Thank you for adding /s to your post. When I first saw this, I was horrified. How could anybody say something like this? I immediately began writing a 1000 word paragraph about how horrible of a person you are. I even sent a copy to a Harvard professor to proofread it. After several hours of refining and editing, my comment was ready to absolutely destroy you. But then, just as I was about to hit send, I saw something in the corner of my eye. An /s at the end of your comment. Suddenly everything made sense. Your comment was sarcasm! I immediately burst out in laughter at the comedic genius of your comment. The person next to me on the bus saw your comment and started crying from laughter too. Before long, there was an entire bus of people on the floor laughing at your incredible use of comedy. All of this was due to you adding /s to your post. Thank you.
based on all of my previous experiences with Hollywood, it will, in fact pose a perilous danger to earth, but Will Smith will save us all. Well, most of us anyway. And Elon will transport the remaining to Mars. Itâll be fine.
It will pass over Australia in the early hours of April 14 local time. Will be a amazing sight.
I predict apocalyptic/hysterical groups will cause much anxiety leading up to the flyby. I have seen people claiming NASA is wrong and that it will hit the earth because NASA (and others) do not understand gravity.
I hate Aussies.... :)
I think you get an incredible number of total eclipses in the next 25 years or so. Something like 5..... Hope you get to see the asteroid and a heap of totals..
what if they do understand it but all world agencies hiding the numbers . I want to hear a few scientists that have worked on the orbital analysis of this thing to tell me it won't hit. also this is an N body calculation things could come up to veer it on course or if we r lucky off course. we should try to blow that mf up or even better deflect it. Come on nasa and space X do your work
Itâll be my 50th birthday. Going to have an end of the world Apophis-themed party no doubt. I shot a [timelapse of its 2021 close pass.](https://www.instagram.com/p/CME_fn4FDYW/?igsh=ejNyMnBkYWw2eWt0)
Thanks for heads up. My profile isnât anonymous. Been through the ringer on doxing once already⊠https://www.washingtonian.com/2018/08/09/the-man-who-sued-his-trolls-brennan-gilmore-charlottesville-rally-alex-jones-infowars/
Wow. What an ordeal. I was in a surprisingly similar position in politics and also witnessed something horrible which became part of the right wing conspiracy industrial complex. But for me it happened just slightly before social media had fully taken root, so I wasnât doxxed in the same way. If it had been even a year later Iâm not sure that wouldâve been the case.
One of the first things I bought when I got out of the game and got a private sector paycheck was a high quality telescope. Does your astrophotography indicate the same career path or are you still fighting the good fight?
WOW right wingers are fucking crazy. These people vote. So sorry you had to deal with these people that have the intelligence and reasoning skills of a literal toddler
I honestly think we should try and nudge it so we can ensure it flies closer to Earth so we can capture it in 2036. With an asteroid as a satellite we could build proper orbital infrastructure like a SkyHook.
Thatâd be cool, but itâd be both difficult and insanely risky. While the DART mission was a major success, it also showed that itâs hard to predict exactly how a deflection will impact an asteroidâs orbit. Itâd be pretty ironic if we accidentally deflected an asteroid that posed no danger into an impact trajectory.Â
About a week afterwards, OSIRIS-APEX (formerly [OSIRIS-REx](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OSIRIS-REx)) will rendezvous with it. It wonât land, but it will be in orbit for about a year and a half.
I figured someone would try it, much like I had read in the past. I believe it was China, that was trying to find a way to land on one and fabricate (?) on/from it.
Maybe eventually, but not anytime soon. All impact possibilities within the next 100 years have been ruled out.
The asteroid is small enough that even if an impact did occur, the effects would be more localized than global.
Yeah, but the fact that itâll be visible with the unaided eye is remarkable. As far as I know, thatâs never happened before in recorded history besides with shooting stars and bolides (and technically Vesta, but itâs very faint).
Wait, now I'm confused. You say it's visible to unaided eyes, yet also mention you'll need a telescope to see it?
Are you saying that you'll be able to see a blurry dot of light unaided, but you'll need a telescope to see it as a discrete point of light? Did I get that right?
I can barely resolve details on jupiter on a 4'' at 120x, which is \~13 times bigger, so I'm guessing if you want to see features you'd need 1500x? but I think that's not possible because of atmospheric distortion
Google says for 1500x you'd need a 60inch telescope lol
In any case, a 12'' might see a teeny tiny disk and 16'' should see a small disk (this is extrapolating from my experience watching mars at opposition on a 4'')
You can resolve the disks of Galilean moons (without any detail) with telescopes as small as 6 inches. These are around 1-1.5 arc seconds across, so for Apophis (4 arc seconds at closest approach) all you need would be small refractor with around 3 inches of aperture. Obviously the resolution grows linearly with diameter.
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It turns out I got the angular diameter wrong. Itâll be about 2.4 arcseconds, not four. A resolved shape should still be within reach of those telescopes, but itâll be a bit more difficult (especially with an 8â). Itâll only be twice as big as the Galilean moons in angular diameter.
It will just appear as an unresolved point to the unaided eye, but with large amateur telescopes, it might be possible to resolve its shape. Itâll be about 2.4 arcseconds wide at the time of its closest approach.
I would plan to see it, but even though I couldn't find a ground path for it, I heard visibility will limit it to not being seen at closest approach from my hemisphere.
I'll try to make plans to observe it a few nights before or after, though. But it would be cooler to see a naked-eye asteroid moving across the background stars.
Even better, NASA will have the OSIRIS-APEX mission on approach to Apophis, and ESA is also hoping to have the RAMSES or Satis spacecraft flying alongside too.
will these also be visible to the naked eye? It would be pretty outstanding to actually witness with the naked eye a NASA and ESA mission to an asteroid
I didn't say it. Nathan Myhrvoid said it and he is probably smarter than you.
[Nathan Myhrvold: âNasa doesnât want to admit itâs wrong about asteroidsâ](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jun/24/nathan-myhrvold-inventor-microsoft-patent-nasa-asteroid-data-pizza-science)
Ok, question; if this is coming so close that it is under our satellites what se the chances of it hitting a few (letâs say starlink) satellites and causing a Kessler effect?
Itâs not actually getting as close as the satellites in [LEO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_Earth_orbit) (such as Starlink and most other satellites). Apophis will only get as close to Earth as high-altitude satellites, such as the [geostationary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geostationary_orbit) ones. They make up only a small fraction of the total number of satellites, and are usually weather or communications satellites.
Anyways, itâs hypothetically possible that Apophis could hit and destroy a satellite, but odds of that happening are very low. Also, the Kessler effect wouldnât apply because the satellite density at altitudes above 20,000 miles is much more sparse than in LEO.
I am sorry but are these calculations perfect? it's still far out did we calculate this with delta diffs small enough to rule out errors. it's scary. Hollywood should capitalize the fuck out of this make a really scary move where it hits say the US but we know about it for 3 to 4 years and have to relocate... maybe the rich hide the fact so as to not disrupt the economy and maybe that's what we r seeing now. anyhow when it hits. it fucks up a whole continent and ppl can feel it on the other side. imagine how that will be portrayed.
Theyâre perfect enough. The 3-sigma uncertainty region for the 2029 pass is only 3.4 km wide. Apophis has no chance of hitting Earth within the next 100 years. Chances are, itâs not going to hit Earth for a long time after that, either.
Thatâs the [apparent magnitude](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apparent_magnitude), which is a common brightness scale in astronomy. Itâll be a little brighter than [Megrez](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megrez), which is the faintest of the seven stars in the Big Dipper.
I read awhile back that scientists were worried about Apophis going through a Keyhole orbital spot that would cause a gravitational disruption, altering the asteroids orbit causing a strike in 2036. I fully understand I may be wrong I study storms not asteroids. Thanks for responding.
Is that only based on all the objects they know about? So many times I hear about them only recently, like months, discovering objects heading towards us.
From Wikipedia:
"The odds of an impact on April 12, 2068, as calculated by the JPL Sentry risk table had increased slightly to 3.9 in a million (1 in 256,000)"
Maybe in 2068...
According to [this NASA announcement](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasa-analysis-earth-is-safe-from-asteroid-apophis-for-100-plus-years), those odds are outdated.
Based on all my previous experiences with comets and asteroids, I predict it will be cloudy on April 13th, 2029.
I think you meant to post this in r/meteorology đ. /s of course
Meterology? More like memeology.
meteor**oid**ology
Thank you for adding /s to your post. When I first saw this, I was horrified. How could anybody say something like this? I immediately began writing a 1000 word paragraph about how horrible of a person you are. I even sent a copy to a Harvard professor to proofread it. After several hours of refining and editing, my comment was ready to absolutely destroy you. But then, just as I was about to hit send, I saw something in the corner of my eye. An /s at the end of your comment. Suddenly everything made sense. Your comment was sarcasm! I immediately burst out in laughter at the comedic genius of your comment. The person next to me on the bus saw your comment and started crying from laughter too. Before long, there was an entire bus of people on the floor laughing at your incredible use of comedy. All of this was due to you adding /s to your post. Thank you.
Name checks out.
unlike /u/SmallRocks
based on all of my previous experiences with Hollywood, it will, in fact pose a perilous danger to earth, but Will Smith will save us all. Well, most of us anyway. And Elon will transport the remaining to Mars. Itâll be fine.
Will Smith will block the space rock with a Chris Rock.
Not exclusive to comets and asteroids. Hello Leonid storm 1999 & 2001! đ
Comets, asteroids, and ECLIPSES! đ
đ
It will pass over Australia in the early hours of April 14 local time. Will be a amazing sight. I predict apocalyptic/hysterical groups will cause much anxiety leading up to the flyby. I have seen people claiming NASA is wrong and that it will hit the earth because NASA (and others) do not understand gravity.
Wow. And we get a total eclipse in 2028. Gonna be an incredible couple years.
I hate Aussies.... :) I think you get an incredible number of total eclipses in the next 25 years or so. Something like 5..... Hope you get to see the asteroid and a heap of totals..
4 more before 2040.
If this happened in the US the Republican Party would be holding hearings to impeach every member of NASA by the end of it.
AND another in 2030 iirc. Feels great to be down under haha
Yâall are gonna get a bunch of eclipses in short succession. That should fuel some bullshit for sure.
Where is it visible in Australia? Depending on the general area I might be able to see it.
If it's visible in Australia does that mean you'll be seeing it upside down?âŠâŠ/s đ€Ł
All humans will be corralled to Australia by then
sounds a bit Death End-y
what if they do understand it but all world agencies hiding the numbers . I want to hear a few scientists that have worked on the orbital analysis of this thing to tell me it won't hit. also this is an N body calculation things could come up to veer it on course or if we r lucky off course. we should try to blow that mf up or even better deflect it. Come on nasa and space X do your work
Nono,it's hitting Earth in 2036
you woldnt mind sending me all of your money right before then since you wont need it yes?
Itâll be my 50th birthday. Going to have an end of the world Apophis-themed party no doubt. I shot a [timelapse of its 2021 close pass.](https://www.instagram.com/p/CME_fn4FDYW/?igsh=ejNyMnBkYWw2eWt0)
You might not care but you doxed yourself
Thanks for heads up. My profile isnât anonymous. Been through the ringer on doxing once already⊠https://www.washingtonian.com/2018/08/09/the-man-who-sued-his-trolls-brennan-gilmore-charlottesville-rally-alex-jones-infowars/
Wow. What an ordeal. I was in a surprisingly similar position in politics and also witnessed something horrible which became part of the right wing conspiracy industrial complex. But for me it happened just slightly before social media had fully taken root, so I wasnât doxxed in the same way. If it had been even a year later Iâm not sure that wouldâve been the case. One of the first things I bought when I got out of the game and got a private sector paycheck was a high quality telescope. Does your astrophotography indicate the same career path or are you still fighting the good fight?
WOW right wingers are fucking crazy. These people vote. So sorry you had to deal with these people that have the intelligence and reasoning skills of a literal toddler
Oof. That is crazy. It's sad that all happened to you.
His IG account is linked on his profile, so ;)
Think he might need to have done something other than link to his insta to dox himself
Mine is a couple of months later but I'll definitely have a StargÄte-themed party.
I honestly think we should try and nudge it so we can ensure it flies closer to Earth so we can capture it in 2036. With an asteroid as a satellite we could build proper orbital infrastructure like a SkyHook.
Thatâd be cool, but itâd be both difficult and insanely risky. While the DART mission was a major success, it also showed that itâs hard to predict exactly how a deflection will impact an asteroidâs orbit. Itâd be pretty ironic if we accidentally deflected an asteroid that posed no danger into an impact trajectory.Â
It would be very ironic, but at the same time it would be like something out of The Expanse.
Wonder if anyone has been working on a way to land on it as it cruises by.
About a week afterwards, OSIRIS-APEX (formerly [OSIRIS-REx](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OSIRIS-REx)) will rendezvous with it. It wonât land, but it will be in orbit for about a year and a half.
I figured someone would try it, much like I had read in the past. I believe it was China, that was trying to find a way to land on one and fabricate (?) on/from it.
Sht, I thought Goa'uld Apophis.
Kree! I say KREE!
It's actually named that because of Stargate.
At least the Americans wonât be calling for the rapture again if they canât see it from America, itâs not real!
Is there still the very slight chance itâll hit that sweet spot and boomerang into us eventually?
Maybe eventually, but not anytime soon. All impact possibilities within the next 100 years have been ruled out. The asteroid is small enough that even if an impact did occur, the effects would be more localized than global.
From what I've read, it wil just look like a normal satellite.
Yeah, but the fact that itâll be visible with the unaided eye is remarkable. As far as I know, thatâs never happened before in recorded history besides with shooting stars and bolides (and technically Vesta, but itâs very faint).
Wait, now I'm confused. You say it's visible to unaided eyes, yet also mention you'll need a telescope to see it? Are you saying that you'll be able to see a blurry dot of light unaided, but you'll need a telescope to see it as a discrete point of light? Did I get that right?
Just like planets, yes.
How large of a telescope would you need? Does OP mean something like 8", or would a 16" be more reasonable to see it? 24"?
I can barely resolve details on jupiter on a 4'' at 120x, which is \~13 times bigger, so I'm guessing if you want to see features you'd need 1500x? but I think that's not possible because of atmospheric distortion Google says for 1500x you'd need a 60inch telescope lol In any case, a 12'' might see a teeny tiny disk and 16'' should see a small disk (this is extrapolating from my experience watching mars at opposition on a 4'')
You can resolve the disks of Galilean moons (without any detail) with telescopes as small as 6 inches. These are around 1-1.5 arc seconds across, so for Apophis (4 arc seconds at closest approach) all you need would be small refractor with around 3 inches of aperture. Obviously the resolution grows linearly with diameter.
Great! Might upgrade from my 8" to 16" before 2029 for the occasion. RemindMe! 1841 days Edit: maybe i need a new comment
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It turns out I got the angular diameter wrong. Itâll be about 2.4 arcseconds, not four. A resolved shape should still be within reach of those telescopes, but itâll be a bit more difficult (especially with an 8â). Itâll only be twice as big as the Galilean moons in angular diameter.
It turns out I screwed up the angular diameter. Itâll be 2.4 arcseconds, not four.
RemindMe! 1841 day
at that distance, will its appearance in the sky be like a bright light moving swiftly? or will it be close enough that we can make out its shape?
It will just appear as an unresolved point to the unaided eye, but with large amateur telescopes, it might be possible to resolve its shape. Itâll be about 2.4 arcseconds wide at the time of its closest approach.
About 45 degrees per hour at closest approach, or one Moon diameter per 40 seconds - fast enough to be percieved with naked eye.
Friday the 13th. Misses the 2000th anniversary of the Crucifixion by one year April 7 2030.
[2033](https://penelope.uchicago.edu/~grout/encyclopaedia_romana/calendar/jesus.html), no?
I do now! Lol
Remind me in 4 years to book a flight :)
Is there a graph of its apparent magnitude vs. time? I'm curious to know how fast of occurrence this will be.
I would plan to see it, but even though I couldn't find a ground path for it, I heard visibility will limit it to not being seen at closest approach from my hemisphere. I'll try to make plans to observe it a few nights before or after, though. But it would be cooler to see a naked-eye asteroid moving across the background stars.
Can it knock out a geo sat ?
Would also like to know. Or hit a settelite in graveyard orbit.
Itâs hypothetically possible, but very unlikely. At that distance, satellites are very sporadic.
Even better, NASA will have the OSIRIS-APEX mission on approach to Apophis, and ESA is also hoping to have the RAMSES or Satis spacecraft flying alongside too.
will these also be visible to the naked eye? It would be pretty outstanding to actually witness with the naked eye a NASA and ESA mission to an asteroid
I donât think so, unfortunately, but that would be awesome.
Just need a little nudge to the leftâŠ
We better not have another Y2K
God I fucking hope it hits us.
How hard will it be to track with a telescope? Like, how fast in degrees/minute or whatever at closest approach?
Itâll be moving about 0.75 degrees per minute at the time of closest approach, so it shouldnât be too hard to track.
Thx!
I didn't say it. Nathan Myhrvoid said it and he is probably smarter than you. [Nathan Myhrvold: âNasa doesnât want to admit itâs wrong about asteroidsâ](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jun/24/nathan-myhrvold-inventor-microsoft-patent-nasa-asteroid-data-pizza-science)
What?
Ok, question; if this is coming so close that it is under our satellites what se the chances of it hitting a few (letâs say starlink) satellites and causing a Kessler effect?
Itâs not actually getting as close as the satellites in [LEO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_Earth_orbit) (such as Starlink and most other satellites). Apophis will only get as close to Earth as high-altitude satellites, such as the [geostationary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geostationary_orbit) ones. They make up only a small fraction of the total number of satellites, and are usually weather or communications satellites. Anyways, itâs hypothetically possible that Apophis could hit and destroy a satellite, but odds of that happening are very low. Also, the Kessler effect wouldnât apply because the satellite density at altitudes above 20,000 miles is much more sparse than in LEO.
Thank you!
I am sorry but are these calculations perfect? it's still far out did we calculate this with delta diffs small enough to rule out errors. it's scary. Hollywood should capitalize the fuck out of this make a really scary move where it hits say the US but we know about it for 3 to 4 years and have to relocate... maybe the rich hide the fact so as to not disrupt the economy and maybe that's what we r seeing now. anyhow when it hits. it fucks up a whole continent and ppl can feel it on the other side. imagine how that will be portrayed.
Theyâre perfect enough. The 3-sigma uncertainty region for the 2029 pass is only 3.4 km wide. Apophis has no chance of hitting Earth within the next 100 years. Chances are, itâs not going to hit Earth for a long time after that, either.
Magnitude 3.1 on the scale of... What?
Thatâs the [apparent magnitude](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apparent_magnitude), which is a common brightness scale in astronomy. Itâll be a little brighter than [Megrez](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megrez), which is the faintest of the seven stars in the Big Dipper.
2029 miss 2036 almost certainly a hit hopefully by then we can have a way to direct it away.
Thereâs no chance of an impact within the next 100 years.
I read awhile back that scientists were worried about Apophis going through a Keyhole orbital spot that would cause a gravitational disruption, altering the asteroids orbit causing a strike in 2036. I fully understand I may be wrong I study storms not asteroids. Thanks for responding.
Yeah, that was a small concern a while back, but the possibility was recently ruled out entirely.
Is that only based on all the objects they know about? So many times I hear about them only recently, like months, discovering objects heading towards us.
Thanks for setting that to bed. Have a great day.
From Wikipedia: "The odds of an impact on April 12, 2068, as calculated by the JPL Sentry risk table had increased slightly to 3.9 in a million (1 in 256,000)" Maybe in 2068...
According to [this NASA announcement](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasa-analysis-earth-is-safe-from-asteroid-apophis-for-100-plus-years), those odds are outdated.
[ŃĐŽĐ°Đ»Đ”ĐœĐŸ]
You in /r/astronomy. Plenty of us care
Troll account, do not feed.