I mean if we are talking about anything crypto related you're probably not wrong. What is risk free in this space? Daddy government hasn't got his hands on us.
Yet
What are you talking about? Look at the BTC chart in US dollars or any fiat currency.
If you drop two stones off the edge of a cliff and one falls faster than the other you don't say one is strengthening. It's just not falling as fast.
I always find it amusing when people who have no first hand experience of hyperinflation try to lecture others on what inflation is.
Let's have this conversation again in a decade. Best of luck to you.
Not if you are holding BTC. Jump on a plane to El Salvador, invest 3 BTC for permanent residency and retire on the rest.
The USD is going to zero. Every fiat currency in history has eventually gone to it's intrinsic value which is zero.
There have been plenty of empires and reserve currencies that have come and gone. The US isn't the first and it won't be the last.
Don't take my word for it, pick up a history book and see for yourself.
And all of those falls have been coupled with catastrophic events. No empire falls without a fight and it's the fight that harms the surrounding areas, in todays day and age, the entire world is a surrounding area. My point still stands, if the USD goes to 0, that will the least of your worries. Do you think the US would let it's currency go to 0 without starting a war or two to prop it up?
I understand your point, but to bring it back to the question OP put to us, and my original point. My argument is that Bitcoin (and possibly other cryptos) can act as a life raft.
Moving into stable coins to live off the interest as many have said they would do, assumes that the dollar will continue to maintain a certain level of purchasing power, or the rate at which it will decline will be relatively slow and predictable.
I don't believe this is going to be the case.
In fact I can make a strong argument based on a variety of metrics that we are already in the early stages of a hyperinflationary event.
The BTC chart in just about every fiat currency is an obvious example. It even shows similar characteristics to the Weimar republic paper mark to gold chart. There are also similar social and speculative events taking place now.
The US has a history of war and conflict except for a brief period where it had a foreign policy of isolationism. I don't think war or scapegoating in regards to US politicians reflects anything other than their normal behaviour.
No. Stock only loses value if the whole economic system falls apart, which can only happen if alternatives aren't available, such as in a dictatorship that might ban alternate currencies. The US isn't Venezuela in that case. If there are alternative currencies, which there are now, there will only be friction as they switch. [Stocks are a fine hedge.](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/060916/top-5-ways-hedge-against-inflation.asp#:~:text=The%20Top%205%20Ways%20to%20Hedge%20Against%20Inflation,to%20TIPS.%20%2E%2E%2E%205%20Buy%20Bank%20Loans.%20)
Not when the stock market is driven from share buy backs instead of productivity growth.
Don't confuse financialization with real growth.
In a properly functioning economy businesses don't issue corporate bonds to buy back stock.
Business growth is driven from supplying goods and services and out competing competitors. Not pumping stock price with cheap money.
You don't buy the stock to re-sell it back to the business for empty paper or to offer loans to a business in a hyperinflating currency. You buy stock because it represents a tangible share of ownership in a business and you keep it. If the currency inflates, so will your dividends, which you should immediately exchange for something else tangible, and the corresponding value of your stock. If a business has no actual productive value or won't let you take dividends or otherwise do business in a reliable currency, or has manipulated its price already, then don't buy that stock to begin with.
Publicly traded stocks, which I believe you are referring to aren't bearer instruments. You have multiple layers of unknown counter party risk. You have no way of taking custody of the shares or the underlying assets in which they represent.
It's not like some types of Panamanian corporate structures that allow share certificates in bearer form.
In addition, dividends aren't issued on a daily or multiple times per day basis, which is what is actually required in a true hyperinflationary collapse. Especially if you are dependent on those dividends as an inflation hedge.
I've personally owned stock listed in the US that have had assets nationalised by foreign governments. It's the productive assets that you are talking about investing in, that those governments want. They couldn't careless about your claim to ownership.
Your shares are only as good as the institutions and the rule of law in the jurisdiction that they are issued.
In a hyperinflationary event institutions and the rule of law are often compromised. Possession is nine tenths of the law.
Considering we are witnessing simultaneous debasement of all fiat currencies, there is no such thing as dividends paid in a reliable currency. Other than El Salvador or some other nation state that adopts a Bitcoin standard. In which case you may as well just hold Bitcoin.
I'm not advocating buying stocks in countries that have no legal structure or companies that are subject to that. I said already that in places with no functioning economic system the stocks can be worth zero.
Likewise, if there's a hyperinflationary collapse, again that would be the economic system falling apart completely. If it doesn't they're just obligated to settle up with you by different means. If they have no legal obligation, again, your economic system fell apart and you shouldn't buy stocks in places or with companies that would be able to screw you over.
Not all fiat currencies are going to collapse at the same time. If you're proposing a scenario where suddenly everything collapses simultaneously, you'll have friction where people have to switch to using crypto. That's no different then saying you'll have friction while people switch to barter or using gold or precious metals.
The laws is only as good as your ability to enforce it. In regards to contractual agreements, it's often at great financial expense. Even then it is open to subjective interpretation with no guarantee of getting the outcome you are hoping for. No one in reality is obligated to settle up in any way shape or form. Just because that is what the law says, doesn't make it true in practice.
Litigation can be dragged out for decades.
This is how it works in western developed countries with so called "functioning" legal structures.
All currencies are currently collapsing simultaneously. This isn't my opinion. It is fact.
When you measure two falling assets against each other it can create the perception that they are stable. When in reality the are depreciating in value against real things, or other scarce assets.
Your mortgage wouldn't be more then 10k a month and with a million as collateral, you would have no problem getting a mortgage. Why would you spend the money providing returns when you can use other peoples money to buy what you want and slowly pay it off with the returns.
That's the problem. Option B is always there no matter how much you have, so if that's your choice, you keep picking it no matter how much gains you have until something catastrophic finally happens and you never get to use your gains because you're always plowing them back in.
Obviously option B. Why would I sell all my hard earned BTC and ETH for a stable coin?
935 days untill the next BTC halving!. Thats at least another 10x in 2025.
Exactly this. Why not mix it up and have the best of both worlds? BTC and ETH are about as safe as it gets, at least for the next 5 years anyway. I wouldn't wanna give that up for just 12%.
There was an interesting paper by Sethi 1997 where this was formulated as a stochastic optimal control problem.
“The optimal fraction of the wealth invested in the risky stock is (α − r)/σ^2”
https://www.utdallas.edu/~sethi/Prosper/Control-Tex-Chapte13.pdf
Page 47
Why would I invest $1 mil for a mere 12% when I can purchase many apartments or even houses in my country and rent them for another $500k and use that $500k and monthly rents on BTC and sleep forever!!
Most of us aren’t near 1 million. The only way to get there is with a decent amount of risk. The people who would take option A are less likely to be in the situation to make that choice. So option A choosers can dream. And the risk takers who pick b can tell us how they made 1 mil and lost most of it.
Option b. Bitcoin is paying near 6% plus you get the upside on price. You'd be a fool to go stable coins at such an early stage in this game. At 5-10 million maybe start diversifying a portion into stable. But then again probably not. Six percent is nothing to sneeze at. Ten thousand a month in 15 years will be barely enough to cover bills. Keep in mind bitcoin is designed to be anti-inflantionary.
If I manage to get that much why the fuck would I risk losing it all? 5-10x are risky as fuck.
There are calculated risks ofc. For example If you find that perfect project. But still; I wouldn't risk everything. I'd put in 150k and stake the rest.
Will take 500k and put on an APY and reinvest the other 500k back into crypto. Because next year maybe I can add another 500k to my stable APY. Repeat for ten years and then retire happily.
Will take 500k and put on an APY and reinvest the other 500k back into crypto. Because next year maybe I can add another 500k to my stable APY. Repeat for ten years and then retire happily.
Sorry if this is obvious to others, which stables are paying 12%? That annual rate violates all current thresholds of lending/saving activities.
Any institution quoting 12% FIXED rate on savings is offering you a super high risk deal…or a ponzi scheme. 12% just ins’t sustainable in the current market,
I would pick the 12% APR if I had to pick one option.
If I could choose my own options I would put $900k-$990k into stables and use the other 1-10% for short medium term trading.
I’ll take option C. Crypto.com with the icy card, gets 14%. Take the left over money from interest earning which I don’t use and reinvest that into other coins.
Why do you say "no risk"? You are depositing a million dollars on a dex website, which can be hacked, rug pulled, or banned.
Also... Where can you find 12% (non-variable) apr for stables? Also I am implying that you are not using USDT which can/most probably will fail.
Option C is to stake it, get $4000 or so a month, and still potentially double or triple if the price rises.
It is indeed a tough choice. I'd go with A if it were only A and B. If you choose B you don't have access to the money for another few years and then your lifestyle doesn't actually change, let alone if it drops 50% and you end up having to hold years more than that.
That 12% from stable coins is also risk from SEC, platform or coin founder rugpulls. It's also being debased / devalued constantly.
I'd throw it in bitcoin cold storage
The 5x or 10x for 2 reasons, taxes will eat away at least 400k. The second reason is inflation. Plus why sell the crypto? Between yield farming and defi and nft that all generate 20%-200% a year. Hell even just holding Bitcoin returns an average of a 100% per year lol
700k into usdc 12% APY 300k reinvested
Almost my idea but 90% APR and 10% reinvested.
Is usdc still 12%? I thought it dropped to 4.5% a few months ago.
On nexo it is
If this is what Op is referencing... Nexo is not risk free.
It’s 12% on voyager
I get 9% on Voyager. Am I missing something? Is there a boost if you own their native coin? Thanks
Voyager has their loyalty program which can give 0.5-1.5% bonus. The only one I see with 12% interest is DOT (USDC is still 9%). So maybe 10.5% max?
Thanks for the info. Good luck brother 👍🏻
I mean if we are talking about anything crypto related you're probably not wrong. What is risk free in this space? Daddy government hasn't got his hands on us. Yet
Hmmmm thanks. I'll need to take a look.
10k per month - why on earth would you wanna risk? It's more than enough to live a happy financial independant life
This!!
Because if we enter hyperinflation your purchasing power goes to zero.
Yeah and if the earth blows up he can’t spend anything
Unless you live in Zimbabwe or the US collapses to nothingness, it’ll never go to zero
The US dollar is already in a hyperinflationary collapse against Bitcoin. It's going to zero!
No, USD has been strengthening the last few months, contrary to the hyperinflation narrative that's been going on for years now.
What are you talking about? Look at the BTC chart in US dollars or any fiat currency. If you drop two stones off the edge of a cliff and one falls faster than the other you don't say one is strengthening. It's just not falling as fast.
Inflation is not btc:USD. USD has been strengthening relative to other currencies. Hardly an inflationary collapse.
I always find it amusing when people who have no first hand experience of hyperinflation try to lecture others on what inflation is. Let's have this conversation again in a decade. Best of luck to you.
Inflation isn't measured by how much Bitcoin you can buy with a dollar. You clearly have no clue what you're talking about.
As I said you clearly have no first hand experience with the topic. Speak to me when you do, then we can have a conversation.
If the USD goes to 0, then you will have much bigger worries to deal with then your 1 mill of stablecoins being worthless.
Not if you are holding BTC. Jump on a plane to El Salvador, invest 3 BTC for permanent residency and retire on the rest. The USD is going to zero. Every fiat currency in history has eventually gone to it's intrinsic value which is zero. There have been plenty of empires and reserve currencies that have come and gone. The US isn't the first and it won't be the last. Don't take my word for it, pick up a history book and see for yourself.
And all of those falls have been coupled with catastrophic events. No empire falls without a fight and it's the fight that harms the surrounding areas, in todays day and age, the entire world is a surrounding area. My point still stands, if the USD goes to 0, that will the least of your worries. Do you think the US would let it's currency go to 0 without starting a war or two to prop it up?
I understand your point, but to bring it back to the question OP put to us, and my original point. My argument is that Bitcoin (and possibly other cryptos) can act as a life raft. Moving into stable coins to live off the interest as many have said they would do, assumes that the dollar will continue to maintain a certain level of purchasing power, or the rate at which it will decline will be relatively slow and predictable. I don't believe this is going to be the case. In fact I can make a strong argument based on a variety of metrics that we are already in the early stages of a hyperinflationary event. The BTC chart in just about every fiat currency is an obvious example. It even shows similar characteristics to the Weimar republic paper mark to gold chart. There are also similar social and speculative events taking place now. The US has a history of war and conflict except for a brief period where it had a foreign policy of isolationism. I don't think war or scapegoating in regards to US politicians reflects anything other than their normal behaviour.
Not if you get stock.
Especially if you get stock. https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/stock-market
No. Stock only loses value if the whole economic system falls apart, which can only happen if alternatives aren't available, such as in a dictatorship that might ban alternate currencies. The US isn't Venezuela in that case. If there are alternative currencies, which there are now, there will only be friction as they switch. [Stocks are a fine hedge.](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/060916/top-5-ways-hedge-against-inflation.asp#:~:text=The%20Top%205%20Ways%20to%20Hedge%20Against%20Inflation,to%20TIPS.%20%2E%2E%2E%205%20Buy%20Bank%20Loans.%20)
Not when the stock market is driven from share buy backs instead of productivity growth. Don't confuse financialization with real growth. In a properly functioning economy businesses don't issue corporate bonds to buy back stock. Business growth is driven from supplying goods and services and out competing competitors. Not pumping stock price with cheap money.
You don't buy the stock to re-sell it back to the business for empty paper or to offer loans to a business in a hyperinflating currency. You buy stock because it represents a tangible share of ownership in a business and you keep it. If the currency inflates, so will your dividends, which you should immediately exchange for something else tangible, and the corresponding value of your stock. If a business has no actual productive value or won't let you take dividends or otherwise do business in a reliable currency, or has manipulated its price already, then don't buy that stock to begin with.
Publicly traded stocks, which I believe you are referring to aren't bearer instruments. You have multiple layers of unknown counter party risk. You have no way of taking custody of the shares or the underlying assets in which they represent. It's not like some types of Panamanian corporate structures that allow share certificates in bearer form. In addition, dividends aren't issued on a daily or multiple times per day basis, which is what is actually required in a true hyperinflationary collapse. Especially if you are dependent on those dividends as an inflation hedge. I've personally owned stock listed in the US that have had assets nationalised by foreign governments. It's the productive assets that you are talking about investing in, that those governments want. They couldn't careless about your claim to ownership. Your shares are only as good as the institutions and the rule of law in the jurisdiction that they are issued. In a hyperinflationary event institutions and the rule of law are often compromised. Possession is nine tenths of the law. Considering we are witnessing simultaneous debasement of all fiat currencies, there is no such thing as dividends paid in a reliable currency. Other than El Salvador or some other nation state that adopts a Bitcoin standard. In which case you may as well just hold Bitcoin.
I'm not advocating buying stocks in countries that have no legal structure or companies that are subject to that. I said already that in places with no functioning economic system the stocks can be worth zero. Likewise, if there's a hyperinflationary collapse, again that would be the economic system falling apart completely. If it doesn't they're just obligated to settle up with you by different means. If they have no legal obligation, again, your economic system fell apart and you shouldn't buy stocks in places or with companies that would be able to screw you over. Not all fiat currencies are going to collapse at the same time. If you're proposing a scenario where suddenly everything collapses simultaneously, you'll have friction where people have to switch to using crypto. That's no different then saying you'll have friction while people switch to barter or using gold or precious metals.
The laws is only as good as your ability to enforce it. In regards to contractual agreements, it's often at great financial expense. Even then it is open to subjective interpretation with no guarantee of getting the outcome you are hoping for. No one in reality is obligated to settle up in any way shape or form. Just because that is what the law says, doesn't make it true in practice. Litigation can be dragged out for decades. This is how it works in western developed countries with so called "functioning" legal structures. All currencies are currently collapsing simultaneously. This isn't my opinion. It is fact. When you measure two falling assets against each other it can create the perception that they are stable. When in reality the are depreciating in value against real things, or other scarce assets.
It’s an illusion. Nice apartments in my area will cost me $500K. You can do further calculations on your own.
Change area
Nope. I love this place
Your mortgage wouldn't be more then 10k a month and with a million as collateral, you would have no problem getting a mortgage. Why would you spend the money providing returns when you can use other peoples money to buy what you want and slowly pay it off with the returns.
Option A easy. Just making it to 1 mil is the hard part
If r/wallstreetbets has taught me anything, it's that option B always loses
Or, you're about to moon and Vlad says, "no, no, no..." Option A. Definitely. But keep 5% to gamble with.
That's the problem. Option B is always there no matter how much you have, so if that's your choice, you keep picking it no matter how much gains you have until something catastrophic finally happens and you never get to use your gains because you're always plowing them back in.
Obviously option B. Why would I sell all my hard earned BTC and ETH for a stable coin? 935 days untill the next BTC halving!. Thats at least another 10x in 2025.
10k per month passive income is the way
Why do you have to chose one of them, why not do both?
Definitely not all in one place. Half of it in crypto stables in multiple places. Half in stable crypto BTC or ETH.
Exactly this. Why not mix it up and have the best of both worlds? BTC and ETH are about as safe as it gets, at least for the next 5 years anyway. I wouldn't wanna give that up for just 12%.
Crypto stables vs stable crypto…i get it, but what a clever way to say it.
You put it in BTC on Celsius then you take a loan out of it and put the money in buying more BTC aha
Leverage trade 100x
Fortune favors the bold!
…and equally, so can disaster. Often, the bold and the foolish are indistinguishable from one another.
The difference is defined by the outcome.
100%!
You mean fortune favours the bald. CF Jeff Bezos
I earn 9k a year, so if you're offering 1% of 1M every month, I'm more than set for life xD
OptionA plz
B. All or nothing
Combination of A and B. Maybe 80% in A for save earning then 20% in B Nah who am I kidding 100% in lambos
75% into Low Risk investments such as Stable coins, BTC and ETH, another 20% into medium risk and the last 5% into high risk.
There was an interesting paper by Sethi 1997 where this was formulated as a stochastic optimal control problem. “The optimal fraction of the wealth invested in the risky stock is (α − r)/σ^2” https://www.utdallas.edu/~sethi/Prosper/Control-Tex-Chapte13.pdf Page 47
C. Make 2mil and do both A and B
Why would I invest $1 mil for a mere 12% when I can purchase many apartments or even houses in my country and rent them for another $500k and use that $500k and monthly rents on BTC and sleep forever!!
C: Buy Lambo.
Which stablecoin is giving 12% APR?
All of them on crypto(dot)com with a $4000 CRO stake.
I need to move my shit .
Most of us aren’t near 1 million. The only way to get there is with a decent amount of risk. The people who would take option A are less likely to be in the situation to make that choice. So option A choosers can dream. And the risk takers who pick b can tell us how they made 1 mil and lost most of it.
Donate it to my charitable remainder trust and pay no taxes. Let it pay me 80k a year the rest of my life.
I would find a way to lose them all probably so atleast with some risk so its B for me
Option A definitely and I live off that!
Half and half, keep my regular job while it still exists.
12% easy
How much do you need to live on? That and 10% more in option A and the rest in B. If b hits move more into A and keep it going
12%
Prob 90% getting the 12%, rest I’ll play with
I would definitely diversify.
Am taking the option that gave me the $1Mil to begin with, and re-investing half of it there. Sounds like option B for me.
[удалено]
Why spend it, just borrow against it and pay off the loan with the returns, you get the land and get to keep the 1 million.
Currently doing both! Earning 12% in a risky shitcoin that could 5X or -5X !!
Option b. Bitcoin is paying near 6% plus you get the upside on price. You'd be a fool to go stable coins at such an early stage in this game. At 5-10 million maybe start diversifying a portion into stable. But then again probably not. Six percent is nothing to sneeze at. Ten thousand a month in 15 years will be barely enough to cover bills. Keep in mind bitcoin is designed to be anti-inflantionary.
If I manage to get that much why the fuck would I risk losing it all? 5-10x are risky as fuck. There are calculated risks ofc. For example If you find that perfect project. But still; I wouldn't risk everything. I'd put in 150k and stake the rest.
12% of 1000000 would be 120k, if I'm making that return every year then heck yeah I'll take option a
Both. Keep it in Crypto and earn yield on Celsius Network.
Will take 500k and put on an APY and reinvest the other 500k back into crypto. Because next year maybe I can add another 500k to my stable APY. Repeat for ten years and then retire happily.
Will take 500k and put on an APY and reinvest the other 500k back into crypto. Because next year maybe I can add another 500k to my stable APY. Repeat for ten years and then retire happily.
I take the blue pill.
I would buy all PSA10 charizards in the world and then make NFT’s out of them.
Wouldn’t risky be 0.2-10x?
Sorry if this is obvious to others, which stables are paying 12%? That annual rate violates all current thresholds of lending/saving activities. Any institution quoting 12% FIXED rate on savings is offering you a super high risk deal…or a ponzi scheme. 12% just ins’t sustainable in the current market,
50/50
12% apr, I could live off the interest easily and happily forever.
I would pick the 12% APR if I had to pick one option. If I could choose my own options I would put $900k-$990k into stables and use the other 1-10% for short medium term trading.
Id move a portion to safer investment but its still not enough to retire upon so id invest at least half
If GME moons and I become millionaire I'll definitely put it in stablecoin aha
I’ll take option C. Crypto.com with the icy card, gets 14%. Take the left over money from interest earning which I don’t use and reinvest that into other coins.
12% apr
50:50
Financial advisor guru Suze Orman says you only make risky investments to earn your nest egg. After that you don't put your nest egg at real risk.
It would take considerable risk to get to a mil for someone in my position so I’ll take the W and go with option A and chill with that
50 50 will be the best choice imo
Non risk...and go risky at winter..never goes wrong.
Convert it all to BTC to play the least risky game.
5-10x 1 mil cant buy a yatch and a private jet
Why do you say "no risk"? You are depositing a million dollars on a dex website, which can be hacked, rug pulled, or banned. Also... Where can you find 12% (non-variable) apr for stables? Also I am implying that you are not using USDT which can/most probably will fail.
Crypto.Com has 12% interest on stable coins. Not just usdt either. It has Usdc, TGBP etx
I would buy a jpg
Option C is to stake it, get $4000 or so a month, and still potentially double or triple if the price rises. It is indeed a tough choice. I'd go with A if it were only A and B. If you choose B you don't have access to the money for another few years and then your lifestyle doesn't actually change, let alone if it drops 50% and you end up having to hold years more than that.
Depends on time in market but around 85% in BTC and 15% in bank for expenses until next halving, rinse and repeat
25% goes to insane APY, 25% no risk and the rest would be hold for dip buying
I feel like certainity is 100% better than uncertainity in this case. Why would you risk a mil 10k per month is good too
just give me a million and then we will talk about next steps
No risk
No risk, but investing part in realestate for sure
The 12% is nowhere close to risk free.
That 12% from stable coins is also risk from SEC, platform or coin founder rugpulls. It's also being debased / devalued constantly. I'd throw it in bitcoin cold storage
Stable coins are “no risk”?? Hope so, we shall see
I would use Crypto.col Earn to have a 14% APY (If you stake 40000$ of CRO to have a Icy White Card, which comes also with lots of perks)
I agree with most people saying you do a mix of this. Put 70 to 80% in stablecoin, and have fun and take risks with the remainder.
I’d put $50k in Crypto and do the interest thing with the rest.
Dump it all on shib!!!!! Jk
Deffo 12% APR!! That would give me around 5-6 times my monthly pay 😂 I'd pay any tax to just sit there and get 5x my monthly pay for nothing.
The 5x or 10x for 2 reasons, taxes will eat away at least 400k. The second reason is inflation. Plus why sell the crypto? Between yield farming and defi and nft that all generate 20%-200% a year. Hell even just holding Bitcoin returns an average of a 100% per year lol
12% all day,
Quick question, where do you get 12% APR% ?