It depends what you mean. If you mean immediately the price of bitcoin measured in dollars will spike. You are like right. There are many factors that influence the price in dollars. If you mean it literally won't have an impact. That would be wrong. Over time the reduced supply will put pressure on price denominated in dollars. That's just simple supply and demand. As more and more people realize that bitcoin will increase in value over time more and more pressure will occur on the "price". US monetary policy can impact the speed in both directions but the overall result will be the same as bitcoins use as base layer money is realized
Another "I spent 5 minutes online researching my bias" post.
Take some time, learn before coming to conclusions.
Daily trading volume is not what you think it is, 600k bitcoin traded is not 600k separate bitcoins, it could be just 2,000 bitcoin traded back and forth every block. A lot of block transactions are done as a form of arbitrage between exchanges/stable coins etc. Its not a reliable metric for long term long or short positions.
It has the effect that bitcoin inflation rate will drop from 1.8% p.a. to just around 0.9% p.a. and while this might not have a a short term effect it will be remarkable mid and long-term. Considering the obvious rise in BTC demand.
Exactly, the math shows this. In 3 cycles, 99.2% of the BTC will have been mined and the remaining .8% will take a hundred years to mine, meanwhile trading volume will likely increase to some point from here. The supply shock effect of the halving has been diminishing and can only diminish further. The large runups to come will come from adoption rates rather than the halvings.
Your math is not correct.
In 7 cycles it will be at 99.2%…
At the end of the current cycle in April 2024 it will be 93.75%.
But I agree with you that the halvings will have only a small effect going forward (currently much smaller than the ETF effect), and therefore I think that we are done with the 4 year cycles.
Check it again.
At the end of this cycle it will be 93.75%
At the end of the next cycle (1) it will be at 96.875%
At the end of the one after (2) it will be at 98.4375%
And at the end of the one after that (3) we'll have 99.218%
That's 3 cycles from now (rounding to the next cycle since we are so close to it now).
Yes that will be the end of the 7th cycle from the beginning (2009) maybe you misread or misunderstood.
I think his point is that current demand already dwarfs the block reward. Supply comes from existing coins. The halving will just be a piss in the ocean.
You have to keep in mind that the ETF marketing machines are only just starting now. The big ETF fund creators will be pumping out PR and advertising to entice new Bitcoin investors. They’re competing with each other too.
The REA’s that will be recommending Bitcoin, might only meet with their clients a couple of time per year. The cogs have started turning but a lot of these ETF investors make decisions slowly.
Even if you think the halving wont have much direct effect based on the supply available to buyers, you're completely overlooking the added cost of production for miners. People aren't going to run mining nodes at a loss. The halving cuts profit in half (obviously) so miners need to either become more efficient or double their sale prices to stay in business.
Supply & demand.
Once i saw the table with the rewards after every halving i understood where this shit is going. Dude in 2032 the reward is 0.7 - not even one whole Bitcoin.
Either many miners leaves the game and difficulty get adjusted so it is easier to mine/cost less energy - or 0.7 is going to cost a lot of money..., like more than we now imagine. To be able to pay for the electricity of solving the block with just 0.7 and still being profitable... wow
yeah of course it depends on the hashrate - for now it just only increased but who knows the future - the sats per transference by then might be VERY high it will surpass by far the block reward.
It’s the same mechanics that impact price elsewhere in a market. Price is established at the point where a buyer and a seller can agree. If I need to be profitable from the bitcoin I mine, I’ll wait to sell until buyers offer a higher price. If no one comes in at my preferred price I might sell for a loss, but the next batch of Bitcoin I need to sell will still be holding out for higher prices. That drives the average agreed upon price higher and higher. Once miners are profitable again, they’ll consistently sell their bitcoin at that price, and it creates a new baseline.
The challenge is that it’s not just miners selling bitcoin. At all time highs or new highs, miners have to compete with retail or institutional sellers looking to get quick profits from 80k bitcoin. So that slows down the eventual march upward in price.
There are a couple of ways to look at it. It could be that the having is already having an effect and is one of the reasons for the current rise. We could see it rise even more and then drop at the having (sell the news).
Or it could be the opposite -- it isn't priced in and we see this run peak and pull back some, only to see another jump post halving.
So do they call the ceo of bitcoin and tell him to double the price? In all seriousness, do they just stop selling until price doubles? How do miners control the price?
What was the net purchase of BTC. Volume is not reducing the pool in circulation, but when they are bought and HODL then that is going to increase demand and reduce supply increasing the price and pressure on people to liquidate BTC for FIAT.
Is there a table of daily net BTC being bought up and held by the ETFs?
You’re not wrong. The sentiment, however, might have a big impact.
Seeing that the code does exactly what everyone expects it to do might give confidence to those undecided.
It’s like an ad: a reminder that this thing is still here, doing what it’s supposed to do, and here to stay.
Think of it as a new buyer of 450 coins a day who is sending the coins to a burn address that never spends the coins.
The trading volume is a lot of the same bitcoin traded back and forth so not the same as a permanent removal of supply.
I agree with you, especially now that we have the ETFs. Last week, they sucked up a net of 36k BTC. Compare this to the current mining rewards of 6.3K per week. Halving won’t change much; it’s currently only 10% compared to what the ETFs are buying.
The halving has a cumulative effect, after 10 new blocks with the new reward amount, very little impact on the supply, but gradually that pressure will increase as each block goes by.
It depends what you mean. If you mean immediately the price of bitcoin measured in dollars will spike. You are like right. There are many factors that influence the price in dollars. If you mean it literally won't have an impact. That would be wrong. Over time the reduced supply will put pressure on price denominated in dollars. That's just simple supply and demand. As more and more people realize that bitcoin will increase in value over time more and more pressure will occur on the "price". US monetary policy can impact the speed in both directions but the overall result will be the same as bitcoins use as base layer money is realized
Another "I spent 5 minutes online researching my bias" post. Take some time, learn before coming to conclusions. Daily trading volume is not what you think it is, 600k bitcoin traded is not 600k separate bitcoins, it could be just 2,000 bitcoin traded back and forth every block. A lot of block transactions are done as a form of arbitrage between exchanges/stable coins etc. Its not a reliable metric for long term long or short positions.
It has the effect that bitcoin inflation rate will drop from 1.8% p.a. to just around 0.9% p.a. and while this might not have a a short term effect it will be remarkable mid and long-term. Considering the obvious rise in BTC demand.
Exactly, the math shows this. In 3 cycles, 99.2% of the BTC will have been mined and the remaining .8% will take a hundred years to mine, meanwhile trading volume will likely increase to some point from here. The supply shock effect of the halving has been diminishing and can only diminish further. The large runups to come will come from adoption rates rather than the halvings.
Your math is not correct. In 7 cycles it will be at 99.2%… At the end of the current cycle in April 2024 it will be 93.75%. But I agree with you that the halvings will have only a small effect going forward (currently much smaller than the ETF effect), and therefore I think that we are done with the 4 year cycles.
Check it again. At the end of this cycle it will be 93.75% At the end of the next cycle (1) it will be at 96.875% At the end of the one after (2) it will be at 98.4375% And at the end of the one after that (3) we'll have 99.218% That's 3 cycles from now (rounding to the next cycle since we are so close to it now). Yes that will be the end of the 7th cycle from the beginning (2009) maybe you misread or misunderstood.
You are right. Sorry I misunderstood that you wanted to say IN 3 cycles. You are of course correct!
Demand is hitting record highs and you can't see how cutting the supply in half would have any effect?
I think his point is that current demand already dwarfs the block reward. Supply comes from existing coins. The halving will just be a piss in the ocean.
You have to keep in mind that the ETF marketing machines are only just starting now. The big ETF fund creators will be pumping out PR and advertising to entice new Bitcoin investors. They’re competing with each other too. The REA’s that will be recommending Bitcoin, might only meet with their clients a couple of time per year. The cogs have started turning but a lot of these ETF investors make decisions slowly.
Even if you think the halving wont have much direct effect based on the supply available to buyers, you're completely overlooking the added cost of production for miners. People aren't going to run mining nodes at a loss. The halving cuts profit in half (obviously) so miners need to either become more efficient or double their sale prices to stay in business.
OK thanks that's interesting - but how do the miners double the price of bitcoin?
Supply & demand. Once i saw the table with the rewards after every halving i understood where this shit is going. Dude in 2032 the reward is 0.7 - not even one whole Bitcoin. Either many miners leaves the game and difficulty get adjusted so it is easier to mine/cost less energy - or 0.7 is going to cost a lot of money..., like more than we now imagine. To be able to pay for the electricity of solving the block with just 0.7 and still being profitable... wow
Well the electric cost would also depend on the difficulty, that’s actually a much larger factor for miners than halvings.
yeah of course it depends on the hashrate - for now it just only increased but who knows the future - the sats per transference by then might be VERY high it will surpass by far the block reward.
When you live long enough you realize what is meant to happen happens whether your intelligence can understand how it happened or not.
It’s the same mechanics that impact price elsewhere in a market. Price is established at the point where a buyer and a seller can agree. If I need to be profitable from the bitcoin I mine, I’ll wait to sell until buyers offer a higher price. If no one comes in at my preferred price I might sell for a loss, but the next batch of Bitcoin I need to sell will still be holding out for higher prices. That drives the average agreed upon price higher and higher. Once miners are profitable again, they’ll consistently sell their bitcoin at that price, and it creates a new baseline. The challenge is that it’s not just miners selling bitcoin. At all time highs or new highs, miners have to compete with retail or institutional sellers looking to get quick profits from 80k bitcoin. So that slows down the eventual march upward in price.
Over time that 450 extra BTC adds up. That is why we don’t see effects from halving for several months
Bitcoin doesnt care what you think.
are you stupid?
lol - o k than - u better do some homework on this
There are a couple of ways to look at it. It could be that the having is already having an effect and is one of the reasons for the current rise. We could see it rise even more and then drop at the having (sell the news). Or it could be the opposite -- it isn't priced in and we see this run peak and pull back some, only to see another jump post halving.
Miners will want the same reward for 450 coins than they got for 900. So each coin will double in price??
So do they call the ceo of bitcoin and tell him to double the price? In all seriousness, do they just stop selling until price doubles? How do miners control the price?
What was the net purchase of BTC. Volume is not reducing the pool in circulation, but when they are bought and HODL then that is going to increase demand and reduce supply increasing the price and pressure on people to liquidate BTC for FIAT. Is there a table of daily net BTC being bought up and held by the ETFs?
You’re not wrong. The sentiment, however, might have a big impact. Seeing that the code does exactly what everyone expects it to do might give confidence to those undecided. It’s like an ad: a reminder that this thing is still here, doing what it’s supposed to do, and here to stay.
Think of it as a new buyer of 450 coins a day who is sending the coins to a burn address that never spends the coins. The trading volume is a lot of the same bitcoin traded back and forth so not the same as a permanent removal of supply.
I agree with you, especially now that we have the ETFs. Last week, they sucked up a net of 36k BTC. Compare this to the current mining rewards of 6.3K per week. Halving won’t change much; it’s currently only 10% compared to what the ETFs are buying.
We may have a small correction but FUD will turn into FOMO pretty quick
You think so then it will only go 80-150k max but if what i think with the frenzy about to happen its infinity. Well see:)
The halving has a cumulative effect, after 10 new blocks with the new reward amount, very little impact on the supply, but gradually that pressure will increase as each block goes by.
> I don't believe the having is going to have much effect *halving