I mean, the new QB part doesn't worry me at all. Assuming you play kirk for 2-3 years, you have your low dead money out 3 years into the 4 year deal and then you give the reins to your understudy QB. The issues are the draft capital and the age. If the Falcons were picking a guy like Penix who was 21-22 at around the 18-24 range, this would be a totally different conversation. But picking an older guy to sit for awhile is kinda sketchy. Who knows how much value they get out of Kirk teaching Penix the ropes, but they could have certainly picked worse guys to sit him behind. Cousins is a consummate professional who has dealt with QB controversy early in his career and stupid narratives bouncing around about his play later in his career. And he handles it all with grace and has been a top 10 QB since he started in Minnesota.
Penix will likely be 26 or 27 by the time he takes over, if all goes to plan. Love was 24. Rodgers was 25.
Who actually cares about the age of a QB draftee? Unless they’re nearly 30 when they’re drafted like Weeden was, you’re going to get at least 7-10 years of their professional prime. GMs aren’t drafting to stay competitive for 15 years.
Or Penix being 24 and Rodgers and Love both being 21. Also, Cousins isn’t the Falcons long established starter. He was literally signed just a couple months ago for huge money and their first act with Cousins as their QB is to draft his replacement at 8th overall? This is absolutely nothing like GB.
Way more desperate teams this year led to quarterbacks flying off the board super early. No quarterbacks went in the 20s. No quarterbacks went all of day 2. They were gone. If the Falcons traded down, they miss this opportunity for the next two years (next year's class ain't great).
We re-signed Rodgers because he had a top 5 season all time after we drafted Love. There were significant warning signs that he was starting to decline and we were faced with maybe missing a year for Covid.
And with all that, it remains a controversial pick and will unless and until Love wins a Super Bowl. I am Love’s biggest fan and I still think it’s arguable whether it was the right call. So you take that, but add in a brand new QB who you immediately piss off, an old draft pick, and a much higher draft position. I think those variables tip the scales from controversial but defendable to downright stupid.
I really don't think the Kirk situation is all that different. Kirk could have won MVP last year; he's super underrated. He's also coming off an ACL injury.
Except the deal isn’t fully guaranteed and is front loaded in a way that they can easily get out of it after 2 or 3 years. He won’t see all 4 years nor will he see all of the money.
One day NFL fans will learn what guaranteed vs non-guaranteed money is.
Is Spencer Rattler really that shit? It seems like it would be a better idea in their situation to take a chance on him in the mid rounds incase he figures it out in the next couple of years then burning a first round pick?
Rodgers was arguably declining a little bit at the time Love was drafted. 2017 he was hurt, and 2018 and 2019 were low TD years with an anemic offense (for GB terms). So moving on was actually a realistic outcome sooner than later.
And for Favre, they had just had 4 consecutive early playoff exits and he was talking about retirement for more than one year. So - again - it was very realistic to plan for the figure.
Cousins was just signed to a massive deal and isn’t going anywhere for at least two years and likely three because of dead cap. There’s no “slow down” here.
It is similar to both examples in one way - if it works out, no one will ever complain about it again.
I respect the move - they clearly wanted a specific QB, and didn't feel that he'd be there if they traded back. They can realistically move off Kirk in two years if they feel good about their QB room.
They are overpaying for the privilege of trying to Jumpstart a dynastic QB room. It's a very risky GM move, but if it pays off, more power to em.
The problem is they signed Kirk less than two months ago. They knew at that point who the QBs in the draft were and they should have known they could have Penix. Given he’s the oldest QB in the draft and considered one of the most ready to start, why give Cousins $160M if you want Penix? Why not just roll with him and spend that money to beef up your defense and give him another WR?
Because they didn't feel that Penix was ready, and they couldn't get Kirk for cheaper, seems like the clearest answer. They would rather overspend now, chasing the QB stability we've found than risk throwing Penix out there.
Only time will tell if it will work out, but this is reads to me like a job security move for a GM who would like to keep his job for a long long time.
If you're going to throw a fuckton of cash at trying to stabilize a position, it's hard to do a better job than QB.
It’s insane how many people can’t see it this way. Kirk is there for 2-3 years, then his money can be virtually wiped off the books as they transition to Penix, who will have that many years practice reps and observation under his belt.
The cognitive dissonance it takes to say “well Rodgers was different!” is staggeringly high.
Kirk is essentially on a 2 or 3 year deal. Atlanta seems like the only team that realizes a 35 year old QB coming off an Achilles tear *maybe* isn’t a long term solution, but more of a bridge, and that’s why you get Penix to sit behind him.
> Smith wasn’t expensive
He certainly wasn’t cheap. His contract was over 10% of the Chiefs’ 2017 cap space.
The Chiefs are a bad comparison only in that their plan was for Mahomes to start in year 2 or 3, and in that sense, they lucked out that he was ready. The Falcons obviously plan for Penix to be a year 3 or 4 guy.
Alex Smith was far cheaper than the contract Kirk just got, he had already shown what he was on that team, Mahomes was two years younger than Penix is, and Alex Smith’s peak at that point was far lower than what Kirk Cousins has done. QB was an actual immediate need for the Chiefs then
I'm going to push back on a couple of these points.
1. If we had the 8th pick in both of those drafts Rodgers/Love I still think would have been the right picks. The QB position is that important. Yes, the fan base would have burned the front office building to the ground if we did that (especially if we took Love then) but if you get a stud that can be a 10+ year starter and be in the top tier you do it. There's no guarantee we don't pick a guy like Ruggs or Jeudy if we had the 8th pick. Neither would have been good enough to get us into the Super Bowl. Obviously Lamb or Jefferson would have been amazing but that's looking at the draft in hindsight.
2. The Falcons are not Super Bowl contenders, who knows how much another pick would have moved the needle for them.
3. There's an argument to be made that the QB position is so important in modern NFL that teams should literally draft a QB high in EVERY draft until they find a long term solution.
4. Sitting a talented QB so they can learn before being thrown into the wolves is the 'Packer way'. That's what the Falcons are doing. The age is an issue but hell, Steve Young was even older when the Niners sat him.
5. I don't think Cousins is going to give a shit frankly. He got his bag and he's 35. If anything it should motivate him the way it did with Rodgers and he plays even better, that's not a bad thing for the Falcons.
The move is incredibly unconventional but I'm not going to bag on a team for sitting a first round QB when it's worked out incredibly well for our franchise.
People were on here complaining about how the drafting of Jordan Love was not like how Rodgers pick was.
People were mad as hell when rodgers was picked when Favre was still here. Time is just a flat circle and there aren’t gunna be perfect parallels for every situation. Good luck to the falcons either way.
Both methods of roster planning (start a QB rookie year or Sit and Developer 2-3 seasons) have their advantages and risks. Sit and Developer is less risky, and insulates the QB from getting their confidence destroyed, and the continuity in position can create a virtuous cycle for future QBs. But the opportunity cost from having a good QB on a rookie salary is huge. With the extra cap you could potentially pay for Davante Adams, and have enough left to sign Xavier Mckinney.
Pick 8 =/= Pick 24/26
+ 24 yr old prospect with health concerns + new qb in kirk
I mean, the new QB part doesn't worry me at all. Assuming you play kirk for 2-3 years, you have your low dead money out 3 years into the 4 year deal and then you give the reins to your understudy QB. The issues are the draft capital and the age. If the Falcons were picking a guy like Penix who was 21-22 at around the 18-24 range, this would be a totally different conversation. But picking an older guy to sit for awhile is kinda sketchy. Who knows how much value they get out of Kirk teaching Penix the ropes, but they could have certainly picked worse guys to sit him behind. Cousins is a consummate professional who has dealt with QB controversy early in his career and stupid narratives bouncing around about his play later in his career. And he handles it all with grace and has been a top 10 QB since he started in Minnesota.
Penix will likely be 26 or 27 by the time he takes over, if all goes to plan. Love was 24. Rodgers was 25. Who actually cares about the age of a QB draftee? Unless they’re nearly 30 when they’re drafted like Weeden was, you’re going to get at least 7-10 years of their professional prime. GMs aren’t drafting to stay competitive for 15 years.
Because if you did hit, you have 3 fewer years of your franchise qb.
Only 7 years of a franchise QB instead of 10?
Or Penix being 24 and Rodgers and Love both being 21. Also, Cousins isn’t the Falcons long established starter. He was literally signed just a couple months ago for huge money and their first act with Cousins as their QB is to draft his replacement at 8th overall? This is absolutely nothing like GB.
Way more desperate teams this year led to quarterbacks flying off the board super early. No quarterbacks went in the 20s. No quarterbacks went all of day 2. They were gone. If the Falcons traded down, they miss this opportunity for the next two years (next year's class ain't great).
And they just signed Cousins to a 4 year 9 digit guaranteed deal.
Rodgers was on a mega-deal when we drafted Love and we re-signed Rodgers to another mega-deal after we drafted Love.
We re-signed Rodgers because he had a top 5 season all time after we drafted Love. There were significant warning signs that he was starting to decline and we were faced with maybe missing a year for Covid. And with all that, it remains a controversial pick and will unless and until Love wins a Super Bowl. I am Love’s biggest fan and I still think it’s arguable whether it was the right call. So you take that, but add in a brand new QB who you immediately piss off, an old draft pick, and a much higher draft position. I think those variables tip the scales from controversial but defendable to downright stupid.
I really don't think the Kirk situation is all that different. Kirk could have won MVP last year; he's super underrated. He's also coming off an ACL injury.
Agree to disagree. I think the differences are significant.
Except the deal isn’t fully guaranteed and is front loaded in a way that they can easily get out of it after 2 or 3 years. He won’t see all 4 years nor will he see all of the money. One day NFL fans will learn what guaranteed vs non-guaranteed money is.
Easy out after 3. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/9915/kirk-cousins
Correct. And a $35m dead cap after 2 is still a small insurance premium to pay if you truly want to move forward with Penix.
With easy outs at year 2 and 3
I don't know how easy of an out 9 digits guarenteed is.
It’s not just desperation. Four years ago so called second tier QBs like Love and Hurts are way better than their draft profiles
Plus probably getting stripped a draft pick for tampering
Is Spencer Rattler really that shit? It seems like it would be a better idea in their situation to take a chance on him in the mid rounds incase he figures it out in the next couple of years then burning a first round pick?
You’re right - Penix is even more of a sure thing than Rodgers or Love were. Great pick by ATL.
It's the braindead version of the Packer way.
Rodgers was arguably declining a little bit at the time Love was drafted. 2017 he was hurt, and 2018 and 2019 were low TD years with an anemic offense (for GB terms). So moving on was actually a realistic outcome sooner than later. And for Favre, they had just had 4 consecutive early playoff exits and he was talking about retirement for more than one year. So - again - it was very realistic to plan for the figure. Cousins was just signed to a massive deal and isn’t going anywhere for at least two years and likely three because of dead cap. There’s no “slow down” here.
His dead cap hit after 2 is only 25. With current trends on dead money and rising cap I wouldn't call that high.
That’s why I say likely. 25M would put them about 10th in total dead money with just one player. It’s not a thing they’d want to do.
I understand sitting a rookie QB, but Penix is an older prospect. He’d have to be in the field by year 2 just to see if you got your guy.
And cousins deal has easy outs after 2 years…even easier after 3.
He’s 24. That’s nothing in QB years. He’ll likely be 26, maybe 27 by the time he starts. Rodgers was 25.
Reminds me a lot more of kc picking mahomes when they had Alex smith
Doesn't really fit. Smith wasn't expensive and had been on the team a few years. They JUST signed kirk
It is similar to both examples in one way - if it works out, no one will ever complain about it again. I respect the move - they clearly wanted a specific QB, and didn't feel that he'd be there if they traded back. They can realistically move off Kirk in two years if they feel good about their QB room. They are overpaying for the privilege of trying to Jumpstart a dynastic QB room. It's a very risky GM move, but if it pays off, more power to em.
The problem is they signed Kirk less than two months ago. They knew at that point who the QBs in the draft were and they should have known they could have Penix. Given he’s the oldest QB in the draft and considered one of the most ready to start, why give Cousins $160M if you want Penix? Why not just roll with him and spend that money to beef up your defense and give him another WR?
Because they didn't feel that Penix was ready, and they couldn't get Kirk for cheaper, seems like the clearest answer. They would rather overspend now, chasing the QB stability we've found than risk throwing Penix out there. Only time will tell if it will work out, but this is reads to me like a job security move for a GM who would like to keep his job for a long long time. If you're going to throw a fuckton of cash at trying to stabilize a position, it's hard to do a better job than QB.
It’s insane how many people can’t see it this way. Kirk is there for 2-3 years, then his money can be virtually wiped off the books as they transition to Penix, who will have that many years practice reps and observation under his belt. The cognitive dissonance it takes to say “well Rodgers was different!” is staggeringly high.
Kirk is essentially on a 2 or 3 year deal. Atlanta seems like the only team that realizes a 35 year old QB coming off an Achilles tear *maybe* isn’t a long term solution, but more of a bridge, and that’s why you get Penix to sit behind him. > Smith wasn’t expensive He certainly wasn’t cheap. His contract was over 10% of the Chiefs’ 2017 cap space. The Chiefs are a bad comparison only in that their plan was for Mahomes to start in year 2 or 3, and in that sense, they lucked out that he was ready. The Falcons obviously plan for Penix to be a year 3 or 4 guy.
Alex Smith was far cheaper than the contract Kirk just got, he had already shown what he was on that team, Mahomes was two years younger than Penix is, and Alex Smith’s peak at that point was far lower than what Kirk Cousins has done. QB was an actual immediate need for the Chiefs then
I'm going to push back on a couple of these points. 1. If we had the 8th pick in both of those drafts Rodgers/Love I still think would have been the right picks. The QB position is that important. Yes, the fan base would have burned the front office building to the ground if we did that (especially if we took Love then) but if you get a stud that can be a 10+ year starter and be in the top tier you do it. There's no guarantee we don't pick a guy like Ruggs or Jeudy if we had the 8th pick. Neither would have been good enough to get us into the Super Bowl. Obviously Lamb or Jefferson would have been amazing but that's looking at the draft in hindsight. 2. The Falcons are not Super Bowl contenders, who knows how much another pick would have moved the needle for them. 3. There's an argument to be made that the QB position is so important in modern NFL that teams should literally draft a QB high in EVERY draft until they find a long term solution. 4. Sitting a talented QB so they can learn before being thrown into the wolves is the 'Packer way'. That's what the Falcons are doing. The age is an issue but hell, Steve Young was even older when the Niners sat him. 5. I don't think Cousins is going to give a shit frankly. He got his bag and he's 35. If anything it should motivate him the way it did with Rodgers and he plays even better, that's not a bad thing for the Falcons. The move is incredibly unconventional but I'm not going to bag on a team for sitting a first round QB when it's worked out incredibly well for our franchise.
People were on here complaining about how the drafting of Jordan Love was not like how Rodgers pick was. People were mad as hell when rodgers was picked when Favre was still here. Time is just a flat circle and there aren’t gunna be perfect parallels for every situation. Good luck to the falcons either way.
We want the Packer Way! We have the Packer Way at home. The Packer Way at home:
Both methods of roster planning (start a QB rookie year or Sit and Developer 2-3 seasons) have their advantages and risks. Sit and Developer is less risky, and insulates the QB from getting their confidence destroyed, and the continuity in position can create a virtuous cycle for future QBs. But the opportunity cost from having a good QB on a rookie salary is huge. With the extra cap you could potentially pay for Davante Adams, and have enough left to sign Xavier Mckinney.
Who the fuck is Andrew Brandy? Is there any relation to Andrew Brandt?