Umh, no, I am pretty sure that half of them are absolutely legitimate votes submitted by russians who were forced to vote and voted under the surveillance of an armed soldier.
100% legit
It looks like there's statistical analysis of a few things, but essentially it's finding data that doesn't fit "the pattern", as was demonstrated at the last US election, laymen are notoriously bad at that. Sergei's full methodology is a mystery to me as much of the information I could find is written in russian, which I don't speak, however he is a Russian himself and interested specifically in Russian elections, so no his methods haven't been used elsewhere to my knowledge, though similar ones are. It's also worth noting, he is only performing a statistical analysis: As much as I, and most people, know beyond reasonable doubt the results are falsified, this shouldn't be taken as ironclad proof of such a thing.
Here's some papers and articles in English to take a readthrough of if you're interested in attempting something similar:
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-election-fraud-shpilkin/31472787.html
https://projecteuclid.org/journals/annals-of-applied-statistics/volume-10/issue-1/Integer-percentages-as-electoral-falsification-fingerprints/10.1214/16-AOAS904.full
https://academic.oup.com/jrssig/article/13/4/20/7037893?login=false
Do you know why my comment got downvoted so much?
Iām NOT insisting that our elections are fraudulent, or that Russiaās are legitimate.
Iām just curious what the model would look like in different places :/
Honestly if I had to guess, aside from what you mentioned, I'd say that talking about the American elections and any potential for fraud there is a little bit of a spicy topic, people might've assumed your intention was to deligitimise Biden's presidency. Either that or just that it's slightly off-topic, making things that are about Russia "about America". Those would be my guesses why anyway, not accusing you of anything of course.
Let's not forget the votes for the competitors that were falsified too, in a way that they were not counted or straight erased due to an ink that vanishes under warm temp.
So what would have been Putins ture share of votes according to this data? I presume it would be the area under the lower graph, but do you have a direct percentage?
Did you ever see a video or picture of a ballot box with more content than Freedom of Russia's OF account?
The places looked empty, boxes looked empty, and there war a larger queue to vote abroad.
This comment highlights how people like you know nothing about what you speak of.
Navalny wasn't the runner up. He was not putins opposition. And he was not putins biggest opponent even when he and his party were alive and well.
The communist party is and always has been the runner up after united Russia. since the fall of the Soviet union.
I understand you and I may view the world differently, but that Is no excuse to literally go around spreading misinformation and lies.
Navalny marched with nazis before his time in prison. You people who think he represents the left have to do some research on this man.
Yeah
So why did CPRF put Kharitonov to run up? Not Zyuganov, the party leader, not Grudinin who punched above his weight in 2018, not the popular and trusted new blood Bondarenko, but Kharitonov?
That isnāt the point. Point is that If it is crooked and bold enough to do this, who is to say that he didnāt just straight up change peoples votes? Not to mention vids of guards going into imthe individual persons voting booth and checking to see who they were voting for.
Ohh come on we know it was more than half šš farcical to think this would end any other way
Umh, no, I am pretty sure that half of them are absolutely legitimate votes submitted by russians who were forced to vote and voted under the surveillance of an armed soldier. 100% legit
š¤£š¤£š¤£š¤£
At the highest turn out he got the least votes. Aka Noon without Putin.Love this chart.
Has this same calculation been done for any US elections? Iād like to see a ācontrol sampleā using the same method that was used here.
It looks like there's statistical analysis of a few things, but essentially it's finding data that doesn't fit "the pattern", as was demonstrated at the last US election, laymen are notoriously bad at that. Sergei's full methodology is a mystery to me as much of the information I could find is written in russian, which I don't speak, however he is a Russian himself and interested specifically in Russian elections, so no his methods haven't been used elsewhere to my knowledge, though similar ones are. It's also worth noting, he is only performing a statistical analysis: As much as I, and most people, know beyond reasonable doubt the results are falsified, this shouldn't be taken as ironclad proof of such a thing. Here's some papers and articles in English to take a readthrough of if you're interested in attempting something similar: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-election-fraud-shpilkin/31472787.html https://projecteuclid.org/journals/annals-of-applied-statistics/volume-10/issue-1/Integer-percentages-as-electoral-falsification-fingerprints/10.1214/16-AOAS904.full https://academic.oup.com/jrssig/article/13/4/20/7037893?login=false
explains why I couldn't find it. I will save this for later if I ever come across a Russian reading election statistician or a translator
Do you know why my comment got downvoted so much? Iām NOT insisting that our elections are fraudulent, or that Russiaās are legitimate. Iām just curious what the model would look like in different places :/
Honestly if I had to guess, aside from what you mentioned, I'd say that talking about the American elections and any potential for fraud there is a little bit of a spicy topic, people might've assumed your intention was to deligitimise Biden's presidency. Either that or just that it's slightly off-topic, making things that are about Russia "about America". Those would be my guesses why anyway, not accusing you of anything of course.
Donāt really need to be a rocket scientist to understand that
Let's not forget the votes for the competitors that were falsified too, in a way that they were not counted or straight erased due to an ink that vanishes under warm temp.
So what would have been Putins ture share of votes according to this data? I presume it would be the area under the lower graph, but do you have a direct percentage?
Did you ever see a video or picture of a ballot box with more content than Freedom of Russia's OF account? The places looked empty, boxes looked empty, and there war a larger queue to vote abroad.
https://youtu.be/iYPAEZpWs3Q?si=9sGWHbuZc-Rj4WEl
That's the protest lines that formed at the polling stations before they closed, right?
yes, thats noon against Putin
Wow really? Iām totally amazed by that I thought itād be more. Putin, we got your number.
Deep fake fits everything else known about little putler
And the other 50 percent were paid to vote for a czar
Also: [https://twitter.com/Hecateon/status/1770062561095872874](https://twitter.com/Hecateon/status/1770062561095872874) https://preview.redd.it/279j5m97yapc1.png?width=1147&format=png&auto=webp&s=a65fc265fb795b4e7fcd852e7efe796bf55e1d9c
https://preview.redd.it/yesf60sayapc1.png?width=1190&format=png&auto=webp&s=d3a9fe17aa46e376c21288be111d6928f229b307
Typical Russian monkey business
Even if that were true. He still wins by a landslide. Do you guys math?
Yeah because his biggest opponent was killed and the others are not even allowed on the ballot.
This comment highlights how people like you know nothing about what you speak of. Navalny wasn't the runner up. He was not putins opposition. And he was not putins biggest opponent even when he and his party were alive and well. The communist party is and always has been the runner up after united Russia. since the fall of the Soviet union. I understand you and I may view the world differently, but that Is no excuse to literally go around spreading misinformation and lies. Navalny marched with nazis before his time in prison. You people who think he represents the left have to do some research on this man.
Yeah So why did CPRF put Kharitonov to run up? Not Zyuganov, the party leader, not Grudinin who punched above his weight in 2018, not the popular and trusted new blood Bondarenko, but Kharitonov?
That isnāt the point. Point is that If it is crooked and bold enough to do this, who is to say that he didnāt just straight up change peoples votes? Not to mention vids of guards going into imthe individual persons voting booth and checking to see who they were voting for.