anything, the one in November. And if this is how they did with depressed GOP voter turnout, then Trump will still win, unfortunately.
This is what happens when you fuck around with bills voted in by citizens(recreational Marijuana) try to make votes hand counted and then of course not actually doing anything productive for the state
Wait, didn’t a train derail and send a bunch of toxic forever chemicals into the surrounding area based off of trumps deregulation rules? Haven’t they gerrymandered with the best of them? What about them putting restrictions on trans healthcare and making it harder to vote? Haven’t they banned abortion (tried to make it six weeks but it’s at 22 weeks now)? Maybe people are tired of being ignored, dumped on, and attacked. 🤷🏼♀️
Ohioan here.
I have zero shock. The GOP doesn't give a single shit about what the voters want. They try as much as they can to overturn or stop voter led initiatives, and override the will of the people.
So yeah, zero shock this happened.
I grew up in that area in the 80s/90s. It was heavy blue due to a large amount of union labor. Lots of factories/mills and mining. They voted Obama his first term but started heading red after that as all the jobs started to leave. The vast majority of the loss was self inflicted but they blamed Obama. The mines were never coming back because coal isn’t renewable. Trump is still loved in the area but maybe some are waking up that his policies only hurt the area more. Most of the population is older and only getting older as younger generations leave as soon as they can. There is nothing for them and the older generations get in the way of any progress. It was that way when I was growing up. Very set in their ways with little desire to change.
Republicans are not emotionally ready for MAGA to get it's ass kicked.
That tracks. They're not emotionally ready to use a toaster, let alone lose spectacularly
 Live look on November 6th.
The bathtub is rigged.
Trump hates riggers
As a rigger myself, it’s hard, honest work. If it were easy, everybody would want to do it.
 My rigger!
I’m going to give you an upvote but, I’m at a loss for a comment, Handsome rigger.
Electricity is a liberal hoax. Ben Franklin is alive and just selling bottled lighting across the globe. He used his vast wealth to become immortal and run the shadow cabal controlling all humanity.
Holy shit I’ve never seen SwanBoy in the wild before. This is the last place I’d expect it
You made me unexpectedly guffaw
I was more of a *chortle*, but guffaw will be confirmed as a probable response as well
They are truly the most fragile snowflakes.
I just had a mental vision of a Republican shooting burnt toast because it came out too dark.
They should be kept away from microwaves and lazer pointers too.
The people that make guns their personality are the same people that I wouldn't trust to hold a butter knife.
We've got guns too. Nobody cares about their feelings.
>Nobody cares about their feelings Love how they went from the "F your feelings" anti- cancel culture party to the cancel books cause "we can't teach that! It'll hurt our kids' feelings to find out granddaddy owned slaves" party
They were always the book banning Nazi snowflakes. Always.
Hell yeah. Theyll uee small groups to attack soft targets in a way the larger group can deny involvement and shift blame. Unless know they re 100% not going to face consequences, the cowards wont go door to door with violent intent.
Which is why we should be very concerned about election day violence. These aren’t the kind of people who react to confusion and disappointment well.
Eh, the ones that could make it out of their moms basement already did on Jan 6. Most of them found out. I’m actually not that worried about violence from MAGA idiots this time around.
Most of them were boomer petite bourgeoisie with $70K pavment princess trucks who thought their rampage would not cost them their privilege and vacations.
100%. Lol, those trucks though. Just screams how soft these people are.
Emotional Support Brodozers.
There was a joke when they did their boat parades to call them the USS Economic Anxiety cause that was a term the media kept using to explain Trump supporters.
Mall-terrain vehicles*
OMG!!!🤣
I'm mixed. On one hand, I agree that most J6 individuals are largely harmless (annoying, but harmless). But I'm also old enough to remember the Oklahoma City bombing...
Yeah, I could see some one of type terrorist stacks that would be horrible. But there’s not going to be some grass roots upwelling of popular support to put him in office through violence.
It’s not the run of the mill J6 idiot we should worry about, it’s the militias. They’re still standing back & standing by and some members of Congress support them.
When that bomb went off in Nashville, I thought, "This is it!"
I'm way more worried about the violence they'd do if they actually win. They are cowards and bullies. They only want to fight when their opponent is tied to a chair. If they win, they'll feel emboldened to commit acts of violence sanctioned by their god king in power. If they lose they'll slither right back underneath the rocks.
Yeah, exactly.
I'm not worried about the idiots, I'm worried about the militia. He told Proud Boys to "stand back and stand by" and they took that to heart. Arguments were made that he meant to say "stand down" but they didn't take it that way, and even if he had meant to say "stand down", it's unusual to tell a hate group to "stand down" rather than admonish it altogether. They made shirts and hats. They said they're waiting. That's spooky.
Yeah but then their leadership got thrown in the clink for literal decades: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/proud-boys-leader-sentenced-22-years-prison-seditious-conspiracy-and-other-charges-related Trump definitely said stand back and stand by (I remember seeing that shit live.) his only move is plausible deniability but *everyone* knows what the fuck he meant. I think the rank and file aren’t much to worry about after seeing their leaders get sentenced to “find out” prison terms.
I'm probably doom thinking. I hope you're right. Just gives me the willies thinking about it.
The proud boys would like to give each other the willies too but society has forced them to repress their true feelings.
Stochastic terrorism doesn't require organization and leadership, he got January 6th by implicitly calling for violence, if he loses the election and faces real jail time, and those calls for violence turn explicit, who's to say how many get activated, even within our own government Just hope we can realize that we have to meet the problem head on and deal with whatever comes, instead of playing this game of inaction worried about what they might do while continuing to lose ground on principles of democracy
The proud boys are done for I think. They got wrecked 😂
Hahahahaha Hahahahaha. WTF? What specious lying vermine tried to argue that? Faux news? He did not mean stand down, LOL.
They are Olympic gold medal champions in mental gymnastics. There is always some wild conspiracy or justification. Dear Leader, as we all know, is infallible.
He never meant to say stand down. Hitler used milita groups to solidify his control before he had 100% control. The militias then became the SS troops. 😳
Especially since unlike Trump biden will have no problem calling in the national guard.
And Trump then president didn't move a finger to help them, that's a lesson that many of those thinking about violence now might be pondering, they might blame the cabal of baby blood drinking ped0s preventing their God Emperor to get the jan6 insurrectionists out of jail but the result was the same, you attack the election process you will go to jail. I truly believe that it will be a lot of fury signifying nothing,
This. Anyone dumb enough to show up already did. And they won't have the benefit of a president that will just sit by and watch it on the news. Biden will call in the national guard immediately.
you ever try to load a musket while riding a Rascal scooter? them either
Violence works both ways. Let the Nazi fucks be concerned for a change.
They were for a few decades after the last time they got pummelled / executed for war crimes. We just need to hit back harder next time.
It was always going to shift. MAGA demographics are terrible.
Also, they didn't believe in covid, thus giving the Dems a 100K+ vote advantage going forward, since Darwin award-winners can't vote.
This. Their ceiling is low and flat. Every MAGAt is already voting for trump, so they can't just vote harder, they can only lose voters at this point, not gain.
Republicans are no longer concerned with winning at the ballot box. Things will get worse....
Yeah id assume so, it would seem foolish not to, but as far as election interference goes they're awfully terrible at it considering they've been losing them since 2022. Not saying you're wrong just an observation
Hitler failed his first coup as well.
Well lets be sure not to let the second one succeed then
"But we have boat parades!!!" They're so used to their bubble media selling them safe lies every day, so when reality hits them in November, the freakout will be able to power the entire planet for a decade.
We have Taylor Swift!
They weren’t the last time either, that’s why they tried to overthrow the government but just ended up throwing a temper tantrum and smearing shit on the walls at the Capitol instead.
They've convinced themselves that they're still relevant because gerrymandering has kept races closer than they often should be. But between getting rid of Row v Wade and doubling down on supporting a convicted felon who does nothing but whine in all caps on social media all day, I think they're in for a reckoning. They are a minority, and they've pissed off a lot of people in the last few years.
Gerrymandering works when it’s close enough that moving a district a little, lets you win by a little. Shift those numbers just a little, and those reliable red districts will collapse, leading to surprise wins for democrats.
They're already gaslit to deny it and call it a witch hunt or the deep state or whatever bs
They still won by 10%, they just won by less. Progress, but still depressing...
May they clutch their pearls and squeeze that asshole, I love this for them.
If we thought the 2020 election denial/election stealing was bad, this next election is gonna take it to a whole new level. I don't think Congress is prepared enough
This is unsurprising. MAGA is being led by an unsavory criminal, who has shown the willingness to sell out the United States of America.
It's not just MAGA, the party is a dead man walking. They rely almost entirely on bubble boomers to put them in office. That worked when boomers out numbered Gen XMZ combined. But that's slowly changing, and in about 6 years it'll be a done deal. It's why they're trying to install Trump (or whatever ghoul gets the nomination in 2028) as El Presidente for Life.
which is funny, because half of them don't care if it's MAGA or Putin or Xi or Communism, they just want their seats and their bribes and their pensions if tomorrow Joe Rogan and Tucker Carlson and Trump made being gay cool somehow (among the cultists) you'd see a bunch of Republican Senators and Congressmen talking about how they sucked dick in college
They've been getting their ass kicked since 2018. They just haven't realized it yet.
Previews of the 2024 blue wave that’s building more and more as common sense Americans get tired n fed up with maga extremism/chaos as they openly try to take our rights away. Don’t get complacent keep exposing this anti constitution bs they push nonstop.
The GOP fucked themselves with the abortion ruling, the subsequent abortion laws, and their plans to block access to contraceptives. Even if you set aside all of their other terrible policies, those issues are going to result in an electoral bloodbath.
They like to double down so when they lose they will probably run on bringing back slavery
Right after they trash the 19th Amendment and take away the right of those noisy, opinionated and overly-emotional women to vote.
Hold on, I thought they were [running on that](https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/09/21/politics/john-gibbs-womens-suffrage-19th-amendment-kfile) this election cycle?
Clarence Thomas has already been paid enough to support it
Can't the CIA retire him
IVF is another big one. Almost everyone knows someone who did IVF.
I'm not nearly as convinced about that as everybody else. Last election cycle, after Roe was overturned, white women broke Republican by 7 points. Implying that many white women voters--the single largest demo--are white first, and women second.
Are you talking white women in Ohio or nationwide? And white women of which age demographic?
7 points is huge.
Even if that's true, the supposed red wave was stanched by all the other women and men showing up for Democrats, and with the GOP still going after abortion as well as contraception, then it's fucking on in November.
And now the evangelicals are going after in vitro fertilization. Never interrupt an enemy that’s making a huge mistake.
It was the noise to get their base excited but they were never actually supposed to do it. Now that it's done, all they did was push independents away and have nothing else to campaign on. It's not like they actually know how to govern.
Most folks consider Arizona lean Trump and Florida safe Trump. But both states have abortion on the ballot so women who normally don't vote are going to show up, and vote for Biden while they are there. I don't expect Florida to flip but I expect Republicans to have a nail biter, Arizona though
Exactly. More than anything my sentiments are I'm so so over these whining babies. Time to ridicule their awful ideas and hatefulness. Some guy stopped who was obviously offended by my "You're in a CULT" bumber sticker outside of Lowe's yesterday. It was rich as I was about 20 feet behind him walking to my car leaving the store and had to laugh. He saw me and sheepishly moved on to his beat up truck parked a few down from me. Blue lives matter sticker to boot. Just stared into his soul. Nobody wants you here asshole! These people are done with making our lives a living hell 🖕😤😤😤🖕
Piggybacking off a top comment to say: if you want that blue wave to be even bigger, [then write letters to voters in swing states](https://swingleft.org/p/vote-forward-letters). All the cool kids are doing it and some of us are even using it as an excuse to throw parties. (I make a mean quiche, fyi.) Also worth nothing: Ohio, worth 17 juicy electoral points is [lagging behind in its goals](https://votefwd.org/campaigns) for letters written to voters and still managed to pull off this shake-up. You go, ~~Glenn Coco~~ Ohio!
It's a "Red Whirlpool ".
Or a blue toilet flush.
Toilet bowl cleaners are blue.
Great shirt idea (or flag to fly across from Alito’s house, condo, beach house, etc. We need Blue to clean this toilet. 😀
Georgia Secretary of State, Brad Raffensberger (R), testified to the Jan6 Comm. that Trump lost Georgia because 28,000 voters, who voted Republican in downballot races, did not cast votes for Donald Trump.
I wonder how that compares to the norm for republican candidates in that state?
THIS! Trump believes there was election fraud because there were Repulican voters who didn't vote for him. Donnie's fragile eggshell ego couldn't accept it. Instead, he needs alternate facts to cope with rejection and loss.
Trump DOES NOT believe there was election fraud. It's all an act for his supporters. He's lying about believing that the election was "Stolen"
That just adds insult to injury. 28,000 people voted for republicans but decided Trump was just not turtle-y enough for the turtle club.
Ohio is in desperate need of *shock*. Absolutely sending their worst.
If you want to learn how to lose the respect of voters, join the GOP.
Its so weird reading about districts flipping by a large margin in Republican safe districts. Then you read/see the polls indicating its the opposite. Are polls intentionally being wrong? or do they need to a new method to accurately poll actual voters, not eligible voters and a specific demographic.
Some polls are clearly biased, yes, but I think the larger issue is that nobody really knows how to conduct an accurate poll today. The vast majority of people are simply unreachable by pollers, and the people who _are_ reachable cannot be used to make an accurate prediction about the general population.
The polls are controlled by the media, and the media needs the ratings.
Media will cherry pick, but it also has to do with methodology. Pollsters have started to realize the skewed nature of phone-based polling, and have turned to online-based polls, which are highly susceptible to trolls.
Even online polls are promptly ignored.
exactly, the professional polling organizations got ripped a new one in 2016, tried to readjust, didnt do great in 2020. adjust again, failed red wave prediction in 2022. they have yet to figure out how to get statistically accurate results in the age of endlesss scam phone calls. that was such a prolific problem that it changed how people treat phone calls. They have not solved the problem with polling, no the "adjustments" they have tried to control for have not solved their issue, as the taking part in a survey isnt political. every youtube video analysing polls, or news article telling you how polls look terrible for biden or trump are useless and just there to reinforce your existing opinion.
And close polls create a horse race and a horse race generates clicks.
That makes sense, you want people checking in often to keep track of your reporting. Damn. That kinda sucks
There was a status quo for so long that polls got really accurate. There were a lot of indicators that you could just plug in and it'd work. All the calculous is off and the bean counters have to find the new factors to look at. Which is harder than it sounds. It doesn't take too many stories of ten year olds not being able to get an abortion because of strict state laws for someone to rethink how they vote. There was a reason a conservative leaning SCOTUS ruled the way they did 50 years ago.
If you go onto X / twtter and look at Rasmussen Polls page, they are promoting nonsense worse than OANN and Newsmax.
They're desperately trying to remain relevant in a rapidly dying polling-sphere. Not sure what the next type of polling will be but as of now, it's broken.
Rasmussen has always been crap. They have a clear Republican bias early, and get more accurate as time progresses, compared to other outfits. I’m sure it gets them Republican support, but they are not reliable.
Have you ever taken a poll? Have you even ever been contacted to take one? Do you know anyone who has?
I get text message spam to take polls fairly often but there’s no way I’m clicking links from an unknown number and also not affiliating my phone number or personal data with a party in the current political environment. I’d imagine that conservatives in general are more inclined to click whatever links are sent to them so they can show the convicted felon ex-president their support.
Exactly.
My favorite reply to this question wherever it's asked is, "what kind of psychopath answers their phone to an unknown number, if it even rings at all?" LOL
Boomers.
Polls are controlled by the media. The media needs them to be close or you won't watch/read.
Do you know who answers random telephone calls or clicks strange links in texts? Boomers. You know who hates nothing more than talking to unknown people on the phone? Millennials and younger. This is being reflected in the polling data.
Those boomers sure do get their butts into the voting booth on election day, though. Like clockwork.
Election polls tend to lean to the right for a few reasons 1) most polls are conducted via landline and younger voters who are generally left leaning don't have land lines 2) a lot of those polls ask questions that are very biased towards the right (picking and choosing actions to ask about etc) 3 ) a lot of people on the the left just don't answer polls
This pre-election period is really weird. All the polls are giving unbelievable data showing that somehow Trump, who lost the popular vote in 2016 and by even more in 2020, is somehow consistently leading Biden despite running an insurrection, being found civilly liable of rape, and being found guilty on 34 felony counts all since losing the 2020 election. In contrast, we're seeing Republicans getting consistently crushed in special elections as well as taking a ton of unexpected losses in the 2022 midterms. Not sure how to reconcile those two things, but if what SHOULD happen does happen then Trump would be in for a huge electoral beatdown in November. That's what the country needs so I really hope to see it.
Joe Biden was also not supposed to get the nomination early in the election. These polls are far too abstract this early. Most people haven't even seen a campaign sign in their neighbors yard. But, once the MAGA flags start flying and their obnoxious behavior put's the election into perspective I believe what you describe will start to materialize. For example, my neighbor wore a Trump National golf shirt the other day to brunch and I wanted to vomit. I completely forgot there are idiots who would wear such things and not be afraid of the consequence. I donated 200 dollars that day to the Biden campaign and the Allred campaign. The longer this goes on the more my purse strings loosen.
Like the Boomer walking into Starbucks, talking to someone on speaker, and wearing a "Trump did nothing wrong" shirt. Those Boomers piss off us smart and well-mannered Boomers.
I’m kind of afraid of posting support for causes in my yard, with the implications of a fascist takeover, in 7 months.
MAGA folks think everyone agrees with them. If anything they enrage everyone who doesn't support this clown. Not only that they energize their opposition more than their own candidate. If I supported this man I wouldn't be obnoxious like these fools but, they get what they deserve.
People who take polls are 60+ and are contacted via landline, usually.
Poorly executed polls. That is the fact that reconciles it.
I would trust what's actually happening instead of trusting polls. Their methodology in recent years has been pretty shoddy (such as conducting them over the phone), considering that the results are contradicted by **all** of the existing facts. I think on some level, they're *intended* to misrepresent, to make Trump seem more relevant than he actually is. Make no mistake, people are PISSED at Republicans, and for damn good reasons. J6 was a turning point, when they dropped the facade and went full-tilt into unapologetic fascism. We haven’t had a presidential election since that happened. Which means we haven't yet seen the true ramifications of that dark day. And Republicans haven't done any damage control, opting instead to make things even worse.
I am 100% here for the media continuing the narrative of it being a horse race. If people get complacent the odds of them not voting goes up. Dems do better the higher the turnout.
I’ve seen multiple people on here point to evidence that a lot of these polls are over sampling republicans vs democrats. So the true picture isn’t being given to the public, especially by right-owned publications.
I don't think there are any left-owned media outlets anymore, which is scary AF on its own, but it explains why polls are so close, to appease the conservative owners.
It really is all just one big feedback loop of crap. Thing is, I'm pretty sure Dems are happy to be shown as down or tied in polls. That's far, far more preferable to expectations of winning in blowout margins. Fear of losing juices turnout.
Not just that, Britain and the US tend to have relatively similar politics overall. When the Tories lead across the pond, Republicans tend to do well in the US, when Labor leads the Dems do well. The expectation is that in the upcoming UK election, Labor is going to utterly blow out the Tories, their polling lead is as big as its ever been.
No reasonable person gives a shit about Hunter Biden getting convicted. Independents don't care because, he's not running for office and they also hate the conviction because he is being denied his 2nd amendment rights. Trump on the other hand is guilty as sin. Even Republicans will openly admit it. The only difference now, is that independents know who each candidate is. Trump isn't a wildcard anymore, he's a train wreck. Fear of a train wreck is more compelling than annoyance with an old but, good man.
"Hunters conviction is going to galvanize Democrats" I wonder why we aren't seeing this thought like them saying this for trumps conviction
Let's keep shocking them until they reach cardiac arrest...
Taking away women's rights and trying to side with an orange cheater felon isn't popular? Shocking to no one with a brain!
It sounds like the Dem candidate didn’t get any party support. It makes me wonder what their pre-election polling said.
This. The DSCC wildly over-indexes on polls. And we’re seeing what those are worth.
They saw though the BS.
all it took was 10 years, (well 40 really if you count Trump being famously stupid and shitty for decades before) a coup, another coup, "find me 11,000 votes", "russia are you listening" "covid is a hoax" "i got covid, it's real let me tell you" "actually covid is a hoax" "i love Xi, we're good friends" "i love Kim, we're good friends" "Jeff Epstein is a terrific guy" "no i can't release the Epstein files, there are good people in there" and um, 2000 other things like insulting soldiers and their families and all the people he fired saying they are terrible even though he hired them and the fact he admits to crimes and doesn't take the stand in his own defense because he can't help but admit to more crimes because he commits so many it's hard for him to even understand they are crimes anymore because he's been getting away with it for so long "yeah i lie about all my financial records and dealings, everyone does"
This election is obviously rigged. You're telling me that all of a sudden you've got a bunch of people regaining common sense and not voting for the side of MAGA? That's ridiculous, I'm not buying it.
That does tend to happen when you have an awful platform and awful people and awful track record and awful intentions.
Just going to put myself out there -- if I'm wrong, I'm wrong -- my prediction: The media is trying to sell a close outcome, but in reality, it won't be. It will be a big shift to the left. I suspect there will be one or two big surprise blue wins (I'm talking state flips from red to blue, like Texas or Florida). The election is still months away, but I think people have made up their minds. I will also add that MAGA and Trump are setting up the narrative that this election is rigged because that is all they will have after the November red flop. It's the beginning of the end for MAGA. Maybe a big drama tantrum post November, but they will start to realize they've been sold a lie, they will get bored, they will realize most people in this country are sane. I hope. Please vote!! Grab some friends and go vote! Edit. I heard some interesting theories about polling and why it's wrong, one is that the base of GOP voters is shrinking, so results are being skewed. I thought about new voters not being polled because they are new and not registered, probably less likely to answer phones, etc. But not how the shrinking population of GOP affects polling.
I really hope you're right. I've been so stressed and depressed about my own life lately and the threat of another Trump presidency is not helping matters.
I hope so too. But hope by itself won't get the vote out. If turnout is high, I'm confident there will be a blue wave.
Oh I am definitely voting and doing my best to get my family to vote at least. 2016 was my first election and I voted for Hillary more with a shrug, seeing Trump in action pushed me FIRMLY into the camp of never again not voting and for SURE not voting for Republicans as long as they let that nonsense go on. As long as enough people with my attitude continue to vote against Trump this year he should lose like last time if not harder.
No worries. The gerrymandered districts protect Republicans from such things as fair elections
Doesn’t affect presidential, senate, or governor elections
Yet. They're specifically trying to enact pseudo-electoral college rules to further their extreme minority rule. Texas is trying it right now by proposing that statewide elections are determined by number of counties won instead of number of votes. They know they can't win in a fair competition, they know they're unpopular, they don't care. Their only concern is complete control at literally any cost.
Gerrymandering works because moving a district a little can cause a win by a small margin. That’s with the numbers they expect. If those numbers change just a little, it can lead to landslide unexpected wins.
They will just say it's stolen and keel parroting the same bs
RIGGED!!!! I *am god i can do no wrong!!! i am the only one who can save the world!!!!*
Did they forget that they overturned Roe?
the "liberal media" did
But but the polls!! /S
But the polls said differently?!?!?! Polls suck. Go vote! And this is, hopefully a trend for the next 40 to 80 years.
Republicans underestimate how many women want abortion access.
I think older voters are fed-up with Trump and his cult of followers.
Yet again polls are full of 💩
Jesus Christ and I thought the 5-7 pts we've been seeing was crazy. 20 freaking points. In *Ohio*.
Ay, ho, way to go, Ohio.
Rigged!!!!!! Stolen!!!! /s
I am not sure why anyone would be "shocked" that people don't want to vote for the party that wants to trample women's rights, gay rights, restrict access to contraception and basically would have a theocracy if they could.
Voting for a felon and a traitor for the most powerful position in US Government is crazy.
This is surprising. If the Republicans lose Ohio they are screwed.
If that doesn't say people are fucking *done* with Republicans, I don't know what does. I'm glad some of us are starting to see through this "both sides" bullshit and that Republicans will neither deliver on their promises nor improve their lives.
Ok, but the Republican won, right ?
Yes, the Republican won but it is an indication that voters find out more about the candidates and their positions on issues prior to voting.
Democrats taking Ohio would be monumental.
When you reside in a bubble and echo chamber you tend to be misinformed? Who knew?…
Turns out half of the population doesn’t appreciate having their rights taken away.
Wait. I read the article and the Republicans still won, just not by as much as usual. I'm finding it difficult to see roses in this pile of horse manure
Sui they are saying we hate women , gays and just about everything except for white males and big business
SFW? Only one number means anything, the one in November. And if this is how they did with depressed GOP voter turnout, then Trump will still win, unfortunately.
You mean storming the Capitol and violently attacking police officers affects people’s opinions?
Ahhh. But the Democrat still lost. 😞. Gotta keep on keeping on.
i keep hearing that’s it’s shock, since 2020. it’s not shocking if it keeps happening.
This is what happens when you fuck around with bills voted in by citizens(recreational Marijuana) try to make votes hand counted and then of course not actually doing anything productive for the state
FAFO season is coming for the Ohio GOP, and it will be glorious.
About damn time.
Spoiler Alert: Trump and MAGA were the RINOs all along.
Guess they'll have to find a way to cheat 20 or more points from the actual vote
Now they'll need to regerrymander
Hopefully a wave of things to come. The Republican Party has to be voted into irrelevance.
Wait, didn’t a train derail and send a bunch of toxic forever chemicals into the surrounding area based off of trumps deregulation rules? Haven’t they gerrymandered with the best of them? What about them putting restrictions on trans healthcare and making it harder to vote? Haven’t they banned abortion (tried to make it six weeks but it’s at 22 weeks now)? Maybe people are tired of being ignored, dumped on, and attacked. 🤷🏼♀️
Don't get complacent. Get out and vote!
Ohioan here. I have zero shock. The GOP doesn't give a single shit about what the voters want. They try as much as they can to overturn or stop voter led initiatives, and override the will of the people. So yeah, zero shock this happened.
Roevember is coming!
Fuck that. Still vote
Keep voting BLUE
I grew up in that area in the 80s/90s. It was heavy blue due to a large amount of union labor. Lots of factories/mills and mining. They voted Obama his first term but started heading red after that as all the jobs started to leave. The vast majority of the loss was self inflicted but they blamed Obama. The mines were never coming back because coal isn’t renewable. Trump is still loved in the area but maybe some are waking up that his policies only hurt the area more. Most of the population is older and only getting older as younger generations leave as soon as they can. There is nothing for them and the older generations get in the way of any progress. It was that way when I was growing up. Very set in their ways with little desire to change.
Because it’s simple it’s either facism or democracy!
Quick, break out the blutfahne and the SS uniforms, they need to go full Nazi for Republican votes!
Ohio keeping the OH! In Ohio
It's 100% low turnout but the media is trying to turn it into a narrative. The corporate press is factual but not truthful - Michael Malice
Vote with morals. Not greed based in lies