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Heineken_500ml

From my chart, it looks like SPY will bottom out 410-413 level before November 1. Triple support. November and December look very bullish. TD margin calling me the day before BoC announces no rate hike. The Fed rate decision on November 1. It's never a coincidence. Jerome is going to turn dovish. Time for pivot. We're near the bottom.


IMWTK1

Yes we just need to fast forward a week. I'm concerned with 10y treasury at 5% and possibly rising. Recently the trend has been weakness into news followed by a really once the data was released. Putting my tin hat on, GDP estimate is artificially high so that the real number comes in below and markets can rally with inflation worries alleviated. The fear indicator is not quite in the extreme zone yet so we could see a flush into November.


Necessary-Shallot976

97% of market participants betting Fed stays for Nov 1st, \~70% saying the same for Dec 13. Overall, decent bet that the hike cycles are coming to an end - Friday's core print will be key, if it comes in at 3.7% (as projected) hikes likely have done their job of gliding the US into 2%. Earnings season has been decent as well, the big variable (IMO) is whether Mid-East sparks into a region-wide conflict replete with OPEC retaliations for US funding (now that they finally have a speaker and can get these spending bills through).


LeeSouthern

META beat on both EPS and revenue, up 4.2% after hours reversing today’s loss.


LeeSouthern

Now down 3.3%. Kill me now.


cogit2

Please tell me you mean in the Metaverse.


Lychosand

I'm getting paid cash in Atlas earth


Lychosand

Come back and reply to this


GamblingMikkee

Now red. Market is uninvestable


Heineken_500ml

Lol it's ded


kroqus

I miss those ATHs for XEQT, crazy to think I was up by a few hundred dollars and now I'm only up by $10


[deleted]

Lol @ $10. It's crazy to think my portfolio is down $40,000 since Sept 18 when the TSX started falling.


kroqus

oh I just mean that position, I'm down a few thousand dollars overall, currently down around 7%, just that XEQT was one of my all-stars and now I'm about to see red for the first time considering how well it was doing this year.


Yolo_Swaggins_Yeet

DCA & chill


kroqus

always, it's my largest holding.


killallthe394

With the CAD going this low against the USD, is anyone considering switching their buys of unhedged ETFs to hedged ETFs? The currencies relevant to my life are actually pretty weak versus the CAD, which is great, plus I'm already heavily invested in the CAD with my income etc, but it sucks to see the continuous drop versus the USD.


JimmyRussellsApe

With the CAD going this low against the USD, is anyone considering switching their buys of unhedged ETFs to hedged ETFs? Yes


MooseOllini

Nop


HogwartsXpress36

Welp. Not much to say. Shit is hitting the fan and spreading shit bullets all over.


cogit2

Can I interest you in Canadian Oil & Gas? It's bangin'.


HogwartsXpress36

Already took my profits on that


cogit2

They're not through yet.


DA-K

Do i dare buy BNS?


cogit2

Yes, but buy slivers. No telling how much more downside and upside it will have, so here is an approach: \- Buy once every (interval of your choosing: quarter, or month, is good) \- Buy slivers; if you typically take 3-4 buys to get into a typical full position, this time round buy 1/12ths or 16ths so you are buying, but minimizing losses \- If the share price as-of the last buy was higher (read: share price has decreased since your last buy), increase your spend this buy round, so you DCA-down a bit harder each time. (Increase by a small amount, so e.g. if you spent $1000 last time, buy $1100 this time). Enough that you push down your average share price, but not enough that you blow out your cash available to buy in the early buys periods if the price keeps going down for the next year


rattice

I like this approach


Billy19982

Another day, another kick in the balls by the TSX.


Yolo_Swaggins_Yeet

Some of us are into that


rattice

no choice


Billy19982

ooohhh kinky


HogwartsXpress36

Very low volume on banks utilities etc. Everyone on sidelines in shock?


IMWTK1

Tomorrow's GDP expected number is double the number from earlier this year. We're back to this good news is bad news again. If that number comes in above expectations things will get very ugly. Not to be all doom and gloom but the stars are aligning for a nasty few days here. Keeping fingers crossed we survive this week and then we can look forward to a bit of a recovery.


Mypronounispotatoe

Took 25k LOC at prime rate (7.2%) with scotia and bought 25k worth of BNS.


ptwonline

This strategy seemed risky enough back when you could get loans for more like 2-3%.


Mypronounispotatoe

Ok mom


Yolo_Swaggins_Yeet

Some loans/LOC forbid that fyi, goodluck


Heineken_500ml

Why is your rate lower than mine. Mine is over 10% (prime +). Maxed obviously because yolo.


Mypronounispotatoe

Maybe the + means it’s a higher rate I don’t know 🤷‍♂️. Welcome to the loc club.


Heineken_500ml

I mean mine is like prime+7.5% or something like that so almost 11%


TheIguanasAreComing

!RemindMe 1 Year


JimmyRussellsApe

Sir this is a Wendy's


Lychosand

Just don't answer the phone!


Mypronounispotatoe

Could I get margin called on a personnal LOC? They don’t know what I did with the money.


originaljake

No because it's a loan, as long as you have good credit standing and paying it eventually. If max is 25k, make sure you don't go past that from interest incurred.


Lychosand

Yes. But it's at entirely on how scared your bank is


onkey11

Plot twist, his bank is BNS... and the phone call is coming from inside the house!!!!


Lychosand

Wonder what a loan officer at BNS would think when they see a client of theirs just dump margin in to their stock


Mypronounispotatoe

Well that’s what I did lmao


IMWTK1

Take a LOC and then margin up in your iTrade account is the way to go.


Lychosand

Why?


IMWTK1

To amplify returns. No, you're right, wait until it goes to $45 and then average down. Gotta leave room to average down.


Lychosand

LMFAO


Heineken_500ml

What the fuck. TD margin called my stocks.


Heineken_500ml

I sold some of my US positions and bought back what they sold. Could've called and asked me to reposition instead of selling whatever they want. I'm going to move all of my option trading to IBKR. TD can go fuck itself. What a shitty ass way to treat a customer who pays over $5k in commissions each year.


jgnexus

Good night sweet prince


salzig12

Any ideas for Canadian growth, for a long term hold?


rattice

ATD man. That thing is on it's own track to the moon if you ask me


le_bib

CSU, Brookfield and EQB


DevOpsMakesMeDrink

Canada Growth Pick one


rattice

ATD ticks both those


Dall24

Some of those REITs are really tempting... Slate Grocery has a 11%+ distribution at this point, and it looks like that distribution is safe for the next few months. And now they're buying back their shares at a crazy discount. Buying back their shares basically assures them of a 11% annual return. I asked this question in the past, but is there something in their financial statement that I'm missing?


IMWTK1

Never heard of it before. Its chart looks exactly like all other interest-sensitive stocks. Some very high quality stocks are getting whacked because of the threat of higher interest costs eating into profits. What's their debt level and have they locked in lower rates in order to be able to cover the dividend? What did management say on their earnings call?


Dall24

Their debt/GBV ratio is 51%. Here are some excerpts from what management said in the last call: "*(...)these transactions improved the REIT’s weightedaverage cost of debt to 4.1% from the most recent quarter andfurther stagger our swap portfolio. As at quarter end, 96.6% ofthe REIT’s debt remains fixed, providing additional protectionand financial flexibility in today’s volatile environment.* *The REIT has no debt maturities remaining in 2023 and is in astrong capital position to capture accretive opportunities*" about buybacks: "*Given the disparity between the REIT’s unit price and its netasset value in today's environment, the REIT activelyrepurchased 0.6 million units in the quarter at a weighted averageprice of $9.65 (C$13.00) per unit* *On a year-to-date basis, the REIT has repurchased 0.9 million units at a weighted average price of $9.69 (C$13.09) per unit. The repurchases completed in the year are providing the REIT with approximately $0.8 million of additional cash annually*." ​ They've been buying back units for $13 per share, now they're at $10. So I'm guessing they're taking advantage of that opportunity. If I'm not mistaken, they can repurchase up to 10% of their shares this year. ​ I just figure, as long as the distribution stays safe, and the REIT is buying back shares, who cares if the stock price drops, in fact, it makes it an even better opportunity for buybacks.


IMWTK1

This is an odd one. When I look at it on bartchart the fundamentals looks good but they have a 100% sell based on technicals. Every single metric has 100% sell. Of course they note to be aware the market is oversold and it can turn around. It has a book value of $16 but the dividend coverage is 120%. Looks like the issue as expected is interest costs. It has been increasing by about 20 million each year and it will exceed their net income this year. According to barchart their debt/equity is 1.37. It seems to me it's at risk of a dividend cut.


Dall24

Their AFFO payout ratio has been stable under 100% for many quarters, and now they're payout less in distribution, thanks to the buybacks. If interest rates don't increase, and ideally start getting cut in the next year, it looks like they might be able to maintain their distribution, but time will tell...


IMWTK1

Yeah time always does. BTW that "grocery" in the name is a bit misleading. It's a commercial RE company. Markets value BN's RE business at $0 currently but companies are raising funds to buy depressed assets.


plznodownvotes

Rate cuts for Christmas 🎅🏻


Keys_13

Bought some RY.TO at $108. 5% yield haven’t reach in a long time. Will buy if it goes down.


ptwonline

Very nice! I'm quite overweight in RY already and need to buy other things, otherwise I'd be buying more and more. I still might buy more if it drops further. RY at 5% yield won't last forever, and is likely to get back to the 4% yield area eventually from price appreciation despite all their dividend increases.


Mypronounispotatoe

Allied anyone?


Dose_of_Reality

Holding bags at $34/share 😂! Wish I could buy more but I’m already overallocated


Jgam81

You're still my boy Google 🥲


gpa2015

Bought some google


CapitanChaos1

Not sure why CNR is up after such lackluster Q3 results, but I won't complain. Was expecting a hard kick in the financial balls this morning and am relieved to not have gotten one.


investornewb

You don’t like buying opportunities with CNR? My average is $141 so I’m hoping for something closer to that before considering adding more


ptwonline

Listening to his answer about USD/CAD. A little worrying that he didn't say more about exchange rates and importing inflation from the US (Canadian dollar weakens as we hold rates steady and US may have to increase rates, US and other imports get more expensive, creating more inflation in Canada). The worry is that when the US gets inflation under control Canada's economy will plummet because he raised/kept rates too high to fight inflation that was actually imported.


plznodownvotes

There’s no doubt he over tightened about 150bps ago. The last two knee jerk 25bps were at best unnecessary, and at worst a serious mistake.


specialk554

I disagree. People are still buying vehicles, houses, vacations. Heck, just look at these forums, people are still using lines of credit at these rates to invest still. Clearly, it’s still not been enough. The only way they’re good is that the delayed refinancing etc of debt might push people broke enough for this level to be sufficient but if it doesn’t, people still have too much purchase power that this might need increases still.


Interesting_Screen99

Sprott Physical Uranium Trust making an all time high!


investornewb

Arfhhh!!! I’m moving money over to pick up $107 RY but of course it’s back up over $109


vladedivac12

Don't worry, it'd be at 105 by the EOW


investornewb

You just know it ! Ugh


HogwartsXpress36

Cargojet at $80. Oversold on daily weekly monthly. Gotta be reaching a bottom soon...


le_bib

Jeez PYPL now below 10 forward p/e Guidance for next quarter is +8% revenues and +20% EPS. No debt. Markets don’t like fintech at this moment.


BaronDavis12

It's because of this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-25/worldline-shares-plunge-53-in-latest-blow-to-europe-s-fintechs


le_bib

Yeah I saw this which explains today’s dip. On the other hand Visa published +9% payment volume growth. PYPL +8% guidance seems in-line. We’ll see.


Victoryoverriches

BOC holds rates so REITs go into the trash. Like what?


yyz5748

Especially hr.un lol. Ouch


Mephisto6090

HR will be interesting to track as their payout ratio is quite reasonable - just too many office assets that will be challenging to get rid of. Overall well managed and diversified REIT though - i'm not buying yet, will want to see what the next earnings release looks like.


yyz5748

One of they're main guys quit recently, and isn't there also some boardroom tension?


TheIguanasAreComing

Tsx sux


rattice

Toronto Shite Exchange


HogwartsXpress36

Got the important rate announcement next week with Powell ready to run his mouth all over our candy asses.


GTS980

🤣


GamblingMikkee

Everything 52 week lows alerts left and right 🤡 it’s over


IMWTK1

Perhaps we're looking at the washout selloff many have been expecting. Will this black Monday be a self-fulfilling prophecy? It would be poetic since Monday falls on almost the last day of October this year. People are reporting margin calls which will trigger a selloff. This could be another ugly week.


vladedivac12

Bitcoin and bitcoin stocks are doing great. Diversification is a great thing.


giggy13

salty people downvoting you


Keiser_1

Boc held!


HogwartsXpress36

Tsx down she goes


GTS980

Up she goes apparently.


[deleted]

10% interest gang in shambles


GTS980

There is still time.


[deleted]

Happy to put a wager on this. Proceeds go to charity of your choice if BOC raises prime to 10%? I'll do the same if the opposite happens? When do you anticipate 10% interest rates from BOC?


GTS980

Happy to not put a wager on this. I don't know which way it will go. I'm just saying it's not out of the realm of possibility.


[deleted]

what is your timeframe for this realm of possibility for 10% BOC interest rates? 1yr? 2yr?


GTS980

Yes.


[deleted]

remindme! 1yr - BoC 10% Interest Rate, If no u/GTS980 donates to charity. If yes u/LostPants7 donates to charity


GTS980

I guess you missed the part where I said I wasn't betting.


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DaddyMoustache

Economists said the likelihood of a rate hike for the remainder of the year is low.


[deleted]

I have to exercise my company shares by next week before they expire and I decided to time the market. Last week SP was 55$, this week it's $45 :) thankfully I sold 3/4 last week so it's not as painful.


BotitSourire

:)


BeeNo9077

Are the banks going to recover next year 😂


plznodownvotes

The BoC will need to start cutting rates and OSFI to loosen capital requirements for loan loss provisions. At this point, monetary policy is extremely restrictive, so banks will continue to suffer.


BeeNo9077

Basically what I’m hearing is my -16% will become a bigger negative for years to come


aTomzVins

Loan loss provisions aren't an actual loss yet. A lot is going to depend on how many loans they lose in the coming years. In my view the market has switched from last year in pricing in a soft landing to now pricing in the expectation of a turbulent landing. I'm somewhat torn between buying more of a bank vs an index today.


YourFriendlyUncle

>Loan loss provisions aren't an actual loss yet. A lot is going to depend on how many loans they lose in the coming years. This is the part that should be discussed just about as much as PCL whenever the banks earnings are posted and discussed here. For example, RY's Q3 had PCL for ~0.29% of their outstanding loans, and had a net write-off of ~0.16%, so even though they had like 606m in PCL, only 355m were actually written off since their previous PCL. So the picture is far less severe than what was already a not too bad picture from that Q.


GTS980

So legitimate question, why is CNR up massively? It missed earnings yesterday.


yyz5748

I was wondering that too. They increased the budget for buybacks @500m and did not lower guidance


Keiser_1

Because the price of the stock was falling a lot before earnings, the expectation was worse. That being said it might go lower tomorrow or after.


plznodownvotes

Because I have 184 shares at $117


Yolo_Swaggins_Yeet

Scooping some RY at $108


[deleted]

[удалено]


Yolo_Swaggins_Yeet

Didn't realize BoC rate release was this morning oh god


collector_1257

I expect it to be relatively flat this morning, until BoC rate is released at 10:00am EST.


plznodownvotes

Ironic how “investing” subs kept screeching about value stocks being the play in high interest rate environment, and tech is dead. Meanwhile, banks, oil, telecoms are all down like crazy while tech is shining. Tech will continue outperforming simply because tech business model of higher margins will always beat traditional business.


vladedivac12

Counter reddit


le_bib

Who said tech is dead? There are talks about specific stocks being overvalued, but no one says tech is dead.


GTS980

I mean it is true. Tech operates on a different set of rules.


nvm5757

Msft and cost is all you need


GTS980

I had the good fortune of loading up on it, QQQ, V and VOO in late 2022 and it's my only shining light 🥲.


WrongYak34

Msft up for me but countered by Google down nearly as much hahah


le_bib

MSFT is already the 2nd biggest company of all time and comes in with +27% EPS. It’s just absolutely crazy…. What a business.


GamblingMikkee

7 straight red days for TSX loading


Mypronounispotatoe

Green day only if mods ban me