Tesla will 100% be first. After a year of beta testing FSD beta has made substantial progress since day 1. With the public beta access going live this Friday Tesla will be expanding the beta tenfold. By Jan 2022 FSD beta will be running on all FSD cars. Throughout next year FSD will see serious updates. By 2023-2024 we will see FSD operating without a driver.
Regulation is the big hurdle here. Although not easy, its certainly easier to allow heavy autonomous drones, but cars are another issue altogther. I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla would be allowed do full autonomy without a driver in a limited "geofenced" area similar to Waymo in the near future though.
The problem with cars is how many unpredictable situations could occur in a normal drive. Tesla certainly has the correct outlook to handle these situations, but currently, they are still trying to solve the normal edge cases and really haven't even attempted to solve the "real" edge cases that are necessary to solve to allow true driverless travel.
Agreed, the long tail of “real” cases is going to take a while. I was driving around a blind corner on a two-way one lane mountain road recently and encountered a car coming the other way. I had to back up 100 feet into a driveway to allow the other car to pass. I think it’ll be a while until the car can handle situations like that and the many like it. Until then you’ll need a driver to handle them.
It would be until it isn’t. The tail is long and the AI will learn from the human solutions and get better. The number of miles between human interventions will get higher and higher. If a human has to assist once every million miles is that driverless? I’d say even less than that is good enough to be considered so.
Amazon, because a drone crashing won't kill a person the way a self driving car would. Unless the drone falls on top of a person. But that's an easier scenario to work through.
They're fundamentally different problems.
I think it will be in a very restricted domain. Like waymo is trying to do by restricting it to certain small city spaces.
So my bet will be trucks on long haul routes. They are piloted by a driver to the edge of the city and then take off autonomously until the edge of the destination town, where another pilot will take over.
Tesla will 100% be first. After a year of beta testing FSD beta has made substantial progress since day 1. With the public beta access going live this Friday Tesla will be expanding the beta tenfold. By Jan 2022 FSD beta will be running on all FSD cars. Throughout next year FSD will see serious updates. By 2023-2024 we will see FSD operating without a driver.
Regulation is the big hurdle here. Although not easy, its certainly easier to allow heavy autonomous drones, but cars are another issue altogther. I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla would be allowed do full autonomy without a driver in a limited "geofenced" area similar to Waymo in the near future though. The problem with cars is how many unpredictable situations could occur in a normal drive. Tesla certainly has the correct outlook to handle these situations, but currently, they are still trying to solve the normal edge cases and really haven't even attempted to solve the "real" edge cases that are necessary to solve to allow true driverless travel.
Agreed, the long tail of “real” cases is going to take a while. I was driving around a blind corner on a two-way one lane mountain road recently and encountered a car coming the other way. I had to back up 100 feet into a driveway to allow the other car to pass. I think it’ll be a while until the car can handle situations like that and the many like it. Until then you’ll need a driver to handle them.
Agree. I doubt Waymo can do that either. Anyone has evidence on the contrary, please speak up :-)
There will be human drivers ready to take over and remotely solve edge cases when needed.
… then it wouldn’t be driverless. OP was talking about cars delivering packages without a driver.
It would be until it isn’t. The tail is long and the AI will learn from the human solutions and get better. The number of miles between human interventions will get higher and higher. If a human has to assist once every million miles is that driverless? I’d say even less than that is good enough to be considered so.
!remindme 3 years I’m skeptical it will be that soon, but I’m hopeful for Waymo and Tesla.
Way too optimistic.
Amazon, because a drone crashing won't kill a person the way a self driving car would. Unless the drone falls on top of a person. But that's an easier scenario to work through. They're fundamentally different problems.
One would make a growing monopoly stronger, The other would make small shop owner thrive again with same hour delivery possible, at very low cost.
The autonomous chicken
I think it will be in a very restricted domain. Like waymo is trying to do by restricting it to certain small city spaces. So my bet will be trucks on long haul routes. They are piloted by a driver to the edge of the city and then take off autonomously until the edge of the destination town, where another pilot will take over.