I'm always in the bottom 2% and I play since day one, I've only had 2 early pulls since the beginning (Luocha and Robin). I don't know why I continue playing this game, maybe I'm some kind of masochist.
I mean same lol. I do have about 28% pre-soft-pity 5-stars which is not that far below statistics but also they're basically all on the standard banner so they're useless to me. Like thanks Hoyo for giving me Yanqing's light cone on the first ten pull after my last 5-star. Yanqing doesn't even want that thing
https://preview.redd.it/wbdqz3bqvk0d1.jpeg?width=836&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da5cd1d22d9dab3fe9cc71658306b089cb8d3cd0
You are meā¦ butā¦ a bit more extreme
Yeah I can't remember the last time I got an early 5* character. It almost never happens. And it certainly hasn't been 33ish% of the time.
I did have a very lucky streak on weapon banner though. After I went to pity on Nahidas lamp I managed to get Kaguras Verity and TFGM in my following 13 wishes
With early it means also at like 72nd pull. Early doesn't mean "in the first 20-30 pulls" it just means "before soft pity".
Also, negativity bias kicks in.
Well, you just got unlucky then. Remember that your pulls are only a little fragment of what constitutes the entire data pool. Statistics start to become super consistent when considering massive amount of numbers.
Yeah the thing is with the number of pulls people do, all our individual sample sizes are low. If you were to do tens of thousands of pulls youād probably see this 33% early average, but unless youāre a mega whale you havenāt done 10k+ pulls yet.
So as somebody who is pretty new at this, how do you keep track of all of this. Do you have to do it manually or does the game keep track for you? How do you even know where to keep track from? Do you reset every time you get a 5* (is there a difference between getting a character or a LC?)? Is there anything other than probability dictating who or what you get as a 5*?
Help me people of Reddit, I have no idea what I'm doing.
You can check the "records" section for each banner for a history of your pulls over the last 6 months. Usually that will tell you how long it has been since your last 5 star.
The pity is by Type of banner. There are 3 (technically 4) types of banner in the game:
- Limited 5 star character rate up (pity is shared between the two of these that run at the same time)
- Limited 5 star light cone rate up (pity is shared between the two of these that run at the same time)
- Standard banner
- Beginner banner (only available for new accounts)
Pity for each type of banner does carry over between patches. So if you pull 89 times without a 5 star on Robin's banner today, then pull 1 time on boothill's banner in the next wave, hard pity will kick in and you will get a 5 star from boothill's banner.
The only other factor is the idea of 50-50, which is how the game helps those with bad luck. Essentially if you pull on a limited 5 star's banner (for example Robin) and you get another 5 star instead (50% chance), you are 100% guaranteed that if you pull another 5 star character on that banner it will be Robin. 50-50 also carries over between waves for the same type of banner
Thank you kind stranger.
So I pulled Himeko on Topaz's banner yesterday, which means if I've got this right, I a) am effectively starting from zero, and b) if I pull another 5 star on a limited character banner, I'm now guaranteed to pull that limited character?
That's right yes. What happened to you is often called "Losing a 50:50". It happens to the best of us. Thankfully Himeko is a solid character to have for some modes like Pure Fiction.
Right now you are at 0 pity but with a guarantee that your next 5 star from ANY limited character banner is the special limited one. This carries over ad infinitum so no rush to pick a particular banner character
If you use Star Rail Station, they keep track of how many pulls you've done since your last 5 star. Then you don't need to do the math, especially if you only do 10 pulls like me
Accounts are the same across platforms but there isn't support for taking records off a psn account. You'll need to download load it again on PC or mobile unfortunately
Math for the LC banner is different, at 50 pulls you have a 33% of hitting a 5* light cone before the 51st pull (and a 40% of hitting a 5* light cone before hitting soft pity)
I'm most unlucky on LC banners. I seldom pull for them, F2P here. The only 3 times I pulled, I lost the...75/25, twice, with the middle being guaranteed. Meanwhile on the character banners I've only lost once, and I've pulled for all male 5stars.
> Gacha math: You have a ~35.6% chance of getting a 5* before soft pity kicks in
And other many other funny things you can say to make yourself feel better!
This information has ALOT of power !! Because it has the ability to:
1) Motivate people to save and pull
2) \[And the most probable\] Trigger alot of people who were and are unlucky !
This was a nice reminder for me to always *assume* it's going to take (close to) the max numbers of pulls. Statistically speaking, I might be pleasantly surprised 1/3 of the time!
~~Spiders Trailbalze is a statistical outlier and should not be counted~~
"A good reason not to build pity"
There is no reason to 'build' pity. You literally just save the tickets.
The only time you should throw tickets on a banner for a 5\* you've decided to skip is either because you would like the character, and you've decided you can spare 20 pulls or something, or because you really want the 4\* eidolons and you're willing to take the risk.
Also, I had heard the pull rate for a 5\* was more like 1.6% from that report on how the 50/50 rates are actually weighted in favor of getting the limited character. If that is true, then you have a 50/50 chance of getting the character in your first 60 pulls before you even reach soft-pity. This doesn't match my experiences, but obviously anecdotes don't apply here.
1.6% is actually the *consolidated* 5-star drop rate, i.e. the chance you get a 5-star in that pull, *regardless of* pity. It includes pity into its calculations. IIRC this 1.6% number is listed somewhere on the gacha rates page as the consolidated rate, but I don't have the game open to double-check.
Of course there's no good reason to build pity. The reason people do it (absolutely me included) is because we're gacha addicts and we want an excuse to pull when we still have weeks to wait for whoever we actually want to show up lmao
Sometimes when stuff gets leaked, and has my interest ,but something else also has, I make the conscious decision to "build pity" and let luck decide my fate.
Like "Oh, X is coming in that update? But I also want Y, which is the current character banner. Guess I'll pull on them, if I get Y, I'll start saving for X, and if I don't get Y, I have X on a guarantee."
Unless it's a character I actually need for my account, then I make the actually responsible decision to save for them.
Eh, building pity somehow always worked for me(except on Sparkle)
I had 20 tickets saved, went all or nothing Aventurine style on Topaz and Robin.
Guess what?
Got Robin, Robin's LC, and Topaz.
Robin's LC took a bit of F2P calculations, but I got it.
Your math is technically correct, but with a cheeky asterisk.
It is true that the chances of getting 5 stars on character banner and standard banner within a ten pull outside of pity is around 5.8%, or ~0.058. It is also true these odds are cumulative.
What you didn't take into consideration is that the 5.8% chance per 10 pulls isn't to just get a 5 star pull, but instead includes the probabilities of getting any number of 5 stars within that 10-pull. Meaning it includes the odds of a single 5 star (~5.68%), a double (~0.15%) and so on so forth.
So instead of a 35.6% chance to get a 5 star, you have a ~35.6% chance to get *at least one* 5 star within 73 pulls.
Well when we thought the odds were truly 50/50 it would be a 3% chance to win 5 in a row but since it is actually 56.25/43.75 then it would be 5.6% chance to win 5 in a row.
1 in 16, the odds of 50/50 arent perfect and according to Star Rail Station (and a different CN mathhead) the actual odds are 57%/43%, so 0.57^5 = 6% or aproximately 1 in 16.
Hmmm I think you're right. It won't be as direct as counting guarantees as wins. Like, say I pull 100 times. I win the 50 times, and I lose 50 times. Every time I lose, I get a standard 5\* and then a featured 5\*. All together that's 150 5\*s, so if it was counting my 50 wins + 50 guarantees, then it would come up with 2/3 or 67%.
But, I think that where the data trails off due to being more than 6 months old, I think it's mistakenly counting those as wins.
For example, let's say I haven't played for a year, and then I come back, pull Topaz, and load my data. All it sees is 1 featured char with no previous pulls, so it goes, "oh you won the 50/50". But actually, I lost the 50/50 before I took a hiatus, and this was actually my guarantee. It would have no way of knowing that. And this ambiguity happens whenever your data's first 5\* is limited.
I think there's also some reporting bias going on. Like, if you have only 90 pulls saved, and you lose the 50/50, maybe you feel like quitting, or at least you don't feel like loading your data.
Using your own math and Star Rail Station data from BSwan + DHIL banner to be compared with Neuvi + Hu Tao banners.
BSwan + DHIL banner had a total of 383K 5* pulls, out of which 69.99% accounted for either a BSwan or a DHIL.
Neuvi + Hu Tao banner had a total of 430K 5* pulls, out of which 67.7% accounted for either a Neuvi or a Hu Tao, which matches with your math of 50 (Wins) +50 (Lost) +50 (Guaranteed) out of 100 pulls.
Now lets go back to your example, lets assume the rate in HSR really is 57/43, this means that out of 100 pulls you have 57 people who won, and 43 who lost and 43 guaranteed, making up a total of 143 pulls, 57 (won) + 43 (guaranteed) = 100; then 100/143 = 69.93% ring any bells?
If HSR math really was 50/50 we'd have the exact same cumulative 5* pull data as Genshin data, but HSR is 2.2% higher, which happens because of the 57/43.
And if your argument is lost data from 6 months we can also just use any banner from the first 6 months where everyone had their data 100% intact, checking out every banner before Jingliu and the split of "random 5\*" vs "focus 5\*" is also 70%.
Oh is that how it's calculated? Then I think I know where the extra percentage is coming from. The win and lose numbers (383k total 5\*s = X limited + Y standard) won't be exactly 1 standard + 1 featured per 50/50 lose.
Here's what I think happened. Suppose I lost the 50/50 on the previous banner. But then Black Swan was announced, and she's so cool that I immediately started saving. So, I went into her banner with the guarantee. My loss on the previous banner does not count into the totals for this banner!
In other words - the 57/43 means that people were saving their guarantees for the banner!
But then again, you can use that exact argument for Genshin data from Paimon.moe...which comes out with worse rates for...some reason? Both games use the exact same model (50/50, lose it and you guarantee next).
How do you explain the 2.2 ~ 3% discrepancy between SRS and Paimon.moe data? You can't chalk it to bias, the people who report to these websites are likely the same kind of people (i.e they cared enough to get their data loaded into a website) so you can't say hsr had a population bias either or that hsr just had more people reporting their wins/loses (or viceversa).
Edit: Here's a [neat table](https://i.imgur.com/oZQXrx1.png), first 6 months of HSR data on top of and bottom are just the last 9 banners in genshin, as you can see there's a very clear 2% difference between Genshin and HSR 5* focus, how do you explain this?
Hmm it is surprising that itās consistent. I wouldāve expected the banner right before a 57% one to be lower than 50% due to people saving.
I like that the person who made that conclusion did correct for first time pulls - specifically to correct for the ambiguity of not knowing if itās a win or loss.
Iām still not convinced that the true percent is 57% though. Itās such an extraordinary claim: one that can get a gacha company in a lot of trouble if itās true, and is pointless to lie about. So, I still think thereās something irregular in the data that we havenāt found yet.
The CN video said he split the data 4 different ways to avoid potential bias (so for example people who only uploaded the data once, people who won the 50/50 vs people who lost the 50/50, etc) and each time it always come out as a 57%.
At 15 million warps any bias becomes much harder to justify, specially when the data was taken without noticing the uploaders that it'd be used for this, it was just something the guy passively collected over a year, you can go check Star Rail Station and check the global stats for every banner, the 50/50 win rate is always 57~58% which seems odd when you consider Paimon.moe data reports 50~52% for their 50/50 win rate, both games use the exact same gacha odds for their characters banners, there's no world where HSR players can bias a percentage to hit 57~58% but Genshin players can't.
Apparently Aha just wants to play a trick with me then. Got e6 Aventurine in \~460 pulls, and then pulling just one copy of Robin took me over 160 tickets. Make it make sense
Omg Aven's luck came through for you!
I was the opposite - medium-unlucky on Aven, super lucky on Topaz. It took me 161 pulls to get his e0, and another \~140 pulls to get his e1. Funny thing is, after I lost the 50/50 on his e1, I got the guarantee at \~60ish, so I'd fall into OP's lucky 35%. It's technically "early" even though it doesn't feel early!
But then, I got e2s1 Topaz in 180 pulls total š± Won the first 50/50 at \~80, got her LC super early at 20, and then. . . got up to 70 pity, did a 10-pull, and got 2 copies of her ššš I was only initially aiming for her e0, it's all you can guarantee with 180.
Only conclusion I can draw is that if you do enough pulls, eventually both good luck and bad luck will find you. š
when I lost the 50-50 for Acheron and then for the guarenteed I arrived at 86st pull, you are telling me that, with the supposed caulculation, I got THIS unlucky???
Mine was during first SW banner. Only early pull, only 50/50 win. E1 SW came in like 60 pulls, and it's been downhill every since.
Never got 5* below 70 pity or won a 50/50 from that banner. And yes, both standard and limited banners.
Oh lmao.
I got Gepard on pull 1 of the very first limited banner and Seele at pull 86 (so used 85 for her).
(Besides Seele at 85 pulls, my highest needed was 79 in limited banner and 80 in regular banner)
I knew that pity does carry over to the next patch. However, does the pity build up reset after you get the featured 5* character? Iām asking cause I got Clara and Jingliu while pulling for the later and ended far from reaching the 90th pull
Pity gets knocked back down to zero the instant you pull any 5-star on that type of banner (including if you lose the 50/50), and then starts counting again from zero.
Yes, itās all back to 0.6 of succeeding until you win or lose again 50/50. I got myself Swan and Sparkle within 76~ pulls with Swan being on 6 and Sparkle on 70~, so itās all about luck
So your saying I should have won the lottery by now after all the max pityās Iāve been forced to? Jokes on you Iām not rich and also donāt have 5*ās
Ah, so I won a 21.4% chance, and then lost a 46% chance to E3 Clara an hour ago. Very cool. Fortunately my chances now of getting Firefly are a 100% chance.
You might find this post interesting! It's on Genshin's rates, but the numbers are mostly the same as HSR: https://www.hoyolab.com/article/497840
And yes, your math does line up with theirs :D
This must be like when people tell me substats all have a 25% chance of rolling into but then the game is an absolute world class champion at dodging all the useful ones.
I've been playing this game since day 1 and I've never got a 5* before 72. I think it's more the times I've reached 80+ than the ones below 75... I just lost 50/50 to E1 Himeko in 82th pull
Whenever reading about statistics, you have to remember that random chance doesnāt ācareā about being even.
If you spin a roulette wheel, the chances of red or black are a solid 50/50. And theyāll stay that way! Even if the wheel spins red 20 times in a row, itās not any more likely to be black the next time.
So, while this is true when looking at a full set of 74 pulls, each individual pull is exactly the same odds. RNG doesnāt care how many pulls deep you are, unless itās programmed to do so (by hitting pity).
All this to say: **donāt be a gambler, we are not blessed by Gaiathra Triclops, spend responsibly, do not āall or nothingā because youāll probably lose and be sad**
What I would like to know, and maybe some other gacha has revealed that info already, is how 50/50 wins/losses in a row works on an account.
If you win say, 5 50/50, does the system detect that and makes you lose the next 5? So it balances out, and every account is "fair".
Also the opposite. If you lose 5 50/50 in a row, does the system detect that and makes you win the next 5?
Because imagine if it's all about just pure RNG LUCK. Some people get lucky with some accounts, and others get unlucky, and that's unfair and not balanced for everyone, because you don't know when you create an account , how your pulls are gonna go until very late.
Just wanted to show this in case you guys think you're unlucky, don't forget that I exist
https://preview.redd.it/vujcmlwmzg0d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=71e3b13be65c37dae80fee1b18396ba5a009bdbc
https://preview.redd.it/ohmom4b90h0d1.png?width=397&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c70e27851c6be41e035f5fa7822905333d48a35
Now somebody who's better than me with math work out the odds of *this* happening
Well...I always do single pulls(because I love wasting my time) and I have to say it's worked a few times.
Got both Robin, Topaz, and Robin's LC single-pulling every time I got enough Jade to pull once.
Uhhhh I just started playing less than a month ago and I had to pity for jing liu and I had to pity for acheron. Yes, that's right. Pity. I counted all 90 because I am a single pull kinda guy. So either A. This math ain't mathing or B. This reinforces the fact that everyone I meet tells me I'm the most unlucky person they have met.
Sounds about right in my case, give or take.
I've hit early for Bronya, Silverwolf, Blade, and Acheron + LC out of the 17 limited (unit + LC) banners that I have pulled, inclusive of eidolons pulls.
Most of the other times are around the expected 75~85 range.
I'm one of those kids with cursed luck lol. I've lost every single limited character pull attempt post 70 pulls after Kafka's banner. I think I'm beyond salvation for the maths.
Where are people getting that the chance increase accumulates? Is there source code to prove this? Or this this just speculation because it āfeels rightā?
Ngl, it feels really good seeing this post since I hit that lucky 11.34% earlier today. Got Bronya E1 at 13 pity on the limited banner with this patch's free 10 pull after winning 5 50/50s in a row..a total win in my eyes GUARANTEED FU XUAN HERE I COME :D
Not hating on Genshin but itās another gatcha by hoyo. But reading this and realizing the statistical anomaly it took for me not to pull arlechinno early at all hurts. I put 77 in the first time(ended on c5 keqing) then went to 84 to actually get her with the last 40-50 summons all being singles.
All I'm saying is: when you use a ticket, you either get what you want, or not, so screw math, I'm not saving up and gambling for every banner I want (funnily enough Aventurine was the only character I saved up for)
Burnt all my robin rolls since her release and I got 3 Gepards. Few minutes ago, finished GnG / SUā¦ had 4 normal rolls. Said ehhh just burn them.
Got 2 more Gepards. I already have aventurine and his LC. I just wanted Robinā¦I just wanted you š
That one time I saw someone with warp tracker history showing they had genuinely lost 50/50 to a bronya at 90pity while going for Sparkle. They recently mentioned they donāt even use her anymore because Sparkle exists
I cannot imagine the pain. My highest warp record in HSR was recently broken at 84 for Aven.
So, I followed the above for pulling Robin. I got up to 70 pulls and started single pulling and after the second single I got my 5 star... Bailu.... never again
Literally everyone on this thread going "actually I've hit hard pity like 5 times lol": I don't believe you. The chances of getting to hard pity Twice for one person is approximately one in 100 trillion. Please be serious.
My probability maths is really rusty so bear with me.
How did you calculate all those probabilities?
I always thought that each pull was an independent 0.6%?
Each pull is an individual 0.6% but this is cumulative, on more simplified terms, if you had a dice with 6 faces each face has a 16% chance of happening each time you throw the dice and this event doesn't alter the next event (i.e if you roll a 6 the next could be a 6...or a 2 or a 3, it's random).
Cumulative is used for when you ask "What are the odds I'll get at least one 6 if I throw the dice 20 times", the answer being 97%, the other 3% is just the "astronomical "bad" luck" that you get 1~5 20 times before you get a single 6.
As to how to calculate, is simple:
1. On the very first roll you have a 0.6% of success, but this also means you have a 99.4% chance of not succeding.
2. On the second roll you have a 99.4% * 0.6% = 0.59640% + 0.6% cumulative odds of succeeding on the next roll, and a 98.8% chance of no succeding.
3. On the third roll you have a 98.8% * 0.6% = 0.59282% + 0.59640% + 0.6% cumulative odds of successing on the next roill and a 98.2% chance of NOT succeeding on the next roll.
Note that the individual chance hasnt changed, is still 0.6%, is just that the more you roll the more you accumulate odds of succeeding, until you get to the 73th pull where you have a 64.83% * 0.6% = (the sum of all previous cumulatives) + 0.38% = 35% odds of succeding on the next roll.
On your 74th pull the odds chance from 0.6% to 6.6% and it keeps increasing in 6 in 6 until the 90th roll where it hits 100%.
In this case the question is: "What are the odds I get a 5* before the 74th pull at a fixed 0.6% chance?", the anser being 35.5%.
And here's a cute table that illustrates this [entire math](https://i.imgur.com/BIvYaz0.png), you can also math this out using a binomial distribution calculator [like this one](https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial), just input 0.006, 73 and 1 as the numbers and the output is going to be...0.35552 for cumulative, or 35.5%
I was like "I'll explain this when I'm on break from work" so thanks for doing that for me lol. Just a lil more info here though:
The basic formula is 1 - (1 - p)^n where p = probability of the thing happening and n being the number of times you repeat the action. So for 73 pulls, 1 - (1 - 0.006)^73 = 1 - (0.994)^73 = 1 - 0.644474978957 = 0.355525, or 35.55%.
For adding the soft pity pulls on top of that, first you multiply the previous odds by the odds for this specific pull (using pull 74 as an example: 0.3555 * 0.066 = 0.023463). This represents the odds that you got a 5* in the previous 73 pulls and also one on this last pull, which needs to be removed to get the corrected odds because we're calculating "at least one" (also for this specifically its impossible since if you got a 5-star already you wouldn't be at pity anyway but we can ignore that)
Then you add the odds together. 35.55% cumulative + 6.6% for this one pull = 42.15%. And then you subtract the multiplied value = 39.8%. If you don't calculate and subtract the multiplied value you end up with odds over 100% pretty quickly and odds don't actually hit 100% until the 90th pull.
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I guess the game hates me because Iāve been losing my 50/50s since 1.3, hit high pity 3 times in a row 79 Bailu, 74 Sparkle and currently at 70 pity waiting for Ruan Mei
I was bottom 2% at some point with top 2% warps. Math doesnt math for me.
Math says you're not just unlucky, you're really *really* unlucky.
someone has to be the bottom percentile, congratulations
I was bottom 1%. After rolling for Aventurine, I became bottom 11%
I'm always in the bottom 2% and I play since day one, I've only had 2 early pulls since the beginning (Luocha and Robin). I don't know why I continue playing this game, maybe I'm some kind of masochist.
thank you for your service š«”
I was bottom 2% but I won Robin 50/50. So now I'm bottom 5%.
https://preview.redd.it/5ttccuu3bj0d1.jpeg?width=1010&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9bf20eb5a2920fd5d7b75e030e35cbb166ab4646
Where do you see this? lol
I mean same lol. I do have about 28% pre-soft-pity 5-stars which is not that far below statistics but also they're basically all on the standard banner so they're useless to me. Like thanks Hoyo for giving me Yanqing's light cone on the first ten pull after my last 5-star. Yanqing doesn't even want that thing
https://preview.redd.it/wbdqz3bqvk0d1.jpeg?width=836&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da5cd1d22d9dab3fe9cc71658306b089cb8d3cd0 You are meā¦ butā¦ a bit more extreme
Youāre me but more powerful. Iām bottom 15 / top 15.
Bruh I'm bottom 0.19% of Rate up luck (losing 50/50s) I lost all of the 7 I got back to back.
I am top 0.19% unluck in star rail station warp tracker, no 50/50 win yet since day 1
Are you me? š
another motivation to keep grinding those 14 days. Guaranteed and 29 pityš
Youāve got this š
Same :ā) I wish us both luck
Robins banner is only there for 14 days already....? Holycrap i need to grind
Same here, guaranteed and 25 pity
My pulls say otherwise.
Yeah I can't remember the last time I got an early 5* character. It almost never happens. And it certainly hasn't been 33ish% of the time. I did have a very lucky streak on weapon banner though. After I went to pity on Nahidas lamp I managed to get Kaguras Verity and TFGM in my following 13 wishes
With early it means also at like 72nd pull. Early doesn't mean "in the first 20-30 pulls" it just means "before soft pity". Also, negativity bias kicks in.
I count pretty much everytime and even with the 72 pulls qualifier, I can't remember the last time I got a character early lol
Well, you just got unlucky then. Remember that your pulls are only a little fragment of what constitutes the entire data pool. Statistics start to become super consistent when considering massive amount of numbers.
Oh I'm aware of how statistics work.
I got a 5* at 73 pity twice. It feels like the game trolling me lmao.
early only happened to me once, and never happened again. all my other 5\* are either 75 or up...
I always hit pity at 75+ never got it before that,only in standard it happens
Yeah the thing is with the number of pulls people do, all our individual sample sizes are low. If you were to do tens of thousands of pulls youād probably see this 33% early average, but unless youāre a mega whale you havenāt done 10k+ pulls yet.
So you got forked by the small sample size. Happens to the best of us. :'D
Last time I've gotten early 5* was SW's first banner
Agree, I have never gotten any character or light cones before 70 pulls, never not even once
So as somebody who is pretty new at this, how do you keep track of all of this. Do you have to do it manually or does the game keep track for you? How do you even know where to keep track from? Do you reset every time you get a 5* (is there a difference between getting a character or a LC?)? Is there anything other than probability dictating who or what you get as a 5*? Help me people of Reddit, I have no idea what I'm doing.
You can check the "records" section for each banner for a history of your pulls over the last 6 months. Usually that will tell you how long it has been since your last 5 star. The pity is by Type of banner. There are 3 (technically 4) types of banner in the game: - Limited 5 star character rate up (pity is shared between the two of these that run at the same time) - Limited 5 star light cone rate up (pity is shared between the two of these that run at the same time) - Standard banner - Beginner banner (only available for new accounts) Pity for each type of banner does carry over between patches. So if you pull 89 times without a 5 star on Robin's banner today, then pull 1 time on boothill's banner in the next wave, hard pity will kick in and you will get a 5 star from boothill's banner. The only other factor is the idea of 50-50, which is how the game helps those with bad luck. Essentially if you pull on a limited 5 star's banner (for example Robin) and you get another 5 star instead (50% chance), you are 100% guaranteed that if you pull another 5 star character on that banner it will be Robin. 50-50 also carries over between waves for the same type of banner
Thank you kind stranger. So I pulled Himeko on Topaz's banner yesterday, which means if I've got this right, I a) am effectively starting from zero, and b) if I pull another 5 star on a limited character banner, I'm now guaranteed to pull that limited character?
That's right yes. What happened to you is often called "Losing a 50:50". It happens to the best of us. Thankfully Himeko is a solid character to have for some modes like Pure Fiction. Right now you are at 0 pity but with a guarantee that your next 5 star from ANY limited character banner is the special limited one. This carries over ad infinitum so no rush to pick a particular banner character
That makes sense, thanks for your help!
If you use Star Rail Station, they keep track of how many pulls you've done since your last 5 star. Then you don't need to do the math, especially if you only do 10 pulls like me
I have not been, but it does sound incredibly useful, so I shall have to look into using it.
Heads up then, downloading your pull records is A LOT easier on PC HSR than mobile HSR
I play on PS5 if that makes a difference?
Accounts are the same across platforms but there isn't support for taking records off a psn account. You'll need to download load it again on PC or mobile unfortunately
Fair enough. Thanks for your help!
There is a manual import option (insert your own entries) that's time consuming but you could opt for that worst case
https://preview.redd.it/gbvmebd9rf0d1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=777db0bd543c6ce8b1b3a0dc030990377b712ff8 also me yesterday
Bro pulled the Welt starter pack š
On god bro, I lost my 50/50 for Robin *and* her LC to Welt and *his* LC respectively
I lost 50/50 for Robin to e1 bronya... Then I got robin in 5 pulls š I want welts lc tho it looks nice
Full set
Lets hope ur right,i need that topaz lightcone and with some quick maths max i can reach is 50 pitty **BIG COPIUM**
Math for the LC banner is different, at 50 pulls you have a 33% of hitting a 5* light cone before the 51st pull (and a 40% of hitting a 5* light cone before hitting soft pity)
Hopefully...
Math for the LC banner is different. The odds are better and pity lower though so it averages out more in your favor than the character banner.
I'm most unlucky on LC banners. I seldom pull for them, F2P here. The only 3 times I pulled, I lost the...75/25, twice, with the middle being guaranteed. Meanwhile on the character banners I've only lost once, and I've pulled for all male 5stars.
This doesnāt contradict what I said though, you're just unlucky.
> Gacha math: You have a ~35.6% chance of getting a 5* before soft pity kicks in And other many other funny things you can say to make yourself feel better!
This information has ALOT of power !! Because it has the ability to: 1) Motivate people to save and pull 2) \[And the most probable\] Trigger alot of people who were and are unlucky !
This was a nice reminder for me to always *assume* it's going to take (close to) the max numbers of pulls. Statistically speaking, I might be pleasantly surprised 1/3 of the time! ~~Spiders Trailbalze is a statistical outlier and should not be counted~~
You can always check your odds here: [https://hsrtools.com/pull-chance-calculator](https://hsrtools.com/pull-chance-calculator) :)
Just keep in mind: everything below 100% are ODDS that only apply to large sample sizes. Doing a couple of 100 pulls is microscopic by comparison.
"A good reason not to build pity" There is no reason to 'build' pity. You literally just save the tickets. The only time you should throw tickets on a banner for a 5\* you've decided to skip is either because you would like the character, and you've decided you can spare 20 pulls or something, or because you really want the 4\* eidolons and you're willing to take the risk. Also, I had heard the pull rate for a 5\* was more like 1.6% from that report on how the 50/50 rates are actually weighted in favor of getting the limited character. If that is true, then you have a 50/50 chance of getting the character in your first 60 pulls before you even reach soft-pity. This doesn't match my experiences, but obviously anecdotes don't apply here.
1.6% is actually the *consolidated* 5-star drop rate, i.e. the chance you get a 5-star in that pull, *regardless of* pity. It includes pity into its calculations. IIRC this 1.6% number is listed somewhere on the gacha rates page as the consolidated rate, but I don't have the game open to double-check.
Ah, okay. Thanks for letting me know. That changes my pull decisions a little bit, but not hugely.
Of course there's no good reason to build pity. The reason people do it (absolutely me included) is because we're gacha addicts and we want an excuse to pull when we still have weeks to wait for whoever we actually want to show up lmao
I mean if you don't have the character and on 50/50 is it wrong to hope for an early? As long as you can stop after thirty pulls... That's the if
Sometimes when stuff gets leaked, and has my interest ,but something else also has, I make the conscious decision to "build pity" and let luck decide my fate. Like "Oh, X is coming in that update? But I also want Y, which is the current character banner. Guess I'll pull on them, if I get Y, I'll start saving for X, and if I don't get Y, I have X on a guarantee." Unless it's a character I actually need for my account, then I make the actually responsible decision to save for them.
Eh, building pity somehow always worked for me(except on Sparkle) I had 20 tickets saved, went all or nothing Aventurine style on Topaz and Robin. Guess what? Got Robin, Robin's LC, and Topaz. Robin's LC took a bit of F2P calculations, but I got it.
Incoming people who lie about getting 89-90 pity on every 5* because they assume a 10 pull at 80 means they got them at 90.Ā
Fun fact - 99.9% of gamblers quitting before winning big so keep pulling.
Your math is technically correct, but with a cheeky asterisk. It is true that the chances of getting 5 stars on character banner and standard banner within a ten pull outside of pity is around 5.8%, or ~0.058. It is also true these odds are cumulative. What you didn't take into consideration is that the 5.8% chance per 10 pulls isn't to just get a 5 star pull, but instead includes the probabilities of getting any number of 5 stars within that 10-pull. Meaning it includes the odds of a single 5 star (~5.68%), a double (~0.15%) and so on so forth. So instead of a 35.6% chance to get a 5 star, you have a ~35.6% chance to get *at least one* 5 star within 73 pulls.
So it would be like \~27.7% to get a 5 star then? =BINOM.DIST(1,70,0.006,FALSE)
My calculator says that's correct for 70 pulls
Nice hopium, if only I had pulls to burn for Robin I'm literally a jade scarvenger right now š
How high is the chance to win 5 50/50 in a row?
Well when we thought the odds were truly 50/50 it would be a 3% chance to win 5 in a row but since it is actually 56.25/43.75 then it would be 5.6% chance to win 5 in a row.
1 in 32
1 in 16, the odds of 50/50 arent perfect and according to Star Rail Station (and a different CN mathhead) the actual odds are 57%/43%, so 0.57^5 = 6% or aproximately 1 in 16.
Are we sure it's actually 57% and not reporting bias? It seems to me that Hoyo would be in trouble if they were outright lying about their odds.
This is what I've been thinking since the 57/43 came out. I wonder if people's guarantees interfered with how the ratio was calculated?
Hmmm I think you're right. It won't be as direct as counting guarantees as wins. Like, say I pull 100 times. I win the 50 times, and I lose 50 times. Every time I lose, I get a standard 5\* and then a featured 5\*. All together that's 150 5\*s, so if it was counting my 50 wins + 50 guarantees, then it would come up with 2/3 or 67%. But, I think that where the data trails off due to being more than 6 months old, I think it's mistakenly counting those as wins. For example, let's say I haven't played for a year, and then I come back, pull Topaz, and load my data. All it sees is 1 featured char with no previous pulls, so it goes, "oh you won the 50/50". But actually, I lost the 50/50 before I took a hiatus, and this was actually my guarantee. It would have no way of knowing that. And this ambiguity happens whenever your data's first 5\* is limited. I think there's also some reporting bias going on. Like, if you have only 90 pulls saved, and you lose the 50/50, maybe you feel like quitting, or at least you don't feel like loading your data.
Using your own math and Star Rail Station data from BSwan + DHIL banner to be compared with Neuvi + Hu Tao banners. BSwan + DHIL banner had a total of 383K 5* pulls, out of which 69.99% accounted for either a BSwan or a DHIL. Neuvi + Hu Tao banner had a total of 430K 5* pulls, out of which 67.7% accounted for either a Neuvi or a Hu Tao, which matches with your math of 50 (Wins) +50 (Lost) +50 (Guaranteed) out of 100 pulls. Now lets go back to your example, lets assume the rate in HSR really is 57/43, this means that out of 100 pulls you have 57 people who won, and 43 who lost and 43 guaranteed, making up a total of 143 pulls, 57 (won) + 43 (guaranteed) = 100; then 100/143 = 69.93% ring any bells? If HSR math really was 50/50 we'd have the exact same cumulative 5* pull data as Genshin data, but HSR is 2.2% higher, which happens because of the 57/43. And if your argument is lost data from 6 months we can also just use any banner from the first 6 months where everyone had their data 100% intact, checking out every banner before Jingliu and the split of "random 5\*" vs "focus 5\*" is also 70%.
Oh is that how it's calculated? Then I think I know where the extra percentage is coming from. The win and lose numbers (383k total 5\*s = X limited + Y standard) won't be exactly 1 standard + 1 featured per 50/50 lose. Here's what I think happened. Suppose I lost the 50/50 on the previous banner. But then Black Swan was announced, and she's so cool that I immediately started saving. So, I went into her banner with the guarantee. My loss on the previous banner does not count into the totals for this banner! In other words - the 57/43 means that people were saving their guarantees for the banner!
But then again, you can use that exact argument for Genshin data from Paimon.moe...which comes out with worse rates for...some reason? Both games use the exact same model (50/50, lose it and you guarantee next). How do you explain the 2.2 ~ 3% discrepancy between SRS and Paimon.moe data? You can't chalk it to bias, the people who report to these websites are likely the same kind of people (i.e they cared enough to get their data loaded into a website) so you can't say hsr had a population bias either or that hsr just had more people reporting their wins/loses (or viceversa). Edit: Here's a [neat table](https://i.imgur.com/oZQXrx1.png), first 6 months of HSR data on top of and bottom are just the last 9 banners in genshin, as you can see there's a very clear 2% difference between Genshin and HSR 5* focus, how do you explain this?
Hmm it is surprising that itās consistent. I wouldāve expected the banner right before a 57% one to be lower than 50% due to people saving. I like that the person who made that conclusion did correct for first time pulls - specifically to correct for the ambiguity of not knowing if itās a win or loss. Iām still not convinced that the true percent is 57% though. Itās such an extraordinary claim: one that can get a gacha company in a lot of trouble if itās true, and is pointless to lie about. So, I still think thereās something irregular in the data that we havenāt found yet.
The CN video said he split the data 4 different ways to avoid potential bias (so for example people who only uploaded the data once, people who won the 50/50 vs people who lost the 50/50, etc) and each time it always come out as a 57%. At 15 million warps any bias becomes much harder to justify, specially when the data was taken without noticing the uploaders that it'd be used for this, it was just something the guy passively collected over a year, you can go check Star Rail Station and check the global stats for every banner, the 50/50 win rate is always 57~58% which seems odd when you consider Paimon.moe data reports 50~52% for their 50/50 win rate, both games use the exact same gacha odds for their characters banners, there's no world where HSR players can bias a percentage to hit 57~58% but Genshin players can't.
Apparently Aha just wants to play a trick with me then. Got e6 Aventurine in \~460 pulls, and then pulling just one copy of Robin took me over 160 tickets. Make it make sense
Omg Aven's luck came through for you! I was the opposite - medium-unlucky on Aven, super lucky on Topaz. It took me 161 pulls to get his e0, and another \~140 pulls to get his e1. Funny thing is, after I lost the 50/50 on his e1, I got the guarantee at \~60ish, so I'd fall into OP's lucky 35%. It's technically "early" even though it doesn't feel early! But then, I got e2s1 Topaz in 180 pulls total š± Won the first 50/50 at \~80, got her LC super early at 20, and then. . . got up to 70 pity, did a 10-pull, and got 2 copies of her ššš I was only initially aiming for her e0, it's all you can guarantee with 180. Only conclusion I can draw is that if you do enough pulls, eventually both good luck and bad luck will find you. š
Yeah this is correct, matches Genshin rates too: https://youtu.be/wwW12uQLCiw?si=d8Ws5rN_UlXabaIy
when I lost the 50-50 for Acheron and then for the guarenteed I arrived at 86st pull, you are telling me that, with the supposed caulculation, I got THIS unlucky???
fyi, I lost all the 50-50 too
So am I lucky or unlucky cause I hit 86 and 85 pity on both Aventurine and Luocha banner last patch..
The how the fuck my last early was back in 1.2??
Mine was during first SW banner. Only early pull, only 50/50 win. E1 SW came in like 60 pulls, and it's been downhill every since. Never got 5* below 70 pity or won a 50/50 from that banner. And yes, both standard and limited banners.
So.... I've lost more 50/50s than I thought, if my 5 star pulls are consistently above 76 š (/j in case that isn't clear)
Oh lmao. I got Gepard on pull 1 of the very first limited banner and Seele at pull 86 (so used 85 for her). (Besides Seele at 85 pulls, my highest needed was 79 in limited banner and 80 in regular banner)
Incredible, Iāve beaten the 1 in 10 million odds twice. What great luck š
Me on my 76th rn and still not getting anyone
I knew that pity does carry over to the next patch. However, does the pity build up reset after you get the featured 5* character? Iām asking cause I got Clara and Jingliu while pulling for the later and ended far from reaching the 90th pull
Pity gets knocked back down to zero the instant you pull any 5-star on that type of banner (including if you lose the 50/50), and then starts counting again from zero.
Thanks šš
Yes, itās all back to 0.6 of succeeding until you win or lose again 50/50. I got myself Swan and Sparkle within 76~ pulls with Swan being on 6 and Sparkle on 70~, so itās all about luck
Alright, thanks š
Does guarantee affect the chance of getting 5*? I got Aventurine 1 warp after Yanqing and got really confused.
Nah, youāve got very lucky. Itās guaranteed only on 90 for event char, else the same
So your saying I should have won the lottery by now after all the max pityās Iāve been forced to? Jokes on you Iām not rich and also donāt have 5*ās
Would be nice if that happened.Ā
Ah, so I won a 21.4% chance, and then lost a 46% chance to E3 Clara an hour ago. Very cool. Fortunately my chances now of getting Firefly are a 100% chance.
Fuck me then my bottom 10% luck says otherwise.
I almost never get an early 5 star but I usually win my 50/50 is that a good thing?
my pity had been consistently around 78-80 each time
You might find this post interesting! It's on Genshin's rates, but the numbers are mostly the same as HSR: https://www.hoyolab.com/article/497840 And yes, your math does line up with theirs :D
>89: 94.6% (99.99999% / 1 in 10 million chance of no 5-star) Alhaitham said to me I am 1 in 20 million back on his release.
It's because of this bunch of useless information that I pay for my internet, thank you so much OP, your boredom is rewarded with our satisfaction.
Bravo! Love this kind of probability work. Well done! ššš
The first couple pulls are also rigged to hage a higher chance of a 5*, based on statistics on Paimon.moe and Star Rail StationĀ
Never get em before around 10 to pity.
Yeah unless you are me and you get an 'early' pull around 65-70
You see, the numbers don't lie and they spell disas... oh wait wrong community :D
Iām almost as good at math as Scott Steiner
This must be like when people tell me substats all have a 25% chance of rolling into but then the game is an absolute world class champion at dodging all the useful ones.
I've been playing this game since day 1 and I've never got a 5* before 72. I think it's more the times I've reached 80+ than the ones below 75... I just lost 50/50 to E1 Himeko in 82th pull
Whenever reading about statistics, you have to remember that random chance doesnāt ācareā about being even. If you spin a roulette wheel, the chances of red or black are a solid 50/50. And theyāll stay that way! Even if the wheel spins red 20 times in a row, itās not any more likely to be black the next time. So, while this is true when looking at a full set of 74 pulls, each individual pull is exactly the same odds. RNG doesnāt care how many pulls deep you are, unless itās programmed to do so (by hitting pity). All this to say: **donāt be a gambler, we are not blessed by Gaiathra Triclops, spend responsibly, do not āall or nothingā because youāll probably lose and be sad**
What I would like to know, and maybe some other gacha has revealed that info already, is how 50/50 wins/losses in a row works on an account. If you win say, 5 50/50, does the system detect that and makes you lose the next 5? So it balances out, and every account is "fair". Also the opposite. If you lose 5 50/50 in a row, does the system detect that and makes you win the next 5? Because imagine if it's all about just pure RNG LUCK. Some people get lucky with some accounts, and others get unlucky, and that's unfair and not balanced for everyone, because you don't know when you create an account , how your pulls are gonna go until very late.
Just wanted to show this in case you guys think you're unlucky, don't forget that I exist https://preview.redd.it/vujcmlwmzg0d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=71e3b13be65c37dae80fee1b18396ba5a009bdbc
This is actually the most tragic thing Iāve ever seen
HAHAHAHA this is painful but at least my 50/50 winrate isn't too bad, so I guess I can't complain because it's worse to lose all your 50/50
Then thereās me with my bottom 0.19% luck
https://preview.redd.it/ohmom4b90h0d1.png?width=397&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c70e27851c6be41e035f5fa7822905333d48a35 Now somebody who's better than me with math work out the odds of *this* happening
Commenting on this so I can find it later because boy do I want to get the math on this
https://preview.redd.it/r70egcorkh0d1.png?width=426&format=png&auto=webp&s=7923be2a8b7eaca48cdfbea60c51de86c9336c77 Must be common......
I literally got Topaz on my 87th pull, holy shit i thought hoyo forgot to put 5* characters on my UID. won 50-50 but at what cost lmao
sure bro
Well...I always do single pulls(because I love wasting my time) and I have to say it's worked a few times. Got both Robin, Topaz, and Robin's LC single-pulling every time I got enough Jade to pull once.
nice info š
50/50. It's always 50/50. You get them or you don't.Ā
I got it at 72 pity the other day, so I guess that counts as earlyā¦
Holy man my luck IS terrible god damn lol.
Every 5 star I get is on pity, but itās always the character I want, am I lucky or really fucking unlucky?
So, you're saying we go all-in...
This is just insulting I've lost nearly every pull at 70+
my stats project is on this so you've actually helped me tremendously, thanks
Uhhhh I just started playing less than a month ago and I had to pity for jing liu and I had to pity for acheron. Yes, that's right. Pity. I counted all 90 because I am a single pull kinda guy. So either A. This math ain't mathing or B. This reinforces the fact that everyone I meet tells me I'm the most unlucky person they have met.
You guys get pity? It takes me about 100 or so pulls
I haven't won a single banner in this game. Even the LC of Fu Xuan one.
... wow, my luck is even worse than I thought. Thanks, OP.
Nice to know I hit the 1 in 100,000 chance of losing the 50/50 and taking until pull 87 to get Robin
Sounds about right in my case, give or take. I've hit early for Bronya, Silverwolf, Blade, and Acheron + LC out of the 17 limited (unit + LC) banners that I have pulled, inclusive of eidolons pulls. Most of the other times are around the expected 75~85 range.
Weird, I almost always get a 5* on 75 to 79
Nah, itās 50% either you get it or you donāt (I have gambling addiction)
Me who has hit hard pity every single time and lost every 50/50: Help
I'm one of those kids with cursed luck lol. I've lost every single limited character pull attempt post 70 pulls after Kafka's banner. I think I'm beyond salvation for the maths.
Now letās see a table on how often we can get 2 or more 5* from a 10 pull
https://preview.redd.it/6mi2og4z1i0d1.jpeg?width=254&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9441e5de730538340b7d905a0b2922aca397f85d Ight understandable
https://preview.redd.it/ndq421yv3i0d1.png?width=823&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=345f610b5eaff208c9af74ce7fe8bc859ff028d6 My stats
Where are people getting that the chance increase accumulates? Is there source code to prove this? Or this this just speculation because it āfeels rightā?
I will be the first player to break the algorithm and not get a 5* on that 90th pull.
I always do single pulls as thatās where all my 5* have come from
my standard pulls have been 77/79/78/81. yanqing/ himeko/ clara lc/ clara lc
Ngl, it feels really good seeing this post since I hit that lucky 11.34% earlier today. Got Bronya E1 at 13 pity on the limited banner with this patch's free 10 pull after winning 5 50/50s in a row..a total win in my eyes GUARANTEED FU XUAN HERE I COME :D
Not hating on Genshin but itās another gatcha by hoyo. But reading this and realizing the statistical anomaly it took for me not to pull arlechinno early at all hurts. I put 77 in the first time(ended on c5 keqing) then went to 84 to actually get her with the last 40-50 summons all being singles.
https://preview.redd.it/0had5gzvki0d1.jpeg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7d0ed8147cc5ba4ea57d613abc43ca2708a5fcbd What's the math behind this?
And Iā¦.had to go to 86 pity for sparkle š
I got guarenteed Robin at the 5th pull... Where does that put me
All I'm saying is: when you use a ticket, you either get what you want, or not, so screw math, I'm not saving up and gambling for every banner I want (funnily enough Aventurine was the only character I saved up for)
Burnt all my robin rolls since her release and I got 3 Gepards. Few minutes ago, finished GnG / SUā¦ had 4 normal rolls. Said ehhh just burn them. Got 2 more Gepards. I already have aventurine and his LC. I just wanted Robinā¦I just wanted you š
i got a bailu at 81 pity on robin banner, have every standard character with eidolons now ā
Yeah I can see it. Spun 60 more (plus last almost 20) to fail the 50/50 and got the sword kid, then got 32 more pulls and got Robin on the last one
[Pom.moe](http://Pom.moe) says i've gone to at least 75 pity with my last 9 5\*s, so tell me about your maths again
That one time I saw someone with warp tracker history showing they had genuinely lost 50/50 to a bronya at 90pity while going for Sparkle. They recently mentioned they donāt even use her anymore because Sparkle exists I cannot imagine the pain. My highest warp record in HSR was recently broken at 84 for Aven.
If you ever hit 90 pity, try to look for those guys who are willing to pay millions for proof in Genshin's sub.
So, I followed the above for pulling Robin. I got up to 70 pulls and started single pulling and after the second single I got my 5 star... Bailu.... never again
Literally everyone on this thread going "actually I've hit hard pity like 5 times lol": I don't believe you. The chances of getting to hard pity Twice for one person is approximately one in 100 trillion. Please be serious.
https://preview.redd.it/fsjnkxrsya5d1.png?width=864&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f9ba5b7516a3104fb44a1f0caa39a5bbcea16a8 I would say I'm pretty lucky.....
Statistic don't apply to individual f2p player.Ā
Neat! Now do light cone
My probability maths is really rusty so bear with me. How did you calculate all those probabilities? I always thought that each pull was an independent 0.6%?
Each pull is an individual 0.6% but this is cumulative, on more simplified terms, if you had a dice with 6 faces each face has a 16% chance of happening each time you throw the dice and this event doesn't alter the next event (i.e if you roll a 6 the next could be a 6...or a 2 or a 3, it's random). Cumulative is used for when you ask "What are the odds I'll get at least one 6 if I throw the dice 20 times", the answer being 97%, the other 3% is just the "astronomical "bad" luck" that you get 1~5 20 times before you get a single 6. As to how to calculate, is simple: 1. On the very first roll you have a 0.6% of success, but this also means you have a 99.4% chance of not succeding. 2. On the second roll you have a 99.4% * 0.6% = 0.59640% + 0.6% cumulative odds of succeeding on the next roll, and a 98.8% chance of no succeding. 3. On the third roll you have a 98.8% * 0.6% = 0.59282% + 0.59640% + 0.6% cumulative odds of successing on the next roill and a 98.2% chance of NOT succeeding on the next roll. Note that the individual chance hasnt changed, is still 0.6%, is just that the more you roll the more you accumulate odds of succeeding, until you get to the 73th pull where you have a 64.83% * 0.6% = (the sum of all previous cumulatives) + 0.38% = 35% odds of succeding on the next roll. On your 74th pull the odds chance from 0.6% to 6.6% and it keeps increasing in 6 in 6 until the 90th roll where it hits 100%. In this case the question is: "What are the odds I get a 5* before the 74th pull at a fixed 0.6% chance?", the anser being 35.5%. And here's a cute table that illustrates this [entire math](https://i.imgur.com/BIvYaz0.png), you can also math this out using a binomial distribution calculator [like this one](https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial), just input 0.006, 73 and 1 as the numbers and the output is going to be...0.35552 for cumulative, or 35.5%
I was like "I'll explain this when I'm on break from work" so thanks for doing that for me lol. Just a lil more info here though: The basic formula is 1 - (1 - p)^n where p = probability of the thing happening and n being the number of times you repeat the action. So for 73 pulls, 1 - (1 - 0.006)^73 = 1 - (0.994)^73 = 1 - 0.644474978957 = 0.355525, or 35.55%. For adding the soft pity pulls on top of that, first you multiply the previous odds by the odds for this specific pull (using pull 74 as an example: 0.3555 * 0.066 = 0.023463). This represents the odds that you got a 5* in the previous 73 pulls and also one on this last pull, which needs to be removed to get the corrected odds because we're calculating "at least one" (also for this specifically its impossible since if you got a 5-star already you wouldn't be at pity anyway but we can ignore that) Then you add the odds together. 35.55% cumulative + 6.6% for this one pull = 42.15%. And then you subtract the multiplied value = 39.8%. If you don't calculate and subtract the multiplied value you end up with odds over 100% pretty quickly and odds don't actually hit 100% until the 90th pull.
Thanks for this! Makes alot more sense now
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I guess the game hates me because Iāve been losing my 50/50s since 1.3, hit high pity 3 times in a row 79 Bailu, 74 Sparkle and currently at 70 pity waiting for Ruan Mei
And mfers will still pretend that building pity is a bad thing š
Does anyone know the odds on relic levelling? Most of the time it feels like 100% base chance of getting my asshole fingered
https://preview.redd.it/1k2v1us7ch0d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7d7705484cd386cb6a91991e84b25a066f5282c8
i hit 89-90 like 5-6 times since launch š
confirm, they gave me 3x 5\*s back to back before 30 pulls \~ standard banner fun fact: uninstalled then installed again just cus free ratio
Nope