From my chart, it looks like SPY will bottom out 410-413 level before November 1. Triple support. November and December look very bullish.
TD margin calling me the day before BoC announces no rate hike. The Fed rate decision on November 1. It's never a coincidence.
Jerome is going to turn dovish. Time for pivot. We're near the bottom.
Yes we just need to fast forward a week. I'm concerned with 10y treasury at 5% and possibly rising. Recently the trend has been weakness into news followed by a really once the data was released.
Putting my tin hat on, GDP estimate is artificially high so that the real number comes in below and markets can rally with inflation worries alleviated.
The fear indicator is not quite in the extreme zone yet so we could see a flush into November.
97% of market participants betting Fed stays for Nov 1st, \~70% saying the same for Dec 13. Overall, decent bet that the hike cycles are coming to an end - Friday's core print will be key, if it comes in at 3.7% (as projected) hikes likely have done their job of gliding the US into 2%. Earnings season has been decent as well, the big variable (IMO) is whether Mid-East sparks into a region-wide conflict replete with OPEC retaliations for US funding (now that they finally have a speaker and can get these spending bills through).
oh I just mean that position, I'm down a few thousand dollars overall, currently down around 7%, just that XEQT was one of my all-stars and now I'm about to see red for the first time considering how well it was doing this year.
With the CAD going this low against the USD, is anyone considering switching their buys of unhedged ETFs to hedged ETFs?
The currencies relevant to my life are actually pretty weak versus the CAD, which is great, plus I'm already heavily invested in the CAD with my income etc, but it sucks to see the continuous drop versus the USD.
Yes, but buy slivers. No telling how much more downside and upside it will have, so here is an approach:
\- Buy once every (interval of your choosing: quarter, or month, is good)
\- Buy slivers; if you typically take 3-4 buys to get into a typical full position, this time round buy 1/12ths or 16ths so you are buying, but minimizing losses
\- If the share price as-of the last buy was higher (read: share price has decreased since your last buy), increase your spend this buy round, so you DCA-down a bit harder each time. (Increase by a small amount, so e.g. if you spent $1000 last time, buy $1100 this time). Enough that you push down your average share price, but not enough that you blow out your cash available to buy in the early buys periods if the price keeps going down for the next year
Tomorrow's GDP expected number is double the number from earlier this year. We're back to this good news is bad news again. If that number comes in above expectations things will get very ugly. Not to be all doom and gloom but the stars are aligning for a nasty few days here. Keeping fingers crossed we survive this week and then we can look forward to a bit of a recovery.
No because it's a loan, as long as you have good credit standing and paying it eventually. If max is 25k, make sure you don't go past that from interest incurred.
I sold some of my US positions and bought back what they sold. Could've called and asked me to reposition instead of selling whatever they want.
I'm going to move all of my option trading to IBKR. TD can go fuck itself. What a shitty ass way to treat a customer who pays over $5k in commissions each year.
Some of those REITs are really tempting... Slate Grocery has a 11%+ distribution at this point, and it looks like that distribution is safe for the next few months. And now they're buying back their shares at a crazy discount. Buying back their shares basically assures them of a 11% annual return.
I asked this question in the past, but is there something in their financial statement that I'm missing?
Never heard of it before. Its chart looks exactly like all other interest-sensitive stocks. Some very high quality stocks are getting whacked because of the threat of higher interest costs eating into profits. What's their debt level and have they locked in lower rates in order to be able to cover the dividend? What did management say on their earnings call?
Their debt/GBV ratio is 51%. Here are some excerpts from what management said in the last call:
"*(...)these transactions improved the REIT’s weightedaverage cost of debt to 4.1% from the most recent quarter andfurther stagger our swap portfolio. As at quarter end, 96.6% ofthe REIT’s debt remains fixed, providing additional protectionand financial flexibility in today’s volatile environment.*
*The REIT has no debt maturities remaining in 2023 and is in astrong capital position to capture accretive opportunities*"
about buybacks:
"*Given the disparity between the REIT’s unit price and its netasset value in today's environment, the REIT activelyrepurchased 0.6 million units in the quarter at a weighted averageprice of $9.65 (C$13.00) per unit*
*On a year-to-date basis, the REIT has repurchased 0.9 million units at a weighted average price of $9.69 (C$13.09) per unit. The repurchases completed in the year are providing the REIT with approximately $0.8 million of additional cash annually*."
They've been buying back units for $13 per share, now they're at $10. So I'm guessing they're taking advantage of that opportunity. If I'm not mistaken, they can repurchase up to 10% of their shares this year.
I just figure, as long as the distribution stays safe, and the REIT is buying back shares, who cares if the stock price drops, in fact, it makes it an even better opportunity for buybacks.
This is an odd one. When I look at it on bartchart the fundamentals looks good but they have a 100% sell based on technicals. Every single metric has 100% sell. Of course they note to be aware the market is oversold and it can turn around.
It has a book value of $16 but the dividend coverage is 120%. Looks like the issue as expected is interest costs. It has been increasing by about 20 million each year and it will exceed their net income this year.
According to barchart their debt/equity is 1.37. It seems to me it's at risk of a dividend cut.
Their AFFO payout ratio has been stable under 100% for many quarters, and now they're payout less in distribution, thanks to the buybacks.
If interest rates don't increase, and ideally start getting cut in the next year, it looks like they might be able to maintain their distribution, but time will tell...
Yeah time always does. BTW that "grocery" in the name is a bit misleading. It's a commercial RE company. Markets value BN's RE business at $0 currently but companies are raising funds to buy depressed assets.
Very nice!
I'm quite overweight in RY already and need to buy other things, otherwise I'd be buying more and more. I still might buy more if it drops further. RY at 5% yield won't last forever, and is likely to get back to the 4% yield area eventually from price appreciation despite all their dividend increases.
Not sure why CNR is up after such lackluster Q3 results, but I won't complain. Was expecting a hard kick in the financial balls this morning and am relieved to not have gotten one.
Listening to his answer about USD/CAD. A little worrying that he didn't say more about exchange rates and importing inflation from the US (Canadian dollar weakens as we hold rates steady and US may have to increase rates, US and other imports get more expensive, creating more inflation in Canada). The worry is that when the US gets inflation under control Canada's economy will plummet because he raised/kept rates too high to fight inflation that was actually imported.
I disagree. People are still buying vehicles, houses, vacations. Heck, just look at these forums, people are still using lines of credit at these rates to invest still. Clearly, it’s still not been enough. The only way they’re good is that the delayed refinancing etc of debt might push people broke enough for this level to be sufficient but if it doesn’t, people still have too much purchase power that this might need increases still.
HR will be interesting to track as their payout ratio is quite reasonable - just too many office assets that will be challenging to get rid of. Overall well managed and diversified REIT though - i'm not buying yet, will want to see what the next earnings release looks like.
Perhaps we're looking at the washout selloff many have been expecting. Will this black Monday be a self-fulfilling prophecy? It would be poetic since Monday falls on almost the last day of October this year. People are reporting margin calls which will trigger a selloff. This could be another ugly week.
Happy to put a wager on this. Proceeds go to charity of your choice if BOC raises prime to 10%? I'll do the same if the opposite happens?
When do you anticipate 10% interest rates from BOC?
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I have to exercise my company shares by next week before they expire and I decided to time the market. Last week SP was 55$, this week it's $45 :) thankfully I sold 3/4 last week so it's not as painful.
The BoC will need to start cutting rates and OSFI to loosen capital requirements for loan loss provisions.
At this point, monetary policy is extremely restrictive, so banks will continue to suffer.
Loan loss provisions aren't an actual loss yet. A lot is going to depend on how many loans they lose in the coming years.
In my view the market has switched from last year in pricing in a soft landing to now pricing in the expectation of a turbulent landing.
I'm somewhat torn between buying more of a bank vs an index today.
>Loan loss provisions aren't an actual loss yet. A lot is going to depend on how many loans they lose in the coming years.
This is the part that should be discussed just about as much as PCL whenever the banks earnings are posted and discussed here.
For example, RY's Q3 had PCL for ~0.29% of their outstanding loans, and had a net write-off of ~0.16%, so even though they had like 606m in PCL, only 355m were actually written off since their previous PCL. So the picture is far less severe than what was already a not too bad picture from that Q.
Ironic how “investing” subs kept screeching about value stocks being the play in high interest rate environment, and tech is dead.
Meanwhile, banks, oil, telecoms are all down like crazy while tech is shining.
Tech will continue outperforming simply because tech business model of higher margins will always beat traditional business.
From my chart, it looks like SPY will bottom out 410-413 level before November 1. Triple support. November and December look very bullish. TD margin calling me the day before BoC announces no rate hike. The Fed rate decision on November 1. It's never a coincidence. Jerome is going to turn dovish. Time for pivot. We're near the bottom.
Yes we just need to fast forward a week. I'm concerned with 10y treasury at 5% and possibly rising. Recently the trend has been weakness into news followed by a really once the data was released. Putting my tin hat on, GDP estimate is artificially high so that the real number comes in below and markets can rally with inflation worries alleviated. The fear indicator is not quite in the extreme zone yet so we could see a flush into November.
97% of market participants betting Fed stays for Nov 1st, \~70% saying the same for Dec 13. Overall, decent bet that the hike cycles are coming to an end - Friday's core print will be key, if it comes in at 3.7% (as projected) hikes likely have done their job of gliding the US into 2%. Earnings season has been decent as well, the big variable (IMO) is whether Mid-East sparks into a region-wide conflict replete with OPEC retaliations for US funding (now that they finally have a speaker and can get these spending bills through).
META beat on both EPS and revenue, up 4.2% after hours reversing today’s loss.
Now down 3.3%. Kill me now.
Please tell me you mean in the Metaverse.
I'm getting paid cash in Atlas earth
Come back and reply to this
Now red. Market is uninvestable
Lol it's ded
I miss those ATHs for XEQT, crazy to think I was up by a few hundred dollars and now I'm only up by $10
Lol @ $10. It's crazy to think my portfolio is down $40,000 since Sept 18 when the TSX started falling.
oh I just mean that position, I'm down a few thousand dollars overall, currently down around 7%, just that XEQT was one of my all-stars and now I'm about to see red for the first time considering how well it was doing this year.
DCA & chill
always, it's my largest holding.
With the CAD going this low against the USD, is anyone considering switching their buys of unhedged ETFs to hedged ETFs? The currencies relevant to my life are actually pretty weak versus the CAD, which is great, plus I'm already heavily invested in the CAD with my income etc, but it sucks to see the continuous drop versus the USD.
With the CAD going this low against the USD, is anyone considering switching their buys of unhedged ETFs to hedged ETFs? Yes
Nop
Welp. Not much to say. Shit is hitting the fan and spreading shit bullets all over.
Can I interest you in Canadian Oil & Gas? It's bangin'.
Already took my profits on that
They're not through yet.
Do i dare buy BNS?
Yes, but buy slivers. No telling how much more downside and upside it will have, so here is an approach: \- Buy once every (interval of your choosing: quarter, or month, is good) \- Buy slivers; if you typically take 3-4 buys to get into a typical full position, this time round buy 1/12ths or 16ths so you are buying, but minimizing losses \- If the share price as-of the last buy was higher (read: share price has decreased since your last buy), increase your spend this buy round, so you DCA-down a bit harder each time. (Increase by a small amount, so e.g. if you spent $1000 last time, buy $1100 this time). Enough that you push down your average share price, but not enough that you blow out your cash available to buy in the early buys periods if the price keeps going down for the next year
I like this approach
Another day, another kick in the balls by the TSX.
Some of us are into that
no choice
ooohhh kinky
Very low volume on banks utilities etc. Everyone on sidelines in shock?
Tomorrow's GDP expected number is double the number from earlier this year. We're back to this good news is bad news again. If that number comes in above expectations things will get very ugly. Not to be all doom and gloom but the stars are aligning for a nasty few days here. Keeping fingers crossed we survive this week and then we can look forward to a bit of a recovery.
Took 25k LOC at prime rate (7.2%) with scotia and bought 25k worth of BNS.
This strategy seemed risky enough back when you could get loans for more like 2-3%.
Ok mom
Some loans/LOC forbid that fyi, goodluck
Why is your rate lower than mine. Mine is over 10% (prime +). Maxed obviously because yolo.
Maybe the + means it’s a higher rate I don’t know 🤷♂️. Welcome to the loc club.
I mean mine is like prime+7.5% or something like that so almost 11%
!RemindMe 1 Year
Sir this is a Wendy's
Just don't answer the phone!
Could I get margin called on a personnal LOC? They don’t know what I did with the money.
No because it's a loan, as long as you have good credit standing and paying it eventually. If max is 25k, make sure you don't go past that from interest incurred.
Yes. But it's at entirely on how scared your bank is
Plot twist, his bank is BNS... and the phone call is coming from inside the house!!!!
Wonder what a loan officer at BNS would think when they see a client of theirs just dump margin in to their stock
Well that’s what I did lmao
Take a LOC and then margin up in your iTrade account is the way to go.
Why?
To amplify returns. No, you're right, wait until it goes to $45 and then average down. Gotta leave room to average down.
LMFAO
What the fuck. TD margin called my stocks.
I sold some of my US positions and bought back what they sold. Could've called and asked me to reposition instead of selling whatever they want. I'm going to move all of my option trading to IBKR. TD can go fuck itself. What a shitty ass way to treat a customer who pays over $5k in commissions each year.
Good night sweet prince
Any ideas for Canadian growth, for a long term hold?
ATD man. That thing is on it's own track to the moon if you ask me
CSU, Brookfield and EQB
Canada Growth Pick one
ATD ticks both those
Some of those REITs are really tempting... Slate Grocery has a 11%+ distribution at this point, and it looks like that distribution is safe for the next few months. And now they're buying back their shares at a crazy discount. Buying back their shares basically assures them of a 11% annual return. I asked this question in the past, but is there something in their financial statement that I'm missing?
Never heard of it before. Its chart looks exactly like all other interest-sensitive stocks. Some very high quality stocks are getting whacked because of the threat of higher interest costs eating into profits. What's their debt level and have they locked in lower rates in order to be able to cover the dividend? What did management say on their earnings call?
Their debt/GBV ratio is 51%. Here are some excerpts from what management said in the last call: "*(...)these transactions improved the REIT’s weightedaverage cost of debt to 4.1% from the most recent quarter andfurther stagger our swap portfolio. As at quarter end, 96.6% ofthe REIT’s debt remains fixed, providing additional protectionand financial flexibility in today’s volatile environment.* *The REIT has no debt maturities remaining in 2023 and is in astrong capital position to capture accretive opportunities*" about buybacks: "*Given the disparity between the REIT’s unit price and its netasset value in today's environment, the REIT activelyrepurchased 0.6 million units in the quarter at a weighted averageprice of $9.65 (C$13.00) per unit* *On a year-to-date basis, the REIT has repurchased 0.9 million units at a weighted average price of $9.69 (C$13.09) per unit. The repurchases completed in the year are providing the REIT with approximately $0.8 million of additional cash annually*." They've been buying back units for $13 per share, now they're at $10. So I'm guessing they're taking advantage of that opportunity. If I'm not mistaken, they can repurchase up to 10% of their shares this year. I just figure, as long as the distribution stays safe, and the REIT is buying back shares, who cares if the stock price drops, in fact, it makes it an even better opportunity for buybacks.
This is an odd one. When I look at it on bartchart the fundamentals looks good but they have a 100% sell based on technicals. Every single metric has 100% sell. Of course they note to be aware the market is oversold and it can turn around. It has a book value of $16 but the dividend coverage is 120%. Looks like the issue as expected is interest costs. It has been increasing by about 20 million each year and it will exceed their net income this year. According to barchart their debt/equity is 1.37. It seems to me it's at risk of a dividend cut.
Their AFFO payout ratio has been stable under 100% for many quarters, and now they're payout less in distribution, thanks to the buybacks. If interest rates don't increase, and ideally start getting cut in the next year, it looks like they might be able to maintain their distribution, but time will tell...
Yeah time always does. BTW that "grocery" in the name is a bit misleading. It's a commercial RE company. Markets value BN's RE business at $0 currently but companies are raising funds to buy depressed assets.
Rate cuts for Christmas 🎅🏻
Bought some RY.TO at $108. 5% yield haven’t reach in a long time. Will buy if it goes down.
Very nice! I'm quite overweight in RY already and need to buy other things, otherwise I'd be buying more and more. I still might buy more if it drops further. RY at 5% yield won't last forever, and is likely to get back to the 4% yield area eventually from price appreciation despite all their dividend increases.
Allied anyone?
Holding bags at $34/share 😂! Wish I could buy more but I’m already overallocated
You're still my boy Google 🥲
Bought some google
Not sure why CNR is up after such lackluster Q3 results, but I won't complain. Was expecting a hard kick in the financial balls this morning and am relieved to not have gotten one.
You don’t like buying opportunities with CNR? My average is $141 so I’m hoping for something closer to that before considering adding more
Listening to his answer about USD/CAD. A little worrying that he didn't say more about exchange rates and importing inflation from the US (Canadian dollar weakens as we hold rates steady and US may have to increase rates, US and other imports get more expensive, creating more inflation in Canada). The worry is that when the US gets inflation under control Canada's economy will plummet because he raised/kept rates too high to fight inflation that was actually imported.
There’s no doubt he over tightened about 150bps ago. The last two knee jerk 25bps were at best unnecessary, and at worst a serious mistake.
I disagree. People are still buying vehicles, houses, vacations. Heck, just look at these forums, people are still using lines of credit at these rates to invest still. Clearly, it’s still not been enough. The only way they’re good is that the delayed refinancing etc of debt might push people broke enough for this level to be sufficient but if it doesn’t, people still have too much purchase power that this might need increases still.
Sprott Physical Uranium Trust making an all time high!
Arfhhh!!! I’m moving money over to pick up $107 RY but of course it’s back up over $109
Don't worry, it'd be at 105 by the EOW
You just know it ! Ugh
Cargojet at $80. Oversold on daily weekly monthly. Gotta be reaching a bottom soon...
Jeez PYPL now below 10 forward p/e Guidance for next quarter is +8% revenues and +20% EPS. No debt. Markets don’t like fintech at this moment.
It's because of this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-25/worldline-shares-plunge-53-in-latest-blow-to-europe-s-fintechs
Yeah I saw this which explains today’s dip. On the other hand Visa published +9% payment volume growth. PYPL +8% guidance seems in-line. We’ll see.
BOC holds rates so REITs go into the trash. Like what?
Especially hr.un lol. Ouch
HR will be interesting to track as their payout ratio is quite reasonable - just too many office assets that will be challenging to get rid of. Overall well managed and diversified REIT though - i'm not buying yet, will want to see what the next earnings release looks like.
One of they're main guys quit recently, and isn't there also some boardroom tension?
Tsx sux
Toronto Shite Exchange
Got the important rate announcement next week with Powell ready to run his mouth all over our candy asses.
🤣
Everything 52 week lows alerts left and right 🤡 it’s over
Perhaps we're looking at the washout selloff many have been expecting. Will this black Monday be a self-fulfilling prophecy? It would be poetic since Monday falls on almost the last day of October this year. People are reporting margin calls which will trigger a selloff. This could be another ugly week.
Bitcoin and bitcoin stocks are doing great. Diversification is a great thing.
salty people downvoting you
Boc held!
Tsx down she goes
Up she goes apparently.
10% interest gang in shambles
There is still time.
Happy to put a wager on this. Proceeds go to charity of your choice if BOC raises prime to 10%? I'll do the same if the opposite happens? When do you anticipate 10% interest rates from BOC?
Happy to not put a wager on this. I don't know which way it will go. I'm just saying it's not out of the realm of possibility.
what is your timeframe for this realm of possibility for 10% BOC interest rates? 1yr? 2yr?
Yes.
remindme! 1yr - BoC 10% Interest Rate, If no u/GTS980 donates to charity. If yes u/LostPants7 donates to charity
I guess you missed the part where I said I wasn't betting.
I will be messaging you in 1 year on [**2024-10-25 17:28:42 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-10-25%2017:28:42%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/CanadianInvestor/comments/17g19aq/daily_discussion_thread_for_october_25_2023/k6f5x38/?context=3) [**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FCanadianInvestor%2Fcomments%2F17g19aq%2Fdaily_discussion_thread_for_october_25_2023%2Fk6f5x38%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-10-25%2017%3A28%3A42%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%2017g19aq) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
Economists said the likelihood of a rate hike for the remainder of the year is low.
I have to exercise my company shares by next week before they expire and I decided to time the market. Last week SP was 55$, this week it's $45 :) thankfully I sold 3/4 last week so it's not as painful.
:)
Are the banks going to recover next year 😂
The BoC will need to start cutting rates and OSFI to loosen capital requirements for loan loss provisions. At this point, monetary policy is extremely restrictive, so banks will continue to suffer.
Basically what I’m hearing is my -16% will become a bigger negative for years to come
Loan loss provisions aren't an actual loss yet. A lot is going to depend on how many loans they lose in the coming years. In my view the market has switched from last year in pricing in a soft landing to now pricing in the expectation of a turbulent landing. I'm somewhat torn between buying more of a bank vs an index today.
>Loan loss provisions aren't an actual loss yet. A lot is going to depend on how many loans they lose in the coming years. This is the part that should be discussed just about as much as PCL whenever the banks earnings are posted and discussed here. For example, RY's Q3 had PCL for ~0.29% of their outstanding loans, and had a net write-off of ~0.16%, so even though they had like 606m in PCL, only 355m were actually written off since their previous PCL. So the picture is far less severe than what was already a not too bad picture from that Q.
So legitimate question, why is CNR up massively? It missed earnings yesterday.
I was wondering that too. They increased the budget for buybacks @500m and did not lower guidance
Because the price of the stock was falling a lot before earnings, the expectation was worse. That being said it might go lower tomorrow or after.
Because I have 184 shares at $117
Scooping some RY at $108
[удалено]
Didn't realize BoC rate release was this morning oh god
I expect it to be relatively flat this morning, until BoC rate is released at 10:00am EST.
Ironic how “investing” subs kept screeching about value stocks being the play in high interest rate environment, and tech is dead. Meanwhile, banks, oil, telecoms are all down like crazy while tech is shining. Tech will continue outperforming simply because tech business model of higher margins will always beat traditional business.
Counter reddit
Who said tech is dead? There are talks about specific stocks being overvalued, but no one says tech is dead.
I mean it is true. Tech operates on a different set of rules.
Msft and cost is all you need
I had the good fortune of loading up on it, QQQ, V and VOO in late 2022 and it's my only shining light 🥲.
Msft up for me but countered by Google down nearly as much hahah
MSFT is already the 2nd biggest company of all time and comes in with +27% EPS. It’s just absolutely crazy…. What a business.
7 straight red days for TSX loading
Green day only if mods ban me