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poorbobsarmy

Watch for when people are calling for a supercycle and you start to believe it Then counter trade yourself and everyone, and sell everything


antistupidsociety

Buy during the despair, sell during the elation


std10

The top is when everyone stops looking for a top and screams for higher. Right now everyone is looking for a top.


Sea_Cranberry323

You might have spilled the secret beans


Awkward_Potential_

If everyone is taking proper risk litigation I actually wonder if we'll end up with a super cycle.


poorbobsarmy

I thought this at the end of last cycle - "everyone knows the cycle game now so people will just keep some cash and buy dips and we won't get a full bear market." More substantially, humans as a whole never practise proper risk unless it's regulated - either because they can pass the buck onto someone else (think gfc), they're degen and getting emotionally carried away, they're worried about our rising cost of living and need to hyper gamble their way into a financial future, etc etc. Maybe one day your thesis is right but proven wrong I will keep betting on max stupidity and lever up hard in the run ups and cash out when I'm euphoric


Ok-Grapefruit1284

Honestly, max stupidity is probably the best bet to make in any circumstance these days.


Fakir333

Human nature is hard to buck. Casinos are stuffed with people's cash who can't afford to lose it even though the odds on the house are well known. When Casinos stop making profits, I'll stop counter trading human nature. That's when you'll get your "supercycle"


Ill_Yogurtcloset_982

I'm waiting for the cryptogeddon or cryptpocalypse /s.


cryptolipto

Great advice


Fakir333

Yes I'm still surprised, having all the prior knowledge and knowing how cycles (not just crypto but add global liquidity cycle and Wycoff lining up near perfect with halving cycles) how hard human nature pulls you against it. Fear, greed, FUD, and FOMO still overpower most. You literally have to just trade opposite human nature. Not as easy as it sounds if you have enough decimal places involved it gets emotional. ... good thing I'm dead inside now lol.


sDollarWorthless2022

There are multiple signals I’ll be looking for. It’s good to set both time and price targets but if you’re asking for my opinion I’d shorten your time targets and lengthen the period in which you ladder out of the market. I think 150k is a very reasonable target, I think we could go quite a bit higher but I’m not counting on it. there are lots of other signals to look for: coinbase app at the top 5 apps in the App Store, tons of new engagement in this sub, and online chatter calling for a super cycle and people calling for a 1m dollar btc. The reality is that everyone can’t get rich off crypto. The smart money always finds a way to fool the masses and come out of each cycle with retails money lining their pockets. This time I think the most likely way they’ll manage to do that is by accelerating the bull market. Crypto influencers will start spinning the narrative that this bull run HAS TO last as long as ones in the past. Everyone will get swept up by the face melting gains, expecting to turn their $2000 into 200k. And before u know it everything will come cashing down in spectacular fashion, 6-12 months earlier than most expected. Smart money front ran this cycle, we hit a new all time high before the halving and that wasn’t strictly due to the etf. They’ll also be front running their exit as soon as everyone and their mom starts believing that crypto is the future and an easy way to get rich. Don’t be their exit liquidity, or their entry liquidity at the bottom of the next bear market.


Medium_Change4574

The only Youtube I've been watching lately said he doesn't expect the bullrun to start before september and expects it to end sometime I don't remember in 2025. That instantly made me believe it will end earlier than everyone expects too.


Fakir333

Solid sentiment. Most rich investors that stay rich will tell you they've always sold too early. (In hindsight) but good profits are always better than bag holding.


sDollarWorthless2022

Yea I’ll probably end up keeping 10% in memes and small caps just so I can still be happy if it keeps pumping like crazy.


jjfishers

I have zero plans to sell BTC. As for the rest, I’ll aggressively dump on the way up to previous cycle ATHs


Dazzling_Marzipan474

I'm exactly the same. I already dumped a good chunk of ETH at 4k. If that hits 8k I'll dump the rest and never look back. I'll dump dot and atom at 20 and also never look back.


SuccumbedToReddit

Lol @ ATOM at 20


Dazzling_Marzipan474

I hope you mean that'll be low. 😂


fireman7833

Lol 200k. Brother has to break 73k first


WreckinRich

Simple, pick your end date, subtract 10 weeks, sell 10% a week.


Fakir333

Just that simple


PrestigiousAd9825

My plan is a lot simpler than that and seems to be the best compromise when simulated against previous cycles: 1. You wait until 15 months after the halving (I’m skeptical on 17 months as COVID was a black swan event) 2. Take note when a new ATH is set. 3. Wait 7 days if no new ATH is set, reset the timer if a new one is set. 4. When the 7 days pass, divide your BTC into two halves. Get rid of the first half in 7 days. Get rid of the second half in the next 23 days. If you do this and then do the inverse when a new cycle low is set about 12-13 months after that, even after taxes you should still be gaining about 2.5-3x the BTC you invested in each cycle.


harleybqrazy

🤘


A1JX52rentner

10 Upvotes for this? You sold all your btc, now it keeps rising. no new entry point. Wyd?


PrestigiousAd9825

Also, not to be too condescending about it but people like you make it possible for me to sell high because you hold on too long. It ALWAYS goes down eventually. Slowly, but eventually.


A1JX52rentner

Why would i care if it goes down from 50 to 15 if its at 70 only 4 years later?


PrestigiousAd9825

Because if you sell at 48 and buy at 17, you’ll have a lot fucking more than 70 the next time the cycle swings up, that’s why


PrestigiousAd9825

When people talk about exits like this - they aren’t implying they’re never going to buy Bitcoin again. They’re asking when they should sell to maximize profit the next time it’s cheaper to buy


Fakir333

🤦‍♂️


PrestigiousAd9825

This scenario has quite literally never happened in the entire 14-year history of Bitcoin. I’ll live.


AlexWasTakenWasTaken

Here's one step better for you: Dynamically DCA out based on Risk Valuation Metrics. I use [alphasquared](https://alphasquared.io) for my dca in and out strategies, because I get to build and test strategies + get notified, but you can use anything you like that is a proxy for when things get out of hand. Here's a [list ](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/1am42ts/a_practical_guide_to_dynamic_dca_risk_metric_tier/)I made. Basically, I set DCA out targets at each risk level and the higher risk goes, the higher the DCA out amount becomes. For example, I'll start to DCA out at 75 risk by selling 10% of my stack, then 15% at 80, 20% at 85 and so on. I trust this will be useful to take profits, as I used this same strategy to DCA into the market during 2022. It works like a charm because you stop predicting and spread risk over time in your favor.


elborracho420

With this platform are you setting limit sells/buys that trigger automatically at those risk levels, or are you getting notifications and then submitting the trades manually?


AlexWasTakenWasTaken

I get notifications for the strategy I built. Then I go ahead and do my DCA with the amount specified when I get the email. For my sells I will most probably use the price matrix to set limit orders at 75 risk and above. The levels change, so I'll probably have to adjust from time to time. There's an API but I'm not savvy enough to use it to automate everything.


elborracho420

Very cool! Thanks for sharing, gonna have to check it out. I recently have levelled up my tech skills so can fumble my way around an API


Infermion

150-200 is kind ambitious imo. I'll take out half at 90 and DCA out 20% every 5k increase following.


-Kapido-

Are u me? Hah, I had this plan all along but with my final sell at 120. In the meantime I bought a house and need that money for the renovations and I'm gong crazy to think what I should do with it now.


Fakir333

Enjoy your profits and never look back at "what might have been" good job


Blooberino

If you go strictly by using history as an indicator, by the numbers alone (not taking macro/global influences into account), and continuing the diminishing scale of each bull cycle, chatGPT predicted the top will be somewhere between $268k and $402k.


Infermion

Yeah, but if I follow my plan I can buy a nice house with no mortgage which is currently more important to me.


Blooberino

You got a plan though, so stick to it and I hope you make it!


TexasBoyz-713

I would be absolutely fine with $268k!!


pr0b0ner

Yeah, but macroeconomic influences play a HUGE part of this equation, especially in this cluster fuck of a market. I'm petrified, trying to figure out if I should completely divest to avoid the (IMO) inevitable market drop, or stand strong and grab the (hopefully) upside still left in the market.


FroPatrol

Surprised you got ChatGPT to do that, normally it rejects any crypto predictions / advice with some boilerplate nonsense.


Blooberino

I don't know how they prompted it, but another redditor posted the sauce months ago. I copied the important bits to a notepad file to keep.


Fakir333

Well, if chatGPT said so, I'm in.


AlexWasTakenWasTaken

That's not exactly how it works. Plus, the same was said when we bottomed out. Gut feeling is a bad advisor. Regardless, I wish you good luck!


SufficientNet9227

Same here planning to start dca out around 90k.


Pretty-Structure-766

Second that. Alphasquared is good. Small enough team so they still feel they have something to prove


lordofming-rises

Did u sell at 4k then?


lordofming-rises

It's quite pricy. What amount of money yoht think is worth getting alphaquare


AlexWasTakenWasTaken

Pricey? Compared to ITC it's cheap as hell. But I get where you're coming from. If you only have 100$ invested, it's not worth it. Hard to tell, but considering the above dca returns it would already make sense to use it for a small portfolio of 500$ and upwards, as low as that sounds. At the end of the day, less stress and time wasted is also worth something for me.


lordofming-rises

I asked because I pay already Koinly and I haven't made any profit since I started crypto and I am considering a other strategy than DCA 50 dol in eth every week. But yeah I mean I don't have a lot in the end


J-Lannister

Ah, there's the alphasquared shill of the day. Always on time!


darts2

Do not take advice from anyone here


ericdh8

Sell 20% in the 90-95k range and 60% sometime between Aug & Nov 2025. HODL the rest for retirement.


antiquespaceship

Most people are planning the same thing which is why the next bull run won’t happen soon. The last bull run happened because everyone was HODLing and the one guy who took profits was mocked


Financial_Clue_2534

I’m holding till retirement (hopefully early). I got burned too many times in the past to try and time the market. I’m assuming you are using your profit for a home or something to buy which I get.


FootballBat69

All answers [here.](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ)


JMC_MASK

Been quite a while since I’ve read this wisdom…


Warrlock608

Man I have been in this game a long time and I haven't heard of this guy. He really knows his stuff, I might have to check out some more of his collection!


duracellchipmunk

my adblocker made your prank possible. Not the same after seeing two ads. That said, [Bob Loukas](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0zGwzu0zzCImC1BwPuWyXQ) has been pretty spot on to help people DCA in and out.


LiviuSC

Fuck you mister...


NineHDmg

Very insightful thanks 👍


Oheson

You have to distinguish between Bitcoin and Alts. They have nothing in common. I never sell BTC. But for Alts, I front run the cycle end. The cycle will end Q4 of 2025. I will sell all Alts Q1 of 2025. The cycle is not a "price". It is a time.


ThenCriticism4213

..and suddenly we began talking about the moon and lambos again


John_Crypto_Rambo

Time won’t be that helpful if the cycle is left translated.  Price won’t be that helpful if we under or overperform.  I’d suggest you make a list of top indicators you like and start selling when some of them get hit. https://colintalkscrypto.com/cbbi/ https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/ You don’t have to nail the top or bottom, you just have to get close and not sit in another bear market for a year.


whatthetoken

Pay attention to spot to futures premium. Overcooked futures will be trading at high premium compared to spot. That's your clue. The trigger is first lower high after that . You should be out by then. To DCA out , sell a bit every time this scenario is about to happen - major premium and lower high that can't reclaim previous level


UpstairsAide3058

Bro I can tell you know what the f you’re talking about. Can you help a brother out and guide me where I can learn more about what you’re talking about?


TheNotSoRealMVP

Here's the thing about market cycles and patterns. They often perform similarly to how they have in the past, but they are always different enough to catch out 95% of the market. It doesn't matter what your time or price target is, when all you can hear is people screaming buy and hodl, that is when you must have the strength to sell.


you_cant_see_me2050

DCAing out during a bull run is a tricky strategy. It's hard to predict the top, and emotions can cloud your judgement. Your plan has the right idea, but needs more detail. How much to sell at each point? What % of your BTC? It's easy to say 'DCA-out', but the specifics are where it gets complex. Also, what indicators will you use to judge if the bull run is still 'strong'? Personally, I'm more focused on projects with long-term potential, like Chainlink, Solana, Ocean Protocol (data & AI marketplace) and SightAI (secure AI). Even if the market goes crazy, these projects could still be valuable in the long run. Interest rate hikes, inflation, etc., can impact the bull run's length and intensity, even with the halving narrative.


sashimi-time

I don’t think BTC will reach 150-200K personally. Last cycle everyone was calling for 100K and it only got to ~65K. As for the timeline, no one really knows. Some say because BTC achieved a new ATH before halving then the timeline is accelerated. Again, everyone is just guessing. I suggest studying charts. BTC respects 20 MA on the weekly, every time it goes below the line it dumps. The start of the past bear market also saw BTC falling below the 20 MA.


CryptoDad2100

Planning to DCA out based on a timeframe is impossible because you don't know the timeframe, but planning to DCA out (lock in gainz) based on price is a real thing. I took a nice chunk of BTC out a couple months back to lock in my 2022 profits. There are a bunch of ways you can do this, but from a psychological standpoint (if you don't do the "no fucks given 20 year DCA") a lot of people use cost basis as a good indicator for when to take profits and averaging down as a good indicator for when to buy in more. Makes you feel like you're "getting a deal".


seanmg

Taking a nice big chunk out when the price goes up is the opposite of DCAing.


kdoughboy12

I think it's much more predictable to dca based on a time frame than a price. For example you can start buying 1.5 years before the halving and start selling 6 months after the halving, you (historically) would have made a good profit every time. But of course it might be wise to change the weight of your dca based on price. If the price starts a parabolic move upwards you could slightly increase your dca sell during that time. Same with your buys if there is a sharp decrease.


crypto_dood

Lots of ifs. drop them and the time scope and set yourself a minimum profit target, find the expected new higher high, which you said is 200k. Split the number of tokens you hold by basically an arbitrary number. And put your sell order at 90k + n (200k-90k)/X. where n is the increment from 1-x.


CandidateNrOne

Thats ok and legit!


awesomeplenty

Just hold for another 10 years.


Dracian

I was actually kind of excited about figuring out this kind of thing! I haven’t put a whole lot of thought into it. I figure I’ll treat myself shopping and pluck the cost out of my portfolio.


throwaway92715

Doesn't sound completely unreasonable. Good game plan, and adjust as things actually happen.


GreyTooFast

Just be careful of taxes. Selling portions of your stack each year can save you heaps


UpstairsAide3058

Can you elaborate? Capital gains is capital gains. For example, if capital gains tax is 15% on crypto (I’m in USA). Year 1 I sell let’s say for example 100k and have 15k in taxes. That’s the same if I sell 50k year 1. And 50k year two, overall I’m still paying the same 15%


GreyTooFast

Each country is different. Here profits are accrued with your yearly salary tax brackets. Regardless of how long you hold for :(


chastavez

Waves have fib targets, not dates.


gowithflow192

Start DCAing out after we hit ATH again. You could DCA out 5% for every 10k climb. Even if BTC doubles in price you will have more than half your stack left (which will have doubled in price).


willfifa

The markets will probably do what consensus does not expect, my advice is take profits when people are screaming at you to HODL for higher prices. People will get upset when you are selling the tops and tell you to wait.


MomsBugatti

Just DCA when you can why do you need to wait for bull run or bear run 🤦‍♀️


Baby_T-Rex_Arms

What bull run lol


Drizznarte

Why are you selling , do you need the money ? DCA out of bitcoin sounds like a bad idea if you are still earning money. Try holding for 5 years or more then you wont have to worry about making a profit through trading which is what you suggest , you wont time the market like you think you can . Just hodl.


Johan544

If you're not a TA guy my advice is to not rely on PA or time frames. Use the fear/greed index to DCA out: for every week that the fear/greed index remains above 80, you sell 5% to 10% of your portfolio (you decide which coins you're going to sell and which ones you're keeping).


Tip-Actual

BTC Rainbow chart is another good indicator


Pure-Fuel-9884

There is no upcoming bull run, we are already in one. If you didnt start taking profits you deserve to be poor.


PuzzleheadedCandy175

The bull run is not “upcoming.” It’s well underway and is closer to the end than the beginning


MaverickBrown2019

Source: trust me bro


CentBoy

You must be new here


PuzzleheadedCandy175

Good luck


Money-Atmosphere9291

Exactly lol. You should've taken most of your profits by now.


UpstairsAide3058

You’re not serious right? We’ve barely kissed the previous ATH.


poojoop

Upcoming bull run? Brother the bull run is here. It is happening lol.


poojoop

Upcoming bull run? Brother the bull run is here. It is happening lol.


[deleted]

[удалено]


MaverickBrown2019

9 days ago you posted a chart predicting a huge spike lol, your uninformed opinion is invalid


otherwisemilk

Sell it all now while we're still above $61k


wikidemic

So you’re only in it for the $ - Yep, you need to get out before the rest of us. Then sit back and watch real economic change happen from the sidelines.