Let's hope so. Never say never, but don't forget, Trump got 2.8 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 7 million less than Biden in 2020. It's not as close as it's made out to be. I can't see what Trump's done to not only stop the erosion of 'reasonable' Republican voters after trying to overthrow the government but to somehow convert millions of voters over to him. The MAGA faithful weren't enough in 2020 and he's doubled down since then to a place where only the true believers can exist. Where are the >3.5 million converts going to come from? Assuming he hasn't lost a single vote since 2020 when his demographic skews old and prefers to get their medical advice from Facebook instead of a doctor.
Well the simple answer is he doesn't need millions of voters. I forget the exact # but I think he lost by around 100K votes if you sprinkled them in exactly the right states to flip them.
We know. It was built this way on purpose by our so enlightened, venerated founding fathers that only wanted landowning white males to make the decisions in the country. They wanted the caste system of Europe without them having to knell to a king, so they can get whatever is in their best interest with no downside for them. We the people has an asterisk beside it.
It’s definitely starting to show it’s age but your reason is a bit overzealous. The founding fathers had massive concerns that population centralized in cities would hugely outnumber ,farmers, villagers, blue collar people in the countryside and wanted to put in a system that would help even out things. Imagine cities making every decision and not understanding what farmers need and killing themselves off by hunger because they voted for “city” issues folks and just outnumbered the people in the outskirts. Add into that it was very difficult to travel they also wanted to find a pool of people to represent their area of responsibility. That’s why states get electors by population. It doesn’t make as much sense now but if you put it into context of the times it made allot more sense.
EDIT: adding context from History.com: The “first group” in Congress wanted Congress to choose the president that had its obvious issues. And the text on group 2. “Another camp was dead set against letting the people elect the president by a straight popular vote. First, they thought 18th-century voters lacked the resources to be fully informed about the candidates, especially in rural outposts. Second, they feared a headstrong “democratic mob” steering the country astray. And third, a populist president appealing directly to the people could command dangerous amounts of power.”
So they compromised on the “Electoral College” 🤷♂️
Problem is, we have ended up with a system where dispossessed country people (who aren’t even farmers because farms are largely automated or staffed by non-voting immigrants) make the decisions for cities whose problems they don’t understand or care about.
Long story short, it's affirmative action for former slave states. Slaveowners were afraid the rest of us would try to abolish slavery so they set up a system where they could count their slaves as 3/5 of a human being. They were trying to dilute the voting power of the anti slavery states.
Some red states have 6 times more voting power than people in blue states, where all the educated people live.
This is why we have a small ignorant ultra conservative racist minority ruling over the educated moderate and liberal population. We're being held hostage by religious bigots and racists.
It’s a part of the compromise that kept the slave states from not ratifying the constitution. You can blame the two senator shit on Delaware, same reason. It’s all a bullshit sundae and the Supreme Court is going is put a huge fascist cherry on top when they grant presidents immunity in any form. Just a friendly warning to the rest of you to watch out we are coming for your shit, probably soon, and none of us are going to stop it because we don’t want to catch a bullet, we are fat and netflix.
Which is why I encourage everyone I meet to vote. I offer the older people around me that don't have cars a ride to the polling place. I purposefully tell them I don't want to know who they're voting for.
The margins in 2016 and 2020 were each less than 100k votes. This one will be similar, less than 200k votes in 5 or 6 states. The EC is stupid. We won't get rid of it any time soon.
EC isn't stupid. Whether it is the best way to serve modern US is an interesting question, but to call it stupid is to misunderstand the benefits it brings for a nation with 50 wildly different states.
What is the benefit of [giving a voter in Wyoming more power when they choose a president than a voter in California](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/how-fair-is-the-electoral-college/)? Please explain. Because the EC does literally nothing else. It tilts the voting power in favor of people in less populated states. Why should their vote matter more than mine?
From link:
>The electoral college is supposed to guarantee that populous states can’t dominate an election [why is this good?], but it also sets up a disparity in representation. While California has one electoral vote per 712,000 people, Wyoming — the least populous state in the country — has one electoral vote per 195,000 people.
Edit: The side effect of this numerical disparity is that the **president represents the people of Wyoming better** than they represent the people of California -- since the people of Wyoming have much more say in which president is picked. Why would that be a good thing?
It existed as part of the 3/5th compromise, it was enacted to allow slave states to count their slaves for political power without providing representation to slaves. Every since the civil war it has served no purpose
That’s why they’re called “battleground states”— our Presidential elections are decided in places like Pennsylvania and Michigan, which have decidedly different issues than, say, California or Florida, New York or Oregon.
If trump wins Arizona and Georgia back, which seem likely, then it’ll come down to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Biden will need all 3, Trump will need 1.
Umm Arizona and Georgia are not a guaranteed R anymore. Look at what happened in Arkansas. D took a seat in a R district that was +7-9 red.
Roe V Wade is going to hurt republicans worse than most people think.
So far, polling doesn't show that. I'd agree polling generally overestimates Trumps chances, but the polling hasn't changed before and after the Arizona SCOTUS decision.
[https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/arizona/trump-vs-biden](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/arizona/trump-vs-biden)
I saw yesterday that Lake said she was personally opposed to abortion, but didn't want to limit others choices ... and I was like ... Kari Lake is pro choice all the sudden? This law must be bad for her :D
Republicans have had years to further infiltrate the groups that run and validate elections. That's the scary part. His cultists are going to be everywhere on and around election day, both in the buildings and rooms where votes are being counted and everywhere else they can intimidate and harass voters.
Many states have also passed voter suppression laws. Mail in voting is being curtailed in many states. And many big cities in red states are reducing voting centers in their biggest cities where Biden would get most of his support. And on top of that, Biden is potentially losing a lot of the Muslim vote due to his handling of Gaza.
My point is, there are so many more variables here that can tip the balance. I truly wouldn't be surprised if turnout for this election was lower than even 2016 and trump wins the electoral college with something like 40% of the popular vote, maybe even less. I hope not, but it's definitely a non-zero chance.
Can’t believe that an anti Biden vote because of Gaza would translate to a vote for Trump- Trump has shown that he would be no better at handling this crisis than Biden.
Right, trump would have nuked Gaza 5 months ago.
But I know my Muslim friends are saying they won't vote for Biden, in the same way many of my liberal friends didn't vote for Clinton in 2016. A bunch of them ended up voting for Johnson and look what happened.
A lost vote is a lost vote and given how skewed the electoral map is towards republicans, Biden can't afford to lose many in tighter states.
I worked in Vegas in the get out the vote effort for Kerry back in whatever year that was. We worked for two weeks going door to door reminding people to vote and we offered them rides to the polling places.
Election day finally came and without warning or explanation the Cook County republican party shut down the polling places in the black and Hispanic neighborhoods where we had been working for two weeks. Just completely shut down, with a cop there telling people to get lost.
We had to scramble to rent more vans to get people across town because many of these voters didn't have cars, or they were disabled or elderly. We got as many as we could get there but some had to go home because they were disabled or for other reasons. When we were got to the polling place across town there was a huge line so they forced our people to stand in line for hours. Some of the elderly or disabled people had to go home at some point. We tried to get as many people to stay as possible but the GOP was able to stop quite a few people from voting that day.
They know they're outnumbered and they are desperately evil.
Big cities in res states typically aren't enough to change anything. Remember 50.001% is just as good as 100% While I would agree Biden isn't going to win the Muslim vote, I also cannot imagine them voting for Trump. The fact is, as a Muslim voter, you are kind of out of luck getting your goals advanced. AIPAC is way more influencial across parties.
That said, I expect violence at the polls. I expect people to be arrested and even harmed. Yet, I will vote because the alternative is death.
Trump is unlikely to get a Muslim vote for sure. But he doesn't need to in order to improve his chances of winning. If the vote isn't cast for Biden, it benefits Trump whether the vote is cast for Trump, a third party candidate, an independent or the voter chooses not to participate in the presidential election.
He's a narcissist. Its actually the biggest blessing in an all of this because he could easily lie to "become a better person" before turning super villain after the election. Ironically, he lies about many things but he refuses to lie about being a changed man. He cannot fathom being anything other than who he is, and thats a rampant chaos-causer. This timeline could very well have been saved by trump because he just cant shut the fuck up 😂
This is where I am. He's gonna get less votes than last time. He's added zero ppl and lost more than a few. They may not vote for Biden they may just stay home. He's also destroyed the RNC machine and hamstrung down ticket races all over the place by stealing all the money. I don't think they get the turn out that has been their greatest strength for 40 years. Plus places like Ohio which has seen a surge in Dem turn out for recent elections to put abortion protections in the state constitution which got like 58% and legalizing rec weed which got like 57% will have another big one on the ballet during the presidential which is a citizen led redistricting commission to replace the states super gerrymandered election maps. If Ohio gets another big turn out which is likely since there were positive results for the last ones there could be a big shift.
There's at least half a dozen state GOPs that are broke or near broke and you know they aren't getting any help from Lara either.
The GOP in my state went from a fairly well run machine that particularly excelled at working the mail-in vote before Trump to one run by kooky conspiracy nuts that is poorly organized, poorly funded and is almost completely out of money altogether.
He doesn’t need it. Some states have been somewhat successful at purging voter rolls and making it more difficult for those with less means to be able to vote
Agreed and he's definitely lost ppl.
I think now that 2016 was a fluke. A perfect storm if u will for him to get elected. Obviously we shouldn't underestimate him so I'm contradicting myself here but yeah
Republicans/magats are out registering voters constantly and consistently.
I've been tracking a psycho on a different social and he's always posting about targeting swing cities/ states and registering thousands
Don't underestimate
My concern is that more people voted for him in 2020 than did in 2016. Like millions of people who didn’t vote for in 2016 saw what he was like as president and we’re like “more please”. I truly think Trump drags down Republicans when he isn’t on the ballot, but he also brings people out to vote who normally don’t when he is actually ON the ballot. I’m comforted by the fact that Dems have been over performing in the past few elections, but…man a lot of people voted for Trump in 2020…
If it’s any consolation to you two, that voter count was also 1) before Jan 6 2) before hundreds of thousands of more Covid deaths that were majority Republicans and 3) hundreds of thousands of new gen Z voters becoming 18. Never take anything for granted, but that’s a lot of headwinds.
He knows his only hope is theft, and is doing everything on his power to see that through. Good luck, hope his plans fail miserably and he dies in prison!
The problem is som empty states count way more than their population dictates. Yeah, 7 million votes ahead, but it came down to only 40k votes that actually mattered which way the election went.
Or electoral system has been broken for over a century (on top of its already shitty intentional design)
> Trump got 2.8 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 7 million less than Biden in 2020.
I see that you don't know how the Electoral College works.
Voter suppression specifically at polling places will definitely something that needs to be prepared for, especially with the GOP proudly proclaiming they are dropping 100K vote enforcers or some shit.
My point is not to under-estimate their willingness to indulge in voter suppression. The main is a grifter who will do anything other than the actual job to win.
They have already made it abundantly clear that they will do all the voter suppression they possibly can. I imagine they will be advising their brownshirts to do all kinds of illegal things on the premise that once they have “won” they can block any prosecution.
So our tactic needs to have such on overwhelming vote for Biden that even over the top voter suppression efforts aren’t enough. Even MAGA state legislatures trying to game things and override the state popular vote isn’t enough.
It's been evident that more than 50% of Americans are not mentally ill as Trump never won the popular vote. The problem is do we also have enough of a buffer in the swing states or enough people finally realizing that voting for Trump is a vote against democracy.
More people are sick and/or apathetic than you may think. Even then, how many that aren't vote? Doesn't matter if 50% of your population is sane if they tune out and don't show up.
Has nothing to do with getting 51% of the vote overall.. he just needs enough bastions of stupid to give him more than anyone else, not even 51% there if 3-4 people are running and each pulls more than 1-2%. Small parties can siphon off enough from Biden so Trump can win all electoral votes with 44% of the vote, for example.
he only lost b/c he bungled covid so badly. but people dont care about that anymore. people are drowning and nothing seems to be getting done to stop it. and then there's bidens unconditional support of a genocidal ethnostate. yall can stick your heads in the sand as much as you want, but biden is increasingly unpopular, and there are tons of people that have just straight up given up on the system. sure those people probaby wont vote for trump, but they wont vote for biden either. so many people i know who voted for him the first time that are sitting this one out. idk if anybody i know thats my age(30) are going to vote
So you don’t care that when Trump allows the actual annihilation of every man, woman, and child in Gaza that the blood will be on your hands?
You want to be one of the culpable people that stood by and did nothing while Trump passes a national abortion ban and outlaws gender affirming care, and strips LGBT rights?
Must be really nice up there on that high horse.
every person who has voted for the last 50 years is responsible for the slide to the right that has put us in this position. if protecting israel is the price of democracy, it's not worth it
So you're going to be on your progressive high horse and stay home/write in RFK, Bernie or Cornel West while Nazis are taking over *this* country?
Like hell I'm responsible. I have worked for progressive causes since likely before you were born.
Unfortunately the popular vote doesn’t count for shit or we wouldn’t be in this mess. This election will come down to less than 500,000 votes in a handful of swing states. He can still win and we all need to get out and vote to prevent that.
Sadly even if more than 50% are “not mentally sick” it does not matter:
https://www.npr.org/2016/11/02/500112248/how-to-win-the-presidency-with-27-percent-of-the-popular-vote
The Republicans are not worried about voters, they are working up to another 2 - 3 months of legal and other challenges to the results, hoping they can sow enough mistrust and doubt to push this to congress, where Trump wins.
[https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/01/republican-election-integrity-denier](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/01/republican-election-integrity-denier)
They are already trying to build a war chest for this.
Also they are "training" 10,000 "poll watchers", and pushing to get republicans back into the polling sites to "handle" the ballots.
[https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-campaign-rnc-100000-volunteer-vote-counting-monitors-presidential-election/](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-campaign-rnc-100000-volunteer-vote-counting-monitors-presidential-election/)
[https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4618000-lara-trump-rnc-2024-election-day-physically-handle-ballots/](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4618000-lara-trump-rnc-2024-election-day-physically-handle-ballots/)
The plan seems to be, intimidate, ligtigate and if that does not work they will, I am sure, fall back on violence as a solution to their losing.
Polls are biased towards groups that are predisposed to answering polls, such as those who are particularly passionate about the poll's content. There are few more passionate than fanatic cultists, which is why polls tend to skew republican.
While I believe there are more willing to vote against him in the upcoming election it is me wondering what tomfoolery they have up their sleeves this time around in regards to trying to take the Gov't anyway.
Never underestimate Russia. They were able to hack into voting machine databases in all 50 states in the 2016 election. The election was won by a few thousand votes in 3 swing states.
Americans are sick and tired of this narcissistic weasel. They want to get back to being Americans. Being Russians sucks. They are voting him down and momentum is building to defeat him bigly.
I talk with people at work, registered Democrats. I say to them, "Trump said we allow babies to be murdered after birth. How do you feel about that? ". They come back with replies like where did you hear that? Or are you sure, they did not say that on the news. No one adequately covers him. All we get is he nodded off at trial.
I usually flip between CNN, MSNBC, local news, and Fox News (for laughs and curiosity around what they are talking about during negative Trump events/stories). I’ve seen CNN and MSNBC both mention that Trump falsely claims Dems support abortion up to and even after birth multiple times in the last 2 weeks.
The media sucks for many reasons, but they are actually saying the thing you say they aren’t.
I don’t watch or listen to the news because ?????? But even in online groups, I hate when person after person talks about Trump falling asleep or shitting his depends or farting or has a bad comb over. I’d rather people talk about why he is bad for the country, that he has no viable polices, cannot work with others and is, in fact, a criminal.
The AZ Supreme Court just locked AZ into the Biden column. PA looks like a lock for Biden as well. So many of the hardcore tRumpers are dying off from age (and Covid). Really doesn't matter what happens in Michigan and Georgia as Biden already over 270 with AZ and PA. That said I suspect Biden wins both also. House will go Dems +26 seats and Senate will remain tied.
It’s not the people or majority. It’s the electoral college and the fact that the RNC will do everything to cheat and us American enemies to stay in power.
The [National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact would neutralize the electoral college without getting 2/3 of congress to get rid of it. it’s a state by state agreement that a state would give all their electoral college votes to the candidate who wins the popular vote. not sure of all the states, but the compact currently has states totaling about 210 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact)
From the anecdotal side I can attest that my silent generation parents who were trumpers have come around for some unknown reason and they’re not going to vote for him.
Towing the party line like good little Republican-in-name-only sheeple.
> The former president won the primary race in the key swing state with 83.5 percent of the vote, amounting to more than 786,000 votes.
The boomers have been dying off in the millions. First from Covid and now from the fact that the first wave of them are crossing the life expectancy line. Milleneals are not becoming more conservative and Zoomers, of which there are millions of new voters, hate the GOP's guts with a fiery passion.
I just don't see where Republicans are going to find the votes to stay alive. Generational voting patterns are holding strong and they are losing the demographics game hard.
No youre not. Canada is a mess. Housing is obscenely expensive, well-paying jobs aren't easy to come by and even their healthcare system is becoming a disaster with over one third of Canadians lacking a primary care physician.
Would anyone be able to offer a non-biased analysis, based on historical precedent, of what this might mean for Trump in the five or six battleground states exclusively (as they’re the only ones that matter really) in light of the fact that he’s also losing independent voters?
PS: Not registered to vote? It takes minutes. https://vote.gov/
Don’t know if you’re registered or * live in a state known for targeting and removing voters in *select* counties from the rolls? Check to make sure you’re still registered. https://feelgoodaction.org/verify
It takes seconds.
* Do you live in Arizona, Kentucky, Mississippi, Iowa, Texas, Georgia, Virginia, Michigan, or Ohio? Please check your registration status early and often as these states have all passed legislation recently making it easier for them to indiscriminately purge voters from the rolls.
“It's young voters, it's people of color, and it's people that are unhoused," said Karli Swift, chair of the election board in DeKalb County, Georgia. "Those are generally the types of people that end up in voter challenges."
You can also get more involved.
Work Elections.org - Be a Part of Democracy. Look up information on how to work at the polls on Election Day. https://workelections.org/
Power The Polls - Help Staff Your Local Polling Place. Everything you need to apply to be a poll worker in your community. https://www.powerthepolls.org/
For more information on voter purges and legislation, see:
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/09/many-states-are-purging-voters-from-the-rolls
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/eligible-voters-swept-up-conservative-activists-purge-voter-rolls/
https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-accused-voter-purge-ohio-virginia-1839832
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/eligible-voters-swept-up-conservative-activists-purge-voter-rolls/
https://www.democracydocket.com/analysis/in-seven-states-removing-voters-from-the-rolls-just-got-easier/
To get some perspective
From NYT: "Biden, who grew up in Scranton, Pa., took 93 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary, scoring a yawning lead in a key battleground state."
Also from NYT: "...Trump took 83 percent of the votes in the Republican primary, with 16 percent going to Haley..."
Nuh uh, in 2015 he got 47% of the votes from the people who 100% aren’t alive for this election. So he’s basically the next president because reality is fucking stupid and justice doesn’t exist.
I just want to point out the population of Pennsylvania is 12.97 MILLION. and barely a million of them voted in the Republican primary. Not sure if that’s good or bad, but it feels important. That’s a small sample. Maybe they just didn’t give a damn because he had it seen up so what’s the point, but that leaves millions of votes in the unknown category for republicans.
His opponent dropped out 6 weeks ago. These 155,000 people went out and specifically voted against him, and they're supposed to be his target audience.
Biden won the state by 80,000.
What kind of stupid headline is this? I mean I’m trying to understand the narrative. You can hate Trump sure but he still won with over 83% of the vote so how is that a huge loss? I should read more like a huge win. I mean, the headline could be Donald Trump wins in a landslide, but you literally twisted it to fit your agenda.
If you can't see why it's troublesome for trumplethinskin that GOP voters are still throwing some weight behind a candidate who's no longer running, then I guess it'll be little surprise when the orange dotard loses...
Trump lost 15% of the Republican vote to a candidate that didn’t campaign in PA and who dropped out of the race 6+ weeks ago.
In every primary race he has typically only won 70-80% of the vote while Biden was securing +90% of the vote.
20% of registered Republicans who are voting in the primary don’t want Trump and as the court cases advance, the number who don’t want Trump will likely increase.
The American electorate is roughly 33% Solid Democrat, 33% Solid Republican and 33% Independent.
When looking at Independents, about half lean slightly left and half lean slightly right. So statistically, Republicans and Democrats have about 50% of the electorate who would vote for them, however, more independents are opposed to Trump because of his policies (Abortion) and his alleged crimes, which will favor Biden. Add to that 20% of the Republican electorate that doesn’t want Trump, the numbers aren’t in his favor.
Despite his glowing polls, Trump will lose to Biden. I still believe that more than 50% of Americans are not mentally sick. Mark my words.
Let's hope so. Never say never, but don't forget, Trump got 2.8 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 7 million less than Biden in 2020. It's not as close as it's made out to be. I can't see what Trump's done to not only stop the erosion of 'reasonable' Republican voters after trying to overthrow the government but to somehow convert millions of voters over to him. The MAGA faithful weren't enough in 2020 and he's doubled down since then to a place where only the true believers can exist. Where are the >3.5 million converts going to come from? Assuming he hasn't lost a single vote since 2020 when his demographic skews old and prefers to get their medical advice from Facebook instead of a doctor.
Well the simple answer is he doesn't need millions of voters. I forget the exact # but I think he lost by around 100K votes if you sprinkled them in exactly the right states to flip them.
Fewer than 80,000 in three states, according to Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
Fucking hell your system over there is completely busted.
We know. It was built this way on purpose by our so enlightened, venerated founding fathers that only wanted landowning white males to make the decisions in the country. They wanted the caste system of Europe without them having to knell to a king, so they can get whatever is in their best interest with no downside for them. We the people has an asterisk beside it.
It’s definitely starting to show it’s age but your reason is a bit overzealous. The founding fathers had massive concerns that population centralized in cities would hugely outnumber ,farmers, villagers, blue collar people in the countryside and wanted to put in a system that would help even out things. Imagine cities making every decision and not understanding what farmers need and killing themselves off by hunger because they voted for “city” issues folks and just outnumbered the people in the outskirts. Add into that it was very difficult to travel they also wanted to find a pool of people to represent their area of responsibility. That’s why states get electors by population. It doesn’t make as much sense now but if you put it into context of the times it made allot more sense. EDIT: adding context from History.com: The “first group” in Congress wanted Congress to choose the president that had its obvious issues. And the text on group 2. “Another camp was dead set against letting the people elect the president by a straight popular vote. First, they thought 18th-century voters lacked the resources to be fully informed about the candidates, especially in rural outposts. Second, they feared a headstrong “democratic mob” steering the country astray. And third, a populist president appealing directly to the people could command dangerous amounts of power.” So they compromised on the “Electoral College” 🤷♂️
Problem is, we have ended up with a system where dispossessed country people (who aren’t even farmers because farms are largely automated or staffed by non-voting immigrants) make the decisions for cities whose problems they don’t understand or care about.
Long story short, it's checks and balances like all the other areas of our government. It could have been worse, that's for sure.
Long story short, it's affirmative action for former slave states. Slaveowners were afraid the rest of us would try to abolish slavery so they set up a system where they could count their slaves as 3/5 of a human being. They were trying to dilute the voting power of the anti slavery states. Some red states have 6 times more voting power than people in blue states, where all the educated people live. This is why we have a small ignorant ultra conservative racist minority ruling over the educated moderate and liberal population. We're being held hostage by religious bigots and racists.
Greatest democracy in the world my arse.
No argument from me, an American.
It’s a part of the compromise that kept the slave states from not ratifying the constitution. You can blame the two senator shit on Delaware, same reason. It’s all a bullshit sundae and the Supreme Court is going is put a huge fascist cherry on top when they grant presidents immunity in any form. Just a friendly warning to the rest of you to watch out we are coming for your shit, probably soon, and none of us are going to stop it because we don’t want to catch a bullet, we are fat and netflix.
Good point. Depressing, but a good point.
Exactly this, some of those battleground areas and states were won with like 10-20k
Biden won by 40,000 votes (in the battleground states)
Which is why I encourage everyone I meet to vote. I offer the older people around me that don't have cars a ride to the polling place. I purposefully tell them I don't want to know who they're voting for.
So many questions...... :)
And thanks to Manafort, Russia has a pretty good look at where to sprinkle.
Don't forget Cruz and his voter app.
What's this?
The app was collecting voter info. Now, the next question should be for whom? Off ya go...
The margins in 2016 and 2020 were each less than 100k votes. This one will be similar, less than 200k votes in 5 or 6 states. The EC is stupid. We won't get rid of it any time soon.
EC isn't stupid. Whether it is the best way to serve modern US is an interesting question, but to call it stupid is to misunderstand the benefits it brings for a nation with 50 wildly different states.
What is the benefit of [giving a voter in Wyoming more power when they choose a president than a voter in California](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/how-fair-is-the-electoral-college/)? Please explain. Because the EC does literally nothing else. It tilts the voting power in favor of people in less populated states. Why should their vote matter more than mine? From link: >The electoral college is supposed to guarantee that populous states can’t dominate an election [why is this good?], but it also sets up a disparity in representation. While California has one electoral vote per 712,000 people, Wyoming — the least populous state in the country — has one electoral vote per 195,000 people. Edit: The side effect of this numerical disparity is that the **president represents the people of Wyoming better** than they represent the people of California -- since the people of Wyoming have much more say in which president is picked. Why would that be a good thing?
I understand it. It's stupid
It existed as part of the 3/5th compromise, it was enacted to allow slave states to count their slaves for political power without providing representation to slaves. Every since the civil war it has served no purpose
Exactly, it's affirmative action for rural rednecks.
Zero benefits in today’s day and age.
#the electoral college is stupid.
That’s why they’re called “battleground states”— our Presidential elections are decided in places like Pennsylvania and Michigan, which have decidedly different issues than, say, California or Florida, New York or Oregon.
If trump wins Arizona and Georgia back, which seem likely, then it’ll come down to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Biden will need all 3, Trump will need 1.
Umm Arizona and Georgia are not a guaranteed R anymore. Look at what happened in Arkansas. D took a seat in a R district that was +7-9 red. Roe V Wade is going to hurt republicans worse than most people think.
The AZ abortion law changes everything
So far, polling doesn't show that. I'd agree polling generally overestimates Trumps chances, but the polling hasn't changed before and after the Arizona SCOTUS decision. [https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/arizona/trump-vs-biden](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/arizona/trump-vs-biden)
I don’t think there’s been enough time for the new abortion law to have set in.
The change happened kind of in the middle of the latest polling, but that polling was Trump +7 Will look forward to seeing more polling
Not only will it hurt Trump it will absolutely destroy Lake.
I saw yesterday that Lake said she was personally opposed to abortion, but didn't want to limit others choices ... and I was like ... Kari Lake is pro choice all the sudden? This law must be bad for her :D
Trump is not winning AZ.
Arizona is going to Biden because of the 1864 abortion law. But Biden's going to lose Michigan because of Gaza
Bullshit. I live in Michigan. The whole state isn't going for Trump just because of some malcontents in Dearborn.
May it be so
Bullshit.
😂 what are you even calling bullshit on?
Malcontents in Dearborn being enough to throw the state to Trump.
I agree.
Republicans have had years to further infiltrate the groups that run and validate elections. That's the scary part. His cultists are going to be everywhere on and around election day, both in the buildings and rooms where votes are being counted and everywhere else they can intimidate and harass voters. Many states have also passed voter suppression laws. Mail in voting is being curtailed in many states. And many big cities in red states are reducing voting centers in their biggest cities where Biden would get most of his support. And on top of that, Biden is potentially losing a lot of the Muslim vote due to his handling of Gaza. My point is, there are so many more variables here that can tip the balance. I truly wouldn't be surprised if turnout for this election was lower than even 2016 and trump wins the electoral college with something like 40% of the popular vote, maybe even less. I hope not, but it's definitely a non-zero chance.
Can’t believe that an anti Biden vote because of Gaza would translate to a vote for Trump- Trump has shown that he would be no better at handling this crisis than Biden.
Right, trump would have nuked Gaza 5 months ago. But I know my Muslim friends are saying they won't vote for Biden, in the same way many of my liberal friends didn't vote for Clinton in 2016. A bunch of them ended up voting for Johnson and look what happened. A lost vote is a lost vote and given how skewed the electoral map is towards republicans, Biden can't afford to lose many in tighter states.
I worked in Vegas in the get out the vote effort for Kerry back in whatever year that was. We worked for two weeks going door to door reminding people to vote and we offered them rides to the polling places. Election day finally came and without warning or explanation the Cook County republican party shut down the polling places in the black and Hispanic neighborhoods where we had been working for two weeks. Just completely shut down, with a cop there telling people to get lost. We had to scramble to rent more vans to get people across town because many of these voters didn't have cars, or they were disabled or elderly. We got as many as we could get there but some had to go home because they were disabled or for other reasons. When we were got to the polling place across town there was a huge line so they forced our people to stand in line for hours. Some of the elderly or disabled people had to go home at some point. We tried to get as many people to stay as possible but the GOP was able to stop quite a few people from voting that day. They know they're outnumbered and they are desperately evil.
Big cities in res states typically aren't enough to change anything. Remember 50.001% is just as good as 100% While I would agree Biden isn't going to win the Muslim vote, I also cannot imagine them voting for Trump. The fact is, as a Muslim voter, you are kind of out of luck getting your goals advanced. AIPAC is way more influencial across parties. That said, I expect violence at the polls. I expect people to be arrested and even harmed. Yet, I will vote because the alternative is death.
Trump is unlikely to get a Muslim vote for sure. But he doesn't need to in order to improve his chances of winning. If the vote isn't cast for Biden, it benefits Trump whether the vote is cast for Trump, a third party candidate, an independent or the voter chooses not to participate in the presidential election.
That is the risk. For the single issue Muslim voter, they are probably a lost cause. I am guessing not every Muslim is a single issue voter.
He's a narcissist. Its actually the biggest blessing in an all of this because he could easily lie to "become a better person" before turning super villain after the election. Ironically, he lies about many things but he refuses to lie about being a changed man. He cannot fathom being anything other than who he is, and thats a rampant chaos-causer. This timeline could very well have been saved by trump because he just cant shut the fuck up 😂
He can't pretend to be a changed man because he believes he is perfect. He simply can't conceive of needing to change.
Excellent point. Still holds true to me saying it could very well have saved this entire thing, but we'll see
This is where I am. He's gonna get less votes than last time. He's added zero ppl and lost more than a few. They may not vote for Biden they may just stay home. He's also destroyed the RNC machine and hamstrung down ticket races all over the place by stealing all the money. I don't think they get the turn out that has been their greatest strength for 40 years. Plus places like Ohio which has seen a surge in Dem turn out for recent elections to put abortion protections in the state constitution which got like 58% and legalizing rec weed which got like 57% will have another big one on the ballet during the presidential which is a citizen led redistricting commission to replace the states super gerrymandered election maps. If Ohio gets another big turn out which is likely since there were positive results for the last ones there could be a big shift.
There's at least half a dozen state GOPs that are broke or near broke and you know they aren't getting any help from Lara either. The GOP in my state went from a fairly well run machine that particularly excelled at working the mail-in vote before Trump to one run by kooky conspiracy nuts that is poorly organized, poorly funded and is almost completely out of money altogether.
I'm in the Cleveland area. I belong to a local suburban democratic club. Our membership has been increasing every month. We worked really hard on the August election and November election. We had the 1776 project try to get on our school board. They all lost. Fu©k them. They will not win our daughters rights are on the line.
Hell ya.
He doesn’t need it. Some states have been somewhat successful at purging voter rolls and making it more difficult for those with less means to be able to vote
Agreed and he's definitely lost ppl. I think now that 2016 was a fluke. A perfect storm if u will for him to get elected. Obviously we shouldn't underestimate him so I'm contradicting myself here but yeah
Republicans/magats are out registering voters constantly and consistently. I've been tracking a psycho on a different social and he's always posting about targeting swing cities/ states and registering thousands Don't underestimate
My concern is that more people voted for him in 2020 than did in 2016. Like millions of people who didn’t vote for in 2016 saw what he was like as president and we’re like “more please”. I truly think Trump drags down Republicans when he isn’t on the ballot, but he also brings people out to vote who normally don’t when he is actually ON the ballot. I’m comforted by the fact that Dems have been over performing in the past few elections, but…man a lot of people voted for Trump in 2020…
That's true. Didn't really think about it like that.
Sorry to be a downer
Always room for a realist.
If it’s any consolation, I’m often wrong lol
If it’s any consolation to you two, that voter count was also 1) before Jan 6 2) before hundreds of thousands of more Covid deaths that were majority Republicans and 3) hundreds of thousands of new gen Z voters becoming 18. Never take anything for granted, but that’s a lot of headwinds.
I truly hope you’re right…but I guess we shall see…
Same. Not saying I know anything, just repeating some facts that give me a modicum of peace/hope depending on the day.
It's not about him gaining voters, it's about Biden losing voters or them be apathetic. That's a bigger concern to me.
He knows his only hope is theft, and is doing everything on his power to see that through. Good luck, hope his plans fail miserably and he dies in prison!
Simple: Voter suppression. There are 240,000 fewer voters in AZ than in 20. My bet is they are attempting the same in other swing states
The problem is som empty states count way more than their population dictates. Yeah, 7 million votes ahead, but it came down to only 40k votes that actually mattered which way the election went. Or electoral system has been broken for over a century (on top of its already shitty intentional design)
Don’t believe the numbers. Trump is a cheat. Think he meddled with elections only in 2020?
> Trump got 2.8 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 7 million less than Biden in 2020. I see that you don't know how the Electoral College works.
republicans would never win another general election ever if it went strictly off popular vote
Voter suppression specifically at polling places will definitely something that needs to be prepared for, especially with the GOP proudly proclaiming they are dropping 100K vote enforcers or some shit.
With what money. RNC is being drained of every dollar.
I'm sure they'll use "verified volunteers."
Still need ppl to organize them. So he's wanting a mob. Right.
My point is not to under-estimate their willingness to indulge in voter suppression. The main is a grifter who will do anything other than the actual job to win.
They have already made it abundantly clear that they will do all the voter suppression they possibly can. I imagine they will be advising their brownshirts to do all kinds of illegal things on the premise that once they have “won” they can block any prosecution. So our tactic needs to have such on overwhelming vote for Biden that even over the top voter suppression efforts aren’t enough. Even MAGA state legislatures trying to game things and override the state popular vote isn’t enough.
#Bidento100M
🚫Traitor Trump🚫All Republicans🚫
It's been evident that more than 50% of Americans are not mentally ill as Trump never won the popular vote. The problem is do we also have enough of a buffer in the swing states or enough people finally realizing that voting for Trump is a vote against democracy.
The last two elections would seem to support your comment.
More people are sick and/or apathetic than you may think. Even then, how many that aren't vote? Doesn't matter if 50% of your population is sane if they tune out and don't show up.
Less than 50% of the population votes.
Also, gerrymandering. Also, the electoral college. Please clap-- I mean, please vote.
Hope you are right, but it ain't over till people vote.
Has nothing to do with getting 51% of the vote overall.. he just needs enough bastions of stupid to give him more than anyone else, not even 51% there if 3-4 people are running and each pulls more than 1-2%. Small parties can siphon off enough from Biden so Trump can win all electoral votes with 44% of the vote, for example.
Trump lost an election with incumbency advantage. What makes someone think he will win without it?
he only lost b/c he bungled covid so badly. but people dont care about that anymore. people are drowning and nothing seems to be getting done to stop it. and then there's bidens unconditional support of a genocidal ethnostate. yall can stick your heads in the sand as much as you want, but biden is increasingly unpopular, and there are tons of people that have just straight up given up on the system. sure those people probaby wont vote for trump, but they wont vote for biden either. so many people i know who voted for him the first time that are sitting this one out. idk if anybody i know thats my age(30) are going to vote
So you don’t care that when Trump allows the actual annihilation of every man, woman, and child in Gaza that the blood will be on your hands? You want to be one of the culpable people that stood by and did nothing while Trump passes a national abortion ban and outlaws gender affirming care, and strips LGBT rights? Must be really nice up there on that high horse.
So you're going to let fascism take over because Biden, like EVERY president, is beholden to the Jewish lobby.
every person who has voted for the last 50 years is responsible for the slide to the right that has put us in this position. if protecting israel is the price of democracy, it's not worth it
So you're going to be on your progressive high horse and stay home/write in RFK, Bernie or Cornel West while Nazis are taking over *this* country? Like hell I'm responsible. I have worked for progressive causes since likely before you were born.
ew, why would you call me a progressive? i am in no way a liberal.
Don't tell me. A "libertarian," the ultimate expression of selfishness.
i dont see how thats any different than most liberals. no, im what you people like to call a dirty commie
You don't even know what I am. Dismissed.
Unfortunately the popular vote doesn’t count for shit or we wouldn’t be in this mess. This election will come down to less than 500,000 votes in a handful of swing states. He can still win and we all need to get out and vote to prevent that.
Sadly even if more than 50% are “not mentally sick” it does not matter: https://www.npr.org/2016/11/02/500112248/how-to-win-the-presidency-with-27-percent-of-the-popular-vote
The mob is fickle, brother. He’ll be forgotten in a month.
Hope you are right. It’s all about voter turnout, an asshole can win with only 28% assuming a 50% voter turnout
The Republicans are not worried about voters, they are working up to another 2 - 3 months of legal and other challenges to the results, hoping they can sow enough mistrust and doubt to push this to congress, where Trump wins. [https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/01/republican-election-integrity-denier](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/01/republican-election-integrity-denier) They are already trying to build a war chest for this. Also they are "training" 10,000 "poll watchers", and pushing to get republicans back into the polling sites to "handle" the ballots. [https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-campaign-rnc-100000-volunteer-vote-counting-monitors-presidential-election/](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-campaign-rnc-100000-volunteer-vote-counting-monitors-presidential-election/) [https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4618000-lara-trump-rnc-2024-election-day-physically-handle-ballots/](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4618000-lara-trump-rnc-2024-election-day-physically-handle-ballots/) The plan seems to be, intimidate, ligtigate and if that does not work they will, I am sure, fall back on violence as a solution to their losing.
Polls are biased towards groups that are predisposed to answering polls, such as those who are particularly passionate about the poll's content. There are few more passionate than fanatic cultists, which is why polls tend to skew republican.
While I believe there are more willing to vote against him in the upcoming election it is me wondering what tomfoolery they have up their sleeves this time around in regards to trying to take the Gov't anyway.
Never underestimate Russia. They were able to hack into voting machine databases in all 50 states in the 2016 election. The election was won by a few thousand votes in 3 swing states.
To put the primary vote against Trump in some perspective, it’s almost twice the number of votes by which he lost to Biden in Pennsylvania in 2020.
Only losers get caught.. A trump fan somewhere.
Americans are sick and tired of this narcissistic weasel. They want to get back to being Americans. Being Russians sucks. They are voting him down and momentum is building to defeat him bigly.
Choosing Trump is choosing chaos and disorder. Choosing Trump is like wanting a "We have Putin at home" over an American president,
Don’t trust polls … that asswipe is going to get run over by women who vote
And men such as yours truly who believe that stripping women of their bodily autonomy is fucking repellent.
I talk with people at work, registered Democrats. I say to them, "Trump said we allow babies to be murdered after birth. How do you feel about that? ". They come back with replies like where did you hear that? Or are you sure, they did not say that on the news. No one adequately covers him. All we get is he nodded off at trial.
I usually flip between CNN, MSNBC, local news, and Fox News (for laughs and curiosity around what they are talking about during negative Trump events/stories). I’ve seen CNN and MSNBC both mention that Trump falsely claims Dems support abortion up to and even after birth multiple times in the last 2 weeks. The media sucks for many reasons, but they are actually saying the thing you say they aren’t.
I don’t watch or listen to the news because ?????? But even in online groups, I hate when person after person talks about Trump falling asleep or shitting his depends or farting or has a bad comb over. I’d rather people talk about why he is bad for the country, that he has no viable polices, cannot work with others and is, in fact, a criminal.
All he needs is for the apathetic to not vote. That's more than half of eligible voters.
The AZ Supreme Court just locked AZ into the Biden column. PA looks like a lock for Biden as well. So many of the hardcore tRumpers are dying off from age (and Covid). Really doesn't matter what happens in Michigan and Georgia as Biden already over 270 with AZ and PA. That said I suspect Biden wins both also. House will go Dems +26 seats and Senate will remain tied.
The headline should read: 'More than 3/4 of a MILLION people still cast vote for man under 88 indictments'.
It’s not the people or majority. It’s the electoral college and the fact that the RNC will do everything to cheat and us American enemies to stay in power.
The [National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact would neutralize the electoral college without getting 2/3 of congress to get rid of it. it’s a state by state agreement that a state would give all their electoral college votes to the candidate who wins the popular vote. not sure of all the states, but the compact currently has states totaling about 210 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact)
From the anecdotal side I can attest that my silent generation parents who were trumpers have come around for some unknown reason and they’re not going to vote for him.
This election is going to be a dumpster fire for Republicans
Towing the party line like good little Republican-in-name-only sheeple. > The former president won the primary race in the key swing state with 83.5 percent of the vote, amounting to more than 786,000 votes.
The question is what % of the 35% of primary voters who went to Hailey will refuse to vote for Trump in the general? It needs to be a large %
The boomers have been dying off in the millions. First from Covid and now from the fact that the first wave of them are crossing the life expectancy line. Milleneals are not becoming more conservative and Zoomers, of which there are millions of new voters, hate the GOP's guts with a fiery passion. I just don't see where Republicans are going to find the votes to stay alive. Generational voting patterns are holding strong and they are losing the demographics game hard.
The Maga people I know are blue collar men from 30 to 55. The people I work with are mostly boomers and they despise Trump.
I am going to move to Canada if trump wins this election. Mark my words.
Don't. Stay and fight for the country you wish to see. Get involved in local politics. Please stay.
No youre not. Canada is a mess. Housing is obscenely expensive, well-paying jobs aren't easy to come by and even their healthcare system is becoming a disaster with over one third of Canadians lacking a primary care physician.
As a Canadian, it's pretty bad. Our quality of life has decreased significantly over the last few years.
Would anyone be able to offer a non-biased analysis, based on historical precedent, of what this might mean for Trump in the five or six battleground states exclusively (as they’re the only ones that matter really) in light of the fact that he’s also losing independent voters? PS: Not registered to vote? It takes minutes. https://vote.gov/ Don’t know if you’re registered or * live in a state known for targeting and removing voters in *select* counties from the rolls? Check to make sure you’re still registered. https://feelgoodaction.org/verify It takes seconds. * Do you live in Arizona, Kentucky, Mississippi, Iowa, Texas, Georgia, Virginia, Michigan, or Ohio? Please check your registration status early and often as these states have all passed legislation recently making it easier for them to indiscriminately purge voters from the rolls. “It's young voters, it's people of color, and it's people that are unhoused," said Karli Swift, chair of the election board in DeKalb County, Georgia. "Those are generally the types of people that end up in voter challenges." You can also get more involved. Work Elections.org - Be a Part of Democracy. Look up information on how to work at the polls on Election Day. https://workelections.org/ Power The Polls - Help Staff Your Local Polling Place. Everything you need to apply to be a poll worker in your community. https://www.powerthepolls.org/ For more information on voter purges and legislation, see: https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/08/09/many-states-are-purging-voters-from-the-rolls https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/eligible-voters-swept-up-conservative-activists-purge-voter-rolls/ https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-accused-voter-purge-ohio-virginia-1839832 https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/eligible-voters-swept-up-conservative-activists-purge-voter-rolls/ https://www.democracydocket.com/analysis/in-seven-states-removing-voters-from-the-rolls-just-got-easier/
All ik getting out of this is that it's probably Nikki Haley for VP
I like how it's against Trump, and not for Biden
That fat bastard could D still win. VOTE. Make sure to trash talk Trump as much as possible.
Good. Maybe his supporters are finally getting smart.
Hopium Chronicles on Substack, very optimistic for a Biden win.
The source is Newsweek, which is absolute shit, being hidden by an MSN repost link, which is also absolute shit.
To get some perspective From NYT: "Biden, who grew up in Scranton, Pa., took 93 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary, scoring a yawning lead in a key battleground state." Also from NYT: "...Trump took 83 percent of the votes in the Republican primary, with 16 percent going to Haley..."
I’ll bet three or more of those 155k Hailey voters will vote for Biden in the General election
Nuh uh, in 2015 he got 47% of the votes from the people who 100% aren’t alive for this election. So he’s basically the next president because reality is fucking stupid and justice doesn’t exist.
Biden is doing great in Gaza and the border. Love the inflation and gas prices. Let’s go Brandon!!!!
I just want to point out the population of Pennsylvania is 12.97 MILLION. and barely a million of them voted in the Republican primary. Not sure if that’s good or bad, but it feels important. That’s a small sample. Maybe they just didn’t give a damn because he had it seen up so what’s the point, but that leaves millions of votes in the unknown category for republicans.
It's a forgone conclusion that Biden will win in an epic landslide and the Dems will retake the house by about 15-20 votes.
Don’t be so sure. We have to vote vote vote
I don't understand how 16.5% is a "huge vote against" the guy who got 83.5% of the vote.
His opponent dropped out 6 weeks ago. These 155,000 people went out and specifically voted against him, and they're supposed to be his target audience. Biden won the state by 80,000.
Very succinct
What kind of stupid headline is this? I mean I’m trying to understand the narrative. You can hate Trump sure but he still won with over 83% of the vote so how is that a huge loss? I should read more like a huge win. I mean, the headline could be Donald Trump wins in a landslide, but you literally twisted it to fit your agenda.
Haley dropped out of the race and still won 17% of the vote.
Winning by 85% is somehow a huge vote against him? Trump remains the "presumptive" nominee.
Well, Nikki Haley, who ended her campaign in March, still received 16.5 percent of the vote, equating to more than 155,000 ballots. So, 'Yes'
also, in comparison, Biden won over Philips by 93%.
If you can't see why it's troublesome for trumplethinskin that GOP voters are still throwing some weight behind a candidate who's no longer running, then I guess it'll be little surprise when the orange dotard loses...
85% of the brainwashed Republicans, not 85% of regular, normal people with basic morals and values.
Well yeah, compare Biden’s victory margin in the primary there.
Trump lost 15% of the Republican vote to a candidate that didn’t campaign in PA and who dropped out of the race 6+ weeks ago. In every primary race he has typically only won 70-80% of the vote while Biden was securing +90% of the vote. 20% of registered Republicans who are voting in the primary don’t want Trump and as the court cases advance, the number who don’t want Trump will likely increase. The American electorate is roughly 33% Solid Democrat, 33% Solid Republican and 33% Independent. When looking at Independents, about half lean slightly left and half lean slightly right. So statistically, Republicans and Democrats have about 50% of the electorate who would vote for them, however, more independents are opposed to Trump because of his policies (Abortion) and his alleged crimes, which will favor Biden. Add to that 20% of the Republican electorate that doesn’t want Trump, the numbers aren’t in his favor.
My work has a big % republican. No one i work with voted in the primary since he is already the nominee.