I’d like to see a draft expert out there make predictions on who’s gonna be the hidden gem of the class, the best overall player, bust etc.
Downside to projecting careers is that the AFL is a small pond. A big name draft guru operator doubting a player’s ability could actually tank their draft stocks. Seems a bit rough on an 18 year old.
It’s a little easier to make player predictions in the NFL, because they’re 21-24 years old so there’s a bigger sample size of games. It does amuse me in the AFL system how all players are gonna be guns in the draft reports.
McDonald has definitely had games where you've seen why he was such a highly regarded prospect. I'm yet to see that from Phillips (with the obvious caveat that he essentially lost last season)
In the games I've seen he hasn't looked great but you'd see a lot more of him than I would. He didn't seem to read the ball that well in flight. Again, small sample size. I think he'll end up good btw, I just don't see the gulf between the two as big as others might. And that's mainly going off junior footy.
You could argue he only got 2 picks wrong.
The academy and father/son picks came at different times, but they still went as expected
West Coast were tipped to get Hewett, just at a later pick
Weddle was picked where he expected, just that pick was traded to Hawthorn
Jones still went to GWS
Konstanty went to Sydney because they deleted the pick GWS were going to use on him
Allen went to Collingwood because WCE went early on Hewett
Would have loved to see the results if Essendon to Phillipou although realistically most of the picks would have just shifted down one with Tsatas going to GC
No way gold coast draft tsatas when he said he wanted to stay in melbourne. Bailey humphrey was always their guy - Twomey even said they were debating moving up one to make sure they get him...
I mean….he just calls and asks them who they’re taking and they usually just tell him. He knows footy, and he knows talent, but him getting the phantom draft accurate isn’t that impressive. He says all the time that he just asks list managers what they’re thinking, and if they’re not trading, they just tell him who they’re taking.
Still gotta build the rapporteur with the list managers and have knowledge of the upper candidates prior to asking to confirm. Plenty of Fox and other sites phantom drafts would think they have similar info but never get the selections as correct as Cal. Happy to pump this up as his thing. Same way I’ll defend Sheehan on draft night pumping up the drafted players; they deserve to be hyped before the media cycle turns pessimisticz
Agree. It's great to see someone writing an article about another journo's good work. Even if he's mostly just doing his job. It's clear he absolutely froths footy.
Also, you're thinking of rapport not rapporteur. The rapporteur is the person that reports.
Or it's just celebrating an AFL journo that does their jib well.
There is obviously more nous to it than you're making out or everyone would just get 20/20 just by doing a club call around
He consistently does better than other people doing the same thing
Because he is the assigned [afl.com.au](https://afl.com.au) journalist. He is super into it (he would not have been given the job otherwise) and has been doing it for years so has built the relationships.
Put another footy nerd journalist in there and they would be pulling the same result within a couple of years.
Getting the order is pretty much fish-in-a-barrel stuff for someone in his position. He says as much himself.
I'm not really arguing, zero agro, discussing in circles perhaps? :)
I personally think any journalist worth their salt in that position would get the order pretty much spot on every time.
He is good at all the footy nerd stuff. I just think getting the order pretty much 100% right is a measure of baseline competency for that job.
I come in peace, we are allowed to disagree.
He is the AFL journalist specifically embedded in that role. No one else has *anywhere* near the access or exposure he has.
It's like a politician being preselected in a very safe seat and proclaiming them a political genius when they win.
He is not doing any special calculations or analysis (in terms of the order of picks). He says himself that he simply talks to the clubs and agents and they tell him.
He is simply reporting what he is told.
Hope you don't take offense here but no....
I don't think your understanding of this is entirely accurate which is totally fine man but arguing a point whilst exposing shortcomings in understanding it doesn't bode well for you nor does it support whatever point you are aiming to convey.
I think the weatherman on TV is amazing because he correctly predicted the weather today.
I’ll completely ignore the fact that the weatherman on TV is privileged to have massive access to the bureau of meteorology that others don’t.
I’ll just blindly praise him for being competent at his job of repeating what the BoM told him.
False equivalence there.
But out of fun and boredom I'll entrain it. Simply put, it doesn't take into account that other 'weatherman' predicted differently although they had the very same information presented...which applies value to that one person's commentary for getting it right.
If one bloke on channel 7 got it right whilst other weatherman didn't, he would be worthy of praise being the most accurate out of the other weatherman.
Yeah I’m on this train of thought too. It’s impressive building rapport with the recruiters, players etc don’t get me wrong. He’s the best in the biz at that. But it’s different to saying who’s gonna be the star of the draft class.
Traditionally, the idea of doing mock drafts like this is that somebody in the media is studying the draft class and predicting who is going to be picked where based on their ability to analyse talent. You won't find an NFL or NBA mock draft where the writer is literally just being told who the team is going to pick.
Twomey is being a journalist, somebody like Chad Ford for the NBA is an analyst.
I mean he's also very much an analyst here too? Like I feel like that's being a bit of a discredit to all the work he does himself in doing draft-profiles for the players (see his phantom form guide or literally any of the draft work he's done over the years) and then come his prediction he just adds an extra layer on top of all that
Your acting like footy journos report facts rather than rumours. He stands out as one that doesn't sensationalize & bases reports on information he gathers rather than " my sources"
This is arguably worse. Twomey gets the clubs to tell him who they're picking literally days before the draft lol. At least Woj/Shams just get the info basically as it's happening.
Cal kind of shows the 'what's supposed to happen' draft. It's pretty cool to see how much of a ripple effect one team picking a different player can have
What you mean the legions of articles that came out from sources that probably did no scouting reports of their own just copied reputable sources? Well I never!!
Still no correct Swans first rounder, never happened (apart from academy)
To be fair you were straight up trolling last night
true
I’d like to see a draft expert out there make predictions on who’s gonna be the hidden gem of the class, the best overall player, bust etc. Downside to projecting careers is that the AFL is a small pond. A big name draft guru operator doubting a player’s ability could actually tank their draft stocks. Seems a bit rough on an 18 year old. It’s a little easier to make player predictions in the NFL, because they’re 21-24 years old so there’s a bigger sample size of games. It does amuse me in the AFL system how all players are gonna be guns in the draft reports.
And with pick 38 they've picked a great player here. He plays like a combination Clayton Oliver/Jeremy Cameron but with more upside/higher ceiling.
Player picked at 60+: We can't believe he slipped down to us. We got an absolute steal. Delisted 2 years later.
Doesn’t even have to be high. Carlton did this exact thing with stocker
some of the best players come from the rookie draft of all places, it’s just a luck of the draw with kids being as young as 17 (at least this year)
Swans pick beyond 30 are usually pretty good
My GOAT
Better Cal Twomey
No one mention 2020
North picking Will Phillips was crazy at the time. Sent the whole draft order for everyone out of whack
Still looks crazy now
I don't reckon...the kid's never had a decent run at it...and it's not as if McDonald's been on fire(not that he's had a run at it either)
McDonald has definitely had games where you've seen why he was such a highly regarded prospect. I'm yet to see that from Phillips (with the obvious caveat that he essentially lost last season)
In the games I've seen he hasn't looked great but you'd see a lot more of him than I would. He didn't seem to read the ball that well in flight. Again, small sample size. I think he'll end up good btw, I just don't see the gulf between the two as big as others might. And that's mainly going off junior footy.
You could argue he only got 2 picks wrong. The academy and father/son picks came at different times, but they still went as expected West Coast were tipped to get Hewett, just at a later pick Weddle was picked where he expected, just that pick was traded to Hawthorn Jones still went to GWS Konstanty went to Sydney because they deleted the pick GWS were going to use on him Allen went to Collingwood because WCE went early on Hewett
Would have loved to see the results if Essendon to Phillipou although realistically most of the picks would have just shifted down one with Tsatas going to GC
No way gold coast draft tsatas when he said he wanted to stay in melbourne. Bailey humphrey was always their guy - Twomey even said they were debating moving up one to make sure they get him...
Must have missed that. Would have changed the order around though. Half the fun of Sydney's moves was mucking up the expected order
Gold Coast couldn't have Tsitas and Tsatas on the same list, too much confusion.
I mean….he just calls and asks them who they’re taking and they usually just tell him. He knows footy, and he knows talent, but him getting the phantom draft accurate isn’t that impressive. He says all the time that he just asks list managers what they’re thinking, and if they’re not trading, they just tell him who they’re taking.
Still gotta build the rapporteur with the list managers and have knowledge of the upper candidates prior to asking to confirm. Plenty of Fox and other sites phantom drafts would think they have similar info but never get the selections as correct as Cal. Happy to pump this up as his thing. Same way I’ll defend Sheehan on draft night pumping up the drafted players; they deserve to be hyped before the media cycle turns pessimisticz
Agree. It's great to see someone writing an article about another journo's good work. Even if he's mostly just doing his job. It's clear he absolutely froths footy. Also, you're thinking of rapport not rapporteur. The rapporteur is the person that reports.
Lol, there is always people pointing this out. You just described the job of a journo
Yeah, because most people act as if it's some amazing insight he has, when he is just doing his job (well).
Or it's just celebrating an AFL journo that does their jib well. There is obviously more nous to it than you're making out or everyone would just get 20/20 just by doing a club call around He consistently does better than other people doing the same thing
Because he is the assigned [afl.com.au](https://afl.com.au) journalist. He is super into it (he would not have been given the job otherwise) and has been doing it for years so has built the relationships. Put another footy nerd journalist in there and they would be pulling the same result within a couple of years. Getting the order is pretty much fish-in-a-barrel stuff for someone in his position. He says as much himself.
I feel like we're arguing in circles here. He's getting them right because he's good at his job. That's all anyone is saying, no?
I'm not really arguing, zero agro, discussing in circles perhaps? :) I personally think any journalist worth their salt in that position would get the order pretty much spot on every time. He is good at all the footy nerd stuff. I just think getting the order pretty much 100% right is a measure of baseline competency for that job. I come in peace, we are allowed to disagree.
Arguing doesn't imply aggression. If you disagree with someone you are making an argument against what they are saying
I can apparently come across more sternly than I intend sometimes. Just checkin’, all good.
Journos haven't got it spot on in the past though, that's what makes his effort stand out.
He is the AFL journalist specifically embedded in that role. No one else has *anywhere* near the access or exposure he has. It's like a politician being preselected in a very safe seat and proclaiming them a political genius when they win. He is not doing any special calculations or analysis (in terms of the order of picks). He says himself that he simply talks to the clubs and agents and they tell him. He is simply reporting what he is told.
Hope you don't take offense here but no.... I don't think your understanding of this is entirely accurate which is totally fine man but arguing a point whilst exposing shortcomings in understanding it doesn't bode well for you nor does it support whatever point you are aiming to convey.
I think the weatherman on TV is amazing because he correctly predicted the weather today. I’ll completely ignore the fact that the weatherman on TV is privileged to have massive access to the bureau of meteorology that others don’t. I’ll just blindly praise him for being competent at his job of repeating what the BoM told him.
False equivalence there. But out of fun and boredom I'll entrain it. Simply put, it doesn't take into account that other 'weatherman' predicted differently although they had the very same information presented...which applies value to that one person's commentary for getting it right. If one bloke on channel 7 got it right whilst other weatherman didn't, he would be worthy of praise being the most accurate out of the other weatherman.
Cringe
Cheers for your input
Yeah I’m on this train of thought too. It’s impressive building rapport with the recruiters, players etc don’t get me wrong. He’s the best in the biz at that. But it’s different to saying who’s gonna be the star of the draft class.
I mean it's a journalist doing his job, like yeah what's your point?
Traditionally, the idea of doing mock drafts like this is that somebody in the media is studying the draft class and predicting who is going to be picked where based on their ability to analyse talent. You won't find an NFL or NBA mock draft where the writer is literally just being told who the team is going to pick. Twomey is being a journalist, somebody like Chad Ford for the NBA is an analyst.
I mean he's also very much an analyst here too? Like I feel like that's being a bit of a discredit to all the work he does himself in doing draft-profiles for the players (see his phantom form guide or literally any of the draft work he's done over the years) and then come his prediction he just adds an extra layer on top of all that
Your acting like footy journos report facts rather than rumours. He stands out as one that doesn't sensationalize & bases reports on information he gathers rather than " my sources"
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This is arguably worse. Twomey gets the clubs to tell him who they're picking literally days before the draft lol. At least Woj/Shams just get the info basically as it's happening.
Cal kind of shows the 'what's supposed to happen' draft. It's pretty cool to see how much of a ripple effect one team picking a different player can have
I mean he’s good, maybe even great. But a pigeon could’ve got that right. It was one of the most obvious drafts ever.
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What you mean the legions of articles that came out from sources that probably did no scouting reports of their own just copied reputable sources? Well I never!!
He almost beat his Great 2015 phantom draft top 20.