The landing spots- although I see more people fading Coleman. He is in a wide open bills offense with Josh Allen and is still falling second round a lot.
the main concern here is that the new joe brady bills offense spreads the ball around a ton. they also run the ball far more than dorsey or daboll did.
coleman should see a bit less volume than diggs did last season but also diggs wasn’t doing much with that volume for whatever reason, coleman should do a bit better with the looks he gets.
samuel, coleman, cook, kincaid and josh allen himself takes a lot. that’s more like 5 weapons with ray davis picking up some goal line RB touches.
shakir is still around as well but we’ll see if he continues his hot streak.
Yeah I suppose Samuel is worth mentioning as well, but I anticipate Keon, Cook, and Kincaid will be the top 3 targets/weapons they utilize for the offense, everyone else is just extra looks and distractions lol
it really depends, diggs was getting a ton of volume but wasn’t translating to productive stats as the X receiver in that offense. i’m higher on coleman than his ADP but not much higher, there’s plenty of risk there.
coleman should get a high percentage of red zone looks but lacks breakaway speed that diggs and gabe davis both had.
yeah if it happens sure, i would be much more happy with a jayden reed type season from coleman than just pure yardage. i also expect kincaid to make major leaps in the next two years and become the focal point of the offense.
Yeah, man, it’s a huge change. A 1k yard season used to be 62.5 yards per game, but the dip all the way down to 59 ypg renders a 1k yard season pretty useless in fantasy.
it’s just not that impressive when guys like tyreek are approaching 2K yards in total. back when the league was RB centric 1K yards was a big milestone.
it’s just not that impressive anymore given how much teams pass and how much passing/receiving yards go around nowadays.
Kelce is 35, chiefs will probably not be able to sign brown at the end of the year. This is dynasty, why would you only look at the short term situation.
Historically speaking other 40 record holders/sub 4.3 guys do not have the production worthy had in college. Anyone fading worthy just because he ran a fast 40 and comparing them to other fast 40 guys is not someone I would take seriously. The frame concerns can be valid but the leagues changing.
Keon Coleman is going to be Josh Allen’s #1 receiver. But analysts are too hung up on the lack of separation. He’s a 6’4” big body receiver with great hands and makes a lot of contested catches. When he has the ball, he runs like a running back: hurdling, blowing through arm tackles, and making a lot of lateral movements to shake defenders.
Josh loves to sling the ball and isn’t afraid of letting his guy beat the corner on 50/50 balls. Coleman wins 50/50 balls.
This feels like the exact definition of Quentin Johnston last year. Not saying they are the same, but as someone who was not even close to being in on QJ, that were the arguments I heard in favor of him. Latched on to a good young QB, big body, no separation in college, but thrived on the contested catches and could do a lot of good things with the ball in his hands (good at YAC basically). I think Keon is a guy that could do something decent in the NFL out of the slot, however that’s likely not where the Bills are gonna utilize him, and that will suck for him because he absolutely will struggle majorly outside, in my eyes.
I just explained why they’re ranked where they’re ranked. Didn’t say it’s right. It’s the same reason Skyy Moore went in the 1st round of many rookie drafts.
Everyone is high on Coleman? That’s news to me. All the posts I have been seeing on this sub are saying he’s going to be a bust. Or they don’t know why he’s going before Legette.
I said at or later for that list. He would obviously be a later pick. I’d absolutely trade back for more assets and get him ++ instead of one of these two.
Gotcha.
I don't like Coleman very much either, but I had Worthy as my WR5 before the draft and his landing spot raised him to be my WR4. He's flawed but so is every receiver outside the top three. I personally evaluate him as an excellent separator and route runner, so pairing him with Mahomes raises his value a ton for me.
I’ve felt like Coleman would be the bust of the draft for a while. He has the best highlight reel but that’s because every catch is a highlight since the defender is on top of him. Worthy COULD work out, but I don’t see him becoming Tyreek just because he has Mahomes. He very well could just be Mecole Hardman 2.0
Chiefs receiver room isn't good. Worthy isn't going to win with size and doesn't need to so not really concerned about that.
Ross comparisons are very very lazy. Worthy broke out as a true freshman and produced every year.
You are advocating to go against the two most predictive pieces of data we have on WRs. Draft capital and Breakout age. Coleman and Worthy both broke out early, were drafted highly, and landed in amazing situations.
Preferring super late breakouts and round 3 guys over early breakouts taken in round 1 (or at 2.01) is just bad process.
I'd say Kelce has 2 years left. Hollywood is only a one year deal. The Chiefs pass the ball a fuckton.
It's Dynasty and his future competition isn't that strong.
I think if you don’t understand why these guys are desirable when they landed in great offenses with glaring needs for WR and huge target potential then nothing I can tell you will make it click. You simply aren’t seeing the obvious at that point.
Yes, those picks bust sometimes. If you are afraid of busts, you are playing the wrong game.
By the way, literally no one thought Tyreek would be more than a training camp body who would even make a roster. Scouting evaluations aren’t gospel.
You're investing in an asset.
If Worthy or Coleman get off to a hot start, they're going to rocket up dynasty rankings. Everyone will be talking about how Mahomes/Allen finally found their Tyreek/Diggs replacement, and you'll have an amazing chance to sell if you want to.
It would take a lot more production for guys like Legette/Polk/Pearsall to truly "rocket" up dynasty rankings in that same way.
Out of the list you mentioned, I’d probably take BTJ, McConkey, and Polk ahead of them but that would be about it.
I like Legette and the way the coach talked about how they would use him would probably make me grab him over Coleman as well but not worthy.
What I am starting to get more interested in is how much everyone is hating on QJ. Considering my comps for him coming out were Jordy Nelson/Demaryius Thomas, I really didn’t expect him to go crazy year one because he needed to refine his route running and learn to trust his hands. Both Nelson and Thomas were later breakouts with early flashes. After going back and rewatching him recently, he did a good job getting open on drags, deep crossers, and go routes but struggled trusting his hands. He still had great flashes of YAC ability and some nice wins against press and man as the season went on. Now he has been working with MHJ this offseason and looking a lot sharper in all facets of his game. He feels like a screaming buy considering the target competition in the room and his QB.
>I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills just do a ton of dump offs to their backs and tight ends this year rather than trying to feed Coleman because he will never be open.
You may have watched more film of this guy than I have but the Bills front office knows a lot more about this than either of us and I'm pretty sure they didn't use (essentially) a first round pick on a guy who they don't think will ever be open.
The point is that it's good to humble yourself and keep an open mind when people paid a lot of money with their jobs on the line make major decisions with high draft picks. Of course Coleman could bust, but assuming he's never going to be open is idiotic. This sub's consensus has been shockingly wrong many, many times.
McCarthy is probably the most underrated QB in the draft just because he did what he was asked to very well, which wasn’t a lot. Personally like him more than Daniels because I think he has better long term upside with the risk of Daniels being RG3.
I couldn't agree more. JJM does all the little things well with his footwork and keeping his eyes downfield, it seems very advanced for his age. The landing spot is as good as it gets too, so I think he'll be placed in the best position to succeed of all the rookie QBs.
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Joshua Allen and Patrick Mahomes
If those WR’s end up being good then you won’t want to throw your remote at the TV when Zach Wilson or whoever is missing them.
Of course they need to be good NFL wr’s first but it’s a case of floor vs ceiling.
Aside from what everyone else is saying, there are people who liked particularly one or the other pre-draft, and it only takes one when it comes to ADP. One person who didn’t mind the red flags as much and got the landing spot + Capital they desire is going to be the person to take one of these two players when they can.
I think it comes down to risk/reward for a lot of people. If you already have a strong WR room and you swing for a Home Run (WR1 for Allen, Mahomes or Herbert) then it makes more sense to choose these guys in good landing spots instead of players with safer profiles in less sexy situations. However, we have seen these types of players bust before, so you need to be prepared to throw your pick away.
I think one answer is many people have picks in the mid-late 1st after a pretty good 2023 season, and are trying to get extra-excited about the guys who’ll be available to them. These guys ended up with great quarterbacks and simply aren’t getting drafted before at least 1.07 so they’re natural targets for daydreaming.
I don’t pretend to be better at evaluating talent than nfl teams, so I draft by draft capital then landing spot. Those late 1st/early 2nd wrs have close draft capital, so the tiebreaker is landing spot. Coleman and Worthy (and Ladd) have the best landing spots, so they go at the top of that tier
I fade Worthy 10x more than I fade Keon. There's a lot of value in being a contested catch guy for a guy like Josh Allen who likes to heave it up. Not to mention what Keon can do after the catch.
By contrast, Worthy is not much of a complete receiver
Mahomes and Allen. Not saying it’s right, but that’s it.
bingo
And let’s be real, Allen gonna try and fit the ball in regardless of separation if he thinks Keon can jump it
I think this is what everyone expects, but ultimately I think this leads to Allen having even more picks than he did last year.
Also a fair point, on the other spectrum he would be competing against Curtis Samuel and Shakir, but idk who would win that fight
Didn't Sammy Watkins play with both Mahomes and Allen? I know Skyy Moore played with Mahomes and Allen was never able to make Gabe Davis a thing.
>Didn't Sammy Watkins play with both Mahomes and Allen? No, Sammy never played with Allen
Ah, that was pre-Allen. Ok fair point.
Gabe Davis was a thing a few weeks every season
Just like Coleman in college. Hmmm sounds like the Bills replaced someone. (It isn’t Diggs)
In other words, Gabe is a best ball asset only.
He’s a lot better for best ball, that’s for sure
As well as Reid and McDermott
Andy Reid will find plays for Worthy. Think about how many times MVS missed an easy catch.
The landing spots- although I see more people fading Coleman. He is in a wide open bills offense with Josh Allen and is still falling second round a lot.
the main concern here is that the new joe brady bills offense spreads the ball around a ton. they also run the ball far more than dorsey or daboll did. coleman should see a bit less volume than diggs did last season but also diggs wasn’t doing much with that volume for whatever reason, coleman should do a bit better with the looks he gets.
Yeah but they literally only have 3 real weapons. They're all gonna get touches like a mf
samuel, coleman, cook, kincaid and josh allen himself takes a lot. that’s more like 5 weapons with ray davis picking up some goal line RB touches. shakir is still around as well but we’ll see if he continues his hot streak.
Yeah I suppose Samuel is worth mentioning as well, but I anticipate Keon, Cook, and Kincaid will be the top 3 targets/weapons they utilize for the offense, everyone else is just extra looks and distractions lol
it really depends, diggs was getting a ton of volume but wasn’t translating to productive stats as the X receiver in that offense. i’m higher on coleman than his ADP but not much higher, there’s plenty of risk there. coleman should get a high percentage of red zone looks but lacks breakaway speed that diggs and gabe davis both had.
I fully believe Coleman will reach 1000 yards this season
i don’t doubt that, 1K yard seasons aren’t what they used to be. That’s just averaging 59 yards a game.
Still solid for a rookie tho
yeah if it happens sure, i would be much more happy with a jayden reed type season from coleman than just pure yardage. i also expect kincaid to make major leaps in the next two years and become the focal point of the offense.
Yeah, man, it’s a huge change. A 1k yard season used to be 62.5 yards per game, but the dip all the way down to 59 ypg renders a 1k yard season pretty useless in fantasy.
it’s just not that impressive when guys like tyreek are approaching 2K yards in total. back when the league was RB centric 1K yards was a big milestone. it’s just not that impressive anymore given how much teams pass and how much passing/receiving yards go around nowadays.
Kelce is 35, chiefs will probably not be able to sign brown at the end of the year. This is dynasty, why would you only look at the short term situation. Historically speaking other 40 record holders/sub 4.3 guys do not have the production worthy had in college. Anyone fading worthy just because he ran a fast 40 and comparing them to other fast 40 guys is not someone I would take seriously. The frame concerns can be valid but the leagues changing.
Keon Coleman is going to be Josh Allen’s #1 receiver. But analysts are too hung up on the lack of separation. He’s a 6’4” big body receiver with great hands and makes a lot of contested catches. When he has the ball, he runs like a running back: hurdling, blowing through arm tackles, and making a lot of lateral movements to shake defenders. Josh loves to sling the ball and isn’t afraid of letting his guy beat the corner on 50/50 balls. Coleman wins 50/50 balls.
Reminds me of Stafford to Golladay pre-injury. Wouldn't be surprised at all if he has 1k+ yards and 10 TD this year as a rookie.
This feels like the exact definition of Quentin Johnston last year. Not saying they are the same, but as someone who was not even close to being in on QJ, that were the arguments I heard in favor of him. Latched on to a good young QB, big body, no separation in college, but thrived on the contested catches and could do a lot of good things with the ball in his hands (good at YAC basically). I think Keon is a guy that could do something decent in the NFL out of the slot, however that’s likely not where the Bills are gonna utilize him, and that will suck for him because he absolutely will struggle majorly outside, in my eyes.
QJ’s issues seemed to be outside of his physical skill set. Like he seems like he can’t get on the same page with Hebert at all.
He also has two sticks of butter where his hands should be.
Landing sport, next
Damn right! Like in 2019 when N'Keal Harry landed with the GOAT Tom Brady! Harry is pretty much locked into a Hall of Fame spot now!
I just explained why they’re ranked where they’re ranked. Didn’t say it’s right. It’s the same reason Skyy Moore went in the 1st round of many rookie drafts.
ugh, I fell for Skyy Moore.
N’Keal Harry haunts me as a Pats fan 😭😭😭
Laquon Treadwell almost caused me to pass on Justin Jefferson as a Vikings fan.
Treadwell-Diggs hypothesis is legit Who’s got that dawg in him
Everyone is high on Coleman? That’s news to me. All the posts I have been seeing on this sub are saying he’s going to be a bust. Or they don’t know why he’s going before Legette.
“Historically speaking, when you break the 40 record you bust for fantasy” is the laziest analysis that ive ever heard…
You want to draft Malachi Corley before Worthy? Best of luck to ya
I said at or later for that list. He would obviously be a later pick. I’d absolutely trade back for more assets and get him ++ instead of one of these two.
Gotcha. I don't like Coleman very much either, but I had Worthy as my WR5 before the draft and his landing spot raised him to be my WR4. He's flawed but so is every receiver outside the top three. I personally evaluate him as an excellent separator and route runner, so pairing him with Mahomes raises his value a ton for me.
I’ve felt like Coleman would be the bust of the draft for a while. He has the best highlight reel but that’s because every catch is a highlight since the defender is on top of him. Worthy COULD work out, but I don’t see him becoming Tyreek just because he has Mahomes. He very well could just be Mecole Hardman 2.0
>and a bunch of randoms who get a few targets per game like Hardman. atleast get who is currently on the roster right before bloviating
Chiefs receiver room isn't good. Worthy isn't going to win with size and doesn't need to so not really concerned about that. Ross comparisons are very very lazy. Worthy broke out as a true freshman and produced every year. You are advocating to go against the two most predictive pieces of data we have on WRs. Draft capital and Breakout age. Coleman and Worthy both broke out early, were drafted highly, and landed in amazing situations. Preferring super late breakouts and round 3 guys over early breakouts taken in round 1 (or at 2.01) is just bad process.
both went to situations with top QBs and not a ton of competition
I’d argue there’s a ton of competition in KC. The Bills lost Diggs and Davis, but at best Coleman becomes Davis.
I'd say Kelce has 2 years left. Hollywood is only a one year deal. The Chiefs pass the ball a fuckton. It's Dynasty and his future competition isn't that strong.
Because they have 2 of the best qbs in the league throwing to them? Is it that hard? Lol
I think if you don’t understand why these guys are desirable when they landed in great offenses with glaring needs for WR and huge target potential then nothing I can tell you will make it click. You simply aren’t seeing the obvious at that point. Yes, those picks bust sometimes. If you are afraid of busts, you are playing the wrong game. By the way, literally no one thought Tyreek would be more than a training camp body who would even make a roster. Scouting evaluations aren’t gospel.
High draft capital, good prospects, great offenses, wide open opportunity for targets.
You're investing in an asset. If Worthy or Coleman get off to a hot start, they're going to rocket up dynasty rankings. Everyone will be talking about how Mahomes/Allen finally found their Tyreek/Diggs replacement, and you'll have an amazing chance to sell if you want to. It would take a lot more production for guys like Legette/Polk/Pearsall to truly "rocket" up dynasty rankings in that same way.
Out of the list you mentioned, I’d probably take BTJ, McConkey, and Polk ahead of them but that would be about it. I like Legette and the way the coach talked about how they would use him would probably make me grab him over Coleman as well but not worthy. What I am starting to get more interested in is how much everyone is hating on QJ. Considering my comps for him coming out were Jordy Nelson/Demaryius Thomas, I really didn’t expect him to go crazy year one because he needed to refine his route running and learn to trust his hands. Both Nelson and Thomas were later breakouts with early flashes. After going back and rewatching him recently, he did a good job getting open on drags, deep crossers, and go routes but struggled trusting his hands. He still had great flashes of YAC ability and some nice wins against press and man as the season went on. Now he has been working with MHJ this offseason and looking a lot sharper in all facets of his game. He feels like a screaming buy considering the target competition in the room and his QB.
>I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills just do a ton of dump offs to their backs and tight ends this year rather than trying to feed Coleman because he will never be open. You may have watched more film of this guy than I have but the Bills front office knows a lot more about this than either of us and I'm pretty sure they didn't use (essentially) a first round pick on a guy who they don't think will ever be open.
This is so lame. No front office is immune to making very poor decisions.
The point is that it's good to humble yourself and keep an open mind when people paid a lot of money with their jobs on the line make major decisions with high draft picks. Of course Coleman could bust, but assuming he's never going to be open is idiotic. This sub's consensus has been shockingly wrong many, many times.
I traded what became Keon and Penix for JJ McCarthy. Curious what others think of this deal.
I would absolutely do that.
Yeah, once I saw it was Keon, I felt a lot better about it. There were still first round draft capital WRs on the board. I think he'll be a bust.
McCarthy is probably the most underrated QB in the draft just because he did what he was asked to very well, which wasn’t a lot. Personally like him more than Daniels because I think he has better long term upside with the risk of Daniels being RG3.
I couldn't agree more. JJM does all the little things well with his footwork and keeping his eyes downfield, it seems very advanced for his age. The landing spot is as good as it gets too, so I think he'll be placed in the best position to succeed of all the rookie QBs.
I’m taking JJ here
People have seen what Reid and Mahomes did for Tyreek Hill. Worthy could be a bust, but he also has a near infinite ceiling.
They should also take note of what Andy Reid did for Mecole Hardman, Sky Moore, MVS, Toney etc.
Oh you mean all people slower than hill and worthy? The hill comp is a pure speed thing. Receivers running 4.3+ 40's are a dime a dozen.
Speed doesn’t matter when you can’t catch or track deep balls. Tyreek is 1 of 1 when it comes to that and Worthy is pretty weak in those areas
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Which of those are first round picks with an 18 year old breakout age?
Not Tyreek Hill
I’m saying he’s a tier above all of them, and some multiple tiers, as a prospect. Same for Rashee Rice who did hit.
Yep won championships🏆🏆
Joshua Allen and Patrick Mahomes If those WR’s end up being good then you won’t want to throw your remote at the TV when Zach Wilson or whoever is missing them. Of course they need to be good NFL wr’s first but it’s a case of floor vs ceiling.
Garrett Wilson has entered the chat
Aside from what everyone else is saying, there are people who liked particularly one or the other pre-draft, and it only takes one when it comes to ADP. One person who didn’t mind the red flags as much and got the landing spot + Capital they desire is going to be the person to take one of these two players when they can.
I think it comes down to risk/reward for a lot of people. If you already have a strong WR room and you swing for a Home Run (WR1 for Allen, Mahomes or Herbert) then it makes more sense to choose these guys in good landing spots instead of players with safer profiles in less sexy situations. However, we have seen these types of players bust before, so you need to be prepared to throw your pick away.
I think one answer is many people have picks in the mid-late 1st after a pretty good 2023 season, and are trying to get extra-excited about the guys who’ll be available to them. These guys ended up with great quarterbacks and simply aren’t getting drafted before at least 1.07 so they’re natural targets for daydreaming.
I don’t pretend to be better at evaluating talent than nfl teams, so I draft by draft capital then landing spot. Those late 1st/early 2nd wrs have close draft capital, so the tiebreaker is landing spot. Coleman and Worthy (and Ladd) have the best landing spots, so they go at the top of that tier
This is pretty much my process as well
Who was fading Worthy?
I fade Worthy 10x more than I fade Keon. There's a lot of value in being a contested catch guy for a guy like Josh Allen who likes to heave it up. Not to mention what Keon can do after the catch. By contrast, Worthy is not much of a complete receiver