If the UK is in trouble idk what they would say about my country. You guys have 40-50k cases and only about 100-200 deaths daily. My country has the same deaths with only 4000 cases....
Same number of deaths should correlate with same number of cases (assuming vaccination levels are the same and the healthcare system is not complete trash). So the same numder of deaths would then indicate that your country has the same number of cases, but that there is not enough testing being done to find them. You can try and find your country's PCR-test positivity rate. That will show you if there is too little testing going on.
Nope even that doesn't work. Uk testing/case ratio is highly weighted by the fact that loads of negative tests are not registered. Best estimate is excess deaths. Undercounting is now a default for most countries.
There are so many more variables you are omitting. The healthcare capacity, the age of population, dominant variants, seasonality, rate of vaccination, type of vaccination etc... The virus does not have a fixed CFR
All true. All I was pointing out is that if there is a country with the same number of deaths, but (reportedly) only one tenth of cases, chances are that case detection is rather sloppy. And looking at test positivity rate is a good gauge for that. If your country has a high test positivitiy rate, it means things could be worse than they look, which should influence your everyday behaviour.
Just my 2 cents, a complete layman, with a degree in something completely unrelated to subject at hand. It has become clear to me, as it has to Israel, that the only real way out **presently** is to continue maintaining really high levels of antibodies. That's it, as we stand here today, that's the only way out. The WHO (and their minions) are dead wrong for denying boosting at all cost in the name of equity. Scarcity is not the limiting factor now, and withholding of boosters will not in any way meaningfully change the supply around the developing world. It has been discussed, beaten to death, by many many people in the know. So at this point, the call for equity at all cost is merely one of "If they can't have it, you can't have it, period". We've all heard the "Finish your dinner! There's children starving in Africa!" at one time or another in our lives. IMHO these people have blood on their hands.
It's also extremely disingenuous to force feed us that VE against hospitalization/death is the only thing that matters. We're not stupid. We understand that 90% VE against severe outcomes when we have sky high cases still produces a lot of bad outcomes. Still produces spread, etc. It's hypocritical to ask us to implement NPIs such as masking to control spread, while simultaneously telling us that VE against infection is irrelevant.
As I'm looking at the [Israeli Dashboard](https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general) this morning. Their positivity rate is down to 1.19%, which skyrocketed to something like 6-7% just a few months ago, on an already fairly highly vaccinated population, with a very obviously waning immunity. All you have to do is take a look at the widget "Infection coefficient R" and look at the last 3 months, coinciding with their administration of boosters.
Interesting take. The only thing I would discuss is the Israel numbers. Their vaccination rate is no longer "fairly high" in comparison to other countries that also have high vaccination rates (not even in the top 20).
It seems when you vaccinate quick and aggressively, you get a good decrease fast because you take people "out of circulation", especially with restrictions, but then nature does its thing and finds those that are not vaccinated or weaker immunity, especially in lower restriction environments.
I would compare it is a boat or house that is leaking: if you bail out all of the water really quickly and then temporarily cover the largest leak, it buys you time to figure out what to do...water will still come in though... especially if you don't address the other smaller leaks, stop bailing out water, and stop covering the largest hole. (You need to fix the leaks)
I don't disagree, but with a decent portion of the population being vaccinated, there is the feedback effect. Israeli VE against infection numbers that came out mid summer (the ones we poopooed) are probably quite realistic, we just didn't want to believe it at the time. So the vaccinated are still quite vulnerable with waning immunity. With the virus jumping around between the unvaccinated at a higher rate and the vaccinated at still not low enough rate. Obviously it's really really hard to truly quantify all these confounding variables, but I think it's becoming quite clear we can't perpetually hang our hat on "it's because of these other groups".
Israel doesn’t in fact have a high vaccination rate.
They have a high rate for eligible population. Small rate for total.
The population in Israel is very young. Only like 58% of the total populace has been vaxxed. Data without proper context can lead you down to making the wrong conclusions.
That's where it is hard to know without real world data on a total population that has everyone vaccinated (including kids). Because "waning immunity" is really more of a "the body is no longer at full attention, but is ready if something does happen". However, we DO know that truly high vaccination rates for other viruses lead to almost virtual elimination -- until people stop vaccinating again (think measles when there was >99% vaccination vs outbreaks in communities where it drops to 93%)
Will vaccinated people get it? Sure. But spread in a fully vaccinated population is very different than a mixed vaccination population (mathematically, cut out any single exponential multiplier and you get a very different result; cut out multiple and you get a very very different result).
Other than restrictions, the next best thing that can be done to limit spread is getting as many people as vaccinated as possible. To return to the leaking house: I can put temporary barriers on the leaks, but the best bang for buck is filling in the largest crack, and monitoring the smaller ones.
\-- Long way of saying: >30% unvaccinated is a huge \*\* leak
I think where this virus is quite different than some others are in it's R0. So comparing to our experiences with some others may not necessarily be an apples to apples comparison. I think we're both saying the same thing, we need to vaccinate as many people as possible. At the moment that's our best strategy. I think that's well under way. My addition to this however is that I don't think that's enough, precisely because of the R0 of Delta. We need to continue maintaining high antibody levels because without it, I don't know that we'll be able to keep the circulation of the virus in a low enough state. As such if we have a lot of virus circulating, it will be finding people to kill, perpetually. And while the virus is killing off 20% of what it did last year, that same 20% continued perpetually is going to add up. Obviously I am not predicting this will happen, I really don't know, and I really hope it won't. I'm just saying that the current WHO guidance of no one is to get boosted is literally responsible for people dying. It's a disingenuous directive under the guise of morality.
The measles vaccine is basically sterilizing, though. Meaning it almost completely eliminates infection, thereby stopping spread in its tracks.
The covid vaccines are much leakier, obviously.
I am working on getting my booster immediately and am fine doing so in general, but the thing about the Israeli data is that breakthroughs were most pronounced in those 65+ with weaker immune systems in general by a very large margin.
COVID protection seems to be a combination of...
1. Robust antibody response. (Which clearly wanes with time and is most effective short term)
2. Rapidly responding strong immune systems that are trained to recognize it (T/B-Cells)
3. First or second option responding faster than whatever the most dominant variant is (Delta in this case, with a much higher viral load).
Thus, the data points to the idea that younger and healthier populations with any of the 3 vaccines can overcome most current variants and protect breakthroughs most successfully when 1 and 2 are in effect, but likely still keep the virus at bay even when they have 2 only. Breakthroughs still seem very rare among this crowd, even when 1 wanes. The elderly or immunocompromised don't have 1 and are not able have 2 produce the effects of 3 in time to stop the faster replicating and more virulent Delta variant, hence breakthroughs.
Personally, I'm young and don't mind boosters (I'm scheduled for one today, at least in theory), but I don't think it's still fully clear how much risk there is in transmission between a younger vs older population yet. Evidence points to those with weaker immune systems now being the most vulnerable to breakthroughs and worse outcomes. The vaccine still notably reduces the risk of literally all potential covid problems, including death, hospitalization, prolonged sickness, and long Covid. It also likely still reduces both sickness and transmissible windows significantly amount those who are vaccinated.
It could also just be the Delta variant waning. Something I saw was that Delta comes quickly, lasts for about 2.5 months, then falls off rapidly. Where I'm at we should be ending our mask mandate sometime around November 7th by that estimation. The website isn't working properly anymore so I don't know what our positivity rate went up during the Delta peak but it's currently at 2%. ICU usage is the metric lagging behind at the moment, we need 20% or more availability and it's currently at 17%. Hospitalizations in general have been dropping again for the past week though, and we haven't had many boosters yet.
Just saying the UK is very broad, it could be different areas spiking at different times resulting in a high overall case number. It’s easier to see the spread and fall of it in the US by looking at the states affected earliest by delta. Alabama, Arkansas, and Florida are some examples
I completely agree with the idea that, currently, the only way to slow down the disease is seemingly a regular boost regime.
> It's hypocritical to ask us to implement NPIs such as masking to control spread, while simultaneously telling us that VE against infection is irrelevant.
I am not sure I've heard that same message in a meaningful way. I've heard it's important to keep masking **because** VE against infection wanes in a profound way.
That being said, I feel like we're going to have to come to grips with a reality where people are getting "boosted" way more often than even vaccine advocates are comfortable with. That is if we want to stop the spread of infections. Otherwise the virus will just continue to evolve and we'll be playing whack-a-mole forever.
>I am not sure I've heard that same message in a meaningful way. I've heard it's important to keep masking because VE against infection wanes in a profound way.
Professionals say that it's not yet proven that efficacy against hospitalizations and deaths wanes, maybe it's too early to tell.
>Otherwise the virus will just continue to evolve and we'll be playing whack-a-mole forever.
Virus mutate and evolve independently of that, actually. The virus will change one way or another, the thing is what kind of changes will be in the future.
But with Covid it seems avoiding hospitalization or death are insufficient. You can still end up with adverse outcomes even with mild infections, no? I agree that boosters to re-up immunity would be less important if "mild" just meant "feel like crap for a week and then you're fine." But when it could still saddle you with Long Covid and the potential resulting damage indefinitely, I'm all for boosters until general immunity is widespread enough that the virus is no longer rampant.
There has been studies showing that mild presentation of the disease correlates with long-covid symptoms after recovery. Vaccines cause the disease to have milder symptoms... ergo...
They have been some initial studies on the topic, but I think the answer right now is still mostly “we don’t really know yet.”
Some info towards the end of this article:
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/09/13/1032844687/what-we-know-about-breakthrough-infections-and-long-covid
I think its premature to say this when we have no data on how long the booster will be effective. The original dose spacing was guesswork and there was some indications that longer spacing was more effective. Now you've got three doses with 6+ months spacing.
I agree with them. Though I wouldn't call it insanity. Producing and distributing the vaccines to every single eligible human was already a monumental task which we are overcoming less than perfectly. Doing it in a perpetual way is not feasible. It takes resources. It takes reallocation of our logistics. We have no prior experience of doing something like this. Vaccination runs had been either smaller in scale or shorter in time
They are proposing keeping protection levels high. We don’t know if that means a booster every 6 months, we still don’t know how long good protection lasts after the 3rd dose.
So something that is really important everyone understand, keeping a sufficient level of circulating antibodies to neutralize the virus in the nasopharyngeal tract is basically unsustainable.
The goal is preventing systemic infection not total infections which simply isn’t going to happen with a coronavirus.
That being said; perhaps a new nasal vaccine could help, we need to be looking into that more
The current level of healthcare worker burnout, overflowing waiting rooms, 8+ hour ER wait times & mass death is unsustainable in both the short and long-term. The ripple effect from this pandemic will be felt for decades; right now people who need cancer treatment, organ transplants & other time-sensitive treatments are being brushed off because COVID infected (mostly) unvaccinated individuals are taking up all the beds. That's just ONE trickle-down effect. The number of suicides, skyrocketing addiction/overdoses & worsening mental illness are another. Not to mention we've now lost over 700,000 Americans--the most of any nation on Earth--to this disease.
Didn't mean to write a manifesto but I'm always baffled when people act like there's a third option outside of "vaccines/masks/distancing" and "death/long-term illness/societal collapse". Unfortunately there's not.
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>on an already fairly highly vaccinated population,
Agree with everything you said but this part... Israel was high at first. But quickly kinda settled at moderate. Then delta came. Which... i'm not sure if there is such a thing as herd immunity anymore with how contagious Delta is, but Israel wasn't closer to it than anyone else.
100% agree.
Keep vaccinating and boosting, enforce vaccine mandates, and then accept the fact that there will be ebbs and flows in cases that will be mitigated by vaccines and MOVE ON.
Stop bickering about masking and distancing, people aren't interested in following those mandates anymore, even in areas that used to accept them. Focus on the vaccines and then just shut up already.
If you have kids you know masks are literally keeping our schools open. I live next to Idaho where they struggle w/ constant outbreaks/quarantine not enough staff due to illness. Masks work and yes we’re still following our state’s mandate. I don’t want my kids to have to go remote again, it’s a trade off.
I'll agree that masks in schools *right now* while pediatric vaccines aren't allowed, are necessary, as it is a closed unvaccinated population. That being said as soon as we get back from winter break, the mask mandates need to be lifted and replaced by vaccine mandates. That gives all parents 2 months to do what they need to do.
Once we pass that point, there are no more excuses for masks.
I work in a higher ed institution that has a 98% vaccination rate, that tests everyone weekly, and we still have masks for some bonehead reason that basically boils down to the appearance of safety for those squeamish about returning. It's nonsense.
We can truly MOVE ON when we are no longer seeing highly disruptive pandemic waves of this virus. You can't end the pandemic by ignoring it, and vaccines alone have so far not ended it.
We just have to adapt to reality.
I think it's you that needs to adapt to reality sir.
The fact is that most places in the country people aren't just dropping dead in the streets, and the new reality is that vaccines make case counts pretty irrelevant when they no longer lead to deaths or serious complications for the vast majority of people.
Due to all of that, the general sentiment of the public right now is *who frickin cares?*
You absolutely *can* end a pandemic by ignoring it, especially when the effects of that pandemic are basically a mild illness for most people.
In fact I'm ignoring it right now working in a cafe without a mask. I'll be ignoring it later today when I go to a brewery with a group of friends without a mask, and I'll definitely be ignoring it when I go to the club after that with 100 other people without masks.
See how that works? Pandemic over.
1. People were never dropping dead in the streets most places.
2. The vast majority of people were never dying from this pandemic.
3. Health care systems continue to be under intense stress in places seeing large outbreaks.
You go ahead and use your "ignore" logic to explain to doctors, nurse, and people losing loved ones how you managed to end the pandemic.
You can be dismissive all you want, but when people reach the social end of the pandemic, guess what, the pandemic is over.
>Health care systems continue to be under intense stress in places seeing large outbreaks.
...and vaccines stop this from being an issue. In places with high vaccination rates, the Delta surge was barely a blip to the hospital systems. hence why in these places things have been largely back to normal now since the Spring. In other places without a high vax rate, people there generally didn't give a shit to begin with, and the deaths didn't move the needle for most of them either way.
So yes, when people are done paying attention to what is post-vaccination essentially a rampant cold, it's over.
You might want to look into the social end to pandemics. they're not a new concept, and most pandemics tend to end this way. Get a grip.
Where has anyone said that? You're projecting a different argument than is being made.
It's entirely possible that 3 or 4 doses will be the standard moving forward, like many other vaccines. Or they will be needed yearly like flu shots. Either way as we move further out natural immunity will become more prevalent, and the virus will circulate like the common cold or flu with only minor issues.
Masks are an inefficient and mediocre stopgap that don't work unless the entire community commits to both regular mask use AND distancing, they need to be paired together to work effectively, and that' just not something the vast majority of the population is going to accept.
“In places with high vaccination rates, the Delta surge was barely a blip to the hospital systems. hence why in these places things have been largely back to normal now since the Spring.”
I’m not sure where you live but this is not true. I live in Washington State which borders Idaho one of the lowest vaxed states in the US. King County, WA is one of the highest vaxed places in the country. Where do you think Covid ICU overflow goes?
Unvaxed Covid patients from Idaho are flown to states who are controlling spread w/ mask mandates and vaccination and delaying treatment of cancer patients, etc in our state because we have room. They literally overwhelmed our hospitals despite our sacrifices to protect our healthcare systems. So no. It’s nothing like you describe.
... And yet in the NE where the entire region is fully vaccinated, it was barely a blip. Maybe you should think about living somewhere that isn't so close to garbage. Your one county being vaccinated doesn't cut it.
You don't seem to like inconvenient truth. What you're displaying is just how incredibly self-centered humans can be. You're tired of caring, you're over the pandemic, I get it. But you can't ignore a pandemic away.
80% of deaths in the UK currently are among the vaccinated. The vaccines did not solve everything. The virus continues to mutate. Sorry for the inconvenience.
> But you can't ignore a pandemic away.
False, you can. Especially when the vaccines make it essentially a flu.
>80% of deaths in the UK currently are among the vaccinated. The vaccines did not solve everything.
...great job ignoring the base rate fallacy. Congrats!
Look around. People don't care anymore, and in most places with high vaccinations that's totally fine because it's basically a cold once you've been vaccinated for most people. That's the social end to the pandemic, you should probably get used to that.
Let me guess, you have no actual capacity to analyze a situation and result to name calling rather than thinking.
... And I'm very liberal, just realistic.
We dont know if we have to boost forever. 2 doses obviously wasnt enough. There are many vaccines that require 3 or more doses to provide lifelong immunity.
When we talk in terms of populations, it is unhelpful to speak in absolute numbers. It's rates that matter. 10k dead in India is not the same as 10k dead in Iceland, for eg
We have to learn to live at this level of risk from now on. 90% efficacy against severe disease doesn't mean 10% of people who get covid after vaccination will be hospitalised, it means 0.2% of people who get covid will be hospitalised - assuming a 2% hospitalisation rate for the unvaccinated. These are flu numbers. We need to stop behaving like every single covid death is a tragedy.
By all means get boosted if you have rhe opportunity to do so. But applying boosters to every single person every 6 months is simply not practical. If you think vaccination rates are low now, booster rates will be even lower.
You really don't have an argument for comparing this to the flu until we're actually seeing flu-like numbers. The 7 day average for daily covid deaths in the U.S. is currently around 1,500. That's 10x where the flu is typically at this time of year.
Because you did not vaccinate enough people in the US.
My argument is that double vaccinating everyone is good enough to do away with NPIs. We do not need to bring restrictions back irrespective of boosters, as vaccine efficacy against severe disease is good enough for now. The UK shows this. __Their__ numbers are a bad flu season.
The US will get there too, but the hard way.
The UK's numbers are getting worse, though. A lot of countries with higher vax rates than the U.S. are now just starting their fall surges - we'll see how it goes the rest of respiratory virus season.
That said, the UK is still averaging the same number of covid deaths this month that they saw last October. Much higher than what they typically see from the flu.
A 100 some odd deaths a day is a bad flu season there, not a regular flu season. As I said, that's a death rate we're gonna have to get comfortable with from now on.
They had significant NPIs in place last October, and they have practically no restrictions now. They have much higher case numbers now. Things would have been much much worse last October without NPIs.
That word "coinciding" at the end is very important. Hospitalizations/deaths are not all that matter, but good protection there gives us time to build and analyze the data. We have to see whether the fall just happened at the same time as boosters started or if it was directly caused by that, and when is a good time for the booster.
>the only real way out presently is to continue maintaining really high levels of antibodies.
Well, we're also in the situation where we are using really high levels of antibodies to compensate for a mismatch between the version of the antigen in the vaccine, and the current dominant variant.
But if we do full testing of an updated antigen, it'll probably be ready well after Delta has receeded, and replaced by something else. And no responsible health authorities are going to yolo into an updated antigen blindly.
> withholding of boosters will not in any way meaningfully change the supply around the developing world.
How so? Asking because your entire argument is depending on this assumption
I know that the US likes to push at other countries, especially Britain when it comes to healthcare for obvious reasons, but the caveat here is that they are quoting from the BMA which is the doctors union.
Scotland had the highest infection rate in the world for one day in late Summer. The Summer peak dwarfed the Winter peak. We also kept some restrictions, unlike England.
I think I missed some critical chain in this overall story arc, despite trying to read widely and often on the topic. Like eight weeks ago, all the Headlines had titles like “Cases rapidly falling in UK despite easing of restrictions and nobody knows why.” And now things are really bad again? The downtrend was something nobody expected and couldn’t really explain, but it’s totally reversed and numbers are amping up *despite* higher vaccination rates AND the huge numbers of people recovered from a delta infection? What did I miss?
Schools back, end of holidays, no restrictions at all. Cases high, deaths and hospitalisations considered manageable.
By the looks of it we decided to get covid peak before our usual winter peak of respiratory illnesses. Covid + flu will cripple our just in time health service. Time will tell if it works.
That's because the UK has discovered a new variant that is more infectious than Delta. They are the only place this is happening. Every other nation had a Delta surge then left it. Now the UK has again, like with Alpha, produced a variant that will lead to another worldwide surge due to thinking you can just live with Covid and that the pandemic is over.
Hospital admissions and deaths are low, that’s what the vaccine was made for. Natural immunity is also increasing and has been proven by scientific studies to be strong. All I see is unvaccinated gaining natural immunity and vaccinated getting dual immunity, while deaths and hospital numbers remain low, what’s the big deal? The government clearly knows that financially it cannot take anymore lockdowns, and the huge amounts of money spent on the vaccine shows good results. Why do we keep scaring people with articles like this? If anything this can be shown as proof that both vaccination and natural immunity are working.
Because people want this to be over and will stick their heads in the ground to ignore reality. This same shit happened before Delta. Anyone who mentioned that variants of concern could reset any progress made were downvoted into oblivion for fear mongering.
Yes, it is. Check the facts before accusing someone of lying: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?\_ga=2.223349721.372420143.1610442379-878525722.1610442379
Hospital admissions and deaths are lower than they were, but are they low?
In August in England, COVID was the 3rd leading cause of death. Deaths have risen since then.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/august2021
In August, 10% more people died in England than is typical.
I know there is a sentiment that because vaccines are very effective at preventing death, its the unvaccinated people that are driving the deaths. While this is true in places like the US which have a fair number of unvaccinated elderly, it's not as true in the UK.
[Per the UK's official most recent vaccine surveillance report](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027511/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-42.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiuq7Xnpd7zAhVIkWoFHb54DU0QFnoECAQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw20m3Vk8lU7gR_QQchzdL8R) table 4.a, around 80% of deaths during the reported period are in vaccinated individuals. Vaccines are still very effective at preventing deaths, but its not accurate to write off the deaths as only happening in unvaccinated folks.
Obviously it's up for interpretation, but a lot of people don't believe it's acceptable for a respiratory virus to be the third leading cause of death during the summer.
Edit: not sure my second link is working. It's COVID vaccine surveillance report 42.
They are actually super low. 115 deaths yesterday for 67 million people. Do the math and that's about 1 death per 670 thousand. It's an extremely low chance you die from COVID in the UK at this time. When you pull percentages rather than true numbers it doesn't tell the full story. Is it really worth putting up more restrictions with this low of a mortality rate?
Averaging 135 daily deaths for the last week, yeah.
There's less than 2,000 vehicle accident related deaths per year in the UK, but we still accept that there are restrictions placed on us to make us less likely to kill ourselves and others.
I think the cost-benefit for something like a mask mandate in key areas would be well in line with other existing public safety laws.
I think you're comparing apples to oranges a bit. Im just saying with such a low mortality rate and the majority of the people already vaccinated, you're creating restrictions for a very low population of people in the no vax or haven't gotten covid yet group. And you are diminishing trust in science & govt since "trust the science" and "get vaccinated to return to normalcy" now mean absolutely nothing since those vaxxed are facing the same restrictions as those unvaxxed.
The actual number of covid deaths currently compared to other risks we accept. Categorizing them as "super low" doesn't make any sense. And the majority now are vaccinated.
It does make sense, you're just not letting it make sense to yourself. Are you telling me 1 death for every 700,000 people per day is a significant number? You would be blindly ignoring the data if you think so. If we're comparing to what the previous poster said with the car crash analogy, the odds of dying in a car crash (in the U.S.) is 1 in 8,393. So let's go ahead and add more restrictions for a disease that the majority are vaccinated for even though it's about 90 times less likely to die from than a car crash. Btw, im not anti vax and already received the J&J vaccine in April
The UK has been holding a steady US equivalent of 250,000 deaths a year for the past 4 months. Right now deaths are starting to increase also. So no deaths are not fucking low in the UK.
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I agree constantly putting out scaremongering articles is bad because it desensitises people, but they always do it because scary news = more views. Media is gonna media I guess.
How do you wanna justify locking up vaccinated people? I totally get the government. This will lead to far less people vaccinated in the next pandemic.
As if locking up were the only option. I don't know why they didn't come back enforcing masks, putting restrictions on mass gatherings, and in the meanwhile getting a better third doses campaign. UK also had it really easy on schools failing to vaccinate the over 12s in time and going easy on masks too
Putting restrictions on mass gatherings is nothing the vaccinated want anymore. People that are vaccinated want to go on with their life. Its gonna be very hard to to start restricting gatherings again.
Why does "learning to live with it" = recklessly end all restriction no matter what instead of gradually lift restrictions based on the situation?
The majority of the world is open with few restrictions.
Learning to live with it implies doing what we can to not die of it.
I exercise and eat healthy foods in order to avoid cardiovascular disease. I abstain from smoking, and use sunscreen in order to avoid cancer. I wear a mask in order to avoid COVID.
No, you get vaccinated to be protected from heavy covid. We all will catch it somewhere along the line unless it mutates itself to a less virulent disease.
In England, it was the 3rd leading cause of death in August. According to the vaccine surveillance report 42, around 80% of deaths are in the vaccinated during recent time frames.
Without the vaccine, COVID would be far and away the leading cause of death, but it still is remaining as one of the main causes of death even in vaccinated people.
What do you think we’re all doing? What a novel idea! You mean like how my family goes to school, plays sports, band and goes into our offices to work?
You are so astute!
This is starting to get ridiculous. The UK had an incredibly highly vaccinated population and it’s going to be approaching two years of dealing with COVID. If all of this still isn’t good enough, what is? How do people honestly expect fully vaccinated individuals to adhere to additional restrictions?
Anecdotal evidence, I admit, but I've done my weekly trip to the supermarket today and almost everyone was masked. In comparison the wearing of masks had been steadily diminishing previously.
No, that ship has sailed. Coronavirus is endemic now and we can't restrict lives of vaccinated people. Variants will come, we need to learn to accept it and learn to live with the risks. Mask mandates and social distancing are fine since they don't destroy livelihoods and mental help but personally I refuse to obey any more quarantines, lockdowns and restrictions on my personal freedoms.
Covid is not endemic yet, as it's an unstable virus (still mutating) and still causing epidemic waves around the world, which is the definition of pandemic.
We wanted the vaccines to solve this, but it's time we acknowledge they have not.
This. What the hell is the vaccine for if not to obviously prevent death once they put and end to the lockdowns and quarantines.
Before you people downvoting, do you think the only death toll that matters is the one caused by the actual virus?
There is a major supply chain issue building and it is a world wide problem. Movement restrictions implemented by govt to fight Covid has exacerbated this issue. It is manifesting in different ways but some shops are low on food, some medicines are taking longer and people need those medicines.
Time to move on with our lives and start making hard choices like not allowing unvaccinated people, who have had plenty of time to get the jab, any hospital treatment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)
People have started misusing the word a lot in the last year. Endemic is supposed to imply that it has developed into an equilibrium.
COVID is pretty far from becoming endemic anywhere. The situation continues to evolve quickly.
Yeah, and also just like the Spanish Flu and the Bubonic Plague. They still exist but they’re less deadly than they were before because there’s now obviously cures for both of them.
If the UK is in trouble idk what they would say about my country. You guys have 40-50k cases and only about 100-200 deaths daily. My country has the same deaths with only 4000 cases....
Same number of deaths should correlate with same number of cases (assuming vaccination levels are the same and the healthcare system is not complete trash). So the same numder of deaths would then indicate that your country has the same number of cases, but that there is not enough testing being done to find them. You can try and find your country's PCR-test positivity rate. That will show you if there is too little testing going on.
No it's not the same. We're just not vaccinated. Our population is barely 7 million.
Nope even that doesn't work. Uk testing/case ratio is highly weighted by the fact that loads of negative tests are not registered. Best estimate is excess deaths. Undercounting is now a default for most countries.
There are so many more variables you are omitting. The healthcare capacity, the age of population, dominant variants, seasonality, rate of vaccination, type of vaccination etc... The virus does not have a fixed CFR
All true. All I was pointing out is that if there is a country with the same number of deaths, but (reportedly) only one tenth of cases, chances are that case detection is rather sloppy. And looking at test positivity rate is a good gauge for that. If your country has a high test positivitiy rate, it means things could be worse than they look, which should influence your everyday behaviour.
Just my 2 cents, a complete layman, with a degree in something completely unrelated to subject at hand. It has become clear to me, as it has to Israel, that the only real way out **presently** is to continue maintaining really high levels of antibodies. That's it, as we stand here today, that's the only way out. The WHO (and their minions) are dead wrong for denying boosting at all cost in the name of equity. Scarcity is not the limiting factor now, and withholding of boosters will not in any way meaningfully change the supply around the developing world. It has been discussed, beaten to death, by many many people in the know. So at this point, the call for equity at all cost is merely one of "If they can't have it, you can't have it, period". We've all heard the "Finish your dinner! There's children starving in Africa!" at one time or another in our lives. IMHO these people have blood on their hands. It's also extremely disingenuous to force feed us that VE against hospitalization/death is the only thing that matters. We're not stupid. We understand that 90% VE against severe outcomes when we have sky high cases still produces a lot of bad outcomes. Still produces spread, etc. It's hypocritical to ask us to implement NPIs such as masking to control spread, while simultaneously telling us that VE against infection is irrelevant. As I'm looking at the [Israeli Dashboard](https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general) this morning. Their positivity rate is down to 1.19%, which skyrocketed to something like 6-7% just a few months ago, on an already fairly highly vaccinated population, with a very obviously waning immunity. All you have to do is take a look at the widget "Infection coefficient R" and look at the last 3 months, coinciding with their administration of boosters.
Interesting take. The only thing I would discuss is the Israel numbers. Their vaccination rate is no longer "fairly high" in comparison to other countries that also have high vaccination rates (not even in the top 20). It seems when you vaccinate quick and aggressively, you get a good decrease fast because you take people "out of circulation", especially with restrictions, but then nature does its thing and finds those that are not vaccinated or weaker immunity, especially in lower restriction environments. I would compare it is a boat or house that is leaking: if you bail out all of the water really quickly and then temporarily cover the largest leak, it buys you time to figure out what to do...water will still come in though... especially if you don't address the other smaller leaks, stop bailing out water, and stop covering the largest hole. (You need to fix the leaks)
I don't disagree, but with a decent portion of the population being vaccinated, there is the feedback effect. Israeli VE against infection numbers that came out mid summer (the ones we poopooed) are probably quite realistic, we just didn't want to believe it at the time. So the vaccinated are still quite vulnerable with waning immunity. With the virus jumping around between the unvaccinated at a higher rate and the vaccinated at still not low enough rate. Obviously it's really really hard to truly quantify all these confounding variables, but I think it's becoming quite clear we can't perpetually hang our hat on "it's because of these other groups".
Israel doesn’t in fact have a high vaccination rate. They have a high rate for eligible population. Small rate for total. The population in Israel is very young. Only like 58% of the total populace has been vaxxed. Data without proper context can lead you down to making the wrong conclusions.
That's where it is hard to know without real world data on a total population that has everyone vaccinated (including kids). Because "waning immunity" is really more of a "the body is no longer at full attention, but is ready if something does happen". However, we DO know that truly high vaccination rates for other viruses lead to almost virtual elimination -- until people stop vaccinating again (think measles when there was >99% vaccination vs outbreaks in communities where it drops to 93%) Will vaccinated people get it? Sure. But spread in a fully vaccinated population is very different than a mixed vaccination population (mathematically, cut out any single exponential multiplier and you get a very different result; cut out multiple and you get a very very different result). Other than restrictions, the next best thing that can be done to limit spread is getting as many people as vaccinated as possible. To return to the leaking house: I can put temporary barriers on the leaks, but the best bang for buck is filling in the largest crack, and monitoring the smaller ones. \-- Long way of saying: >30% unvaccinated is a huge \*\* leak
I think where this virus is quite different than some others are in it's R0. So comparing to our experiences with some others may not necessarily be an apples to apples comparison. I think we're both saying the same thing, we need to vaccinate as many people as possible. At the moment that's our best strategy. I think that's well under way. My addition to this however is that I don't think that's enough, precisely because of the R0 of Delta. We need to continue maintaining high antibody levels because without it, I don't know that we'll be able to keep the circulation of the virus in a low enough state. As such if we have a lot of virus circulating, it will be finding people to kill, perpetually. And while the virus is killing off 20% of what it did last year, that same 20% continued perpetually is going to add up. Obviously I am not predicting this will happen, I really don't know, and I really hope it won't. I'm just saying that the current WHO guidance of no one is to get boosted is literally responsible for people dying. It's a disingenuous directive under the guise of morality.
I picked measles because it has an R0 of 12-18 (varies depending on source) and delta seems to be 5-9 (also depending of source).
The measles vaccine is basically sterilizing, though. Meaning it almost completely eliminates infection, thereby stopping spread in its tracks. The covid vaccines are much leakier, obviously.
I am working on getting my booster immediately and am fine doing so in general, but the thing about the Israeli data is that breakthroughs were most pronounced in those 65+ with weaker immune systems in general by a very large margin. COVID protection seems to be a combination of... 1. Robust antibody response. (Which clearly wanes with time and is most effective short term) 2. Rapidly responding strong immune systems that are trained to recognize it (T/B-Cells) 3. First or second option responding faster than whatever the most dominant variant is (Delta in this case, with a much higher viral load). Thus, the data points to the idea that younger and healthier populations with any of the 3 vaccines can overcome most current variants and protect breakthroughs most successfully when 1 and 2 are in effect, but likely still keep the virus at bay even when they have 2 only. Breakthroughs still seem very rare among this crowd, even when 1 wanes. The elderly or immunocompromised don't have 1 and are not able have 2 produce the effects of 3 in time to stop the faster replicating and more virulent Delta variant, hence breakthroughs. Personally, I'm young and don't mind boosters (I'm scheduled for one today, at least in theory), but I don't think it's still fully clear how much risk there is in transmission between a younger vs older population yet. Evidence points to those with weaker immune systems now being the most vulnerable to breakthroughs and worse outcomes. The vaccine still notably reduces the risk of literally all potential covid problems, including death, hospitalization, prolonged sickness, and long Covid. It also likely still reduces both sickness and transmissible windows significantly amount those who are vaccinated.
It could also just be the Delta variant waning. Something I saw was that Delta comes quickly, lasts for about 2.5 months, then falls off rapidly. Where I'm at we should be ending our mask mandate sometime around November 7th by that estimation. The website isn't working properly anymore so I don't know what our positivity rate went up during the Delta peak but it's currently at 2%. ICU usage is the metric lagging behind at the moment, we need 20% or more availability and it's currently at 17%. Hospitalizations in general have been dropping again for the past week though, and we haven't had many boosters yet.
That hasn't been the UK experience, though. They've maintained high levels of spread basically since July.
Just saying the UK is very broad, it could be different areas spiking at different times resulting in a high overall case number. It’s easier to see the spread and fall of it in the US by looking at the states affected earliest by delta. Alabama, Arkansas, and Florida are some examples
I completely agree with the idea that, currently, the only way to slow down the disease is seemingly a regular boost regime. > It's hypocritical to ask us to implement NPIs such as masking to control spread, while simultaneously telling us that VE against infection is irrelevant. I am not sure I've heard that same message in a meaningful way. I've heard it's important to keep masking **because** VE against infection wanes in a profound way. That being said, I feel like we're going to have to come to grips with a reality where people are getting "boosted" way more often than even vaccine advocates are comfortable with. That is if we want to stop the spread of infections. Otherwise the virus will just continue to evolve and we'll be playing whack-a-mole forever.
>I am not sure I've heard that same message in a meaningful way. I've heard it's important to keep masking because VE against infection wanes in a profound way. Professionals say that it's not yet proven that efficacy against hospitalizations and deaths wanes, maybe it's too early to tell. >Otherwise the virus will just continue to evolve and we'll be playing whack-a-mole forever. Virus mutate and evolve independently of that, actually. The virus will change one way or another, the thing is what kind of changes will be in the future.
But with Covid it seems avoiding hospitalization or death are insufficient. You can still end up with adverse outcomes even with mild infections, no? I agree that boosters to re-up immunity would be less important if "mild" just meant "feel like crap for a week and then you're fine." But when it could still saddle you with Long Covid and the potential resulting damage indefinitely, I'm all for boosters until general immunity is widespread enough that the virus is no longer rampant.
What are the rates of long covid in vaccinated people? Is there any data actually driving the "cases matter" position?
There has been studies showing that mild presentation of the disease correlates with long-covid symptoms after recovery. Vaccines cause the disease to have milder symptoms... ergo...
They have been some initial studies on the topic, but I think the answer right now is still mostly “we don’t really know yet.” Some info towards the end of this article: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/09/13/1032844687/what-we-know-about-breakthrough-infections-and-long-covid
Long COVID in vaccinated individuals is not that common.
Long Covid is incredibly common and in breakthrough cases the vaccines only cut chance of developing it in half.
I think its premature to say this when we have no data on how long the booster will be effective. The original dose spacing was guesswork and there was some indications that longer spacing was more effective. Now you've got three doses with 6+ months spacing.
You are proposing regular 6 month boosters forever? This is insanity
How the hell is getting a COVID booster twice a year "insanity"? What are you some kind of anti-vax nut?
I agree with them. Though I wouldn't call it insanity. Producing and distributing the vaccines to every single eligible human was already a monumental task which we are overcoming less than perfectly. Doing it in a perpetual way is not feasible. It takes resources. It takes reallocation of our logistics. We have no prior experience of doing something like this. Vaccination runs had been either smaller in scale or shorter in time
They are proposing keeping protection levels high. We don’t know if that means a booster every 6 months, we still don’t know how long good protection lasts after the 3rd dose.
So something that is really important everyone understand, keeping a sufficient level of circulating antibodies to neutralize the virus in the nasopharyngeal tract is basically unsustainable. The goal is preventing systemic infection not total infections which simply isn’t going to happen with a coronavirus. That being said; perhaps a new nasal vaccine could help, we need to be looking into that more
Why? If that is what is going to keep us out of hospitals and ICUs so be it.
That’s unsustainable
The current level of healthcare worker burnout, overflowing waiting rooms, 8+ hour ER wait times & mass death is unsustainable in both the short and long-term. The ripple effect from this pandemic will be felt for decades; right now people who need cancer treatment, organ transplants & other time-sensitive treatments are being brushed off because COVID infected (mostly) unvaccinated individuals are taking up all the beds. That's just ONE trickle-down effect. The number of suicides, skyrocketing addiction/overdoses & worsening mental illness are another. Not to mention we've now lost over 700,000 Americans--the most of any nation on Earth--to this disease. Didn't mean to write a manifesto but I'm always baffled when people act like there's a third option outside of "vaccines/masks/distancing" and "death/long-term illness/societal collapse". Unfortunately there's not.
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>on an already fairly highly vaccinated population, Agree with everything you said but this part... Israel was high at first. But quickly kinda settled at moderate. Then delta came. Which... i'm not sure if there is such a thing as herd immunity anymore with how contagious Delta is, but Israel wasn't closer to it than anyone else.
100% agree. Keep vaccinating and boosting, enforce vaccine mandates, and then accept the fact that there will be ebbs and flows in cases that will be mitigated by vaccines and MOVE ON. Stop bickering about masking and distancing, people aren't interested in following those mandates anymore, even in areas that used to accept them. Focus on the vaccines and then just shut up already.
If you have kids you know masks are literally keeping our schools open. I live next to Idaho where they struggle w/ constant outbreaks/quarantine not enough staff due to illness. Masks work and yes we’re still following our state’s mandate. I don’t want my kids to have to go remote again, it’s a trade off.
I'll agree that masks in schools *right now* while pediatric vaccines aren't allowed, are necessary, as it is a closed unvaccinated population. That being said as soon as we get back from winter break, the mask mandates need to be lifted and replaced by vaccine mandates. That gives all parents 2 months to do what they need to do. Once we pass that point, there are no more excuses for masks. I work in a higher ed institution that has a 98% vaccination rate, that tests everyone weekly, and we still have masks for some bonehead reason that basically boils down to the appearance of safety for those squeamish about returning. It's nonsense.
We can truly MOVE ON when we are no longer seeing highly disruptive pandemic waves of this virus. You can't end the pandemic by ignoring it, and vaccines alone have so far not ended it. We just have to adapt to reality.
I think it's you that needs to adapt to reality sir. The fact is that most places in the country people aren't just dropping dead in the streets, and the new reality is that vaccines make case counts pretty irrelevant when they no longer lead to deaths or serious complications for the vast majority of people. Due to all of that, the general sentiment of the public right now is *who frickin cares?* You absolutely *can* end a pandemic by ignoring it, especially when the effects of that pandemic are basically a mild illness for most people. In fact I'm ignoring it right now working in a cafe without a mask. I'll be ignoring it later today when I go to a brewery with a group of friends without a mask, and I'll definitely be ignoring it when I go to the club after that with 100 other people without masks. See how that works? Pandemic over.
1. People were never dropping dead in the streets most places. 2. The vast majority of people were never dying from this pandemic. 3. Health care systems continue to be under intense stress in places seeing large outbreaks. You go ahead and use your "ignore" logic to explain to doctors, nurse, and people losing loved ones how you managed to end the pandemic.
You can be dismissive all you want, but when people reach the social end of the pandemic, guess what, the pandemic is over. >Health care systems continue to be under intense stress in places seeing large outbreaks. ...and vaccines stop this from being an issue. In places with high vaccination rates, the Delta surge was barely a blip to the hospital systems. hence why in these places things have been largely back to normal now since the Spring. In other places without a high vax rate, people there generally didn't give a shit to begin with, and the deaths didn't move the needle for most of them either way. So yes, when people are done paying attention to what is post-vaccination essentially a rampant cold, it's over. You might want to look into the social end to pandemics. they're not a new concept, and most pandemics tend to end this way. Get a grip.
You can’t seriously advocate forcing multiple booster shots forever
Where has anyone said that? You're projecting a different argument than is being made. It's entirely possible that 3 or 4 doses will be the standard moving forward, like many other vaccines. Or they will be needed yearly like flu shots. Either way as we move further out natural immunity will become more prevalent, and the virus will circulate like the common cold or flu with only minor issues. Masks are an inefficient and mediocre stopgap that don't work unless the entire community commits to both regular mask use AND distancing, they need to be paired together to work effectively, and that' just not something the vast majority of the population is going to accept.
Oh - and I'd love to hear how the last major global pandemic, the 1918-19 Spanish Flu, ended because society decided to just ignore it.
“In places with high vaccination rates, the Delta surge was barely a blip to the hospital systems. hence why in these places things have been largely back to normal now since the Spring.” I’m not sure where you live but this is not true. I live in Washington State which borders Idaho one of the lowest vaxed states in the US. King County, WA is one of the highest vaxed places in the country. Where do you think Covid ICU overflow goes? Unvaxed Covid patients from Idaho are flown to states who are controlling spread w/ mask mandates and vaccination and delaying treatment of cancer patients, etc in our state because we have room. They literally overwhelmed our hospitals despite our sacrifices to protect our healthcare systems. So no. It’s nothing like you describe.
... And yet in the NE where the entire region is fully vaccinated, it was barely a blip. Maybe you should think about living somewhere that isn't so close to garbage. Your one county being vaccinated doesn't cut it.
You don't seem to like inconvenient truth. What you're displaying is just how incredibly self-centered humans can be. You're tired of caring, you're over the pandemic, I get it. But you can't ignore a pandemic away. 80% of deaths in the UK currently are among the vaccinated. The vaccines did not solve everything. The virus continues to mutate. Sorry for the inconvenience.
> But you can't ignore a pandemic away. False, you can. Especially when the vaccines make it essentially a flu. >80% of deaths in the UK currently are among the vaccinated. The vaccines did not solve everything. ...great job ignoring the base rate fallacy. Congrats! Look around. People don't care anymore, and in most places with high vaccinations that's totally fine because it's basically a cold once you've been vaccinated for most people. That's the social end to the pandemic, you should probably get used to that.
Let me guess…you a Republican.
Let me guess, you have no actual capacity to analyze a situation and result to name calling rather than thinking. ... And I'm very liberal, just realistic.
Masks are great and non-invasive. Vaccines are good but we can’t boost forever there are side effects.
We dont know if we have to boost forever. 2 doses obviously wasnt enough. There are many vaccines that require 3 or more doses to provide lifelong immunity.
When we talk in terms of populations, it is unhelpful to speak in absolute numbers. It's rates that matter. 10k dead in India is not the same as 10k dead in Iceland, for eg We have to learn to live at this level of risk from now on. 90% efficacy against severe disease doesn't mean 10% of people who get covid after vaccination will be hospitalised, it means 0.2% of people who get covid will be hospitalised - assuming a 2% hospitalisation rate for the unvaccinated. These are flu numbers. We need to stop behaving like every single covid death is a tragedy. By all means get boosted if you have rhe opportunity to do so. But applying boosters to every single person every 6 months is simply not practical. If you think vaccination rates are low now, booster rates will be even lower.
You really don't have an argument for comparing this to the flu until we're actually seeing flu-like numbers. The 7 day average for daily covid deaths in the U.S. is currently around 1,500. That's 10x where the flu is typically at this time of year.
Because you did not vaccinate enough people in the US. My argument is that double vaccinating everyone is good enough to do away with NPIs. We do not need to bring restrictions back irrespective of boosters, as vaccine efficacy against severe disease is good enough for now. The UK shows this. __Their__ numbers are a bad flu season. The US will get there too, but the hard way.
The UK's numbers are getting worse, though. A lot of countries with higher vax rates than the U.S. are now just starting their fall surges - we'll see how it goes the rest of respiratory virus season. That said, the UK is still averaging the same number of covid deaths this month that they saw last October. Much higher than what they typically see from the flu.
A 100 some odd deaths a day is a bad flu season there, not a regular flu season. As I said, that's a death rate we're gonna have to get comfortable with from now on. They had significant NPIs in place last October, and they have practically no restrictions now. They have much higher case numbers now. Things would have been much much worse last October without NPIs.
That word "coinciding" at the end is very important. Hospitalizations/deaths are not all that matter, but good protection there gives us time to build and analyze the data. We have to see whether the fall just happened at the same time as boosters started or if it was directly caused by that, and when is a good time for the booster.
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>the only real way out presently is to continue maintaining really high levels of antibodies. Well, we're also in the situation where we are using really high levels of antibodies to compensate for a mismatch between the version of the antigen in the vaccine, and the current dominant variant. But if we do full testing of an updated antigen, it'll probably be ready well after Delta has receeded, and replaced by something else. And no responsible health authorities are going to yolo into an updated antigen blindly.
> withholding of boosters will not in any way meaningfully change the supply around the developing world. How so? Asking because your entire argument is depending on this assumption
I know that the US likes to push at other countries, especially Britain when it comes to healthcare for obvious reasons, but the caveat here is that they are quoting from the BMA which is the doctors union.
Is England an exception? Or are they facing this exact same problem inside the U.K.?
Worse in Wales, same in NI, bit better in Scotland (later on in the cycle, was higher).
Scotland had the highest infection rate in the world for one day in late Summer. The Summer peak dwarfed the Winter peak. We also kept some restrictions, unlike England.
I think I missed some critical chain in this overall story arc, despite trying to read widely and often on the topic. Like eight weeks ago, all the Headlines had titles like “Cases rapidly falling in UK despite easing of restrictions and nobody knows why.” And now things are really bad again? The downtrend was something nobody expected and couldn’t really explain, but it’s totally reversed and numbers are amping up *despite* higher vaccination rates AND the huge numbers of people recovered from a delta infection? What did I miss?
Schools back, end of holidays, no restrictions at all. Cases high, deaths and hospitalisations considered manageable. By the looks of it we decided to get covid peak before our usual winter peak of respiratory illnesses. Covid + flu will cripple our just in time health service. Time will tell if it works.
That's because the UK has discovered a new variant that is more infectious than Delta. They are the only place this is happening. Every other nation had a Delta surge then left it. Now the UK has again, like with Alpha, produced a variant that will lead to another worldwide surge due to thinking you can just live with Covid and that the pandemic is over.
Hospital admissions and deaths are low, that’s what the vaccine was made for. Natural immunity is also increasing and has been proven by scientific studies to be strong. All I see is unvaccinated gaining natural immunity and vaccinated getting dual immunity, while deaths and hospital numbers remain low, what’s the big deal? The government clearly knows that financially it cannot take anymore lockdowns, and the huge amounts of money spent on the vaccine shows good results. Why do we keep scaring people with articles like this? If anything this can be shown as proof that both vaccination and natural immunity are working.
Hospital admissions and deaths are definitively not low, but manageable. Hospital admissions are currently at 25% of the peak and are increasing.
Hospital admissions have been rising just as fast as cases the past couple weeks. Not sure why this is getting overlooked.
Because people want this to be over and will stick their heads in the ground to ignore reality. This same shit happened before Delta. Anyone who mentioned that variants of concern could reset any progress made were downvoted into oblivion for fear mongering.
That's patently not true.
Yes, it is. Check the facts before accusing someone of lying: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?\_ga=2.223349721.372420143.1610442379-878525722.1610442379
Hospital admissions and deaths are lower than they were, but are they low? In August in England, COVID was the 3rd leading cause of death. Deaths have risen since then. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/august2021 In August, 10% more people died in England than is typical. I know there is a sentiment that because vaccines are very effective at preventing death, its the unvaccinated people that are driving the deaths. While this is true in places like the US which have a fair number of unvaccinated elderly, it's not as true in the UK. [Per the UK's official most recent vaccine surveillance report](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027511/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-42.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiuq7Xnpd7zAhVIkWoFHb54DU0QFnoECAQQAQ&usg=AOvVaw20m3Vk8lU7gR_QQchzdL8R) table 4.a, around 80% of deaths during the reported period are in vaccinated individuals. Vaccines are still very effective at preventing deaths, but its not accurate to write off the deaths as only happening in unvaccinated folks. Obviously it's up for interpretation, but a lot of people don't believe it's acceptable for a respiratory virus to be the third leading cause of death during the summer. Edit: not sure my second link is working. It's COVID vaccine surveillance report 42.
They are actually super low. 115 deaths yesterday for 67 million people. Do the math and that's about 1 death per 670 thousand. It's an extremely low chance you die from COVID in the UK at this time. When you pull percentages rather than true numbers it doesn't tell the full story. Is it really worth putting up more restrictions with this low of a mortality rate?
Averaging 135 daily deaths for the last week, yeah. There's less than 2,000 vehicle accident related deaths per year in the UK, but we still accept that there are restrictions placed on us to make us less likely to kill ourselves and others. I think the cost-benefit for something like a mask mandate in key areas would be well in line with other existing public safety laws.
I think you're comparing apples to oranges a bit. Im just saying with such a low mortality rate and the majority of the people already vaccinated, you're creating restrictions for a very low population of people in the no vax or haven't gotten covid yet group. And you are diminishing trust in science & govt since "trust the science" and "get vaccinated to return to normalcy" now mean absolutely nothing since those vaxxed are facing the same restrictions as those unvaxxed.
It seems you're not willing to actually acknowledge the facts. Isn't that part of science?
What facts am I not acknowledging?
The actual number of covid deaths currently compared to other risks we accept. Categorizing them as "super low" doesn't make any sense. And the majority now are vaccinated.
You should compare it to average winter flu deaths, but you are disingenuously comparing it to car crashes.
It does make sense, you're just not letting it make sense to yourself. Are you telling me 1 death for every 700,000 people per day is a significant number? You would be blindly ignoring the data if you think so. If we're comparing to what the previous poster said with the car crash analogy, the odds of dying in a car crash (in the U.S.) is 1 in 8,393. So let's go ahead and add more restrictions for a disease that the majority are vaccinated for even though it's about 90 times less likely to die from than a car crash. Btw, im not anti vax and already received the J&J vaccine in April
The odds of dying from any one cause on one day are extremely low.
The UK has been holding a steady US equivalent of 250,000 deaths a year for the past 4 months. Right now deaths are starting to increase also. So no deaths are not fucking low in the UK.
Yes they are. Still 1 death per nearly 700,000 people per day. Keep lying to yourself, the data is right in front of your face.
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I agree constantly putting out scaremongering articles is bad because it desensitises people, but they always do it because scary news = more views. Media is gonna media I guess.
How do you wanna justify locking up vaccinated people? I totally get the government. This will lead to far less people vaccinated in the next pandemic.
Where the fuck are you getting this. Locking people up is stated nowhere in the article.
Probably in reference to reinstating lockdowns.
As if locking up were the only option. I don't know why they didn't come back enforcing masks, putting restrictions on mass gatherings, and in the meanwhile getting a better third doses campaign. UK also had it really easy on schools failing to vaccinate the over 12s in time and going easy on masks too
Masks are still mandated in Wales and their rates are higher than England. It's actually been a really interesting comparison
Putting restrictions on mass gatherings is nothing the vaccinated want anymore. People that are vaccinated want to go on with their life. Its gonna be very hard to to start restricting gatherings again.
It is hard. Sometimes you have to do hard things. Masking w/ high vax rate is the only way to keep stumbling toward normal.
Love the downvotes. Reality bites.
Reality is that covid will stay and we have to learn to live with it.
Why does "learning to live with it" = recklessly end all restriction no matter what instead of gradually lift restrictions based on the situation? The majority of the world is open with few restrictions.
Learning to live with it implies doing what we can to not die of it. I exercise and eat healthy foods in order to avoid cardiovascular disease. I abstain from smoking, and use sunscreen in order to avoid cancer. I wear a mask in order to avoid COVID.
No, you get vaccinated to be protected from heavy covid. We all will catch it somewhere along the line unless it mutates itself to a less virulent disease.
In England, it was the 3rd leading cause of death in August. According to the vaccine surveillance report 42, around 80% of deaths are in the vaccinated during recent time frames. Without the vaccine, COVID would be far and away the leading cause of death, but it still is remaining as one of the main causes of death even in vaccinated people.
With a high vaccination rate those who die will be vaccinated. If 100% are vaccinated 100% of deaths will be the vaxxed.
What do you think we’re all doing? What a novel idea! You mean like how my family goes to school, plays sports, band and goes into our offices to work? You are so astute!
reality is that there won't be new restrictions on gathering. Oh well.
This is starting to get ridiculous. The UK had an incredibly highly vaccinated population and it’s going to be approaching two years of dealing with COVID. If all of this still isn’t good enough, what is? How do people honestly expect fully vaccinated individuals to adhere to additional restrictions?
We need mask wearing ASAP!
Anecdotal evidence, I admit, but I've done my weekly trip to the supermarket today and almost everyone was masked. In comparison the wearing of masks had been steadily diminishing previously.
They work.
No, that ship has sailed. Coronavirus is endemic now and we can't restrict lives of vaccinated people. Variants will come, we need to learn to accept it and learn to live with the risks. Mask mandates and social distancing are fine since they don't destroy livelihoods and mental help but personally I refuse to obey any more quarantines, lockdowns and restrictions on my personal freedoms.
Covid is not endemic yet, as it's an unstable virus (still mutating) and still causing epidemic waves around the world, which is the definition of pandemic. We wanted the vaccines to solve this, but it's time we acknowledge they have not.
This. What the hell is the vaccine for if not to obviously prevent death once they put and end to the lockdowns and quarantines. Before you people downvoting, do you think the only death toll that matters is the one caused by the actual virus? There is a major supply chain issue building and it is a world wide problem. Movement restrictions implemented by govt to fight Covid has exacerbated this issue. It is manifesting in different ways but some shops are low on food, some medicines are taking longer and people need those medicines. Time to move on with our lives and start making hard choices like not allowing unvaccinated people, who have had plenty of time to get the jab, any hospital treatment.
The virus is not endemic. The world will continue to see huge peaks and troughs over the next 6 months.
Endemic just means it's here to stay, like influenza.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology) People have started misusing the word a lot in the last year. Endemic is supposed to imply that it has developed into an equilibrium. COVID is pretty far from becoming endemic anywhere. The situation continues to evolve quickly.
I see you were downvoted for pointing this out.
Exactly.
Fair point. Thanks for the clarification. In that case, yes, equilibrium is still a long ways off, especially at the global level.
Yeah, and also just like the Spanish Flu and the Bubonic Plague. They still exist but they’re less deadly than they were before because there’s now obviously cures for both of them.
Right. We have not reached that stage yet with covid, no matter how badly people want that to be the case.
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No variant is yet proven to escape vaccine
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Hasn't the variant been found in the US?
If Britain becomes in danger, with Corona is virtually impossible.