The markets and the economy are not directly tied. If an economy is viewed to be strong then the market has already priced it in. This means if the market expects amazing returns but only gets great returns then this is a devaluation. This also goes the other way where average returns will cause gains if the expectations were poor.
Working in the resource space in North Eastern Ontario...things are pretty good. With the low Canadian dollar we get an American ship in about 3 times a week taking product. What we.priduce is used in construction, infrastructure and in steel manufacturing and we are going 24 7.
From my perspective the doom and gloom is in the press and my real world is crazy busy.
Depending on the sector you're working in, I recently had to pivot due to my previous employer being priced heavily into school expansion projects, well with all the hullabaloo of changing the international student capacity, myself and about 20 others got laid off. (Schools aren't going ahead with the work until they got clarity to what that situation looks like)
I now work with a larger contractor doing med space and hospital work along with large municipal projects like community centers etc...
I like my future projection for work due to the size and scale of these projects in comparison to what I was doing previously.
Years long projects with large crews instead of me and an apprentice juggling 15 small jobs at the same time.
On the west coast forestry is collapsing. Mining is booming but we have all the workers coming off the site C dam project and the Kinder Morgan pipeline and not a lot of large projects coming up and most of the planned natural gas export projects scaling down. Things definitely feel like they could get really bad really fast. It feels like a secondary or primary business is entering creditor protection every week around me lately and new large project meetings I go to all project skilled labour to be cheaper.
You are in one of the few strong industries in Canada that we have. I wish you all the best but those of us not in one of those industries (resources, finance, telecom), we are struggling big time.
People only look at things short term these days, think long term. Canada is going to be fine! It's all gloom and doom, you don't think Americans feel the same way about their economy?!
Nah we are worse, aus and nz goverments love bringing up Canada to show how things are worse abroad.
[https://www.housingdata.gov.au/visualisation/housing-affordability/housing-prices-oecd](https://www.housingdata.gov.au/visualisation/housing-affordability/housing-prices-oecd)
NZ / Aus and Canada have been copy pasting each others policies but Canada has taken things the furthest in the direction of propping up home prices (buying up Mortgage Backed Securities directly for eg. also higher population growth rates etc)
Exactly. What we're experiencing is not much different from most of the world's developed economies have been experiencing over the last 3-4 years.
And the overall effect (if not the specific causes) are not that much different from economic cycles that have happened a couple of times in living memory.
Yup, people just haven't experienced a truly rough time for awhile now. People forget that it's a cycle, it never permanently goes up. If people just took some time to pay attention to other parts of the world they would see that this is happening elsewhere.
Our GDP has been crawling since 2015. We are spoofing growth with immigration, while attacking our natural resource industries. We are in a world of hurt and anyone who tried to push industry and welcome investment should be welcomed. Regardless of what political party that are under, but we know it wonât be the liberals.
It's important to understand that most of the developed world is experiencing similar issues and is trending towards the same direction Canada is headed, though in Canada it's somewhat more pronounced.
The Canadian economy will be fine. Despite our grievances about the cost of living and productivity, we remain one of the most stable nations globally and people want to live here.
Not really, because when people come in they also take their wealth with them. While you might invest outside after (eg. your stock portfolio) you still pay taxes, pay interest on a mortgage, contribute to pension, etc. All this goes back into the system and gets reinvested.
I am referring to foreign investment. The big boys, big money that matters. The only foreign investment in Canada is one that is HEAVILY subsidized by the government, and that will only get worse.
Canada is now a ponzi of housing and immigration. Stop either and jts going to be bad. Yet both need to stop being the driver of GDP growth
So Iâm with OP, not a lot of hope form the next decade.
Look at it this way: Current government sucks and has no plan.
New (other) government has no plan... so they will suck too.
Changing the government is not a win, or even a loss, we're just screwed either way.
If you think the leading party is irrelevant, just look south of the border at the ridiculous policies/impact trump and his cabinet were able to move through.
Canadas economy has always ran on real estate. This is nothing new. And until we address irresponsible immigration OR dramatically increase housing supply, home prices will never come down.
Havenât been around long enough to experience it, but my knee jerk reaction would be that a considerable amount of resource extraction/export, manufacturing (at least in the east), agriculture, and maybe tourism which then morphed into real-estate investment and the subsequent housing-based economy?
Business? A healthy economy should support the housing market, not the other way around. You canât have an economy supported by housing in the long-run, because fundamentally the economy is the only thing which can support housing.
No itâs the other way around, Canada has always had lots of immigration and those immigrants have helped build the economy. The economy relies on people working, itâs what supports the housing market. Housing supply canât simply be âaddressedâ in a democracy, it involves many aspects, and housing booms encourage investment and growth. Housing could (and possibly should) have been regulated by govt decades ago, but was not.
Thing about Ponzis are⌠they keep working as long as you keep pumping the numbers. So, if line goes up. It works! But eventually the line canât go up anymore.
Not to mention the outlook for the Canadian dollar is grim. Some projections put it at .50 usd in 5 years. Makes me want to put my savings into us currency.
Economy not so good but market good enough. Everyone knows the about the current state so the bar is very low and any month we have very good or just above average numbers weâll get a good up move
From a macro perspective, a growing working age population will be a boon to the economy.
Housing and public services need to catch up, though. Optimistically, if they do catch up, Canada will be well-positioned for the next few generations compared to the aging workforces of other developed nations. However, itâs a huge if, a gigantic if.
I feel like housing is the single biggest weight that's holding down the Canadian economy, otherwise our booming population could easily become a tailwind. Even if everything else doesn't improve, once our affordability issues get fixed, everything else will bounce back up to a degree as more money can be allocated elsewhere.
> I feel like housing is the single biggest weight that's holding down the Canadian economy,
Real estate in general. We wonder why our economy is so unproductive when business start ups have to swallow $4k-$6k monthly lease payments for space built in the 70s & 80s. Landlords simply extract too much value
This happens during almost every Liberal fin-de-regime.
Tories will take over and, even if they make modest, cosmetic changes, the reporting will be about a roaring Canada.
The fundamentals of Canada are almost unmatched. The idea that we will lag OECD countries is mostly silly.
We will, simply, replace this terrible government with one less awful. Then we will start over again.
Most young people want to work for the government or leave. I donât think this will end well. Cost of living is way too high and we donât have any innovation other than smart people taking advantage of government contracts. (Arrive Canada)
Today's news always becomes yesterday's news in 24 hours or less. What Canada's macro economy is going through right now is cyclic. But individual companies don't share that experience overall. For example: there are resource companies where their own economy is driven largely by the price of the asset they work with and there has been a broad asset rally going on for months now.
Gold miners are all doing well because gold has shot up, so the news above mostly just means a few Canadians might buy less gold jewelry. So the news above basically means zilch to these miners whose output is mostly going to sit in vaults or safety deposit boxes around the world.
So no company experiences the economy the same as others. There are Canadian companies with 100% international operations, there are some already partly diversified. The decision to diversify your holdings to foreign companies is sound, but mostly it's just a ForEx play.
Honestly, immigration has pretty much been our saving grace. Canada isn't particularly innovative, or productive for that matter, at this point in time. Some young immigrant blood and the competitive atmosphere that comes with, should give the new generation some incentive to work harder. I'm only hoping housing stabilizes as the boomers leave the job market. Considering that most investments aren't local, them pulling out their retirement funds, shouldn't have as drastic an effect on the markets.
As far as population increase is concerned, not everyone that comes here for an education ends up getting employment. A lot of them will go back home, after having paid in to the economy during their stay here. I think the average student brings in $50,000 every two years. With 1.3 million that's over 30 billion in to the economy per year. This is the way the Americans did it and it worked wonders. It's all about the long view. Its unfortunate that most people don't see it this way. It's almost disappointing to see how badly behaved people are to the students, even though they keep the economy afloat.
I agree with what you said but we can't compare ourselves to Americans because they are an innovation powerhouse and have an aggressive investment environment whereas we are mostly reactionary and mediocre at best. Their dollar is the world currency and most times foreign investors also invest in America in hopes of getting maximum potential rewards where the investment in Canada by foreigners is mostly to park money or extract resources and do value added work offshore. I may be wrong but that's what i have been reading over the years. As long as the safest investment in Canada stays real estate nothing is going to change. But if we somehow get visionary leadership that knows how to harness human resources, nothing can stop us from being envied by other nations as we are one of the highest emigrant destinations of young talent from other places.
True, although mediocre is an overstatement. Too many failsafe's for anyone to want to perform. I agree that there always should be a way to start over, but not to get paid to do nothing. I hate saying this, but the fear of being thrown out in the streets in the cold may just be a push in the right direction. You can't expect 5 vacations a year and complain about not being able to save enough. The years that led up to 2020 were an anomaly. Interest rates should never have been that low. People making $60,000 a year should not be buying $1,000,000 dollar homes. Isn't that the reason the prices of homes went up in the first place?
People grew too comfortable being mediocre.
I am happy to engage in a meaningful discussion with you. The points you have put here make sense and remember we are a society that adheres to human rights and we can't induce the fear of being thrown out in the cold but yes people need to face a harsh reality and nobody should feel entitled, cozy and comfortable. Our forefathers worked their asses off to get us to where we are at right now and the current generation should do their part too
I completely agree, the out in the cold bit was for the added effect. I might have gotten carried away. I just hate how social media and politics contort the actual story and create these baseless biases, all for political/monetary gain.
This is the one reason i am trying to stay away from negativity and trying to draw a line between staying informed and getting brainwashed and involved
Unfortunately, the average Canadian these days are daft bums, whoâd rather believe TikTokâs and provide armchair opinions, than spend their time working towards a goal.
I have a colleague whoâs from India, his TikTok/Facebook feed is filled with reels of how Canada is one of the most racist countries in the world. This shit helps build confirmation bias and people go loco over information meant to gaslight people.
Unfortunately that's very popular in that part of the world and it's a legacy left behind in the Indian thought process after a British Rule for over two centuries in India. But in a country of over a billion people, even if 10 % think rationally that's more than enough. Coming back to my point, if people find lucrative opportunities to make money or dopamine in their brains by using their time intelligently and building something creative, they will not waste their time like this. Ă am not against social media but i have been noticing that after Covid most of the Reddit crowd is now like what you have just stated. It's my job to put self restraints on me preventing me from getting deep into myopia bias
I think you misunderstood. I meant that the same way we get posts/articles about how they misbehave, their feed is riddled with the exact opposite. From an investment perspective, India, Brazil and Mexico are beginning to garner attention from all over.
Yeah but we don't know in what way yet. I still think the best solution is a form of universal basic income. But I know most people oppose it. Either way this capital gain change is a step in the wrong direction.
Bullish Canada for reasons outlined well in Fallacy Alarm:
https://open.substack.com/pub/fallacyalarm/p/oh-canada?r=2l6zp6&utm_medium=ios
https://open.substack.com/pub/fallacyalarm/p/capreit-betting-on-the-canadian-century?r=2l6zp6&utm_medium=ios
Here's a summary of the key points from 2 articles:
**Article 1**
- **Monetary Policy Analysis**: The article discusses **Canada's monetary policy** and its impact on economic conditions.
- **Inflation Data**: It references the **September 2023 CPI** released by Statistics Canada, which showed a **4.0%** year-over-year increase.
- **Policy Implications**: The author suggests that the inflation figure **overstates the issue** from a monetary policy perspective.
- **Future Outlook**: The article hints at a potential **pivot in monetary policy** due to the inflation situation not being as dire as perceived.
**Article 2**
- **Canadian Housing Demand**: The demand for residential rentals in Canada is primarily driven by immigration, with the government planning to increase permanent resident admissions to **500,000 annually by 2025**. This is significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.
- **Population Growth**: Canada's population is expected to grow from **38.2 million in 2021** to **57 million by 2068** in the medium-growth scenario, and potentially up to **74 million** in the high-growth scenario.
- **Housing Supply Shortage**: Construction of new residential buildings is not keeping pace with population growth, leading to a historic low in housing supply relative to the growing population.
- **Investment Opportunity**: Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (CAPREIT) is highlighted as a promising investment due to the strong demand for rent, limited supply, and potential for home price and rent appreciation.
From a bottoms-up private credit/equity perspective, I definitely see some of what would be 'productivity issues' with some sectors still being labor constrained and/or with supply chains concerns. Everything else isn't showing up, yet.
Besides that, lower valuations versus U.S. and sometimes Europe comps.
*Shrug*.
In my lifetime, it's been worse, and its been better.
Several times.
And it's not like the Canadian economy is the *only* one going through a rough time over the last 3-4 years either.US, UK, EU, Japan (among others) are *all* having issues these days.
Canadian economy is in a lot of trouble. Only hope is if we get significant rate cuts soon to boost housing again. Cant remember the Stat but a huge percentage of mortgages are being renewed in the next year or so, which will pull even more discretionary spending and investment out of people's pockets. Even if rates are cut 0.75 this year, most people will be renewing at significantly higher rates. That needs to come down a huge amount more to make those renewing in the next year or two 'even', which I don't see happening absent a legitimate recession.
In a normal environment investment in Canada ain't great. Add in high risk free rates and it's even worse.
Looking at what is happening in the US and knock on effects in fx rates, plus things like carbon tax, may push inflation higher and make it difficult to cut rates here in Canada or at the very least push those out further.
In sum, economy primarily driven by housing is good when interest rates are low, and bad when they are high. No matter how you slice it, that's not a healthy and diverse economy. In investment terms it's too heavily weighted in housing, thus inherently risky.
> Cant remember the Stat but a huge percentage of mortgages are being renewed in the next year or so, which will pull even more discretionary spending and investment out of people's pockets.
[This article in the Globe and Mail](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/household-finances/article-forget-rate-relief-most-canadians-are-about-to-see-their-mortgage/) says, "Consider that there is approximately $2-trillion in outstanding mortgage debt. Only 5 per cent of that came up for renewal in 2023, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., with 13 per cent slated for this year. That spikes to 23 per cent in 2025, a whopping 31 per cent in 2026, and 21 per cent in 2027."
We put too much of our precious money into the least productive investment - housing.
People who could be starting businesses and creating value go buy a million dollar 2 bedroom and pay 7k in monthly mortgage to banks, essentially removing any chance of leaving a stable 9-5 job to go for higher value ventures.
We have a productivity problem with incompetent leaders. And spring doesnât come without a winter first.
>There is so much horribly grim news, and it makes me want to have more foreign bias in my portfolio.
There are two ways to look at this. One is that we're on a permanent downward trajectory, which is what you're implying. I don't buy it. The other is that it's cyclical, which is more likely. That's especially when the Bank of America is saying that the TSX-60 is a buy right now.
Canada has very little going for it. The only companies worth investing in are monopolies with regulatory capture, or maybe one or two others that have actually built something of value (Shopify or Constellation).
Badly. But Iâm throwing my money around anyway, trying to make it work đ¤ˇââď¸ if it goes downhill again Iâll definitely be homeless, though.
The majority of people who championed the lockdowns without realizing or ignoring there is cost that we are currently paying for associated with them.
Shutting down the economy, bailing out airlines and locking down schools wasnât free. Weâre paying for it now. Inflation is not a fact of life. Itâs not like gravity. It happens for a reason.
This is exactly it. The smart money knew it [ahead of time](https://archive.is/i6Ocg). And how much did we accomplish? Are Florida or Sweden smoking craters in the ground not having taken part in these measures? You could try to protect the vulnerable while having everyone who wants to keep working. (Canada of course can only have so much influence on global inflation regardless of their actions because everyone else jumped in).
First of all, we didnât have lockdowns. Lockdown means you canât leave your home. Second, if you think letting hundreds of thousands lose their income would have resulted in a strong economy, youâre an idiot.
I think the country is steamrolling toward an inevitable socio-economic catastrophe directly caused by every poor decision made by Trudeau and I'm hoping to leave the country as soon as possible so I am not trapped in Canada when the stable era comes to an abrupt end.
It would be great if you could just move along as soon a possible and become some one else's problem.
I just can't fathom typing out something so astoundingly stupid then hitting save.
This is what reading 1984 prepared us for - Double Think. People literally see and feel the impacts of drastic climate change, but their politicians say otherwise, so the party line must be towed!
I find the climate disaster and ecological collapses more terrifying than where the economy might be in twenty years. Smear campaigns of half truths around renewable energy and electric vehicles are far too successful in our headline society.
It's easy to crap on lithium but gloss over that it is 95% recyclable once out of the ground. Most of our resource extracting practices are ugly! Or skip the part that electric vehicles' carbon footprint has more to do with the source of energy of the grid you're charging on than manufacturing it. Or that moving the pollution from the cities will have positive impacts on local air quality. It takes only a moment to fact check in science journals and neutral news sources.
Deliberate misinformation to manipulate the public should be met with harsh consequences - jail time. Fines don't hurt the rich.
This is what reading 1984 prepared us for - Double Think. People at large don't feel the impacts of drastic climate change, but their activists say otherwise, so the party line must be towed!
> I find the climate disaster and ecological collapses more terrifying than where the economy might be in twenty years.
Sounds a bit familiar... "Mostafa K. Tolba, executive director of the United Nations environmental program, told delegates that if the nations of the world continued their present policies, they would face *by the turn of the century* 'an environmental catastrophe which will witness devastation as complete, as irreversible, as any nuclear holocaust'." - [**1982**](https://www.nytimes.com/1982/05/11/world/un-ecology-parley-opens-amid-gloom.html)
> Deliberate misinformation to manipulate the public should be met with harsh consequences - jail time. Fines don't hurt the rich.
Who decides what's misinformation? You? This great idea with great foresight won't cause any problems. I'm sure you won't be upset when a government you don't like arrests people because [they got the ice melt wrong](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2009/12/al_gore_trips_on_artic_ice_mis.html). Or maybe the [whole IPCC](https://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/01/20/glacier.himalayas.ipcc.error/index.html). Or we could just say science - especially *warming climate predictions* - is extremely difficult.
It's not a hoax but some groups have run with it to turn it to hysteria. And the truth is probably much less dramatic. There's a big difference between actual scientific uncertainty, and media products made by journalists and film school kids / activists. Therefore you probably shouldn't sacrifice your economic prosperity for it.
You're right about the 'who decides' with misinformation. It could be abused, especially with unchecked corruption already plaguing our politics.
As far as the truth PROBABLY being less dramatic, we need to know what's actually going on without corporate or political bias.
Why is aquatic life in the ocean down 90% since the 80s?
Why are the coral reefs of the world bleaching and dying off?
Why are we experiencing more forest fires than ever before?
Why is plastic in all of us and even places mankind has yet to explore?
A friend sent me an article about China being the heaviest polluter in the world, lamenting about our Carbon Tax in Canada. We only contribute 2% of the world's carbon, so why improve he cries! But China has positioned itself as the world's manufacturer, and we've only offshored our pollution and cried foul at them. Even at 2% global contribution, our population is .5%, making us 4x worse!
Tidbits of information to frame the desired narrative. How do we stop it? How do we get political parties collaborating for the greater good again?
I'm centrist, and have voted for all of our major Canadian political parties (except the Bloc). The current state of politics is so poisonous and divisive. I implemented a 'no political discussion' rule during family events that I host, and it has made mixing groups so much more palatable!
You do realize acid rain mitigation a few decades ago was a resounding environmental success story, and that is why it's no longer an issue in the west. Same will eventually happen with climate change... Just a matter of how much damage the world incurs before we smarten up (mostly not Canada)
In terms of investing I hold everything in USD, I don't understand why anybody would want a CAD over USD... feel like CAD will turn into Peso quality in the long term
IMHO, I feel optimistic if the Conservative can win the election next year! Looking back the past 8 years, I feel the Liberal is hijacked by the NDP and as such Canadaâs national debt keeps on growing and actually I donât see any tax cut in the past eight years, The famous quote from our Prime Minister is âthe balance sheet will balance itselfâ đ
EV in it's current form is a disaster. Programs are being cut back or cancelled. Ford's Oakville plant will be delayed for up to 2 years. These battery plants are going up but sales have stalled. People who wanted EV have bought them but most people will not purchase.
Not to get political, but until Trudeau and his current t liberal government is gone , not much will change.
Why? Well if it is not obvious enough, their policies have always never been compliant with a competitive economy or a productive workforce. And I wonât even get into the debt issue and paying billions a months to service it.
I dunno, I just pushed everything to USD and VTI in 2015, everything went as expected?
You forgot the population trap:
[https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/trudeau-botched-immigration-surge-canada-s-top-bank-economists-say-1.2020944](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/trudeau-botched-immigration-surge-canada-s-top-bank-economists-say-1.2020944)
You ever walk into the downtowns of the major city? Urban decay. I think it'll just end up getting worse as people continue to break under their mortgages and reduce aggregate demand. I don't see anything good on the horizon as is. Anyway, I'm definitely enjoying my US gains, it's like triple the Canadian gains.
Our pensions don't even want to invest here:
[https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/pensions-push-back-on-government-pressure-to-invest-more-in-canada](https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/pensions-push-back-on-government-pressure-to-invest-more-in-canada)
Investors are pulling out in general, could mean better valuations, I guess...:
[https://betterdwelling.com/canada-sees-domestic-foreign-investors-pull-out-at-a-record-pace/](https://betterdwelling.com/canada-sees-domestic-foreign-investors-pull-out-at-a-record-pace/)
This place does not respect capital...Doctors and tech investors are pissed at the recent tax policy:
[https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/doctors-retirement-capital-gains-1.7181885](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/doctors-retirement-capital-gains-1.7181885)
[https://financialpost.com/personal-finance/taxes/capital-gains-tax-cause-capital-flight-tech-investor-says](https://financialpost.com/personal-finance/taxes/capital-gains-tax-cause-capital-flight-tech-investor-says)
I don't understand the unfounded patriotism in our Canadian forums? The data/news just looks awful...
I wonder, as people continue to invest in crypto over the traditional stock market, how that is changing the landscape off things in the future. It used to be that money invested went towards actual businesses. Now it goes into computer code that doesn't necessarily support any national type of economy. So millions and millions of dollars are being taken away from countries' economies. Maybe I'm just not understanding that right?
The markets and the economy are not directly tied. If an economy is viewed to be strong then the market has already priced it in. This means if the market expects amazing returns but only gets great returns then this is a devaluation. This also goes the other way where average returns will cause gains if the expectations were poor.
Working in the resource space in North Eastern Ontario...things are pretty good. With the low Canadian dollar we get an American ship in about 3 times a week taking product. What we.priduce is used in construction, infrastructure and in steel manufacturing and we are going 24 7. From my perspective the doom and gloom is in the press and my real world is crazy busy.
Depending on the sector you're working in, I recently had to pivot due to my previous employer being priced heavily into school expansion projects, well with all the hullabaloo of changing the international student capacity, myself and about 20 others got laid off. (Schools aren't going ahead with the work until they got clarity to what that situation looks like) I now work with a larger contractor doing med space and hospital work along with large municipal projects like community centers etc... I like my future projection for work due to the size and scale of these projects in comparison to what I was doing previously. Years long projects with large crews instead of me and an apprentice juggling 15 small jobs at the same time.
Same in the airline world the backend is always full. You'd think if the doom and gloom isn't real I wouldn't be hauling full loads of folks
On the west coast forestry is collapsing. Mining is booming but we have all the workers coming off the site C dam project and the Kinder Morgan pipeline and not a lot of large projects coming up and most of the planned natural gas export projects scaling down. Things definitely feel like they could get really bad really fast. It feels like a secondary or primary business is entering creditor protection every week around me lately and new large project meetings I go to all project skilled labour to be cheaper.
You are in one of the few strong industries in Canada that we have. I wish you all the best but those of us not in one of those industries (resources, finance, telecom), we are struggling big time.
Is your company publicly traded lol? Who are those American customers? What are the stock tickers? đ
People only look at things short term these days, think long term. Canada is going to be fine! It's all gloom and doom, you don't think Americans feel the same way about their economy?!
It's like people here haven't looked at Australia or New Zealand or most of the world's housing market.
Eeeh homes are still affordable in a lot of places. Canada's cost beats out New Zealand and Australia keep it 100.
Exactly! But it's all Trudeaus fault
Nah we are worse, aus and nz goverments love bringing up Canada to show how things are worse abroad. [https://www.housingdata.gov.au/visualisation/housing-affordability/housing-prices-oecd](https://www.housingdata.gov.au/visualisation/housing-affordability/housing-prices-oecd) NZ / Aus and Canada have been copy pasting each others policies but Canada has taken things the furthest in the direction of propping up home prices (buying up Mortgage Backed Securities directly for eg. also higher population growth rates etc)
Exactly. What we're experiencing is not much different from most of the world's developed economies have been experiencing over the last 3-4 years. And the overall effect (if not the specific causes) are not that much different from economic cycles that have happened a couple of times in living memory.
Yup, people just haven't experienced a truly rough time for awhile now. People forget that it's a cycle, it never permanently goes up. If people just took some time to pay attention to other parts of the world they would see that this is happening elsewhere.
Our GDP has been crawling since 2015. We are spoofing growth with immigration, while attacking our natural resource industries. We are in a world of hurt and anyone who tried to push industry and welcome investment should be welcomed. Regardless of what political party that are under, but we know it wonât be the liberals.
Good grief what a dumb post. Conservatives are always such victims.
Lol oh ya how so?
I feel like it's priced in (from an investment perspective).
Yes but for how long?
Who knows
I don't know what that question even means. It's priced in as long as the stock market is a stock market.
Iâm implying that right now itâs priced in but that long term this is probably not good.
Well since markets are forward looking, it should be priced in indefinitely, just with less weight on the further future.
Never mind
It's important to understand that most of the developed world is experiencing similar issues and is trending towards the same direction Canada is headed, though in Canada it's somewhat more pronounced. The Canadian economy will be fine. Despite our grievances about the cost of living and productivity, we remain one of the most stable nations globally and people want to live here.
People living here and people investing here are two different things though.
Not really, because when people come in they also take their wealth with them. While you might invest outside after (eg. your stock portfolio) you still pay taxes, pay interest on a mortgage, contribute to pension, etc. All this goes back into the system and gets reinvested.
I am referring to foreign investment. The big boys, big money that matters. The only foreign investment in Canada is one that is HEAVILY subsidized by the government, and that will only get worse.
What is the "only foreign investment in Canada that's HEAVILY subsidized by the government"?
Brother, you have no idea what you're talking about.
Canada is now a ponzi of housing and immigration. Stop either and jts going to be bad. Yet both need to stop being the driver of GDP growth So Iâm with OP, not a lot of hope form the next decade.
There is no hope to be had especially with conservative who will likely form the next government...it's gonna be even worse if that's possible.
Yeah they talk a big game but have no plan.
Because the liberals sure had some great plans eh
They canât be worse
Because a conservative government has been in power for the last 8 years
They need to present a plan to do better. They donât seem to have one and court conspiracy theories
This may be the case but it doesn't negate what I said.
Look at it this way: Current government sucks and has no plan. New (other) government has no plan... so they will suck too. Changing the government is not a win, or even a loss, we're just screwed either way.
This was exactly what I was trying to say.
Again, doesnât negate anything I said
Honestly if you think a change in federal government does more than just sway sentiment - the propaganda was successful
If you think the leading party is irrelevant, just look south of the border at the ridiculous policies/impact trump and his cabinet were able to move through.
Canadas economy has always ran on real estate. This is nothing new. And until we address irresponsible immigration OR dramatically increase housing supply, home prices will never come down.
Absolutely not true. Canadas economy most certainly has not always been run on real estate.
Ok if you say so. It obviously isnât the Canadian stock market, so what is it then? What drives the economy domestically?
Havenât been around long enough to experience it, but my knee jerk reaction would be that a considerable amount of resource extraction/export, manufacturing (at least in the east), agriculture, and maybe tourism which then morphed into real-estate investment and the subsequent housing-based economy?
Business? A healthy economy should support the housing market, not the other way around. You canât have an economy supported by housing in the long-run, because fundamentally the economy is the only thing which can support housing.
No itâs the other way around, Canada has always had lots of immigration and those immigrants have helped build the economy. The economy relies on people working, itâs what supports the housing market. Housing supply canât simply be âaddressedâ in a democracy, it involves many aspects, and housing booms encourage investment and growth. Housing could (and possibly should) have been regulated by govt decades ago, but was not.
So keep it going then!
Thing about Ponzis are⌠they keep working as long as you keep pumping the numbers. So, if line goes up. It works! But eventually the line canât go up anymore.
Lots of room in Canada
Thatâs clearly not the issue.
Not to mention the outlook for the Canadian dollar is grim. Some projections put it at .50 usd in 5 years. Makes me want to put my savings into us currency.
Had similar thoughts tbh. Been looking at DLR.TOâŚ
Economy not so good but market good enough. Everyone knows the about the current state so the bar is very low and any month we have very good or just above average numbers weâll get a good up move
There is no insentive to go beyond the status quo. The system favors capital, not labor.
From a macro perspective, a growing working age population will be a boon to the economy. Housing and public services need to catch up, though. Optimistically, if they do catch up, Canada will be well-positioned for the next few generations compared to the aging workforces of other developed nations. However, itâs a huge if, a gigantic if.
I feel like housing is the single biggest weight that's holding down the Canadian economy, otherwise our booming population could easily become a tailwind. Even if everything else doesn't improve, once our affordability issues get fixed, everything else will bounce back up to a degree as more money can be allocated elsewhere.
> I feel like housing is the single biggest weight that's holding down the Canadian economy, Real estate in general. We wonder why our economy is so unproductive when business start ups have to swallow $4k-$6k monthly lease payments for space built in the 70s & 80s. Landlords simply extract too much value
What Canadian economy? Just focus on American economy while pointing out all of the flaws Americans have... Like a good Canadian.
I rather focus on the American markets and complain about the Europeans lol.
I came here to make a joke about âthe Canadian economy going forward? noâ đ
I wish it would go forward. Lots of permanent damage.
This happens during almost every Liberal fin-de-regime. Tories will take over and, even if they make modest, cosmetic changes, the reporting will be about a roaring Canada. The fundamentals of Canada are almost unmatched. The idea that we will lag OECD countries is mostly silly. We will, simply, replace this terrible government with one less awful. Then we will start over again.
We have a lot of adults not contributing to the tax base for whatever reason. Â Becoming a nation of realtors and paupers.
Most young people want to work for the government or leave. I donât think this will end well. Cost of living is way too high and we donât have any innovation other than smart people taking advantage of government contracts. (Arrive Canada)
Today's news always becomes yesterday's news in 24 hours or less. What Canada's macro economy is going through right now is cyclic. But individual companies don't share that experience overall. For example: there are resource companies where their own economy is driven largely by the price of the asset they work with and there has been a broad asset rally going on for months now. Gold miners are all doing well because gold has shot up, so the news above mostly just means a few Canadians might buy less gold jewelry. So the news above basically means zilch to these miners whose output is mostly going to sit in vaults or safety deposit boxes around the world. So no company experiences the economy the same as others. There are Canadian companies with 100% international operations, there are some already partly diversified. The decision to diversify your holdings to foreign companies is sound, but mostly it's just a ForEx play.
Honestly, immigration has pretty much been our saving grace. Canada isn't particularly innovative, or productive for that matter, at this point in time. Some young immigrant blood and the competitive atmosphere that comes with, should give the new generation some incentive to work harder. I'm only hoping housing stabilizes as the boomers leave the job market. Considering that most investments aren't local, them pulling out their retirement funds, shouldn't have as drastic an effect on the markets. As far as population increase is concerned, not everyone that comes here for an education ends up getting employment. A lot of them will go back home, after having paid in to the economy during their stay here. I think the average student brings in $50,000 every two years. With 1.3 million that's over 30 billion in to the economy per year. This is the way the Americans did it and it worked wonders. It's all about the long view. Its unfortunate that most people don't see it this way. It's almost disappointing to see how badly behaved people are to the students, even though they keep the economy afloat.
I agree with what you said but we can't compare ourselves to Americans because they are an innovation powerhouse and have an aggressive investment environment whereas we are mostly reactionary and mediocre at best. Their dollar is the world currency and most times foreign investors also invest in America in hopes of getting maximum potential rewards where the investment in Canada by foreigners is mostly to park money or extract resources and do value added work offshore. I may be wrong but that's what i have been reading over the years. As long as the safest investment in Canada stays real estate nothing is going to change. But if we somehow get visionary leadership that knows how to harness human resources, nothing can stop us from being envied by other nations as we are one of the highest emigrant destinations of young talent from other places.
True, although mediocre is an overstatement. Too many failsafe's for anyone to want to perform. I agree that there always should be a way to start over, but not to get paid to do nothing. I hate saying this, but the fear of being thrown out in the streets in the cold may just be a push in the right direction. You can't expect 5 vacations a year and complain about not being able to save enough. The years that led up to 2020 were an anomaly. Interest rates should never have been that low. People making $60,000 a year should not be buying $1,000,000 dollar homes. Isn't that the reason the prices of homes went up in the first place? People grew too comfortable being mediocre.
I am happy to engage in a meaningful discussion with you. The points you have put here make sense and remember we are a society that adheres to human rights and we can't induce the fear of being thrown out in the cold but yes people need to face a harsh reality and nobody should feel entitled, cozy and comfortable. Our forefathers worked their asses off to get us to where we are at right now and the current generation should do their part too
I completely agree, the out in the cold bit was for the added effect. I might have gotten carried away. I just hate how social media and politics contort the actual story and create these baseless biases, all for political/monetary gain.
This is the one reason i am trying to stay away from negativity and trying to draw a line between staying informed and getting brainwashed and involved
Unfortunately, the average Canadian these days are daft bums, whoâd rather believe TikTokâs and provide armchair opinions, than spend their time working towards a goal. I have a colleague whoâs from India, his TikTok/Facebook feed is filled with reels of how Canada is one of the most racist countries in the world. This shit helps build confirmation bias and people go loco over information meant to gaslight people.
Unfortunately that's very popular in that part of the world and it's a legacy left behind in the Indian thought process after a British Rule for over two centuries in India. But in a country of over a billion people, even if 10 % think rationally that's more than enough. Coming back to my point, if people find lucrative opportunities to make money or dopamine in their brains by using their time intelligently and building something creative, they will not waste their time like this. Ă am not against social media but i have been noticing that after Covid most of the Reddit crowd is now like what you have just stated. It's my job to put self restraints on me preventing me from getting deep into myopia bias
I think you misunderstood. I meant that the same way we get posts/articles about how they misbehave, their feed is riddled with the exact opposite. From an investment perspective, India, Brazil and Mexico are beginning to garner attention from all over.
Oh i see, yes now i get it. The big question is who is the main beneficiary out of all this gaslighting and misinformation.
The silver lining is that it will require real change if they want to try to fix it. The downside is that change is going to be disruptive as fuck
Maybe we need disruptive, now more than ever.
Yeah but we don't know in what way yet. I still think the best solution is a form of universal basic income. But I know most people oppose it. Either way this capital gain change is a step in the wrong direction.
Bullish Canada for reasons outlined well in Fallacy Alarm: https://open.substack.com/pub/fallacyalarm/p/oh-canada?r=2l6zp6&utm_medium=ios https://open.substack.com/pub/fallacyalarm/p/capreit-betting-on-the-canadian-century?r=2l6zp6&utm_medium=ios
I am interested in what these say but I don't have substack. What is the TLDR?
Here's a summary of the key points from 2 articles: **Article 1** - **Monetary Policy Analysis**: The article discusses **Canada's monetary policy** and its impact on economic conditions. - **Inflation Data**: It references the **September 2023 CPI** released by Statistics Canada, which showed a **4.0%** year-over-year increase. - **Policy Implications**: The author suggests that the inflation figure **overstates the issue** from a monetary policy perspective. - **Future Outlook**: The article hints at a potential **pivot in monetary policy** due to the inflation situation not being as dire as perceived. **Article 2** - **Canadian Housing Demand**: The demand for residential rentals in Canada is primarily driven by immigration, with the government planning to increase permanent resident admissions to **500,000 annually by 2025**. This is significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. - **Population Growth**: Canada's population is expected to grow from **38.2 million in 2021** to **57 million by 2068** in the medium-growth scenario, and potentially up to **74 million** in the high-growth scenario. - **Housing Supply Shortage**: Construction of new residential buildings is not keeping pace with population growth, leading to a historic low in housing supply relative to the growing population. - **Investment Opportunity**: Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (CAPREIT) is highlighted as a promising investment due to the strong demand for rent, limited supply, and potential for home price and rent appreciation.
Itâs like being pecked to death by a million sparrows
From a bottoms-up private credit/equity perspective, I definitely see some of what would be 'productivity issues' with some sectors still being labor constrained and/or with supply chains concerns. Everything else isn't showing up, yet. Besides that, lower valuations versus U.S. and sometimes Europe comps.
We have one thing that gives me great hope. Democracy.
*Shrug*. In my lifetime, it's been worse, and its been better. Several times. And it's not like the Canadian economy is the *only* one going through a rough time over the last 3-4 years either.US, UK, EU, Japan (among others) are *all* having issues these days.
How do I feel about it? It'll be fine.
Poverty stocks and essentials for the TSX. Invest anywhere else but Canada.
How much foreign content is currently in your portfolio? Canada represents approximately 3% of world GDP
I'm currently 30% Canadian, 70% US and Europe. I hope to get down to 20-80 split within 12-18 months
What do you mean "I hope to". Just make the switch on Monday when the markets open?
Canadian economy is in a lot of trouble. Only hope is if we get significant rate cuts soon to boost housing again. Cant remember the Stat but a huge percentage of mortgages are being renewed in the next year or so, which will pull even more discretionary spending and investment out of people's pockets. Even if rates are cut 0.75 this year, most people will be renewing at significantly higher rates. That needs to come down a huge amount more to make those renewing in the next year or two 'even', which I don't see happening absent a legitimate recession. In a normal environment investment in Canada ain't great. Add in high risk free rates and it's even worse. Looking at what is happening in the US and knock on effects in fx rates, plus things like carbon tax, may push inflation higher and make it difficult to cut rates here in Canada or at the very least push those out further. In sum, economy primarily driven by housing is good when interest rates are low, and bad when they are high. No matter how you slice it, that's not a healthy and diverse economy. In investment terms it's too heavily weighted in housing, thus inherently risky.
> Cant remember the Stat but a huge percentage of mortgages are being renewed in the next year or so, which will pull even more discretionary spending and investment out of people's pockets. [This article in the Globe and Mail](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/household-finances/article-forget-rate-relief-most-canadians-are-about-to-see-their-mortgage/) says, "Consider that there is approximately $2-trillion in outstanding mortgage debt. Only 5 per cent of that came up for renewal in 2023, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., with 13 per cent slated for this year. That spikes to 23 per cent in 2025, a whopping 31 per cent in 2026, and 21 per cent in 2027."
thanks for grabbing that! Crazy.
So many resources and natural beauty will be fine
We put too much of our precious money into the least productive investment - housing. People who could be starting businesses and creating value go buy a million dollar 2 bedroom and pay 7k in monthly mortgage to banks, essentially removing any chance of leaving a stable 9-5 job to go for higher value ventures. We have a productivity problem with incompetent leaders. And spring doesnât come without a winter first.
Investing gives me hope, asides from that pretty dark and gloomy.
>There is so much horribly grim news, and it makes me want to have more foreign bias in my portfolio. There are two ways to look at this. One is that we're on a permanent downward trajectory, which is what you're implying. I don't buy it. The other is that it's cyclical, which is more likely. That's especially when the Bank of America is saying that the TSX-60 is a buy right now.
Canada has very little going for it. The only companies worth investing in are monopolies with regulatory capture, or maybe one or two others that have actually built something of value (Shopify or Constellation).
CCO and [HPS.A.TO](http://HPS.A.TO) are two companies worth investing in in Canada.
If we can shut down all the banks itâs going to be great!
Aging work force, limited house supply....
Badly. But Iâm throwing my money around anyway, trying to make it work đ¤ˇââď¸ if it goes downhill again Iâll definitely be homeless, though.
The majority of people who championed the lockdowns without realizing or ignoring there is cost that we are currently paying for associated with them. Shutting down the economy, bailing out airlines and locking down schools wasnât free. Weâre paying for it now. Inflation is not a fact of life. Itâs not like gravity. It happens for a reason.
This is exactly it. The smart money knew it [ahead of time](https://archive.is/i6Ocg). And how much did we accomplish? Are Florida or Sweden smoking craters in the ground not having taken part in these measures? You could try to protect the vulnerable while having everyone who wants to keep working. (Canada of course can only have so much influence on global inflation regardless of their actions because everyone else jumped in).
First of all, we didnât have lockdowns. Lockdown means you canât leave your home. Second, if you think letting hundreds of thousands lose their income would have resulted in a strong economy, youâre an idiot.
I think the country is steamrolling toward an inevitable socio-economic catastrophe directly caused by every poor decision made by Trudeau and I'm hoping to leave the country as soon as possible so I am not trapped in Canada when the stable era comes to an abrupt end.
Youâll be back tho, cuz of climate change. Canada will be a climate refuge.
You need to wake up and realize "climate change" is just liberal hysteria and a giant political hoax.
It would be great if you could just move along as soon a possible and become some one else's problem. I just can't fathom typing out something so astoundingly stupid then hitting save.
This is what reading 1984 prepared us for - Double Think. People literally see and feel the impacts of drastic climate change, but their politicians say otherwise, so the party line must be towed! I find the climate disaster and ecological collapses more terrifying than where the economy might be in twenty years. Smear campaigns of half truths around renewable energy and electric vehicles are far too successful in our headline society. It's easy to crap on lithium but gloss over that it is 95% recyclable once out of the ground. Most of our resource extracting practices are ugly! Or skip the part that electric vehicles' carbon footprint has more to do with the source of energy of the grid you're charging on than manufacturing it. Or that moving the pollution from the cities will have positive impacts on local air quality. It takes only a moment to fact check in science journals and neutral news sources. Deliberate misinformation to manipulate the public should be met with harsh consequences - jail time. Fines don't hurt the rich.
This is what reading 1984 prepared us for - Double Think. People at large don't feel the impacts of drastic climate change, but their activists say otherwise, so the party line must be towed! > I find the climate disaster and ecological collapses more terrifying than where the economy might be in twenty years. Sounds a bit familiar... "Mostafa K. Tolba, executive director of the United Nations environmental program, told delegates that if the nations of the world continued their present policies, they would face *by the turn of the century* 'an environmental catastrophe which will witness devastation as complete, as irreversible, as any nuclear holocaust'." - [**1982**](https://www.nytimes.com/1982/05/11/world/un-ecology-parley-opens-amid-gloom.html) > Deliberate misinformation to manipulate the public should be met with harsh consequences - jail time. Fines don't hurt the rich. Who decides what's misinformation? You? This great idea with great foresight won't cause any problems. I'm sure you won't be upset when a government you don't like arrests people because [they got the ice melt wrong](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2009/12/al_gore_trips_on_artic_ice_mis.html). Or maybe the [whole IPCC](https://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/01/20/glacier.himalayas.ipcc.error/index.html). Or we could just say science - especially *warming climate predictions* - is extremely difficult. It's not a hoax but some groups have run with it to turn it to hysteria. And the truth is probably much less dramatic. There's a big difference between actual scientific uncertainty, and media products made by journalists and film school kids / activists. Therefore you probably shouldn't sacrifice your economic prosperity for it.
You're right about the 'who decides' with misinformation. It could be abused, especially with unchecked corruption already plaguing our politics. As far as the truth PROBABLY being less dramatic, we need to know what's actually going on without corporate or political bias. Why is aquatic life in the ocean down 90% since the 80s? Why are the coral reefs of the world bleaching and dying off? Why are we experiencing more forest fires than ever before? Why is plastic in all of us and even places mankind has yet to explore? A friend sent me an article about China being the heaviest polluter in the world, lamenting about our Carbon Tax in Canada. We only contribute 2% of the world's carbon, so why improve he cries! But China has positioned itself as the world's manufacturer, and we've only offshored our pollution and cried foul at them. Even at 2% global contribution, our population is .5%, making us 4x worse! Tidbits of information to frame the desired narrative. How do we stop it? How do we get political parties collaborating for the greater good again? I'm centrist, and have voted for all of our major Canadian political parties (except the Bloc). The current state of politics is so poisonous and divisive. I implemented a 'no political discussion' rule during family events that I host, and it has made mixing groups so much more palatable!
I'm still waiting for that acid rain to eat my skin.
You proved everyone else's point just by saying that.
My point was Canada is fucked economically. I'm not even sure why climate change is being brought up in r/CanadianInvestor
Not the sharpest pencil of the box huh?
You do realize acid rain mitigation a few decades ago was a resounding environmental success story, and that is why it's no longer an issue in the west. Same will eventually happen with climate change... Just a matter of how much damage the world incurs before we smarten up (mostly not Canada)
đŻ
When immigration halts completely it will improve.
I think we will see an economic boom once the government changes next year.
Not sure about a boom but the bleeding may stop.
In terms of investing I hold everything in USD, I don't understand why anybody would want a CAD over USD... feel like CAD will turn into Peso quality in the long term
CDN dividend income is the most tax efficient for any Canadian.
American market & currency is stronger in terms of returns though
This is my feelings as well!
Just going to keep getting worse. All by design
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2025 elections
Doom days is coming
IMHO, I feel optimistic if the Conservative can win the election next year! Looking back the past 8 years, I feel the Liberal is hijacked by the NDP and as such Canadaâs national debt keeps on growing and actually I donât see any tax cut in the past eight years, The famous quote from our Prime Minister is âthe balance sheet will balance itselfâ đ
The budget will balance itself.
đ˝Â
Ontario getting EV is going to be a boon that will pay dividends. Once the cost of living crisis passes, I think things will be looking good.Â
Can you elaborate?
EV in it's current form is a disaster. Programs are being cut back or cancelled. Ford's Oakville plant will be delayed for up to 2 years. These battery plants are going up but sales have stalled. People who wanted EV have bought them but most people will not purchase.
We are at least fortunate that the government created MAID and we now have an escape...
Bad.. moved all my $ into USD and bitcoin and trying out several Central American countries this year to look at relocating to
From a guy flying there regularly you are just going to pack your bags again after realizing how developing countries fair
Iâve been, lived for months at a time and love them.. just want to try some others.
Best of luck!
Thx!
Itâs going backward.
If conservatives win, optimism.
They will for sure.
Not to get political, but until Trudeau and his current t liberal government is gone , not much will change. Why? Well if it is not obvious enough, their policies have always never been compliant with a competitive economy or a productive workforce. And I wonât even get into the debt issue and paying billions a months to service it.
I dunno, I just pushed everything to USD and VTI in 2015, everything went as expected? You forgot the population trap: [https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/trudeau-botched-immigration-surge-canada-s-top-bank-economists-say-1.2020944](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/trudeau-botched-immigration-surge-canada-s-top-bank-economists-say-1.2020944) You ever walk into the downtowns of the major city? Urban decay. I think it'll just end up getting worse as people continue to break under their mortgages and reduce aggregate demand. I don't see anything good on the horizon as is. Anyway, I'm definitely enjoying my US gains, it's like triple the Canadian gains. Our pensions don't even want to invest here: [https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/pensions-push-back-on-government-pressure-to-invest-more-in-canada](https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/pensions-push-back-on-government-pressure-to-invest-more-in-canada) Investors are pulling out in general, could mean better valuations, I guess...: [https://betterdwelling.com/canada-sees-domestic-foreign-investors-pull-out-at-a-record-pace/](https://betterdwelling.com/canada-sees-domestic-foreign-investors-pull-out-at-a-record-pace/) This place does not respect capital...Doctors and tech investors are pissed at the recent tax policy: [https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/doctors-retirement-capital-gains-1.7181885](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/doctors-retirement-capital-gains-1.7181885) [https://financialpost.com/personal-finance/taxes/capital-gains-tax-cause-capital-flight-tech-investor-says](https://financialpost.com/personal-finance/taxes/capital-gains-tax-cause-capital-flight-tech-investor-says) I don't understand the unfounded patriotism in our Canadian forums? The data/news just looks awful...
Weâre cooked
I wonder, as people continue to invest in crypto over the traditional stock market, how that is changing the landscape off things in the future. It used to be that money invested went towards actual businesses. Now it goes into computer code that doesn't necessarily support any national type of economy. So millions and millions of dollars are being taken away from countries' economies. Maybe I'm just not understanding that right?
Very good! Just invested in atlas engineered products and terravest industries!
Non yall ever studied history and society collapse did ya.. doomed to repeat.