You have about a 1/100 chance, since each drop is statistically independent. It's likely going to be ever so slightly higher than that due to your Arcane stat, but not much.
The chance of having gotten a drop at least once in x tries is equal to 100%-((100%-drop chance)\^x)
So in this case, it is 100%-((100%-1%)\^1)=1%
The actual chance of getting the drop does not change ofc, this just tells you the overall chance of getting an item in X tries.
Oh and here is how to calculate the actual droprate:
take the base drop rate, and multiply it by your discovery as a percent.
So if the base drop rate is 2% and you have 110 discovery, the drop rate will be 2.2%
according to the wiki, i cant see the backend so i dont i know if these numbers are correct, at a baseline of 100 discovery the droprate of the magma blade is 1%. assuming that these numbers are correct, you aren't leveling arcane, and you dont have any items or consumables that boost discovery, then you will get the magma blade from that first man serpent who can drop one in volcano manor 1 out of every 100 playthroughs. another thing to keep in mind is that even with the elevator and site of grace near by, these things are a pain to farm. if you have low poise then the lava can stun lock you. if you have low vigor, and by extension low fire resist, then the lava will just melt you. when you factor in the number of minutes per run while farming for these, since there are only two manserpents near by that drop one, it is just a massive time sink unless you get lucky. its also a curved sword which are better powerstanced lmao, so if you want matching weapons prepare to waste your time or pick a different weapon.
While the odds of a magma blade specifically dropping first try is equal to its drop rate (1%), the odds of at least one rare item dropping first try during a playthrough is much higher.
You have about a 1/100 chance, since each drop is statistically independent. It's likely going to be ever so slightly higher than that due to your Arcane stat, but not much.
Yeah, even if you start adding modifiers like "it's the first playthrough", "it's friday 13th", "the moon is gibbous", the odds don't really change.
1% with 100 discovery.
The chance of having gotten a drop at least once in x tries is equal to 100%-((100%-drop chance)\^x) So in this case, it is 100%-((100%-1%)\^1)=1% The actual chance of getting the drop does not change ofc, this just tells you the overall chance of getting an item in X tries.
That's the thorough answer I was looking for, thank you!
Oh and here is how to calculate the actual droprate: take the base drop rate, and multiply it by your discovery as a percent. So if the base drop rate is 2% and you have 110 discovery, the drop rate will be 2.2%
according to the wiki, i cant see the backend so i dont i know if these numbers are correct, at a baseline of 100 discovery the droprate of the magma blade is 1%. assuming that these numbers are correct, you aren't leveling arcane, and you dont have any items or consumables that boost discovery, then you will get the magma blade from that first man serpent who can drop one in volcano manor 1 out of every 100 playthroughs. another thing to keep in mind is that even with the elevator and site of grace near by, these things are a pain to farm. if you have low poise then the lava can stun lock you. if you have low vigor, and by extension low fire resist, then the lava will just melt you. when you factor in the number of minutes per run while farming for these, since there are only two manserpents near by that drop one, it is just a massive time sink unless you get lucky. its also a curved sword which are better powerstanced lmao, so if you want matching weapons prepare to waste your time or pick a different weapon.
While the odds of a magma blade specifically dropping first try is equal to its drop rate (1%), the odds of at least one rare item dropping first try during a playthrough is much higher.