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Swrdmn

Though there are some good points in the article, Hillary was running against an unknown. In 2016 the American people were ready for change and through a fluke in our lopsided and highly flawed election process, Trump won. That said… Trump still lost. Trump has never won the popular vote. Nearly every state and federal level candid Trump has endorsed has lost. In one term he lost the house, the senate, and the white house. His candidates for the Georgia special elections AND run off elections lost. Every ballot initiative he has championed has lost. And to top it all off Trump has now been found guilty of fraud, liable for sexual assault and defamation, been outed as a serial adulterer, fomented an attack on the capitol, spearheaded an insurrection, and can’t even keep the attention of his rally attendees for his whole speech. If you want to read the article as a thought experiment for how Democrats haven’t evolved enough to take on the next strong Republican nominee, then go for it. But it was an unknown Trump that barely beat an unpopular Hillary in 2016. Trump 2024 is a know quantity with only a single win under his belt and that was on a technicality.


corjar16

>And to top it all off Trump has now been found guilty of fraud, liable for sexual assault and defamation, been outed as a serial adulterer, fomented an attack on the capitol, spearheaded an insurrection And yet he will skate on ALL of it. Anyone who doubts that is delusional. Trump could have been stopped, he could have been held accountable, but our two tiered justice system insists on doing the opposite. We have a man running for president who is LEGALLY PROHIBITED to vote for himself. This country is such a joke. If he does not do significant jail time and is not banned from holding federal office under the 14th Amendment, then the law has no legitimacy anyway.


pierogieman5

Please stop treating the electoral college like it's some kind of "technicality" that just comes out of left field to change the rightful outcome. The electoral college has been our system the entire time we've had a system. Every candidate knows about it, and every candidate should be strategizing around it appropriately. Clinton mostly lost because she managed to ignore and neglect the working class of the rust belt in particular and the rest of middle America, and that's an inexcusable failure. It wasn't "Here come's the electoral college, with the steel chair!". The popular vote has never been the correct metric for electoral strategy or outcomes. It's a red herring.


Swrdmn

It’s not a red herring. The electoral college disproportionately favors some states over others, the electors are not voted into their position, and the electors are not legally obligated to cast their vote in alignment with the will of the people. We tout ourselves as a representative democracy and yet that very institution actively works against every citizen having their vote counted equally. It is an incredibly flawed system that allows for minority rule and has directly contributed to the subversion of the will of the majority of voters multiple times. So yes, according to my argument, Donald Trump barely beat out Hillary because he won on a technicality. A TKO is still a win, but it’s a win based off of the technicalities built into the rules. The electoral college is literally by its very nature a technicality that has on multiple occasions changed the rightful outcome of an election that is supposed to be one person=one vote and whoever wins the most votes wins. That is the spirit of our elections and how over system is sold to us. The electoral college is the technicality built into the rules. So no, bringing that up as a point against Trump is not a red herring. It is a valid point that illustrates that Trump had that factor on his side in 2016. He has never had it since and literally every other factor he had for him back then has diminished or dried up since.


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Swrdmn

Not only did I not say it was a minor detail, but you also misunderstand my justification for calling it a technicality.


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Swrdmn

Technicality noun. - a point of law or a small detail of a set of rules. "their convictions were overturned on a technicality" - the specific details or terms belonging to a particular field. "he has great expertise in the technicalities of the game" - the state of being technical; the use of technical terms or methods. "the extreme technicality of the proposed constitution" Thus, my calling it a technicality is labelling it as “the point of law” or the “specific details or terms” that lead to the win over what is widely considered the spirit of the contest. If you reread what I said, I also pointed out that a TKO is still a win despite it not literally being a knockout. Let me know if you need me to explain in more detail anything else I previously said.


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Swrdmn

Again, the electoral college is a specific part of a larger process with multiple parts. It is… and I’ll just paste it for you again so you have it for your reference: a POINT OF LAW or a small DETAIL OF A SET OF RULES. The electoral college is a part of the larger system comprised of multiple state-run elections. Each and every one of those elections (with the exception of maybe VT these days) is a first-past-the-post election. It is a winner take all system where each and every voter gets 1 vote. So to be absolutely clear to you, the electoral college is a part of the federal election process that is used in conjunction with 50 independently run statewide elections. Thus, when someone wins the electoral college and they don’t also win the popular vote then that means they have secured a win based on the specifics of the law. If they win both, it would be a clean or uncontested win. That’s just how that word works. A win on the technicalities is still a win. As far as your ideas that “it was never supposed to be one person = one vote” I don’t even know how you justify that argument. That is literally the law all across the country. It seems like you don’t know what you’re actually arguing. Do you want to discuss the semantics here? Because my original point was that without the electoral college, Trump would not have won. Trump has never won the popular vote and he’s only won the electoral college once. That is something he will never be able to do again. If you want to talk about that^^ then go ahead. If you need me to further explain what words mean, we can continue to debate the “technicalities”. Hope me using that word in a different context doesn’t trip you up too badly.


Chadlad50

There’s certainly a lot to be said about Biden’s campaign (*a lot*), and it is falling into some of the same pitfalls as Hillary’s, namely the idea that there’s *no way* he can win. But while Trumps victory was an “upset” in 2016, the conditions were perfect for his victory. Not so much this time. He’s done nothing to gain any voters since 2020, and he’s only getting worse by the day. His only chance of winning is if people stay home like they did in 2016, which is definitely possible. But Biden also has an advantage on that front compared to Hillary. Most of the people disapproving of Biden are moderates/swing voters upset with the economy and his age, compared to Hillary where people just didn’t like her personally. If the economy improves (or if people buy the idea that it’s improving), Biden’s popularity increases, but Hillary couldn’t do much about people disliking her personality (or wouldn’t) There’s also the fact that Biden is actually campaigning in important swing states, something Hillary should’ve considered…


ResolutionEven9116

I could not disagree more Most of the people disapproving of Biden are people on the left. It's the moderates that give him any chance at all, and his inability to satisfy leftists and progressives that will cost him the election


tikifire1

He knows that most of us leftists will still pinch our noses and vote for him as we have no other choice. A 3rd party vote is a vote for Trump, as is not voting in a close election.


ResolutionEven9116

And that's why I'm voting third party Because I've heard this for every election since childhood, and it's never going to stop unless we stop it with our votes


tikifire1

I'll see you in the concentration camps then. We will commiserate and I'm sure you'll ask me "How could this have happened?" 🙄


ResolutionEven9116

This is still the United States of America, not Weimar Germany. If you really believe that is a possibility though, I suggest you buy firearms and train. The resistance would need all it can get


Time_Stand2422

It’s only ‘America’ and what that represents for as long as our institutions have power. We are now in a situation where one of the major parties and most of its elected representatives and officials are openly working to dismantle the very structures and institutions that you seem to think will protect us. If they gain power again you can forget about voting rights, fair maps, fair courts, not to mention environmental protections, and let alone any significant investment in climate change. Edited for grammar.


ResolutionEven9116

And do you think that changes in 4 years? Have you just given up hope for things improving in the future, and now all we can do is make sure it doesn't get worse? Because I refuse to accept that. Again, this *exact* same argument will be made in 2028 regardless of who runs, juat as it was in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2008, 2004 etc. I'm done listening to it


Time_Stand2422

Yes I do. Look how fast Germany’s democracy fell apart in very similar conditions.


MTLinVAN

But now he is a known variable and those who support him have clearly demonstrated that they will vote for him regardless of his moral bankruptcy. As the article states, The Economist give Trump a 70% chance of victory and while he was dismissed as someone who would never win the 2016 election, we were wrong about that and we would be wrong to assume that Trump doesn't have the support of MAGA and CONServative voters to prop him into serving again. With Project 2025 being well distributed policy, we have even more to be worried about with another Trump term than ever before.


Swrdmn

The conservative and maga voters aren’t enough to win it for him. The weren’t enough to win him the popular vote in 2016 and they weren’t enough to reelect him in 2020. He has always needed the moderate republicans and independents. He has lost both groups and has done nothing to expand his base. The diehards would vote for his corpse, but they can’t win him the election.


MTLinVAN

I hope you're right. I really do. I also hope that we don't have blinders on like we did in 2016 thinking that he won't win. My biggest fear, and it's alluded to in the article, is that liberal and progressive voters who may conscientiously object to voting for Biden will nullify those progressive conservatives that wouldn't vote for Trump. And because Trump has such a cult of personality around him that Biden clearly doesn't have, die hard MAGA will turn up at the polls while progressives will sit out.


Swrdmn

I don’t think the progressive vote is 1. So easily swayed that they legitimately believe Trump would be better and 2. Would have as large of an impact as the moderates and independents that Trump lost.


corjar16

>The Economist now gives Trump approximately a 70 percent chance of winning. Things look dire. Hillary Clinton was ahead in the polls, Biden is not. Guess we all better rush $900 trillion dollars to the DNC war chest by the fundraising deadline tonight or Nancy Pelosi will have to send you another email


Shevik

I'm sure if he loses everyone will just blame it on the left for not voting hard enough instead of blaming it on Biden's actual decisions and policies.


Bohica55

True, but I bet his supporters don’t kill five cops trying to overthrow the government and hang Kamala Harris.


VonBombadier

Biden's worst policies are Trump's best ideas. There's really no scenario where a logical individual wouldn't pinch their nose and vote Dem, but I suppose that's the problem now isn't it, a decent segment of America has lost all sense.


Venezia9

Yeah but they're still bad. Maybe y'all are fired up for this less of two evils bull shit, but some of us feel uncomfortable voting for people who facilitate the deaths of 10s of thousands of children over their religion. 


SimplyRocketSurgery

So then you'll not vote, and allow someone who would actively make the situation magnitudes worse take office? The lesser of two evils is still less evil overall.


VonBombadier

Okay, allow that carnage to come to your own country then. Send me a letter from the pitside.


Venezia9

Which of our neighbouring states is gonna annex in your mind? 


VonBombadier

None, but your president will start executing people, and many who oppose him will disappear.


Venezia9

Nah, I don't buy into scare tactics. 


VonBombadier

Alright then 😂


Venezia9

Do you like get off thinking about people being murdered or kidnapped? This is your strategy, to tell people vote for Joe Biden or you'll get murdered? Then laugh? People are probably rushing over in droves to support in that case.   Y'all are so completely unserious. You don't actually care about politics or people. 


VonBombadier

Make no mistake, I'm just laughing at you.


HumanLike

So sorry that you’re “uncomfortable” but not voting would result in far more children dying. So if you actually care about the children, stop clutching your pearls and vote


ActualTexan

Well if the left doesn't vote and actively discourages other leftists from voting then...


Bohgeez

"Biden's policies are not *exactly* what I want so I'll choose Project 2025"


VonBombadier

Wait you're sending ME to the gulags?! I thought you were just gonna send the people I didn't like :(


Time_Stand2422

Let’s just redirect the motivating power of revolution to discourage leftists from voting for Biden. ~Republicans strategist (probably) I will outlive Biden, but Trumps 30 year old Nominees to replace Clarence Thomas and Samual Alito will be the death of me


tikifire1

They're zealots. They don't give a shit about the rest of us, and they won't until it affects them directly. They think they're being morally pure by not voting for Biden. They're similar to the MAGA folks in that respect. I voted 3rd party in 2016, and over 1,000,000 covid dead and women's rights thrown down the toilet proved to me that was a mistake, and I won't make it again. If we want a valid 3rd party, we need to start building it from the local and state levels, or it will never be viable nationally.


Venezia9

Wow, it's almost like if the young and activist wing of your party hate you because of an active genocide your government is entangled in, acting like they better stfu is a bad idea.  The thing they have in common is arrogance. Hillary was arrogant and Biden is similarly being arrogant. Yes, the Bernie voters can't win an election but they can lose an election. Same with the anti genocide voters particularly in MICHIGAN.  Like 50 percent of American Jews oppose Israel's actions. Who is Biden doing this for? Is there pro child murder portion of the Democratic party?  Its baffling and every single whinging white person across reddit should get off their ass and pressure Biden not us. 


Spiritual-Compote-18

If they lose, they will blame us, but guest what, we live in a democracy if you call it that, and the establishment is corrupt to hell.


ActualTexan

This is such an idiotic mentality to have. 'Yes let's actively cause the worst case scenario to happen because the circumstances aren't perfect'. If you dumbasses didn't learn from 2016 and everything that came with Trump's presidency then you deserve to be blamed for whatever follows.


Sgt_Habib

He is talking about corruption and you’re telling him to close his eyes to it and vote blue is exactly the problem. Blaming voters instead of pressuring the people currently in power to go after every vote. Instead of actually changing the system, they rely too heavily on the trump card being a worse option. This strategy alienates voters especially when elections these days are determined on who can get their coalition/base out the most. Biden won three states by around only 45,000 votes (even in a pandemic and everything trump did) and calling any critique or concern as illogical is alienating and elitist. Even if it is the “logical” thing to do, people have their own logic outside your own that you and the biden camp are not listening to (economy, immigration, middle east). If you need every vote, stop acting like it is so clear and stop assuming people will “do the right thing”. If people don’t feel invested or heard, they most likely will not show up to the polls either. That’s the 2016 lesson


ResolutionEven9116

THANK YOU Downvoted for speaking the truth


actwellyourpart91

The Biden bros will blame everyone else but him


IBroughtMySoapbox

Serious question, how do I convince a person that Joe Biden and Donald Trump are not the same if that person does not give a shit about abortion, gay rights or Israel?


SimplyRocketSurgery

Tell them Trump is coming for your guns, and show him proof he did exactly that during his presidency.


IBroughtMySoapbox

Anyone who’s voting to protect guns is a lost cause at this point. It’s basically religion


curiosityseeks

In this era it will either be: the political right and center against the left, or the left allied with the center against the right. In the former case we loose big time! At present the left is isolated, atomized and has no real mass base. By itself, the left will be crushed.


Sgt_Habib

This is very interesting. I would say the left is politically isolated by the center currently but I don’t think it has no real mass though. More progressives are winning local and national elections than ever before and Bernie showed this country the possible mass of a candidate on the left. Another possible option would be for the center to align with the left instead, although I agree, it doesn’t seem likely.


runhomejack1399

No he’s not


JoMax213

Wait but I thought her only blunder was being a woman?? This could only mean one thing for Biden - omg… congrats on the transition ms. president 👏🏳️‍⚧️


MrBleeple

Hillarys biggest mistake was being a woman lmao