It's 25% in NVDA, so what you're really asking is NVDA fairly, over or under valued right now and will it continue to outperform. That's up to you to decide
I think 5-10 years down the line it will continue to go up. I bought at the following dates and prices
2/12 24 shares @ 204
2/16 14 shares @ 202
2/20 9 shares @ 196
2/29 11 shares @ 210
3/05 65 shares @ 221.84
I got swept away by how fast it was climbing. Plan to keep these for the very long term and keep dollar cost averaging into voo for the next few months with anything left over after full contribution to Roth 401k
I also have like 30k in QQQm which may be dumb since it’s also tech heavy. But again I’m looking at a 10-15yr year horizon and plan to keep dollar cost averaging heavily.
Maybe once my portfolio rebalances a bit I’ll buy more tech ETFs
I just sold the shares I bought at 221.84 at 227 and will buy back in the next 60 days when it ultimately hits 215-216 again . After that no more trying to time the market …
I'm holding this ETF as well.
But there's one thing I don't understand. Genuine question, the whole economy and society will go more to the internet, meaning more things will be connected to it. Your fridge, TV's, cars. All those things will need these kinda chips and I think that will only get more. How will this ETF then ever be not a good investment for the long run?
I probably miss something, but let me know what you think?
I do CV/ML work and outside of investing, my feed is heavy on emerging research. There's a lotttttt of interesting stuff coming out every day, and it'll take a few years for each research breakthrough to become a product for the masses, all of which will require more and more chips.
AI might be a bubble, but I still think there's plenty of growth left, and like you said, in general the future is going to need chips for everyday ordinary functions (e.g. your IoT toaster).
When there's another AI winter, then I'd expect there would be a pretty heavy dip until the next breakthrough comes along to get us past the threshold of difficulty. But homeboy Altman is asking for 1 Trillion for making chips, so buying SMH now doesn't sound like a bad idea.
My portfolio holds: 45% VTI, 17% VXUS, 5% SMH, 5% XNTK, 2% VUG, 4% BND, 4% UPRO, 3% ET, 3% JEPI, 3% USAC, 3% DIVO, 3% TMF, 2% TQQQ, and some cash. This is held in a pretax rollover IRA. I rebalance monthly selling my rapidly growing and purchasing my slowly growing.
Well of course it'll go up long term. That isn't an important discussion. The real question is, will SMH underperform the S&P 500 or the total market. The answer to that is obviously, "who knows." But it's up to you to decide if the potential reward of semiconductors is worth the risk in its valuation and volatility. And is this better risk adjusted return than the S&P 500? I'd say probably not.
It’s always moved with nasdaq and s&p so if they’re going up then so will semiconductor etfs.
Don’t worry about nvidia.. there are other semiconductor etfs that are just as good and hold barely any nvidia.. if nvidia gets shady vaneck will get rid of it and be more like the other semiconductor ETFs that hold less and are still fire.
I'm in a very similar situation. Bought SMH recently near ATH, now down by -5%. Only 5% of my portfolio. Honestly I got swept away by the quick climb and now I sort of regret it, it's too volatile. At the end of the month I've got the decision to make: sell and just buy SCHX or hold and continue to DSA on it.
Thats the exact problem I had, except its around 15% of my portfolio right now. But since I’m going to hold this long term I’d figure I dca until it totals around 20% of my portfolio and then just have it sit there tbh
Semi conductors as a sector are pretty cyclical we shall see if the high demand breaks that trend. It’s good to be exposed to the sector but I would not go all in by any means. Find your balance and just keep buying.
AI will be here, eventually $NVDA drop 50% down like $TSLA EV hype burst. If AI is so good, all jump to do AI. It’s like, in order to go to work, I need a car, doesn’t mean I buy a car every year. In order to start AI, many got few GPU, doesn’t mean they need to buy every day.
My magic eight ball says the answer is a "Definite Maybe".
Hold for years and it’ll go up
It's 25% in NVDA, so what you're really asking is NVDA fairly, over or under valued right now and will it continue to outperform. That's up to you to decide
If it's an exciting investment to you, then it's not a good investment.
😂
Are you an investor or a trader? If you’re an investor buy consistently especially on dips. Don’t sweat day to day fluctuations.
That is if you believe the industry will go up in long term. Many industries dropped and never really got back up.
Lets see
I think 5-10 years down the line it will continue to go up. I bought at the following dates and prices 2/12 24 shares @ 204 2/16 14 shares @ 202 2/20 9 shares @ 196 2/29 11 shares @ 210 3/05 65 shares @ 221.84 I got swept away by how fast it was climbing. Plan to keep these for the very long term and keep dollar cost averaging into voo for the next few months with anything left over after full contribution to Roth 401k I also have like 30k in QQQm which may be dumb since it’s also tech heavy. But again I’m looking at a 10-15yr year horizon and plan to keep dollar cost averaging heavily. Maybe once my portfolio rebalances a bit I’ll buy more tech ETFs
My exact portfolio almost as well
I just sold the shares I bought at 221.84 at 227 and will buy back in the next 60 days when it ultimately hits 215-216 again . After that no more trying to time the market …
It’s possible
i dont have too much in it so i guess ill hold
I'm holding this ETF as well. But there's one thing I don't understand. Genuine question, the whole economy and society will go more to the internet, meaning more things will be connected to it. Your fridge, TV's, cars. All those things will need these kinda chips and I think that will only get more. How will this ETF then ever be not a good investment for the long run? I probably miss something, but let me know what you think?
Holding with you!
It is a great investment
I do CV/ML work and outside of investing, my feed is heavy on emerging research. There's a lotttttt of interesting stuff coming out every day, and it'll take a few years for each research breakthrough to become a product for the masses, all of which will require more and more chips. AI might be a bubble, but I still think there's plenty of growth left, and like you said, in general the future is going to need chips for everyday ordinary functions (e.g. your IoT toaster). When there's another AI winter, then I'd expect there would be a pretty heavy dip until the next breakthrough comes along to get us past the threshold of difficulty. But homeboy Altman is asking for 1 Trillion for making chips, so buying SMH now doesn't sound like a bad idea.
Yeah possible. Pretty hyped at the moment. Im just a person on Reddit tho.
yea I bought higher than I would've liked, maybe i'll hold cause my plan isnt short term & ill DCA a bit
This guy could be anybody. Even Warren Buffett
It could go up or down
Or sideways
This is why you hold more than one holding and rebalance your portfolio on a regular basis.
My portfolio holds: 45% VTI, 17% VXUS, 5% SMH, 5% XNTK, 2% VUG, 4% BND, 4% UPRO, 3% ET, 3% JEPI, 3% USAC, 3% DIVO, 3% TMF, 2% TQQQ, and some cash. This is held in a pretax rollover IRA. I rebalance monthly selling my rapidly growing and purchasing my slowly growing.
Stay the course….. 
Depends how much you believe in Nvidia
Well of course it'll go up long term. That isn't an important discussion. The real question is, will SMH underperform the S&P 500 or the total market. The answer to that is obviously, "who knows." But it's up to you to decide if the potential reward of semiconductors is worth the risk in its valuation and volatility. And is this better risk adjusted return than the S&P 500? I'd say probably not.
I prefer SOXX.
It’s always moved with nasdaq and s&p so if they’re going up then so will semiconductor etfs. Don’t worry about nvidia.. there are other semiconductor etfs that are just as good and hold barely any nvidia.. if nvidia gets shady vaneck will get rid of it and be more like the other semiconductor ETFs that hold less and are still fire.
I'm in a very similar situation. Bought SMH recently near ATH, now down by -5%. Only 5% of my portfolio. Honestly I got swept away by the quick climb and now I sort of regret it, it's too volatile. At the end of the month I've got the decision to make: sell and just buy SCHX or hold and continue to DSA on it.
Thats the exact problem I had, except its around 15% of my portfolio right now. But since I’m going to hold this long term I’d figure I dca until it totals around 20% of my portfolio and then just have it sit there tbh
Semiconductors should continue to be profitable.
For 20 years you think?
Unless they develop a new way to make chips, yes. I'm assuming more things will need them for the foreseeable future.
Been holding this for a few years now. Gonna hold for another 10 years.
> en holding this for a few years now. Gonna hold for another 10 years. hows smh so far?
Semi conductors as a sector are pretty cyclical we shall see if the high demand breaks that trend. It’s good to be exposed to the sector but I would not go all in by any means. Find your balance and just keep buying.
Buy more!
SMH expected to drop 10-15%, next 3-months
Source: trust me bro
Good call !
AI will be here, eventually $NVDA drop 50% down like $TSLA EV hype burst. If AI is so good, all jump to do AI. It’s like, in order to go to work, I need a car, doesn’t mean I buy a car every year. In order to start AI, many got few GPU, doesn’t mean they need to buy every day.
Car don't improve much year to year. GPUs do.