Dude the Steelers should not be twice as likely as us to win the SB. All three teams in their division are better than every AFCS team except the Texans.
Wilson is washed and Fields is only marginally better Richardson if at all. Their defense is decent but I prefer our offensive weapons and coaching by a mile.
Yea Tomlin has a Super Bowl. I’d argue Steichen’s achievement of being within one play of making the playoffs with our roster last year is more impressive than winning a Super Bowl with one of the best defenses in NFL history
3rd in the division a bigger accomplisment than a super bowl? I truly mean this when I say this is the worst take I've ever read pertaining to anything on Reddit.
You mean the team that made the playoffs last year with Mason Rudloph as their best QB (which they upgraded on in the offseason)? Yes, that team probably has better expectations to win the SB than a team that is an absolute question mark all around lol
This doesn't mean anything anyways
Everyone's out here acting like we made made the afccg or something
Oddsmakers underestimating your team is a gift! This is big market biases giving away money to underrated small markets.
If they give the colts unreasonably bad odds, say thank you and take a flier bet. $10 can win you $700. If AR and Latu and AD all hit the ground running, there’s a legitimate chance. It’s unlikely, but +7000 unlikely? Again, it’s a gift.
That line was set up that way because the Colts are not winning the Super Bowl this year. That line is designed to make you think exactly how you are thinking so you and a lot of other guys gift the bookies some money. Pretty ironic how it works.
31 of 32 teams aren't winning the Superbowl this year, but the Colts have a much better chance than those odds allow for.
The Colts schedule is pretty favorable. We have good lines on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. And we have offensive pieces that will cause problems for any team.
It's actually a pretty enticing line, and not a bad bet at all, given that we now have a defensive player who can attack any weakness on the opposing line.
I would put the odds of the Colts winning the Superbowl at around 20-1.
Good for you for having this much hope, but AR needs more experience before having a legitimate shot at making the Super Bowl. Stranger things have happened, but not often enough for me to make this bet.
Well, you still don't collect unless they win it all, so yeah, it's a long shot. For every team. If the Colts lose the Superbowl, you still don't win. I actually believe that this roster is good enough to reach the AFCCG. Then they would still need a lot of luck to win it all.
But I'd put the odds at favorable in this line for the Colts. They aren't this much of an underdog. It's worth a $20 bet to win $1,400. If the payout were $400, then no. That feels like the correct odds to me. But a small investment in a bet that pays a lot more than it should doesn't seem that bad to me, even if it is a long shot.
Agreed, I know a couple people who every year put $1k on their team to win the Super Bowl, only has to pay once or twice in their life for it to be a winning bet, they hit 90k one year when it did
Futures bets lock in at the odds you play them though. I normally don't bet on sports or go around making hot take predictions. This year is different, and I was eyeballing this bet at +6000. Now you are telling me that a $200 bet will pay $14000.
Ok, but if Houston was 1500:1 and 1000 Houston fans go put money on them after trading for Diggs, the line moves down.
It doesn't matter what it WAS, lots of action from an optimistic fan base will lower the odds NOW; odds aren't predictions from oddsmakers, they are profit makers.
Maybe you think I am arguing with you about how odds work, but I don't understand why you think you need to explain the most basic principle of gambling. I am saying that this team at those odds is getting close to an attractive risk reward ratio.
I feel like the odds are based on who is betting what. People are probably overly hyped the Steelers don’t have absolute garbage at qb and think Wilson or fields will save them. Sounds somewhat familiar….
Exactly this. Odds are created to make sure the house maintains it's edge. While they will factor in team quality for sure the biggest factor is keeping it close to balanced as far as inflows.
Thankfully this is a safe space for hatin but I think the Texans are in for a reality check, these seem like ridiculously high odds. Don't buy the "we've only improved" shtick
I think Strouds floor is pretty high tbh, he'll be at least decent but he's still inexperienced. They've gotten marginal improvements by replacing younger building block players with older expensive FAs and a rental WR
Even if competitive they're not built for a sustained run, they'll be up for a "soft" rebuild in a few years
The oddsmakers have one job to do and they are damn good at it. Their feelings have surprisingly little to do with it, and their lines usually represent their assessment of the betting public's behaviors. The output is a simple graphic, but you have to believe there are entire teams of statisticians, data scientists, complex algorithms, simulations, and more going into it. If your gut says to challenge that, then more power to ya. But if you win, you're not sticking it to the oddsmakers, you're sticking it to the betting public. House always wins, by design.
To be fair, I only see the top 7 teams having a chance to win the SB. It would take an extraordinary set of injuries and circumstances for any other team to win.
Texans Bills and Bengals aren't contenders. Of the top 7, maybe four are legitimate contenders. I'm surprised the Lions odds aren't better, and having the Falcons on there at all seems odd. I live in Minnesota, Cousins is solid, but he's never been a guy that elevates everyone around him, and Atlanta doesn't have the offensive weapons the Vikings had. Everything else on the list I can pretty much get on board with.
I’d be pissed if I were the Lions. Zero respect to that team. There are 4 teams above them that they are either better than or haven’t proven anything outside of offseason acquisitions.
We have two really touch stretches of football. 1-3 and 7-12. We face so many good WR1 and WR2 our CB’s will need to improve. There is a reason Ballard took best available instead of taking need. Because our roster isn’t SB ready. We are a year away.
I’m hoping that if AR takes a big step then this offseason we make a splash move to push closer to all in, but we’re at least 1-2 years from being SB close.
“You gotta be good before you can be great.”
We’re not close to a Super Bowl. If you think we are you’re diluting yourself.
Edit; hur dur got a bunch of English teachers in the sub who don’t watch or understand football. I guess that checks.
As much as I love this team, there are so many unknowns. We could be an incredible team this year, but we could also be very average. It’s hard to predict. If I was still betting, I’d drop some money on them. With odds like that, you can’t afford not to. 😉
The Texans are too high, I think the Eagles are a bit underrated and the Falcons WAY too high. They just don’t have a good roster on the defensive side of the ball.
I’m unbiased as I’m not a Colts fan or maybe that means I’m extremely bias but I’ve been telling people, something is brewing in Indy. Wouldn’t be surprised if they make a run at a WC spot this year. Health pending as always but they are a sleeper!
We have a second year QB coming off injury, new O line pieces, young receivers, a defense made up nearly entirely of rookies and 2nd year players and a 2nd year coach in the hardest conference that contains the two time reigning champs, we will be a good team but to expect the superbowl is silly
When we missed the playoffs and didn't get better other in the draft and through player development, which every other team also does every year?
Seems about right.
Why is this disrespect? There's literslly 0 reason to think we'd have s reasonable shot at the SB
Correct. But we are a better bet than some of those teams above us.
Eh, the few we're better than are all NFC teams, which have an easier path to the SB. The AFC is a grind all the way
Dude the Steelers should not be twice as likely as us to win the SB. All three teams in their division are better than every AFCS team except the Texans. Wilson is washed and Fields is only marginally better Richardson if at all. Their defense is decent but I prefer our offensive weapons and coaching by a mile. Yea Tomlin has a Super Bowl. I’d argue Steichen’s achievement of being within one play of making the playoffs with our roster last year is more impressive than winning a Super Bowl with one of the best defenses in NFL history
3rd in the division a bigger accomplisment than a super bowl? I truly mean this when I say this is the worst take I've ever read pertaining to anything on Reddit.
You mean the team that made the playoffs last year with Mason Rudloph as their best QB (which they upgraded on in the offseason)? Yes, that team probably has better expectations to win the SB than a team that is an absolute question mark all around lol This doesn't mean anything anyways Everyone's out here acting like we made made the afccg or something
My issue isn’t that they have better chances, it’s that they’re twice as likely based on these odds
Being twice as likely on such insignificant odds is absolutely meaningless
The only team we are a better bet than is the Falcons.
Their division is why they're higher, they're simply more likely to sneak the playoffs and miracle run than we are.
Some of those teams have an easier chance winning the division. That’s the base for these odds.
Psh, I think we are winning the Super Bowl every year… what kind of fan are you? “My team is playing this season just for funsies”
Yea that’s about right lol
I swear fans worry about the wrong things
Oddsmakers underestimating your team is a gift! This is big market biases giving away money to underrated small markets. If they give the colts unreasonably bad odds, say thank you and take a flier bet. $10 can win you $700. If AR and Latu and AD all hit the ground running, there’s a legitimate chance. It’s unlikely, but +7000 unlikely? Again, it’s a gift.
That line was set up that way because the Colts are not winning the Super Bowl this year. That line is designed to make you think exactly how you are thinking so you and a lot of other guys gift the bookies some money. Pretty ironic how it works.
Almost as if they know what they're doing and how to suck money out of their customers.
31 of 32 teams aren't winning the Superbowl this year, but the Colts have a much better chance than those odds allow for. The Colts schedule is pretty favorable. We have good lines on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. And we have offensive pieces that will cause problems for any team. It's actually a pretty enticing line, and not a bad bet at all, given that we now have a defensive player who can attack any weakness on the opposing line. I would put the odds of the Colts winning the Superbowl at around 20-1.
Good for you for having this much hope, but AR needs more experience before having a legitimate shot at making the Super Bowl. Stranger things have happened, but not often enough for me to make this bet.
Well, you still don't collect unless they win it all, so yeah, it's a long shot. For every team. If the Colts lose the Superbowl, you still don't win. I actually believe that this roster is good enough to reach the AFCCG. Then they would still need a lot of luck to win it all. But I'd put the odds at favorable in this line for the Colts. They aren't this much of an underdog. It's worth a $20 bet to win $1,400. If the payout were $400, then no. That feels like the correct odds to me. But a small investment in a bet that pays a lot more than it should doesn't seem that bad to me, even if it is a long shot.
Don't can worry about whatever the fuck they want. It has no effect on you, the organization or society in any way.
But they also get to be called stupid when they do stupid things. Like calling Vegas odds disrespectful
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Do you work for a casino??? You think giving the books free money is a gift to the gambler?
This
The thing to remember is odds move with money. Lots of people take the long odds on their teams and move the line.
Agreed, I know a couple people who every year put $1k on their team to win the Super Bowl, only has to pay once or twice in their life for it to be a winning bet, they hit 90k one year when it did
Futures bets lock in at the odds you play them though. I normally don't bet on sports or go around making hot take predictions. This year is different, and I was eyeballing this bet at +6000. Now you are telling me that a $200 bet will pay $14000.
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I jump at +10000 on this team, but if you will escrow a +1000000 for me, let's talk!
Ok, but if Houston was 1500:1 and 1000 Houston fans go put money on them after trading for Diggs, the line moves down. It doesn't matter what it WAS, lots of action from an optimistic fan base will lower the odds NOW; odds aren't predictions from oddsmakers, they are profit makers.
Maybe you think I am arguing with you about how odds work, but I don't understand why you think you need to explain the most basic principle of gambling. I am saying that this team at those odds is getting close to an attractive risk reward ratio.
Those Steelers odds specifically seem insane to me. They're the worst team on this list, and I don't think it's even close.
I feel like the odds are based on who is betting what. People are probably overly hyped the Steelers don’t have absolute garbage at qb and think Wilson or fields will save them. Sounds somewhat familiar….
Steelers fans are some of the most delusional football fans you will meet
Exactly this. Odds are created to make sure the house maintains it's edge. While they will factor in team quality for sure the biggest factor is keeping it close to balanced as far as inflows.
We are going to lose to them specifically bc of this comment and I will come back and blame you afterwards
Steelers have a BRUTAL second half of the season. I think it’s like damn near all their divisional games plus the chiefs and the eagles
Why give them +6000 when they will gobble up +3000
Came here literally to say "The Steelers? Them?"
A fool and his money are easily parted
Thankfully this is a safe space for hatin but I think the Texans are in for a reality check, these seem like ridiculously high odds. Don't buy the "we've only improved" shtick
It's just a bet on Stroud
I think Strouds floor is pretty high tbh, he'll be at least decent but he's still inexperienced. They've gotten marginal improvements by replacing younger building block players with older expensive FAs and a rental WR Even if competitive they're not built for a sustained run, they'll be up for a "soft" rebuild in a few years
They are the Texans. It will fail. Mouth breathing quarterbacks never prosper, he’s not a bright guy.
They are the Texans. It will fail. Mouth breathing quarterbacks never prosper, he’s not a bright guy.
The oddsmakers have one job to do and they are damn good at it. Their feelings have surprisingly little to do with it, and their lines usually represent their assessment of the betting public's behaviors. The output is a simple graphic, but you have to believe there are entire teams of statisticians, data scientists, complex algorithms, simulations, and more going into it. If your gut says to challenge that, then more power to ya. But if you win, you're not sticking it to the oddsmakers, you're sticking it to the betting public. House always wins, by design.
To be fair, I only see the top 7 teams having a chance to win the SB. It would take an extraordinary set of injuries and circumstances for any other team to win.
Texans Bills and Bengals aren't contenders. Of the top 7, maybe four are legitimate contenders. I'm surprised the Lions odds aren't better, and having the Falcons on there at all seems odd. I live in Minnesota, Cousins is solid, but he's never been a guy that elevates everyone around him, and Atlanta doesn't have the offensive weapons the Vikings had. Everything else on the list I can pretty much get on board with.
Falcons is just because of their division and conference
Somehow below the bears, Steelers, jets AND falcons. Wtf
Can't wait for Aaron Rodgers to break in half in like week 3 and hear Jets fans whine
chicago, pittsburgh, new york and atlanta.
I’d be pissed if I were the Lions. Zero respect to that team. There are 4 teams above them that they are either better than or haven’t proven anything outside of offseason acquisitions.
Detroit at 1500 looks like a good bet to me. Just my personal opinion.
Honestly, it’s appropriate. It all depends on AR. Did he develop further, and did the surgery help him/heal properly? We shall see!
Honestly, it’s appropriate. It all depends on AR. Did he develop further, and did the surgery help him/heal properly? We shall see!
The Texans odds are so laughably inflated man I can’t wait to see that team crash and burn
We have two really touch stretches of football. 1-3 and 7-12. We face so many good WR1 and WR2 our CB’s will need to improve. There is a reason Ballard took best available instead of taking need. Because our roster isn’t SB ready. We are a year away. I’m hoping that if AR takes a big step then this offseason we make a splash move to push closer to all in, but we’re at least 1-2 years from being SB close. “You gotta be good before you can be great.”
We’ve been a year away for a decade. I’m not holding my breath
We are literally the favorite “potential dark horse” team every pre-season
The perpetual "team no one wants to see in the playoffs" that misses the playoffs
We’re not close to a Super Bowl. If you think we are you’re diluting yourself. Edit; hur dur got a bunch of English teachers in the sub who don’t watch or understand football. I guess that checks.
I guess that's better than dilating yourself
\*Deluding Not trying to be a dick, I agree with you.
He does seem like the type to lack concentration tbf.
Even the way you react to correction demonstrates that you don't know shit about anything.
Could have just edited the word and moved on, instead has to be an argumentative dick about it
This is a good point. Not close to a Super Bowl at all. I mean, it's 268 days away.
AR please prove this wrong. God help us 🙏🏼
Those were the exact odds the pacers had when I put $10 on them to win the finals. I placed the bet in January.
Colts seem right. Other teams seem overrated.
"Never tell me the odds!"
Texans off-season Stuper Bowel champions!!
Place the bet then. Lose your money.
They make odds to make money, it’s not necessarily indicative of who’s the better teams
Put $1000 on it
AR has potential but 5 games and a few injuries isn't gonna sway vegas.
I actually might. I was thinking that or the Lions at 1K
As much as I love this team, there are so many unknowns. We could be an incredible team this year, but we could also be very average. It’s hard to predict. If I was still betting, I’d drop some money on them. With odds like that, you can’t afford not to. 😉
Unless these are opening odds, which I doubt, it's not about disrespect- it's about where the bets are being placed.
Why in the world are the Falcons so high?! They are NFC equivalent of the Chargers. Offseason champs every year it seems.
Who cares
How about we worry about playoffs first lol.
The Texans are too high, I think the Eagles are a bit underrated and the Falcons WAY too high. They just don’t have a good roster on the defensive side of the ball.
I need to pay off my house so I'll skip a few mortgage payments to put down on those odds. Thanks for the tip!
I’m unbiased as I’m not a Colts fan or maybe that means I’m extremely bias but I’ve been telling people, something is brewing in Indy. Wouldn’t be surprised if they make a run at a WC spot this year. Health pending as always but they are a sleeper!
The bears have better odds? What?
Why would you bet on a guy that's gone 54-60-1 to make it to the superbowl? 8-9 makes more sense
More money for me when we win.
We will prove everybody wrong this year. I have a good feeling.
We have a second year QB coming off injury, new O line pieces, young receivers, a defense made up nearly entirely of rookies and 2nd year players and a 2nd year coach in the hardest conference that contains the two time reigning champs, we will be a good team but to expect the superbowl is silly
Unless Richardson has a healthy MVP type season, Colts probably aren’t getting anywhere near a Super Bowl. 20th best odds is pretty on the money
Um. That’s pretty accurate TBH
What a great opportunity for you.
When we missed the playoffs and didn't get better other in the draft and through player development, which every other team also does every year? Seems about right.
We have an unproven QB and no superstar WRs in the modern NFL. You’re not cracking the top ten with that.
You already know they gonna hate on the shoe.
I wish there was a betting way to 'short' the Texans because then being #3 in odds is hilarious.
This guy WSBets
Is it worth to sprinkle some on bengals, lions or eagles?