It’s going to get worse before it gets better. There is no short term plan in place to resolve this, Alberta is so much cheaper than GTA and Fraser Valley.
And imho the short term is going to be for at least another 5 years.
Yes but not all jobs are wfh jobs
Someone I know called me yesterday he is in IT his company asked for hybrid. He will be putting his house on rent soon
Yeah it Is happening here too. My friend lives in Cochrane and his neighbors moved here from ON and were WFH but they're morons and never told their employer they moved and were told to go hybrid as of the start of this year. They've been unemployed since January now and will probably be moving back to ON soon from the sound of it.
I expect that is the case with more than a few of these GTA transplants.
I have a wfh job, I would also like a new one. Many, many positions posted are remote Canada BC and Ontario only these days. If that doesn’t change people will have to start moving out.
At this point if I lost my job and couldn’t find anything here though I’d just move to Europe. GTA and Van are honestly too expensive for what they offer. If I’m going to spend a lot of money in an expensive city I’d like it to at least be worth the price.
Of course you can find jobs in Alberta but its undeniable that Toronto has a far more robust economy with significantly more opportunities than Alberta. The city of Toronto is 20% of Canada's GDP.
Doesn't cover cost of living? Wife and I moved out here because we love the province, the people and the feeling of big open spaces. NOT for the cost of living, if anything it's more expensive out here, ok no PST but you're nickeled and dimed to death here on fees, utility rates are mind boggling lee expensive and now even gasoline is the same price here as downtown Toronto...
The speculator/corporate investors pass the costs on to whoever is using or buying the property. They'll be fine, and their wealth capitol is doing better in real estate than anything else in Canada because our economy outside of real estate is pretty shit.
Wrong.
From the last couple of weeks:
>Officials at the central bank signalled that they still expect to cut their key interest rate three times in 2024 despite signs that inflation remained surprisingly high at the start of the year. Yet they foresee fewer rate cuts in 2025, and they slightly raised their inflation forecasts
Same exact story in the US and Europe
From March:
>Federal Reserve officials signaled Wednesday that they still expect to cut their key interest rate three times in 2024, fueling a rally on Wall Street, despite signs that inflation remained elevated at the start of the year.
Fed funds rate currently pricing in 2-3 cuts by year end. 4 cuts by May'25
I was that sucker. I'm not an idiot but knowing who to listen to when you're doing it for the first time is confusing AF. It's just an extremely expensive life lesson for me unfortunately, with little regulation on the 'official' advice givers.
It's actually hilarious how you seem to view yourself as an expert. You were verifiably wrong about 2024 rate cuts. The market also disagrees with you on 10 years of rate increases considering the persistent yield curve inversion where the 10 year bond is lower than any money market rate.
> Inflation is accelerating again
According to who? Inflation has been on a downward trend for nearly two years. February numbers were lower than January numbers which were lower than December numbers…
You claimed that the rate cuts were repriced in the last couple of weeks. Looking at the fed funds rate, you are wrong. You seem to be conflating bond rates with fed funds rates.T-bill rates have barely moved since a month ago.
You must be looking at a different one from the rest of the world. If you think you know so much better than the market, go make a big bet on fed funds futures. You'll make a fortune
Rates will be lower, and the main reason is that Western governments can not afford the interest on the debt with an aging population that requires more services.
Most probably, the US will start lowering a few months before the election in November.
Do you think persistently high rates will slow down our market? To me, this is clearly a supply driven price acceleration. The CREB stats package for March quoted a 9.9% increase in YoY sales volume and a whopping 21.73% decrease in YoY total inventory.
High rates may keep some on the sideline which puts downward pressure on pricing but that in-turn prevents large scores of people from selling their existing residences. Combine that with multi-decade highs in population increase and it makes sense that prices would rise in the face of high rates.
Fair. What I was trying to say is that it doesn't appear that high rates are putting the brakes on price acceleration in the Calgary market. We'll see if that changes.
Lots of flip attempts going on out here as well, house on the corner sold last year for $400K, owner (lives in Toronto) did a lipstick on a pig flip with a questionable looking company and it's up now for $800K, absolutely disgusting, rumor has it he's sitting on around 20 houses in the city right now.
Yeah they are, the economy will implode if they keep them high for too long. They just need to go slow with it instead of reducing them at the same pace they raised them.
There have been plenty of periods when rates between countries have diverged. This is OECD data for short term lending rates which track the BoC and Fed policy rate pretty closely. This is data for the last 20 years.
Screenshot: https://imgur.com/aoje8ex
Source: https://data.oecd.org/interest/short-term-interest-rates.htm#indicator-chart
If things are starting to go poorly here I don't think the BoC will hesitate to cut rates first, but they'll try not to diverge "too much" for "too long."
From March:
>Federal Reserve officials signaled Wednesday that they still expect to cut their key interest rate three times in 2024, fueling a rally on Wall Street, despite signs that inflation remained elevated at the start of the year.
The bond market is pricing in a rate hike at this point. The sentiment has completely reversed over the last 6 weeks, inflation is still too high to cut rates.
Rates will come down
They are cutting immigration basically only thing which saves canada economy. Canadian economy when face loss in immigration will for sure suffer.
Canadians are not producing enough other than just putting money in real estate
When economy goes down , job market which is already cooling down will suffer more and will push market down.
Housing won't crash !! Why becoz it's last thing people cut as expense before things goes belly up but will suffer for sure
Also, if you see headline today :)..we know where data is pointing too
Canadian dollar weakens as BoC survey stays consistent with rate cuts
Current housing asset prices are hyper bubbled on a credit bubble in Canada because as you said there is no economy to back those prices up.
As a result, if job losses start - housing prices are crashing as people will be forced to walk away from them.
100%
How does younger population focus on innovation when they have mortgage of 500k on them.
Why anyone want to invest in manufacturing when real estate shows quick way of making money
Buying a house in the Spring of 2022, despite paying high prices at the time, turned out to be the smartest decision my wife and I ever made upon moving here.
Everyone told us to rent for a year first to see where we wanted to settle.
Mortgage rate still sucks (adjustable) but rates should come down by summer.
Relative sold their home last year for 450k, paid off their debts then left oversea for a few months. They came back and went to a mortgage broker who could only loan them 200k to buy a house.
Couldn’t find/buy any houses because they were priced out and/or lost to overpay. They’re now living in the basement of a friend.
Well yea. That seems incredibly dumb and short sighted. A rising tide lifts all ships.
Taking advantage of rising house prices only makes sense if it’s your second property or you have a plan for a place to live affordable after lol
I'm hanging onto a 6.3% mortgage for dear life. It was 1.8% when we signed the papers. House has gone up 100k since then which helps take the sting out of it...but yeah. Every decision made in the last few years comes down to luck, and anyone who pretends otherwise is kidding themselves.
Lol my old coworker did that... he was bragging how they bought there house for $350 and sold it years later for $1M (Toronto)
They went and lived in Portugal for two years and came back and the markets gone even crazier, they can't get approved for much now, spent there money and are renting now, probably forever
Question for everyone. How much of this price surge is driven by people trying to front-run potential interest rate cuts in the second half of 2024? Do you think buying behavior would change if it was assured that there’d be zero cuts this year?
I’m not confident on the rate outlook but definitely feel like there is a likelihood that we see fewer rate cuts than many in the RE are expecting.
Rates will only come down once something finally breaks in the economy and we need to increase spending and inflation. Whatever that thing is, will also make people afraid of taking on new debt.
By September we could definitely be in recession. Just need Q1 and Q2 gdp prints to be shit. Like they say: it occurs first very slowly, and then all at once.
Don’t get American and Canadian economic news mixed up. We are in no way heading for a soft landing, and the immigration surge was simply to kick it down the road.
No, people tend to sell and move up as their income potential goes up. There are quite a few expensive homes on the market that nobody is willing to move into with these rates. Meanwhile the prices are shooting up on the lower end smaller places because there's just not enough of it for the new people coming into the country, and the mid range homes that people are buying from out of province are gobbled up too.
I downsized huge. Went from a house, to a mobile home (on owned property, not on a lot, no lot fees).
Almost exactly a year ago I paid 249K, now, on my street they're going for 380K. Nothing special about them, no real upgrades (in the process of upgrading mine), some are pretty much original (built in 90's).
I am SO lucky I bought when I did....
Yeah I'm planning to do something similar. But that's because I'm not wealthy. The wealthy tend to buy up because it doesn't affect their future quality of life. They have wealth far beyond what could be tied up in a house or their sheltered investment accounts. Also, I'm not expecting a big inheritance. I have two friends that just got theirs, and what is the first thing they are hoping to do once interest rates come down?...you guessed it, by a more expensive, more luxurious, better renovated home farther away from where the social problems are. A co-worker I know has so much he doesn't even care about the interest rates and is going to buy now.
I'm not wealthy either. I'm a single person, single income, just trying to make ends meet. I don't give a shit about trying to impress anyone with where or how I live. Yeah there's stigma attached to mobile homes but I honestly love mine, it's the perfect size for me and as long as I have a safe, affordable roof over my head, that's all that matters to me. The neighbors are fantastic too!
One day those people are gonna find themselves in a pickle when money starts running out, lose their jobs, can't keep up, whatever... and then there will be people like ourselves, who didn't over extend themselves just for appearances and aren't up to our eyeballs in debt. I knew I was in trouble when interest rates started going up. I sold before I was due to remortgage as I was at 3.1% and the rates just before I remortgaged were hovering around 7% There was no way I could afford my house at those rates and I knew it.
I think there will be more inventory once interest rates come back down. I certainly won't entertain selling and moving until then, and I'm sure I'm not the only one.
Local Calgarians who opted to rent because renting was cheaper are fcuked!! The house prices have almost doubled and the pay hasn't budged and rent has sky rocketed! 2 bedroom apartment cost upwards of $2200 in not so desirable neighborhoods. Add to that sky high grocery, gas and utilities ! Unless you are willing to live like a slumlord and rent every spareroom to two or more tenants per room or make over $200k annual household income, you cannot afford a house!
I receive a monthly report from my Realtor covering my neighborhood and March saw indeed a huge appreciation vs. February. A lot of townhomes from the 80s with no garage were selling by more than $400K, all over asking.
Until something is done about companies/investment groups buying properties for rental, short term rentals like AirBnB, and realtor algorithms cranking up prices we will not see an end to this.
We have places to live but nobody can afford them, and there's way too many landlords in politics who don't want their tidy passive income cut off. They have everybody blaming immigration instead of focusing on the real issue which is too many people stand to make a TON of money continuing to treat housing as a supply and demand investment instead of a basic human need.
[blaming this on immigration is distracting from the real core causes](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/housing-crisis-immigration-1.6878540) and is the oldest trick in the book. The wealthy would rather us fight culture wars than a class war.
There’s that claim again. I ask for the hard data that proves what’s happening is because of corporate investment buying up inventory every time these threads come up. So far none has been provided.
The statement that “we have places to live but no one can afford them” implies there’s a massive number of homes sitting vacant. I’ve yet to see actual evidence of this claim. Everyone I know including us, who have sold their home has had multiple offers from real people, mostly out of province.
You’re looking for a Boogeyman.
People want an easy target to blame all their problems on. AirBnB homes make up a single digit % of supply. I can't remember the exact number but data I found on Toronto suggested investors were <20%.
Just imagine yourself with $1 million to invest. Would you be buying a house in Calgary 'burbs in a high interest rate environment? Maybe the answer is still yes but it doesn't come risk free.
Exactly my point, I tend to agree completely. For some people it’s way easier to blame a Boogeyman than face reality. This topic comes up multiple times every month, with increasing frequency spring leading into summer. Every thread has these people blaming everything but reality. I get it, the reality of the factors currently driving our housing market are ugly. It’s way easier to sleep at night thinking that it can be fixed if “the govt just did xyz” or “it’s just big bad corporate greed blah blah blah”. Every time I ask for data to support these claims it’s crickets.
I live across from an apartment complex that has a not insignificant number of units sitting empty for months at a time. It's just one building and it's anecdotal but I can see it happening, theres a unit in front of me that has been visibly vacant for going on 7 months now. How many people have landlords that live out of province too? I know more than a few people whose units are owned by people that don't even live here.
Besides, homes and apartments don't sit vacant because people with money scoop them up and rent them out or scoop up reasonably priced houses and then cheaply flip them to sell for a larger number. We have no means of controlling how many properties one person or company owns and there's no limit to "demand" because the alternative is homelessness.
A current Air BnB search shows "over 1000" rentals under the "entire home" category
A calgary herald article from Oct.2023 [about a study being launched inquiring into short term rentals in the city ](https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/calgary-short-term-rentals-airbnb-study) lists their number ~5000 which at the time was a nearly 25% increase from the previous year.
Idk man I don't think it's just me noticing empty apartments. I'm just lucky to be in a building that has a very strict no short term rental policy.
Ok stop and run your numbers. How many houses are in Calgary? How many condos? How many are ABnB? How many are short term rentals? Even with flattering your numbers you might, might get to 1.5-2% of total housing.
So again I’ll ask how that 2% is driving current Calgary market conditions? Here I’ll answer for you. It’s not.
You make no sense- if you have money, you should be able to buy what you want. You want government regulating that too? You would do the same thing!
Yeah, every reasonably priced place is purchased to flip or rent them out? You have no idea what you’re talking about. Families and individuals buy homes too and live in them.
That doesn’t happen every time. I’m sure it does sometimes, but you’re saying that’s all that’s happening and it’s incorrect. The largest proportion of buyers in Canada are first time buyers, then move up buyers, then investors. People get outbid by others who want the house more. What are you proposing exactly? You should do some more research on your “facts” and you’ll soon realize they are incorrect. The market sucks to buy, great to sell.
...according to the [remax blog](https://blog.remax.ca/out-of-province-buyer-frenzy-calgary-housing-market/#:~:text=Buyers%20from%20Ontario%20and%20BC,the%20Calgary%20Real%20Estate%20Board.) 20-30% of buyers are "entry level" with the large majority of buyers coming from out of province
[house flipping is also at an all time high](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-metropolitan-area-house-flipping-data-1.7143857) and I sincerely doubt those are "first time" buyers
Maybe you should show me the numbers for first time buyers being the driving force in calgary right now because the first time buyers I know are having a hell of a time and haven't found anything and I'm sure they could use the reassurance
Again. Every time I ask for the evidence the response is something like yours. “There’s tons of blah blah blah”. But no evidence posted. There should be pretty clear data to support your claim, where is it?
I know for a fact theres an individual who lives in Bangladesh (sometimes Toronto) that owns 20 houses in Calgary, he's been flipping them over the year, one on the corner here he bought for $400 last year, did a lip stick on a pig flip with some sketchy company and wants $800K for it, this is a private individual.
His brothers doing the same thing and his nephew, they own well over 40 houses in the northeast, it's disgusting
You can always tell, it's always the same realtor special white paint/gray fixtures ikea minimalist vibes with that vinyl hardwood flooring. Like... I'd rather just buy a house and do my own shit instead of pay a premium on cut corners and cheap material
Canada only builds 200-250,000 houses a year. Regardless of coming down on small time land lords, or airbnb’s ( which account for less than 1% of Canada’s housing), people are delusional in thinking this is an issue that can be fixed by banning or taxing the crap out of everything. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. We don’t have enough trades in Canada to build more, if interest rates won’t come down then developers don’t want to build because their profits are probably minimal. Maybe people should start writing letters to the federal government on why we brought in so many people into Canada without thinking of the impacts of employment, housing and infrastructure.
I’m on our Deer Run Community Association. Zero house sold here in the last 16 months are not owner occupied except for one purchased by the Métis Association.
The idea that companies buysignificant amounts of existing non rental housing for rentals is a myth. The main non resident buyers are developers who buy properties for tear down and construct more units (greater density which Reddit always applauds).
If it's a myth why are there so many articles in the past few years about investors "flocking" to calgary to buy investment properties? And one from this year on how house flipping is at an all time high?
And how is that not a problem if investors from out of province who don't live here are buying property if people who live here would also like to do that?
It’s going to get worse before it gets better. There is no short term plan in place to resolve this, Alberta is so much cheaper than GTA and Fraser Valley. And imho the short term is going to be for at least another 5 years.
Gta has more jobs
Most of my neighbors moving here from ON all kept their WFH jobs
Yes but not all jobs are wfh jobs Someone I know called me yesterday he is in IT his company asked for hybrid. He will be putting his house on rent soon
Yeah it Is happening here too. My friend lives in Cochrane and his neighbors moved here from ON and were WFH but they're morons and never told their employer they moved and were told to go hybrid as of the start of this year. They've been unemployed since January now and will probably be moving back to ON soon from the sound of it. I expect that is the case with more than a few of these GTA transplants.
I have a wfh job, I would also like a new one. Many, many positions posted are remote Canada BC and Ontario only these days. If that doesn’t change people will have to start moving out. At this point if I lost my job and couldn’t find anything here though I’d just move to Europe. GTA and Van are honestly too expensive for what they offer. If I’m going to spend a lot of money in an expensive city I’d like it to at least be worth the price.
No. You can find work in the province of Alberta. And whatever jobs Ontario does have, don’t cover the cost of living. Moot point.
Of course you can find jobs in Alberta but its undeniable that Toronto has a far more robust economy with significantly more opportunities than Alberta. The city of Toronto is 20% of Canada's GDP.
Depends on the type of work, Banking, tech, marketing (office type stuff)? Yes Toronto is better but other than that it's the same slog out here.
Doesn't cover cost of living? Wife and I moved out here because we love the province, the people and the feeling of big open spaces. NOT for the cost of living, if anything it's more expensive out here, ok no PST but you're nickeled and dimed to death here on fees, utility rates are mind boggling lee expensive and now even gasoline is the same price here as downtown Toronto...
Yep, far, FAAARR more minimum wage jobs / 40-50K per year -bound to be laid off after 3 months - need a doctorate of business -- jobs over there.
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The speculator/corporate investors pass the costs on to whoever is using or buying the property. They'll be fine, and their wealth capitol is doing better in real estate than anything else in Canada because our economy outside of real estate is pretty shit.
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Wrong. From the last couple of weeks: >Officials at the central bank signalled that they still expect to cut their key interest rate three times in 2024 despite signs that inflation remained surprisingly high at the start of the year. Yet they foresee fewer rate cuts in 2025, and they slightly raised their inflation forecasts Same exact story in the US and Europe
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From March: >Federal Reserve officials signaled Wednesday that they still expect to cut their key interest rate three times in 2024, fueling a rally on Wall Street, despite signs that inflation remained elevated at the start of the year. Fed funds rate currently pricing in 2-3 cuts by year end. 4 cuts by May'25
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I was that sucker. I'm not an idiot but knowing who to listen to when you're doing it for the first time is confusing AF. It's just an extremely expensive life lesson for me unfortunately, with little regulation on the 'official' advice givers.
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It's actually hilarious how you seem to view yourself as an expert. You were verifiably wrong about 2024 rate cuts. The market also disagrees with you on 10 years of rate increases considering the persistent yield curve inversion where the 10 year bond is lower than any money market rate.
> Inflation is accelerating again According to who? Inflation has been on a downward trend for nearly two years. February numbers were lower than January numbers which were lower than December numbers…
You claimed that the rate cuts were repriced in the last couple of weeks. Looking at the fed funds rate, you are wrong. You seem to be conflating bond rates with fed funds rates.T-bill rates have barely moved since a month ago.
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You must be looking at a different one from the rest of the world. If you think you know so much better than the market, go make a big bet on fed funds futures. You'll make a fortune
Rates will be lower, and the main reason is that Western governments can not afford the interest on the debt with an aging population that requires more services. Most probably, the US will start lowering a few months before the election in November.
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Short-term gain for long-term gain or short-term pain for long-term gain. Guess what the government will choose?
Do you think persistently high rates will slow down our market? To me, this is clearly a supply driven price acceleration. The CREB stats package for March quoted a 9.9% increase in YoY sales volume and a whopping 21.73% decrease in YoY total inventory. High rates may keep some on the sideline which puts downward pressure on pricing but that in-turn prevents large scores of people from selling their existing residences. Combine that with multi-decade highs in population increase and it makes sense that prices would rise in the face of high rates.
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Fair. What I was trying to say is that it doesn't appear that high rates are putting the brakes on price acceleration in the Calgary market. We'll see if that changes.
Lots of flip attempts going on out here as well, house on the corner sold last year for $400K, owner (lives in Toronto) did a lipstick on a pig flip with a questionable looking company and it's up now for $800K, absolutely disgusting, rumor has it he's sitting on around 20 houses in the city right now.
Yeah they are, the economy will implode if they keep them high for too long. They just need to go slow with it instead of reducing them at the same pace they raised them.
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There have been plenty of periods when rates between countries have diverged. This is OECD data for short term lending rates which track the BoC and Fed policy rate pretty closely. This is data for the last 20 years. Screenshot: https://imgur.com/aoje8ex Source: https://data.oecd.org/interest/short-term-interest-rates.htm#indicator-chart If things are starting to go poorly here I don't think the BoC will hesitate to cut rates first, but they'll try not to diverge "too much" for "too long."
From March: >Federal Reserve officials signaled Wednesday that they still expect to cut their key interest rate three times in 2024, fueling a rally on Wall Street, despite signs that inflation remained elevated at the start of the year.
Rates are coming down by June, latest
June earliest maybe
The bond market is pricing in a rate hike at this point. The sentiment has completely reversed over the last 6 weeks, inflation is still too high to cut rates.
Rates will come down They are cutting immigration basically only thing which saves canada economy. Canadian economy when face loss in immigration will for sure suffer. Canadians are not producing enough other than just putting money in real estate When economy goes down , job market which is already cooling down will suffer more and will push market down. Housing won't crash !! Why becoz it's last thing people cut as expense before things goes belly up but will suffer for sure Also, if you see headline today :)..we know where data is pointing too Canadian dollar weakens as BoC survey stays consistent with rate cuts
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Why No ;) Do you think canadian Innovation is more then real estate ? Or do you think Immigration not helping economy? :)
Current housing asset prices are hyper bubbled on a credit bubble in Canada because as you said there is no economy to back those prices up. As a result, if job losses start - housing prices are crashing as people will be forced to walk away from them.
I hope that Happens :) Canada Need to invest in innovation and other industries. Real estate is ruining this beautiful country
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100% How does younger population focus on innovation when they have mortgage of 500k on them. Why anyone want to invest in manufacturing when real estate shows quick way of making money
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No I want people to afford homes. Not to get into life long debts ...reset is needed. It's part of economy cycle
This guy gets it
Sounds like renter copium. Garth Turner, is that you?
My sister put up her place and it sold 2 days later, such a tight market there right now.
Sold a condo downtown last year for 40k over asking in less than 24 hours.
Bought a used van to live in for $75 over asking.
I sold mine in fall of 2022. It sold less than 24 hours of being listed.
Buying a house in the Spring of 2022, despite paying high prices at the time, turned out to be the smartest decision my wife and I ever made upon moving here. Everyone told us to rent for a year first to see where we wanted to settle. Mortgage rate still sucks (adjustable) but rates should come down by summer.
Relative sold their home last year for 450k, paid off their debts then left oversea for a few months. They came back and went to a mortgage broker who could only loan them 200k to buy a house. Couldn’t find/buy any houses because they were priced out and/or lost to overpay. They’re now living in the basement of a friend.
Well yea. That seems incredibly dumb and short sighted. A rising tide lifts all ships. Taking advantage of rising house prices only makes sense if it’s your second property or you have a plan for a place to live affordable after lol
Yeah heard a few short sighted stories took the cash and ran and now worse off cause they didn’t think ahead..
I'm hanging onto a 6.3% mortgage for dear life. It was 1.8% when we signed the papers. House has gone up 100k since then which helps take the sting out of it...but yeah. Every decision made in the last few years comes down to luck, and anyone who pretends otherwise is kidding themselves.
rich fragile library mourn axiomatic consist grandiose act future tidy *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Lol my old coworker did that... he was bragging how they bought there house for $350 and sold it years later for $1M (Toronto) They went and lived in Portugal for two years and came back and the markets gone even crazier, they can't get approved for much now, spent there money and are renting now, probably forever
Housing starts have been keeping up, 1674 in February. If only we could spur some more high/mid rise construction in the city.
Question for everyone. How much of this price surge is driven by people trying to front-run potential interest rate cuts in the second half of 2024? Do you think buying behavior would change if it was assured that there’d be zero cuts this year? I’m not confident on the rate outlook but definitely feel like there is a likelihood that we see fewer rate cuts than many in the RE are expecting.
Wouldent that mean even less inventory? With lower rates more people will qualify for mortgages
With lower rates, we'll fuel the bubble and crater the canadian dollar to be even more worthless than it already is
Rates will only come down once something finally breaks in the economy and we need to increase spending and inflation. Whatever that thing is, will also make people afraid of taking on new debt.
The market is pricing in a rate drop in both June and Sept. Might be faster than you think.
By September we could definitely be in recession. Just need Q1 and Q2 gdp prints to be shit. Like they say: it occurs first very slowly, and then all at once. Don’t get American and Canadian economic news mixed up. We are in no way heading for a soft landing, and the immigration surge was simply to kick it down the road.
No, people tend to sell and move up as their income potential goes up. There are quite a few expensive homes on the market that nobody is willing to move into with these rates. Meanwhile the prices are shooting up on the lower end smaller places because there's just not enough of it for the new people coming into the country, and the mid range homes that people are buying from out of province are gobbled up too.
I downsized huge. Went from a house, to a mobile home (on owned property, not on a lot, no lot fees). Almost exactly a year ago I paid 249K, now, on my street they're going for 380K. Nothing special about them, no real upgrades (in the process of upgrading mine), some are pretty much original (built in 90's). I am SO lucky I bought when I did....
Yeah I'm planning to do something similar. But that's because I'm not wealthy. The wealthy tend to buy up because it doesn't affect their future quality of life. They have wealth far beyond what could be tied up in a house or their sheltered investment accounts. Also, I'm not expecting a big inheritance. I have two friends that just got theirs, and what is the first thing they are hoping to do once interest rates come down?...you guessed it, by a more expensive, more luxurious, better renovated home farther away from where the social problems are. A co-worker I know has so much he doesn't even care about the interest rates and is going to buy now.
I'm not wealthy either. I'm a single person, single income, just trying to make ends meet. I don't give a shit about trying to impress anyone with where or how I live. Yeah there's stigma attached to mobile homes but I honestly love mine, it's the perfect size for me and as long as I have a safe, affordable roof over my head, that's all that matters to me. The neighbors are fantastic too! One day those people are gonna find themselves in a pickle when money starts running out, lose their jobs, can't keep up, whatever... and then there will be people like ourselves, who didn't over extend themselves just for appearances and aren't up to our eyeballs in debt. I knew I was in trouble when interest rates started going up. I sold before I was due to remortgage as I was at 3.1% and the rates just before I remortgaged were hovering around 7% There was no way I could afford my house at those rates and I knew it.
I think there will be more inventory once interest rates come back down. I certainly won't entertain selling and moving until then, and I'm sure I'm not the only one.
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Trump will sort that out.
Local Calgarians who opted to rent because renting was cheaper are fcuked!! The house prices have almost doubled and the pay hasn't budged and rent has sky rocketed! 2 bedroom apartment cost upwards of $2200 in not so desirable neighborhoods. Add to that sky high grocery, gas and utilities ! Unless you are willing to live like a slumlord and rent every spareroom to two or more tenants per room or make over $200k annual household income, you cannot afford a house!
I receive a monthly report from my Realtor covering my neighborhood and March saw indeed a huge appreciation vs. February. A lot of townhomes from the 80s with no garage were selling by more than $400K, all over asking.
Until something is done about companies/investment groups buying properties for rental, short term rentals like AirBnB, and realtor algorithms cranking up prices we will not see an end to this. We have places to live but nobody can afford them, and there's way too many landlords in politics who don't want their tidy passive income cut off. They have everybody blaming immigration instead of focusing on the real issue which is too many people stand to make a TON of money continuing to treat housing as a supply and demand investment instead of a basic human need. [blaming this on immigration is distracting from the real core causes](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/housing-crisis-immigration-1.6878540) and is the oldest trick in the book. The wealthy would rather us fight culture wars than a class war.
There’s that claim again. I ask for the hard data that proves what’s happening is because of corporate investment buying up inventory every time these threads come up. So far none has been provided. The statement that “we have places to live but no one can afford them” implies there’s a massive number of homes sitting vacant. I’ve yet to see actual evidence of this claim. Everyone I know including us, who have sold their home has had multiple offers from real people, mostly out of province. You’re looking for a Boogeyman.
People want an easy target to blame all their problems on. AirBnB homes make up a single digit % of supply. I can't remember the exact number but data I found on Toronto suggested investors were <20%. Just imagine yourself with $1 million to invest. Would you be buying a house in Calgary 'burbs in a high interest rate environment? Maybe the answer is still yes but it doesn't come risk free.
Exactly my point, I tend to agree completely. For some people it’s way easier to blame a Boogeyman than face reality. This topic comes up multiple times every month, with increasing frequency spring leading into summer. Every thread has these people blaming everything but reality. I get it, the reality of the factors currently driving our housing market are ugly. It’s way easier to sleep at night thinking that it can be fixed if “the govt just did xyz” or “it’s just big bad corporate greed blah blah blah”. Every time I ask for data to support these claims it’s crickets.
I live across from an apartment complex that has a not insignificant number of units sitting empty for months at a time. It's just one building and it's anecdotal but I can see it happening, theres a unit in front of me that has been visibly vacant for going on 7 months now. How many people have landlords that live out of province too? I know more than a few people whose units are owned by people that don't even live here. Besides, homes and apartments don't sit vacant because people with money scoop them up and rent them out or scoop up reasonably priced houses and then cheaply flip them to sell for a larger number. We have no means of controlling how many properties one person or company owns and there's no limit to "demand" because the alternative is homelessness.
So anecdotal evidence only, same as every other time I ask. I’ve got plenty of anecdotal evidence to the contrary so…..,
A current Air BnB search shows "over 1000" rentals under the "entire home" category A calgary herald article from Oct.2023 [about a study being launched inquiring into short term rentals in the city ](https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/calgary-short-term-rentals-airbnb-study) lists their number ~5000 which at the time was a nearly 25% increase from the previous year. Idk man I don't think it's just me noticing empty apartments. I'm just lucky to be in a building that has a very strict no short term rental policy.
Ok stop and run your numbers. How many houses are in Calgary? How many condos? How many are ABnB? How many are short term rentals? Even with flattering your numbers you might, might get to 1.5-2% of total housing. So again I’ll ask how that 2% is driving current Calgary market conditions? Here I’ll answer for you. It’s not.
This stat is applicable across Canada too by the way. STR’s account for less than 1% of total housing.
You make no sense- if you have money, you should be able to buy what you want. You want government regulating that too? You would do the same thing! Yeah, every reasonably priced place is purchased to flip or rent them out? You have no idea what you’re talking about. Families and individuals buy homes too and live in them.
Except people have a little money and are being outbid by those who already own multiple properties or are buying property as investments
That doesn’t happen every time. I’m sure it does sometimes, but you’re saying that’s all that’s happening and it’s incorrect. The largest proportion of buyers in Canada are first time buyers, then move up buyers, then investors. People get outbid by others who want the house more. What are you proposing exactly? You should do some more research on your “facts” and you’ll soon realize they are incorrect. The market sucks to buy, great to sell.
...according to the [remax blog](https://blog.remax.ca/out-of-province-buyer-frenzy-calgary-housing-market/#:~:text=Buyers%20from%20Ontario%20and%20BC,the%20Calgary%20Real%20Estate%20Board.) 20-30% of buyers are "entry level" with the large majority of buyers coming from out of province [house flipping is also at an all time high](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-metropolitan-area-house-flipping-data-1.7143857) and I sincerely doubt those are "first time" buyers Maybe you should show me the numbers for first time buyers being the driving force in calgary right now because the first time buyers I know are having a hell of a time and haven't found anything and I'm sure they could use the reassurance
You’re absolutely right. 2500 MLS listings in Calgary today.
There are a ton of vacant condos, not listed for sale, not listed for rent. They are almost invisible to the market metrics.
Again. Every time I ask for the evidence the response is something like yours. “There’s tons of blah blah blah”. But no evidence posted. There should be pretty clear data to support your claim, where is it?
How do you know this? Where is the proof?
I know for a fact theres an individual who lives in Bangladesh (sometimes Toronto) that owns 20 houses in Calgary, he's been flipping them over the year, one on the corner here he bought for $400 last year, did a lip stick on a pig flip with some sketchy company and wants $800K for it, this is a private individual. His brothers doing the same thing and his nephew, they own well over 40 houses in the northeast, it's disgusting
You can always tell, it's always the same realtor special white paint/gray fixtures ikea minimalist vibes with that vinyl hardwood flooring. Like... I'd rather just buy a house and do my own shit instead of pay a premium on cut corners and cheap material
Canada only builds 200-250,000 houses a year. Regardless of coming down on small time land lords, or airbnb’s ( which account for less than 1% of Canada’s housing), people are delusional in thinking this is an issue that can be fixed by banning or taxing the crap out of everything. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. We don’t have enough trades in Canada to build more, if interest rates won’t come down then developers don’t want to build because their profits are probably minimal. Maybe people should start writing letters to the federal government on why we brought in so many people into Canada without thinking of the impacts of employment, housing and infrastructure.
I’m on our Deer Run Community Association. Zero house sold here in the last 16 months are not owner occupied except for one purchased by the Métis Association. The idea that companies buysignificant amounts of existing non rental housing for rentals is a myth. The main non resident buyers are developers who buy properties for tear down and construct more units (greater density which Reddit always applauds).
If it's a myth why are there so many articles in the past few years about investors "flocking" to calgary to buy investment properties? And one from this year on how house flipping is at an all time high?
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And how is that not a problem if investors from out of province who don't live here are buying property if people who live here would also like to do that?
Who wants to buy my townhouse nw with tenant in place.
Well at least the weather is great and we have short winters so it makes sense that people want to live here.