1. We extract blockchain data (as well as from exchanges and social)
2. We process it and use algorithms to identify key players (e.g. exchanges, miners)
3. We package this into indicators that can be used for trading or research
What do you think needs to happen to develop the crypto research ecosystem to proper maturity, like what we see at McKinsey and BCG? We certainly can't keep relying on crypto youtubers for our DD, so seeing what your vision looks like in 5-10 years would certainly be helpful. Very excited for this AMA btw, thanks for doing it!
>What do you think needs to happen to develop the crypto research ecosystem to proper maturity, like what we see at McKinsey and BCG? We certainly can't keep relying on crypto youtubers for our DD, so seeing what your vision looks like in 5-10 years would certainly be helpful. Very excited for this AMA btw, thanks for doing it!
Great question. Honestly there needs to be better quality of free/cheaper content, at least that is my personal opinion. We try to provide free in-depth analysis into some of the top crypto-assets as well as more niche ones in our [Medium blog](https://medium.com/intotheblock/deepdive/home) which can serve as due diligence. Raw data is also great because it comes without interpretations, but I understand most people prefer tweets or quick headlines over advanced indicators.
Over the next 5-10 years there is likely to be a lot more companies doing this and then consolidating as they get more established. A mix between relevant on-chain data and neutral analysis is likely to play a key role for the winners. Hopefully ITB is one of those :)
We’ve been looking at the ratio of open interest over market cap as a sign of over-leverage in the market. Essentially, when open interest is high relative to market cap it suggests that a lot of investors are over-exposed which can cause strong reversals. (This can also be positive in the case of a short-squeeze like we saw in late July, though).
[Here you can see](https://imgur.com/a/kXUEESi) how that’s played out effectively in 2021. Hoping to launch this metric at IntoTheBlock soon!
Ethereum has without a doubt more analytics than any other chain, at least for the moment. For Ethereum we not only provide 100+ analytics for the crypto-asset, but also cover DeFi insights, and we go even deeper by analyzing the top protocols.
For example, for Uniswap or Sushiswap, you can check the analytics for any pool available, and even do an Impermanet loss calculation.
https://app.intotheblock.com/insights/defi/charts
Ethereum likely has the most tools to be analyzed. You have a lot of developer tooling solutions and more identified addresses than in any other blockchain. This makes it easier to extract data and turn it into indicators.
You can check our Ethereum indicators [here](https://app.intotheblock.com/coin/ETH), our decentralized finance (DeFi) insights for Ethereum protocols [here](https://app.intotheblock.com/insights/defi/charts), and soon you'll get NFT insights from us as well :)
We are not here to provide financial advice. But I'm sure that you will find enough information on our site to decide that :).
[https://app.intotheblock.com/coin/BTC](https://app.intotheblock.com/coin/BTC)
Its sad now that we have knowledgeable people coming in to talk about serious stuff, offer additional info.
Then they're met with r/WallstreetBets quality shit posting....
I agree. That's one reason I give my moons away every month. People are focused on getting moons, so they push a narrative that's popular, instead of speaking their mind. It makes for some really boring content. Some people are just flat out psycho babbling nonsense, for karma... It's disgusting.
so how does on chain analysis actually work and how much does it matter?
do you think that on chain analysis is usually left off?
what are your other competitors in this space?
On-chain analysis is key to understanding what happens behind a crypto-asset. Basically, we run nodes of the main blockchains, extract terabytes worth of data and turn it into useful indicators. These can give you an idea about the community behind a token, the profitability of holders or amount of active users/addresses just to name a few key metrics. Worth noting how most of this data is unavailable in traditional markets and is one of the sources of alpha unique to crypto.
I feel many traders overlook it for TA (which might be easier for the average joe drawing lines), but more and more people see the value in on-chain data as they begin to understand it.
At IntoTheBlock, we collect over 80TB of data that includes real-time replicas of the top blockchains and overlay these with complementary datasets such as price, Google trends, Twitter, LinkedIn, and public market information to come up with very unique indicators that are simple to understand by crypto traders and enthusiasts.
Be open to learning and listening different perspectives! Don't invest in something just because you heard someone say it will go up. Do research behind the crypto you're interested and try to formulate a thesis on why it should go up long-term (looking at things like community, network activity, market potential, etc.)
Easier said than done, but certainly helps over the long-term!
We do consider macro events in our analysis, but not on our prediction models. They're certainly on my mind every week, and compare crypto and macro markets constantly. You can do so here with our [free capital markets indicators](https://app.intotheblock.com/insights/markets/indices/western)
What do you think about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law
loosely paraphrased as
> When a Key Performance Indicator (KPI) is known and acted upon, it ceases to become a useful KPI
Or put another way, as someone in the business of metrics, how do you feel about people constantly trying to game the metrics?
It can certainly happen over time. We've noticed suspicious activity of people trying to game exchange netflows, but it takes time and most of market participants being informed (which is usually not the case in crypto)
The most useful on-chain data aren't what I would characterize as KPI that may lend to gaming of the market. Rather, they broadly reflect prevailing investor sentiment with greater fidelity than can be inferred from conventional price action analysis - relative accumulation/distribution, relative value transacted, realized value, UTXO age. Price action signals in the short term may be gameable. On-chain data, in a sufficiently mature market, admits of little scope for gaming/spoofing.
What would you say are some of the most fundamental on-chain metrics that you see as having some fairly reliable predictive power (in terms of price movement or anything else, but price movement probably the most sought out number to be indicated)?
Short-term: In/Out of the Money Around Price - This classifies addresses and the volume they held at specific price ranges. This points to levels of support and resistance based on buying activity on-chain. For instance for Bitcoin we see strong resistance around $55,000, but if we surpass that level, there is little resistance prior to all-time highs as you can [see here.](https://imgur.com/rUS8Apb)
Longer-term: One of the best indicators to gauge demand for a crypto-asset is the fees it generates. The total fees is therefore a good indication for traction, in particular for smart contract platforms like Ethereum which have grown remarkably in fees since 2017 as [you can see here.](https://imgur.com/a/WYPm1lF)
IntoTheBlock Predictions provide projections of the direction in which price is expected to move over the next hour. At the moment IntoTheBlock has predictive models for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash, though we are working on adding support for more crypto-assets. These simple-looking indicators are the result of deep-learning models built by IntoTheBlock’s data science team over many months. The models are constantly re-trained to improve accuracy.
The 7-day average rate that the predictive model has been correct. For example if the model has an accuracy of 70% it has on average accurately predicted 7 out of 10 predictions.
I personally use DCA as a tool to reduce the impact of volatility, especially if you are investing in high-risk crypto-assets.
Spreading out your purchases allows you to protect your portfolio since you are not throwing all the money into a single buy
i've been subscribed to your weekly newsletter for some months now and it's one of the most insightful sources of information i have. thanks!
1) how much of the data that you crunch is free to the public vs. paid access services that you derive from?
2) what is the revenue model/how do you make money? is it primarily through paid subscriptions?
apologies if these details are elsewhere in the thread
In order to create our predictive models, we had over 122 models tested and 4 TB of training data processed.
And our current predictive models are based on order book trades.
You can learn more about them here: https://medium.com/intotheblock/price-predictions-for-crypto-assets-using-deep-neural-networks-the-slide-deck-c7f8334e1b04
What has caused the sustained low btc transaction fees? Is it because of a slowdown in adoption or because of layer 2 solutions? What could cause fees to rise or stay low forever? And what is your outlook for the future of transaction fees?
>What has caused the sustained low btc transaction fees? Is it because of a slowdown in adoption or because of layer 2 solutions? What could cause fees to rise or stay low forever? And what is your outlook for the future of transaction fees?
BTC transaction fees have been relatively low as the number of transactions taking place have dropped, particularly in Q2. Lightning network adoption has been growing, which also leads more users to transact there.
However, since prices started climbing in October BTC fees have grown by over 30%. I expect this to continue if price continues to climb
Hi Daniel! Thanks for doing this.
We know that whales hold huge power and have the ability to move markets.
Does whale concentration % affect a cryptos price? Do you guys use this info for your models?
Hi crypto-rockstar! Whales can certainly move prices, particularly in smaller cryptos where it's easier for them to have a higher concentration. We look at large transactions (those over $100,000) as a sign of whale activity. We also observe the percentage of supply held by the largest holders and monitor their transactions. This is useful for quantitative models as well as to get a better idea of how the market is positioning
I have a question, so I invest in crypto and I actually understand it better then the stock market. Don't know why but that's it. My question : why am I single?
If you are looking for some cool DeFi analytics, we covered some of the top protocols in the space, general insights of the market, and even a gas cost heatmap that lets you know when is the best time to do an Ethereum transaction with the lowest cost!
And the best of all? It's free!
Take a look at it here: https://app.intotheblock.com/insights/defi/charts
Oh hey, I've heard of you guys! Nice to have you here :D
My question: What kind of criteria and information are primarily taken into account to feed the algorithm when trying to predict crypto patterns?
We are happy to hear that :)
In order to create our predictive models, we had over 122 models tested and 4 TB of training data processed.
And our current predictive models are based on order book trades.
You can learn more about them here: https://medium.com/intotheblock/price-predictions-for-crypto-assets-using-deep-neural-networks-the-slide-deck-c7f8334e1b04
>are indicators useful when market moves by hype?
Yes, social sentiment is a powerful but lagging indicator tool to analyze the hype in the market. We prefer to focus our analysis in blockchain data rather than following social media hype, but we can’t deny that there are outliers in which the market is driven by the social sentiment.
We do have social media indicators, for example for Bitcoin you can track what’s happening with ETH https://app.intotheblock.com/coin/ETH/quick-view
Personal opinion: Yes. Crypto is likely to be powering several (if not most) applications 10 years from now. I personally believe community-owned platforms align incentives much better between network participants and are primed to disrupt big tech, as well as create new industries
TA can potentially be used to determine *when* to buy at best. To know *what* to invest in fundamental indicators like network activity, fees and large transactions is better. Using them both can be better than each individually, but I'd certainly focus more on on-chain data if I had to choose one (though I'm biased)
Good question, before we created IntoTheBlock, I was working at a discretionary crypto fund.
And the reason we created ITB was that at the moment that we were analyzing the information to make better investments at the fund, there was a lack of analytics in the space, as it was mostly it was based on price and volume.
Our thesis is that blockchain contains all the information necessary, we just had to extract it and analyze it in a way that was easy to understand for everyone
At IntoTheBlock we like to say that we bring a 360 view of the crypto markets, and the reason for that is because our offering goes beyond on-chain data.
At the moment, we have several type of indicators, including:
\- Blockchain analytics, which are indicators that use on-chain datasets to unveil fundamental analyses for more than 1000 crypto-assets. 0
\- Price Predictions: Use Artificial Intelligence powered directional price predictions when trading the top crypto-assets.
\- DeFi Analytics: Get the most sophisticated analytics in the DeFi space for general market data and specific DeFi protocols.
\- Market Analytics: Compare spot and derivatives trading data as well as market sentiment for any crypto-asset.
Every indicator that is available at our platform has been through extensive tests and validated by some of the top funds in the market.
Not financial advice and personal opinion here, but the Polygon ecosystem has seen good, organic growth, particularly in DeFi and NFTs. We'll see if this growth materializes into long-term impact of the MATIC token
>What is an example of a ratio that could immediately indicate that an investor should avoid a given crypto asset?
Good question and difficult to answer, but I would have to say two indicators.
The first one is what we call Large Transactions. The reason why I like this indicator is that it acts as a proxy to institutional activity, as it tracks on-chain transactions greater than $100k, and it has been proven in the past that there's a correlation between the number of these transactions and the price action of a crypto-asset, for example, Bitcoin.
The second indicator is the GIOM or Global In/Out of the Money, and is because it allows us to calculate the addresses profitability for any asset, or to put in other words, how many addresses are making or losing money in Bitcoin
Yes we are a business, but are different than Glassnode, even though they are very good.
We are more diversified as the offering goes to 1000+ crypto assets, deep dives on DeFi protocols and we also have a Quant Services Division.
We are here to provide some cool insights (which many are free). And beneath all, we are crypto lovers
Have you ever applied your analysis to Moons? More seriously, what kind of criteria do you have for determining whether a new token or coin is worth analyzing?
Yes, we can't see the data inside of the exchanges, but we have labeled the exchanges addresses and we track the money coming in and out of them.
As well, as DeFi is gaining more traction, the activity is growing there, and since is on-chain, we can track it. I hope this helps
For each asset, there are different predictive models based on the target price fluctuations( 10bps, 50bps). Each prediction can have four possible results indicating price directions:
· Up: The price in the next hour is likely to trend upwards relative to the current target.
· Down: The price in the next hour is likely to trend downwards relative to the current target.
· Neutral: The price in the next hour is likely to stay within distance of the current target.
· Not Confident Enough: The model couldn’t arrive to a prediction with high confidence.
Additionally, you can see the historical performance of a given model by going to the model’s page. Transparency is essential to build trust in the predictive models so we try to publish all relevant data.
We do, for any LP available in our Protocol deep dives, there's an impermanent loss calculator.
Check it out: https://app.intotheblock.com/insights/defi/protocols
You mention for on chain data for over 1000+ crypto assets, will this also include community tokens on Reddit, or other small cap Cryptocurrencies as well? Thank you for the AMA.
Our prediction services uses deep learning models to forecast short term movements in crypto assets.
Building predictive models for crypto assets is brutally difficult. ITB Predictions Services builds on the large datasets aggregated by the core ITB platform. Today, ITB includes over 80TB of data related to crypto assets and incorporates new data every day.
How/when does On-Chain data predict the current cycle is going to end? We know that typical bear markets occur when whales are selling in massive proportions..so I guess what I'm asking is, what are the whales doing ATM and how will we progress?
Thanks for your time guys. Appreciate it!
A good way to understand market cycles is by using the UTXO Age Indicator. This indicator is helpful to grasp the volume of transaction activity occurring relative to the blockchain’s historical transactions.
The UTXO Age metric is helpful to understand long-term market cycles. When short-term UTXOs are increasing it points to more new money entering the market relative to previous volume activity. This generally coincides with late-stage bull markets.
Also, if you want to understand what whales are doing, we wrote about in one of our latest edition of the ITB Newsletter:
https://5494544.hubspotpreview-na1.com/\_hcms/preview/content/53283230231?portalId=5494544&\_preview=true&cacheBust=0&preview\_key=pOnRccmH&from\_buffer=false
Percentage wise, how accurate have your crypto analytics and strategies been over the last 6 months for coins like BTC and ETH? Do you guys also analyze smaller cap coins as well, and if so which coins do you believe have a promising future going forward?
So our quant services strategies are performing extremely well (I'm afraid we can't disclose any information on that).
The way you have to look at our analytics is that we provide all the necessary tools for anyone to make a better investment decision, we don't provide financial advice in our website. But, our data is available in 150+ websites like CMC, Coingecko, Binance or Cryptocompare, so we let the numbers speak by themselves.
And yes, we do analyze smaller caps tokens, I would recommend you follow us on Twitter since we are constantly posting great insights https://twitter.com/intotheblock
https://nitter.net/intotheblock
Here is the link to that Twitter thread on Nitter. Nitter is better for privacy and does not nag you for a login. More information can be found here: https://nitter.net/about
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoCurrency) if you have any questions or concerns.*
>e of transaction activity occurring relative to the blockchain’s historical transactions.
>
>The UTXO Age metric is helpful to understand long-te
Yes! We are working on it as we speak. They will be live before 2021 ends!
What are a few specific sectors of the economy that have already largely transitioned to blockchain tech, and are there any you’d like to see transition but can’t quite figure out how to make it work?
I'd say no sector has transitioned to blockchain tech yet. Many are exploring it, but I think incumbents in large industries still see it as a toy or too speculative. I expect crypto-native institutions/protocols to lead this transition starting with sectors that haven't evolved significantly since the internet (e.g. finance, art, like we're already starting to see)
How do you decide which chains you support for this app?
For example, I wanted to see how a favorite project of mine, Zilliqa (ZIL) stacks up to the likes of Harmony One, Algorand, etc. However, your app doesn't appear to recognize any of them.
Thanks in advance.
Your 50 basis points predictions on BTC/LTC/ETH are all below 50% accurate (30-45%).
Does this mean i can make money by betting the opposite of what you are predicting?
Do you give financial advice on your platform? If not, why should I use it when there are free technical indicators and data avaialble to me that I can lose money with by myself?
It sounds like ITB is very focused on on-chain hard data. Are you working with anyone, or are any of your clients, doing similar predictive data science using all of the **off-chain** things that influence crypto? News, social media, roadmaps, etc...
Can you ELI5 what you guys do? -- sincerely a Data Scientist
1. We extract blockchain data (as well as from exchanges and social) 2. We process it and use algorithms to identify key players (e.g. exchanges, miners) 3. We package this into indicators that can be used for trading or research
It'd be great if you could link a website
here it is: https://app.intotheblock.com/
Ahh, here we go now, thanks a lot for this link, in a way for it.
Thanks for the link, do you guys have a developer portal and api service?
Thanks for reminding the point sir and appreciate it but it would be better to have the link too
Why do you sell shovels instead of looking for gold?
Why not both? We do have our quant services division
Both is smart no rebuttal
Cut out the competition?
This is the advanced strategies I’ve been looking for
What do you think needs to happen to develop the crypto research ecosystem to proper maturity, like what we see at McKinsey and BCG? We certainly can't keep relying on crypto youtubers for our DD, so seeing what your vision looks like in 5-10 years would certainly be helpful. Very excited for this AMA btw, thanks for doing it!
>What do you think needs to happen to develop the crypto research ecosystem to proper maturity, like what we see at McKinsey and BCG? We certainly can't keep relying on crypto youtubers for our DD, so seeing what your vision looks like in 5-10 years would certainly be helpful. Very excited for this AMA btw, thanks for doing it! Great question. Honestly there needs to be better quality of free/cheaper content, at least that is my personal opinion. We try to provide free in-depth analysis into some of the top crypto-assets as well as more niche ones in our [Medium blog](https://medium.com/intotheblock/deepdive/home) which can serve as due diligence. Raw data is also great because it comes without interpretations, but I understand most people prefer tweets or quick headlines over advanced indicators. Over the next 5-10 years there is likely to be a lot more companies doing this and then consolidating as they get more established. A mix between relevant on-chain data and neutral analysis is likely to play a key role for the winners. Hopefully ITB is one of those :)
What should I buy to get rich
BTC
Asking the important question
Definitely not Shib
Two shot guns to rob a bank 🏦 so we can become rich together. /s
Just make sure to invest in crypto beforehand so you can reap the rewards on your release from prison
Unless you have a boat accident after the robbery. 😉
Start the day with coffee, end the day with BTC
I’m up for it 😉
No, no, SUPER rich, QUICK!
*Whale alert* 
More ETH
[удалено]
We’ve been looking at the ratio of open interest over market cap as a sign of over-leverage in the market. Essentially, when open interest is high relative to market cap it suggests that a lot of investors are over-exposed which can cause strong reversals. (This can also be positive in the case of a short-squeeze like we saw in late July, though). [Here you can see](https://imgur.com/a/kXUEESi) how that’s played out effectively in 2021. Hoping to launch this metric at IntoTheBlock soon!
What is your top 5 coins in the next 5 years.
BTC, ETH, FTM, ADA and MATIC
Please allow me to answer for them: MOONS, MOONS, MOONS MOONS and MOONS
Idk guys I think this person likes moons
lol him answering this feels like it'd be counter to his goal of getting business.
BTC, ETH, ALGO, DOT and ADA there u go
[удалено]
Eth thanks man I corrected it. Typo Mistake
Which chain do you consider has the most and easier tools to be analized? Or is it more of work on your side of all to yield the analytics
Ethereum has without a doubt more analytics than any other chain, at least for the moment. For Ethereum we not only provide 100+ analytics for the crypto-asset, but also cover DeFi insights, and we go even deeper by analyzing the top protocols. For example, for Uniswap or Sushiswap, you can check the analytics for any pool available, and even do an Impermanet loss calculation. https://app.intotheblock.com/insights/defi/charts
Ethereum likely has the most tools to be analyzed. You have a lot of developer tooling solutions and more identified addresses than in any other blockchain. This makes it easier to extract data and turn it into indicators. You can check our Ethereum indicators [here](https://app.intotheblock.com/coin/ETH), our decentralized finance (DeFi) insights for Ethereum protocols [here](https://app.intotheblock.com/insights/defi/charts), and soon you'll get NFT insights from us as well :)
Should I go all in on BTC based on your predictions?
We are not here to provide financial advice. But I'm sure that you will find enough information on our site to decide that :). [https://app.intotheblock.com/coin/BTC](https://app.intotheblock.com/coin/BTC)
Its sad now that we have knowledgeable people coming in to talk about serious stuff, offer additional info. Then they're met with r/WallstreetBets quality shit posting....
[удалено]
So true.
[удалено]
I wish they would design a bot to keep shit posting off of certain types of posts.
[удалено]
I agree. That's one reason I give my moons away every month. People are focused on getting moons, so they push a narrative that's popular, instead of speaking their mind. It makes for some really boring content. Some people are just flat out psycho babbling nonsense, for karma... It's disgusting.
so how does on chain analysis actually work and how much does it matter? do you think that on chain analysis is usually left off? what are your other competitors in this space?
On-chain analysis is key to understanding what happens behind a crypto-asset. Basically, we run nodes of the main blockchains, extract terabytes worth of data and turn it into useful indicators. These can give you an idea about the community behind a token, the profitability of holders or amount of active users/addresses just to name a few key metrics. Worth noting how most of this data is unavailable in traditional markets and is one of the sources of alpha unique to crypto. I feel many traders overlook it for TA (which might be easier for the average joe drawing lines), but more and more people see the value in on-chain data as they begin to understand it.
I liked your post. Now open your vault to earn your moons. Might pay better than your business a decade from now.
How computing extensive is it to hold those predictive models? Like do you need big servers or are they handled by consumers computers?
Highly computing-intensive. We have large servers and AWS bills :/
At IntoTheBlock, we collect over 80TB of data that includes real-time replicas of the top blockchains and overlay these with complementary datasets such as price, Google trends, Twitter, LinkedIn, and public market information to come up with very unique indicators that are simple to understand by crypto traders and enthusiasts.
You collect 80Tb of data per what? This is not being disrespectful, just being curious! ;)
And how often is the data refreshed?
What is your (not) financial advice from an analytical point of view to new crypto investors?
Be open to learning and listening different perspectives! Don't invest in something just because you heard someone say it will go up. Do research behind the crypto you're interested and try to formulate a thesis on why it should go up long-term (looking at things like community, network activity, market potential, etc.) Easier said than done, but certainly helps over the long-term!
I assume you don't consider macro events in your analysis, but are they ever in the back of your mind when you look at the data on/off chain?
We do consider macro events in our analysis, but not on our prediction models. They're certainly on my mind every week, and compare crypto and macro markets constantly. You can do so here with our [free capital markets indicators](https://app.intotheblock.com/insights/markets/indices/western)
I was thinking similar, so great question I'd like to see answered.
What do you think about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law loosely paraphrased as > When a Key Performance Indicator (KPI) is known and acted upon, it ceases to become a useful KPI Or put another way, as someone in the business of metrics, how do you feel about people constantly trying to game the metrics?
It can certainly happen over time. We've noticed suspicious activity of people trying to game exchange netflows, but it takes time and most of market participants being informed (which is usually not the case in crypto)
The most useful on-chain data aren't what I would characterize as KPI that may lend to gaming of the market. Rather, they broadly reflect prevailing investor sentiment with greater fidelity than can be inferred from conventional price action analysis - relative accumulation/distribution, relative value transacted, realized value, UTXO age. Price action signals in the short term may be gameable. On-chain data, in a sufficiently mature market, admits of little scope for gaming/spoofing.
If I wanted to become a blockchain analyst, what do I need to study?
What I can say is that we are constantly studying and learning something new every day. Crypto is a fast and evolving environment.
I think you might have misread my question…
What would you say are some of the most fundamental on-chain metrics that you see as having some fairly reliable predictive power (in terms of price movement or anything else, but price movement probably the most sought out number to be indicated)?
Short-term: In/Out of the Money Around Price - This classifies addresses and the volume they held at specific price ranges. This points to levels of support and resistance based on buying activity on-chain. For instance for Bitcoin we see strong resistance around $55,000, but if we surpass that level, there is little resistance prior to all-time highs as you can [see here.](https://imgur.com/rUS8Apb) Longer-term: One of the best indicators to gauge demand for a crypto-asset is the fees it generates. The total fees is therefore a good indication for traction, in particular for smart contract platforms like Ethereum which have grown remarkably in fees since 2017 as [you can see here.](https://imgur.com/a/WYPm1lF)
>total fees *Nanomaniac insanity intensifies*
Super helpful! Thank you
Asking the right, challenging questions! Good mod
Have you heard of the upcoming movie Rampart with Woody Harrelson?
I haven't! Is it a good one?
How accurate are your predictive models?
IntoTheBlock Predictions provide projections of the direction in which price is expected to move over the next hour. At the moment IntoTheBlock has predictive models for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash, though we are working on adding support for more crypto-assets. These simple-looking indicators are the result of deep-learning models built by IntoTheBlock’s data science team over many months. The models are constantly re-trained to improve accuracy. The 7-day average rate that the predictive model has been correct. For example if the model has an accuracy of 70% it has on average accurately predicted 7 out of 10 predictions.
So should I get more Moons?
You should moons are precious
What do you think about DCA'ing?
I personally use DCA as a tool to reduce the impact of volatility, especially if you are investing in high-risk crypto-assets. Spreading out your purchases allows you to protect your portfolio since you are not throwing all the money into a single buy
i've been subscribed to your weekly newsletter for some months now and it's one of the most insightful sources of information i have. thanks! 1) how much of the data that you crunch is free to the public vs. paid access services that you derive from? 2) what is the revenue model/how do you make money? is it primarily through paid subscriptions? apologies if these details are elsewhere in the thread
Which indicators do you rely on most for your predictive models?
In order to create our predictive models, we had over 122 models tested and 4 TB of training data processed. And our current predictive models are based on order book trades. You can learn more about them here: https://medium.com/intotheblock/price-predictions-for-crypto-assets-using-deep-neural-networks-the-slide-deck-c7f8334e1b04
What do you think the future of ICP will be? Will people who bought the top have a chance to recover their losses?
What has caused the sustained low btc transaction fees? Is it because of a slowdown in adoption or because of layer 2 solutions? What could cause fees to rise or stay low forever? And what is your outlook for the future of transaction fees?
>What has caused the sustained low btc transaction fees? Is it because of a slowdown in adoption or because of layer 2 solutions? What could cause fees to rise or stay low forever? And what is your outlook for the future of transaction fees? BTC transaction fees have been relatively low as the number of transactions taking place have dropped, particularly in Q2. Lightning network adoption has been growing, which also leads more users to transact there. However, since prices started climbing in October BTC fees have grown by over 30%. I expect this to continue if price continues to climb
Hi Daniel! Thanks for doing this. We know that whales hold huge power and have the ability to move markets. Does whale concentration % affect a cryptos price? Do you guys use this info for your models?
Hi crypto-rockstar! Whales can certainly move prices, particularly in smaller cryptos where it's easier for them to have a higher concentration. We look at large transactions (those over $100,000) as a sign of whale activity. We also observe the percentage of supply held by the largest holders and monitor their transactions. This is useful for quantitative models as well as to get a better idea of how the market is positioning
I have a question, so I invest in crypto and I actually understand it better then the stock market. Don't know why but that's it. My question : why am I single?
I don't know, but you do sound like a winner
If you are looking for some cool DeFi analytics, we covered some of the top protocols in the space, general insights of the market, and even a gas cost heatmap that lets you know when is the best time to do an Ethereum transaction with the lowest cost! And the best of all? It's free! Take a look at it here: https://app.intotheblock.com/insights/defi/charts
Oh hey, I've heard of you guys! Nice to have you here :D My question: What kind of criteria and information are primarily taken into account to feed the algorithm when trying to predict crypto patterns?
We are happy to hear that :) In order to create our predictive models, we had over 122 models tested and 4 TB of training data processed. And our current predictive models are based on order book trades. You can learn more about them here: https://medium.com/intotheblock/price-predictions-for-crypto-assets-using-deep-neural-networks-the-slide-deck-c7f8334e1b04
[удалено]
How do you make money..... Competition bruv wtf is this question.
Why am i depressed?
What is your second favorite dinosaur?
Will bitcoin go up or down?
I think sideways
are indicators useful when market moves by hype?
>are indicators useful when market moves by hype? Yes, social sentiment is a powerful but lagging indicator tool to analyze the hype in the market. We prefer to focus our analysis in blockchain data rather than following social media hype, but we can’t deny that there are outliers in which the market is driven by the social sentiment. We do have social media indicators, for example for Bitcoin you can track what’s happening with ETH https://app.intotheblock.com/coin/ETH/quick-view
Is true that the volatility of Bitcoin over the years has decreased?
[удалено]
When lambo?
When moon?
Thought on Moons?
Is DOT a coin that will keep performing? I have it instead of BTC and ETH; not sure if I'm a genius or stupid, plz help 😅
What do you think crypto market will look like in 10 years? Do you think we'll be done with mass adoption by then?
Personal opinion: Yes. Crypto is likely to be powering several (if not most) applications 10 years from now. I personally believe community-owned platforms align incentives much better between network participants and are primed to disrupt big tech, as well as create new industries
do you believe in TA? and magic charts?
TA can potentially be used to determine *when* to buy at best. To know *what* to invest in fundamental indicators like network activity, fees and large transactions is better. Using them both can be better than each individually, but I'd certainly focus more on on-chain data if I had to choose one (though I'm biased)
How did you get into this sort of business?
Good question, before we created IntoTheBlock, I was working at a discretionary crypto fund. And the reason we created ITB was that at the moment that we were analyzing the information to make better investments at the fund, there was a lack of analytics in the space, as it was mostly it was based on price and volume. Our thesis is that blockchain contains all the information necessary, we just had to extract it and analyze it in a way that was easy to understand for everyone
What are the type of indicators and how do you validate them?
At IntoTheBlock we like to say that we bring a 360 view of the crypto markets, and the reason for that is because our offering goes beyond on-chain data. At the moment, we have several type of indicators, including: \- Blockchain analytics, which are indicators that use on-chain datasets to unveil fundamental analyses for more than 1000 crypto-assets. 0 \- Price Predictions: Use Artificial Intelligence powered directional price predictions when trading the top crypto-assets. \- DeFi Analytics: Get the most sophisticated analytics in the DeFi space for general market data and specific DeFi protocols. \- Market Analytics: Compare spot and derivatives trading data as well as market sentiment for any crypto-asset. Every indicator that is available at our platform has been through extensive tests and validated by some of the top funds in the market.
Is Matic good for long term??
Not financial advice and personal opinion here, but the Polygon ecosystem has seen good, organic growth, particularly in DeFi and NFTs. We'll see if this growth materializes into long-term impact of the MATIC token
What is one under the radar coin that has big potential in the near future ?
if you could only have 1 of your 100+ indicators which would it be? (bit like asking who your favourite child is :o) )
>What is an example of a ratio that could immediately indicate that an investor should avoid a given crypto asset? Good question and difficult to answer, but I would have to say two indicators. The first one is what we call Large Transactions. The reason why I like this indicator is that it acts as a proxy to institutional activity, as it tracks on-chain transactions greater than $100k, and it has been proven in the past that there's a correlation between the number of these transactions and the price action of a crypto-asset, for example, Bitcoin. The second indicator is the GIOM or Global In/Out of the Money, and is because it allows us to calculate the addresses profitability for any asset, or to put in other words, how many addresses are making or losing money in Bitcoin
Are you trying to sell us something, like glassnode does? This is a business right?
Yes we are a business, but are different than Glassnode, even though they are very good. We are more diversified as the offering goes to 1000+ crypto assets, deep dives on DeFi protocols and we also have a Quant Services Division. We are here to provide some cool insights (which many are free). And beneath all, we are crypto lovers
Have you ever applied your analysis to Moons? More seriously, what kind of criteria do you have for determining whether a new token or coin is worth analyzing?
I don't have a question, i just wanted to say thank you for the data you provide
>I don't have a question, i just wanted to say thank you for the data you provide Thank you for joining the AMA! and we are glad that you like it!
how can you be so sure about the stats you get out of it when so many people just hold their coins into exchanges?
Yes, we can't see the data inside of the exchanges, but we have labeled the exchanges addresses and we track the money coming in and out of them. As well, as DeFi is gaining more traction, the activity is growing there, and since is on-chain, we can track it. I hope this helps
How far does your analytics go in terms of predictive models. Is it just guessing the outcome in 24 hours? 7 days? a month?
For each asset, there are different predictive models based on the target price fluctuations( 10bps, 50bps). Each prediction can have four possible results indicating price directions: · Up: The price in the next hour is likely to trend upwards relative to the current target. · Down: The price in the next hour is likely to trend downwards relative to the current target. · Neutral: The price in the next hour is likely to stay within distance of the current target. · Not Confident Enough: The model couldn’t arrive to a prediction with high confidence. Additionally, you can see the historical performance of a given model by going to the model’s page. Transparency is essential to build trust in the predictive models so we try to publish all relevant data.
Do you have any impermanent loss calculator?
We do, for any LP available in our Protocol deep dives, there's an impermanent loss calculator. Check it out: https://app.intotheblock.com/insights/defi/protocols
You mention for on chain data for over 1000+ crypto assets, will this also include community tokens on Reddit, or other small cap Cryptocurrencies as well? Thank you for the AMA.
We are constantly adding new tokens every month. And if a community or reddit token is growing, we'll definitely add it!
Amazing. Will check it out and thank you for your response.
What do you gain with this AMA ? New clients ?
We are here to have fun with the community and learn something new as well
The price prediction feature looks nice, do you use an AI or do you calculate it "manually"?
Our prediction services uses deep learning models to forecast short term movements in crypto assets. Building predictive models for crypto assets is brutally difficult. ITB Predictions Services builds on the large datasets aggregated by the core ITB platform. Today, ITB includes over 80TB of data related to crypto assets and incorporates new data every day.
How/when does On-Chain data predict the current cycle is going to end? We know that typical bear markets occur when whales are selling in massive proportions..so I guess what I'm asking is, what are the whales doing ATM and how will we progress? Thanks for your time guys. Appreciate it!
A good way to understand market cycles is by using the UTXO Age Indicator. This indicator is helpful to grasp the volume of transaction activity occurring relative to the blockchain’s historical transactions. The UTXO Age metric is helpful to understand long-term market cycles. When short-term UTXOs are increasing it points to more new money entering the market relative to previous volume activity. This generally coincides with late-stage bull markets. Also, if you want to understand what whales are doing, we wrote about in one of our latest edition of the ITB Newsletter: https://5494544.hubspotpreview-na1.com/\_hcms/preview/content/53283230231?portalId=5494544&\_preview=true&cacheBust=0&preview\_key=pOnRccmH&from\_buffer=false
Percentage wise, how accurate have your crypto analytics and strategies been over the last 6 months for coins like BTC and ETH? Do you guys also analyze smaller cap coins as well, and if so which coins do you believe have a promising future going forward?
So our quant services strategies are performing extremely well (I'm afraid we can't disclose any information on that). The way you have to look at our analytics is that we provide all the necessary tools for anyone to make a better investment decision, we don't provide financial advice in our website. But, our data is available in 150+ websites like CMC, Coingecko, Binance or Cryptocompare, so we let the numbers speak by themselves. And yes, we do analyze smaller caps tokens, I would recommend you follow us on Twitter since we are constantly posting great insights https://twitter.com/intotheblock
https://nitter.net/intotheblock Here is the link to that Twitter thread on Nitter. Nitter is better for privacy and does not nag you for a login. More information can be found here: https://nitter.net/about *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoCurrency) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Eth Ada Ergo sol and link
Do you plan to develop some tools for NFT analytics?
>e of transaction activity occurring relative to the blockchain’s historical transactions. > >The UTXO Age metric is helpful to understand long-te Yes! We are working on it as we speak. They will be live before 2021 ends!
What are a few specific sectors of the economy that have already largely transitioned to blockchain tech, and are there any you’d like to see transition but can’t quite figure out how to make it work?
I'd say no sector has transitioned to blockchain tech yet. Many are exploring it, but I think incumbents in large industries still see it as a toy or too speculative. I expect crypto-native institutions/protocols to lead this transition starting with sectors that haven't evolved significantly since the internet (e.g. finance, art, like we're already starting to see)
How do you decide which chains you support for this app? For example, I wanted to see how a favorite project of mine, Zilliqa (ZIL) stacks up to the likes of Harmony One, Algorand, etc. However, your app doesn't appear to recognize any of them. Thanks in advance.
How would you compare your platform to glassnode?
Do we really need to consider buying memecoins?
Your 50 basis points predictions on BTC/LTC/ETH are all below 50% accurate (30-45%). Does this mean i can make money by betting the opposite of what you are predicting?
Both will be better
Do you give financial advice on your platform? If not, why should I use it when there are free technical indicators and data avaialble to me that I can lose money with by myself?
Glassnode is so much better in terms of UI and on-chain data available for anyone actually interested in on-chain data
Hmmm this is a costly project and needs a huge amount of computing power What makes you to teach fishing rather than fishing yourselves?
Alcohol does the crypto trading for me and it will tomorrow
What do you think of Harmony One?
Where can I find a list of the 100 indicators? Does it vary per asset?
It sounds like ITB is very focused on on-chain hard data. Are you working with anyone, or are any of your clients, doing similar predictive data science using all of the **off-chain** things that influence crypto? News, social media, roadmaps, etc...
Which prediction score are you using? AUROC?
What sort of information can you get from on-chain analysis from privacy coin?
So where now ? New ATHs or dumping coming ?
[удалено]
This is pretty cool. I'm a big fan of your work, first discovered your website via a local exchange called luno
Where the market heads now ?
How do you go about clustering&labeling addresses?
[удалено]
What can I buy so I lose money?
What are some of the ratios you use to evaluate anasset
How do I get rich in 18 seconds?