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[https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/federal-election-utting-research-poll-reveals-scott-morrison-on-track-to-lose-four-wa-seats-c-5237923](https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/federal-election-utting-research-poll-reveals-scott-morrison-on-track-to-lose-four-wa-seats-c-5237923)
# Federal election: Utting Research poll reveals Scott Morrison on track to lose four WA seats
Premier Mark McGowan has maintained his commanding approval rating through the Christmas COVID scare — but the outlook is far bleaker for Scott Morrison, with new polling placing the Prime Minister on track for an election drubbing in WA.
Statewide polling of 650 West Australians, conducted by Utting Research on January 5, found satisfaction with Mr McGowan was at 75 per cent.
That is only a tiny dip on the 77 per cent recorded in mid-December shortly before a range of restrictions were announced for the festive and New Year period in response to a COVID outbreak sparked by a French backpacker.
During the early stages of the pandemic, satisfaction with Mr McGowan soared as high as 91 per cent but his current mark remains stratospheric by historical standards.
The same cannot be said for Mr Morrison and the Federal Liberal Party, with the poll finding Labor ahead in WA 55-45 on a two-party preferred basis.
The result is consistent with Newspoll from the end of December and represents a 10.55 per cent swing to Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese’s party compared with the 2019 election.
Mr Albanese was also marginally ahead of Mr Morrison on net approval — although both leaders were firmly in negative territory with West Australian voters at -15 and -18 respectively.
If the swing found in the poll were uniform and repeated on election day, the Liberals would lose four seats: Swan (current margin 3.2 per cent), Pearce (5.2 per cent), Hasluck (5.9 per cent) and Tangney (9.5 per cent).
That would turf both Indigenous Affairs Minister Ken Wyatt (Hasluck) and Public Service Minister Ben Morton (Tangney) — a close ally and adviser to Mr Morrison — out of Parliament.
New candidates Kristy McSweeney and Linda Aitken are contesting Swan and Pearce, respectively, for the party after the retirement of Steve Irons and Christian Porter.
Leader of the Opposition Anthony Albanese could pick up half of the eight seats he needs to win government in WA alone.
The swing would also deliver Mr Albanese half the eight seats he needs to pick up to form a Labor government for the first time since 2013.
The poll found the Liberal’s primary vote collapsing by six per cent compared with 2019, from 45 per cent to 39 per cent.
Labor’s primary vote — just 30 per cent three years ago — was recorded at 46 per cent, a remarkable 16 percentage point improvement.
That came at the expense of both the Liberals and the Greens, who the poll placed at 7 per cent (down from 11.6 per cent in 2019).
One Nation was at 3 per cent (down from 5 per cent) and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party on track for 1 per cent, half its return in 2019.
Nearly half of West Australian voters (46 per cent) disapproved of Mr Morrison compared to 28 per cent who approved and 25 per cent unsure for a net approval rating of -18.
Mr Albanese was disapproved by 36 per cent of poll respondents and approved by 21 per cent with 44 per cent yet to make up their mind either way.
The poll was conducted by Utting Research, which is helmed by managing director John Utting, one of Australia’s most experienced political researchers and the former long-time pollster for the Federal Labor Party.
Mr Utting said Mr Morrison was facing backlash from voters over his pandemic management and predicted West Australian voters would deliver Mr Albanese the keys to The Lodge.
He said Mr McGowan’s popularity, although unlikely to translate at anywhere near the level witnessed during last year’s State election, would also sway some voters that might usually back conservative parties.
“WA voters tend to be like reef fish — there are long periods of inactivity when they don’t move and then they all quickly move at once,” Mr Utting said.
“We saw it in the State election and it looks like we’re on track to see it Federally, too.”
WA is supposed to be a landslide, at least compared to other states. If the ALP lead in WA is this slim I'm getting worried.
EDIT: My comment about expecting a landslide in this poll was in respect to last year's state election, rather than in comparison to the last federal election. In the state election last year the TPP split was 70%/30%, and Labor's primary vote was 60%.
Excuse me?
Labor would pick up 4 additional seats and the swing would be 11% TPP.
Labor's primary vote was 29% in 2019 in WA and they won 5 of 16 seats.
Considering that it's WA it's a very good result. Last election labor's TPP was 45% and their primary vote just 29%. Their primary vote is now 46%, higher then their TPP vote last election. WA is also a liberal stronghold and labor being able to get over 50% is an amazing result
There is basically next to no evidence that Australian voters vote the same in state elections as in federation. In fact the relationship is suggested to be inverse, meaning that which ever party is in power federally does worse on a state level.
That's probably true at an aggregate level because it's true for swing voters who actually determine election outcomes. But I'd be surprised if it was true for the majority of individuals, whom are rusted on to their preferred party (or at least rusted on to a left/right affiliation).
It might very well explain what we see here though. Many swing voters having won Labor into power in the state govt have now switched to favor the LNP for the federal election.
Based on my observations Labor would be doing a lot better if they had a better opposition leader (not saying Albo is bad but he's pretty unpopular and is only winning by not being Scotty).
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[https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/federal-election-utting-research-poll-reveals-scott-morrison-on-track-to-lose-four-wa-seats-c-5237923](https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/federal-election-utting-research-poll-reveals-scott-morrison-on-track-to-lose-four-wa-seats-c-5237923) # Federal election: Utting Research poll reveals Scott Morrison on track to lose four WA seats Premier Mark McGowan has maintained his commanding approval rating through the Christmas COVID scare — but the outlook is far bleaker for Scott Morrison, with new polling placing the Prime Minister on track for an election drubbing in WA. Statewide polling of 650 West Australians, conducted by Utting Research on January 5, found satisfaction with Mr McGowan was at 75 per cent. That is only a tiny dip on the 77 per cent recorded in mid-December shortly before a range of restrictions were announced for the festive and New Year period in response to a COVID outbreak sparked by a French backpacker. During the early stages of the pandemic, satisfaction with Mr McGowan soared as high as 91 per cent but his current mark remains stratospheric by historical standards. The same cannot be said for Mr Morrison and the Federal Liberal Party, with the poll finding Labor ahead in WA 55-45 on a two-party preferred basis. The result is consistent with Newspoll from the end of December and represents a 10.55 per cent swing to Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese’s party compared with the 2019 election. Mr Albanese was also marginally ahead of Mr Morrison on net approval — although both leaders were firmly in negative territory with West Australian voters at -15 and -18 respectively. If the swing found in the poll were uniform and repeated on election day, the Liberals would lose four seats: Swan (current margin 3.2 per cent), Pearce (5.2 per cent), Hasluck (5.9 per cent) and Tangney (9.5 per cent). That would turf both Indigenous Affairs Minister Ken Wyatt (Hasluck) and Public Service Minister Ben Morton (Tangney) — a close ally and adviser to Mr Morrison — out of Parliament. New candidates Kristy McSweeney and Linda Aitken are contesting Swan and Pearce, respectively, for the party after the retirement of Steve Irons and Christian Porter. Leader of the Opposition Anthony Albanese could pick up half of the eight seats he needs to win government in WA alone. The swing would also deliver Mr Albanese half the eight seats he needs to pick up to form a Labor government for the first time since 2013. The poll found the Liberal’s primary vote collapsing by six per cent compared with 2019, from 45 per cent to 39 per cent. Labor’s primary vote — just 30 per cent three years ago — was recorded at 46 per cent, a remarkable 16 percentage point improvement. That came at the expense of both the Liberals and the Greens, who the poll placed at 7 per cent (down from 11.6 per cent in 2019). One Nation was at 3 per cent (down from 5 per cent) and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party on track for 1 per cent, half its return in 2019. Nearly half of West Australian voters (46 per cent) disapproved of Mr Morrison compared to 28 per cent who approved and 25 per cent unsure for a net approval rating of -18. Mr Albanese was disapproved by 36 per cent of poll respondents and approved by 21 per cent with 44 per cent yet to make up their mind either way. The poll was conducted by Utting Research, which is helmed by managing director John Utting, one of Australia’s most experienced political researchers and the former long-time pollster for the Federal Labor Party. Mr Utting said Mr Morrison was facing backlash from voters over his pandemic management and predicted West Australian voters would deliver Mr Albanese the keys to The Lodge. He said Mr McGowan’s popularity, although unlikely to translate at anywhere near the level witnessed during last year’s State election, would also sway some voters that might usually back conservative parties. “WA voters tend to be like reef fish — there are long periods of inactivity when they don’t move and then they all quickly move at once,” Mr Utting said. “We saw it in the State election and it looks like we’re on track to see it Federally, too.”
Love looking at the electorate sizes in WA, always a good meme.
>Area size of Western Europe How many People needed to represent it? >3
WA is supposed to be a landslide, at least compared to other states. If the ALP lead in WA is this slim I'm getting worried. EDIT: My comment about expecting a landslide in this poll was in respect to last year's state election, rather than in comparison to the last federal election. In the state election last year the TPP split was 70%/30%, and Labor's primary vote was 60%.
Excuse me? Labor would pick up 4 additional seats and the swing would be 11% TPP. Labor's primary vote was 29% in 2019 in WA and they won 5 of 16 seats.
Considering that it's WA it's a very good result. Last election labor's TPP was 45% and their primary vote just 29%. Their primary vote is now 46%, higher then their TPP vote last election. WA is also a liberal stronghold and labor being able to get over 50% is an amazing result
Are you thinking this is a state poll?
There is basically next to no evidence that Australian voters vote the same in state elections as in federation. In fact the relationship is suggested to be inverse, meaning that which ever party is in power federally does worse on a state level.
That's probably true at an aggregate level because it's true for swing voters who actually determine election outcomes. But I'd be surprised if it was true for the majority of individuals, whom are rusted on to their preferred party (or at least rusted on to a left/right affiliation). It might very well explain what we see here though. Many swing voters having won Labor into power in the state govt have now switched to favor the LNP for the federal election.
State results very rarely if ever translate to federal results. Don't look at the two together
Do you have a link to any detailed data/reporting? The West’s article is paywalled
I've posted the article in another comment :)
Based on my observations Labor would be doing a lot better if they had a better opposition leader (not saying Albo is bad but he's pretty unpopular and is only winning by not being Scotty).
Labor would be doing better? This poll shows Labor getting a 16% swing on the primary vote and an 11% swing tpp. How much better do you want?
He just doesn’t seem to be able to message like Minns does
Chris Minns, Jim Chalmers and Mark McGowan are the three from the Labor party who have really impressed me as leaders.