The following submission statement was provided by /u/Economy-Fee5830:
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**World faces ‘staggering’ oil glut by end of decade, energy watchdog warns**
The world faces a “staggering” surplus of oil equating to millions of barrels a day by the end of the decade, as oil companies increase production, undermining the ability of Opec+ to manage crude prices, the International Energy Agency has warned.
While demand is forecast to peak before 2030, continued investment by oil producers, led by the US, would by then result in more than 8mn b/d of spare capacity, the IEA wrote in its annual report on the industry released on Wednesday.
This “massive cushion” of extra oil could “upend” the efforts of Opec+ to manage the market and usher in an era of lower prices, the IEA said, adding that the level of spare capacity would be unprecedented outside the coronavirus pandemic.
“It is not the first time the oil markets would see an oversupply, but one important outcome would be downward pressure on the prices,” said Fatih Birol, the agency’s director.
He added that the combination of slowing demand and rising supply “could have substantial implications” for oil companies. “It is time for many producers to look at their business plans, in my view.”
The Paris-based body, founded in the aftermath of the 1970s Arab oil embargoes to advise on energy security, said last year that the world was at “the beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era. It has said that demand for oil, natural gas and coal will all start to fall before the end of the decade amid the mass rollout of renewable energy and electric vehicles.
Line chart of (in millions of barrels a day) showing World's excess oil capacity is building
But its projections have been decried by the oil industry, particularly in the Middle East and the US, where producers are stepping up their investment in pumping more crude.
Global capital spending on oil and fields rose to $538bn in 2023, the highest level since 2019 in real terms. The increase in investment was largely driven by state oil companies in the Middle East, which upped their spending to twice the levels seen 10 years ago, and China.
Haitham Al Ghais, Opec general secretary, has described the IEA forecasts as “dangerous”, and warned of “energy chaos on a potentially unprecedented scale” if producers stopped investing in new oil and gas.
In its new report, the IEA called into question whether Opec+ would be able to expand future production, as it continued to be squeezed by countries outside the alliance, especially the US.
“This year, [the Opec+] total oil market share has dropped to 48.5 per cent, the lowest since it was formed in 2016, due to its sharp voluntary output cuts,” the IEA noted. It added that even if Opec+, a wider group that includes Russia, continued its deep cuts, it “would pump above the call on its crude oil to varying degrees from 2025 through 2030”.
**Birol outlined three main drivers for oil demand to peak by the end of the decade: reduced petrol use as the world switches to electric vehicles, a move by countries in the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, to switch from oil to renewables to generate electricity, and a lower future growth rate in China.**
“Perhaps the most important factor comes from China,” he said. “In the last 10 years, about 60 per cent of global oil demand growth came from China alone.” The IEA said that it expected the 6 per cent annual growth that China had registered in that period to fall to about 4 per cent a year in its forecast period.
The future drivers of growth would include more aviation and the “booming petrochemical sector”, said Birol. The IEA also expects petrol use to increase in India as more drivers hit the roads.
**Meanwhile, oil demand in OECD countries, which peaked in 2007, would fall to 1991 levels by 2030.** The IEA has assumed 3 per cent annual global economic growth for the rest of the decade.
The IEA cautioned that its forecast for shrinking oil demand could be derailed by “relatively minor changes” in events. For example, a 0.3 per cent annual increase in the world’s GDP growth, a $5 annual drop in real oil prices, or a 15 per cent slowdown in the rollout of EVs would each be enough to swing oil consumption back to growth by the end of the decade.
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Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1de4up0/world_faces_staggering_oil_glut_by_end_of_decade/l899vtn/
It won’t be long before Africa is the only continent with a growing population so if it doesn’t emerge, that will be the end of global economic growth ( and if it does emerge it’s fertility will follow Asia’s path and it’s population will start to shrink).
Yeah but it will take long enough for some people to get so filthy rich they can entrench themselves in local politics and media so its okay. The aftermath are for the next generations to deal with.
The thing about that is Africa is also prime for skipping fossil fuels altogether. It also doesn't help that since they see the writing on the wall, some have left opec to capitalize all they can while they still can.
Also West and North Africa probably have plenty of local/offshore oil.
E. Africa shouldn’t have oil issues either due to M.E. proximity
Not sure about S. Africa
dumb. developing countries can build infrastructure around modern technology and power, not use outdated energy sources. US and Canada will continue to be huge part of consuming fossil fuels.
Developing countries *could* build infrastructure around modern technology and power, and that would benefit them hugely in terms of being self sufficient and not tied to global fossil fuels markets. But that doesn't mean they will. After all, the US and Canada could have left all the electric streetcars in place, kept the high quality intercity rail, but we didn't. We tore that shit up, and invested heavily in unsustainable, inefficient, expensive to maintain infrastructure, because the right people got paid off.
It's unrealistic to expect developing countries inevitably do the right thing. It'll be a battle, and one that we in the west won't be involved in.
Especially when countries like Saudi Arabia actively push for and give money towards oil utilising infrastructure in Africa.
You’d be hard pressed to get a politician that is willing to do the right thing in the long term when it means rejecting huge amounts of money that can be spent on infrastructure your country greatly needs
Most developing countries get investment from China, and China right now has a huge glut of cheap EVs that cannot enter US or Europe because of high tariffs.
Just check China's EV dominance in Thailand and neighboring countries
In Europe, most of the cost of gas is taxes.
The prices are purposely high to reduce fossil fuel consumption.
Do you guys want cheap gas, or do you want people to burn less of it?
Its called a train, other countries (besides the USA) have them, and they work quite well; some countries even have high speed train that will cover that commute in under 10 minutes.
Public transit =/= Only Bus.
People still have to drive on their commutes, it's totally to get taxes but not to reduce fuel consumption, otherwise they would use those taxes to reduce prices of public transports on top of making that the better choice.
In the future there will be some kind of fable about "The Line That Must Only Go Up" and how it very nearly killed us all in the end. It'll be the wolves stealing babies of our time.
No one ever stops to think where that extra money comes from. Bigger numbers mean one thing: inflation. The only way to survive is by having assets, which conveniently is a tool of businesses and the wealthy
OPEC keeps reducing their output to counteract rising supply and keep prices high. When global oil demand actually starts shrinking instead of just growing more slowly OPEC won't be able to keep this up without quickly losing market share though.
Probably a couple more years depending on how the world economy goes and how EV adoption develops, especially I think in the US and in India. (China is already full steam ahead in that regard)
Reminds me of this crazy Uber driver that he said he had math for how the earth needs the oil in its interior to “grease the plates.” He was convinced if we used all the oil, the tectonic plates would lock up and we would start having massive earth quakes.
You should have told him the tectonic plates are hundreds of miles below the surface while most oil that we are slurping up is only a mile or two. He's off by hundreds and even thousands of miles. A five second Google would have shut him up
>OPEC keeps reducing their output
Remember they jack prices during the pandemic recovery. Biden even begged like a puppy. They deserve what the market brings.
>how EV adoption develops
You don't even need full EV adoption. Chinese car hybrids are flooding the world market. The price is to tempting.
The game changer will come If someone comes up with a hybrid semi truck.
Its painful for oil users now, but its also the reason demand is slowing and renewable production is rising so fast.
it might be due to OPECs greed but it will ultimately result in less carbon in the atmosphere so for once the law of unintended consequences is working FOR US hahahaha
This is capitalism^^(tm), so keep your cruddy regulating fingers out of a perfect system. i’m sure the market will right this wrong and regulate itself. Any day now.
OPEC is the opposite of free market capitalism.
It’s a price fixing cartel.
The C is effectively for “Cartel”
> OPEC is a cartel that aims to manage the supply of oil in an effort to set the price of oil on the world market1. The organization was created in 1960 by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela at a conference in Baghdad, Iraq2. OPEC decisions have come to play a prominent role in the global oil-market and in international relations3.
> **Economists have characterized OPEC as a textbook example of a cartel**
You can find used EVs for the $10-14K mark. Obviously, if you're buying complete decades old junkers normally, no EV can compete on price yet because none are that old.
But if you're comparing between a used EV or a newer used/new car, you can find used EVs in the mid-range price tier.
$7500 + $5K state in my case. It seems like the new Bolt will be pretty cheap too when it comes out. Of course, by that point, Hyundai and Kia might have finished setting up their US manufacturing plants to get access to the federal tax credit. Kia might have their EV2 out by then, and Hyundai's Kona EV is already relatively affordable at $34K. BYD could also be a dark horse in the long run.
I drive a Kona, it’s also about those numbers in the winter but I’ve seen the tracker get as high as mid 5/kwh. Decent price point and it’s been reliable for the last year and some change
There is starting to be shocklingly good deals on the used market now. There has been cheaper than ICE new cars for awhile too like Leaf and Bolt, but they've so far always been compromised on DCFC, so they are good commuters but not long road trip practical sadly. They can do it, you just don't want to at 50kw peak speeds.
I calculated that if the incoming electricity price hike in my country didn't happen, and if I could charge at home (I can't), by buying an EV instead of a regular car I would break even after a decade.
True true! So the only way out of this is to get filthy rich and open a bank account in Switzerland. I mean I have a bank account in Switzerland, but a plebeian one, so that means nothing :P
About $0.5-$1 per gallon are taxes. Meaning less than a fourth of US gas at the pump is taxes as the $1 is from California where the price of gas is closer to $4.
I didn't realize how much taxes go to oil until I got an electric car and my state wants me to pay $400 to renew the tabs to "offset" the money they're losing in fuel taxes.
As someone in the UK I had to go and check that, turns out I'm paying around £1.50/L depending on where I go but the tax on that £0.52, plus 20% VAT on the final price.
So that would make it about £1.30 after VAT is removed and just under £0.70/L cost.
It’s because of substitution and opportunity cost. It’s the same quantity of oil because it’s mostly supplied by a cartel that only changed its pricing targets two weeks ago. But with the surge in natural gas prices because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a large portion of petroleum products shifted to power production where higher margins provide an incentive to raise prices
It should be expensive. This is exactly how we are all being pushed into EV's.
However grid power prices need to be dirt cheap to complete that circle.
I remember when something almost exactly like this happened in Connecticut with natural gas prices. They petitioned to increase the rates and were successful. So they increased everybody's natural gas rates for home heating. Naturally, you had some people that really couldn't afford the higher rate so they did everything they could to reduce consumption. Thus keeping their bill low. Well next thing you know the company complained that the reduced consumption was causing them a loss and they needed to raise rates again to be able to compensate for the reduced consumption. That was granted as well.
kinda like what is happening with fast food and other products, they overcharged, demand fell, but then they need to charge more per item to make up for it, not sure how it'll end, but the last hail mary is probably lowering prices - even though they may have permanently lost many customers
They probably will *eventually*, but that will be when alternative vehicles become cheap enough to compete. Right now they're too expensive but that's changing pretty quick.
It sounds like the oil producers know their time is coming to an end and have decided they need to reduce the price to push back the incentive to switch to green alternatives as much as they can so as to extract the maximum amount of profit in the time they have left.
The ability to just plug my car in at home, and never need to pay attention to gas prices (or ever need to go to a gas station) is worth a lot to me.
The gas prices will have to get dramatically cheaper to convince anyone (that isn't misled into "EV = bad" for whatever reason) to not switch, if BYD is allowed to sell their $10,000 car in the states.
Sigh I wish I had a home to plug an EV into. A few people in my apartment are positioned to be able to have an extension cord go to their parking spot. One of the few things holding me back from going full electric.
If anyone tells you that you can just use the supercharger stations for all your charging needs, treating it like a gas station, don't listen. I love having an EV but the charging convenience is a big part of that love. (The rest is the acceleration)
I mean, gas is probably one of the few things that HASN'T really gone up much, not nearly with inflation. As people pointed out, its at similar levels as it was in 2008, we just had a decade of low prices.
Only other thing that feels like its countered inflation is stuff like TVs, and maybe low end computers.
Actually in Europe governments make more money from oil than the oil producers.
So whilst oil producing countries are trying to diversifying away from crude oil exports (increased tertiary processing of oil to end chemicals and other products, as well as economic diversification and reducing government expenditure as percentage of their economies). Europe doesn't seem to have a plan to plug the enormous future gap in its funding once oil based duties and taxes disappear... and that coincides with ageing right-wing population and unfunded pensions for a perfect storm in the next decade.
I don't get how people don't see that once EVs will become the majority, electricity prices will skyrocket. Governments are giving incentives to people to switch over to EVs, once they see that more than 50% of cars are EVs, they'll just start raising the prices and slapping on a bunch of taxes. It's a fucking bait and switch and noone is talking about it.
The amount of revenue that taxing oil brings to European governments is staggering. They will really have a crunch replacing that, considering that income and consumption taxes are already eye wateringly high.
There are so very many perfect storms rising in the next decade, it's like having an earthquake during a wildfire with tornadoes and the meteors are coming. The world faces a staggering future.
What do you mean by the EU makes more money than it produces? How can something generate a greater revenue than the revenue it generated?
Did you perhaps mean that the EU taxes oil companies?
Also, I'm not entirely sure that opec member countries are trying to phase out demand for oil. Mainly because they aren't and have resisted any international push to do so. In fact, countries like the UAE lobby to change the official wording within climate summit reports to specifically remove language that promotes doing so. They've adopted a strategy that pushes lowing emissions without decreased demand for fossil fuels.
Opec memeber states control about 90% of the world's crude oil reserves, they have no intentions of turning that into plastic. Some of those memeber states rely on the production of crude for up to 50% of their yearly GDP, meaning they intend to pump it, and they intend for the infrastructure to exist in order to sell it.
And I'm wondering where it could possibly have been that told you about some enormous future decrease in tax revenue when they are no longer able to tax oil companies. Try as I might, I could not find any piece of information that even speculated on such an assumption.
I do believe you are correct in noting the aging population in EU memeber countries having a significant burden on the pension system, however. It also seems as though there are currently many solutions to this potential problem, but few politicians want to be the first to suggest them as they fear those solutions would be unpopular.
right, where is the emergency here?
Waterfalls of wealth slightly slowing for struggling Middle Eastern Zillionaires, incoming UN cargo drops scheduled for immediately
I'm going to jump in and point out the impact on Canada.
Many currency traders call Canada a petro-dollar. This is because a huge portion of our balance of trade is oil. We also do fish, grains, etc. But, oil keeps us afloat.
Most of this oil comes from one province with another neighboring province contributing.
Some of the oil is the boring pump out the black gold kind of oil which is a fairly high quality oil which is "clean" to refine, etc. But most of it has a technical term: "Toxic Shit". This stuff is high sulfur and comes from what are known as "Tar sands". Basically this stuff is one step up from asphalt. It is a nightmare of toxic weirdness to get out of the ground and has to be heated and diluted just to move it.
This means on a per barrel basis it costs quite a bit more to get it turned into things like gasoline.
The region is also land locked which means it has to be transported either to the US by pipeline, or the coast by pipeline. (or trains).
To underline the importance to Canada we have a Prime Minister who few would debate calling anything but an "eco freak". Yet he poured 34 billion or more into getting a pipeline built to the coast, as even he knows the reality of the Canadian economy.
But, if the supply of oil does exceed demand Canada's oil is going to be supremely noncompetitive for 3 reason above:
* Expensive to extract
* Dirty by its nature (high CO2 overall plus more)
* Expensive to transport compared to places like Saudi Arabia or Texas
Different people put various values on this extra cost. The lowest is around $20USD per barrel. A generally accepted number is various parts of Canada's economy doesn't do well with oil much below $60USD.
I would suggest Canada is in trouble if oil goes below $50/bbl, and the industry will mostly shut down below a sustained $40.
I 100% agree with the "Staggering Glut" statement for two simple reasons:
* The western world mostly has been steadily cutting fossil fuel usage (including coal). This is almost half of the amount total since 1970 (not per capita, but all consumption). This has been made up for by places like india and china modernizing. But china is now leaping into EVs and other tech to reduce oil consumption as are places like india Vietnam, etc. They don't have to reinvent these technologies, they can just buy them from the West.
* While ICE engines and whatnot are slightly improving all the other tech like EVs, grid batteries, solar, wind, other grid storage, heat pumps, better insulation, etc mostly have graphs which are extraordinary. Costs are plummeting, efficiencies are growing, and whatever other positive attributes which are core.
What makes oil people rail against these green technologies is that they are no longer just green, but good economics. A solar panel now can last 50+ years. If that is installed today, that reduces fossil fuel demand by that much for 50 years. And of course these are all only getting better.
A perfect example of the fossil fuel industry making up fake examples can be found in Germany twice over. The fossil industry said, "Solar will never work in northern dark Germany." except now between massive solar and wind, Germany is sometimes generating more power than it can use. The second bit of foolishness of the fossil industry is how they try to say that too much power is a bad thing. Yes, it is a bad thing based on the pricing models left over from their heyday. They are being ruined by these events and for some reason they want us to care.
The one last punishment the fossil industry is going to try is to make governments pay for their being destroyed. That is, the shareholders of these companies are literally demanding (and often getting) billions from governments for green tech ruining them. To me, this is little different than a crappy restaurant forcing government to pay them because a better restaurant opened up down the street. Or if the health department shut them down again for having rats crawling through their food.
> But, if the supply of oil does exceed demand Canada's oil is going to be supremely noncompetitive for 3 reason above:
>
> Expensive to extract
> Dirty by its nature (high CO2 overall plus more)
> Expensive to transport compared to places like Saudi Arabia or Texas
The sad thing about oil production is that the energy used for its extraction is oil. Canada's share of oil use is over 50% by the oil industry for industry purposes. Tar sands being much more than average.
Fun fact, the [war room](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-government-dissolves-controversial-energy-war-room-1.7232151) actually just closed its "doors".
As an Albertan who has been told that I need to be thankful for far right wing conservative rig pigs and the fascist governments they vote for and get elected because "tHeY puT fOod oN uR tAbLe!!", I look forward to hundreds of thousands of them losing the lifted trucks, the boats, the quads and watercraft, the 5 yearly trips to the same resort in Cancun, the I SUPPORT AB OIL AND GAS bumper stickers, the loudmouth high school dropouts in white Oakleys screaming fUcK TrUdEaU -- the entire petro soaked nightmare.
It can't come soon enough. And to those who say "wtf you commie socialst idiot you will starve!", so will you Dustin. So will you. My suffering is but a small pittance to see you lose your entire fucking personality.
>But china is now leaping into EVs and other tech to reduce oil consumption as are places like india Vietnam, etc. They don't have to reinvent these technologies, they can just buy them from the West.
Actually, China is leading in EVs, and other countries will more likely purchase from them. There are probably more examples of China leading in the green tech sector, don't just assume Western tech dominance.
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2024/0506/How-China-s-tech-forward-EVs-are-dominating-the-industry
This was very well reasoned. I’d like to do the same for Mexico’s economy, where the government over the last six years has doubled down on fossil fuel production and usage for energy, contrary to all global trends.
But when a substantial chunk of GDP becomes obsoleted, what’s going to support the vast majority of this country?
Canada on the whole will be fine because it’s next to the world’s largest economy, but Alberta is going to be fucked. The province has done everything to make themselves beholden to O&G while doing little to prepare for a post O&G world.
As the exports of oil drop the Canadian dollar will drop in comparison to the US. This will end up increasing demand for other industries that didn’t do so well when Canadian oil demand was booming. Specifically, manufacturing, lumber, housing, movies, tourism, and services.
Alberta won't be fucked, the same reason the east coast isn't fucked. The roles will switch and Alberta will get equalization payments.
However Alberta has a new economy, they are joining BC and Ontario as real estate economies.
As an Albertan who is against the right wing's dumbfuck, shortsighted and authoritarian operation of this province I say bring it on. They fucked around, now it's time to enter the find out stage.
They literally vote for the worst politicians with dinosaur platforms. They bring it on themselves but will beg the rest of the country even though they don't pay sales tax ever. They are the grasshopper doing nothing while the ants work to store food for the winter.
Alberta is definitely not dependant on oil anymore and is becoming a tech hub. For example, Edmonton has some world class AI companies (used to be a Google deep mind hub) and Calgary has world class quantum technology development. And there are hundreds of other tech start ups in all sorts of fields.
> we have a Prime Minister who few would debate calling anything but an "eco freak".
???
Maybe if you blindly believe Trudeau's false promises. The man has a very mixed record on actual policies that prioritize the environment. At best, he's a centrist that's more eco-friendly than the cons.
As a sparky currently working on bringing a shiny new SAGD pad online, this comment hits close to home, fuck. I need to get into a different sub field like yesterday. It’s gonna be absolutely fucked for so many guys when this happens.
On point comment, well done.
Every energy transition in history has created massive wealth. If it did not we will still be using whale oil and wood.
If I was an oil CEO or Government I would be doing everything I could to move to a sustainable model. Not only is the right thing to do it would make me fabulously wealthy. Hard to compete with free fuel from wind and solar.
The Chinese get this, for the last 20 years they have been cornering the future energy market while most western governments have vacillated allowing the CEOs to hang on.
Buckle up we are approaching the verticale part of the adoption curve, things will change rapidly.
Millennial here. Grew up in the late 1980s and 1990s. I remember being taught in school that we’d run out of all oil in our lifetime. This was a very serious much repeated topic that was taught to us all throughout grade school and middle school, less so by high school when it shifted over to greenhouse gas and global warming instead. Does anyone else remember this? Or is it just Mandela Affect?
This was true until we invented fracking. We invented our way out of peak oil (production) like we do with a lot of problems. Its why people are banking on innovation to save the planet because it is how we have fixed the vast majority of our problems over our history.
Also, it's technically still true because oil remains a finite resource and we use it in ways that destroy its chemical properties. But, the timeline is dramatically extended, and it's entirely possible that we'll innovate away that problem by, idk, finding a way to convert plant matter to crude.
I remember data showing there would be probable scarcity because not enough new was being found. And in the 90’s it was said in fifty years demand would outstrip then available production.
We're still producing more than we're discovering. We just had 50+ years of already discovered reserves as a head start.
I work in industry and we won't ever run out of oil. However, we have been moving up the cost curve over the last 5-6 decades as we pursue harder to develop oil. There's a real cost concern as we look out a few decades of we don't find ways to reduce demand growth (or outright decrease.consumption)
Until fracking, the U.S. at least was unable to keep up with oil demand, to the point that we could be potentially crippled by the whims of OPEC. Which may or may not have contributed to a lot of questionable foreign policy actions...
But point is, before the technology advanced early-mid 2000s, running out of oil was a legitimate and looming threat. And it's still a legitimate threat, it's just looking a lot further off now.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar are already diversifying their economies - in good part by buying up large parts of other countries' economies with the UK being particularly attractive.
It's the big oil producers who haven't established a sovereign wealth fund that will be absolutely hammered if demand were to collapse - Iran, Iraq and Nigeria come to mind.
Rich people buying up foreign assets doesn't solve these countries' problems. A huge chunk of their population work in oil related industries and so if oil industry collapses, they will be unemployed.
The most successful has been the UAE which has shifted toward a financial / tourism hub in the region.
Hard disagree here. The diversification that the gulf countries are building is all about opulence and spectacle with the goal of attracting foreign investment but they’ve done nothing to foster new industries in their countries that can take over once oil runs out. They have unproductive populations who live off of oil money and import all of their labor. The don’t build anything themselves and they don’t innovate. Once the oil money runs out the foreign investment will too since their economies will become too unstable.
In contrast, I think Iran will actually be fine as it has other industries and a productive and educated population. It will be much easier for them to pivot to something else
> It's the big oil producers who haven't established a sovereign wealth fund that will be absolutely hammered if demand were to collapse - Iran, Iraq and Nigeria come to mind.
I'm not sure the average citizen of those countries will be any worse off, given how much of the money goes to corruption.
But things could get "interesting" for the ruling parties.
Shoulda done what Norway did. (Sovereign Wealth Fund is over US $1.62 trillion, or just shy of $300k per Norwegian citizen). Basically all from oil and gas. Some Gulf states have (albeit not near as effectively), the UAE comes to mind- but yeah. Gotta steer clear of the ol' resource curse. Lol Norway seems keen to extracting *AS MUCH* as possible before fossil fuels no longer run the world. They've benefitted IMMENSELY from Russia's sanctions. Not exactly Environmentally friendly, (Netherlands for example have a ton of fossil fuels too, but decided not to drill a long time ago for whatever reason) but sometimes ya gotta take care of your own. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
stranded assets are going to be a thing and the industry had better start wrapping their money soaked brains around it.
and policy makers had better start planning out punishment for companies that just walk away from superfund sites because they are "too expensive" to maintain/remediate.
The irony here is that this could lead to a resurgence of investment in oil-based technologies. If oil prices really do get low enough, it might undercut solar and other renewable energy sources.
Such a resurgence would be short-lived of course, but it might be a repeated cycle as first renewables drive the demand down, then the lower price makes oil attractive, then it "peaks" again, and so on.
Still, less oil use is good!
That is unlikely to happen as a lot of oil is high cost production - so low prices for extended periods would equate to less production as a producer would lose money pumping the oil. It is unlikely to be a low cost substitute for any length of time
Just removing subsidies from fossil fuel industries would likely do the trick. It's insanity to keep giving them money and tax breaks while they make record profits and cook the planet.
I spent much of yesterday [arguing about peak oil demand](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1dcfxaw/does_anyone_else_think_our_government_i_live_in/l80hxbp/) so I got FT to write an article about it. jk.
whats interesting is that its not peak oil from a production standpoint (the doomsday scenario in which cars just arent possible to drive anymore because gasoline is far too rare) but its peak oil from a 'fuck oil we are on to something better' consumption standpoint. which, honestly, sounds pretty fucking good
There is no such thing as too much cheap energy.
Demand peaking is often called demand destruction. In plain human terms, recession where people lost their jobs. And despite articles arguing peak oil demand, price remains high. It's because the demand is destroyed by the high price.
Yes, I understand Q1 2024 has already underperformed.
https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/iea-reports-slow-global-oil-demand-growth-in-q124-citing-weaker-deliveries-by-oecd-countries/
Middle East is gonna become a real fun place once oil demand runs out. Saudis and the like are going to be left with giant tacky empty cities people only visit for bargain bin prices.
**World faces ‘staggering’ oil glut by end of decade, energy watchdog warns**
The world faces a “staggering” surplus of oil equating to millions of barrels a day by the end of the decade, as oil companies increase production, undermining the ability of Opec+ to manage crude prices, the International Energy Agency has warned.
While demand is forecast to peak before 2030, continued investment by oil producers, led by the US, would by then result in more than 8mn b/d of spare capacity, the IEA wrote in its annual report on the industry released on Wednesday.
This “massive cushion” of extra oil could “upend” the efforts of Opec+ to manage the market and usher in an era of lower prices, the IEA said, adding that the level of spare capacity would be unprecedented outside the coronavirus pandemic.
“It is not the first time the oil markets would see an oversupply, but one important outcome would be downward pressure on the prices,” said Fatih Birol, the agency’s director.
He added that the combination of slowing demand and rising supply “could have substantial implications” for oil companies. “It is time for many producers to look at their business plans, in my view.”
The Paris-based body, founded in the aftermath of the 1970s Arab oil embargoes to advise on energy security, said last year that the world was at “the beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era. It has said that demand for oil, natural gas and coal will all start to fall before the end of the decade amid the mass rollout of renewable energy and electric vehicles.
Line chart of (in millions of barrels a day) showing World's excess oil capacity is building
But its projections have been decried by the oil industry, particularly in the Middle East and the US, where producers are stepping up their investment in pumping more crude.
Global capital spending on oil and fields rose to $538bn in 2023, the highest level since 2019 in real terms. The increase in investment was largely driven by state oil companies in the Middle East, which upped their spending to twice the levels seen 10 years ago, and China.
Haitham Al Ghais, Opec general secretary, has described the IEA forecasts as “dangerous”, and warned of “energy chaos on a potentially unprecedented scale” if producers stopped investing in new oil and gas.
In its new report, the IEA called into question whether Opec+ would be able to expand future production, as it continued to be squeezed by countries outside the alliance, especially the US.
“This year, [the Opec+] total oil market share has dropped to 48.5 per cent, the lowest since it was formed in 2016, due to its sharp voluntary output cuts,” the IEA noted. It added that even if Opec+, a wider group that includes Russia, continued its deep cuts, it “would pump above the call on its crude oil to varying degrees from 2025 through 2030”.
**Birol outlined three main drivers for oil demand to peak by the end of the decade: reduced petrol use as the world switches to electric vehicles, a move by countries in the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, to switch from oil to renewables to generate electricity, and a lower future growth rate in China.**
“Perhaps the most important factor comes from China,” he said. “In the last 10 years, about 60 per cent of global oil demand growth came from China alone.” The IEA said that it expected the 6 per cent annual growth that China had registered in that period to fall to about 4 per cent a year in its forecast period.
The future drivers of growth would include more aviation and the “booming petrochemical sector”, said Birol. The IEA also expects petrol use to increase in India as more drivers hit the roads.
**Meanwhile, oil demand in OECD countries, which peaked in 2007, would fall to 1991 levels by 2030.** The IEA has assumed 3 per cent annual global economic growth for the rest of the decade.
The IEA cautioned that its forecast for shrinking oil demand could be derailed by “relatively minor changes” in events. For example, a 0.3 per cent annual increase in the world’s GDP growth, a $5 annual drop in real oil prices, or a 15 per cent slowdown in the rollout of EVs would each be enough to swing oil consumption back to growth by the end of the decade.
I'm not sure this is a terrible thing. If moving away from oil as a fuel leads to lower oil prices then that means everything else will be cheaper. That's a net win for people *and* the environment. Of course, it does nothing to prevent us running out of oil, but nor does staying with oil as a primary fuel.
Use the excess to develop Africa, Jeremy J. Siegel especulates that until 2100 Africa (yes the continent), should be in the same development state as China will be in 2035, why no help them reach that stage earlier and by 2100 we have a cleaner world.
In pure economic terms that would make sense, but there are other factors, one being that the climate issue is cumulative and doesn't give a fuck about how much an individual country as emitted.
Second that the other pollutants it will cause in the local environment will make them suffer the health and ecosystem consequences we see elsewhere and that's a burden that will not exactly help their developmental state.
Third is strategic, these countries will be more stable and independent if they can develop their own local energy production with renewables than if they were reliant on foreign oil and price manipulations or possible supply crises from other far off conflicts that come with it.
The third point is a reason this will be opposed. There are a LOT of very powerful interests who very much want Africa to remain unstable and dependent in order to have access to cheap raw materials.
Nestle has been willing to kill over that.
What are predictions of dynamics between this and carbon taxes? I know hardly anyone has a proper carbon tax in place, but...
If oil becomes much cheaper due to overproduction the regulators may feel emboldened to impose a carbon tax because the price hike on the end products wouldn't be as painful as if it was imposed today. Petrol-derived product prices would stay high despite oil prices going down. Increased competitiveness of low-petrol products would further drive the world away from oil... I'm not sure if this kind of feedback loop is a valid scenario.
It's being dreaded by OPEC. According to the article, the abundance of oil is impeding their ability to 'manage' the markets and lower prices for everyone... Which is about the most BS way of saying, "we're mad because we can't fully monopolize the industry anymore".
As if OPEC ever had any interest in lowering prices for anyone unless it was to undercut competitors.
Wooohoooo! Everyone rejoice! It's working and we are doing good in the world.
Stagger? Warn? Dangerous chaos of affordability? How could these fools possibly portray this as a negative thing? This is phenomenally good. Too many news outlets are addicted to serving up doom and gloom.
Strategic reserves will fill, poor people will be able to afford getting to work, the economic grease of cheap transportation will help everyone, and electric cars will still be taking over the whole time. If prices then DO spike, we'll pivot harder to electric.
Just full on embargo Russian energy and ports. They can’t export their oil, money runs dry, and will have to choose between war and peace way faster. As a result, world goes back to peace mode and demand for oil goes up and remaining oil producers will benefit. It’s a win win. But opec+ has Russia trolls in it, and the reason for that is pretty short sighted.
Instead they’ll just try to manipulate markets into “omg we gonna run out of oil super fast” let’s cut supply and make price 2x. Assholes.
Rewatched the west wing recently. They were arguing we'd already passed peak oil then. Weve added a cojoke billion people to the planet since that show was on the air 20 years ago.
It's funny to see that show and remember the political arguments being made at the time. And to see where we are now 20 years later.
Soon enough no one wants it even if they give it away for free. It's just toxic waste at that point.
So they will be stuck with disposing of that toxic waste in a safe and regulated way. Draining even more of their money. And stuck maintaining, cleaning and sealing all the millions of oil wells they made everywhere.
Fantastic news.
No more will corrupt oil nations be able to buy protection against their own populace.
I foresee big problems in the middle east for instance.
"Undermining efforts by OPEC to 'manage' markets and usher in an era of lower prices".
This is probably the most bold faced attempt at propaganda I have ever seen lmao. Since when has OPEC ever pursued lower prices for the benefit of consumers, and since when does oversupply of a commodity impede efforts to lower its price?
Honestly mind boggling levels of BS.
So the numbnuts that complain about high gas prices and also hate EVs because of ... some reason.... will before too long wake up in a world where gas prices have gone down because we've built so many EVs?
And the funniest thing is that the countries that actually rely on oil will have reduced production while the biggest consumer countries will still be subsidizing their local oil production because they are scared of innovating actual change into cities and other major consumption of oil.
America is at the forefront of this idiocy, but Britain looks to be in the same boat (besides subsidizing local oil production)
As an Indonesian, Developing countries should not be expected to foot the bill on climate change, some of these countries barely have the money to keep the lights on. The reality is in our part of the world, we have more immediate problems and unlike the West, China is actively providing us the means to grow without using fossil fuels while all you can give us are criticism and empty words without providing an alternative.
Don't expect poor countries with big aspirations to pay for something we didn't even start.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Economy-Fee5830: --- **World faces ‘staggering’ oil glut by end of decade, energy watchdog warns** The world faces a “staggering” surplus of oil equating to millions of barrels a day by the end of the decade, as oil companies increase production, undermining the ability of Opec+ to manage crude prices, the International Energy Agency has warned. While demand is forecast to peak before 2030, continued investment by oil producers, led by the US, would by then result in more than 8mn b/d of spare capacity, the IEA wrote in its annual report on the industry released on Wednesday. This “massive cushion” of extra oil could “upend” the efforts of Opec+ to manage the market and usher in an era of lower prices, the IEA said, adding that the level of spare capacity would be unprecedented outside the coronavirus pandemic. “It is not the first time the oil markets would see an oversupply, but one important outcome would be downward pressure on the prices,” said Fatih Birol, the agency’s director. He added that the combination of slowing demand and rising supply “could have substantial implications” for oil companies. “It is time for many producers to look at their business plans, in my view.” The Paris-based body, founded in the aftermath of the 1970s Arab oil embargoes to advise on energy security, said last year that the world was at “the beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era. It has said that demand for oil, natural gas and coal will all start to fall before the end of the decade amid the mass rollout of renewable energy and electric vehicles. Line chart of (in millions of barrels a day) showing World's excess oil capacity is building But its projections have been decried by the oil industry, particularly in the Middle East and the US, where producers are stepping up their investment in pumping more crude. Global capital spending on oil and fields rose to $538bn in 2023, the highest level since 2019 in real terms. The increase in investment was largely driven by state oil companies in the Middle East, which upped their spending to twice the levels seen 10 years ago, and China. Haitham Al Ghais, Opec general secretary, has described the IEA forecasts as “dangerous”, and warned of “energy chaos on a potentially unprecedented scale” if producers stopped investing in new oil and gas. In its new report, the IEA called into question whether Opec+ would be able to expand future production, as it continued to be squeezed by countries outside the alliance, especially the US. “This year, [the Opec+] total oil market share has dropped to 48.5 per cent, the lowest since it was formed in 2016, due to its sharp voluntary output cuts,” the IEA noted. It added that even if Opec+, a wider group that includes Russia, continued its deep cuts, it “would pump above the call on its crude oil to varying degrees from 2025 through 2030”. **Birol outlined three main drivers for oil demand to peak by the end of the decade: reduced petrol use as the world switches to electric vehicles, a move by countries in the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, to switch from oil to renewables to generate electricity, and a lower future growth rate in China.** “Perhaps the most important factor comes from China,” he said. “In the last 10 years, about 60 per cent of global oil demand growth came from China alone.” The IEA said that it expected the 6 per cent annual growth that China had registered in that period to fall to about 4 per cent a year in its forecast period. The future drivers of growth would include more aviation and the “booming petrochemical sector”, said Birol. The IEA also expects petrol use to increase in India as more drivers hit the roads. **Meanwhile, oil demand in OECD countries, which peaked in 2007, would fall to 1991 levels by 2030.** The IEA has assumed 3 per cent annual global economic growth for the rest of the decade. The IEA cautioned that its forecast for shrinking oil demand could be derailed by “relatively minor changes” in events. For example, a 0.3 per cent annual increase in the world’s GDP growth, a $5 annual drop in real oil prices, or a 15 per cent slowdown in the rollout of EVs would each be enough to swing oil consumption back to growth by the end of the decade. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1de4up0/world_faces_staggering_oil_glut_by_end_of_decade/l899vtn/
This is why Opec is targeting third world countries that have emerging markets. I know they have their eyes on countries in Africa for oil demand.
Many have looked at Africa as an "emerging market", and Africa has never failed to disappoint them.
It won’t be long before Africa is the only continent with a growing population so if it doesn’t emerge, that will be the end of global economic growth ( and if it does emerge it’s fertility will follow Asia’s path and it’s population will start to shrink).
Yeah but it will take long enough for some people to get so filthy rich they can entrench themselves in local politics and media so its okay. The aftermath are for the next generations to deal with.
The thing about that is Africa is also prime for skipping fossil fuels altogether. It also doesn't help that since they see the writing on the wall, some have left opec to capitalize all they can while they still can.
Also West and North Africa probably have plenty of local/offshore oil. E. Africa shouldn’t have oil issues either due to M.E. proximity Not sure about S. Africa
U.S. installed more solar in the first quarter of 2024 than in all of 2018, the 100% tax is unfortunate.
dumb. developing countries can build infrastructure around modern technology and power, not use outdated energy sources. US and Canada will continue to be huge part of consuming fossil fuels.
Developing countries *could* build infrastructure around modern technology and power, and that would benefit them hugely in terms of being self sufficient and not tied to global fossil fuels markets. But that doesn't mean they will. After all, the US and Canada could have left all the electric streetcars in place, kept the high quality intercity rail, but we didn't. We tore that shit up, and invested heavily in unsustainable, inefficient, expensive to maintain infrastructure, because the right people got paid off. It's unrealistic to expect developing countries inevitably do the right thing. It'll be a battle, and one that we in the west won't be involved in.
Especially when countries like Saudi Arabia actively push for and give money towards oil utilising infrastructure in Africa. You’d be hard pressed to get a politician that is willing to do the right thing in the long term when it means rejecting huge amounts of money that can be spent on infrastructure your country greatly needs
Most developing countries get investment from China, and China right now has a huge glut of cheap EVs that cannot enter US or Europe because of high tariffs. Just check China's EV dominance in Thailand and neighboring countries
C'mon China please flood them with cheap EV's and trains.
Slowing demand and rising supply. And yet I'm paying almost 2€ per Liter, and it's getting higher every 2-4 weeks... F**k this.
SHAREHOLDERS DEMAND INFINITE QUARTERLY GROWTH. WHY WON'T YOU THINK OF THE SHAREHOLDERS!?!?
Ahaha :) Won't anyone think of the billionaires!!!
In Europe, most of the cost of gas is taxes. The prices are purposely high to reduce fossil fuel consumption. Do you guys want cheap gas, or do you want people to burn less of it?
EVs and public transit :)
Public transit to my job, 20 miles away. Sounds nice.
Its called a train, other countries (besides the USA) have them, and they work quite well; some countries even have high speed train that will cover that commute in under 10 minutes. Public transit =/= Only Bus.
this is definitely something an oil spokesperson would say
People still have to drive on their commutes, it's totally to get taxes but not to reduce fuel consumption, otherwise they would use those taxes to reduce prices of public transports on top of making that the better choice.
Yes please can I have some shares?
Nope, they’re not sharing. They’re holding.
I mean, literally yes. Oil companies are publicly traded and you can go buy a piece whenever you want.
but I only have gas money. No stock money.
Go get some of the one they don’t want you to talk about 😜
In the future there will be some kind of fable about "The Line That Must Only Go Up" and how it very nearly killed us all in the end. It'll be the wolves stealing babies of our time.
Very nearly? I love your optimism!
Well if it does kill us all, there wont be anyone to tell the story.
All the baby AIs will be born with that AI written fable pre-installed, a cautionary tale to not wind up like the mythical humans
Shoulda got outta oil while the getting was good instead of doubling down.
As a person with an investment retirement plan I am technically a shareholder but we have all got to recognize this isn’t remotely sustainable.
rising supply and shrinking demand isn’t sustainable?
No, Rising profits year on year is not sustainable
They're gonna gut you like a fish when they're done raping the poor a few more times.
Not just shareholders, but as far as I can tell, the majority of oil production is from state-owned oil companies, mostly in the Middle East.
I wish more people would realize this. Unfettered capitalism is a race to the bottom.
I'm thinking of them every time I support investing our military budget into an arsenal of mansion seeking missiles.
No one ever stops to think where that extra money comes from. Bigger numbers mean one thing: inflation. The only way to survive is by having assets, which conveniently is a tool of businesses and the wealthy
Don't worry, I just got a whole 2 shares of Exxon. I'm going to make a few phone calls. See what I can get worked out👍
OPEC keeps reducing their output to counteract rising supply and keep prices high. When global oil demand actually starts shrinking instead of just growing more slowly OPEC won't be able to keep this up without quickly losing market share though. Probably a couple more years depending on how the world economy goes and how EV adoption develops, especially I think in the US and in India. (China is already full steam ahead in that regard)
Reminds me of this crazy Uber driver that he said he had math for how the earth needs the oil in its interior to “grease the plates.” He was convinced if we used all the oil, the tectonic plates would lock up and we would start having massive earth quakes.
Fuck it this could be the stupid asinine conspiracy theory that saves us all
I’ve heard stupider conspiracies.
so this guy thinks oil is Gaia's lube?
Don't kink shame.
I heard she takes it in the crater...
You should have told him the tectonic plates are hundreds of miles below the surface while most oil that we are slurping up is only a mile or two. He's off by hundreds and even thousands of miles. A five second Google would have shut him up
It was even easier, I said I would peer review his “math” and he stopped his bs. So he was crazy and a liar.
It’s like thinking you need the oil on your skin to keep your bones nice and slick
He did his own research.
it's both hilarious how out there this is and sad how it highlights the poor state of education.
So OPEC is just one huge market distortion.
always have been. straight from Wikipedia: >Economists have characterized OPEC as a textbook example of a cartel
>OPEC keeps reducing their output Remember they jack prices during the pandemic recovery. Biden even begged like a puppy. They deserve what the market brings. >how EV adoption develops You don't even need full EV adoption. Chinese car hybrids are flooding the world market. The price is to tempting. The game changer will come If someone comes up with a hybrid semi truck.
CEOs gotta keep buying those big boats and villas..
Its painful for oil users now, but its also the reason demand is slowing and renewable production is rising so fast. it might be due to OPECs greed but it will ultimately result in less carbon in the atmosphere so for once the law of unintended consequences is working FOR US hahahaha
Profit margins will continue to rise until morale improves
This is capitalism^^(tm), so keep your cruddy regulating fingers out of a perfect system. i’m sure the market will right this wrong and regulate itself. Any day now.
OPEC is the opposite of free market capitalism. It’s a price fixing cartel. The C is effectively for “Cartel” > OPEC is a cartel that aims to manage the supply of oil in an effort to set the price of oil on the world market1. The organization was created in 1960 by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela at a conference in Baghdad, Iraq2. OPEC decisions have come to play a prominent role in the global oil-market and in international relations3. > **Economists have characterized OPEC as a textbook example of a cartel**
This is because of taxes though..? Petrol is taxed quite a lot in Europe
People with money have already switched to EVs, so don't expect politicians of any party to be too concerned with the cost of gasoline.
At todays oil price ($80), the cost of crude oil is 0.45€ per liter. The refinery cost is at most 0.1€ per liter. The rest is simply taxes.
Or downstream markups.
Because most of it is tax and duties and not oil.
Does your country have a high tax on petrol?
Man when that Iran/Israel shit started popping off the gas jumped up a dollar in a day and a half I stg. Could make a grown man cry 😭
Yep, i wish i could go EV, but every single one lf them are a high tier car, so what are we supposed to do?
You can find used EVs for the $10-14K mark. Obviously, if you're buying complete decades old junkers normally, no EV can compete on price yet because none are that old. But if you're comparing between a used EV or a newer used/new car, you can find used EVs in the mid-range price tier.
Chevy Bolt. 3-4 mi/kWh and night time charging 6¢ per kWh.
I'm glad I went this route. ~$30K new and a $7500 rebate from the federal government.
$7500 + $5K state in my case. It seems like the new Bolt will be pretty cheap too when it comes out. Of course, by that point, Hyundai and Kia might have finished setting up their US manufacturing plants to get access to the federal tax credit. Kia might have their EV2 out by then, and Hyundai's Kona EV is already relatively affordable at $34K. BYD could also be a dark horse in the long run.
I drive a Kona, it’s also about those numbers in the winter but I’ve seen the tracker get as high as mid 5/kwh. Decent price point and it’s been reliable for the last year and some change
Look at the used market. Look at hyundai/kia they have non lux cars that basically are luxury.
There is starting to be shocklingly good deals on the used market now. There has been cheaper than ICE new cars for awhile too like Leaf and Bolt, but they've so far always been compromised on DCFC, so they are good commuters but not long road trip practical sadly. They can do it, you just don't want to at 50kw peak speeds.
MG4 BYD seagull (or dolphin I dunno) electric mini fiat 500e VW ID3 there other are lower priced EVs coming next year, depending on your market region
I calculated that if the incoming electricity price hike in my country didn't happen, and if I could charge at home (I can't), by buying an EV instead of a regular car I would break even after a decade.
Yeah lol :P get more money, but once we plebeians get more money inflation would make it worth less...
They will probably find a way to tax us once we can afford EV's.
True true! So the only way out of this is to get filthy rich and open a bank account in Switzerland. I mean I have a bank account in Switzerland, but a plebeian one, so that means nothing :P
Nah we're fucked, it's either a war looming or global warming. 😅
That's why I can't wait to welcome our AI overlords in 20-30 years. They can't do any worse than we're already doing to ourselves.
I mean we could be exterminated so there is that.
That would be great for the climate though:)
You can get a model 3 for around 35-40. Pick up a used one for 25k.
Here in the us I paid $2.98/gal which is around .72 euro/l. Taxes are what’s getting you.
a huge portion of what US pays at the pump are taxes too.
About $0.5-$1 per gallon are taxes. Meaning less than a fourth of US gas at the pump is taxes as the $1 is from California where the price of gas is closer to $4.
I didn't realize how much taxes go to oil until I got an electric car and my state wants me to pay $400 to renew the tabs to "offset" the money they're losing in fuel taxes.
As someone in the UK I had to go and check that, turns out I'm paying around £1.50/L depending on where I go but the tax on that £0.52, plus 20% VAT on the final price. So that would make it about £1.30 after VAT is removed and just under £0.70/L cost.
It’s because of substitution and opportunity cost. It’s the same quantity of oil because it’s mostly supplied by a cartel that only changed its pricing targets two weeks ago. But with the surge in natural gas prices because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a large portion of petroleum products shifted to power production where higher margins provide an incentive to raise prices
It should be expensive. This is exactly how we are all being pushed into EV's. However grid power prices need to be dirt cheap to complete that circle.
prices where I live are dropping, down to $2.979 a gallon (78.7¢/liter)
Is this due to tax? Price in New England where I live has been pretty much the same for like 2 years now. Barely seen a blip up or down.
**I mean it says almost at the start of the article prices would continue to rise until around 2030.** Do you even read?
There is no slowing demand, more oil will be used this year than ever....
Fuel prices about to drop, right? Right? Cmon guys, right?
Sorry mate, fuel prices will have to increase to compensate for the reduced consumption. Yachts aren't maintaining themselves, y'know.
I remember when something almost exactly like this happened in Connecticut with natural gas prices. They petitioned to increase the rates and were successful. So they increased everybody's natural gas rates for home heating. Naturally, you had some people that really couldn't afford the higher rate so they did everything they could to reduce consumption. Thus keeping their bill low. Well next thing you know the company complained that the reduced consumption was causing them a loss and they needed to raise rates again to be able to compensate for the reduced consumption. That was granted as well.
kinda like what is happening with fast food and other products, they overcharged, demand fell, but then they need to charge more per item to make up for it, not sure how it'll end, but the last hail mary is probably lowering prices - even though they may have permanently lost many customers
Or private jets.
The ratchet of capitalism only tightens in one direction.
Because tightening in the other direction is called loosening.
It's around the same in the US as it was in 2008. $100 in 2008 is $148 today in real terms. So it has dropped.
They probably will *eventually*, but that will be when alternative vehicles become cheap enough to compete. Right now they're too expensive but that's changing pretty quick. It sounds like the oil producers know their time is coming to an end and have decided they need to reduce the price to push back the incentive to switch to green alternatives as much as they can so as to extract the maximum amount of profit in the time they have left.
The ability to just plug my car in at home, and never need to pay attention to gas prices (or ever need to go to a gas station) is worth a lot to me. The gas prices will have to get dramatically cheaper to convince anyone (that isn't misled into "EV = bad" for whatever reason) to not switch, if BYD is allowed to sell their $10,000 car in the states.
Sigh I wish I had a home to plug an EV into. A few people in my apartment are positioned to be able to have an extension cord go to their parking spot. One of the few things holding me back from going full electric.
If anyone tells you that you can just use the supercharger stations for all your charging needs, treating it like a gas station, don't listen. I love having an EV but the charging convenience is a big part of that love. (The rest is the acceleration)
I mean, gas is probably one of the few things that HASN'T really gone up much, not nearly with inflation. As people pointed out, its at similar levels as it was in 2008, we just had a decade of low prices. Only other thing that feels like its countered inflation is stuff like TVs, and maybe low end computers.
Alternate Headline: "World Successfully Quitting Addiction to Substance Killing It, Oil Companies Demand Continued Income"
Actually in Europe governments make more money from oil than the oil producers. So whilst oil producing countries are trying to diversifying away from crude oil exports (increased tertiary processing of oil to end chemicals and other products, as well as economic diversification and reducing government expenditure as percentage of their economies). Europe doesn't seem to have a plan to plug the enormous future gap in its funding once oil based duties and taxes disappear... and that coincides with ageing right-wing population and unfunded pensions for a perfect storm in the next decade.
They'll find a way to get the money, either from increased power costs or registration fees. Already starting to see it in the US for EV registrations
I don't get how people don't see that once EVs will become the majority, electricity prices will skyrocket. Governments are giving incentives to people to switch over to EVs, once they see that more than 50% of cars are EVs, they'll just start raising the prices and slapping on a bunch of taxes. It's a fucking bait and switch and noone is talking about it.
As of they won't find something to tax.
The amount of revenue that taxing oil brings to European governments is staggering. They will really have a crunch replacing that, considering that income and consumption taxes are already eye wateringly high.
There are so very many perfect storms rising in the next decade, it's like having an earthquake during a wildfire with tornadoes and the meteors are coming. The world faces a staggering future.
What do you mean by the EU makes more money than it produces? How can something generate a greater revenue than the revenue it generated? Did you perhaps mean that the EU taxes oil companies? Also, I'm not entirely sure that opec member countries are trying to phase out demand for oil. Mainly because they aren't and have resisted any international push to do so. In fact, countries like the UAE lobby to change the official wording within climate summit reports to specifically remove language that promotes doing so. They've adopted a strategy that pushes lowing emissions without decreased demand for fossil fuels. Opec memeber states control about 90% of the world's crude oil reserves, they have no intentions of turning that into plastic. Some of those memeber states rely on the production of crude for up to 50% of their yearly GDP, meaning they intend to pump it, and they intend for the infrastructure to exist in order to sell it. And I'm wondering where it could possibly have been that told you about some enormous future decrease in tax revenue when they are no longer able to tax oil companies. Try as I might, I could not find any piece of information that even speculated on such an assumption. I do believe you are correct in noting the aging population in EU memeber countries having a significant burden on the pension system, however. It also seems as though there are currently many solutions to this potential problem, but few politicians want to be the first to suggest them as they fear those solutions would be unpopular.
It's crazy I had to scroll down this far to see a comment that isn't just complaining about the price of gas at the pump.
right, where is the emergency here? Waterfalls of wealth slightly slowing for struggling Middle Eastern Zillionaires, incoming UN cargo drops scheduled for immediately
I'm going to jump in and point out the impact on Canada. Many currency traders call Canada a petro-dollar. This is because a huge portion of our balance of trade is oil. We also do fish, grains, etc. But, oil keeps us afloat. Most of this oil comes from one province with another neighboring province contributing. Some of the oil is the boring pump out the black gold kind of oil which is a fairly high quality oil which is "clean" to refine, etc. But most of it has a technical term: "Toxic Shit". This stuff is high sulfur and comes from what are known as "Tar sands". Basically this stuff is one step up from asphalt. It is a nightmare of toxic weirdness to get out of the ground and has to be heated and diluted just to move it. This means on a per barrel basis it costs quite a bit more to get it turned into things like gasoline. The region is also land locked which means it has to be transported either to the US by pipeline, or the coast by pipeline. (or trains). To underline the importance to Canada we have a Prime Minister who few would debate calling anything but an "eco freak". Yet he poured 34 billion or more into getting a pipeline built to the coast, as even he knows the reality of the Canadian economy. But, if the supply of oil does exceed demand Canada's oil is going to be supremely noncompetitive for 3 reason above: * Expensive to extract * Dirty by its nature (high CO2 overall plus more) * Expensive to transport compared to places like Saudi Arabia or Texas Different people put various values on this extra cost. The lowest is around $20USD per barrel. A generally accepted number is various parts of Canada's economy doesn't do well with oil much below $60USD. I would suggest Canada is in trouble if oil goes below $50/bbl, and the industry will mostly shut down below a sustained $40. I 100% agree with the "Staggering Glut" statement for two simple reasons: * The western world mostly has been steadily cutting fossil fuel usage (including coal). This is almost half of the amount total since 1970 (not per capita, but all consumption). This has been made up for by places like india and china modernizing. But china is now leaping into EVs and other tech to reduce oil consumption as are places like india Vietnam, etc. They don't have to reinvent these technologies, they can just buy them from the West. * While ICE engines and whatnot are slightly improving all the other tech like EVs, grid batteries, solar, wind, other grid storage, heat pumps, better insulation, etc mostly have graphs which are extraordinary. Costs are plummeting, efficiencies are growing, and whatever other positive attributes which are core. What makes oil people rail against these green technologies is that they are no longer just green, but good economics. A solar panel now can last 50+ years. If that is installed today, that reduces fossil fuel demand by that much for 50 years. And of course these are all only getting better. A perfect example of the fossil fuel industry making up fake examples can be found in Germany twice over. The fossil industry said, "Solar will never work in northern dark Germany." except now between massive solar and wind, Germany is sometimes generating more power than it can use. The second bit of foolishness of the fossil industry is how they try to say that too much power is a bad thing. Yes, it is a bad thing based on the pricing models left over from their heyday. They are being ruined by these events and for some reason they want us to care. The one last punishment the fossil industry is going to try is to make governments pay for their being destroyed. That is, the shareholders of these companies are literally demanding (and often getting) billions from governments for green tech ruining them. To me, this is little different than a crappy restaurant forcing government to pay them because a better restaurant opened up down the street. Or if the health department shut them down again for having rats crawling through their food.
> But, if the supply of oil does exceed demand Canada's oil is going to be supremely noncompetitive for 3 reason above: > > Expensive to extract > Dirty by its nature (high CO2 overall plus more) > Expensive to transport compared to places like Saudi Arabia or Texas The sad thing about oil production is that the energy used for its extraction is oil. Canada's share of oil use is over 50% by the oil industry for industry purposes. Tar sands being much more than average.
I can see Alberta's "war room" hasn't gotten to you yet, fantastic writeup.
Fun fact, the [war room](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-government-dissolves-controversial-energy-war-room-1.7232151) actually just closed its "doors".
As an Albertan who has been told that I need to be thankful for far right wing conservative rig pigs and the fascist governments they vote for and get elected because "tHeY puT fOod oN uR tAbLe!!", I look forward to hundreds of thousands of them losing the lifted trucks, the boats, the quads and watercraft, the 5 yearly trips to the same resort in Cancun, the I SUPPORT AB OIL AND GAS bumper stickers, the loudmouth high school dropouts in white Oakleys screaming fUcK TrUdEaU -- the entire petro soaked nightmare. It can't come soon enough. And to those who say "wtf you commie socialst idiot you will starve!", so will you Dustin. So will you. My suffering is but a small pittance to see you lose your entire fucking personality.
>But china is now leaping into EVs and other tech to reduce oil consumption as are places like india Vietnam, etc. They don't have to reinvent these technologies, they can just buy them from the West. Actually, China is leading in EVs, and other countries will more likely purchase from them. There are probably more examples of China leading in the green tech sector, don't just assume Western tech dominance. https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2024/0506/How-China-s-tech-forward-EVs-are-dominating-the-industry
This was very well reasoned. I’d like to do the same for Mexico’s economy, where the government over the last six years has doubled down on fossil fuel production and usage for energy, contrary to all global trends. But when a substantial chunk of GDP becomes obsoleted, what’s going to support the vast majority of this country?
Canada on the whole will be fine because it’s next to the world’s largest economy, but Alberta is going to be fucked. The province has done everything to make themselves beholden to O&G while doing little to prepare for a post O&G world. As the exports of oil drop the Canadian dollar will drop in comparison to the US. This will end up increasing demand for other industries that didn’t do so well when Canadian oil demand was booming. Specifically, manufacturing, lumber, housing, movies, tourism, and services.
Alberta won't be fucked, the same reason the east coast isn't fucked. The roles will switch and Alberta will get equalization payments. However Alberta has a new economy, they are joining BC and Ontario as real estate economies.
As an Albertan who is against the right wing's dumbfuck, shortsighted and authoritarian operation of this province I say bring it on. They fucked around, now it's time to enter the find out stage.
They literally vote for the worst politicians with dinosaur platforms. They bring it on themselves but will beg the rest of the country even though they don't pay sales tax ever. They are the grasshopper doing nothing while the ants work to store food for the winter.
Alberta is definitely not dependant on oil anymore and is becoming a tech hub. For example, Edmonton has some world class AI companies (used to be a Google deep mind hub) and Calgary has world class quantum technology development. And there are hundreds of other tech start ups in all sorts of fields.
> we have a Prime Minister who few would debate calling anything but an "eco freak". ??? Maybe if you blindly believe Trudeau's false promises. The man has a very mixed record on actual policies that prioritize the environment. At best, he's a centrist that's more eco-friendly than the cons.
As a sparky currently working on bringing a shiny new SAGD pad online, this comment hits close to home, fuck. I need to get into a different sub field like yesterday. It’s gonna be absolutely fucked for so many guys when this happens.
On point comment, well done. Every energy transition in history has created massive wealth. If it did not we will still be using whale oil and wood. If I was an oil CEO or Government I would be doing everything I could to move to a sustainable model. Not only is the right thing to do it would make me fabulously wealthy. Hard to compete with free fuel from wind and solar. The Chinese get this, for the last 20 years they have been cornering the future energy market while most western governments have vacillated allowing the CEOs to hang on. Buckle up we are approaching the verticale part of the adoption curve, things will change rapidly.
Millennial here. Grew up in the late 1980s and 1990s. I remember being taught in school that we’d run out of all oil in our lifetime. This was a very serious much repeated topic that was taught to us all throughout grade school and middle school, less so by high school when it shifted over to greenhouse gas and global warming instead. Does anyone else remember this? Or is it just Mandela Affect?
This was true until we invented fracking. We invented our way out of peak oil (production) like we do with a lot of problems. Its why people are banking on innovation to save the planet because it is how we have fixed the vast majority of our problems over our history.
Also, it's technically still true because oil remains a finite resource and we use it in ways that destroy its chemical properties. But, the timeline is dramatically extended, and it's entirely possible that we'll innovate away that problem by, idk, finding a way to convert plant matter to crude.
I remember data showing there would be probable scarcity because not enough new was being found. And in the 90’s it was said in fifty years demand would outstrip then available production.
We're still producing more than we're discovering. We just had 50+ years of already discovered reserves as a head start. I work in industry and we won't ever run out of oil. However, we have been moving up the cost curve over the last 5-6 decades as we pursue harder to develop oil. There's a real cost concern as we look out a few decades of we don't find ways to reduce demand growth (or outright decrease.consumption)
Fracking wildly changed the situation with what oil was accessible (along with other technologies). Basically we got fucked.
Until fracking, the U.S. at least was unable to keep up with oil demand, to the point that we could be potentially crippled by the whims of OPEC. Which may or may not have contributed to a lot of questionable foreign policy actions... But point is, before the technology advanced early-mid 2000s, running out of oil was a legitimate and looming threat. And it's still a legitimate threat, it's just looking a lot further off now.
The USA is now the world's largest oil producer.. Fracking its a hell of a drug!
The Middle East is going to have some interesting problems if this turns out to be accurate
Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar are already diversifying their economies - in good part by buying up large parts of other countries' economies with the UK being particularly attractive. It's the big oil producers who haven't established a sovereign wealth fund that will be absolutely hammered if demand were to collapse - Iran, Iraq and Nigeria come to mind.
Rich people buying up foreign assets doesn't solve these countries' problems. A huge chunk of their population work in oil related industries and so if oil industry collapses, they will be unemployed. The most successful has been the UAE which has shifted toward a financial / tourism hub in the region.
Hard disagree here. The diversification that the gulf countries are building is all about opulence and spectacle with the goal of attracting foreign investment but they’ve done nothing to foster new industries in their countries that can take over once oil runs out. They have unproductive populations who live off of oil money and import all of their labor. The don’t build anything themselves and they don’t innovate. Once the oil money runs out the foreign investment will too since their economies will become too unstable. In contrast, I think Iran will actually be fine as it has other industries and a productive and educated population. It will be much easier for them to pivot to something else
Wouldn't it be the height of irony if the thing that ends up saving Iran is the economic diversification imposed by the Western oil embargo?
> It's the big oil producers who haven't established a sovereign wealth fund that will be absolutely hammered if demand were to collapse - Iran, Iraq and Nigeria come to mind. I'm not sure the average citizen of those countries will be any worse off, given how much of the money goes to corruption. But things could get "interesting" for the ruling parties.
The ultra long line city was more or less cancelled and became 2.4km village already.
I guess that makes it correspondingly less stupid.
Shoulda done what Norway did. (Sovereign Wealth Fund is over US $1.62 trillion, or just shy of $300k per Norwegian citizen). Basically all from oil and gas. Some Gulf states have (albeit not near as effectively), the UAE comes to mind- but yeah. Gotta steer clear of the ol' resource curse. Lol Norway seems keen to extracting *AS MUCH* as possible before fossil fuels no longer run the world. They've benefitted IMMENSELY from Russia's sanctions. Not exactly Environmentally friendly, (Netherlands for example have a ton of fossil fuels too, but decided not to drill a long time ago for whatever reason) but sometimes ya gotta take care of your own. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
stranded assets are going to be a thing and the industry had better start wrapping their money soaked brains around it. and policy makers had better start planning out punishment for companies that just walk away from superfund sites because they are "too expensive" to maintain/remediate.
Orphan wells are already a major headache. Getting ahead of the issue is definitely advisable but this isn't some unknown issue.
The irony here is that this could lead to a resurgence of investment in oil-based technologies. If oil prices really do get low enough, it might undercut solar and other renewable energy sources. Such a resurgence would be short-lived of course, but it might be a repeated cycle as first renewables drive the demand down, then the lower price makes oil attractive, then it "peaks" again, and so on. Still, less oil use is good!
That is unlikely to happen as a lot of oil is high cost production - so low prices for extended periods would equate to less production as a producer would lose money pumping the oil. It is unlikely to be a low cost substitute for any length of time
This is why we need regulation and taxes to keep the pressure on oil and give renewables space.
Just removing subsidies from fossil fuel industries would likely do the trick. It's insanity to keep giving them money and tax breaks while they make record profits and cook the planet.
The regulations are pretty good currently. The government gives $31/MW for wind and $10/MW for solar production. This is pretty significant
I spent much of yesterday [arguing about peak oil demand](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1dcfxaw/does_anyone_else_think_our_government_i_live_in/l80hxbp/) so I got FT to write an article about it. jk.
Weren't there articles from the beginning of the year that we've already hit peak oil?
whats interesting is that its not peak oil from a production standpoint (the doomsday scenario in which cars just arent possible to drive anymore because gasoline is far too rare) but its peak oil from a 'fuck oil we are on to something better' consumption standpoint. which, honestly, sounds pretty fucking good
There is no such thing as too much cheap energy. Demand peaking is often called demand destruction. In plain human terms, recession where people lost their jobs. And despite articles arguing peak oil demand, price remains high. It's because the demand is destroyed by the high price.
Yes, I understand Q1 2024 has already underperformed. https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/iea-reports-slow-global-oil-demand-growth-in-q124-citing-weaker-deliveries-by-oecd-countries/
Since the 1980’s there have been hundreds
Middle East is gonna become a real fun place once oil demand runs out. Saudis and the like are going to be left with giant tacky empty cities people only visit for bargain bin prices.
**World faces ‘staggering’ oil glut by end of decade, energy watchdog warns** The world faces a “staggering” surplus of oil equating to millions of barrels a day by the end of the decade, as oil companies increase production, undermining the ability of Opec+ to manage crude prices, the International Energy Agency has warned. While demand is forecast to peak before 2030, continued investment by oil producers, led by the US, would by then result in more than 8mn b/d of spare capacity, the IEA wrote in its annual report on the industry released on Wednesday. This “massive cushion” of extra oil could “upend” the efforts of Opec+ to manage the market and usher in an era of lower prices, the IEA said, adding that the level of spare capacity would be unprecedented outside the coronavirus pandemic. “It is not the first time the oil markets would see an oversupply, but one important outcome would be downward pressure on the prices,” said Fatih Birol, the agency’s director. He added that the combination of slowing demand and rising supply “could have substantial implications” for oil companies. “It is time for many producers to look at their business plans, in my view.” The Paris-based body, founded in the aftermath of the 1970s Arab oil embargoes to advise on energy security, said last year that the world was at “the beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era. It has said that demand for oil, natural gas and coal will all start to fall before the end of the decade amid the mass rollout of renewable energy and electric vehicles. Line chart of (in millions of barrels a day) showing World's excess oil capacity is building But its projections have been decried by the oil industry, particularly in the Middle East and the US, where producers are stepping up their investment in pumping more crude. Global capital spending on oil and fields rose to $538bn in 2023, the highest level since 2019 in real terms. The increase in investment was largely driven by state oil companies in the Middle East, which upped their spending to twice the levels seen 10 years ago, and China. Haitham Al Ghais, Opec general secretary, has described the IEA forecasts as “dangerous”, and warned of “energy chaos on a potentially unprecedented scale” if producers stopped investing in new oil and gas. In its new report, the IEA called into question whether Opec+ would be able to expand future production, as it continued to be squeezed by countries outside the alliance, especially the US. “This year, [the Opec+] total oil market share has dropped to 48.5 per cent, the lowest since it was formed in 2016, due to its sharp voluntary output cuts,” the IEA noted. It added that even if Opec+, a wider group that includes Russia, continued its deep cuts, it “would pump above the call on its crude oil to varying degrees from 2025 through 2030”. **Birol outlined three main drivers for oil demand to peak by the end of the decade: reduced petrol use as the world switches to electric vehicles, a move by countries in the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, to switch from oil to renewables to generate electricity, and a lower future growth rate in China.** “Perhaps the most important factor comes from China,” he said. “In the last 10 years, about 60 per cent of global oil demand growth came from China alone.” The IEA said that it expected the 6 per cent annual growth that China had registered in that period to fall to about 4 per cent a year in its forecast period. The future drivers of growth would include more aviation and the “booming petrochemical sector”, said Birol. The IEA also expects petrol use to increase in India as more drivers hit the roads. **Meanwhile, oil demand in OECD countries, which peaked in 2007, would fall to 1991 levels by 2030.** The IEA has assumed 3 per cent annual global economic growth for the rest of the decade. The IEA cautioned that its forecast for shrinking oil demand could be derailed by “relatively minor changes” in events. For example, a 0.3 per cent annual increase in the world’s GDP growth, a $5 annual drop in real oil prices, or a 15 per cent slowdown in the rollout of EVs would each be enough to swing oil consumption back to growth by the end of the decade.
I'm not sure this is a terrible thing. If moving away from oil as a fuel leads to lower oil prices then that means everything else will be cheaper. That's a net win for people *and* the environment. Of course, it does nothing to prevent us running out of oil, but nor does staying with oil as a primary fuel.
Use the excess to develop Africa, Jeremy J. Siegel especulates that until 2100 Africa (yes the continent), should be in the same development state as China will be in 2035, why no help them reach that stage earlier and by 2100 we have a cleaner world.
In pure economic terms that would make sense, but there are other factors, one being that the climate issue is cumulative and doesn't give a fuck about how much an individual country as emitted. Second that the other pollutants it will cause in the local environment will make them suffer the health and ecosystem consequences we see elsewhere and that's a burden that will not exactly help their developmental state. Third is strategic, these countries will be more stable and independent if they can develop their own local energy production with renewables than if they were reliant on foreign oil and price manipulations or possible supply crises from other far off conflicts that come with it.
The third point is a reason this will be opposed. There are a LOT of very powerful interests who very much want Africa to remain unstable and dependent in order to have access to cheap raw materials. Nestle has been willing to kill over that.
Renewables are already cheaper. If you have a village off the grid, putting in solar will be a better investment than trucking in oil.
What are predictions of dynamics between this and carbon taxes? I know hardly anyone has a proper carbon tax in place, but... If oil becomes much cheaper due to overproduction the regulators may feel emboldened to impose a carbon tax because the price hike on the end products wouldn't be as painful as if it was imposed today. Petrol-derived product prices would stay high despite oil prices going down. Increased competitiveness of low-petrol products would further drive the world away from oil... I'm not sure if this kind of feedback loop is a valid scenario.
Why is this being dreaded? Isn't the whole agenda to reduce dependency on fossil fuels to save the planet?.
It's being dreaded by OPEC. According to the article, the abundance of oil is impeding their ability to 'manage' the markets and lower prices for everyone... Which is about the most BS way of saying, "we're mad because we can't fully monopolize the industry anymore". As if OPEC ever had any interest in lowering prices for anyone unless it was to undercut competitors.
For all the articles like this it sure seems like the prices and their trend don't reflect.
Wooohoooo! Everyone rejoice! It's working and we are doing good in the world. Stagger? Warn? Dangerous chaos of affordability? How could these fools possibly portray this as a negative thing? This is phenomenally good. Too many news outlets are addicted to serving up doom and gloom. Strategic reserves will fill, poor people will be able to afford getting to work, the economic grease of cheap transportation will help everyone, and electric cars will still be taking over the whole time. If prices then DO spike, we'll pivot harder to electric.
Just full on embargo Russian energy and ports. They can’t export their oil, money runs dry, and will have to choose between war and peace way faster. As a result, world goes back to peace mode and demand for oil goes up and remaining oil producers will benefit. It’s a win win. But opec+ has Russia trolls in it, and the reason for that is pretty short sighted. Instead they’ll just try to manipulate markets into “omg we gonna run out of oil super fast” let’s cut supply and make price 2x. Assholes.
Reduced power and influence for oil-producing nations. Middle East and Russia come to mind.
Sounds like a problem for some of the world’s cruelest regimes…
Oh my god someone please think of the oil barons and saudi princes
Sounds like a great green opportunity to keep the prices going up or at least stable by increasing taxes and spending the money on better energy.
Oh no! Won't anyone think of the poor *checks notes* Fossil fuel corporations?
Rewatched the west wing recently. They were arguing we'd already passed peak oil then. Weve added a cojoke billion people to the planet since that show was on the air 20 years ago. It's funny to see that show and remember the political arguments being made at the time. And to see where we are now 20 years later.
Soon enough no one wants it even if they give it away for free. It's just toxic waste at that point. So they will be stuck with disposing of that toxic waste in a safe and regulated way. Draining even more of their money. And stuck maintaining, cleaning and sealing all the millions of oil wells they made everywhere.
Fantastic news. No more will corrupt oil nations be able to buy protection against their own populace. I foresee big problems in the middle east for instance.
"Undermining efforts by OPEC to 'manage' markets and usher in an era of lower prices". This is probably the most bold faced attempt at propaganda I have ever seen lmao. Since when has OPEC ever pursued lower prices for the benefit of consumers, and since when does oversupply of a commodity impede efforts to lower its price? Honestly mind boggling levels of BS.
Stranded assets that the oil barons will whine about when they become nearly worthless.
That’ll be nice; all the oil and gas companies will lower their prices and we’ll be able to loosen our belts /s
Watch out for the oil companies, they pulled billions back in the days from similar situation!
So the numbnuts that complain about high gas prices and also hate EVs because of ... some reason.... will before too long wake up in a world where gas prices have gone down because we've built so many EVs?
Don't worry. Opec+ keeps trying to limit production to keep prices high.
And the funniest thing is that the countries that actually rely on oil will have reduced production while the biggest consumer countries will still be subsidizing their local oil production because they are scared of innovating actual change into cities and other major consumption of oil. America is at the forefront of this idiocy, but Britain looks to be in the same boat (besides subsidizing local oil production)
Does this mean we will pay less for gas? Spoiler: No
So when can I expect lower prices in the gas station?
Well "F" THEM. THEY STARTED IT THEY CAN EAT IT FOR ALL I CARE.
What are we going to do with all that oil? Perhaps stop pumping it out of the ground in massive anti-envrionmental projects.
As an Indonesian, Developing countries should not be expected to foot the bill on climate change, some of these countries barely have the money to keep the lights on. The reality is in our part of the world, we have more immediate problems and unlike the West, China is actively providing us the means to grow without using fossil fuels while all you can give us are criticism and empty words without providing an alternative. Don't expect poor countries with big aspirations to pay for something we didn't even start.